Head-On Impact Deflection of Neas: a Case Study for 99942 Apophis
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Thermophysical Modeling of 99942 Apophis: Estimations of Surface Temperature During the April 2029 Close Approach
Apophis T–9 Years 2020 (LPI Contrib. No. 2242) 2069.pdf THERMOPHYSICAL MODELING OF 99942 APOPHIS: ESTIMATIONS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE DURING THE APRIL 2029 CLOSE APPROACH. K. C. Sorli1 and P. O. Hayne1, 1Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics – University of Colorado Boulder, CO 80303 ([email protected]) Introduction: The April 13, 2029 close approach purposes of calculating temperatures and thermal IR of the ~350-meter asteroid 99942 Apophis offers an fluxes. Our predictions for surface temperatures and unprecedented opportunity to observe a large near-Earth dynamical effects will be directly testable during the asteroid in detail with ground-based observatories. As Janus mission, with an anticipated launch date of 2022. one of the best-studied hazardous objects, with Though the model was constructed with the intent of additional near-miss flybys in coming decades, it is categorizing binary thermal and dynamical behaviors, crucial to planetary defense to understand its properties including binary YORP [5][6], it is easily adaptable to and potential perturbations to its orbit. solitary asteroids. Apophis has been the subject of extensive study, and This model begins by coupling a 1-d thermophysical will continue to be so for years to come. This existing model [7] to a 3-d shape model and computing facet-by- knowledge and the promise of new data makes it an facet temperatures of the surface and near subsurface excellent candidate for modeling subject to during the time period of Apophis’s 2029 close observational constraints. The 2029 close approach will approach. To calculate temperatures, the model is given have a sizable amplifying effect on Apophis’ orbital information about the incoming solar flux on each facet uncertainty, so small dynamical perturbations will be as a function of solar distance and is set to equilibrate required to understand both the conditions of the 2029 for 1 year to allow for subsurface temperature settling. -
An Estimate of the Flux of Apophis-Particle Meteors at Earth
Apophis T–9 Years 2020 (LPI Contrib. No. 2242) 2075.pdf An Estimate of the Flux of Apophis-Particle Meteors at Earth 1 1 2 Robert Melikyan , Beth Ellen Clark , Carl Hergenrother 1 D epartment of Physics and Astronomy, Ithaca College, Ithaca, NY, USA. 2 L unar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA. Near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis is meteoroid stream is propagated between 1900 - predicted to make a close encounter with Earth 2029 using an Apophis ephemeris that places the on April 13, 2029. This close encounter will asteroid at its most likely position for the 2029 bring Apophis within 6 Earth radii from our encounter. Unlike most meteoroid stream geocenter providing an excellent opportunity to evolution studies, our simulations release study and observe the asteroid and any particles from Apophis at a regular (~weekly) subsequent effects of the interaction. Here, we rate around its entire orbit, consistent with the bring to your attention the possibility that the Bennu observations. passage of Apophis will not be the only event worth observing. We predict a rain of Apophis Assuming similar particle production meteors that may be detectable to Earth’s meteor mechanisms at Apophis as observed at Bennu, monitoring systems. Apophis could be producing on order of 104 grams of material continuously throughout its NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission has orbit. Of that material, we assume 30% will recently shown that near-Earth asteroid (101955) escape on hyperbolic trajectories [6]. This Bennu has been continuously producing results in roughly 3500 grams of new material 4 cm-sized ejecta at rates of ~10 grams per orbit entering the Apophis meteoroid stream annually. -
Small Satellite Rendezvous and Characterization of Asteroid 99942 Apophis
