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The Threat of Impact WINTER 2008 THE THReat OF I I AM MSpecial PPACTACT Report on NEOs BEYOND THE SHUTTLE What it means for the ISS SHACKLETON DOME Envisioning A Lunar City BOOKS: ANDRew CHaiKIN’S A PASSION FOR MARS, THE RetURN TO LUNA SHORT stORY CONtest, and 50 YeaRS OF NASA ART DEALING WITH THE THREAT OF IMPACTBy Russell l. schweickaRt Detection, deflection, or deep impact? The near Earth object environment has remained virtu- would nevertheless be able to mitigate the effects of an ally constant for the past three billion years. impact by evacuation and other disaster preparedness measures. Our society has been vulnerable to the destructive power of impact events ranging from the 1908 Tun- guska event (in which the impact of an estimated 45- IMPACTS AND IMPACT PRECURSORS meter-diameter object destroyed 2,000 square kilo- A NEO impact will occur when the orbits of a NEO and meters of Siberian forest) to the 12-kilometer-diameter Earth intersect in space and both bodies reach that object responsible for the Chicxulub impact 65 million intersection at the same time. Most frequently, a NEO years ago, which is thought to have caused the extinc- threatening impact with Earth has experienced prior tion of the dinosaurs and 70 percent of all species alive close passes by Earth which have, in fact, set up the at the time. Such cosmic collisions occur infrequently subsequent impact. Close gravitational encounters with compared with a human lifetime, yet when they do the Earth can substantially change the orbit of a NEO, happen, they dwarf the natural disasters that are more and on occasion, cause a precise change which brings common in human experience. the NEO back several years later for a direct impact. Surprisingly, in the instance of this most devastating The small region near the Earth through which a NEO of natural disasters, humankind is far from helpless. must pass for such a resonant impact to occur is With modern-day telescopic and spaceflight capabili- referred to as a gravitational keyhole. Whenever a NEO ties, we can detect and predict potential impacts, and passes nearby, whether passing in front of or behind with adequate early warning we can deploy space sys- the Earth, it passes through a field of dozens of such tems capable of altering the orbit of threatening NEOs keyholes. Consequently, NEO deflection is most easily and force them to pass harmlessly by Earth, avoiding accomplished when it can be diverted from a precursor impact. Even if our discovery of the NEO were insuf- keyhole rather than from a direct impact. A deflection ficient to successfully divert it, a prepared society operation to avoid a keyhole target of a kilometer or so 30 AD ASTRA Winter 2008 threat.indd 30 11/20/08 12:42:05 PM Winter 2008 AD ASTRA 31 threat.indd 31 11/20/08 12:42:41 PM 32 AD ASTRA Winter 2008 threat.indd 32 11/20/08 12:43:14 PM in size is far less daunting than a deflection to avoid an Earth-sized target of several thousands of kilometers. DEFLECTION TECHNIQUES The diversion of a NEO on a path toward an Earth impact requires, depending on the specific circum- stances, either a precise, but modest orbit change, or the combination of a robust orbit change followed by a precise orbit trim. A successful deflection cam- paign is one in which both an immediate impact and all near-term return impacts are prevented. These otherwise would have. With a sufficient change in the conditions correlate with the robust and precise NEO velocity, the change in the arrival time is enough deflection requirements respectively. that the impact point has been avoided. Robust orbit change, i.e., orbit changes requiring A deflection can thus be seen as a process whereby substantial total impulse applied to the NEO, can be an impact point is shifted from its original location provided by either a kinetic impact (KI) or a nuclear to a point ultimately off the Earth’s limb, so that the stand-off explosion. Both technologies are available; NEO will fly past the Earth, and not into it. Should, KI was demonstrated conceptually during the 2005 for any reason, the deflection be only partially com- Deep Impact mission, albeit that impact was designed pleted, the NEO’s pathway will change, but it could for a different purpose. A nuclear stand-off explosion still hit the Earth at a different impact point. Whether has not been demonstrated, but the technology is the deflection is a continuous gravity tractor process arguably available for use. Both these techniques, or an impulsive kinetic impact or nuclear explosion, while capable of transferring substantial momentum a partial completion would therefore result in a new change to a NEO, cannot do so with adequate preci- impact point along the risk corridor. People not near sion to assure a fully successful deflection. the original impact point