Land Use, Climate Change and Ecological Responses in the Upper

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Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 1 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

Dan Farr, Colleen Mortimer, Faye Wyatt, Andrew Braid, Charlie Loewen, Craig Emmerton, Simon Slater

Cover photo: Wayne Crocker

This publication can be found at: open.alberta.ca/publications/9781460140697.

Comments, questions, or suggestions regarding the content of this document may be directed to: Ministry of Environment and Parks, Environmental Monitoring and Science Division 10th Floor, 9888 Jasper Avenue NW, Edmonton, Alberta, T5J 5C6 Tel: 780-229-7200 Toll Free: 1-844-323-6372 Fax: 780-702-0169 Email: [email protected] Media Inquiries: [email protected] Website: environmentalmonitoring.alberta.ca

Recommended citation: Farr. D., Mortimer, C., Wyatt, F., Braid, A., Loewen, C., Emmerton, C., and Slater, S. 2018. Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment. Government of Alberta, Ministry of Environment and Parks. ISBN 978-1-4601-4069-7. Available at: open.alberta.ca/publications/9781460140697.

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Alberta, as represented by the Minister of Alberta Environment and Parks, 2018. This publication is issued under the Open Government Licence - Alberta open.alberta.ca/licence.

Published September 2018

ISBN 978-1-4601-4069-7

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 2 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the external reviewers for providing their technical reviews and feedback, which have enhanced this work.

Reviewer 1 holds a Ph.D. in Geography with a specialization in alpine snow hydrology and climatology, and has over 35 years of experience examining Arctic systems and their role in climate, including the role of major circumpolar river systems, particularly those originating in western Canada. The reviewer has held senior scientific positions with a federal department and jointly through a research chair position, with a Canadian university. The reviewer has co-authored international scientific assessments focused on cold regions, including for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for which the reviewer was jointly awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.

Reviewer 2 holds a M.Sc. and Ph.D. in fire history and fire regime research. The reviewer has 27 years of experience in this field and specializes in mountain and foothills landscapes of western Canada, general fire ecology, as well as the effect of topography on forest survivorship to fire.

Reviewer 3 holds a Ph.D. in Conservation Biology and has considerable research and publication experience in landscape ecology, climate change risk assessments, and species habitat suitability studies, with particular focus on North America and western Canada.

Reviewer 4 holds a Ph.D. in ecology and has worked in management and research of terrestrial mammals for over 30 years. The reviewer’s management focus has been in population management of hunted and trapped mammals and their research has focused mainly on carnivore ecology in western Canada.

Reviewer 5 holds a M.Sc. in Ecology and a B.Sc. in Wildlife Biology. The reviewer has substantial experience in biometrics including mark-recapture estimation, habitat modelling, and spatial mark- recapture methods. The reviewer has an extensive record of publication with an emphasis on estimation of the application of modern statistical methods to carnivore and ungulate conservation.

Reviewer 6 holds a Ph.D. in forest ecology with nearly 20 years experience in fire ecology and ecosystem change dynamics.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 3 Executive summary

The Eastern Slopes of Canada’s Rocky Mountains have been managed for headwater protection, natural resource production, recreation, and other land uses for over a century. To inform future land use planning in the Eastern Slopes of west-central Alberta, a review was conducted of key land use stressors and expected ecological responses. Altered fire regimes, forest harvesting, and linear disturbances are key stressors that, along with climate, and other environmental drivers, affect wildlife, hydrology, and other valued ecosystem attributes. The current status of each stressor in the study area was characterized from geospatial and other environmental datasets, expected ecological responses were summarized from reviews of the published literature, and future research and monitoring priorities were identified.

Changes to the historical fire regime in the study area were assessed by examining provincial fire records and published sources to describe fire regime characteristics such as frequency and cause. Forest harvest areas were delineated from provincial government records, and linear disturbances were compiled from a variety of provincial and other sources. The area of interior habitat remaining in each of the 96 watersheds in the study area was calculated by buffering linear disturbances, forest harvest areas, and other anthropogenic disturbances. The influence of regional climate variability and change was assessed by examining changes in temperature and precipitation in the study area since 1951 using the ClimateNA software. Because the study area is highly valued as a source of drinking water for numerous communities, and is important habitat for key riverine species, an analysis of streamflow during each month of the open water season (April-October) for the period 1984-2013 was also conducted.

While there are substantial gaps in the documentation of historical fire regimes in the study area, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the historical fire regime has changed since the cessation of traditional burning by Indigenous peoples in the late 19th century and the implementation of modern fire suppression efforts in the middle of the 20th century. Over the past several decades, both the frequency and spatial extent of fire have declined compared to historical conditions. This altered fire regime has numerous implications for wildlife and other ecosystem attributes, including:

 encroachment of trees and shrubs into non-forest areas such as montane grasslands  limited creation of post-fire conditions suitable for germination and growth of pioneer and early seral plants  increased area of mature and old forest through succession of younger seral stage stands  limited post-fire alteration of stream and riverine ecosystems (flow regime, temperature, nutrients, sediments and biota)  increased likelihood of future wildfire

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 4 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Within the Foothills Natural Region (47% of the study area), forest harvesting has replaced wildfire as the dominant stand-replacing disturbance over the past several decades. While forest harvesting and fire bear some similarities (e.g., both clearcutting and high-severity fires significantly alter forest structure and composition, and create a dominant cohort of trees), there are significant differences between the two disturbance regimes. Expected ecological responses to forest harvesting in the study area stem from the following:

 establishment of young forest stands  reduced area of mature and old forest  post-harvest alteration of stream ecosystems

While the western half of the study area (west of Forestry Trunk Road 734) is relatively free of linear disturbances, most watersheds in the eastern half of the study area are heavily dissected by roads, seismic lines, trails, and other linear disturbances associated with the energy, forestry, and agricultural sectors. Only the western half of this landscape can be considered remote; the area of interior habitat exceeds 80% in most western watersheds. In contrast, interior habitat comprises less than 50% of most eastern watersheds. Expected ecological responses to high densities of linear disturbances include:

 altered wildlife behaviour and increased risk of human-caused wildlife mortality  creation of conditions suitable for the establishment of disturbance-adapted plants  potential alteration of stream and river water quality from increased sediment inputs at stream crossings

While most of the evidence available to assess ecological responses to linear disturbances comes from studies of road effects, most linear disturbances in the study area are trails rather than roads. Additional studies are needed to characterize the ecological impacts of roads compared to trails, and to understand the influence of associated human use. The frequency, timing, and type (e.g., motorized vs non-motorized) of human activity is likely to have an incremental effect on many ecological responses.

Regional climate variability and change are expected to have far-reaching effects on wildlife and other ecosystem attributes in the Eastern Slopes. Changes in the study area’s climate since 1951 include higher air temperatures, especially during the winter, and reduced snowfall. Projected future changes include higher mean annual air temperature, increased total annual precipitation, and decreased snowfall. Potential ecological responses to these climatic changes include:

 Shifting and altered vegetation communities (e.g., upslope movement of treeline, expansion of montane grasslands, transition from coniferous to deciduous forest, changes in vegetation community composition)

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 5  Altered streamflow and increased water temperature

Analysis of open water season streamflow records in the study area indicate that June streamflow has increased over the past few decades. Changes in the timing of peak flow has implications for the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems and downstream communities. Projected increases in stream and river water temperature and changing river ice conditions would also affect cold-water fish species such as bull trout and their associated food webs.

While much is known about the ecological and anthropogenic drivers of ecosystem response in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River basins, additional research and monitoring are needed to inform evidence-based regional land use planning. Three research priorities would address key knowledge gaps:

 reconstruction of historical fire regimes  integrated assessment of environmental drivers affecting hydrological and water quality regimes  systematic reviews of ecological response to land use

Improved monitoring is also needed to assess the effectiveness of current and proposed environmental management strategies implemented in the study area, including the single and cumulative effects of:

 prescribed burns  forest harvesting  post-fire harvest and silviculture treatments  linear disturbance regulation  conservation areas

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 6 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Table of Contents

Acknowledgements...... 3 Executive summary ...... 4 Introduction ...... 13 Study area ...... 14 Methods ...... 16 Land use, climate change, and streamflow ...... 16 Ecological responses ...... 16 Overview of key land use stressors ...... 18 Altered fire regimes ...... 18 Historical fire regime ...... 18 Recent fire regime ...... 20 Future fire regime ...... 23 Forest harvesting ...... 24 Linear disturbances ...... 27 Overview of climate and streamflow ...... 32 Climate variability and change ...... 32 Streamflow ...... 33 Future climate and streamflow ...... 34 Potential ecological responses to land use stressors ...... 36 Altered fire regimes ...... 36 Forest harvesting ...... 40 Linear disturbances ...... 41 Altered wildlife habitat use and population dynamics...... 41 Establishment of disturbance-adapted plants ...... 43 Alteration of stream and river water quality ...... 43 Potential ecological responses to climate variability and change ...... 47 Priority research and monitoring needs ...... 49 Applied research priorities ...... 50 Improved reconstruction of historical fire regimes ...... 50

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 7 Integrated assessment of environmental drivers affecting hydrological and water quality regimes ...... 51 Systematic reviews of ecological response to land use ...... 52 Monitoring the effectiveness of land use plans ...... 53 Prescribed burns ...... 54 Forest harvesting ...... 54 Post-fire harvest and silvicultural treatments ...... 55 Linear disturbance regulation ...... 55 Conservation areas ...... 56 Literature cited ...... 58 Appendix A. Data sources and analyses ...... 81 Wildfire ...... 81 Forest harvesting ...... 81 Linear disturbances ...... 82 Interior habitat ...... 83 Climate change ...... 88 Streamflow ...... 94 Methods ...... 94 Results ...... 94 Literature cited ...... 106 Appendix B. Systematic mapping of published evidence for land use-species relationships ...... 108 Objective ...... 108 Search strategy ...... 108 Search string ...... 108 Article screening ...... 109 Data extraction ...... 109 Synthesis ...... 110 Report ...... 110 Results ...... 110 Literature cited ...... 111

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 8 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment List of Tables

Table 1. Summary of the historical fire regime in the study area, based on sources listed in the text...... 20 Table 2. Summary of the recent fire regime in the study area, modified from Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (2012), Rogeau (2009), Stockdale (2011) and Andison (2011)...... 22 Table 3. Area burned (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017b) and harvested (Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins 2018) in each Natural Subregion (Natural Regions Committee 2006)...... 24 Table 4. Summary of recent (since ~1950) trends in climate parameters in the Eastern Slopes. Sources are listed in text...... 33 Table 5. Summary of potential ecological responses of selected species to land use and climate change in the study area. Supporting evidence for each entry is presented in the text. + Positive response; - Negative response; + - Both positive and negative response; 0 Response is indirect or unlikely...... 39 Table A1. Buffer distances assigned to linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins for the calculation of interior habitat. See text for details...... 84 Table A2. Buffer distances assigned to forest harvest areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins for the calculation of interior habitat. See text for details...... 84 Table A3. Buffer distances assigned to features in the 2016 Human Footprint Inventory (Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute 2018) for the calculation of interior habitat. .... 85 Table A4. Annual climate variables for the period 1951-1980 for the study area. Source: ClimateNA (Wang et al. 2016) ...... 90 Table A5. Annual climate variables for the period 1981-2010 for the study area. Source: ClimateNA (Wang et al. 2016) ...... 91 Table A6. Annual climate variables for the period 2081-2100 for the study area, RCP4.5 ClimateNA (Wang et al. 2016) ...... 92 Table A7. Annual climate variables for the period 2081-2100 for the study area, RCP8.5 ClimateNA (Wang et al. 2016) ...... 93 Table B1. Key findings of articles retrieved using the systematic mapping protocol. Source documentation available at open.alberta.ca/publications/9781460140697...... 112

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 9 List of Figures

Figure 1. A) Map of the study area. B) Location of the study area in Alberta at the headwaters of the North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River basins. C) Public Land Use Zones comprising the Bighorn Backcountry. Data Sources Alberta ...... 15 Figure 2. Wildfire extent (a) and occurrence (b) in the study area. Wildfire extent for 1941- 2016 and wildfire occurrence for 1961-2016 obtained from Alberta Agriculture and Forestry’s wildfire perimeter dataset (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017c) and historic wildfire dataset (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017b), respectively. Only wildfires >200 ha (Class E) are displayed in (a)...... 21 Figure 3. Cumulative area of disturbance by fire and forest harvesting in each Natural Subregion in the study area since 1961. Sources: Alberta Agriculture and Forestry (2017b), Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018)...... 25 Figure 4. Forest harvest areas in the study area, 1961-2016. Source: Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018)...... 26 Figure 5. Roads (a) and all linear disturbances (b) in the study area. Source: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018)...... 28 Figure 6. Density of roads (a) and all linear disturbances (b) in study area watersheds. Source: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018). See Appendix A for watershed boundaries ...... 29 Figure 7. Distribution of the density of roads (a) and all linear disturbances (b) in the study area. Source: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018)...... 30 Figure 8. Interior habitat in study area watersheds. Sources: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018). Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018), Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018), 2016 Human Footprint Inventory (Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute 2018). See Appendix A for watershed boundaries...... 31 Figure 9. Streamflow trends in the study area, 1984-2013, based on hydrometric data for seventeen stations in the study area. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018). See Appendix A for a description of methods...... 35 Figure 10. Grizzly bear density (a, b), habitat value (c), and mortality risk (d) in the study area. Density estimates (Boulanger et al. 2018) are based on population inventories conducted in Bear Management Area (BMA) 3 (Yellowhead) in 2004 (Boulanger et al. 2005a) and BMA 4 (Clearwater) in 2005 (Boulanger et al 2005b), and are shown here

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 10 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment for sampling grid centroids. Grizzly bear habitat value and mortality risk are modelled for 2015 conditions (Source: fRI Research Grizzly Bear Program)...... 44 Figure 11. The number of studies meeting the systematic mapping inclusion criteria, which describe evidence of ecological response to land use and associated stressors by each species. Note that multiple studies may be reported for single research articles when multiple stressors or species were described. See Appendix B for a description of methods...... 45 Figure 12. Historic and current adult bull trout density in the study area. Density ranks were assigned to each HUC 8 watershed based on naïve occupancy (proportion of sites were bull trout were detected) supplemented by angler catch rates and expert opinion. Data source: Alberta Environment and Parks (2018b) ...... 46 Figure A1. Interior habitat in the study area based on buffers on linear and non-linear disturbances of (a) 50 m and (b) 200 m. Sources: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018), Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018), 2016 Human Footprint Inventory (Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute 2018)...... 86 Figure A2. Watersheds used as the unit of analysis for spatial summaries. Data source: Alberta Environment and Parks (2017a)...... 87 Figure A3. Hydrometric gauging stations (non-regulated) in the study area. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018)...... 95 Figure A4. 1984-2013 average daily discharge (m³/s) for each month during the open water season (April-October). Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018). .... 96 Figure A5. Annual hydrographs for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) for the period 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018)...... 97 Figure A6: April daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018)...... 99 Figure A7: May daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018)...... 100 Figure A8: June daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018)...... 101 Figure A9: July daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018)...... 102

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 11 Figure A10: August daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018)...... 103 Figure A11: September daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018)...... 104 Figure A12: October daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018)...... 105

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 12 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Introduction

The Eastern Slopes of Canada’s Rocky Mountains have long been valued as a source of water for the three Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba), and have been managed by federal and provincial governments for over a century to protect this ecosystem service (Murphy 1985). However, this iconic landscape produces more than water. Much of Alberta’s commercial lumber and pulp production occurs in the Eastern Slopes, supporting forestry-based communities and employment. The region’s natural gas reserves contribute to the provincial economy through royalties and taxes, with additional economic contributions through direct and indirect employment. As an expanse of public land that is easily accessible to Alberta’s growing population, the Eastern Slopes are also a destination for outdoor recreation, fishing, hunting, trapping, and a variety of traditional land use activities.

Provincial government policy is intended to support natural resource development and a range of other land uses in the Eastern Slopes without compromising source water production, wildlife, and other ecosystem services (Government of Alberta 1984). Policy updates are ongoing, most recently under the Alberta Land Stewardship Act (2013), which directs regional land use planning throughout the Province. A regional plan for the South Saskatchewan watershed has been completed (Government of Alberta 2018b), and a plan for the North Saskatchewan watershed was initiated in 2014 (Government of Alberta 2014).

Evaluating the potential impacts of land use on regional environmental outcomes is challenging because many outcomes are affected by factors such as industrial development that government can regulate at the regional level, and factors such as climate change that cannot be regulated at the regional scale. Identifying these factors, and understanding how they affect ecosystems, is essential for land use planners aiming to achieve desired outcomes while minimizing the risk of unintended consequences.

Among the many drivers of ecosystem dynamics in the Eastern Slopes, four were selected that are particularly relevant to land use planning: altered fire regimes, forest harvesting, linear disturbances, and regional climate variability and change. Understanding these factors, and how species and other ecosystem attributes may respond to them, can support evidence-based land use planning. The purpose of this report is to characterize each stressor, summarize expected ecological responses base on a review of the scientific literature, and identify future research and monitoring priorities.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 13 Study area

The study area is in west-central Alberta, extending from the continental divide to the eastern limit of the Foothills Natural Region (Natural Regions Committee 2006). The study area encompasses the Upper North Saskatchewan River Basin and part of the adjacent Upper Red Deer River Basin (Fig. 1), a total area of 24,677 km2. It includes parts of two National Parks (Banff and Jasper), two Provincial Wilderness Areas (Whitegoat and Siffleur), several Public Land Use Zones comprising the Bighorn Backcountry, additional public lands in Alberta’s Green Area, and private land on the eastern edge of the study area.

The study area is approximately equally divided between the Rocky Mountain (47%) and Foothills Natural Regions (50%), with a small proportion of Boreal Forest (3%) east of the Foothills (Natural Regions Committee 2006). The study area contains 24% and 18% of the provincial extent of Rocky Mountain and Foothills Natural Regions, respectively. A short growing season and frost-free period limits plant growth, especially in the Alpine and Subalpine Natural Subregions in the western part of the study area. Frequent erosion and deposition events such as avalanches and landslides disrupt soil formation at higher elevations. In the Foothills, soils are predominantly luvisols and brunisols (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017a). Vegetation cover is dominated by coniferous forest, with smaller proportions of mixedwood forest and non-forest vegetation (Castilla et al. 2014).

The study area is located within a larger continental cordilleran ecosystem that has a west-to-east hydro-climatic and related biogeographical transition from mountains to foothills and supports a terrestrial and aquatic animal, plant and wildlife species complex that are part of larger regional populations and communities that extend along the Eastern Slopes of the continental divide. Watersheds in the mountain headwaters of Banff and Jasper National Parks are connected hydrologically to the Foothills and beyond through two major river systems (North Saskatchewan and Red Deer, Fig. 1). Flow regimes are spring snowmelt dominated and related water quality characteristics of the watersheds represent an interplay of regional geology, climatology and land use. Stream and river flows peak in the late spring during snowmelt and associated rainfall events, declines over the summer-autumn period, and is low during winter when precipitation is stored as snow, particularly at higher elevations.

