Iprislusophone Countries Bulletin
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SEPTEMBER 22 IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin AUGUST 2011 dogged reformer, President Rousseff’s on August 24th Rousseff reportedly Brazil: Dilma’s disapproval rate has doubled to 25% pledged not to fire any more ministers. since her inauguration in January, Even if she can hold her coalition dilemma and the overall approval rate for her together, Dilma’s honeymoon is over, government recently slipped below and the attempt to fossick corruption the all-important 50% threshold. from government ranks is the reason. SEAN GOFORTH Elder political voices are charging To fall from the frying pan into the Professor, Coastal Carolina University, her with being naïve, incompetent, coals, Brazil’s economy is overheating. United States or both. While this is normal fare in Inflation is at the outer band that the democratic politics, given Rousseff’s central bank has set for tolerable lack of previous political experience it price rises, and the government Looking back on the momentous erodes her authority more than other could easily fall into a serious budget gains chalked by Brazil’s former leaders in such positions. deficit should commodity prices fall. President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva, On a practical level, it is making her Curbing consumer credit, mitigating it is easy to fall into the habit of coalition harder to manage. inflows of hot money, and diversifying projecting forward based on past In August the Party of the Republic left Brazil’s economy away from iron ore trends. Unfortunately, this is specious Rousseff’s coalition. It’s a relatively and soybeans will require a sustained reasoning. Brazil’s momentum could insignificant party whose most commitment by Rousseff’s team of easily carry the country off the tracks. salient leader was the Transportation truly skilled technocrats. The hard and thankless task of Minister that Rousseff fired. But As domestic pressures mount, Brazil’s moving Brazil forward is frustrating murmurs are growing that if more foreign policy is losing thrust. Lula President Dilma Rousseff. officials are sent packing, the PMDB positioned Brazil as Latin America’s Rousseff’s troubles span both the – the largest partner of Rousseff’s superpower, a major financier of domestic and international arenas. Worker’s Party – will break with the African development projects, and At home, the fight against corruption President. The PMDB is widely seen an arbiter of Iran’s nuclear program. has become a pointed political issue. as a beneficiary of graft across Brazil. He also set the stage for expansion Last month Agriculture Minister First, though, erstwhile allies into a new frontier: Palestinian Wagner Rossi got sacked, the fourth retaliated by leaking reports of independence. In December 2010, one cabinet minister to be replaced by corruption among Rousseff’s inner month before Dilma took office, Lula Rousseff in 72 days. Below the level of circle. José Dias, a political consultant recognized the state of Palestine along cabinet chief, the trend is even more in Brasília, likens Rousseff’s actions to Israel’s pre-1967 borders, causing a unsettling: nearly 100 officials from hitting a “wasp’s nest”. In an interview snowball of such declarations across the agriculture, tourism, and defense with Reuters, he goes on to say: “This South America. Since then, Brazilian ministries have been either fired corruption sweep is snowballing out foreign policy has gotten mired in or arrested on corruption-related of control, it’s extremely dangerous. efforts to chastise Chinese and US charges under Rousseff’s watch. She’s already lost her legislative monetary policies. Yet Rousseff’s attempt to “clean up” agenda, and now she risks growing Presuming Brazil’s economy does not is backfiring.R ather than appearing a instability”. With her allies howling, come apart at the seams and Rousseff IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 4 São Tomé and Príncipe: in the third attempt and after twenty years, a former autocrat returns to the presidency GERHARD SEIBERT Center of African Studies (CEA), ISCTE – University Institute of Lisbon On August 7th, in the run-off for the presidential elections, and transport of the ballot papers.1 In addition, the seventy-five years old Manuel Pinto da Costa, the Portuguese Electoral Administration sent two experts country’s first post-independence President, defeated to provide the CEN with technical assistance during the candidate for the ruling Independent Democratic Action electoral process. (ADI) Evaristo Carvalho (sixty-nine years old), with Only three of the initial fourteen candidates were 52.9% of the votes against 47.1%. Pinto da Costa has endorsed by political parties, while the others were become one of several formear African authoritarian all independent contenders. In early April, the major rulers who, after departure from power, came back to opposition party Liberation Movement of São Tomé the presidential palace several years later through the and Príncipe/Social Democratic Party’s (MLSTP/PSD) ballot box. Like Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria, Pinto da National Council nominated forty-five years old Aurélio Costa returned to the presidency after a lean period of Martins as the party’s presidential candidate. Martins, a twenty years becoming his country’s third democratically former journalist who made a fortune as a businessman elected President, succeeding Miguel Trovoada (1991- in Angola, had been elected as the MLSTP/PSD’s new 2001) and Fradique de Menezes (2001-2011). party president with 73% of the votes on January 15th In mid-April outgoing President Menezes fixed the date 2011. However, his nomination was fiercely contested by for the election of his successor on July 17. After two two other contenders for the party nomination: former consecutive terms in office, constitutionally he could Prime Minister and vice-president of the National not run for a third term. A few years ago, there was no Assembly Maria das Neves (fifty-two years old), and doubt for many in São Tomé and Príncipe that the most former Minister of Defense Elsa Pinto (forty-five years suitable candidate for his succession was Francisco da old), both claiming that the nomination process had Silva, the widely respected and popular president of the been irregular. However, both women’s criticisms were National Assembly (2006-2010). However, when he died immediately rejected as ungrounded by the MLSTP/ of cancer after a three-year struggle in April 2010 the PSD’s political commission. Consequently, Maria das question about Menezes’s succession was open again. Neves and Elsa Pinto both decided to run as independent In the months preceding the elections, the National candidates for the presidency. Electoral Commission (CEN) registered 13.842 new During a meeting of the ADI’s national council in early voters, increasing the total number of voters in the May, Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada, son of former small country from 78.796 in the legislative elections of president Miguel Trovoada, embarrassed his followers August 2010 to 92.638, of whom 8.598 were registered in by suggesting that he was available to run for the the four constituencies abroad, Angola (3.536), Portugal presidency. His intentions were immediately rejected (3.528), Gabon (1.389) and Equatorial Guinea (145). The by his own party members, who did not accept that CEN’s US$1 million budget for voter registration and Trovoada would abandon the government only eight the elections was co-financed by 40% by Japan, which months after his election as Prime Minister. A week made counterpart funds stemming from the sale of food later, the ADI nominated Evaristo Carvalho, president aid available, and UNDP with US$100.000. Portugal promised some US$25.000 for equipment, printing 1 Personal information from CEN president Víctor Correia (26 July 2011). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 5 of the National Assembly and the party’s vice-president, In 1996 and 2001 Pinto da Costa was his party’s nominee as presidential candidate. Known for his close ties with for the presidential elections. In 1996 he lost by a narrow the Trovoada family, Carvalho did not initially have any margin against incumbent Miguel Trovoada in the second intention of running for the presidency, but he quickly round. In 2001, he was clearly defeated by Fradique accepted Patrice Trovada’s choice. Still last year, in a de Menezes in the first round. In 1998, Pinto da Costa television interview, Carvalho had declared that he felt returned as chairman of the MLSTP/PSD, a position too old to occupy senior political positions and only he maintained until 2005 when he retired from active accepted becoming speaker of Parliament after having politics. His adversaries have frequently criticized Pinto been pressured by his party. da Costa, an economist trained The Democratic Convergence in former East Germany, for Party (PCD), the third largest Manuel Pinto da Costa, his lack of initiative in creating party, nominated forty-six businesses and jobs after he years old Delfim Neves, the who years ago admitted lost power in 1991. Given his party’s vice-president and age, this year’s election, twenty former Minister of Public political responsibility years after his departure from Works, as presidential for the mismanagement the presidency, was his last candidate. Delfim Neves, a chance to return to the highest successful businessman, had and economic collapse office. led Fradique de Menezes’s Pinto da Costa, who years ago election campaigns both of his country during admitted political responsibility in 2001 and 2006. During a for the mismanagement and meeting, the Democratic the repressive socialist economic collapse of his country Movement Force of Change during the repressive socialist (MDFM), the party closest one-party rule, claimed one-party rule, claimed that to President Menezes, that he felt an obligation he felt an obligation and duty decided to support Delfim to the people and could not Neves’s candidature, but and duty to the people watch passively as the country Menezes himself preferred broke down.