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Sähköautojen Tulevaisuus Suomessa Sähköautot Liikenne- Ja Ilmastopolitiikan Näkökulmasta

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Sähköautojen Tulevaisuus Suomessa Sähköautot Liikenne- Ja Ilmastopolitiikan Näkökulmasta Sähköautojen tulevaisuus Suomessa Sähköautot liikenne- ja ilmastopolitiikan näkökulmasta Julkaisuja 12/2011 Liikenne- ja viestintäministeriön toiminta-ajatus Liikenne- ja viestintäministeriö edistää yhteiskunnan toimivuutta ja väestön hyvinvointia huolehtimalla siitä, että kansalaisten ja elinkeinoelämän käytössä on laadukkaat, turvalli- set ja edulliset liikenne- ja viestintäyhteydet sekä alan yrityksillä kilpailukykyiset toimin- tamahdollisuudet. visio Suomi on eturivin maa liikenteen ja viestinnän laadussa, tehokkuudessa ja kansainväli- sessä osaamisessa. arvot Rohkeus Oikeudenmukaisuus Yhteistyö Julkaisun päivämäärä 16.2.2011 Julkaisun nimi Sähköautojen tulevaisuus Suomessa. Sähköautot liikenne- ja ilmastopolitiikan näkökulmasta Tekijät Nils-Olof Nylund Toimeksiantaja ja asettamispäivämäärä Liikenne- ja viestintäministeriö Julkaisusarjan nimi ja numero ISSN (verkkojulkaisu) 1795-4045 Liikenne- ja viestintäministeriön ISBN (verkkojulkaisu) 978-952-243-221-6 URN http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-243-221-6 julkaisuja 12/2011 HARE-numero Asiasanat sähköautot, akut, hiilidioksidipäästöt, sähkön tuotanto, sähköverkko, liikennepolitiikka Yhteyshenkilö Saara Jääskeläinen Muut tiedot Tiivistelmä Selvityksessä on tarkastelu sähköautoja osana suomalaista liikennejärjestelmää, ilmastopoli- tiikkaa ja liikennepolitiikkaa. Sähköautojen todellinen tuleminen on mitä todennäköisimmin alkanut. Kehitys on aluksi hidasta, eikä sähköautoista vielä ole apua vuoden 2020 energia- ja ilmastotavoitteiden saavuttamiseen. Toisaalta niitä ei myöskään tarvita näiden tavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi. Tilanne muuttunee merkittävästi vuoteen 2030 ja varsinkin vuoteen 2050 mentäessä. Sähköauto ei tule ratkaisemaan henkilöautoliikenteen perusongelmia, suoritteiden ja ruuhkautumisen lisääntymistä. Mahdolliset sähköautojen edistämiseen tähtäävät kannusti- met eivät saa olla ristiriidassa joukkoliikenteen kehittämisen tavoitteiden kanssa. Sähköautojen tulemiseen on syytä alkaa varautua jo nyt mm. huomioimalla sähköautojen lataus rakentamismääräyksissä. Sähköautojen käytön tasapuolinen mahdollistaminen tulee edellyttämään myös julkisen latausverkoston rakentamista. Pitkien välimatkojen Suomessa lataushybridi voi olla käyttökelpoisempi ja kustannustehokkaampi vaihtoehto kuin täyssähkö- auto, joka soveltuu parhaiten lyhyille matkoille ja taajamaliikenteeseen. Sähkön tuotantoka- pasiteetti ei rajoita sähköautojen yleistymistä. Automäärien kasvaessa lataus on kuitenkin hoidettava älykkäästi, muuten sähköautot lisäävät huipputehon tarvetta ja sähköverkkojen kuormaa. Liikennepolitiikan ja kustannustehokkuuden näkökulmista Suomessa ei ole perusteltua välit- tömästi pyrkiä sähköautojen lukumäärän maksimoimiseen. Ainakin sähköautojen hinnan ole- tetaan laskevan varsin nopeasti, ja myös suorituskyvyn parantumisesta on toiveita. Tästä huolimatta meidän tulee mahdollisimman nopeasti saada käyntiin riittävän laajoja demohank- keita palautetiedon ja referenssien hankkimiseksi sähköautoista ja niihin liittyvistä järjestel- mistä. Raportin lopussa on toimenpidesuosituksia ja ehdotus eri toimenpiteiden toteuttamis- järjestyksestä. Publikationsdatum 16.2.2011 Publikation Elbilarnas framtid i Finland. Elbilarna ur trafik- och klimatpolitisk synvinkel Författare Nils-Olof Nylund Tillsatt av och datum Kommunikationsministeriet Publikationsseriens namn och nummer ISSN (webbpublikation) 1795-4045 Kommunikationsministeriets ISBN (webbpublikation) 978-952-243-221-6 URN http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-243-221-6 publikationer 12/2011 HARE-nummer Ämnesord elbilar, ackumulatorer, koldioxidutsläpp, elproduktion, elnät, trafikpolitik Kontaktperson Rapportens språk Saara Jääskeläinen Finska Övriga uppgifter Sammandrag Elbilarnas betydelse för det finländska trafiksystemet, klimatpolitiken och trafikpolitiken har utretts. Elbilarnas verkliga genombrott har högst troligen börjat. I början går dock utveckling- en långsamt, och elbilarna bidrar inte till att uppnå energi- och klimatmålen för år 2020. Man kan dock konstatera att elbilarna inte heller behövs för att uppnå dessa krav. Situationen kommer att ändra märkbart till år 2030 och speciellt 2050. Elbilen kommer visserligen inte att lösa persontrafikens grundläggande problem, dvs. ökning av trafikmängder och trafikstock- ningar. Eventuella incentiv för att befrämja elbilar bör inte stå i konflikt med utveckling av kollektivtrafiken. Förberedelserna för elbilarnas frammarsch borde starta redan nu exempelvis genom att införa regler för beaktande av laddning av elbilar i byggnadsbestämmelserna. För att möjliggöra jämlikt utnyttjande av elbilar krävs att man bygger publika laddningsnät för elbilar. I