Alberta’s Eastern Slopes represent an important biocultural landscape where inextricably linked biological and cultural systems have co-evolved (Bridgewater and Arico 2002, Plumwood 2006). For centuries, the region has been the permanent or seasonal home of many Indigenous peoples. Today, the Ĩyãħé Nakota, also known as the Stoney Nakota Nation, as well as the Sunchild First Nation, O’Chiese First Nation, and Alexis Nakota Sioux First Nation, along with other Indigenous peoples, continue to maintain cultural and spiritual relationships with their traditional territories in the area.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 14 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Figure 1. A) Map of the study area. B) Location of the study area in Alberta at the headwaters of the North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River basins. C) Public Land Use Zones comprising the Bighorn Backcountry. Data Sources Alberta Environment and Parks 2004a, 2004b, 2010, 2016, 2017a, 2017c, 2017d, 2017e, 2018a, 2018d.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 15 The Indigenous peoples’ way of life in the region depends upon resilience of the area’s biocultural landscape, including cultural keystone species (Garibaldi and Taylor 2004) in the face of growing environmental pressures. Consequently, the ongoing development of a comprehensive understanding of past, current and future states of this region will require the application of a Multiple Evidence Based (MEB) approach (after Tengö et al. 2014) that considers best available information that comes from both Indigenous and Western scientific knowledge systems.

Methods Land use, climate change, and streamflow

A list and description of all data sources and processing methods are available in Appendix A. A variety of sources were used to characterize fire regimes, forest harvesting, linear disturbances, and regional climate variability and change in the study area. Alterations in the fire regime were assessed by examining provincial fire records and published sources that characterized historical and current fire patterns. Changes in the magnitude and spatial extent of forest harvesting and linear disturbances were examined using provincial maps and geospatial analyses. Linear disturbances, defined as straight or curved movement corridors created by people, were mapped from Alberta Provincial Base Features, supplemented with additional information on pipelines and trails. This linear disturbance dataset, combined with a map of forest harvest areas and other disturbance types, was used to calculate the area of interior habitat remaining in the 96 watersheds in the study area. Interior habitat is defined as habitat that is beyond a defined buffer distance from anthropogenic disturbances. Buffer distances used to delineate interior habitat vary by disturbance type, ranging from 20 m to 200 m. The influence of regional climate variability and change was assessed by examining changes (since 1951) in temperature and precipitation in the study area using the ClimateNA software, which provides downscaled climate grids based on historic and present-day weather station observations and future climate model projections. Because the study area is also highly valued as a source of drinking water for numerous communities and is important habitat for key riverine species, an analysis of streamflow during each month of the open water season (April-October) for the period 1984-2013 was performed.

Ecological responses

Published studies of ecological response to altered fire regimes, forest harvesting, linear disturbances, and climate variability and change were reviewed, building on a previous review of ecological responses to human activities in southwestern Alberta (Farr et al. 2017). Because

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 16 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment responses to land use are species-specific, several species were selected to provide specific examples of ecological responses to land use and climate change. They were selected from candidate species identified by government biologists and an Indigenous expert familiar with the study area. Government biologists identified potential “landscape species” (Sanderson et al. 2002, Coppolillo et al. 2004), and the Indigenous expert helped identify species of cultural significance. The focal species are bison (Bison bison), bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), moose (Alces alces), grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis), bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), and two species of five- needled pines (whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis)). These focal species are used to provide examples of ecological responses to land use stressors, and are not assumed to be representative, or indicators, of larger functional or taxonomic groups.

To characterize the availability of scientific evidence for ecological response of each species to land use stressors, a systematic literature mapping protocol (James et al. 2016) was developed and applied. Predefined search terms were used to query the ISI Web of Knowledge database and retrieve sources that included at least one stressor-related keyword and one species-related keyword. To constrain the scope of the search, stressor keywords were limited to those related to fire, forest harvesting, linear disturbances, and a small number of additional stressors. Retrieved sources were screened for relevance to the Rocky Mountains of Canada and the United States. A detailed description of the systematic mapping protocol and the key findings of retrieved sources are provided in Appendix B.

While the systematic literature mapping protocol enabled a transparent and repeatable assessment of relevant scientific literature, the review presented in this report also considered additional sources beyond those retrieved via the mapping protocol. A fully systematic review (e.g., Jackson et al. 2016) of ecological responses was beyond the scope of this report.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 17 Overview of key land use stressors Altered fire regimes Historical fire regime

Because fire has long been a dominant disturbance agent in the Eastern Slopes (Stocks et al. 2002), changes in the fire regime can lead to changes in vegetation, wildlife, hydrology, and other ecosystem parameters. A fire regime is defined as the interaction of fires with the environment in space and time (Morgan et al. 2001), and is the type of fire activity or pattern of fire that generally characterizes a given area (Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre 2003). A fire regime has five major characteristics (Stockdale 2017): cause, frequency, timing (seasonality), extent (size), and magnitude (intensity/severity). Because these characteristics interact with one another, they are generally described in combination rather than separately.

Understanding changes in fire regimes is challenging because they are highly variable in time and space (Lertzman et al. 1998, White and Jentsch 2001). Moreover, only the most recent fires in a landscape can be quantified because vegetation succession, land clearing, and recent fires erase much of the evidence of preceding historical fires. Therefore, complete assessments of historical fire regimes are unavailable. However, because key factors that drive fire behavior (ignition, spread, fuel) have been altered, there is broad agreement that fire regimes in the Eastern Slopes have changed (Rogeau et al. 2016, Stockdale 2017), even though the nature of that change is unclear.

In this report, historical fire regime is defined as the fire regime operating in the study area before 20th century land use change, industrial development, and fire suppression. Information on the historical fire regime in the study area is available from fire history investigations (Rogeau 2009, 2010a), a state-of-knowledge report on fire regimes and disturbance (Stockdale 2011), and a technical report defining historical and recent disturbance regimes (Andison 2011). Because areas of similar topography, vegetation and climate share certain fire regime characteristics, it is also possible to draw from research completed elsewhere in the Eastern Slopes (Andison 1998, Amoroso et al. 2011, Andison and McCleary 2014, Rogeau et al. 2016, Stockdale 2017, Chavardès and Daniels 2016).

While there are gaps in the documentation of the historical fire regime in the study area, these studies suggest the following (see also Table 1):

 The Montane fire regime was dominated by frequent, small, low-severity fires ignited by both people and lightning. Andison (2011) suggested that the Montane experienced a high- severity fire every 60-80 years, and a low- to moderate-severity fire every 15-30 years;

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 18 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment  Fires in the Subalpine were infrequent; occasional large high-severity fires account for most of the burned area;  Infrequent medium- to high-severity fires caused most of the burned area in the Upper and Lower Foothills; although the extent of mixed-severity fires is unclear, it is likely more prevalent than previously thought.

Valley orientation, topography, and elevation are important variables affecting fire regimes throughout the study area (Rogeau 2009). The role of Indigenous peoples in historical fire regimes has been studied extensively in Montane areas of the Rocky Mountains (Tande 1979, White et al. 2003, Rogeau et al. 2016, Stockdale 2017, Chavardès et al. 2018). These studies, combined with oral accounts (Taylor and Dempsey 1999, Snow 2005), indicate that prior to the late 19th century, traditional burning in these areas by Indigenous peoples was a common practice (Snow 2005). Spring burning in montane valleys was used to limit the encroachment of woody vegetation and improve forage availability for culturally valuable wildlife such as bison (White et al. 2003, Taylor and Dempsey 1999). Additional evidence points to the traditional burning of forest beyond montane valleys (Rogeau et al. 2016). This was likely intended to open up dense stands for easier travel and promote culturally important plants such as berry-producing shrubs (Barrett and Arno 1982, Lewis and Ferguson 1988).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 19 Table 1. Summary of the historical fire regime in the study area, based on sources listed in the text.

Fire regime Description characteristic

While both lightning and people started fires, human-caused fires were more common in the Montane compared to other parts of the study area. Lightning- caused fires were likely less common in the Subalpine portion of the study Cause area compared to the more easterly Foothills because the continental divide casts a lightning shadow (Wierzchowski et al. 2002) and subalpine vegetation is generally less flammable and less continuous compared to areas further east.

Historical fire frequency1 in the study area is not well documented. The greatest amount of burning likely occurred in the Montane and the least amount in the Subalpine. Extensive areas in the Subalpine part of the study Frequency area have no evidence of fire before 1800. Andison (2011) estimated the pre- industrial fire cycle2 to be 15-80 years in the Montane, 50-200 years in the Subalpine and 40-110 years in the Upper and Lower Foothills.

Peak fire seasons were likely spring and fall in the Montane, and summer Timing (seasonality) through fall in the Subalpine.

The historical range of fire size in the study area is not known. More Extent (size) continuous fuels in the Foothills likely enabled larger fires compared to the Subalpine where complex topography and treeline create fuel discontinuities.

Fires in the Montane were likely low severity, constrained by a shortage of fuel buildup due to frequent burning and limited tree cover. Fires elsewhere in Magnitude (intensity/ the study area were moderate- to high-severity. Mixed (moderate and high) severity) severity fires in the Foothills were likely more prevalent than previously thought.

1 Fire frequency is a measure of the rate at which fires occur on the landscape (Stockdale 2017) 2 Fire cycle is the length of time required to burn an area equivalent to 100% of the study area (Stockdale 2017)

Recent fire regime

The recent fire regime in the study area is better known than the historical regime because the location, perimeter, and other properties of a fire can be characterized shortly after it occurs. While the perimeter of all fires that burned since 1961, and large (>200 ha) fires that burned since 1941, are available in government databases (Fig. 2), the relatively short duration of these records (60 years) limits the extent to which they fully characterize the fire regime. Based on this information, the recent (20th century) fire regime in the study area is summarized in Table 2.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 20 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Figure 2. Wildfire extent (a) and occurrence (b) in the study area. Wildfire extent for 1941-2016 and wildfire occurrence for 1961-2016 obtained from Alberta Agriculture and Forestry’s wildfire perimeter dataset (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017c) and historic wildfire dataset (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017b), respectively. Only wildfires >200 ha (Class E) are displayed in (a).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 21 Table 2. Summary of the recent fire regime in the study area, modified from Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (2012), Rogeau (2009), Stockdale (2011) and Andison (2011).

Fire regime Description characteristic

Most (68%) fires in the study area are caused by people rather than lightning, especially in the Montane near Highway 11 and Ya Ha Tinda. Anthropogenic Cause causes account for most of the area burned in the Montane and Lower Foothills.

Very few fires occur in the Subalpine whereas numerous fires occur in the Montane. Infrequent large fires in the Foothills burn the majority of area. Frequency Andison (2011) estimated the current fire cycle to be 200-400 years in the Montane and 300-600 years in the Subalpine, Upper Foothills, and Lower Foothills.

Montane fires occur in any month, however, more area burns later in Timing (seasonality) summer. Summer fires dominate in the Subalpine while fires in the Foothills occur from May through August.

The Montane is dominated by small fires. Small- to medium-sized fires account for most of the area burned elsewhere in the study area. Infrequent Extent (size) large fires in the Subalpine burn the majority of the area. Spread of fires in the Subalpine and Upper Foothills is constrained by proximity to mountainous terrain.

Magnitude (intensity/ Low-severity fires dominate the Montane. Moderate- and high-severity fires severity) dominate elsewhere in the study area.

The main difference between historical and recent fire regimes in the study area is a decreased fire frequency; specifically, a longer fire cycle (Rogeau 2010b, Stockdale 2011). This is consistent with findings elsewhere in the Eastern Slopes (White et al. 2003, Van Wagner et al. 2006, Rogeau et al. 2016, Chavardès et al. 2018). Factors that may contribute to this change in fire regime include the cessation of traditional burning by Indigenous peoples in the late 19th century and fire suppression several decades later (Cumming et al. 2005). Intentional (or escaped) burning by Indigenous peoples in the study area largely ceased in the late 19th century after Indigenous peoples were relocated from their traditional lands (Schaffer 1908, Whyte 1985, Price 1999). Active suppression of human-caused and lightning-caused fires began around 1947 with the formation of the Eastern Rockies Forest Conservation Board (Tunstell 1962) and the construction of ranger stations, lookout towers, and fire roads (Murphy 1985) including Forestry Trunk Road 734 through

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 22 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Nordegg (Fig. 1). Andison (2011) noted that fire control is more effective at eliminating low- to moderate-severity fires, and less effective at controlling high-severity fires.

The potential role of climate as a factor influencing fire regime change is unclear. Warmer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt observed in the study area since 1951 (see “Overview of climate and streamflow”) have likely improved burning conditions, leading to an increase, rather than decrease, in fire frequency. As noted previously, limited knowledge of historical fire regimes and complex interactions among drivers of fire behavior, such as ignition and spread probabilities, make it challenging to identify causes of change (Lertzman et al. 1998).

Future fire regime

The frequency, severity, and size of wildfires in the Eastern Slopes is likely to increase due to a combination of increasing fuel loads in older forest stands (Keane 2002, Gallant et al. 2003, Stephens et al. 2014, Parks et al. 2015) and climate change (Flannigan et al. 2001, Schoennagel et al. 2017). Climate-related influences include increasing frequency of extreme fire weather (Wang et al. 2015), a longer fire season (Riley and Loehman 2016), and increasing rate of fire ignition.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 23 Forest harvesting

From 1961 to 2016, 2,230 km2 of forest was harvested in the study area, which is over four times the area burned during the same period (Table 3, Fig. 3). Almost all (96%) of the forest harvesting in the study area has occurred in the Foothills Natural Region, mainly east of Forestry Trunk Road 734 (Fig. 4). Approximately 18% (2,230 km2) of this Natural Region was harvested during this 55- year period, while less than 2% (199 km2) of this same area burned (Table 3).

Table 3. Area burned (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017b) and harvested (Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins 2018) in each Natural Subregion (Natural Regions Committee 2006).

Area burned Area harvested Total area Natural Subregion 1961-2016 1961-2016 (km2) (km²) (km²)

Alpine 5,646 2 0

Subalpine 5,554 149 79

Montane 446 122 3

Upper Foothills 5,885 41 1,138

Lower Foothills 6,342 158 1,092

Central & Dry Mixedwood 804 10 1

All Natural Subregions 24,677 483 2,313

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 24 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Figure 3. Cumulative area of disturbance by fire and forest harvesting in each Natural Subregion in the study area since 1961. Sources: Alberta Agriculture and Forestry (2017b), Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 25 Figure 4. Forest harvest areas in the study area, 1961-2016. Source: Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 26 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Linear disturbances

While the western half of the study area (west of Forestry Trunk Road 734) is relatively free of linear disturbances, most watersheds in the eastern half of the study area are heavily dissected by roads, seismic lines, trails, and other linear disturbances associated with the energy, forestry, and agricultural sectors (Figs. 5, 6, 7). The combined density of all linear disturbances ranges from 0 to 6.4 km/km2, with the highest densities along the eastern margin of the study area (Figs. 6, 7). Only the western half of this landscape can be considered remote with an area of interior habitat exceeding 80% in most western watersheds (including the Bighorn Backcountry). In contrast, interior habitat comprises less than 50% of most eastern watersheds (Fig. 8).

While human use is likely a significant driver of many ecological responses to linear disturbances, limited information on the frequency, timing, and type (e.g., motorized versus non-motorized) of human use is available in the study area. Within the National Parks, Provincial Wilderness Areas, and Public Land Use Zones comprising the Bighorn Backcountry, vehicle use is highly regulated. Within the Bighorn Backcountry, recreational use of trails (including off-highway vehicle use) is regulated to restrict access to designated trails and seasons (Government of Alberta 2018a). Off- highway vehicle use is permitted on most public lands east of Forestry Trunk Road 734.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 27 Figure 5. Roads (a) and all linear disturbances (b) in the study area. Source: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 28 Figure 6. Density of roads (a) and all linear disturbances (b) in study area watersheds. Source: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018). See Appendix A for watershed boundaries.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 29 Figure 7. Distribution of the density of roads (a) and all linear disturbances (b) in the study area. Source: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018).

Bighorn Backcountry

Parks and Prov. Wilderness Areas Rest of the Study Area

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 30 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Figure 8. Interior habitat in study area watersheds. Sources: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018). Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018), Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018), 2016 Human Footprint Inventory (Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute 2018). See Appendix A for watershed boundaries.

Bighorn Backcountry Parks and Prov. Wilderness Areas Rest of the Study Area

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 31 Overview of climate and streamflow Climate variability and change

Temperatures along the Eastern Slopes of the Rocky Mountains have been increasing over the last century, with winter warming faster than summer (Vincent et al. 2015, O’Neil et al. 2017a). The number of extreme cold days has decreased while the number of heatwaves (defined as 6 or more consecutive days during which the maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile) has increased (Kienzle et al. 2017). Although total annual precipitation has changed very little, there has been a significant decrease in both winter precipitation and in the proportion of the annual precipitation falling as snow (Vincent et al. 2015, DeBeer et al. 2016, Kienzle et al. 2017, O’Neil et al. 2017a). In concert with higher average winter and spring temperatures there has been an earlier spring snowmelt, a shorter snow-cover season (Brown and Braaten 1998, DeBeer et al. 2016), an increase in winter melt events as well as rain-on-snow events, and less water stored in the spring snowpack (Vincent et al. 2015, MacDonald et al. 2012, O’Neil et al. 2017a).

Changes in the study area’s climate during the recent past (since 1951), generated using the ClimateNA software tool (http://www.climatewna.com; Wang et al. 2016), are consistent with the above findings reported for the Eastern Slopes (Table 4). These estimates show a large increase in winter (December-February) temperatures, and smaller increases in average annual temperature (Tables A1-A2). This analysis further indicates very little change in total annual precipitation during this period, however, it shows a reduction in snowfall. Accuracy of the modelled temperature estimates is higher than estimates of precipitation (Mbogga 2009). In addition, annual averages (e.g., mean annual air temperature) are more accurate than seasonal values and derived climate variables (e.g., frost-free period, precipitation as snow) are less accurate than observed variables (Wang et al. 2006, Mbogga et al. 2009, Wang et al. 2012).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 32 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Table 4. Summary of recent (since ~1950) trends in climate parameters in the Eastern Slopes. Sources are listed in text.

