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Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017 Resources and Energy Quarterly i Further information Note For more information on data or government initiatives please access the Corrections were made to Chapter 15 (Major Projects) on 10 January 2018. report from the Department’s website at: As a result, some numbers reported in the text and tables have changed from www.industry.gov.au/oce the original report published on 8 January 2018. Cover image source: Shutterstock Editor © Commonwealth of Australia 2017 David Thurtell ISSN 1839 5007 [ONLINE] Vol.7, no. 4 Chapter Authors This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Macroeconomic outlook: Marco Hatt Act 1968, no part may be reproduced or altered by any process without prior Resources and energy overview: Marco Hatt written permission from the Australian Government. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to: Steel and iron ore: Monica Philalay Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, GPO Box 2013, Canberra Metallurgical and thermal coal: David Thurtell ACT 2601 or by emailing [email protected]. Gas: Nikolai Drahos Oil: Kate Martin Uranium, nickel and zinc: Mark Gibbons Creative Commons Licence Gold and copper: Joseph Moloney With the exception of the Coat of Arms, this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence. Aluminium, alumina and bauxite: Thuong Nguyen Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a standard form Resources and Energy Major Projects: Joseph Moloney, Thuong Nguyen, license agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this Kate Martin, Mark Gibbons, Nikolai Drahos publication provided that you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from: Acknowledgements http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of: The full licence terms are available from: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode Mark Cully, Tim Bradley, Laura Ling, Katya Golobokova, Ken Colbert, David Whitelaw, Madelane White, Kate Penney, Tom Barry, Caitlin Searle, Kade The Commonwealth’s preference is that you attribute this publication (and Denton, Sadaya Marathe, Virginia Leitch, Matthew Deady any material sourced from it) using the following wording: Source: Licensed from the Commonwealth of Australia under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence. Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017 Contents Foreword 1 About this edition 2 1. Overview 3 2. Macroeconomic outlook 12 3. Steel 18 4. Iron Ore 22 5. Metallurgical coal 29 6. Thermal coal 36 7. Gas 45 8. Oil 57 9. Uranium 65 10. Gold 73 11. Aluminium, alumina and bauxite 79 12. Copper 89 13. Nickel 95 14. Zinc 100 15. Resources and Energy Major Projects 105 16. Trade summary charts and tables 122 Appendix 131 Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017 i Foreword that while mining investment activity is likely to continue to decline in the short-term, a slight uptick in projects that have been publicly announced or Commodity prices resumed their decline in the December quarter 2017 — under feasibility, points to a bottoming in the investment cycle, beyond although their impact on export earnings was offset by a depreciation in 2017–18. Recent increases in exploration activity also have the potential the Australian dollar. Nonetheless, resources and energy export earnings to translate to higher investment in the longer term. are forecast to grow in 2017–18, to reach a (nominal) record of $214 billion, driven by growing LNG and iron ore export volumes. In 2018–19, Mark Cully prices are expected to weigh more heavily on export earnings, which are forecast to decline to $200 billion. Between 2016–17 and 2018–19, LNG is expected to add $14 billion to Australia’s export earnings, while coal and iron ore are forecast to subtract $11 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Chief Economist Growing LNG export volumes, attributed to the completion of the three Department of Industry, Innovation and Science remaining LNG projects currently under construction — Wheatstone, Ichthys and Prelude — will underpin growth in LNG export earnings out to 2018–19, while declining iron ore and coal prices are expected to drive the forecast decline in overall resources and energy export earnings. Steel production cuts in China have placed downward pressure on the price of Australia’s biggest export — iron ore — in the December quarter. Continued moderation in Chinese steel production, coupled with increased supplies from both Australia and Brazil, are expected to weigh further on iron ore prices over the next two years. Coal prices — both thermal and metallurgical — are also forecast to weigh heavily on Australia’s export earnings in the next two years, due to rising global supply and moderating demand. The outlook for base metals prices are generally more optimistic than for iron ore and coal (although mixed across the individual commodities). Strong growth in global industrial production — particularly the manufacturing of stainless steel, vehicles and