Capital Markets Union High Level Forum Recommendations

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Capital Markets Union High Level Forum Recommendations A NEW VISION FOR EUROPE’S CAPITAL MARKETS Final Report of the High Level Forum on the Capital Markets Union Disclaimer This report is prepared by the High Level Forum set up by the European Commission. The views reflected in this Report are the views of the members of the Forum. They do not constitute the views of the European Commission or its services, nor provide an indication to the policy approach that the European Commission may take in its future work on the Capital Markets Union. An interactive version of this publication, containing links to online content, is available in PDF format at: https://europa.eu/!gU33Hm scan QR code to download A new Vision for Europe’s capital markets Final Report of the High Level Forum on the Capital Markets Union June 2020 CREDITS All images © European Union, except: cover: © Hurca! - stock.adobe.com pages 4, 8: © Hurca! - stock.adobe.com page 11: © apinan - stock.adobe.com page 15: © IRStone - stock.adobe.com page 18: © vectorpouch - stock.adobe.com page 22: © bizvector - stock.adobe.com page 27: © VectorMine - stock.adobe.com A NEW VISION FOR EUROPE’S CAPITAL MARKETS - FINAL REPORT Contents PREFACE . 2 1 . THE EUROPEAN UNION NEEDS CAPITAL MARKETS UNION MORE THAN EVER . 4 2 . THE PLAN . 8 A . Creating a vibrant and competitive business environment . 11 B. Building stronger and more efficient market infrastructure . 15 C . Fostering retail investments in capital markets . 18 D . Going beyond boundaries across the internal market . 22 ACCOMPANYING MEASURES AND PRINCIPLES . 26 THE OVERALL BENEFITS OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS . 27 SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS . 28 ANNEX - CMU HLF RECOMMENDATIONS . 30 A . Creating a vibrant and competitive business environment . 30 1. Recommendation on an EU Single Access Point............................................30 2. Recommendation on European Long-term Investment Funds................................37 3. Recommendation on encouraging insurers to providing more financing for capital markets .....41 4. Recommendation on market making and re-equitisation of markets .........................46 5. Recommendation on scaling up the European securitisation market..........................52 6. Recommendation on improving the public markets ecosystem ..............................66 7. Recommendation on crypto/digital assets and tokenisation .................................74 B. Building stronger and more efficient market infrastructure . 77 8. Recommendation on central securities depositories regulation ..............................77 9. Recommendation on shareholder identification, exercise of voting rights and corporate actions .79 10. Recommendation on cloud ............................................................82 C . Fostering retail investments in capital markets . 85 11. Recommendation in the area of pensions ...............................................85 12. Recommendation on financial literacy/education and investment culture ....................89 13. Recommendation in the area of distribution, advice, disclosure.............................98 14. Recommendation on open finance .................................................... 109 D . Going beyond boundaries across the internal market . 112 15. Recommendation on withholding tax ................................................. 112 16. Recommendation on insolvency ...................................................... 114 17. Recommendation on supervision ..................................................... 116 THE HIGH LEVEL FORUM - MEMBERS . 121 THE HIGH LEVEL FORUM - OBSERVERS . 123 A NEW VISION FOR EUROPE’S CAPITAL MARKETS - FINAL REPORT Preface Bringing about an EU Capital Market, i.e. a true single market for capital for everybody, remains, rightly so, a priority for those who want to make Europe stronger, resilient and dynamic. With Covid 19 it is now urgent in order to rebuild the European economy. The High Level Forum has brought together 28 experts from a wide spectrum of professional and national backgrounds to recommend an array of measures that should get us closer to one single market for savings, investments and raising capital for our dynamic firms so that they can grow in Europe. The report contains not abstract ideas or high level principles that should be achieved, but very precise and clear recommendations on what should be done in order to move Europe forward. We emphasise that this is not a menu from which one can order two or three courses, and go home satisfied. The 17 clusters of measures are mutually reinforcing, and dependent on each other. Why, one may ask, is a functioning capital market even more important now as the EU economy is trying to recover from a global health crisis. Why was it important before COVID 19, and what has changed? Europe has for decades struggled to make its capital markets work as one, and to a large degree still has 27 capital markets, some fairly large, and quite a number rather small. The largest market, the UK, has left the EU, making the financing of the EU economy dependent on a jurisdiction where rules may well start diverging in the medium term. With the UK having left a question for politicians is how much of this market one wants onshore, and how much offshore. The European banking system, although better capitalised and more resilient, is not sufficient by itself to provide the amount of credit the EU economy will need to recover from the crisis. Without stronger market financing, economic growth will remain subdued. Europe’s innovative firms have over decades grown from small to medium, and more often than not had to leave Europe to find the finance that could facilitate their further growth. 