Climate parameter Trend in the Eastern Slopes

Temperature

Annual temperature Higher

Winter temperature Higher

Summer temperature Higher

Extreme cold days Less frequent

Heatwaves More frequent

Winter melt events More frequent

Precipitation-related

Total annual precipitation Little change

Snowfall Less

Proportion of precipitation falling as snow Less

Timing of snowmelt Earlier

Snow-cover season Shorter

Snowline Higher elevation

Streamflow

The Eastern Slopes have long been valued as source headwaters for major river systems in the Prairie Provinces. Changes in temperature and precipitation, along with related changes in snowmelt, river ice and glacier water export, have altered streamflow regimes in the Eastern Slopes (Schindler and Donahue 2006). Multiple studies point to earlier spring peak streamflow and river ice breakup (Zhang et al. 2001, Nemeth et al. 2012, Bawden et al. 2015, Vincent et al. 2015), although trends in other streamflow parameters in the Eastern Slopes are highly variable (e.g., Zhang et al. 2001, Rood et al. 2008, Nemeth 2012, Bawden 2014, DeBeer et al. 2016).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 33 Snowmelt is a key driver of streamflow in the Eastern Slopes because the depth of the spring snowpack strongly influences the timing and magnitude of the spring freshet (Barnett et al. 2005). More winter melt events and rain-on-snow events alter both the properties of the snowpack and the amount of water contained in the snowpack, which ultimately affect the timing and magnitude of spring and early summer streamflow (Barnett et al. 2005). Because the timing of river ice formation and breakup is strongly correlated with air temperature, higher temperatures have led to earlier river ice breakup in the spring breakup (Zhang et al. 2001, Bawden et al. 2015, Vincent et al. 2015). Finally, while glacier meltwater accounts for 1-5% of the annual discharge for rivers exiting the Eastern Slopes (Marshall et al. 2011), the glacial meltwater contribution to individual streams and rivers depends on the glacier volume and other land cover types in the contributing watershed. Rapidly shrinking glaciers (Demuth and Keller 2006, World Glacier Monitoring Service 2017) are expected to reduce the contribution of glacial melt to stream and river flows throughout the Eastern Slopes (Demuth and Pietroniro 2003, Marshall et al. 2011, DeBeer et al. 2016, Luce 2018). For example, runoff from the Columbia Icefield (which feeds the North Saskatchewan River) may have already attained its maximum meltwater contribution, also referred to as ‘peak water’ (Huss and Hock 2018).

Analysis of trends in streamflow (daily discharge, m³/s) during each month of the open water season (April-October) for the period 1984-2013 showed significant (p<0.1) increases in streamflow during the early part of the season (May and June) and significant (p<0.1) decreases in the latter part of the season (August and September). No statistically significant changes in April, July, or October streamflow were observed in the streamflow record (Fig. 9). The largest and most spatially consistent trends in streamflow were observed in June when 13 of the 17 stations had a statistically significant increase in streamflow (between 0.02 and 2.1 m³/s/year); these stations are located in the central and eastern parts of the study area. In May, statistically significant increases in streamflow were observed at two stations in the eastern part of study area. In August and September, statistically significant decreases in streamflow were observed at four and two gauging stations, respectively, all located in the central part of the study area. Future climate and streamflow

Observed changes in the climate of the Eastern Slopes are expected to accelerate over the next several decades (Field et al. 2008, IPCC 2013). To evaluate potential changes in future climate of the study area, climate variables were projected for the period 2071-2100 under two different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5, see Appendix A). This analysis suggested that mean annual air temperatures are likely to increase by 3-5°C by the end of the century (depending on the global emissions scenario) compared to the 1980-2010 climate normal period (Tables A3-A4). Total annual precipitation is projected to increase, and snowfall is expected to decrease (Tables A3-A4).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 34 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Figure 9. Streamflow trends in the study area, 1984-2013, based on hydrometric data for seventeen stations in the study area. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018). See Appendix A for a description of methods.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 35 Higher air temperatures along the Eastern Slopes are expected to result in an upward shift in the snowline, an earlier and more rapid spring snowmelt and a decrease in snow water storage during summer (Kienzle et al. 2012, MacDonald et al. 2012, Dibike et al. 2018). When considering future climate projections it is important to note that, while there is some inherent uncertainty in the climate models, there is a much larger amount of uncertainty around emissions scenarios which is difficult to quantify (IPCC 2013 Chapter 12, Knutti and Sedláček 2013). The spread in predictions of future climate depends largely on the choice of emissions scenario which describes future atmospheric carbon rates and is difficult to predict with a high degree of certainty (IPCC 2013 Chapter 12, Knutti and Sedláček 2013) (see Appendix A for further discussion of uncertainty).

Projected increases in temperature, shifts in precipitation, associated changes in snowpack, river ice, and shrinking glaciers have important implications for future streamflow in the Eastern Slopes. Simulations of streamflow for the Cline River watersheds in the westernmost part of the study area suggested that streamflow is likely to increase during winter and spring (Kienzle et al. 2012). Although streamflow predictions in snow-dominated and glacier-fed watersheds, such as those in the study area for this report, are highly uncertain (Kerkhoven and Gan 2011, DeBeer et al. 2016), a continued trend towards an earlier spring freshet and an increase in mid-winter melt events, both of which affect streamflow, are expected (O’Neil et al. 2017b). Additionally, higher winter temperatures may increase the likelihood of mid-winter river ice breakup events which are already occurring at lower elevations in western Canada (Newton et al. 2017, Rokaya et al. 2018).

Potential ecological responses to land use stressors Altered fire regimes

The ecological influence of fire in conifer forests of western and northern North America was summarized by Heinselman and Wright (1973 in Tymstra 2005). Fire alters the physical-chemical environment, regulates dry-matter accumulation, controls plant species and communities, determines wildlife habitat patterns and populations, controls forest insects, parasites, fungi and other pathogens, and controls major ecosystem processes and characteristics.

Expected ecological responses to the altered fire regime in the study area stem from the following factors (Table 5):

 Limited creation of post-fire conditions suitable for germination and growth of pioneer and early seral plants

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 36 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment  Increased area of mature and old forest through succession of younger seral stages  Encroachment of trees and shrubs into non-forest areas such as montane grasslands  Limited post-fire alteration of stream and riverine ecosystems (flow regime, temperature, nutrients, sediments and biota)  Increased likelihood of future wildfire

Because fire is a key driver of vegetation disturbance and succession in the Eastern Slopes, an altered fire regime has implications for forest ecosystems. Much of the even-aged forest created by high-severity forest fires during previous centuries has not been replaced by more recent fires, leading to homogenization of the forest landscape (Tymstra et al. 2005). A reduced frequency of low- and moderate-severity fires that alter stand structure and composition without completely replacing the dominant cohort of trees (Amoroso et al. 2018) has likely also altered stand structure and composition. Overall, an altered fire regime has likely reduced the extent of early successional post-fire vegetation communities, increased the area of mature and old forest, and reduced the diversity of seral stages across the landscape.

While species that occupy mature and older seral stages of forest would benefit from such changes, species that use post-fire vegetation communities, and those with large home ranges that use a diversity of seral stages, would not benefit (Table 5). For example, increases in canopy closure as forest stands mature may limit understory food resources for moose and other ungulates (Telfer 1970, Peek 1974, Proulx and Kariz 2005, Street et al. 2015). Conversely, tree mortality and canopy gap formation in older stands may increase food availability and habitat quality for such species (Osko et al. 2004). Moose populations in the study area have likely declined in recent years (R. Corrigan personal communication May 31, 2018), although the relative contributions of habitat change, human-caused mortality, and other factors are unclear. Grizzly bears are an example of a species with a large home range that uses a diversity of seral stages (Hamer and Herrero 1987); an altered fire regime has likely reduced the overall value of the landscape for this species (McLellan and Hovey 2001). Finally, whitebark pine and limber pine are examples of species that colonize post-fire habitats (Webster and Johnson 2000, Kendall and Keane 2001, Campbell and Antos 2003); their response to reduced fire frequency is likely negative due to the encroachment of other tree species, such as spruce, in the absence of fire (Murray et al. 1998, Shepherd et al. 2018).

The encroachment of trees and shrubs into montane grasslands has been observed in Jasper (Tande 1979, Rhemtulla et al. 2002) and Banff (White et al. 2012) National Parks. Grazing mammals, such as bison and bighorn sheep, likely respond negatively to such changes in both montane and subalpine areas (Demarchi et al. 2000, Sachro et al. 2005). Browsing mammals, such as moose, may respond positively to the encroachment of woody plant species (Krefting et al. 1974) in the Montane Natural Subregion.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 37 The cessation of traditional burning by Indigenous peoples in the late 19th century was coincident with the loss of another form of disturbance (bison grazing) in the Montane. Bison were historically abundant on a seasonal basis in montane areas of the North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River valleys (Kay et al. 1999, Heitzmann 2009) and their extirpation during the late 1800’s (Notzke 1985, Archer 1994) may contribute to increasing tree cover in formerly grazed habitats (Campbell et al. 1994). A herd of 16 bison was re-introduced near the headwaters of the Red Deer River in Banff National Park in 2017 (Parks Canada 2017).

An altered fire regime has likely also reduced the frequency of events that alter stream and riverine ecosystems in the study area. The response of rivers and streams to wildfire varies according to the properties of a given fire event (size, intensity), and the topography, surficial materials, and vegetation of the contributing watershed (Neary et al. 2005). For example, hydrological and other measurements after the 22,000 ha 2003 Lost Creek Fire in southwestern Alberta (Silins et al. 2016) point to wildfire-caused changes in streamflow, water temperature, nutrient and sediment concentration, and the structure, function, and composition of biotic communities (Silins et al. 2008, 2009, 2014). Importantly, although the duration of altered streamflow was relatively short (less than a decade), changes to water quality can be long-lasting. For example, elevated (but variable) nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads were observed more than a decade after the Lost Creek Fire (Silins et al. 2016). By reducing the frequency of such stream-altering events, an altered fire regime in the study area has likely reduced the biological diversity of stream environments.

Finally, while the altered fire regime has likely contributed to a reduction in post-fire vegetation and fire-altered streams, the increased risk of future wildfire (Flannigan et al. 2001) could lead to a range of responses, depending on the frequency, size, and severity of future fires. Fire size and severity have important implications for many species. For example, while five-needled pines are known to colonize post-fire habitats, large, intense wildfires could kill mature, cone-producing trees, with negative population impacts (Alberta Whitebark and Limber Pine Recovery Team 2014a, 2014b). In addition, post-fire management of future fires (e.g., salvage logging) also affects post- fire ecological responses (Lindenmayer et al. 2008, Silins et al. 2009, 2014).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 38 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Table 5. Summary of potential ecological responses of selected species to land use and climate change in the study area. Supporting evidence for each entry is presented in the text. + Positive response; - Negative response; + - Both positive and negative response; 0 Response is indirect or unlikely.

needled needled

Bison Bighorn Sheep Moose Grizzly Bear Trout Bull 5 pines

Altered fire regime

Encroachment of trees and shrubs into non-forest areas such as montane - - + - 0 - grasslands

Limited creation of post-fire conditions suitable for germination & growth of - - + - - 0 - pioneer and early seral plants

Increased area of mature and old forest through succession of younger 0 0 0 0 0 0 seral stages

Limited post-fire alteration of stream and riverine ecosystems (flow regime, 0 0 0 0 + - 0 temperature, nutrients, sediments, and biota)

Increased likelihood of future wildfire + + + - + + - +

Forest harvesting

Creates conditions suitable for germination & growth of early seral plants 0 0 + + 0 0

Reduced area of mature and old forest 0 0 + + 0 0

Post-harvest alteration of stream and riverine ecosystems (flow regime, 0 0 0 0 + - 0 temperature, nutrients, sediments, and biota)

Linear disturbances

May alter behaviour and increase risk of human-caused wildlife mortality, 0 - - - - 0 depending on type and level of human use

Creation of conditions suitable for establishment of disturbance-adapted + + - + + 0 0 plants (e.g., higher incidence of invasive species)

Potential alteration of stream and river water quality from increased 0 0 0 0 - 0 sediment inputs at stream crossings

Climate change

Shifting and altered vegetation communities (upslope movement of treeline, expansion of montane grasslands, transition from coniferous to deciduous + + - + + - 0 + - forest, and changes in community composition)

Altered streamflow and increased water temperature 0 0 0 0 - 0

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 39 Forest harvesting

Commercial forest harvesting, which occurs mainly in the Foothills Natural Region east of Forestry Trunk Road 734 within the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins, may partly offset the positive and negative responses to an altered fire regime. However, while forest harvesting and fire bear some similarities (e.g., both clearcutting and high-severity fires significantly alter forest structure and composition and create a dominant cohort of trees), there are significant differences between the two disturbance regimes (Bergeron et al. 1999, 2002). While forest harvesting emulates some characteristics of a fire regime, it is far less variable in frequency, size, and severity (Stockwell et al. 2017).

Expected responses to forest harvesting in the study area stem from the following (Table 5):

 Establishment of young forest stands  Reduced area of mature and old forest  Post-harvest alteration of stream and riverine ecosystems

Forest harvesting has increased the extent of early successional (post-harvest) communities, decreased the area of mature and old forest, and increased the diversity of seral stages across the Foothills Natural Region portion of the study area. While species that occupy mature and older seral stages of forest do not benefit from such changes, species that use post-harvest vegetation communities, and those with large home ranges that use a diversity of seral stages, would likely benefit (Table 5). For example, moose and deer likely respond positively to increased food availability in stands regenerating after forest harvesting (Proulx and Kariz 2005, Anderson et al. 2018). Grizzly bears may also benefit from increased food availability in recently harvested stands (Nielsen et al. 2004a, 2004b), although they are rarely observed in the eastern portion of the study area where forest harvesting occurs (Fig. 10).

Like fire, forest harvesting may alter the hydrological regime of stream and riverine ecosystems by changing the structure and composition of vegetation in a watershed (Zhang et al. 2017). However, the range of variability in many fire regime characteristics (e.g., frequency, size, and severity) make it difficult to formulate an overall assessment of differences between ecological responses to forest harvesting versus fire. For example, the hydrological response (streamflow, water quality) to forest harvesting in a watershed is likely greater than the hydrological response to a small, low-intensity fire, but less than a large, high-intensity fire in the same watershed. In general, forest harvesting likely invokes a narrower range of hydrological and ecological responses, stemming from the lower variability in the frequency, size, and severity of forest harvesting events compared to fire events (McRae et al. 2001).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 40 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Studies further suggest the intensity and duration of hydrological responses to forest harvesting varies depending on climate, topography, time since harvesting, and the proportion of area in a watershed that is harvested (Buttle 2011, Zhang et al. 2017, Li et al. 2018). The removal of trees may increase shallow subsurface flow and surface runoff to hydrologically connected streams via increased snow depth and decreased evapotranspiration in harvested areas (Guillemette et al. 2005, Zhang et al. 2017). These mechanisms may explain the altered seasonal timing and magnitude of streamflow after harvesting in southwestern Alberta (Pomeroy et al. 2012, Harder et al. 2015, Rothwell et al. 2016), central British Columbia (Winkler et al. 2017), and southeastern British Columbia (Whitaker et al. 2002). The magnitude of such responses is expected to decline as tree cover and biomass increases in harvested areas (Zhang et al. 2017).

Linear disturbances

As noted previously, while the western half of the study area is relatively free of linear disturbances, most watersheds in the eastern half of the study area are heavily dissected by roads, seismic lines, trails, and other linear disturbances (Figs. 6, 7, 8). Expected responses to linear disturbances in the study area stem from the following (Table 5):

 Altered wildlife behaviour and increased risk of human-caused wildlife mortality  Creation of conditions suitable for establishment of disturbance-adapted plants (e.g., higher incidence of invasive species)  Potential alteration of stream and river water quality from increased sediment inputs at stream crossings

Altered wildlife habitat use and population dynamics

Several syntheses of evidence for wildlife response to roads, trails, and other linear disturbances have been completed (Trombulak and Frissell 2000, Gaines et al. 2003, Ouren et al. 2007, Brady and Richardson 2017, Farr et al. 2017). While responses vary widely among the hundreds of studies reviewed in these syntheses, key findings include behavioural responses such as altered movements, reduced habitat use, and connectivity and population responses such as decreased productivity and increased mortality. Potential responses to linear disturbances have been studied in all focal wildlife species considered in this report, including bison (Bruggeman et al. 2006), bighorn sheep (Papouchis et al. 2001), grizzly bears (Lamb et al. 2018), moose (Canfield et al. 1999), and bull trout (Ripley et al. 2005); see Appendix B for additional examples.

The ecological response of grizzly bears to land use has been studied more extensively than other species included in the systematic literature map (Fig. 11), and the strong negative relationship between grizzly bears and linear disturbances is well-documented (McLellan and Shackleton et al. 1988, Nielsen et al. 2004c, Boulanger et al. 2013, Boulanger and Stenhouse 2014, McLellan 2015;

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 41 see also Proctor et al. 2018). Negative encounters with people are a significant cause of grizzly bear mortality, and most human-caused grizzly bear deaths occur within 500 m of linear disturbances (Benn 1998, Benn and Herrero 2002, Boulanger and Stenhouse 2014, McLellan 2015). Ironically, some grizzly bears may be attracted to certain types of linear disturbances, likely because of increased food availability along habitat edges (Graham et al. 2010). Other grizzly bears avoid linear disturbances, especially when traffic volume is high (Northrup et al. 2012), possibly because they perceive increased risk of negative encounters with people (Mace and Waller 1996, Roever et al. 2010). Traffic avoidance in the study area along Highway 11 has altered grizzly bear movements and created two genetically distinct subpopulations north and south of the highway (Proctor et al. 2012).

Multiple studies suggest that grizzly bear populations may not be viable in areas where open road density exceeds approximately 0.6 km/km2 (Mace et al. 1996, Boulanger and Stenhouse 2014, Lamb et al. 2017). Most watersheds in the eastern part of the study area exceed this threshold (Fig. 7). Therefore, although suitable habitat is present throughout the study area (Fig. 10c), high mortality risk associated with human activity in these eastern watersheds (Fig. 10d) may partly explain why grizzly bears are found mainly west of Forestry Trunk Road 734 (Figs. 10a, 10b). Low densities east of the trunk road may also be a legacy of historical range contraction and population decline caused by overexploitation, population control, and land use change since the 1800s (Alberta Fish and Wildlife Division 1990). While repeated population inventories point to an increase in grizzly bear populations in part of the study area (Boulanger et al. 2005a, Stenhouse et al. 2015), the highest densities remain west of Forestry Trunk Road 734 (Figs. 10a, 10b).

Most studies of grizzly bear responses to human use of linear disturbances have focused primarily on roads. While there is evidence for combined effects of roads and trails on grizzly bear mortality risk and behaviour (Nielsen et al. 2004c, Johnson et al. 2005), the specific contributions of trails versus roads is unclear (Linke et al. 2005).

Negative relationships to linear disturbance have also been observed for bull trout, although evidence for an ecological threshold (as seems possible for grizzly bears) is lacking. While bull trout populations have declined over most watersheds in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins (Fig. 12), the role of linear disturbances relative to other potential causes such as angling mortality and competition with introduced fish species (Alberta Sustainable Resource Development 2012) is unclear. Previous studies have found that linear disturbance density may be negatively correlated with bull trout occurrence (Quigley and Arbelbide 1997, Rieman et al. 1997, Dunham and Reiman 1999), abundance (Scrimgeour et al. 2003, Ripley et al. 2005), and reproduction (Quigley and Arbelbide 1997, Baxter and McPhail 1999, Baxter et al. 1999). Potential mechanisms include local extirpation of reaches upstream of culverts that limit fish passage (MacPherson et al. 2012, Maitland et al. 2016), increased angler-caused mortality from easier

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 42 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment access by anglers to otherwise remote stream reaches (Alberta Sustainable Resource Development 2012), and sedimentation of gravel spawning beds downstream of watercourse crossings (McCaffery et al. 2007).

