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Easter Nile River Basin Simulation with GERD

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Easter Nile River Basin Simulation with GERD Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa Institute of Technology School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Eastern Nile River Basin Simulation with Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam / GERD Application of distributed hydrological modeling with Mike Hydro modeling and Nile DSS BY - Tesfaye Abebe A Thesis Submitted to the School of Postgraduate Studies in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Hydraulic Engineering at Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University. ADVISOR: Dr. YILMA SILESHI May, 2015 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia MSc Thesis -By Tesfaye Abebe AAU-AAIT-School of Civil and Env’tal Eng’g | i Abstract Easter Nile River Basin Simulation with GERD Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa Institute of Technology School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Eastern Nile River Basin Simulation with Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam / GERD Application of distributed hydrological modeling with Mike Hydro modeling and Nile DSS BY - Tesfaye Abebe A Thesis Submitted to the School of Postgraduate Studies in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Hydraulic Engineering at Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University. ADVISOR: Dr. YILMA SILESHI May, 2015 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia MSc Thesis -By Tesfaye Abebe AAU-AAIT-School of Civil and Env’tal Eng’g | ii Abstract Easter Nile River Basin Simulation with GERD Eastern Nile River Basin Simulation with Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam GERD Application of distributed hydrological modeling with Mike Hydro modeling BY Tesfaye Abebe Addis Thesis submitted t o A ddis A baba U niversity, S chool of G raduate st udies i n partial f ulfillment of th e r equirements f or t he degree of Master of S cience i n Hydraulics Engineering. Members of examining board 1. Dr. Yilma Seleshi ---------------------- ------------ Advisor Signature Date 2. Dr. Dereje Hailu ---------------------- ------------ Internal examiner Signature Date 3. Dr. Daneal Tadesse ---------------------- ------------ External examiner Signature Date 4.___________________ ---------------------- ------------ Chair Man Signature Date MSc Thesis -By Tesfaye Abebe AAU-AAIT-School of Civil and Env’tal Eng’g | iii Abstract Easter Nile River Basin Simulation with GERD I. Abstract The E thiopian g overnment ha s c onducted Integrated W ater R esource Development M aster Plan f or t he Blue Nile basin i n 1998. T he m aster pl an h as i dentified v arious i rrigation a nd hydropower developments in the Sub basin. Since then, few projects have been implemented and some are under construction and the rest are at various levels of studies. This r esearch i s i dentified t o e valuate a nd s imulate t he G rand E thiopian Renaissance D am hydropower development opportunities in the Easter Nile basin and to assess the impacts on the dow nstream h ydropower generation a nd i rrigation de velopments a nd ot her w ater us e systems. The thesis compiled recent studies in the basin and meteorological, hydrological and demand data for each hydropower and irrigation schemes have been considered for the analysis. Mike Hydro 2014 model and Nile Basin DSS (preliminary stage) used for the study for simulation of the river water based on the existing water requirement and user priority setting situation. The model is operated by using the monthly based data in both the demand side and supply sides. The w ater r esources a vailability assessment a nd t he al locations p erformed b y d ifferent Scenarios. The impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Hydropower generation in the Eastern Nile River Basin is insignificant on the existing hydropower generation (present condition Sc- 0) o f th e E astern N ile River B asin. The scenario analysis result in dicates th at, t he ove rall average power production during the 40 years of simulation is increased by more than 50% in the E astern Nile R iver B asin. In t he R oseri and S ennar, t he a verage pow er pr oduction increased b y 15% f rom t he pr esent ( SC-0) c ondition. T he H ydro pow er g eneration i n t he Aswan Dam is reduced by 9% from the present (SC-0) condition. Accordingly, th e s imulation result showed positive i mpact on the e xisting Irrigation development ( present c ondition S c-0) of t he E astern N ile R iver Basin. T he i mpact of t he Grand E thiopian R enaissance D am H ydropower g eneration i n Irrigation de velopment i n t he Eastern N ile R iver B asin is significant o n th e e xisting Irrigation de velopment on t he downstream o f E astern N ile R iver B asin. T he s cenarios result illustrates th e b enefit f or downstream courtiers, especially, i n S udan b ecause of i ncreased ups tream r egulation i n Ethiopia. A n ove rall i mproved c overage of t he irrigation w ater de mand ( 0 m onth of de ficit with GERD, Sc-1, against 10 months of deficit without GERD, present condition Sc-0) in the Eastern Nile Basin. The average irrigation water demand deficit during the 40 years of simulation is reduced up to zero (no deficit) in the downstream Irrigation Scheme as shown in the simulation results. In the U/S Sennar a nd D/S Sennar, t he av erage i rrigation w ater d emand d eficit i s r educed significantly up to nil. The irrigation water demand deficit in the Gzeria and downstream of Aswan Irrigation schemes are also reduced accordingly. The r esults i n t his r esearch are p reliminary and ba sed on m any assumptions. W here i t ha s been pos sible t o ve rify the s imulations t he m odel r esults a re r easonable. N evertheless, t he current r esults m ust be treated with caution. The m odel need t o be refined us ing i mproved estimates of stream flow data on the major tributaries and better estimates of irrigation demand at all schemes. MSc Thesis -By Tesfaye Abebe AAU-AAIT-School of Civil and Env’tal Eng’g | iv Abstract Easter Nile River Basin Simulation with GERD II. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The first and the biggest thanks to the Alpha & Omega; Almighty GOD, who has created me and provided me his good will’s in all my activities. Secondly, I send my heartfelt thanks to all my family who have contributed the lions share in the success of my life yet. I am very grateful to my adviser Dr. Yilma Seleshi and express my heart-felt appreciation for his unreserved support in guiding me through this research from its start to the end. Lastly, my thankfulness goes to the institutions, individuals and all friends who have helped me in providing required data on t he subject matter of the research work and in encouraging my effort in many aspects. MSc Thesis -By Tesfaye Abebe AAU-AAIT-School of Civil and Env’tal Eng’g | v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Easter Nile River Basin Simulation with GERD Table of Contents I. Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ iv II. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................................ v III. Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER ONE ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Problem ........................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Research Questions ......................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Research Objectives ........................................................................................................................ 5 1.5 Research Materials and Methodology ........................................................................................... 6 CHPTER TWO ....................................................................................................................................... 11 2 Description of the Study Area ......................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Nile and Eastern Nile River Basin General Overview ................................................................ 11 2.1.1 Blue Nile .................................................................................................................................... 18 2.2 Tekeze-Atbara Sub-basin ........................................................................................................ 24 2.3 Sudd, Bahr el Chazal and Sobat .................................................................................................... 30 2.4. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam .............................................................................................. 33 CHAPTER THREE ................................................................................................................................ 40 3 Literature Review ................................................................................................................................. 40 3.1 Some of the models used in River Basin Simulation .................................................................... 40 3.3 Some of the pre-studies on Eastern Nile River Basin Simulation ..........................................
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