SSC09-IV-3 Small Satellite Rendezvous and Characterization of Asteroid 99942 Apophis James Chartres Carnegie Mellon Innovations Laboratory, Carnegie Mellon University Silicon Valley Small Spacecraft Office, NASA Ames Research Center Building 202, Moffett Field, CA 94035; (650) 604-6347 [email protected] David Dunham, Bobby Williams Space Navigation and Flight Dynamics, KinetX, Inc. 2050 E. ASU Circle, Suite 107, Tempe, AZ 85284; (480) 829-6600 [email protected], [email protected] Anthony Genova, Anthony Colaprete, Ronald Johnson, Belgacem Jaroux Small Spacecraft Office, NASA Ames Research Center Building 202, Moffett Field, CA 94035; (650) 604-6347, (650) 604-2918, (650) 604-6699, (650) 604-6312 [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] ABSTRACT The Measurement and Analysis of Apophis Trajectory (MAAT) concept study investigated a low-cost characterization mission to the asteroid 99942 Apophis that leverage small spacecraft architectures and technologies. The mission goals were to perform physical characterization and improve the orbital model. The MAAT mission uses a small spacecraft free flyer and a bi-propellant transfer stage that can be incorporated as a secondary payload on Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles (EELVs), Atlas V or Delta IV launches. Using the innovative secondary architecture allows the system to be launched on numerous GTO or LTO opportunities such as NASA science missions or commercial communication satellites. The trajectory takes advantage of the reduced Delta-V requirement during the 2012- 2015 time frame, with a large flexible launch opportunity, from January to November 2012 and heliocentric injection occurs in April 2013. -
User Provided Data Product Upload of Herschel/PACS Near-Earth Asteroid Observations (Release Note)
Small Bodies: Near and Far NEA HSA UPDP upload User Provided Data Product upload of Herschel/PACS near-Earth asteroid observations (release note) Small Bodies: Near and Far; 687378 – SBNAF – RIA Cs. Kiss1, T.G. M¨uller2, and the SBNAF team 1Konkoly Observatory, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Konkoly Thege 15-17, H-1121 Budapest, Hungary 2Max-Planck-Institut f¨ur extraterrestrische Physik, Giessenbachstrasse 1, D-85748 Garching, Germany Version 1.0 (as of December 29, 2016) Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Herschel Space Observatory 2 3 Near-Earth asteroid observations 2 4 Data reduction and calibration 3 5Results 3 5.1 (101955) Bennu . 5 5.2 175706 (1996 FG 3) . 5 5.3 308635 (2005 YU 55) . 5 5.4 (162173) Ryugu . 6 5.5 (99942) Apophis . 6 References 7 Appendix 8 Summary of uploaded data products . 8 Summary of additional FITS keywords . 11 Page 1 Small Bodies: Near and Far NEA HSA UPDP upload 1 Introduction SMALL BODIES: NEAR AND FAR is a Horizon 2020 project (project number: 687378) that addresses critical points in reconstructing physical and thermal properties of near- Earth, main-belt, and trans-Neptunian objects (see the project webpage for details: http://www.mpe.mpg.de/ tmueller/sbnaf/). One of the goals of the SBNAF project is to produce a set of high-quality data products for Herschel observations of Solar System objects for an upload to the Herschel Science Archive (HSA). These new products will then be available for the entire scientific community, in parallel to the standard pipeline-processed Herschel archive data. -
The Atlantic Online | June 2008 | the Sky Is Falling | Gregg Easterbrook
The Atlantic Online | June 2008 | The Sky Is Falling | Gregg Easter... http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200806/asteroids Print this Page Close Window JUNE 2008 ATLANTIC MONTHLY The odds that a potentially devastating space rock will hit Earth this century may be as high as one in 10. So why isn’t NASA trying harder to prevent catastrophe? BY GREGG EASTERBROOK The Sky Is Falling Image credit: Stéphane Guisard, www.astrosurf.com/sguisard ALSO SEE: reakthrough ideas have a way of seeming obvious in retrospect, and about a decade ago, a B Columbia University geophysicist named Dallas Abbott had a breakthrough idea. She had been pondering the craters left by comets and asteroids that smashed into Earth. Geologists had counted them and concluded that space strikes are rare events and had occurred mainly during the era of primordial mists. But, Abbott realized, this deduction was based on the number of craters found on land—and because 70 percent of Earth’s surface is water, wouldn’t most space objects hit the sea? So she began searching for underwater craters caused by impacts VIDEO: "TARGET EARTH" rather than by other forces, such as volcanoes. What she has found is spine-chilling: evidence Gregg Easterbrook leads an illustrated that several enormous asteroids or comets have slammed into our planet quite recently, in tour through the treacherous world of space rocks. geologic terms. If Abbott is right, then you may be here today, reading this magazine, only because by sheer chance those objects struck the ocean rather than land. Abbott believes that a space object about 300 meters in diameter hit the Gulf of Carpentaria, north of Australia, in 536 A.D. -