Establishment of disturbance-adapted plants

Surface disturbance by motorized and non-motorized travel along trails and other linear disturbances may facilitate the establishment of disturbance-adapted plants in landscapes where such species are otherwise rare (Parendes and Jones 2000, Hansen and Clevenger 2005, Rooney 2005, Nepal and Way 2007). Range expansions of both terrestrial (Rooney 2005) and aquatic (Waterkeyn et al. 2010, Banha et al. 2014) invasive species via linear disturbances have been documented in other areas. Such findings suggest that invasive species may be more common in the eastern part of the study area where linear disturbances and other activities are concentrated, however, specific information on invasive species was not obtained for this report.

Alteration of stream and river water quality

Linear disturbances that cross streams and rivers in the study area are potential sources of sediment that could potentially impact stream and river water quality. While there are numerous linear disturbance crossings in the study area, their influence on stream water quality is not known. All types of linear disturbances are potential sources of sediment input, including roads, trails used by off-highway vehicles, (Chin et al. 2004, Marion et al. 2014), and trails used only for non- motorized travel (Adams 1998). The extent and magnitude of such impacts are strongly influenced by the composition of surface materials, slope, climate, and other environmental factors (Ouren et al. 2007). Additional variability stems from variation in the frequency, timing, and type of human use of linear disturbances.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 43 Figure 10. Grizzly bear density (a, b), habitat value (c), and mortality risk (d) in the study area. Density estimates (Boulanger et al. 2018) are based on population inventories conducted in Bear Management Area (BMA) 3 (Yellowhead) in 2004 (Boulanger et al. 2005a) and BMA 4 (Clearwater) in 2005 (Boulanger et al 2005b), and are shown here for sampling grid centroids. Grizzly bear habitat value and mortality risk are modelled for 2015 conditions (Source: fRI Research Grizzly Bear Program).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 44 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Figure 11. The number of studies meeting the systematic mapping inclusion criteria, which describe evidence of ecological response to land use and associated stressors by each species. Note that multiple studies may be reported for single research articles when multiple stressors or species were described. See Appendix B for a description of methods.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 45 Figure 12. Historic and current adult bull trout density in the study area. Density ranks were assigned to each HUC 8 watershed based on naïve occupancy (proportion of sites were bull trout were detected) supplemented by angler catch rates and expert opinion. Data source: Alberta Environment and Parks (2018b).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 46 Potential ecological responses to climate variability and change

Climate regulates the function, structure and composition of ecosystems, and ongoing climate change is expected to have far-reaching effects on ecosystem properties throughout the study area. As summarized above, the study area is predicted to become warmer, especially in winter, with increasing annual precipitation and a decline in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow.

Ecological responses to climate change are difficult to predict because relevant biotic and abiotic interactions are complex and poorly understood (Heller and Zavaleta 2009). However, responses likely stem from the following:

Because vegetation communities are strongly influenced by climate, shifting climatic conditions are expected to be accompanied by shifts in vegetation communities. However, differences in the response of individual species are also likely to cause changes in the composition of vegetation communities. In addition, many long-lived species such as trees may persist even as climate changes (Schneider et al. 2016), further complicating predictions of vegetation response. Fire may enable climate-induced shifts in vegetation by removing dominant tree species (Stralberg et al. 2018).

Upslope movement of treeline may negatively affect species whose range is associated with this zone (Aitken et al. 2008). For example, a bioclimatic model developed for western North America predicted declines in suitable whitebark pine habitat of 70% by 2030 (Warwell et al. 2007). Limber pine occurs at lower elevations than whitebark pine and may therefore have greater potential to shift upslope, although this could be limited by unsuitable soils or unfavourable terrain (Maher and Germino 2006).

Expansion of climate conditions suited to montane grasslands (Schneider 2013, Schneider and Bayne 2015) may increase the availability of winter range for grazing mammals such as bison and bighorn sheep. Winter range availability is a limiting factor for both bison (DelGiudice et al. 1994) and bighorn sheep populations (Demarchi et al. 2000). This potentially beneficial impact of climate change could be offset by reduced forage quality from the spread of invasive plants (Dekker 2009).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 47 Additional climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities relevant to the study area are uncertain. A longer growing season may favour the establishment of deciduous trees at the expense of coniferous species (Barnett et al. 2005, Landhäusser et al. 2010), although the rate of this transition likely depends strongly on future fire frequency (Rocca et al. 2014, Stralberg et al. 2018). Increased cover of aspen, willow, and other deciduous forage species would likely benefit browsing mammals such as moose.

Species-specific responses to climate change are expected that are not directly related to shifts in vegetation communities. For example, moose may benefit from reduced snow depths expected in the Eastern Slopes (Luckman 1998, MacDonald et al. 2012, Pomeroy et al. 2015, Dibike et al. 2018) by reducing the energy required for movement, and improving predator avoidance (Nelson and Mech 1986). Conversely, moose may be subject to increased incidence of heat stress due to higher daytime temperatures in winter and summer (Renecker and Hudson 1986, Murray et al. 2006). Moose may also be subject to increased frequency and severity of pathogens and parasites such as winter ticks (Samuel 2007). Climate-induced population expansion of white-tailed deer (Dawe and Boutin 2016), which are alternate hosts for parasites such as liver flukes and meningeal worms (Whitlaw and Lankester 1994, Murray et al. 2006), could also negatively affect moose populations by increasing parasite-related physiological stress and mortality.

Additional species-specific responses include those of grizzly bears; while they may prove to be relatively resilient to the ecological effects of climate change given their phenotypic plasticity, several potential climate-related impacts have been identified. Climate change is expected to cause shifts in the ranges of key grizzly bear foods, including alpine sweetvetch (Hedysarum alpinum; Roberts et al. 2014) and other food plants in subalpine meadows that may transition to vegetation communities dominated by trees and shrubs. Phenological shifts in key foods such as fruiting plant species may also change the probability of human-bear conflicts (Deacy et al. 2017), as could a decrease in the length of the overwinter denning period (Pigeon et al. 2016).

Within stream and riverine environments, higher water temperatures, that are likely to accompany increasing air temperature, could affect cold-water fish species such as bull trout through a range of mechanisms including habitat loss, range contraction, decreased viability of eggs and fry (Eby et al. 2014). Elevated stream temperatures may also increase competition and hybridization with invasive species such as brook trout, brown trout, and lake trout, which prefer warmer water (McMahon et al. 2007, Muhlfeld et al. 2014, Muhlfeld et al. 2017). However, recent modeling of stream warming rates and climate velocities suggest that mountain stream environments may be highly resistant to temperature increases and could act as important refugia for cold-water species such as bull trout in the coming century (Isaak et al. 2016). Reduced winter streamflow would likely negatively affect movements of bull trout and other fish species in the region, although interactions between winter flow and ice cover are uncertain (Brown 1999).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 48 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Priority research and monitoring needs

While much is known about the ecological and anthropogenic drivers of ecosystem responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River basins, there are also significant knowledge gaps as demonstrated in this report.

Key findings from the overview of land use stressors, climate variability and change, streamflow, and ecological responses include:

 Although there are substantial gaps in our knowledge of the historical fire regime, elements of the fire regime in the study area have likely been altered by a combination of factors, including the cessation of traditional burning by Indigenous peoples and fire suppression. Expected responses to reduced fire frequency and smaller burned area include shifts in the distribution and composition of vegetation communities, and concomitant changes in wildlife populations. The likelihood of fire is probably increasing due to increasing fuel load, increasing ignitions, and warmer, drier fire seasons.  Forest harvesting has replaced wildfire as the dominant stand-replacing disturbance in the Foothills part of the study area over the past several decades. While forest harvesting and fire bear some similarities, there are significant differences between the two disturbance regimes. Like high-severity fires, forest harvesting establishes young forest stands, reduces the area of mature forest, and potentially alters the hydrological dynamics of stream and riverine ecosystems by changing the structure and composition of vegetation in a watershed. Major differences between historical fire regimes and forest harvesting include the mechanism of disturbance (fire versus mechanical), and the lower range of variability in the frequency, size, and severity of forest harvesting events compared to historical fire regimes.  Linear disturbances, forest harvest areas, and other anthropogenic disturbances in the study area are concentrated east of Forestry Trunk Road 734. Interior habitat comprises less than 50% of most eastern watersheds while most western watersheds have relatively high levels of interior habitat. Expected ecological responses to high densities of linear disturbances include altered wildlife behaviour and increased mortality risk, establishment of disturbance-adapted plants, and potential alteration of stream and river water quality from increased sediment inputs at stream crossings.  Regional climate variability and change are expected to have far-reaching effects on wildlife and other ecosystem attributes in the study area. Potential responses to climate change stem from shifting vegetation communities, altered community composition, and changing streamflow regimes. Analysis of open water season streamflow records in the study area indicate that June streamflow has increased over the past few decades which,

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 49 accompanied by additional changes in hydrological regimes, has implications for the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems and downstream communities.

Two types of investigation would address priority knowledge gaps constraining more informed decisions on land use and human activities in the study area. First, there is a need for applied research to increase the knowledge available to develop evidence-based land use policies and plans. Second, there is a need for targeted monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of current and future land use policies and plans against stated environmental outcomes. While these two types of investigation (applied research and effectiveness monitoring) are conceptually similar, effectiveness monitoring (the use of scientific methods to address specific questions about the effectiveness of management) generally involves active collaboration between scientists and managers (Lindenmayer and Likens 2009). While applied research projects benefit from such collaborations, the active participation of managers may be limited.

Applied research priorities

Among the many knowledge gaps constraining the development of evidence-based land use plans in the study area, three stand out: historical fire regimes, environmental drivers of hydrological and water quality regimes, and ecological response to land use. New and ongoing applied research is needed to address these gaps.

Improved reconstruction of historical fire regimes

Fire history studies are needed to better characterize key elements of the historical fire regime (cause, frequency, timing, extent, and magnitude) in the study area. This would further increase the base of evidence available to develop land use strategies for prescribed burns, wildfire management, and forest harvesting, all of which draw from knowledge of historical fire regimes. For example, evidence for spatial variability in historical fire frequency (Rogeau 2009, 2010a, 2010b) was used by regional fire managers to identify and prioritize locations for prescribed burns (Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development 2012). This applied research has proven exceptionally valuable and could be extended to additional parts of the study area. It is also somewhat time-sensitive because evidence of past fires is being erased by vegetation succession, the mortality and decomposition of fire-scarred trees, and land clearing for forest harvesting and other land uses.

Additional fire history studies are also needed to better understand the frequency and extent of mixed severity fires (low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires) in the Eastern Slopes (Amoroso et al. 2011). This would inform fire management and forest harvest approaches designed to emulate historical fire regimes through prescribed burns, wildfire and forest harvesting (Stockwell et al. 2016). For example, because the historical fire regime of the Eastern Slopes was characterized by

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 50 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment a wide range of fire intensity and severity, implementing a range of harvest treatments (selective harvesting, structural retention, clearcutting) would contribute to fire regime emulation (Gustafsson et al. 2012, Huggard et al. 2014).

Additional fire history studies are also needed to better characterize within-fire variability in fire intensity and severity. Previous studies in the Eastern Slopes suggest that the perimeter of a fire and the location of island remnants within a fire are related to variation in topography and vegetation (Andison and McCleary 2014). Additional studies of historical photos and field observations would further inform both prescribed burns and forest harvesting. Finally, planners would also benefit from further studies of repeat oblique photography to characterize vegetation change in montane and subalpine areas, as has been completed elsewhere in the Rocky Mountains (Rhemtulla et al. 2002, Stockdale 2017).

Opportunities to advance the above applied research priorities are available through collaborative initiatives that address similar questions. Two examples of such initiatives are the Healthy Landscapes program (friresearch.ca/program/healthy-landscapes-program) led by fRI Research and Landscapes in Motion (www.landscapesinmotion.ca).

Integrated assessment of environmental drivers affecting hydrological and water quality regimes

Watershed research studies highlighted in this report point to climate, topography, and land cover as key drivers of hydrological regimes in the Eastern Slopes. These studies provide evidence relevant to the development of policies and plans designed to protect sensitive hydrological process from disruption by human activities such as forest harvesting. However, as suggested by a preliminary analysis of streamflow from hydrometric stations in the study area (Fig. 9), annual streamflow is highly variable among watersheds within the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River basins. This environmental variability makes it challenging to assess the potential contribution of land cover change in the region caused by forest harvesting, other anthropogenic disturbances, prescribed burns, and wildfire. Land use planning in the region would likely benefit from additional monitoring at new hydrometric stations that cover the range of environmental (climate, topography, land cover) conditions occurring within the region. In addition to ground-based monitoring, remotely-sensed data and other geospatial datasets are available and can be used to assess the relative influences of variables such as topography, climate, and land cover on streamflow variability among instrumented watersheds in the basin. In this report, trends in streamflow were analysed, while the causes of observed changes were not. Integration of ground- based and remotely-sensed data is needed to evaluate the relative influence of climate change and land cover change (e.g., Wei and Zhang 2010, Eum et al. 2016, 2017) on streamflow along the Eastern Slopes.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 51 Compared to streamflow, water quality is monitored at relatively few stations in the basin, and a comprehensive understanding of input, transport, and fate of constituents such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment, is lacking. As noted previously in this report, water quality may be altered by forest harvesting, prescribed burns, wildfire, and post-fire harvest and silvicultural treatments. Published hydrological studies from Lost Creek in southwestern Alberta point to significant effects of wildfire and salvage logging on water quality, while publications from Marmot Creek suggest relatively rapid hydrological recovery after forest harvesting (Rothwell et al. 2016). However, as with streamflow, increased understanding of the role of topography, land cover, and climate would support planners and managers in minimizing the potential impacts of land use on water quality.

Opportunities to advance the above applied research priorities are available through collaborative initiatives that address similar questions. One example of such an initiative is the Changing Cold Regions Network (ccrnetwork.ca).

Systematic reviews of ecological response to land use

Because this report is intended to support regional land use planning that addresses multiple land use and climate change impacts on a range of ecological responses, a comprehensive, systematic review and synthesis of applicable literature (e.g., Smith et al. 2015, Jackson et al. 2016) was beyond its scope. However, a systematic map was completed (Appendix B), which is an important early stage in the systematic review process (James et al. 2016). Systematic mapping is a scientific method for summarizing the state of literature and permitting collection of relevant information on broad and open-ended research questions (Centre for Environmental Evidence 2013, James et al. 2016). Mapping protocols with clearly defined search, screening, extraction, and reporting strategies, impart critical transparency and repeatability to the process of assembling scientific literature. An important caveat is that the choice of search terms and screening procedures is a qualitative process that may result in systematic maps that do not fully capture all of the potentially relevant information or existing knowledge gaps in the scientific literature.

While systematic mapping does not provide a quantitative synthesis or evaluation of data, it is useful for describing the distribution of available information, including clusters and potential gaps, as well as informing more narrowly defined research questions appropriate for full systematic review (e.g., detailed meta-analysis of specific species-stressor relationships). For example, the systematic map presented in Appendix B pointed to a disproportionately high number of studies of grizzly bear responses to linear disturbances and other stressors (Fig. 12), which is unsurprising given their conservation designation (threatened in Alberta) and their iconic status as a symbol of wilderness. There is ample evidence suggesting that grizzly bears respond negatively to human activity along linear disturbances, with some understanding of variability in responses among demographic groups. Both the direct (reduced survival) and indirect (displacement and modified

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 52 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment behaviour) impacts of human activity on linear disturbances on grizzly bears have been well documented. Given this relatively large amount of evidence, there may be opportunities for formal syntheses to reveal specific factors contributing to the observed heterogeneities in grizzly bear response to various human activities. For instance, it may be feasible to calculate standardized effect sizes from individual studies and evaluate them to detect generalities using meta-analytic models (Collaboration for Environmental Evidence 2013).

Building on the systematic map completed in this report (Appendix B) multiple fully systematic reviews of ecological responses to land use could be completed using guidelines provided by the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence (2013). These guidelines include seven steps:

1. Question setting: outlines evidence needs and helps define the scope. 2. Protocol: outlines the steps that will be taken (typically peer-reviewed). 3. Searching: repeatable search strategy tailored to the question and likely evidence sources is employed to conduct a systematic search. 4. Article screening: articles identified during the systematic search are screened based on a priori inclusion criteria. 5. Critical appraisal and data extraction: screened studies are assessed for design, reporting standards, potential for bias and the validity of their study question. Where appropriate, data are extracted. 6. Data synthesis: extracted data are synthesized to form a summary of evidence available to answer the systematic reviews overarching question. Syntheses can take narrative, quantitative, and/or qualitative forms. 7. Reporting and review: high reporting standards and peer review ensure transparency and repeatability.

Monitoring the effectiveness of land use plans

Numerous policies, regulations and plans are in place to achieve desired environmental outcomes in the Upper North Saskatchewan River Basin. These include the Eastern Slopes Policy (Government of Alberta 1984), Subregional Integrated Resource Plans, the Public Lands Administration Regulation, Forest Management Plans, Recovery Plans for species at risk, and Wildlife Management Plans. The North Saskatchewan Regional Plan would potentially replace some elements of these policies and plans, to reflect increased pressures from ecological drivers such as climate change and anthropogenic factors such as increasing demand for recreation opportunities (Government of Alberta 2014).

While land use plans often articulate desired environmental outcomes, a shortage of resources for monitoring makes it difficult to evaluate whether the management actions implemented within a plan are effective. This is a chronic problem in jurisdictions around the world (Lindenmayer and

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 53 Likens 2009), requiring deliberate efforts to address. Effectiveness monitoring is the use of scientific methods to address specific questions about the effectiveness of land use policies, plans, and management actions to mitigate or enhance environmental outcomes. The purpose of this section is to identify questions relevant to the effectiveness of land use regulations and management approaches in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River basins and suggest how they could be addressed.

Prescribed burns

Prescribed burns in the National Parks and on Provincial lands are used to restore elements of the historical fire regime and manage fire-related risks to communities and ecosystems (Banff National Park 2010, Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development 2012). Monitoring responses of wildlife, streams, and other ecosystem properties to alternative fire prescriptions (location, season, weather, control measures) would support post-fire evaluations of success and guide the development of improved prescriptions for use in the future (e.g., Sachro et al. 2005). Because prescribed burns are planned events, it is possible to obtain baseline ecological measurements before and after the event within treatment and control areas. Prescribed burns are therefore an opportunity to implement a Before-After-Control-Impact sampling design (Underwood 1994, Bêche et al. 2005).