aluminium-based packaging — and infrastructure development, particularly in China, has boosted demand. This edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly contains a special chapter on Resources and Energy Major Projects. The chapter reveals Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017 1 About this edition The Resources and Energy Quarterly contains the Office of the Chief Economist’s forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia’s major resources and energy commodity exports. Each March edition of Resources and Energy Quarterly features a ‘medium term’ (five year) outlook for Australia’s major resource and energy commodity exports. The June, September and December quarter editions of Resources and Energy Quarterly contain a ‘short term’ (two year) outlook. This edition updates the Office of the Chief Economist’s outlook out to 2018–19. Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Resources and Energy Quarterly is the Office of the Chief Economist’s outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply. The forecasts for Australia’s commodity exporters are reconciled with this global context. The global environment in which Australia’s producers compete can change rapidly. Each edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly factors in these changes, and makes appropriate alterations to the outlook, estimating the impact on Australian producers and the value of their exports. Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017 2 1. Overview Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017 3 1.1 Revisions to the outlook Figure 1.2: Largest revisions to export earnings, September 2017 to December 2017 Since the September 2017 Resources and Energy Quarterly, the forecast value of Australia’s resources and energy export earnings in 2017–18 has been revised up by $3.3 billion (1.6 per cent) to $214 billion. The outlook Iron ore for 2018–19 has been revised down slightly, by $1.4 billion (0.7 per cent) Thermal coal to $200 billion. The upward revision for 2017–18 primarily reflects higher than previously Metallurgical coal forecast iron ore, thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices. The iron ore Alumina price in particular has held up much more than previously anticipated. Nonetheless, the outlook still remains for declining iron ore prices into Gold 2018–19. Partially offsetting these upward revisions were minor downward revisions to forecast export earnings for alumina, gold and LNG. -4 -2 0 2 4 A$ billion A downward revision to iron ore export volumes in 2018–19 is the primary 2017–18 2018–19 driver for the downward revision to export earnings. The revision to export volumes reflects new production guidance from iron ore producers. Source: ABS (2017) International Trade in Goods and Services, 5368.0; Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (2017) Figure 1.1: Revisions to export earnings 225 200 175 150 A$ billion A$ 125 100 2006–07 2009–10 2012–13 2015–16 2018–19 Actual Mar-17 forecast Jun-17 forecast Sep-17 forecast Dec-17 forecast Source: ABS (2017) International Trade in Goods and Services, 5368.0; Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (2017) Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017 4 1.2 Summary Figure 1.3: Resources and energy export prices . Global economic growth, industrial production and manufacturing 170 output gathered pace in 2017, indicative of a positive environment for commodity demand. 150 . Commodity prices, however, continued their downward trend in the 130 December quarter 2017. Prices are forecast to decline by 2.0 per cent in 2017–18 and by a further 10 per cent in 2018–19, largely weighed 110 down by the steel-making commodities iron ore and metallurgical coal. 90 Demand for steel is expected to soften in China, the world’s largest 70 steel producing country. 100 = 2017 June Index, . Australia’s resources and energy export volumes are expected to 50 continue to grow at a robust pace over the next two years, driven by Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19 LNG and, to a lesser extent, iron ore. Resources Energy Total resources and energy Notes: The export price index is based on Australian dollar export unit values (EUVs, export Commodity prices were lifted by a depreciation in the Australian dollar values divided by volumes); the export price index is a Fisher Price Index, which weights In Australian dollar terms, the Office of the Chief Economist’s (OCE) each commodity’s EUV by its share of total export values Source: ABS (2017) International Trade in Goods and Services, 5368.0; Department of Resources and Energy Commodity Price Index grew by 1.8 per cent Industry, Innovation and Science (2017) (preliminary estimate) in the December quarter 2017, to be 1.9 per cent lower than a year earlier. The rise in commodities prices in the December Winter steel production cuts in China have resulted in some ongoing quarter was attributed to a depreciation in the Australian dollar — in US volatility in the iron ore price in the December quarter.
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