Spex Upgrade for the IRTF
SpeX Upgrade for the IRTF 1. Overview and Motivation The objective of this proposal is to upgrade the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) 0.8–5.5 µm medium-resolution spectrograph, SpeX, with a higher performance near-infrared array and modern array controller. The upgrade will help keep SpeX scientifically productive as it moves into its second decade of operation by improving sensitivity and wavelength coverage, and reducing operational risk by replacing its obsolete array controller. This will involve replacing the current Aladdin 3 1024x1042 InSb array with a 2048x2048 Hawaii 2RG (H2RG) array and the ten-year-old Digital Signal Processor-based (DSP) array controller with an off-the-shelf configurable controller developed for the Pan-STARRS Project. The Motorola DSPs used in the original controller are no longer made and the continued functioning of the controller (and therefore SpeX) depends on the decreasing supply of spare DSP boards we hold (two). With the improvement in read noise, dark current and short wavelength QE (<1.2 µm) through the use of the H2RG array, the gain in sensitivity averages 0.75 magnitudes (or a factor of three in speed) in the short wavelength (0.8-2.5 µm) observing modes, while the larger format and smaller pixels increases simultaneous wavelength coverage and sampling (for better airglow emission line subtraction and telluric absorption feature division) in all observing modes. Apart from a new detector mount and wiring, no other changes to the cryostat are required. The optics are unchanged. To carry out the upgrade SpeX would be off the telescope for one observing semester (six months). -
Detecting the Yarkovsky Effect Among Near-Earth Asteroids From
Detecting the Yarkovsky effect among near-Earth asteroids from astrometric data Alessio Del Vignaa,b, Laura Faggiolid, Andrea Milania, Federica Spotoc, Davide Farnocchiae, Benoit Carryf aDipartimento di Matematica, Universit`adi Pisa, Largo Bruno Pontecorvo 5, Pisa, Italy bSpace Dynamics Services s.r.l., via Mario Giuntini, Navacchio di Cascina, Pisa, Italy cIMCCE, Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, CNRS, Sorbonne Universits, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Univ. Lille, 77 av. Denfert-Rochereau F-75014 Paris, France dESA SSA-NEO Coordination Centre, Largo Galileo Galilei, 1, 00044 Frascati (RM), Italy eJet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, 91109 CA, USA fUniversit´eCˆote d’Azur, Observatoire de la Cˆote d’Azur, CNRS, Laboratoire Lagrange, Boulevard de l’Observatoire, Nice, France Abstract We present an updated set of near-Earth asteroids with a Yarkovsky-related semi- major axis drift detected from the orbital fit to the astrometry. We find 87 reliable detections after filtering for the signal-to-noise ratio of the Yarkovsky drift esti- mate and making sure the estimate is compatible with the physical properties of the analyzed object. Furthermore, we find a list of 24 marginally significant detec- tions, for which future astrometry could result in a Yarkovsky detection. A further outcome of the filtering procedure is a list of detections that we consider spurious because unrealistic or not explicable with the Yarkovsky effect. Among the smallest asteroids of our sample, we determined four detections of solar radiation pressure, in addition to the Yarkovsky effect. As the data volume increases in the near fu- ture, our goal is to develop methods to generate very long lists of asteroids with reliably detected Yarkovsky effect, with limited amounts of case by case specific adjustments. -
The Case of 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) Steven R