Forest harvesting

Forest management plans in this region and elsewhere in Alberta are intended to support multiple outcomes beyond wood production, including watershed protection, wildfire risk mitigation, and wildlife habitat (Alberta Sustainable Resource Development 2006). In the Foothills Natural Region, forest harvesting has replaced wildfire as the dominant forest stand-replacing disturbance over the past several decades (Fig. 3). Forest harvest treatments that emulate at least some elements of the historical fire regime are likely to benefit species and ecosystem attributes that may be adapted to that regime (Stockdale et al. 2016). The response of wildlife to various harvest treatments have been evaluated elsewhere in Alberta (e.g., Pengelly and Cartar 2010, Kishchuk et al. 2014). Because environmental drivers such as topography and climate that influence ecological responses vary among locations, some findings cannot be reliably extrapolated. Therefore, additional studies in the Eastern Slopes would help forest managers understand variability in responses among alternative forest harvest treatments such as clearcutting, selective harvest, and patch retention. As variations in climatic and topographic drivers make it difficult to estimate the contribution of forest harvesting to stream flow and water quality, additional monitoring of hydrological response would enable scientists and managers to evaluate the extent to which findings in southwestern Alberta (Pomeroy et al. 2012, Rothwell et al. 2016, Silins et al. 2016) are applicable elsewhere the Eastern

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 54 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment Slopes. Because forest harvesting treatments can be controlled and replicated, it is possible to implement experimental designs that enable reliable inference.

Post-fire harvest and silvicultural treatments

Because wildfires have been relatively rare in the Eastern Slopes during the past several decades, there have been few opportunities to study ecological responses to the region’s dominant disturbance regime. Future wildfires can be viewed as opportunities to evaluate the response of wildlife and other ecosystem attributes to post-fire harvest treatments implemented to salvage merchantable wood fibre, and post-fire silvicultural treatments intended to re-establish trees for future harvest. Watershed studies have shown that salvage logging following the Lost Creek Fire caused increased concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment compared to watersheds in which timber was not salvaged (Silins et al. 2009, 2014). However, the magnitude and duration of this impact likely varies considerably with topography, ground and surface water dynamics, soil, and vegetation. By varying the timing, method, and proportion of available wood recovered during post-fire harvest treatments, site preparation, and other silvicultural treatments, and monitoring ecological responses to such treatments, managers would be able to better evaluate key environmental outcomes of alternative treatments.

Linear disturbance regulation

Concerns over the negative environmental impacts of recreational use of trails and other linear disturbances elsewhere in the Eastern Slopes have led to the implementation of plans intended specifically to manage linear footprints and recreational use (Alberta Environment and Parks 2017b, 2018c). If similar plans were developed and implemented in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River basins, they could be accompanied by a monitoring plan to assess their effectiveness. New regulations that alter the frequency, timing, and type of human activity on trails could be an excellent opportunity to evaluate the ecological response of wildlife, stream water quality, and other ecosystem properties. Monitoring of human use and ecological responses would be especially useful if it began before regulatory treatments were implemented, thereby allowing before-and-after comparisons in treatment and control areas. Suitable monitoring designs are required in which both human use (Beeco et al. 2014, Olson et al. 2017) and ecological response are monitored over appropriate spatial extents and durations. Off-highway vehicle use has been monitored on selected trails in the Upper North Saskatchewan River basin using magnetic field and infrared counters (Alberta Environment and Parks 2018f, Nichols and Wilson 2012), providing an excellent foundation for expanded monitoring. Additional approaches for monitoring human use in remote areas include the use of global positioning systems and smart phones, including those for which locations are uploaded to social media applications such as Strava (Hallo et al. 2012, Korpilo et al. 2017, Meijles et al. 2014, D’Antonio et al. 2010). Also available for remote-area monitoring

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 55 are new wildlife monitoring technologies such as remote cameras (Steenweg et al. 2017), acoustic recording units (Shonfield and Bayne 2017), and non-invasive sampling of genetic material (Flasko et al. 2017) and hormone concentrations (Bourbonnais et al. 2014) from hair and scat.

While numerous previous studies have demonstrated negative ecological responses to roads (Forman and Alexander 1998, Daigle 2010), most linear disturbances in the Eastern Slopes are trails rather than roads. Roads and trails differ in their physical attributes and, more importantly, the frequency, type, and timing of human activity. Studies of ecological response to roads may not be directly applicable to landscapes where trails, rather than roads, are the dominant linear disturbance, and where motorized vehicles travel on roads and some (unknown) proportion of trails. New plans to manage recreational use of trails in the Eastern Slopes would benefit from targeted monitoring to evaluate their effectiveness. Key ecological response variables include wildlife behavior and populations, and parameters characterizing the input, transport, and fate of sediments in streams crossed by (or adjacent to) linear disturbances.

Conservation areas

The effectiveness of conservation areas for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem integrity has been studied extensively at regional and national scales (Leverington et al. 2010). However, conservation areas are not a significant part of the environmental management regime in Alberta’s Foothills Natural Region. Less than 2% of this Natural Region is designated as parks or protected areas, compared to 60% of the Rocky Mountain Natural Region and 15% of the provincial land base (Alberta Environment and Parks 2018e). Target 1 of the Canadian Biodiversity 2020 Targets and Aichi Target 11 under the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity stipulates a target of ensuring at least 17% in terrestrial protected area networks by 2020 (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010). Because forest companies and other industrial operators in the Foothills Natural Region are important drivers of regional and provincial economic development, the expansion of parks and protected areas in this natural region (e.g., to address shortfalls in ecological representation) would likely have negative economic impacts.

Given the challenges of establishing new parks and protected areas in the Foothills Natural Region, environmental management approaches in the multi-use landscape (outside protected areas) are needed to support the achievement of desired outcomes for wildlife populations, water quality and quantity, and other parameters. Effectiveness monitoring is needed to assess the effectiveness of management approaches intended to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem integrity outside of protected areas, compared to management approaches within protected areas. Because opportunities to monitor in protected areas are constrained due their limited aerial extent, it may be necessary to consider protected area surrogates (areas in a multi-use landscape with limited industrial activity in which ecosystem composition, structure and function are expected to be similar to protected areas). For example, several of the 96 watersheds in the Foothills Natural Region

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 56 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment portion of the study area contain high levels of interior habitat (Fig. 8). These watersheds could be considered for inclusion as protected area surrogates in monitoring studies designed to assess the effectiveness of land use regimes outside protected areas for achieving desired environmental outcomes. If additional protected areas are established in the study area or elsewhere in the Eastern Slopes, there may also be opportunities for effectiveness monitoring in one or more treatment and control areas, with the treatment being a change in land use designation (e.g., from Public Land Use Zone to protected area).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 57 Literature cited

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Appendix A. Data sources and analyses Wildfire

Historical wildfire occurrence records (1961-2016) were obtained from Alberta Agriculture and Forestry’s Historical wildfire database (http://wildfire.alberta.ca/resources/historical-data/historical- wildfire-database.aspx (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017c)). The spatial extent of fires (1931- 2016) were obtained from Alberta Agriculture and Forestry’s Historical wildfire perimeter spatial data (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017d).

Because the classification of human-caused fires in the available record changed during the period from 1961-2016, all human-related ignition causes (Forest Industry, Incendiary, Other Industry, Public Project, Railroad, Recreation, Resident (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017c)) were aggregated into a single category. Fires with ignition causes classified as ‘unknown’ or ‘under- investigation’ were grouped into a single category ‘Unknown’. Changes in fire observation techniques and reporting procedures may have introduced additional uncertainty in the temporal trends of these data (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017c). Specifically, in 1995 the minimum reported fire size increased from 0.1 to 0.01 ha and in 2003 the provincial wildfire reporting procedure was changed to include OTR and XA fires. The latter changed led to a spike in the number of reported wildfires after 2003. Forest harvesting

Forest harvest areas in the study area were calculated using three data sources obtained by Alberta Agriculture and Forestry; the AVI (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017a), the Post Inventory Final Cutblocks layer (Alberta Agriculture and Forestry 2017b) and Regional Forestry Cutblock data (obtained from Andrew Lansink at Alberta Agriculture and Forestry on March 9, 2018). To calculate the total forest harvest areas in the study area since 1961, a compiled Forest Harvest Areas dataset was created. First, the three datasets were clipped to the study area boundary. All cutblock records were extracted from the Extended Alberta Vegetation Inventory (AVIE) dataset by selecting any records with a modification code of ‘CC’ for clear cut. Both the Regional Forestry Cutblock dataset and the Post Inventory Final Cutblocks dataset had an attribute field called Harvest Year which represents the date of harvest. For extracted records from the AVIE dataset, the Harvest Year was calculated as the modification year. Where no date was available in the modification year the Harvest Year was calculated as the origin year, where origin year >= 1980. Otherwise the Harvest Year was calculated as the understory origin year.

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For the records where the origin year was <1980 and no understory origin year was recorded, the Harvest year was calculated as the Photography year if the Seral stage was either Regen or Young, else it was calculated as Origin year. A source field was added to each of the three datasets, and calculated as the name of the dataset. The three forest harvest inventories were then merged, keeping only the Source and Harvest Year fields. The final step in creating a compiled Forest Harvest dataset was to remove any records older than 1961, and to dissolve by both Source and Age fields (Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins 2018).

Linear disturbances

The location and type of linear disturbances such as roads and trails in the study area were based primarily on the Alberta Base Features (AB BF) dataset (Alberta Environment and Parks 2018). At the time of writing, this dataset represented the most up-to-date representation of known access features within the province (personal communication: AHFMP technical committee 2017). However, this dataset does not capture all recreational trails or 3D seismic lines, nor does it include pipelines. As such, the true linear disturbance density likely exceeds that reported in this assessment. The AB BF data were supplemented with four additional datasets: 2017 Red Deer - North Saskatchewan Trail data (courtesy of Ryan Jillard, RDNS RIU, Alberta Environment and Parks; obtained 23 November 2017), 2017 Pipelines data (courtesy of Don Page, Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Science Section, Alberta Environment and Parks; obtained 16 March 2018), Jasper National Park Official Trials, and Banff National Park Official Trials. Trail data for the National Parks were obtained from the geomatics coordinators for each both Banff and Jasper National Park (July 2018) and are available through the Government of Canada Open data license agreement.

Four datasets from the Alberta Base Features were used to calculate linear disturbance density: Roads, Railway, Powerline, and Cutline trails. Using the Roads dataset, three linear disturbance categories were derived by splitting roads into three category types: Paved, Gravel and Unimproved/Unclassified/Truck trails. The paved roads class includes the subcategories: divided paved roads, 1, 2, and 4-lane undivided paved roads, and interchange ramps. The gravel roads class includes the subcategories 1 and 2 lane gravel roads. The unimproved/unclassified/truck trails category includes the subcategories: unimproved roads, truck/trails, winter roads and ford/winter crossings, and driveways. Power lines were merged into a single feature class with the 2017 pipelines dataset and dissolved to remove duplicate features. A new cutline/trails class was created by consolidating the Cutline/Trails category from the AB BF data with the 2017 recreational trails data obtained for the Red Deer - North Saskatchewan region as well as the Banff and Jasper National Parks Official Trails. To ensure no duplicate lines were retained, the recreational trails layer was first erased by the cutline trails layer and then again by the roads layer using a 30 m

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cluster tolerance. The twice-erased recreational trails layer was then merged with the original AB BF cutline/trails layer and dissolved to remove any remaining duplicate features to create the final ‘cutline/trails’ layer. The inclusion of the 2017 Recreational Trails dataset, following the removal of duplicate features, resulted in an additional 2072.31 kilometers of linear disturbance in the study area.

Interior habitat

The area of interior habitat was calculated by buffering all linear disturbances, forest harvest areas, and other human footprints in the study area, following the approach described by Huggard and Kremsater (2015). Three datasets were used to create the buffers:

 Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018)  Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018)  2016 Alberta Human Footprint Inventory (Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute 2018)

The three datasets were combined by removing features from the 2016 Human Footprint Inventory that were represented in either the Linear Disturbance or Forest Harvest datasets. Linear disturbances were buffered by a feature width (Table A1) to convert from polyline to polygon data.

Buffer areas were delineated separately for Forested (Alberta Green Area and National Parks) and Non-Forested (Alberta White Area) areas. Buffers within the Forested area were delineated using two sets of buffer widths (narrow and wide), while buffers within the Non-Forested area were delineated using a single set of buffer widths (Tables A1, A2, A3). The use of two buffer widths in the Forested area was based on the range of reported edge effects (Huggard and Kremsater 2015). Buffers delineated adjacent to forest harvest areas were proportional to the number of years since harvesting (Table A2). Buffers on older harvest areas were narrower than younger harvest areas to account for decreasing edge contrast as tree height increases. Two buffer layers (narrow and wide) were then created for the study area by merging the Non-Forested area buffer layer with each of the two Forested area buffer layers. Finally, two interior habitat layers were created from the inverse of the buffers. Each interior habitat layer was mapped for display purposes (Fig. A1).

Each of the two interior habitat layers (narrow and wide) was intersected with the watershed boundaries (Hydrologic Unit Code Watersheds 2017a, Fig. A2) to calculate the area of interior habitat (narrow and wide) in each watershed. The area of interior habitat calculated from narrow and wide buffers was averaged to give a single value for each watershed, which is reported in Fig. 8.

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Table A1. Buffer distances assigned to linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins for the calculation of interior habitat. See text for details.

Linear Disturbance Type Forested Area Forested Area Non-forested Feature Width Narrow buffers Wide buffers Area buffers (m) (m) (m) (m)

Paved road 20 50 200 150

Gravel Road 15 50 200 50

Unimproved/ Unclassified/ Truck 10 40 175 60 trails

Railway 10 50 200 150

Powerlines/Pipelines 10 50 200 110

Cutlines/Trails 3 20 80 25

Table A2. Buffer distances assigned to forest harvest areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins for the calculation of interior habitat. See text for details.

Forested Area Narrow Forested Area Wide Non-forested Area Feature Type buffer (m) buffer (m) buffer (m)

Harvest Area 50 x (1- age/60) 200 x (1- age/60) 150 x (1- age/60)

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 84 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

Table A3. Buffer distances assigned to features in the 2016 Human Footprint Inventory (Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute 2018) for the calculation of interior habitat.

Forested Area Forested Area Non-forested Forested Area Forested Area Non-forested Feature Type Feature Type Narrow buffer (m) Wide buffer (m) Area buffers (m) Narrow buffer (m) Wide buffer (m) Area buffers (m) Airp-runway 50 200 200 Oil-gas-plant 50 200 200 Borrowpit-dry 50 200 50 Open-pit-mine 50 200 200 Borrowpits 50 200 50 Peat 50 200 200 Borrowpit-wet 50 200 50 Recreation 50 200 100 Campground 50 200 200 Reservoir 50 200 100 Camp-industrial 50 200 200 Residence_clearing 50 200 200 Canal 50 200 100 Ris-airp-runway 50 200 200 CFO 50 200 200 Ris-borrowpits 50 200 200 Clearing-unknown 50 200 50 Ris-camp-industrial 50 200 200 Clearing-wellpad-unconfirmed 50 200 50 Ris-clearing-unknown 50 200 200 Country-residence 50 200 200 Ris-drainage 50 200 200 Crop 50 200 200 Ris-facility-operations 50 200 200 Cultivation_abandoned 50 200 200 Ris-facility-unknown 50 200 200 Dugout 50 200 100 Ris-mines-oilsands 50 200 200 Facility-other 50 200 50 Ris-oilsands-rms 50 200 200 Facility-unknown 50 200 50 Ris-overburden-dump 50 200 200 Fruit-vegetables 50 200 200 Ris-plant 50 200 200 Golfcourse 50 200 200 Ris-reclaimed-certified 50 200 200 Greenspace 50 200 50 Ris-reclaimed-permanent 50 200 200 Grvl-sand-pit 50 200 100 Ris-reclaimed-temp 50 200 200 Lagoon 50 200 100 Ris-reclaim-ready 50 200 200 Landfill 50 200 200 Ris-soil-replaced 50 200 200 Mill 50 200 200 Ris-soil-salvaged 50 200 200 Mines-coal 50 200 200 Ris-tailing-pond 50 200 200 Mines-oilsands 50 200 200 Ris-tank-farm 50 200 200 Mines-pitlake 50 200 200 Ris-utilities 50 200 200 Misc-oil-gas-facility 50 200 200 Ris-waste 50 200 200 Rural-residence 50 200 200 Well-abandoned 50 200 50 Sump 50 200 100 Well-bit 50 200 50 Surrounding-veg 50 200 50 Well-cased 50 200 50 Tailing-pile 50 200 200 Well-cleared-drilled 50 200 50 Tailing-pond 50 200 200 Well-cleared-not-confirmed 50 200 50 Transfer_station 50 200 200 Well-gas 50 200 100 Urban-industrial 50 200 200 Well-oil 50 200 100 Urban-residence 50 200 200 Well-other 50 200 100 Vegetated-edge-railways 50 200 0 Windmills 50 200 100 Vegetated-edge-roads 50 200 0 Well-abandoned 50 200 50 Well-drilled-other 50 200 50

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 85

Figure A1. Interior habitat in the study area based on buffers on linear and non-linear disturbances of (a) 50 m and (b) 200 m. Sources: Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018), Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins (2018), 2016 Human Footprint Inventory (Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute 2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 86

Figure A2. Watersheds used as the unit of analysis for spatial summaries. Data source: Alberta Environment and Parks (2017a).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 87 Climate change

Gridded climate data were generated using the freely available ClimateNA software package (http://www.climatewna.com) which provides locally-downscaled historical and future monthly and annual climate data (Wang et al. 2012, 2016). The model uses an ‘anomaly approach’, where historical and future climate surfaces are estimated relative to the 1961-90 baseline period to obtain a suite of directly calculated and derived climate variables (Mitchell and Jones 2005, Wang et al. 2006, Mbogga et al. 2009). Wang et al. (2006) outlines the precise equations used to compute each climate variable.

Comparison of model output with weather station data found the climate model was able to represent temperature variables with a high level of accuracy (R2 > 0.95 for mean annual temperature). Model accuracy is lower for monthly and seasonal variables as compared to annual variables and for shorter time periods (e.g. years or decades versus climate normal periods) (Mbogga et al. 2009). In addition, the accuracy of precipitation variables is lower compared to temperature (R2 between ~0.82 and 0.97 during the period considered in this analysis). This is not surprising, given the highly stochastic nature of precipitation (Bonsal et al. 2003). Because of the use of monthly data as input to the model there is additional uncertainty for climate variables which are typically calculated from daily data (e.g. degree-days, extreme minimum temperature, frost-free period and associated dates, precipitation as snow; see Table 1 in Wang et al. 2006). Important limitations of this gridded climate dataset include the inability of the model to capture temperature inversions and other microclimatic variability that is common in mountain environments.