may then be at risk as a result of the action taken to deflect the NEO. Risk- A precise NEO orbit adjustment is conceptually avail- shifting is an inseparable element of risk elimination able via a number of techniques. The most simple in NEO deflection. Agreeing to deflect a NEO and and readily available concept is the gravitational deciding which direction the impact point should be tractor (GT), which provides precise adjustment shifted are clearly decisions that must be coordinated to the NEO orbit by “hovering” in close proxim- among the international community. ity to the NEO, using mutual gravity to change the NEO’s velocity. While the non-nuclear combination of a kinetic impact and gravity tractor will suffice for DEALING WITH THE THREAT OF IMPACT approximately 98 percent of the statistical impact What is needed to match the technical capability for threat, the use of nuclear means cannot be ruled out responding to the NEO impact challenge is an inter- without further technology development. The fre- national system of preparation, planning, and timely quency of NEO impacts which would require the use decision making. Because NEO impacts can occur of nuclear means is approximately 1 in 100,000 years anywhere on our planet and affect the entire inter- based on the current best estimate of NEO size-fre- national community, a collaborative, global response quency distribution. is necessary. International coordination is necessary in making any decision regarding a NEO, because of the low, but inevitable risk in the process of deflec- DEFLECTION IMPLICATIONS tion. Deflecting a NEO from impacting one population Above, a computer-enhanced, shaded The deflection process, regardless of the technology center could directly elevate the concern of another. relief image of the Yucatan Peninsula in used, can be understood as an operation which, by Mexico highlights a subtle, semicircular slightly adjusting the velocity of a NEO, will cause it to Furthermore, it is highly desirable that a decision trough at the Chicxulub impact site, arrive at the impact point slightly earlier or later than it process, with agreed criteria, policies, and proce- related to the extinction of dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Opposite page, a series of impact sites that include—clockwise FIRST STEPS from top photo—Meteor Crater in New telescopic resources coming into service within the next decade will dramatically increase the number of Arizona; Wolf Creek crater in western NEOs discovered and tracked. The U.S. Congress has charged NASA with discovering and tracking 90 percent Australia; the New Quebec crater in of all NEOs larger than 140 meters in diameter by 2020. While meeting this goal poses a considerable challenge, Quebec Canada; and Manicouagan it is clear that with new telescopes coming online, this goal will be approached in the 2020–2025 timeframe. In Reservoir in Quebec, which is located the process of achieving the 140-meter goal, many smaller but still dangerous NEOs will be discovered with the in an eroded ancient impact crater. number of such objects likely to exceed 300,000. Based on current empirical experience, the number of poten- Preceding pages: An artist’s illustration tially damaging NEOs with a non-zero probability of impact within the next 100 years is likely to exceed 10,000 of a massive asteroid belt in orbit around by this time. Of these NEOs with at least a small probability of impact over the next 100 years, many are likely to a star that is the same age and size as appear threatening enough to necessitate a decision of whether action should be taken to prevent an impact. our Sun. Winter 2008 AD ASTRA 33 threat.indd 33 11/20/08 12:45:58 PM 34 AD ASTRA Winter 2008 threat.indd 34 11/20/08 12:51:08 PM dures be established prior to the development of make a deflection decision at least 10–15 years ahead a specific threat in order to assure that minimiza- of impact. On top of that, deflection systems should be tion of risk to life and property prevail over compet- designed and flight-tested well in advance of their use ing national self-interests. A global, coordinated to ensure a successful deflection capability is available response should ensure that three logical, neces- and well understood. sary functions are performed. Most critical, however, is the requirement that the First, a warning network should be established. This international community be prepared to authorize a network would operate a global system of ground- deflection campaign in a timely manner. Failing to pro- and space-based telescopes to detect and track vide a decision-making framework before a threaten- potentially hazardous NEOs. The network should also ing NEO situation is discovered will risk lengthy argu- establish criteria for issuing NEO impact warnings.
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