Asteroids, Comets, Meteors Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 229, 2005 c 2006 International Astronomical Union D. Lazzaro, S. Ferraz-Mello & J.A. Fern´andez, eds. doi:10.1017/S1743921305006769 Potential impact detection for Near-Earth asteroids: the case of 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) Steven R. Chesley Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA email: [email protected] Abstract. Orbit determination for Near-Earth Asteroids presents unique technical challenges due to the imperative of early detection and careful assessment of the risk posed by specific Earth close approaches. This article presents a case study of asteroid 99942 Apophis, a 300-400 meter object that, for a short period in December 2004, held an impact probability of more than 2% in 2029. Now, with an orbit based on radar ranging and more than a year of optical observations, we can confidently say that it will pass safely by the Earth in 2029, although at a distance of only about six Earth radii from the geocenter. However, the extremely close nature of this encounter acts to obscure the trajectory in subsequent years, when resonant returns to the vicinity of the Earth are possible. In particular, an impact possibility in the year 2036 has a roughly 5% probability of persisting through the very favorable 2013 radar and optical observing apparition. In the event that the 2036 potential impact has not been eliminated by 2013, a precise characterization of the Yarkovsky accelerations acting on the asteroid may become an important part of the orbit estimation and impact prediction problem. Even so, the sixteen years available to effect a deflection from 2013 until 2029, after which the problem would become intractable, are sufficient to respond to the threat should a deflection effort become warranted. -
Astrophysics in 2006 3
ASTROPHYSICS IN 2006 Virginia Trimble1, Markus J. Aschwanden2, and Carl J. Hansen3 1 Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-4575, Las Cumbres Observatory, Santa Barbara, CA: ([email protected]) 2 Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, Organization ADBS, Building 252, 3251 Hanover Street, Palo Alto, CA 94304: ([email protected]) 3 JILA, Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder CO 80309: ([email protected]) Received ... : accepted ... Abstract. The fastest pulsar and the slowest nova; the oldest galaxies and the youngest stars; the weirdest life forms and the commonest dwarfs; the highest energy particles and the lowest energy photons. These were some of the extremes of Astrophysics 2006. We attempt also to bring you updates on things of which there is currently only one (habitable planets, the Sun, and the universe) and others of which there are always many, like meteors and molecules, black holes and binaries. Keywords: cosmology: general, galaxies: general, ISM: general, stars: general, Sun: gen- eral, planets and satellites: general, astrobiology CONTENTS 1. Introduction 6 1.1 Up 6 1.2 Down 9 1.3 Around 10 2. Solar Physics 12 2.1 The solar interior 12 2.1.1 From neutrinos to neutralinos 12 2.1.2 Global helioseismology 12 2.1.3 Local helioseismology 12 2.1.4 Tachocline structure 13 arXiv:0705.1730v1 [astro-ph] 11 May 2007 2.1.5 Dynamo models 14 2.2 Photosphere 15 2.2.1 Solar radius and rotation 15 2.2.2 Distribution of magnetic fields 15 2.2.3 Magnetic flux emergence rate 15 2.2.4 Photospheric motion of magnetic fields 16 2.2.5 Faculae production 16 2.2.6 The photospheric boundary of magnetic fields 17 2.2.7 Flare prediction from photospheric fields 17 c 2008 Springer Science + Business Media. -
Planetary Defense Space System Design, MAE 342, Princeton University Robert Stengel