Temperature and precipitation were computed for the 1951-1980 (Table A4) and 1981-2010 (Table A5) climate normal periods. The 1981-2010 period was used to describe the current climate in the study area. Comparisons between the 1981-2010 period and the previous 30 year period were used to provide an indication of recent changes in climate. Future conditions were simulated for the 2071-2100 period from an ensemble of 15 GCMs for two greenhouse gas ‘Representative Concentration Pathways’ (RCPs) - RCP 4.5 (Table A6) and RCP 8.5 (Table A7). RCP 4.5 is a midrange mitigation emissions scenario where emissions peak in 2040 and decline thereafter while RCP 8.5 is a high emissions scenario where emissions continue to increase throughout the 21st century (Taylor et al. 2012).

In addition to differing accuracies in observed and derived climate variables generated by the ClimateNA software for both historical and future conditions (Mbogga et al. 2009), there is additional uncertainty surrounding future climate projections. Uncertainties in future projections arise from, but are not limited to, uncertainty surrounding global emissions scenarios, an incomplete understanding of the complex processes and feedbacks in the climate system and how these are

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 88 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

represented in the models and that arising from internal climate variability (van Vuuren et al. 2011, IPCC 2013 Chapter 12, Knutti and Sedláček 2013). As knowledge of the climate system has improved, so too has our ability to develop computer models of the climate system and current climate models are fairly robust (Knutti and Sedláček 2013). The larger uncertainty in predictions of future climate lies in our depiction of future atmospheric carbon concentrations, modeled as RCPs (IPCC 2013 Chapter 12, Knutti and Sedláček 2013). RCPs describe likely atmospheric carbon concentrations arising from different combinations of socioeconomic, technological and institutional outcomes (van Vuuren et al. 2011), conditions which are difficult to predict with a high degree of certainty.

Finally, elevation data for the study area, required to run the model, were obtained from the Canadian Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 1:25K (Natural Resources Canada 2017), resampled to a 500 m spatial resolution. The centroid of each (500 m2) pixel was extracted from the DEM and used as input to the ClimateNA model. Output points were then converted to raster data.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 89

Table A4. Annual climate variables for the period 1951-1980 for the study area. Source: ClimateNA (Wang et al. 2016)

Study Upper Lower Cent. Dry Alpine Subalpine Montane area Foothills Foothills Mixwd. Mixed

Mean annual temperature (°C) -0.1 -3.0 -1.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.2

Mean January temperature (°C) -14.1 -15.3 -14.4 -13.7 -13.6 -13.5 -14.2 -13.2

Mean July temperature (°C) 12.0 8.8 10.9 12.2 13.1 14.6 15.5 14.8

Extreme minimum temperature over 30 -43.8 -45.2 -44.4 -43.6 -43.3 -42.8 -42.9 -43.0 yrs

Extreme maximum temperature over 30 29.7 26.5 28.4 30.4 30.8 32.3 32.2 32.7 yrs

Temperature difference (°C) between 26.2 24.1 25.3 25.9 26.7 28.1 29.7 28.0 MWMT and MCMT, or continentality.

Degree-days below 0°C, chilling degree 1614.2 2049.1 1737.8 1512.6 1434.7 1330.9 1392.8 1294.9 days

Degree-days above 5°C, growing 749.4 346.4 566.6 739.2 866.3 1109.5 1244.9 1152.8 degree-days

Degree-days below 18°C 6601.7 7626.4 6968.0 6488.7 6233.1 5825.8 5741.3 5735.9

Degree-days above 18°C 10.1 1.6 4.2 7.4 10.5 21.1 30.3 23.4

Number of frost-free days (No. days) 76.2 90.8 110.8 118.1 128.9 143.1 153.5 144.0

Frost-free period (No. days) 102.1 55.3 68.2 68.3 81.9 94.8 108.0 94.8

Day of year on which frost free period 165.8 176 171 171 164 155 146 155 begins

Day of year on which frost free period 242.1 232 239 239 246 250 254 250 ends

Mean annual precipitation (mm) 855.7 1391.5 898.9 620.6 642.2 592.3 571.2 544.3

May-September precipitation (mm) 445.5 554.2 432.7 312.7 408.2 410.7 403.3 383.5

Precipitation as snow (mm) 424.3 952.0 488.3 294.1 210.3 142.5 127.7 118.8

Mean annual relative humidity (%) 58.1 63.5 60.2 56.0 55.4 54.7 56.9 53.8

Hargreaves reference evaporation 443.3 315.7 383.5 466.0 493.4 546.7 549.2 562.8 (mm)

Hargreaves climate moisture deficit 40.8 1.3 14.4 115.7 42.5 82.1 95.0 122.4 (mm)

Annual heat-moisture index 13.8 5.3 10.3 17.0 17.1 20.3 21.4 22.6 (MAT+10)/(MAP/1000)

Summer heat-moisture index 28.4 16.6 25.7 39.3 32.2 35.6 38.4 38.7 (MWMT/(MSP/1000)

Mean annual solar radiation (MJ m-2 d-1) 10.9 13.5 7.2 -32.7 12.9 12.6 12.3 12.9

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 90 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

Table A5. Annual climate variables for the period 1981-2010 for the study area. Source: ClimateNA (Wang et al. 2016)

Study Upper Lower Cent. Dry area Alpine Subalpine Montane Foothills Foothills Mixwd. Mixed

Mean annual temperature (°C) 0.6 -2.3 -0.5 0.8 1.6 2.8 3.0 3.0

Mean January temperature (°C) -10.7 -12.6 -11.4 -10.2 -9.9 -9.5 -9.9 -9.2

Mean July temperature (°C) 12.1 8.9 10.9 12.3 13.1 14.6 15.6 14.8

Extreme minimum temperature over 30 -44.7 -46.4 -45.3 -44.4 -44.1 -43.3 -43.3 -43.5 yrs

Extreme maximum temperature over 30 30.2 26.8 28.9 30.7 31.4 32.8 33.0 33.4 yrs

Temperature difference (°C) between 22.8 21.5 22.3 22.4 23.0 24.1 25.5 24.0 MWMT and MCMT, or continentality.

Degree-days below 0°C, chilling degree 1392.5 1836.1 1522.4 1305.6 1209.3 1103.0 1150.8 1066.4 days

Degree-days above 5°C, growing 773.1 361.0 587.1 762.5 891.5 1139.4 1281.6 1179.3 degree-days

Degree-days below 18°C 6339.9 7382.5 6718.2 6242.4 5969.2 5548.4 5451.9 5459.9

Degree-days above 18°C 10.9 1.7 4.5 7.9 11.3 22.8 33.4 24.9

Number of frost-free days (No. days) 121.8 93.9 112.8 120.8 130.0 143.9 154.2 144.4

Frost-free period (No. days) 74.7 54.2 67.0 68.5 79.9 92.8 106.0 92.2

Day of year on which frost free period 167.4 178 172 171 166 157 148 157 begins

Day of year on which frost free period 242.1 232 239 239 245 250 254 249 ends

Mean annual precipitation (mm) 830.9 1314.8 868.7 602.7 641.4 596.3 576.0 543.8

May-September precipitation (mm) 480.8 603.9 470.0 341.0 439.6 438.1 425.6 406.8

Precipitation as snow (mm) 362.7 830.6 421.5 245.9 174.1 113.7 103.5 92.2

Mean annual relative humidity (%) 58.7 64.6 61.1 57.2 55.8 54.8 56.6 53.8

Hargreaves reference evaporation 449.7 313.6 388.9 475.0 508.2 552.3 556.3 570.3 (mm)

Hargreaves climate moisture deficit 31.8 0.4 7.0 93.8 30.1 68.6 78.2 112.0 (mm)

Annual heat-moisture index 14.9 6.1 11.4 18.5 18.2 21.4 22.7 24.0 (MAT+10)/(MAP/1000)

Summer heat-moisture index 26.5 15.4 23.8 36.1 30.0 33.5 36.7 36.5 (MWMT/(MSP/1000)

Mean annual solar radiation (MJ m-2 d-1) 11.1 13.6 8.2 -32.7 12.9 12.6 12.3 12.9

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 91

Table A6. Annual climate variables for the period 2081-2100 for the study area, RCP4.5 ClimateNA (Wang et al. 2016)

Study Upper Lower Cent. Dry area Alpine Subalpine Montane Foothills Foothills Mixwd. Mixed

Mean annual temperature (°C) 3.5 0.6 2.4 3.7 4.5 5.7 6.0 6.0

Mean January temperature (°C) -9.0 -10.5 -9.5 -8.8 -8.4 -8.0 -8.4 -7.7

Mean July temperature (°C) 15.7 12.6 14.5 15.9 16.7 18.2 19.0 18.5

Extreme minimum temperature over 30 yrs -40.6 -42.3 -41.3 -40.4 -40.0 -39.2 -39.0 -39.1

Extreme maximum temperature over 30 yrs 33.8 30.6 32.4 34.3 34.9 36.5 36.5 37.2

Temperature difference (°C) between MWMT and MCMT, or continentality. 24.7 23.1 24.0 24.6 25.2 26.2 27.5 26.1

Degree-days below 0°C, chilling degree days 1018.2 1359.9 1124.2 957.5 875.9 791.0 832.9 756.3

Degree-days above 5°C, growing degree-days 1300.4 762.6 1077.8 1309.2 1464.5 1753.8 1899.2 1815.4

Degree-days below 18°C 5319.0 6321.5 5669.3 5212.7 4951.1 4577.4 4511.2 4479.0

Degree-days above 18°C 52.9 8.7 23.2 40.8 56.7 106.6 145.0 120.1

Number of frost-free days (No. days) 160.5 135.1 151.7 161.0 168.0 180.9 188.5 182.6

Frost-free period (No. days) 116.4 91.2 108.3 113.2 124.0 136.2 146.5 136.7

Day of year on which frost free period begins 143.1 158.8 148.4 144.3 138.7 130.2 123.3 129.4

Day of year on which frost free period ends 259.4 250.0 256.7 257.5 262.8 266.4 270.0 266.0

Mean annual precipitation (mm) 903.7 1467.7 950.4 653.3 679.7 628.4 611.6 571.8

May-September precipitation (mm) 465.6 579.7 453.2 327.2 427.0 428.8 421.9 397.5

Precipitation as snow (mm) 346.9 830.7 395.5 229.3 146.9 101.5 102.1 81.0

Mean annual relative humidity (%) 61.0 66.6 63.2 59.2 58.2 57.4 59.0 56.4

Hargreaves reference evaporation (mm) 544.7 406.9 494.5 564.6 587.4 653.9 653.2 675.0

Hargreaves climate moisture deficit (mm) 71.8 5.7 35.5 167.2 82.9 131.0 146.7 189.0

Annual heat-moisture index (MAT+10)/(MAP/1000) 17.7 7.6 13.6 21.7 21.5 25.0 26.1 28.1

Summer heat-moisture index (MWMT/(MSP/1000) 35.2 22.7 32.8 48.9 39.3 42.4 45.1 46.5

Mean annual solar radiation (MJ m-2 d-1) 11.1 13.5 8.6 -38.1 12.9 12.6 12.3 12.9

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 92 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

Table A7. Annual climate variables for the period 2081-2100 for the study area, RCP8.5 ClimateNA (Wang et al. 2016)

Study Upper Lower Cent. Dry area Alpine Subalpine Montane Foothills Foothills Mixwd. Mixed

Mean annual temperature (°C) 5.7 2.8 4.7 6.0 7.9 6.7 8.2 8.2

Mean January temperature (°C) -6.9 -8.4 -7.4 -6.7 -5.9 -6.3 -6.3 -5.5

Mean July temperature (°C) 18.5 15.5 17.4 18.7 21.0 19.5 21.9 21.3

Extreme minimum temperature over 30 -36.9 -38.7 -37.6 -36.7 -35.3 -36.4 -35.0 -35.2 yrs

Extreme maximum temperature over 30 37.0 33.9 35.6 37.4 39.5 38.0 39.5 40.3 yrs

Temperature difference (°C) between 25.5 23.9 24.8 25.4 26.9 25.8 28.1 26.9 MWMT and MCMT, or continentality.

Degree-days below 0°C, chilling degree 754.8 1041.9 845.4 699.7 563.8 634.2 601.0 535.0 days

Degree-days above 5°C, growing 1741.9 1138.1 1499.5 1760.2 2242.9 1927.8 2391.7 2316.7 degree-days

Degree-days below 18°C 4609.0 5531.9 4918.6 4496.7 3938.3 4269.1 3892.2 3845.9

Degree-days above 18°C 148.2 31.9 79.4 130.7 271.7 171.7 333.3 297.4

Number of frost-free days (No. days) 184.9 160.3 176.3 186.7 204.5 192.4 210.1 206.3

Frost-free period (No. days) 141.7 118.5 134.5 140.4 159.4 148.9 167.2 160.3

Day of year on which frost free period 130.7 145.3 135.3 130.5 119.1 126.5 113.6 118.3 begins

Day of year on which frost free period 272.3 263.8 269.7 270.9 278.5 275.4 281.0 278.6 ends

Mean annual precipitation (mm) 926.5 1518.9 978.3 669.6 634.8 690.8 616.3 577.3

May-September precipitation (mm) 455.9 568.3 444.7 320.3 418.9 417.8 411.2 387.9

Precipitation as snow (mm) 297.3 740.0 335.9 189.0 77.7 113.4 81.7 61.6

Mean annual relative humidity (%) 62.9 68.5 65.0 61.1 59.3 60.1 61.0 58.2

Hargreaves reference evaporation 609.8 473.5 551.6 633.0 715.5 661.9 711.8 739.7 (mm)

Hargreaves climate moisture deficit 109.6 19.3 71.2 217.6 179.9 130.7 196.3 241.0 (mm)

Annual heat-moisture index 20.1 8.8 15.6 24.7 28.2 24.4 29.5 31.7 (MAT+10)/(MAP/1000)

Summer heat-moisture index 42.5 28.4 40.1 58.8 50.2 46.9 53.2 55.0 (MWMT/(MSP/1000)

Mean annual solar radiation (MJ m-2 d-1) 11.0 13.4 8.5 -38.2 12.5 12.8 12.2 12.8

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 93

Streamflow Methods

Trends in river discharge (streamflow) were assed for hydrometric gauging stations within the study area (Fig. A3). Mean daily discharge (m³/s) for each month was obtained from the Government of Canada’s Historical Hydrometric Data (https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/mainmenu/historical_data_inde x_e.html, June 2018). There are twenty gauging stations within the study area of which three have some form of flow regulation and were excluded from subsequent analysis. Nine of the remaining seventeen stations monitor flow year round (continuous monitoring), the other eight stations record discharge only during the open water season, typically 1 March - 31 October (Fig. A3). Most watercourses within the study area are ice- covered during winter. This ice covered season extends well into March, during which month there is limited discharge data. As such, the open water season used for this study is April-October. The direction and magnitude of a trend is highly influenced by the time period of investigation. To ensure consistency across stations a single time period was used in all analyses of river discharge. Specifically, analyses were conducted for the period 1984-2013 because, during this 30-year, period all seventeen stations were actively recording discharge (streamflow) during the open water season.

A statistical trend analysis was conducted to assess whether, and to what degree, there has been a significant change in the daily discharge during each month for the period 1984-2013. Data were prewhitened to remove effects of serial autocorrelation (Yue 2002, Zhang 2000), and a Mann-Kendall (Mann 1945, Kendall 1975) rank trend test was applied to assess the presence of a significant trend. For this analysis, trends at the 90% confidence level were deemed to be significant. The magnitude and direction of trends were determined by the Sen’s slope estimator on the non-prewhitened data (Sen 1968). Analysis was conducted using the ‘Zhang + Yue-Pilon trends’ package (Bronaugh and Werner 2013) in R (R core Team 2013). Trends were computed for months having at least 27 of a possible 30 years of observations which limited the April analysis to only 13 of a possible 17 stations.

Results

Annual hydrographs

The annual hydrographs of the gauged watercourses are characterized by very low monthly flows beginning in late fall and extending until April (Figs. A4, A5). Daily discharge starts to increase in May and reaches a peak in June and July. Following this peak, total monthly flows decline from August until the low flow period.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 94 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

Figure A3. Hydrometric gauging stations (non-regulated) in the study area. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 95

Figure A4. 1984-2013 average daily discharge (m³/s) for each month during the open water season (April-October). Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 96 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

Figure A5. Annual hydrographs for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) for the period 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 97

Temporal trends: 1984-2013

Analysis of temporal trends in April-October streamflow for the period 1984-2013 (Fig. 9) found statistically significant (p<0.1) increases in June streamflow at thirteen of the seventeen gauging stations; all but one of which was significant at the 95% confidence level. Stations with statistically significant increases in June streamflow are located in the central and eastern portion of the study area. In May, statistically significant increases were observed at two stations in the eastern part of the study area. In contrast, in August statistically significant decreases in discharge were observed at four gauging stations in the central part of the study area. No statistically significant changes were observed in April, July, or October. There is a large amount of variability in the daily discharge from one year to the next (Figs. A6-A12).

Analysis of daily discharge averaged across all months during the open water season (April- October, not shown) identified statistically significant increases in streamflow at two locations (Red Deer River above Panther River and Baptiste River near the mouth). All other stations experienced increases in daily discharge, but these trends were not statistically significant. Comparison of daily discharge during each month and over the full open water season (April-October) suggests the bulk of observed increases in open water season discharge occurred during the early part of the season (May and June).

Future analyses

This analysis has identified spatial and temporal trends in stream flow in the study area. While temporal trends (increases) were observed at five gauging stations in the study area, the causes of these trends were not investigated. It is recommended that future work examining the drivers of the observed increases in stream flow and its influence on downstream systems be conducted. In particular investigating the influence of changes in snow pack, glacier extent, climate and land use on stream hydrographs would allow for the improved management of these streams, and predictions of changing water supply into the future. Additionally, while this report presents a preliminary investigation of the state of water quantity in the study area, the state of water quality was not investigated; this knowledge gap remains and should be addressed in future work. Finally, the influence of changing land use, climate, and water availability on water quality also warrants investigation.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 98 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

Figure A6: April daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 99

Figure A7: May daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 100

Figure A8: June daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 101

Figure A9: July daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 102

Figure A10: August daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 103

Figure A11: September daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 104

Figure A12: October daily discharge (m³/s) for each hydrometric station in the study area (Fig. A3) having data in at least 27 of the 30 years during 1984-2013. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2018).

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 105

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Alberta Environment and Parks. 2018. Access and Facility Roads [Vector digital data]. Alberta Base Features. Government of Alberta: Edmonton, Alberta. Retrieved from: https://geodis cover.alberta.ca/geoportal/catalog/search/resource/details.page?uuid=%7BCE523E2B-A368- 440D-B87C-E662DC8B0AEA%7D (Accessed March 2018). Bonsal, B.P., Prowse, T.D., Pietroniro, A. 2003. An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961-90). Hydrological Processes 17(18):3703- 3716.

Bronaugh, D., Werner, A. 2013. Zhang + Yue trends. R package. Version 0.10-1.

Environment and Climate Change Canada, Government of Canada. 2018. Historical hydrometric data for Alberta. Retrieved from the Environment and Climate Change Canada Historical Hydrometric Data web site: https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/mainmenu/ historical_data_index_ e.html (Accessed March 2018).