27 separate markets do not provide that in adequate form and depth. European citizens as long-term savers and individual investors – who are one of the primary funders of the capital markets and of the economy - too often get poor net long term real returns. Providing cross-border access to simple, comparable, cost- efficient and transparent products that provide sustainable value for money is key for savings, and key for investments. 2 A NEW VISION FOR EUROPE’S CAPITAL MARKETS - FINAL REPORT Climate change remains at the forefront of our concerns. Financing requirements dwarf the possibilities that governments on their own have, and will have. With a deep and dynamic capital market, the joint financing capacity will facilitate a green transition that works for our citizens. This is, of course, not the only major challenge our finances are facing. Pension sustainability in times of high and rising government liabilities requires market- based pension systems that supplement state systems. Only with the two working together can those who will be retiring in the coming decades have the retirement benefits they are today expecting. COVID 19 has ravaged the global economy, and Europe is well poised to emerge over time from this crisis in a balanced manner. Governments and European institutions have reacted well to these challenges. However, regional and social effects may well be quite unequal, also in view of the huge amounts of funds required. Again, our recovery will not come about as hoped if we do not harness the power of all national capital markets for financing the growth of the future. We do not want this to be only growth of Member State A or Member State B – we want this to be European growth. With the collective power of integrated capital markets that work for all this can come about for all. Without, we have our doubts. We therefore commend this report to the Commission to make wise proposals, to the European Parliament and the Council to be proponents of a capital market that works, also in legislative reality. And to all who have an interest and a stake in this to promote our aim. In short, a European Capital Markets Union, a savings and investment union, that works for all. I would like to sincerely thank, in my name and that of my co-chairs, colleagues in FISMA who have assisted us with enthusiasm. The range and depth of their knowledge has been impressive. We would also like to thank representatives of the institutions that have participated as observers, who also have added tremendously to the quality of our discussions, as have a number of guests whom we invited for specific technical discussions. Thomas WIESER Chair of the High Level Forum on Capital Markets Union 3 1. The European Union needs Capital Markets Union more than ever Capital Markets Capital Markets Union has been essential investment flows throughout Union needed for needed in the EU for many reasons, for the EU economy benefitting citizens and many reasons, for many years. many years. It is long overdue. Since business. we now face the biggest economic crisis in peacetime in 90 years, it is First responses to the COVID-19 Effective capital markets that work now vital and extremely urgent to outbreak have relied on a massive for all – more accomplish it. injection of public support to the real urgent than ever. economy and to the most affected parts The importance of effective capital of the population by the EU, Member markets that work for all - for the future States’ governments and the European financial well-being of European citizens Central Bank. and for the growth and development of EU companies and economies - has Given the emerging depth of economic been recognised for some time, but is retrenchment, more public intervention more urgent than ever. The impact of the will be needed, including through the EU COVID-19 outbreak will last for years.
Recommended publications
  • European Stability Mechanism
    ~FACTSHEET~ European Stability Mechanism The Treaty establishing the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) has been ratified by all 17 euro area member states. It entered into force on 27 September 2012, nine months earlier than initially foreseen 1. The treaty was signed by euro area member states on 2 February 2012. The ESM board of governors held its inaugural meeting on 8 October 2012. The ESM is an intergovernmental institution based in Luxembourg, set up to provide financial assistance to eurozone member states experiencing, or being threatened by, severe financing problems, if this is indispensable for safeguarding financial stability in the euro area as a whole. The initial maximum lending capacity of the ESM is set at €500 billion. This is achieved with subscribed capital of €700 billion (€ 80 billion paid-in capital, the rest callable). A first version of the treaty was signed on 11 July 2011, but it was subsequently modified to incorporate decisions taken by the heads of state and government of the euro area on 21 July and 9 December 2011 to improve the effectiveness of the mechanism. As a permanent mechanism, the ESM will take over the tasks currently fulfilled by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). With the accelerated entry into force, the ESM will now operate alongside the EFSF for nine months. In March 2012, the Eurogroup agreed to raise the overall ceiling for ESM/EFSF lending to €700 billion 2. Already during the transitional period, until mid-2013, the ESM will be the main instrument for the financing of new programmes.