2/12/20 Planetary Defense Space System Design, MAE 342, Princeton University Robert Stengel § Asteroids and Comets § Spacecraft § Detection, Impact Prediction, and Warning § Options for Minimizing the Hazard § The 2020 UA Project Copyright 2016 by Robert Stengel. All rights reserved. For educational use only. http://www.princeton.edu/~stengel/MAE342.html 1 1 What We Want to Avoid 2 2 1 2/12/20 Asteroids and Comets DO Hit Planets [Comet Schumacher-Levy 9 (1994)] • Trapped in orbit around Jupiter ~1929 • Periapsis within “The Roche Limit” • Fragmented by tidal forces from 1992 encounter with Jupiter 3 3 Asteroid Paths Posing Hazard to Earth 4 4 2 2/12/20 Potentially Hazardous Object/Asteroid (PHO/A) Toutatis Physical Characteristics PHA Characteristics (2013) § Dimensions: 5 x 2 x 2 km § Diameter > 140 m § Mass = 5 x 1013 kg § Passes within 7.6 x 106 § Period = 4 yr km of Earth (0.08 AU) § Aphelion = 4.1 AU § > 1,650 PHAs (2016) § Perihelion = 0.94 AU 5 5 Comets Leave Trails of Rocks and Gravel That Become Meteorites on Encountering Earth’s Atmosphere • Tempel- Temple-Tuttle Tuttle – Period ~ 33 yr – Leonid Meteor Showers each Summer Tempel- • Swift-Tuttle Tuttle Orbit – Period ~ 133 yr – Perseid Meteor Leonid Showers each Summer Meteor Perseid Meteor 6 6 3 2/12/20 Known Asteroid “Impacts”, 2000 - 2013 7 7 Chelyabinsk Meteor, Feb 15, 2013 Chelyabinsk Flight Path, 2013 • No warning, approach from Sun • 500 kT airburst explosion at altitude of 30 km • Velocity ~ 19 km/s (wrt atmosphere), 30 km/s (V∞) • Diameter ~ 20 m • Mass ~ 12,000-13,000 -
Preliminary Design of a Crewed Mission to Asteroid Apophis in 2029-2036
Preliminary Design of a Crewed Mission to Asteroid Apophis in 2029-2036 Sam Wagner, ∗ Dan Zimmerman, y and Bong Wie z Asteroid Deflection Research Center-Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA A crewed mission to a near-Earth object (NEO) as early as 2025 was announced by President Obama on April 15th, 2010 at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. This was announced as part of NASA’s new space exploration plan after announcing plans to cancel the Constellation program. The extensive requirements of such a mission would help NASA to evaluate the performance of future space systems prior to sending a crewed mission to Mars. Apophis, an asteroid of particular interest due to its once high impact probability, would be a logical choice for a manned mission in the near future. This mission could provide a valuable NEO research opportunity to determine the composition of Apophis. This data that would be extremely useful if Apophis were to pass through the gravitational keyhole in 2029, which would then require a deflection mission. This paper focuses on mission design as well as the system architecture that would be required for this mission to Apophis. The primary mission will be a 180 day mission in the 2028-2029 range during the Earth-Apophis close encounter on April 13th, 2029. In an effort to reduce mission requirements mission analysis for missions up to 1 year will be performed as well. In this paper a crewed mission will be designed for a fictional scenario where Apophis has gone through the 2029 keyhole, which puts it on a resonant orbit that will collide with the earth on April 13th, 2036. -
Advanced Mission Planning and Impact Risk Assessment of Near-Earth Asteroids in Application to Planetary Defense George Vardaxis Iowa State University
Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Graduate Theses and Dissertations Dissertations 2015 Advanced mission planning and impact risk assessment of near-Earth asteroids in application to planetary defense George Vardaxis Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd Part of the Aerospace Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Vardaxis, George, "Advanced mission planning and impact risk assessment of near-Earth asteroids in application to planetary defense" (2015). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 14468. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd/14468 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Dissertations at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Advanced mission planning and impact risk assessment of near-Earth asteroids in application to planetary defense by George Vardaxis A dissertation submitted to the graduate faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Major: Aerospace Engineering Program of Study Committee: Bong Wie, Major Professor John Basart Ran Dai Ping Lu Peter Sherman Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 2015 Copyright c George Vardaxis, 2015. All rights reserved. ii DEDICATION I would like to thank my parents, brothers, and all my family and friends who have helped me throughout my life. Without your help and support this would not have been possible. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES . vi LIST OF FIGURES . viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . xiv CHAPTER 1.