POPULATION OVERVIEW an OVERVIEW of TORBAY – 2018 the Purpose of This Profile Is to Give an Overview of the Current and Future Population of Torbay

POPULATION OVERVIEW AN OVERVIEW OF TORBAY – 2018 The purpose of this profile is to give an overview of the current and future population of Torbay. This is to provide local summary statistics, and help organisations to plan future services appropriately.

Torbay has, on average, 5 deaths and 3 births a day (2018). Without inward migration, Torbay’s population would shrink. Torbay’s overall profile is one that is older than the England average.

Headlines: Estimated counts of residents by age group over  Torbay’s total population is estimated to grow time are presented in Table 1 below. by around 5.0% between 2017 and 2027 (5.7% in England) Table 1: Current and future resident population by age group in Torbay (2017-2027)  Torbay’s over 75 population is expected to % change increase by around 36.5%, from 16,260 to Count (from 2017) 22,200 by 2027 (34.1% in England) Age 2017 group 2022 2027 2027  Torbay’s 10 to 19 year old population is (actual) expected to increase by around 13.6%, 0 to 4 7,180 6,900 6,800 -5.3% 5 to 9 7,320 7,500 7,200 -1.6% between 2017 and 2027 from 13,640 to 10 to 14 6,855 7,700 7,800 13.8% 15,500 (14.2% in England) 15 to 19 6,785 6,900 7,700 13.5% 20 to 24 6,390 5,700 5,900 -7.7%  1,246 Torbay residents were born, and 1,816 25 to 29 6,940 6,900 6,200 -10.7% Torbay residents died, in the financial year 30 to 34 6,885 6,900 6,800 -1.2% 2017/18. 35 to 39 6,495 6,900 7,200 10.9% 40 to 44 7,085 7,000 7,400 4.4% 45 to 49 8,990 7,500 7,500 -16.6% Ageing – Overall, Torbay has an ageing 50 to 54 10,095 9,500 8,000 -20.8% population, with proportionately more older 55 to 59 9,705 10,600 10,100 4.1% people compared to England, shown by the bars 60 to 64 9,175 10,300 11,400 24.3% 65 to 69 9,660 9,400 10,700 10.8% that overlap the black line in Figure 1 below. 70 to 74 9,435 9,500 9,300 -1.4% The proportion of people over 65 years in 75 to 79 6,355 8,700 8,800 38.5% 80 to 84 4,860 5,300 7,400 52.3% England is now similar to where Torbay was in 85 to 89 3,045 3,400 3,800 24.8% the 1980s. 90+ 2,000 2,000 2,200 10.0% All ages 135,245 138,500 142,000 5.0% Source: ONS MYE resident pop 2017 - counts rounded to nearest 5. Fig 1: Population pyramid for Torbay (2017) Projected resident pop (2016 based) - counts rounded to nearest 100.

The increase in the younger 10 to 19 population, at around 1,860, could increase demand for school and college provision.

The increase in the older 75+ age groups could increase need and demand for services and infrastructure such as adult social care, and primary, secondary and tertiary healthcare.

Source: ONS MYE resident population estimates, 2017

POPULATION OVERVIEW AN OVERVIEW OF TORBAY – 2018

As Torbay’s population ages, the ratio of the Some 15-19 year olds will be living away from workforce to retirement age population is home attending further education. expected to decrease. In 2017, for every person A population summary by town and electoral of retirement age, there were just over 2 persons ward is shown in Table 2 (below). There is of working age in Torbay. This compares to nearly demographic variation across Torbay with older 3.5 persons in England as shown in Figure 2. populations in Wellswood, and Churston with Fig 2: Ratio of retired to working age population Galmpton, and a younger population in King’s Ash, Ellacombe, and Barton with Watcombe. Table 2: Current resident population by electoral ward in Torbay (2017) % of Average Count Torbay age pop (years)

Torbay (2017) 135,245 - 44.9 Town Brixham 16,975 12.6% 48.8 Source: ONS MYE resident population estimates, 2017 Paignton 51,005 37.7% 45.6 Torquay 67,265 49.7% 43.4 Migration – In 2017, there was a net gain in the Ward (2019 boundaries, estimated populations) Barton with Torbay population of around 840 residents. An 11,925 8.8% 40.0 Watcombe estimated 7,490 moved to Torbay from Churston with 7,020 5.2% 51.3 Galmpton elsewhere in the UK, and 6,340 moved out. This Clifton with 8,415 6.2% 42.8 net change by age is shown in Fig 3. The highest Maidenway Cockington with 7,990 5.9% 44.2 net loss was in the 15 to 19 year old group Chelston (around 230) and the highest net gain in the 60- Collaton St Mary 2,305 1.7% 41.2 Ellacombe 8,030 5.9% 39.9 64 year age group (around 230). Estimated long- Furzeham with 10,325 7.6% 49.7 term international migration was a net gain (200). Summercombe Goodrington with 7,385 5.5% 47.8 Fig 3: Estimated net migration by age group Roselands King’s Ash 7,470 5.5% 39.0

Preston 10,335 7.6% 47.8 Roundham with 8,075 6.0% 46.1 Hyde Shiphay 8,215 6.1% 41.6 St Marychurch 12,240 9.1% 45.8 St Peter’s with St 6,650 4.9% 47.4 Mary’s Tormohun 12,270 9.1% 41.6 Wellswood 6,595 4.9% 54.5

Source: ONS MYE resident pop (2017). Counts rounded to nearest 5. Source: ONS Internal migration estimates, 2017 For more information please visit our JSNA website: www.southdevonandtorbay.info or email: [email protected]