    [Show full text]
  • Smoke with Fire: Financial Crises and the Demand for Parliamentary Oversight in the European Union
    Smoke with Fire: Financial Crises and the Demand for Parliamentary Oversight in the European Union Federica Genovese Gerald Schneider University of Essex University of Konstanz [email protected] [email protected] January 21, 2020 Abstract The handling of the 2008 financial crisis has reinforced the conviction that the European Union (EU) is undemocratic and that member states are forced to delegate overwhelming power to a supranational technocracy. However, European countries have engaged with this alleged power drift differently, with only a few member states demanding more parliamentary scrutiny of EU institutions. This article develops a political economy explanation for why only some states have enforced mechanisms to monitor the EU more closely. Our theory focuses on the role of the crisis and the impact of fiscal autonomy in countries outside and inside currency arrangements such as the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We argue that, in the aftermath of a severe economic shock, member states outside the EMU possess more monetary and fiscal resources to handle the crisis. These would then demand oversight of EU decision-making if their fiscal sustainability depends on the Union. By contrast, Eurozone states that need policy changes cannot address the crisis independently or initiate reforms to scrutinize the EU. Hence, we argue that during the heated moments of severe economic downturns, parliaments in Eurozone countries discuss supranational supervision rarely. As these legislatures have nevertheless to give in to the popular demand for EU control, they express support for more EU supervision in the infrequent times of debate. We provide evidence for our theory with a cross-national analysis of EU oversight institutions, and a new original dataset of parliamentary debates during the Eurozone crisis.
    [Show full text]
  • Our European Future OUR EUROPEAN
    Our European Future European Our OUR EUROPEAN ChartingFUTURE a Progressive Course in the World Ideas contributed by László Andor, Vytenis Povilas Andriukaitis, François Balate, Peter Bofinger, Tanja A. Börzel, Mercedes Bresso, Stefan Collignon, Olivier Costa, Emma Dowling, Saïd El Khadraoui, Gerda Falkner, Georg Fischer, Diego Lopez Garrido, Hedwig Giusto, Giovanni Grevi, Ulrike Guérot, Paolo Guerrieri, Lukas Hochscheidt, Robin Huguenot-Noël, Guillaume Klossa, Halliki Kreinin, Michael A. Landesmann, Jean-François Lebrun, Jo Leinen, Lora Lyubenova, Justin Nogarede, Vassilis Ntousas, Alvaro Oleart, Carlota Perez, David Rinaldi, Barbara Roggeveen, Vivien A. Schmidt, Ania Skrzypek, Mario Telò and Britta Thomsen edited by Maria João Rodrigues OUR EUROPEAN FUTURE The Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) is the think tank of the progressive political family at EU level. Our mission is to develop innovative research, policy advice, training and debates to inspire and inform progressive politics and policies across Europe. We operate as hub for thinking to facilitate the emergence of progressive answers to the chal- lenges that Europe faces today. FEPS works in close partnership with its members and partners, forging connections and boosting coherence among stakeholders from the world of politics, academia and civil society at local, regional, national, European and global levels. Today FEPS benefits from a solid network of 68 member organisations. Among these, 43 are full members, 20 have observer status and 5 are ex-of- ficio members. In addition to this network of organisations that are active in the promotion of progressive values, FEPS also has an extensive network of partners, including renowned universities, scholars, policymakers and activists. Our ambition is to undertake intellectual reflection for the benefit of the progressive movement, and to promote the founding principles of the EU – freedom, equality, solidarity, democracy, respect of human rights, funda- mental freedoms and human dignity, and respect of the rule of law.
