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Impact Assessment of Privatisation in Serbia

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Impact Assessment of Privatisation in Serbia Impact Assessment of Privatisation in Serbia Belgrade, 27 October 2005 Belgrade, 27 October 2005 2 Impact assessment of privatisation in Serbia List of Acronyms and Abreviations AA Annual Average BELEX Belgrade Stock Exchange BIS Bank for International Settlements C Consumption CPI Consumer Price Index DB Data Base DEM. Deutsche Mark Din. Dinars EU European Union EUR EURO EUROSTAT Statistical Office of the European Communities G Public (Governmental) Consumption GDP Gross Domestic Product GMP Gross Material Product HDI Human Development Index ILO International Labour Organisation Kosmet Kosovo and Metohija (Southern Serbian Province under UN Protectorate) M Million MoF Ministry of Finance NBS National Bank of Serbia NES National Employment Service p.c. Per Capita PA Privatisation Agency of Republic of Serbia 3 PI Poverty Index PP DB Post Privatisation Data Base PP(P) Purchasing Power (Parity) R&D Research and Development RDB Republican Development Buroau RPI Retail Price Index S Savings SC Solvency Centre SDF Serbian Development Fund SNA System of National Accounts SOE Socially-owned enterprise SORS Statistical Office of Republic of Serbia TF Transition Fund (Expenditure Item of the Serbian Budget) X Exports YE Year End Exchange Rates Used Indicator Source Measurement 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Exchange Din/US$ NBS 66.364 64.398 57.585 58.381 Rates-AA Annual Average Nominal Exchange Din/EUR NBS 8.016 13.058 26.666 53.500 59.448 60.678 65.055 72.567 Rates-AA Annual Average Note: For 1997 and 1998 Annual Average ECU/DEM exchange rate were used (unofficial market rate in Din. was taken) Impact assessment of privatisation in Serbia PREFACE ....................................................................................................7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................8 1. INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................9 2. FRAMING OF THE PRIVATISATION IN SERBIA.............................................................. 11 2.1. A Brief Overview of Serbia’s Privatisation Schemes ............................................... 12 2.2. The 2001 Privatisation Law and privatisation since 2001......................................... 13 2.3. Summary results of privatisations under 1997 and 2001.......................................... 14 3. OBJECTIVES, ASUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY ......................................................... 18 3.1. Facts, Assumptions and Methodological Caveats................................................... 19 3.1.1. Structure of ownership: ...............................................................................19 3.1.2. Structure of the economy: ............................................................................19 3.1.3. Sources of data: ........................................................................................19 3.1.4. Indicators: ...............................................................................................20 3.2. Criteria for the analysis................................................................................ 21 3.2.1. Choice of GMP...........................................................................................21 3.2.2. Employment and investment .........................................................................22 3.2.3. Capital market..........................................................................................22 3.2.4. Welfare...................................................................................................22 3.3. Analysis of privatised enterprises .................................................................... 22 4. IMPACT OF PRIVATISATION AT COMPANY LEVEL .......................................................... 24 4 4.1. Background............................................................................................... 25 4.2. Objectives................................................................................................ 26 4.3. Sampling.................................................................................................. 26 4.4. Survey..................................................................................................... 26 4.5. Analysis methodology .................................................................................. 27 4.6. Results of the analysis.................................................................................. 28 4.6.1. Efficiency and performance...........................................................................28 4.6.2. Modernisation and restructuring .....................................................................34 4.6.3. Employment .............................................................................................35 4.6.4. Influence of changes in ownership and in management ..........................................38 4.7. Conclusions............................................................................................... 40 5. IMPACT OF PRIVATISATION AT SECTORAL LEVEL ......................................................... 41 5.1. Introduction.............................................................................................. 42 5.1.1. Methodology .............................................................................................42 5.1.2. Results on each sector .................................................................................43 5.2. Textile industry......................................................................................... 45 5.2.1. Definition of the textile industry.....................................................................45 5.2.2. Relevant state of affairs in the sector ..............................................................47 5.2.3. Analysis of the impact of privatisation on the textile industry..................................47 5.2.4. Conclusions .............................................................................................. 52 Impact assessment of privatisation in Serbia 5.3. Chemical industry....................................................................................... 53 5.3.1. Definition of the chemical industry..................................................................53 5.3.2. Analysis of the impact of privatisation on the chemical industry...............................56 5.3.3. Conclusions .............................................................................................. 61 5.4. Food industry............................................................................................ 62 5.4.1. Definition of the food industry .......................................................................62 5.4.2. Analysis of the impact of privatisation on the food industry ....................................65 5.4.3. Conclusions ..............................................................................................70 5.5. Construction industry................................................................................... 72 5.5.1. Definition of the construction industry .............................................................72 5.5.2. Analysis of the impact of privatisation on the construction industry...........................74 5.5.3. Conclusions .............................................................................................. 79 5.6. Trade sector.............................................................................................80 5.6.1. Definition of the trade sector ........................................................................80 5.6.2. Analysis of the impact of privatisation on the trade sector......................................83 5.6.3. Conclusions ..............................................................................................88 5.7. Production of non-metallic minerals industry ......................................................89 5.7.1. Definition of the production of non-metallic minerals industry.................................89 5.7.2. Analysis of the impact of privatisation on the non-metallic minerals industry ...............91 5.7.3. Conclusions ..............................................................................................95 5.8. Common conclusions................................................................................... 96 6. IMPACT OF PRIVATISATION AT REGIONAL LEVEL ......................................................... 98 6.1. Introduction..............................................................................................99 5 6.2. Extent of privatisation ................................................................................100 6.2.1. Privatisation of 1997 &. Privatisation of 2001.................................................... 100 6.2.2. Proceeds from sales by the Privatisation Agency................................................ 102 6.2.3. Share Fund and Belex ................................................................................ 103 6.3. Privatisation and Regional Economic Growth......................................................103 6.3.1. GMP Dynamics by Regions ........................................................................... 104 6.3.2. National Income broken down by types of Ownership .......................................... 105 6.3.3. Regional Growth Dynamics of Privatised firms................................................... 106
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