Finland där avstånden är långa kan laddhybrider vara ett mer ändamålsenligt och kostnadseffektivt alternativ än batterielbilar. Elproduktionskapaciteten som sådan kommer inte att vara ett hin- der för att införa elbilar. När antalet elbilar ökar bör dock laddningen ske på ett intelligent sätt, annars ökar behovet av toppkapacitet och belastningen på elnäten. Ur trafikpolitisk synvinkel och med tanke på kostnadseffektivitet är det inte motiverat att omedelbart sträva till att maximera antalet elbilar. Priset på elbilar kommer att sjunka betyd- ligt, och det finns även hopp om förbättrad prestanda. Trots detta bör vi omgående starta omfattande flottförsök för att generera feed-back och referenser för elbilar och relaterade sy- stem. I rapporten ingår rekommendationer för åtgärder och förslag till tidsprogrammering för dessa åtgärder. 3 Date 16 February 2011 Title of publication Future of electric vehicles in Finland. Electric vehicles in the transport and climate policy context Author(s) Nils-Olof Nylund Commissioned by, date Ministry of Transport and Communication Publication series and number ISSN (online) 1795-4045 Publications of the Ministry of ISBN (online) 978-952-243-221-6 URN http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-243-221-6 Transport and Communications Reference number 12/2011 Keywords electric vehicles, batteries, carbon dioxide emissions, electricity generation, power grids, transport policy Contact person Language of the report Ms Saara Jääskeläinen Finnish Other information Abstract This reports deals with electric vehicles (EV) as a part of Finnish transport system, climate policy and transport policy. The market entry of electric vehicles has now probably started for real. The progress will at first be rather modest, though, and EVs will not bring much contri- bution to fulfilling the 2020 targets in energy and climate policy. On the other hand, there is no need to use EVs, and other technologies may allow more cost-effective solutions. However, the situation will change markedly until 2030, and especially by 2050. Furthermore, electrifi- cation will not solve the basic problems of passenger car traffic: increase in vehicle kilometres and congestion rates. This, the incentives that may be used to stimulate EV market and de- mand shall not be in conflict with the development efforts if public transportation. Even if the EV market may still be modest, it is due time to start taking into consideration e.g. the aspects of recharging systems in construction and building regulations. In order to give equal possibilities for all motorists to use EVs, public charging infrastructure is needed. How- ever, as distances in Finland are quite long, plug-in hybrid may prove to be more practical and cost-effective solution than pure battery-only EV, which is more suited to short-distance driv- ing in urban environment. Electricity generation capacity does not limit the growth of EV park, but when the vehicle numbers are getting high, the timing of the charging must be carefully controlled. Otherwise EV charging increases the need for peak power and raises grid load. From the point of view of transport policy and cost-effectiveness it is not justified to immedi- ately try to maximize the EV penetration, because the price of electric vehicles is expected to get lower and overall performance to improve over time. However, we need to launch demon- strations that are so extensive that we can get statistically valid feedback information from EVs and their associated subsystems. At the end of the report, recommendations are given for various actions and measures, as well as a suggestion for the order those should be imple- mented. 4 Laajennettu tiivistelmä Johtopäätökset Sähköautojen todellinen tuleminen on mitä todennäköisimmin alkanut. Alkukiihdytys on kuitenkin pakostakin maltillinen, eikä sähköautoista vielä ole apua vuoden 2020 energia- ja ilmastotavoitteiden saavuttamiseen. Toisaalta niitä ei myöskään tarvita näiden tavoit- teiden saavuttamiseksi. Tilanne muuttunee merkittävästi vuoteen 2030 ja varsinkin vuo- teen 2050 mentäessä. Sähköauto ei tule ratkaisemaan henkilöautoliikenteen peruson- gelmia, suoritteiden ja ruuhkautumisen lisääntymistä. mahdolliset sähköautojen edistä- miseen tähtäävät kannustimet eivät saa olla ristiriidassa joukkoliikenteen kehittämisen tavoitteiden kanssa. Sähköautojen tulemiseen on syytä alkaa varautua jo nyt. Rakentamisessa niin asuntojen kuin julkisten rakennusten osalta tulisi varautua ainakin sähköautojen hitaaseen latauk- seen. Uudisrakentamisessa ja saneerauksissa riittävien kaapelointien tekeminen tai aika- kin putkitusten ja kaapelireittien varaaminen ei ole merkittävä kustannus. Pikalatauksen osalta ohjeistukseen on otettava pieni aikalisä, koska standardointi ja tekniikkavalinnat ovat osittain vielä auki. Sähköautojen määrän lisääntyessä on tärkeää, että sähköautojen lataus ohjataan älyk- käästi jotta vältytään latauksen aiheuttamilta
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