    [Show full text]
  • Bankwatch Mail March 2013 CEE Bankwatch Network's Newsletter on International Development Finance
    ISSUE 55 BANKWATCH MAIL March 2013 CEE Bankwatch Network's newsletter on international development finance www.bankwatch.org New nuclear risks in Ukraine – EBRD EIB hit by activist urged not to back lifetime extensions hoax, pledges to continue hitting under the guise of ‘safety’ climate The European Bank for Reconstruction to safety measures, including the decom- The European Investment Bank’s and Development is expected to take missioning of old reactors, not prolonging annual press conference in the final a decision this month on whether their lifetime.” week of February proved to be or not to provide a EUR 300 million Chief among the concerns of campaign- significantly more revealing about loan for a nuclear power plant ers is that the SUP has not been designed the bank’s commitment to fueling to guarantee the safe operation of Ukrain- Safety Upgrade Programme (SUP) climate change than is the norm for ian nuclear units after the expiration of the in Ukraine. Bankwatch and other original design life. the EU bank. environment groups are questioning As Holovko explains, the option – clearly the logic of the proposed SUP as it a very realistic option under Energoatom Reacting to a fake press release – circulated by plans – of plant operations exceeding the will result in some of Ukraine’s old activists on the eve of the bank’s set piece event design period has not been assessed: “In nuclear units continuing to operate in Brussels – which had announced that the EIB the main ecological assessment report would be pulling out of coal investments with for another 20 years.
    [Show full text]
  • The Economic and Monetary Union
    THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION What is the Economic and Monetary Union? The Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), launched in 1992, involves the coordination of economic and fiscal policies, a common monetary policy, and a common currency, the euro. Whilst all EU Member States take part in the economic union, some countries have taken integration further and adopted the euro. Together, these countries make up the euro area.1 The operations and management of the EMU are designed to support sustainable economic growth and high employment through economic and monetary policy. This involves four main economic activities: • implementing an effective monetary policy for the euro area with the objective of price stability • coordinating economic and fiscal policies in EU countries • ensuring the single market runs smoothly • supervising and monitoring financial institutions2 History Timeline3 1978 The Werner Report sets out a process on how to achieve a monetary and currency union. Governments set up the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) to reduce volatility between European currencies. 1989 The Delors Report maps out the road to EMU in three stages: 1990 Start of 1st stage of EMU: closer economic policy coordination and liberalisation of capital movements. Britain joins the ERM. 1992 Maastricht Treaty setting up the EU and committing EU countries to EMU. 1994 Start of 2nd stage of EMU: creation of the European Monetary Institute (EMI), a precursor to the ECB. Member states are required to work to fulfil the five convergence criteria. 1995 European leaders agree to call the new single currency the euro. Stage 3 of EMU is set out.
    [Show full text]
  • Payments and Market Infrastructure Two Decades After the Start of the European Central Bank Editor: Daniela Russo
    Payments and market infrastructure two decades after the start of the European Central Bank Editor: Daniela Russo July 2021 Contents Foreword 6 Acknowledgements 8 Introduction 9 Prepared by Daniela Russo Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, a 21st century renaissance man 13 Prepared by Daniela Russo and Ignacio Terol Alberto Giovannini and the European Institutions 19 Prepared by John Berrigan, Mario Nava and Daniela Russo Global cooperation 22 Prepared by Daniela Russo and Takeshi Shirakami Part 1 The Eurosystem as operator: TARGET2, T2S and collateral management systems 31 Chapter 1 – TARGET 2 and the birth of the TARGET family 32 Prepared by Jochen Metzger Chapter 2 – TARGET 37 Prepared by Dieter Reichwein Chapter 3 – TARGET2 44 Prepared by Dieter Reichwein Chapter 4 – The Eurosystem collateral management 52 Prepared by Simone Maskens, Daniela Russo and Markus Mayers Chapter 5 – T2S: building the European securities market infrastructure 60 Prepared by Marc Bayle de Jessé Chapter 6 – The governance of TARGET2-Securities 63 Prepared by Cristina Mastropasqua and Flavia Perone Chapter 7 – Instant payments and TARGET Instant Payment Settlement (TIPS) 72 Prepared by Carlos Conesa Eurosystem-operated market infrastructure: key milestones 77 Part 2 The Eurosystem as a catalyst: retail payments 79 Chapter 1 – The Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) revolution: how the vision turned into reality 80 Prepared by Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell Contents 1 Chapter 2 – Legal and regulatory history of EU retail payments 87 Prepared by Maria Chiara Malaguti Chapter 3 –