Forest Harvest Areas in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins. 2018. [computer file]. Edmonton, AB: Alberta Environment and Parks, Government of Alberta. Available from: https://geodiscover.alberta.ca/geoportal/catalog/search/resource/ details.page?uuid=%7BE08A1962-F11A-4737-99CB-8288119B5CAA%7D Huggard, D., Kremsater, L. 2015. Recommendations for habitat interior and old-forest indicators for the Biodiversity Management Framework. Prepared for the Science

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Technical Committee for the Biodiversity Management Framework. Alberta Environment and Parks, Edmonton. Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank Correlation methods 4th edition. Charles Griffin, London UK, 272pp. Knutti, R., Sedláček, J. 2013. Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change 3(4):369. Linear disturbances in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Upper Red Deer River Basins. 2018. [computer file]. Edmonton, AB: Alberta Environment and Parks, Government of Alberta. Available from: https://geodiscover.alberta.ca/geoportal/catalog/search/resource/ details.page?uuid=%7B81711249-952A-4258-B73A-EA10A3472AD8%7D Mann, H.B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 245-59. Mbogga, M.S., Hamann, A., Wang, T. 2009. Historical and projected climate data for natural resource management in western Canada. Agricultural Forest Meteorology 149(5):881- 890. Mitchell, T.D., Jones, P.D. 2005. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology 25(6):693-712. Natural Resources Canada. 2017. Canadian Digital Elevation Model. [Raster digital data]. Retrieved from: http://ftp.geogratis.gc.ca/pub/nrcan_rncan/elevation/cdem_mnec (Accessed November 2017).

R Core Team. 2013. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. http://www.R-project.org Sen, P.K. 1968. Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63(324):1379-89. Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J., Meehl, G.A. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 9(4):485-98. van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.F., Masui, T. 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climate Change 109(1-2):5. Wang, T., Hamann, A., Splittlehouse, D.L., Aitken, S.N. 2006. Development of scale-free climate data for western Canada for use in resource management. International Journal of Climatology 26(3):383-397. Wang, T., Hamann, A., Spittlehouse, D.L., Murdoch, T.Q. 2012. ClimateWNA - High- resolution spatial climate data for western North America. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51(3):16-29. Wang, T., Hamann, A., Spittlehouse, D., Carroll, C. 2016. Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America. PLoS One 11(6):e0156720. Yue, S., Pilon, P.J., Phinney, B., Cavadia, G. 2002. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological Processes 16(9):1807-1829. Zhang, X., Vincent L.A., Hogg, W.D., Niitsoo, A. 2000. Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmosphere-Ocean 38(3):395-429.

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Appendix B. Systematic mapping of published evidence for land use- species relationships Objective

To summarize the availability of published scientific evidence for relationships between species and land use. Search strategy

A documented and repeatable search strategy was implemented to survey available evidence for ecological impacts of land use on species. For the purposes of this study, relevant land uses included forestry, oil and gas exploration/energy production, wind energy production, hydroelectric energy production/flood protection, nuclear energy production, mineral extraction, recreation/tourism, and wildlife harvesting. Focal species were selected from candidates identified by government biologists and an Indigenous expert familiar with the area. To identify pertinent materials in the primary and secondary (peer-reviewed) literatures, the ISI Web of Knowledge database (https://webofknowledge.com) was searched on March 8, 2018, for articles with topics matching each key land use-species combination (Table B1).

Search string

("industr*" or "forestry" or "oil" or "gas" or "wind power" or "hydropower" or "hydro power" or "hydroelectric*" or "mining" or "mine" or "coal" or "recreation" or "ski*" or "hik*" or "bik*" or "trail" or "OHV" or "touris*" or "harvest*" or "clearing" or "cutting" or "deforestation" or "linear feature" or "seismic" or "transmission" or "turbine" or "culvert" or "bridge" or "watercourse crossing" or "contamina*" or "pollut*" or "construction" or "noise" or "impoundment" or "dam" or "erosion" or "sedimen*" or "soil compaction" or "flow regulation" or "hydrological regulation" or "wildfire" or "forest fire" or "water withdrawal" or "well site" or "wellsite" or "pipeline" or "silverculture" or "clearcut*" or "natural resource management" or "resource extraction" or "forest management" or "hunt*" or "angl*" or "fish*" or "trap*") and ("bull trout" or "Salvelinus confluentus" or "mountain whitefish" or "Prosopium williamsoni" or "grizzly" or "Ursus arctos horribilis" or "bighorn sheep" or "Ovis canadensis" or "wolverine" or "Gulo gulo" or "Gulo luscus" or "moose" or "Alces alces" or "whitebark" or "Pinus albicaulis" or "limber pine" or "Pinus flexilis" or "elk" or "Cervus canadensis" or "hoary bat" or "Lasiurus cinereus" or "silver-haired bat" or "Lasionycteris noctivagans" or "little

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 108 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

brown bat" or "Myotis lucifugus" or "long-eared bat" or "Myotis evotis" or "harlequin duck " or "Histrionicus histrionicus" or "bison" or "bison bison") Article screening

Search results were screened to evaluate their relevance and reject articles not meeting the inclusion criteria. First, to prioritize regional research evidence, articles must have referenced a geographic location within the Rocky Mountain area (i.e. Rockies, Rocky Mountain, Alberta, British Columbia, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, or New Mexico). Second, articles must have provided scientific evidence of a land use impact on one or more selected species. Study topics were assessed using article titles, followed by abstracts where appropriate, and the articles rejected at each stage were recorded.

Data extraction

Research articles meeting the above inclusion criteria were catalogued to obtain meta-data and details of land use impacts. Cataloguing was based on abstract content, rather than full texts, to balance comprehensive coverage with practical constraints. Due to the vast number of articles that met the inclusion criteria, data relating to wildlife harvesting (i.e. hunting, angling, and trapping) were not extracted. Also, while 14 species were included in the search string (above), articles were extracted for only 7 species deemed to be most relevant to land use planning in the region.

Variables catalogued for systematic mapping of screened articles include:

 Authors;  Title;  Journal or publisher;  Year of publication;  Digital object identifier (DOI; if applicable);  Data source (primary or secondary);  Study country and region;  Study design (experimental, observational, theoretical/simulation, or review);  Comparator/reference condition (spatial, temporal, biological, or not applicable);  Stressor (altered disturbance regime - fire, altered disturbance regime - forestry, contaminant release, impoundment/hydrological change, land clearing/habitat loss, linear disturbances, noise/wildlife disturbance, or various);  Associated land use(s), if identified (forestry, oil and gas exploration/energy production, wind energy production, hydroelectric energy production/flood protection, mineral extraction, nuclear energy production, recreation/tourism, multiuse);

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 109

 Focal species (bison [Bison bison], bull trout [Salvelinus confluentus], grizzly bear [Ursus arctos horribilis], bighorn sheep [Ovis canadensis], moose [Alces alces], whitebark pine [Pinus albicaulis], limber pine [Pinus flexilis];  Response metric (survival, growth/size, condition, reproduction, behaviour/distribution, or biomass/abundance); and  Summary of key findings relevant to the (formulated) question above (one-two sentences).

Synthesis

The state of available scientific knowledge (e.g. number of studies on different land uses and species) was described; however, findings reported from individual studies should be interpreted with caution, as critical appraisal or formal synthesis of research evidence was not conducted. Report

Systematic mapping outputs include:  Catalogue of all search results, indicating those articles retained following title and abstract screening are available at environmentalmonitoring.ab.ca;  Catalogue of retained research articles and their extracted data (including categorical variables and key scientific findings) (Table B1);  Text for inclusion in the main report describing the approach used for searching available research evidence, screening articles for inclusion, and extracting applicable data, and the state of available scientific knowledge, including any identified clusters that may provide a basis for more targeted meta-analytic reviews in future assessments.

Results

After screening for geographic relevance to the Rocky Mountains, the systematic map included 36 studies of the relationship between species and altered disturbance regimes, including 10 studies related to wildfire and 26 studies related to forest harvesting (Fig. 12). A total of 49 studies of relationships to linear disturbance were found, most of which (34) studied grizzly bears (Fig. 14). For comparison purposes, studies of the response of focal species to several additional stressors (land clearing/habitat loss, contaminant release, water impoundment/hydrological change, and noise/wildlife disturbance) were also included. A total of 63 studies were found that addressed the relationship of one or more focal species to these additional stressors, of which 34 addressed the response of grizzly bears to these additional stressors. Key findings of extracted articles are summarized in Table B1.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North 110 Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment

Literature cited

James, K.L., Randall, N.P., Haddaway, N.R. 2016. A methodology for systematic mapping in environmental sciences. Environmental Evidence 5(7):1-13.

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Table B1. Key findings of articles retrieved using the systematic mapping protocol. Source documentation available at open.alberta.ca/publications/9781460140697.

Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Sheep increased their home range sizes and use of burned areas, but did not select for fire-treated habitats. Prescribed burns under Altered disturbance regime Bighorn Clapp and WY favourable conditions may induce greater survival, but drought (fire) sheep Beck 2016 conditions limit vegetation response of burns and reduce sheep survival.

Sheep with winter ranges in burned areas ate more forbs than those Altered disturbance regime Bighorn Greene et al. CA in less burned areas. Burned areas may also increase visibility and (fire) sheep 2012 decrease predation risk.

Bull trout site abandonment probability was greater at low elevations Altered disturbance regime Bull trout MT with higher temperatures; however, presence of wildfire was not Eby et al. 2014 (fire) linked to changes in occupancy.

Post-fire declines in bull trout density were less than those for Altered disturbance regime Sestrich et al. Bull trout MT cutthroat trout, and invasion by non-native brook trout was (fire) 2011 negligible.

Altered disturbance regime Grizzly Fire did not impact the denning, range or movements of grizzly post Blanchard and WY (fire) bear fire, but did increase availability of ungulate carcasses. Knight 1990

Altered disturbance regime Grizzly Grizzly bears used recently burned areas, more so than unburned AB Hamer 1999 (fire) bear areas, to dig and obtain Hedysarum roots food sources.

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Limber pine abundance showed little response to local extinction Altered disturbance regime Pine Webster and AB following wildfire, but quickly recovered thereafter due to seed- (fire) (limber) Johnson 2000 dispersing birds.

Post wildfire, Pinus albicaulis establishment was widespread and Altered disturbance regime Pine Campbell and BC was tolerant of other faster growing species during forest recovery, (fire) (whitebark) Antos 2003 suggesting it is a pioneer species in boreal forests.

Clearcutting increased the availability, but not nutrition, of forage for Altered disturbance regime Redburn et al. Bison AB bison. The abundance of forage decreased with time relative to the (forestry) 2008 year of clear cutting.

Elk digestible energy intake rate was double in early seral forest Altered disturbance regime Cook et al. Elk OR; WA stands (e.g. recent forest harvest area) compared to later stage (forestry) 2016 closed-canopy forests.

Simulated timber harvest scenarios indicated that an "even-flow" Altered disturbance regime Visscher and Elk AB cutting regime resulted in favourable elk forage conditions relative to (forestry) Merrill 2009 a "pulsed" regime, where certain cohorts are permitted to age.

Altered disturbance regime Timber harvest did not affect the distribution of elk, rather increased Wisdom et al. Elk OR (forestry) success of hunters. 2004

Land clearance method and history, as well as terrain and Altered disturbance regime Grizzly Nielsen et al. AB landscape metrics were important factors determining grizzly bear (forestry) bear 2004 use of previously clear-cut patches.

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Grizzly bears selected for riparian areas in harvested areas while Altered disturbance regime Grizzly Phoebus et al. AB avoiding them in non-harvested forests during summer, suggesting (forestry) bear 2017 that riparian buffers provide valuable habitats.

Grizzly bear use of avalanche chutes was not strongly affected by Altered disturbance regime Grizzly forested buffer width or area of forest harvesting; however, forest Serrouya et al. BC (forestry) bear harvesting did reduce bear use of the larger and higher quality 2011 chutes.

Moose selected for cutblocks more with increasing elevation, though Altered disturbance regime Anderson et al. Moose BC they still spent most of their time at high elevation in old-growth (forestry) 2018 forest.

Moose were more abundant in late winter in early successional Altered disturbance regime Proulx and Moose BC stands, than mature stands, and therefore likely not impacted by (forestry) Kariz 2005 harvesting of pine beetle-infected mature forests.

Altered disturbance regime Prescribed burning and forest harvest treatments of a forest resulted Bighorn Smith et al. (forestry) & Altered UT in significant increases in sheep use of forest harvest areas and sheep 1999 disturbance regime (fire) burned areas, relative to untreated areas.

Altered disturbance regime Ungulates (including elk and moose) generally avoided post-fire Hebblewhite et (forestry) & Altered Elk; Moose AB logged areas due to greater wolf predation risk. al. 2009 disturbance regime (fire)

Altered disturbance regime Plot herbicide treatment on ungulate forage showed decreases in Strong and (forestry) & Contaminant Elk; Moose AB elk forage but increases in moose summer forage. Gates 2006 release

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

A 25% peak flow increase and a shorter return interval for a Altered disturbance regime particular rain-on-snow event were predicted in a basin with Tonina et al. (forestry) & Impoundment / Bull trout ID extensive timber harvest relative to a minimally disturbed basin. 2008 hydrological change Greater discharge was predicted to increase streambed scour and increase mortality of bull trout embryos by 15%.

Altered disturbance regime The occurrence and abundance of bull trout were negatively Ripley et al. (forestry) & Linear Bull trout AB affected by increasing fine sediments, stream width, road density 2005 disturbances and area deforested.

Altered disturbance regime Elk selected for areas near edge of cover and showed minor road Baasch et al. (forestry) & Linear Elk NE avoidance during spring and fall. 2010 disturbances

Altered disturbance regime Radio collared elk used habitat with greater canopy cover in areas Unsworth et al. (forestry) & Linear Elk ID with roads while older bulls and females used open timber habitats 1998 disturbances in roadless areas.

Modelled movement of bears in response to proposed forest Altered disturbance regime harvesting densities showed only moderate increases in total Grizzly Boone and (forestry) & Linear ID; MT movements, but increased substantially with road access. Total bear Hunter 1996 disturbances disturbance to grizzlies would decline if roads were closed after harvest.

Grizzly bear body condition was greater for individuals using Altered disturbance regime Grizzly regenerating forests (post-harvest) than older forests; however, Boulanger et al. (forestry) & Linear AB bear survival was reduced by road density, which was also associated 2013 disturbances with regenerating forests.

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Altered disturbance regime Grizzly females from a forested plateau that was consistently Grizzly Ciarniello et al. (forestry) & Linear BC harvested chose dens further from roads and in older forest bear 2005 disturbances patches, possibly to avoid disturbance.

Altered disturbance regime Using telemetry, collared bears lived at lower densities in areas with Grizzly Ciarniello et al. (forestry) & Linear BC recent harvesting compared to bears in undisturbed mountain bear 2007 disturbances areas.

Altered disturbance regime Female body condition was greater in area with extensive forestry; Grizzly Ciarniello et al. (forestry) & Linear BC however, subadult survival was lower owing to human caused bear 2009 disturbances mortality.

Projected grizzly bear habitat quality and mortality over 100 years Altered disturbance regime Grizzly indicated that habitat quality and carrying capacities gains from Nielsen et al. (forestry) & Linear AB bear natural disturbance-based forestry practices would be completely 2008 disturbances offset by associated human-caused morality.

Step selection was greater near roads, but step length increased Altered disturbance regime near roads with greater traffic (indicating faster movement). Step Grizzly Roever et al. (forestry) & Linear AB selection for roads was consistent, but selection for intermediate bear 2010 disturbances age forest stands was greater during night and dawn while older forests were selected during the day.

Altered disturbance regime Grizzly Wielgus and (forestry) & Linear BC Tracked bears selected against forests with open roads present. bear Vernier 2003 disturbances

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Moose kill sites were farther from patches than telemetry locations Altered disturbance regime and road density was negatively associated with kill sites. However, Kunkel and (forestry) & Linear Moose BC forest harvest activities did not apparently affect the vulnerability of Pletscher 2000 disturbances moose to wolf kills.

Occurrence of bull trout was negatively associated with percent Altered disturbance regime industrial disturbance, while mountain whitefish were associated (forestry), Land clearing / with percent industrial disturbance and road density. Impaired sites Scrimgeour et Bull trout AB habitat loss, & Linear generally had lower densities of bull trout, mountain whitefish, and al. 2008 disturbances rainbow trout, and higher densities of Arctic grayling, than reference sites.

Altered disturbance regime Grizzly bear body condition was greater for individuals using areas (forestry), Land clearing / Grizzly with more forest harvest, oil and gas sites, and regenerating Bourbonnais et AB habitat loss, & Linear bear coniferous forest; however, condition was negatively associated with al. 2014 disturbances use of habitat in close proximity to roads.

Altered disturbance regime Population growth was largely regulated by an interaction between (forestry), Land clearing / Grizzly AB bear density and huckleberry production over time, rather than McLellan 2015 habitat loss, & Linear bear industrial development. disturbances

Proportions of new forest harvest and road development were Altered disturbance regime similar among home-range zones over time, but new well sites were (forestry), Land clearing / Grizzly Sorensen et al. AB more prevalent in contraction than stability zones; suggests habitat loss, & Linear bear 2015 anthropogenic disturbances do not sufficiently account for annual disturbances variations.

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Altered disturbance regime (forestry), Land clearing / Grizzly Grizzly bears selected for edge habitat, especially in the fall. Stewart et al. AB habitat loss, & Linear bear Females selected for road edges and pipelines more than males. 2013 disturbances

Moose declined in response to incremental land cover changes of up to 43% as wolf density increased; however, moose occurrence Stewart and Various Moose AB increased (and wolves declined) where land cover changes were Komers 2017 greater than 43%.

Altered disturbance regime (forestry), Land clearing / Moose avoided linear features and primary roads, but generally Wasser et al. Moose AB habitat loss, & Linear selected for forage over security. 2011 disturbances

When tracking elk movement before and after a 35% closure of Altered disturbance regime roads in a region, authors found elk increasingly used open foraging (forestry), Linear disturbances Elk OR Cole et al. 2004 habitat, but continued to not use land <150m from roads. Use of & Noise / wildlife disturbances forest harvest areas was more than expected.

Evidence of sediment-driven and food chain mediated exposure to elevated arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in bull trout from Kiser et al. Contaminant release Bull trout ID a watershed with historical mining. Impacts to bull trout livers were 2010 noted.

Selenium accumulation in muscle tissue downstream of mining Kuchapski and Contaminant release Bull trout BC activities was similar among multiple fish species, but greater than Rasmussen in lower trophic levels. Fish biomass was significantly related to 2015

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

selenium concentrations in muscle tissues of rainbow trout only (not bull trout).

High concentration of selenium in fish tissues in lakes versus rivers Contaminant release Bull trout BC Orr et al. 2006 likely due to enhanced detrital recycling in lake bed sediments.