    [Show full text]
  • The Bank of the European Union (Sabine Tissot) the Authors Do Not Accept Responsibility for the 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 Translations
    The book is published and printed in Luxembourg by 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 15, rue du Commerce – L-1351 Luxembourg 3 (+352) 48 00 22 -1 5 (+352) 49 59 63 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 U [email protected] – www.ic.lu The history of the European Investment Bank cannot would thus mobilise capital to promote the cohesion be dissociated from that of the European project of the European area and modernise the economy. 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 The EIB yesterday and today itself or from the stages in its implementation. First These initial objectives have not been abandoned. (cover photographs) broached during the inter-war period, the idea of an 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 The Bank’s history symbolised by its institution for the financing of major infrastructure in However, today’s EIB is very different from that which 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 successive headquarters’ buildings: Europe resurfaced in 1949 at the time of reconstruction started operating in 1958. The Europe of Six has Mont des Arts in Brussels, and the Marshall Plan, when Maurice Petsche proposed become that of Twenty-Seven; the individual national 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 Place de Metz and Boulevard Konrad Adenauer the creation of a European investment bank to the economies have given way to the ‘single market’; there (West and East Buildings) in Luxembourg. Organisation for European Economic Cooperation. has been continuous technological progress, whether 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 • 1958-2008 in industry or financial services; and the concerns of The creation of the Bank was finalised during the European citizens have changed.
    [Show full text]
  • Should Poland Join the Euro? an Economic and Political Analysis
    Should Poland Join the Euro? An Economic and Political Analysis Should Poland Join the Euro? An Economic and Political Analysis Graduate Policy Workshop February 2016 Michael Carlson Conor Carroll Iris Chan Geoff Cooper Vanessa Lehner Kelsey Montgomery Duc Tran Table of Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ i About the WWS Graduate Policy Workshop ........................................................................................ ii Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 1 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 2 2 The Evolution of Polish Thought on Euro Adoption ................................................................. 5 2.1 Pre-EU membership reforms ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 After EU Accession ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Crisis years ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Post-crisis assessment ..................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • State Transformation and the European Integration Project Lessons from the Financial Crisis and the Greek Paradigm Evangelos Venizelos No
    State Transformation and the European Integration Project Lessons from the financial crisis and the Greek paradigm Evangelos Venizelos No. 130/February 2016 Abstract The financial crisis that erupted in the eurozone not only affected the EU’s financial governance mechanisms, but also the very nature of state sovereignty and balances in the relations of member states; thus, the actual inequalities between the member states hidden behind their institutional equality have deteriorated. This transformation is recorded in the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union and the member states’ constitutional courts, particularly in those at the heart of the crisis, with Greece as the most prominent example. It is the issue of public debt (sovereign debt) of the EU member states that particularly reflects the influence of the crisis on state sovereignty as well as the intensely transnational (intergovernmental) character of European integration, which under these circumstances takes the form of a continuous, tough negotiation. The historical connection between public debt (sovereign debt) and state sovereignty has re-emerged because of the financial crisis. This development has affected not only the European institutions, but also, at the member state level, the actual institutional content of the rule of law (especially judicial review) and the welfare state in its essence, as the great social and political acquis of 20th century Europe. From this perspective, the way that the Greek courts have dealt with the gradual waves of fiscal austerity measures and structural reforms from 2010 to 2015 is characteristic. The effect of the financial crisis on the sovereignty of the member states and on the pace of European integration also has an impact on European foreign and security policy, and the correlations between the political forces at both the national and European level, thus producing even more intense pressures on European social democracy.
    [Show full text]
  • The European Union and the United Kingdom
    ISSUE 2016/ 01 policy brief JANUARY 2016 bruegel ONE MARKET, TWO MONIES: THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by André Sapir THE ISSUE Access to the single market is one of the core benefits of the United Senior Fellow at Bruegel Kingdom’s membership of the European Union. A vote to leave the EU would [email protected] trigger difficult negotiations on continued access to that market. However, the and Guntram B. Wolff single market is not static. One of the drivers of change is the necessary Director of Bruegel [email protected] reforms to strengthen the euro. Such reforms would not only affect the euro’s fiscal and political governance. They would also have an impact on the single market, in particular in the areas of banking, capital markets and labour mar - kets. This is bound to affect the UK, whether it remains in the EU or not. POLICY CHALLENGE A defining characteristic of the banking, capital and labour markets is a high degree of public intervention. These markets are all regulated, and have implicit or explicit fiscal arrangements associated with them. Deepening integration in these markets will likely therefore require governance inte - gration, which might involve only the subset of EU countries that use the euro. Since these countries constitute the EU majority, safeguards are Participation of euro and non-euro EU countries in inter - needed to protect the governmental arrangements to strengthen EMU legitimate single mar - ket interests of the UK European Union and other euro-outs. Fiscal Compact, 2012 But the legitimate SE interest of the euro- Euro-area 19 Euro-plus area majority in deeper AT, BE, CY, DE, EE, ES UK Pact, 2011 HU market integration to IE, FI, FR, GR, IT, LT, LU, LV BG, DK, PL, RO MT, NL, PT, SI, SK bolster the euro should also be protected Banking Union (SRM), 2014 against vetoes from CZ, HR the euro-out minority.
    [Show full text]
  • Is Europe's Capital Markets Union Now in Sight?
    Conference Report| November 2020 IS EUROPE’S CAPITAL MARKETS UNION NOW IN SIGHT? Apostolos Thomadakis, Karel Lannoo and Cosmina Amariei The Covid-19 pandemic has served as a brutal reminder of the urgency to strengthen societal resilience as a whole. The extent of the socio-economic fallout has yet to be fully understood, however. But the Capital Markets Union (CMU) project has now taken on new relevance. Mobilising private funding for recovery coupled with sustainable and digital finance strategies is sorely needed. To this end, the ECMI annual conference brought together policymakers, supervisors, academics and industry representatives to exchange views on the continuation of the CMU, namely how to deliver the best outcomes for companies, investors and citizens in the coming years. It also featured a special debate on the evolving role of credit rating agencies. Disclaimer. This report includes the main conclusions from the 10th ECMI Annual Conference that was held virtually on 5 and 6 November 2020. Its content should be attributed solely to the rapporteurs. A detailed overview of the proceedings is available here. European Capital Markets Institute, Place du Congrès 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium www.ecmi.eu, [email protected] © Copyright 2020, ECMI All rights reserved. 2 | ANNUAL CONFERENCE Mobilising funding for sustainable recovery In Europe, capital markets are at differing stages of development, and are far from integrated. A fresh agenda for the financial sector that is both anchored in the needs of the real economy and shows regulatory quality is required now, for instance in the form of an ambitious second phase of the CMU project.
    [Show full text]
  • Nowcasting Eurozone Industrial Production
    2003 EDITION Nowcasting Eurozone Industrial Production THEME 1 General EUROPEAN statistics COMMISSION 1 Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union New freephone number: 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu.int). Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2003 ISBN 92-894-3416-3 ISSN 1725-4825 © European Communities, 2003 Nowcasting Eurozone Industrial Production Dominique Ladiray and Dermot O’Brien Abstract The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for the estima- tion of nowcasts of the Eurozone Industrial Production Index (IPI) for a delay of less than 45 days. We propose to build well-specified robust models for annual and monthly eurozone IPI growth rates that incor- porate information from business surveys and partial information from Member States. We prioritise models that are stable and well-specified and the optimal models are determined on the basis of an assessment of nowcasting performance for real-time data. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction................................................................................................ 3 2. Evolution of Arrival Delays ....................................................................... 3 3. Prospects for an Early IPI .......................................................................... 5 4. Developing a Methodology for Producing IPI Nowcasts .......................... 6 5. Models for Eurozone IPI............................................................................ 7 5.1 Annual IPI Growth Rates .................................................................... 7 5.1.1 Model A: NAIVE Model ........................................................... 7 5.1.2 Model B: GETS with Business Surveys.................................... 8 5.1.3 Model C: GETS with Business Surveys and Partial Information (1) ..............................................................
    [Show full text]