Muscle biopsies from bull trout inhabiting rivers downstream of coal Palace et al. Contaminant release Bull trout AB mining operations showed Se concentrations expected to impair 2004 recruitment.

Elk tissue collected within Los Alamos grounds had radionuclide concentrations below detection or near those of elk tissues from Fresquez et al. Contaminant release Elk NM background regions, with cancer risk factors for humans below EPA 1999 guidelines.

When comparing N and C isotopes between bears consuming a Grizzly terrestrial diet versus those eating fish, found that piscivorous bears Christensen et Contaminant release BC bear were more exposed to bioaccumulative persistent organic pollutants al. 2005 than bears with primarily terrestrial diets.

Persistent organic pollutants concentrated in bear fat during Grizzly hibernation compared to active periods in the fall. This was related Christensen et Contaminant release BC bear to biomass concentration of the substances because they are not al. 2007 excreted during hibernation.

Moose (and wolf) scat samples collected nearer to oil sands operations showed elevated levels of petrogenic PAHs relative to Lundin et al. Contaminant release Moose AB more distant areas and scat samples from caribou, which showed 2015 elevated levels of pyrogenic PAHs.

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Bull trout manually transported upstream of a dam barrier had Impoundment / hydrological DeHaan and Bull trout ID; MT similar reproductive success and behaviour as those already change Bernall 2013 occupying the same upstream tributaries.

Bull trout manually transported upstream of a barrier dam were later Impoundment / hydrological DeHaan et al. Bull trout ID; MT detected downstream, indicating that manual transport re- change 2011 established connectivity in the system.

Use of dam forebay was limited for both bull trout and burbot; Impoundment / hydrological Martins et al. Bull trout BC however, use and rates of entrainment were greater for bull trout, change 2013 which were more vulnerable in the fall and winter.

Critical swimming speeds for bull trout were determined Impoundment / hydrological Mesa et al. Bull trout MT experimentally in a laboratory with implications for fish passage change 2004 structures and water velocities.

Tagged fish showed movement from upstream to downstream of a Impoundment / hydrological Mogen et al. Bull trout AB dam but pre-spawning periods (during dam closure) showed dam change 2005 impediment to fish movement.

Bull trout night time use of shallow, low-velocity shoreline habitats Impoundment / hydrological Muhlfeld et al. Bull trout MT was sensitive to flow fluctuations. Late summer flow enhancements change 2011 also exceed natural discharge rates and reduce habitat availability.

Transplanting trout species, that typically did not spawn downstream Impoundment / hydrological Schmetterling Bull trout CA of a dam, to upstream areas, resulted in improved spawning change 2003 success.

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Four fish were tracked using telemetry and found that 2 remained Impoundment / hydrological Bull trout MT upstream of a dam and possibly spawned, while 2 travelled Swanberg 1997 change downstream of the dam and attempted to migrate back upstream.

Odds of bull trout movement decreased during times of greater discharge, and increased with warmer temperatures in a Impoundment / hydrological Taylor et al. Bull trout BC hydropeaking reach of the Columbia River. No evidence of change 2014 discharge associated downstream displacement was found, and movement direction was unpredictable.

Impoundment / hydrological The genetic code of bull trout in a dammed river was unique relative Winans et al. Bull trout WA change to control rivers. 2008

Grizzly bear diets on reclaimed mine sites were less carnivorous Grizzly Cristescu et al. Land clearing / habitat loss AB than those on neighbouring Rocky Mountain and foothill sites, bear 2015 highlighting adaptability to available food resources.

Upon tracking moose movement and habitat use in a copper mining Westworth et Land clearing / habitat loss Moose BC landscape, authors showed browse availability among habitat types al. 1989 influenced moose distribution more than disturbed areas.

Elk habitat use shifted to areas with greater escape cover, terrain ruggedness, and distance from roads following regional coal bed Land clearing / habitat loss & Buchanan et al. Elk WY natural gas development. Distributional changes resulted in 43.1% Linear disturbances 2014 and 50.2% losses of high-use areas in summer and winter periods, respectively.

Land use, climate change and ecological responses in the Upper North Saskatchewan and Red Deer River Basins: A scientific assessment 121

Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Land clearing / habitat loss & Elk harvest efficiency by hunters was positively associated with the Dorning et al. Elk WY Linear disturbances occurrence of oil and gas wells. 2017

Land clearing / habitat loss, Elk showed individual variation for selection / avoidance that was Dzialak et al. Linear disturbances, & Noise / Elk CO amplified in developed areas; and human factors were more 2011 wildlife disturbances influential than maternal status on resource use.

Land clearing / habitat loss & Not GPS-collared elk showed consistent activity at least 50 m from Elk Frair et al. 2005 Linear disturbances available anthropogenic linear clearings.

Female elk resource selection varied among years, but individuals Land clearing / habitat loss & generally avoided roads and wellsites. Elk within gas fields also Harju et al. Elk CO Linear disturbances selected for greater security cover, slopes, and distance to edge 2011 habitats.

Chetkiewicz Land clearing / habitat loss & Grizzly Resource selection functions for grizzly bears indicated selection for AB and Boyce Linear disturbances bear habitat with lower road densities in the spring. 2009

Analysis of GPS cluster data indicated that grizzly bears modified Land clearing / habitat loss & Grizzly Cristescu et al. AB their behaviour moving through human-altered landscapes, Linear disturbances bear 2015 including reclaimed open-pit mines.

Grizzly bear subpopulations showed greater genetic distances Land clearing / habitat loss & Grizzly AB; BC; Proctor et al. across developed valleys and roadways. Bears moved at reduced Linear disturbances bear YT 2012 rates with greater development and road traffic.

Land clearing / habitat loss & Moose predation rates by wolf increased near mines and at low Neilson and Moose AB Linear disturbances densities of linear features. Boutin 2017

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Land clearing / habitat loss & Bighorn Bighorn sheep winter use of mine areas varied seasonally, from 10- Poole et al. BC Noise / wildlife disturbances sheep 20% in November-April to 60-65% in September-October. 2016

Land clearing / habitat loss & Elk were less active and occurred less in more developed areas Goad et al. Elk CO Noise / wildlife disturbances along an exurban development gradient. 2014

Compared to predevelopment behaviour, elk use decreased 30% Land clearing / habitat loss & where ski-related human activity was high. Elk use was 4% of Morrison et al. Elk CO Noise / wildlife disturbances predevelopment levels where ski hill development was intense on 1995 an areal basis.

Elk showed adaptability by eventually exploiting enhanced forage Land clearing / habitat loss & Van Dyke et al. Elk CO opportunities in experimental cut blocks adjacent to oil and gas Noise / wildlife disturbances 2012 facilities.

Comparison of pre and post drilling and installation of oil wells Land clearing / habitat loss & vanDyke and Elk MT showed little effects on elk social stability. Elk did respond to drilling Noise / wildlife disturbances Klein 1996 by changing ranges and centers of activity within the habitat.

Male and solitary female grizzly bears avoided active mining Land clearing / habitat loss & Grizzly activities and selected for extraction areas after closure; however, Cristescu et al. AB Noise / wildlife disturbances bear females with cubs selected for mineral surface leases regardless of 2016 their activity.

Grizzly bears had less home range overlap with mining areas while Land clearing / habitat loss & Grizzly they were active, with the exception of females with cubs. Both Cristescu et al. AB Noise / wildlife disturbances bear males and females with cubs made more use of mines following 2016 their closure and reclamation.

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Stressor(s) Species Region Summary Source

Male bears generally inhabited lands closer to linear features than Land clearing / habitat loss, females. However, females were more likely to select habitat closer Grizzly Gibeau et al. Linear disturbances & Noise / MT to human settlements than males. Human avoidance by bears was bear 2002 wildlife disturbances more important than consuming high quality food closer to human activity.

Elk in proximity to gas fields had smaller home ranges and travelled Land clearing / habitat loss, greater distances over more complex paths. Elk within gas fields Webb et al. Linear disturbances, & Noise / Elk CO; NM showed difference space use and movement than elk outside of the 2011 wildlife disturbances fields, depending on amount of human activity.

Land clearing / habitat loss, Grizzly bear selection for areas in relation to oil and gas features Grizzly Laberee et al. Linear disturbances, & Noise / AB varied by season and sex. Active wellsites were avoided in the fall, bear 2014 wildlife disturbances and roads were a greater deterrent than pipelines.

Land clearing / habitat loss, Female grizzly bears with cubs used wellsites more than single Grizzly Mckay et al. Linear disturbances, & Noise / AB females or males; however, use was greater at wellsites with less bear 2014 wildlife disturbances surrounding disturbance.

Upon tracking bison during winter in regions with active road grooming during a nine-year period, results showed no preferential Bruggeman et Linear disturbances Bison MT; WY use of groomed roads by bison. Roads did not affect general bison al. 2006 ecology or spatial distribution.

Decommissioning of roads resulted in less fine sediment within McCaffery et al. Linear disturbances Bull trout MT streams. 2007

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Peak elk activity at wildlife crossing structures over a highway in Banff differed from backcountry sites in BC. Specific factors of Barrueto et al. Linear disturbances Elk AB; BC wildlife crossing structures (e.g. age or type) had variable effects on 2014 the different carnivore and ungulate species studied.

Elk selected parturition sites in areas with lower road densities at Lehman et al. Linear disturbances Elk SD broad scales, and farther from roads at smaller scales. 2016

Elk avoided roads at all times of the day, but avoidance was greatest at twilight (and least during the day). Elk also selected for Prokopenko et Linear disturbances Elk AB greater cover and moved more when near roads, and generally al. 2017 avoided road crossings.

Elk avoided roads during fall migration and throughout the winter Prokopenko et Linear disturbances Elk AB season; however, avoidance of lesser used roads decreased as al. 2017 road density increased.

Selection of habitat by elk increased with increasing distance from Rowland et al. Linear disturbances Elk OR open roads. This selection varied between seasons but not between 2000 years and not among different individuals.

Elk; Proximity of ungulate kill sites to roadways in Banff did not change Ford and Linear disturbances Bighorn AB after the installation of wildlife crossing structures, suggesting they Clevenger sheep do not represent a prey-trap. 2010

Boulanger and Grizzly Linear disturbances AB Grizzly bear population trends were related to road density, and Stenhouse bear lower road densities were needed to ensure population stability 2014

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when accounting for differing survival rates based on bear reproductive state.

Female grizzly bears crossed roads more frequently than males and Grizzly individuals with cubs were in close proximity to roads more Graham et al. Linear disturbances AB bear frequently than expected. Crossings were most common at narrow, 2010 unpaved roads near creeks and open areas.

Locations of bear crossings over a busy highway were clustered in Grizzly space and crossings occurred more frequently at night. Graves et al. Linear disturbances AK bear Observations of greater speeds crossing the roads compared to 2006 before or after crossing were made.

Using radio collar telemetry, this study found grizzly bear avoidance Grizzly Kasworm and Linear disturbances MT of active trails and roads compared to areas without roads or areas bear Manley 1990 with seasonally-accessible roads.

GPS-collared bears increased use of landscapes with larger mean Grizzly Linke et al. Linear disturbances AB patch sizes, while closed forest conditions were used less by the bear 2005 bears.

Grizzly bears selected for areas with no roads or roads with fewer Grizzly Mace et al. Linear disturbances MT than 10 vehicle uses per day. Higher bear use in higher use road bear 1996 areas occurred in spring only.

Grizzly bears crossed roads and used adjacent habitat more often Grizzly during the night, when traffic was reduced. Bears also avoided Northrup et al. Linear disturbances AB bear roads with moderate (20-100 vehicles per day) and high (>100 2012 vehicles per day) traffic.

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Grizzly At local spatial scales, grizzly bears selected for winter hibernation Pigeon et al. Linear disturbances AB bear den locations with low adjacent road density. 2014

Grizzly bears selected for areas next to roads (disturbed) more often Grizzly Roever et al. Linear disturbances AB in spring and early summer; and natural road-like habitats in late bear 2008 summer and fall.

Tracking bear habitat selection across three road types showed Grizzly Wielgus et al. Linear disturbances Various inconsistencies with the hypothesis that bears select against a bear 2002 gradient of open, restricted and closed roads.

Moose needed 140 cm clearance to pass under pipelines Dunne and Linear disturbances Moose AB associated with in situ oil sands development; and crossing Quinn 2009 structures were used more than elevated sections of pipeline.

Moose selected for regrowth of roadside vegetation cut later during Linear disturbances Moose BC the growing season (August and September) over plants cuts earlier Rea et al. 2010 (June and July).

Moose-vehicle collisions are more likely when roadside mineral licks Linear disturbances Moose BC are present and when roads cut through black spruce forest- Rea et al. 2014 sphagnum bog habitats.

Distance of pronghorn groups from recreational trails decreased Linear disturbances & Noise / Bighorn substantially after trails were open for recreational use. Smaller Fairbanks and UT wildlife disturbances sheep groups of pronghorn were further from open recreational trails than Tullous 2002 larger groups.

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Upon comparing low-use to high-use visitor years in a Utah park, Linear disturbances & Noise / Bighorn Papouchis et UT sheep largely avoided roads in busy years, though some individuals wildlife disturbances sheep al. 2001 became human habituated.

By examining the flight response of bison to hiking and biking, there Linear disturbances & Noise / Taylor and Bison UT was a 70% probability of flight within 100 m of an actively used trail. wildlife disturbances Knight 2003 Increasing body size increased the risk of flight due to disturbance.

Elk decreased feeding time near roads, and switched to more Linear disturbances & Noise / vigilant behaviour when road use was at least one vehicle every two Elk AB Ciuti et al. 2012 wildlife disturbances hours. Summertime vigilance was greater on public lands with hunting and motorized recreation than national parks.

Elk increased their travel times more in response to ATV exposure Linear disturbances & Noise / than mountain biking, hiking, or horseback riding. ATV exposure Naylor et al. Elk OR wildlife disturbances was associated with reduced feeding time, while mountain biking 2009 and hiking were associated with reduced resting time.

Using elk enclosures and various OHV distances to elk, flight Linear disturbances & Noise / probability increased when OHVs were even at long distances Preisler et al. Elk OR wildlife disturbances away, and also increased when elk position was closer to OHV 2006 routes, regardless of OHV presence.

Experimental disturbances indicated that elk avoided all-terrain Linear disturbances & Noise / Preisler et al. Elk OR vehicles at up to 1 km, mountain bikers at up to 500 m, and hikers wildlife disturbances 2013 and horseback riders at up to 200 m.

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This study tracks the use of newly constructed road crossing Linear disturbances & Noise / Grizzly structures by grizzly and found that lack of human activity promoted Clevenger and AB wildlife disturbances bear crossing use. Different crossing types also selected for use by Waltho 2005 different animals.

Bears avoided human interactions by bedding at day and selecting Linear disturbances & Noise / Grizzly Cristescu et al. AB for cover far from trails during the summer when recreation use was wildlife disturbances bear 2013 highest, trading optimal food resources for security from humans.

Grizzly bears selected habitats at higher elevation and farther from Linear disturbances & Noise / Grizzly Ladle et al. AB roads than black bears; and showed reduced use of sites with wildlife disturbances bear 2018 motorized recreation.

Tracked grizzly bears showed avoidance of roads and trails during Linear disturbances & Noise / Grizzly Mace and MT seasons of heavier human use. Bears selected open habitat versus wildlife disturbances bear Waller 1996 forested where trails typically were located.

Linear disturbances & Noise / Grizzly Habitat selection by grizzly was negatively associated with densities Mace et al. MT wildlife disturbances bear of roads and other human activity variables in spring and summer. 1999

Linear disturbances & Noise / Grizzly Radio collared bears were associated with low human densities and Suring et al. AK wildlife disturbances bear roads; high densities were related to riparian areas close to cover. 2006

Moose bedding and feeding patterns within 150 m of passing Colescott and Linear disturbances & Noise / snowmobiles caused moose to move away from the disturbance Moose WY Gillingham wildlife disturbances throughout the day. However, snowmobile activity did not affect the 1998 number of active moose in the disturbed area.

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Bighorn Overflights of military jets did not change the foraging behavior of Bernatas et al. Noise / wildlife disturbances ID sheep bighorn sheep compared to a control herd. 1998

When simulating mining activities, disturbed elk calves moved Kuck et al. Noise / wildlife disturbances Elk ID greater distances throughout the forest and abandoned tradition 1985 calving grounds compared to undisturbed calves.

A treatment-control experiment consisting of 1 pre treatment year and 2 post-treatment years showed intentional disturbance and Phillips and Noise / wildlife disturbances Elk CO displacement of elk during calving season decreased survivability of Alldredge 2000 calves compared to control elk.

Treatment elk subjected to recreational activity had lower Shively et al. Noise / wildlife disturbances Elk CO productivity compared to control subjects exposed to less human 2005 disturbance.

Grizzly bears were 0.35 times less likely to be within 200 m of Grizzly Coleman et al. Noise / wildlife disturbances AB backcountry campsites when occupied, but 2.11 times more likely bear 2013 when campsite occupancy was ignored.

Integration of results from empirical studies indicates that brown bears are more exposed to recreation in coastal areas (photography Grizzly Fortin et al. Noise / wildlife disturbances BC and bear-viewing) than interior areas (camping and hiking), and that bear 2016 bears are primarily affected by greater energy expenditure and less nutritional input as a result of spatial and temporal displacement.

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Found individual variation of grizzly bear tolerance to boat-based Grizzly Sarah and Noise / wildlife disturbances AK wildlife viewing, highlighting importance of behavioural recognition bear Shultis 2015 to avoid displacement.

Elk occurrence was driven by both habitat selection and avoidance Dzialak et al. Various Elk CO of human activity; however, mortality risk was primarily linked to 2011 industrial development.

Polfus and Review indicates ungulates (including elk) generally show short- Various Elk Various Krausman term behavioural changes associated with human disturbance. 2012

Study reviews literature assessing impacts of natural resource Venier et al. Various Elk Various development on various terrestrial endpoints across the boreal 2014 region of Canada.

The most significant source of elk mortality was hunter harvest; Webb et al. Various Elk CO however, annual and harvest season survival probabilities were 2011 both influenced by extent of human footprint/activity.

Using a cumulative effects model, incremental human development Grizzly Various AB; BC has alienated grizzly from core refugia areas that are considered Gibeau 1998 bear only moderately productive habitat.

Grizzly bear abundance was greatest in areas with greater distance Grizzly from new disturbance, lower adjacent disturbance density, and Linke et al. Various AB bear greater availability of regenerating forests. Grizzly absence was also 2013 more likely in areas further from protected areas.

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Grizzly Mortality rates of bears were greater in human-use areas compared Mace and Various MT bear to multiple-use areas, which were source areas for the population. Waller 1998

By linking location of bear mortalities with human activities and Grizzly Nielsen et al. Various AB; BC landscape types, this study found that human access was the main bear 2004 predictor of grizzly mortality, rather than landscape types.

Grizzly Review paper on large carnivore resilience to environmental Weaver et al. Various Various bear disturbances. 1996

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