Maryann Semer Fall 2003, No.36 Terri Parrish This Edition Covers Events
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory*
MONETARY POLICY RULES AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY: EVIDENCE AND SOME THEORY* RICHARD CLARIDA JORDI GALI´ MARK GERTLER We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the postwar United States economy, before and after Volcker’s appointment as Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much more sensitive to changes in expected ination than in the pre-Volcker period. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rules for the equilibrium properties of ination and output, using a simple macroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing. I. INTRODUCTION From the late 1960s through the early 1980s, the United States economy experienced high and volatile ination along with several severe recessions. Since the early 1980s, however, ina- tion has remained steadily low, while output growth has been relatively stable. Many economists cite supply shocks—and oil price shocks, in particular—as the main force underlying the instability of the earlier period. It is unlikely, however, that supply shocks alone could account for the observed differences between the two eras. For example, while jumps in the price of oil might help explain transitory periods of sharp increases in the general price level, it is not clear how they alone could explain persistent high ination in the absence of an accommodating monetary policy.1 Furthermore, as De Long {1997} argues, the onset of sustained high ination occurred prior to the oil crisis episodes. * We thank seminar participants at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, New York University, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, University of Maryland, NBER Summer Institute, Universite´ de Toulouse, Bank of Spain, Harvard University, Bank of Mexico, Universitat de Girona, and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, New York, Richmond, Dallas, and Philadelphia, as well as two anonymous referees and two editors for useful comments. -
Targets and Lags in a Two-Equation Model of US Stabilization Policy
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER SERIES Targets and Lags in a Two-Equation Model of US Stabilization Policy David Kiefer Working Paper No: 2011-03 August 2011 (revised November 2011) University of Utah Department of Economics 260 S. Central Campus Dr., Rm. 343 Tel: (801) 581-7481 Fax: (801) 585-5649 http://www.econ.utah.edu Targets and Lags in a Two-Equation Model of US Stabilization Policy David Kiefer * University of Utah November 2011 Abstract Carlin and Soskice (2005) advocate a 3-equation model of stabilization policy, the IS-PC-MR model. One of these is a monetary reaction rule MR derived by assuming that governments have performance objectives, but are constrained by a Phillips curve PC . Central banks attempt to implement these objectives by setting interest rates along an IS curve. We simplify their model to 2 equations ( PC and MR ), developing a state space econometric specification of this solution, and adding a random walk model of unobserved potential growth. This is an appropriate method because it incorporates recursive forecasts of unobservable state variables based on contemporaneous information measured with real-time data. Our results are generally consistent with US economic history. One qualification is that governments are more likely to target growth rates than output gaps. Another inference is that policy affects outcomes after a single lag. This assumption fits the data better than an alternative double-lag timing: one lag for output, plus a second for inflation has been proposed. We also infer that inflation expectations are more likely to be backward than forward looking. JEL codes: E3, E6 Keywords : new Keynesian stabilization, policy targets, real-time data * Department of Economics, 260 S. -
Download Full Issue
FIRST QUARTER 2018 FEDERALFEDERAL RESERVE RESERVE BANK BANK OF OF RICHMOND RICHMOND Are Markets Too Concentrated? Industries are increasingly concentrated in the hands of fewer firms. But is that a bad thing? Do Entrepreneurs Pay Private Currency Interview with Jesús to be Entrepreneurs? Before Cryptocurrency Fernández-Villaverde VOLUME 23 NUMBER 1 FIRST QUARTER 2018 Econ Focus is the economics magazine of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. It covers economic issues affecting the Fifth Federal Reserve District and the nation and is published on a quarterly basis by the Bank’s Research Department. The Fifth District consists of the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, COVER STORY South Carolina, Virginia, 10 and most of West Virginia. Are Markets Too Concentrated? DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH Industries are increasingly concentrated in the hands Kartik Athreya of fewer firms. But is that a bad thing? EDITORIAL ADVISER Aaron Steelman EDITOR Renee Haltom FEATURES 14 SENIOR EDITOR David A. Price Paying for Success MANAGING EDITOR/DESIGN LEAD State and local governments are trying a new financing Kathy Constant model for social programs STAFF WRITERS Helen Fessenden Jessie Romero 17 Tim Sablik EDITORIAL ASSOCIATE Do Entrepreneurs Pay to Be Entrepreneurs? Lisa Kenney Some small-business owners are motivated more by CONTRIBUTORS Selena Carr values than financial gain Santiago Pinto Michael Stanley DESIGN Janin/Cliff Design, Inc. DEPARTMENTS 1 President’s Message/Taxes and the Fed Published quarterly by 2 Upfront/Regional News at a Glance -
14.461: Part I: Technological Change
14.461: Part I: Technological Change Daron Acemoglu September 13, 2011 This course will cover selected topics in theoretical and empirical analysis of technological change. The course will draw both on Acemoglu, Introduction to Modern Economic Growth, Princeton University Press, 2008, and research articles. There will be three problem sets, which will count towards 30% of your …nal grade for this part of the course. The remaining 70% will be from a one half hour …nal examination at the end of the course (time to be determined). Topics Review of Basic Models of Endogenous Technological Progress (two lectures) Main reading: Acemoglu, Daron (2008) Introduction to Modern Economic Growth, Chap- ters 13 and 14. Jones, Charles I (1995) “Timeseries Tests of Endogenous Growth Models” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110. Other references: Aghion, Philippe and Peter Howitt (1992) “A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction”Econometrica, 60, 323-351 Aghion, Philippe and Peter Howitt (2008) The Economics of Growth, MIT, Cambridge. Backus, David, Patrick J. Kehoe and Timothy J. Kehoe (1992) “In Search of Scale E¤ects in Trade and Growth.” Journal of Economic Theory, 58, pp. 377-409. Grossman, Gene and Elhanan Helpman (1991) “Quality Ladders in the The- ory of Growth”Review of Economic Studies, 58, 43-61. Moser, Petra (2005) “How Do Patent Laws In‡uence Innovation? Evidence from Nineteenth-Century World Fairs” American Economic Review 95, 1214- 1236. Romer, Paul (1987) “Growth Based on Increasing Returns due to Special- ization”American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 77, 56-62 1 Romer, Paul M. (1990) “Endogenous Technological Change,” Journal of Political Economy 98, S71-S102. -
IO Reading List
Economics 257 – MGTECON 630 Fall 2020 Professor José Ignacio Cuesta [email protected] Professor Liran Einav [email protected] Professor Paulo Somaini [email protected] Industrial Organization I: Reading List I. Imperfect Competition: Background Bresnahan, Tim “Empirical Studies with Market Power,” Handbook of Industrial Organization, vol. II, chap. 17. Einav, Liran and Jonathan Levin. “Empirical Industrial Organization: A Progress Report,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(2), 145-162 (2010). Tirole, Jean. The Theory of Industrial Organization, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1988. A. Test of Market Power Ashenfelter, O., and D. Sullivan, “Nonparametric Tests of Market Structure: An Application to the Cigarette Industry,” Journal of Industrial Economics 35, 483-498, (1989). Baker, J., and T. Bresnahan, “Estimating the residual demand curve facing a single firm,” International Journal of Industrial Organization 6(3), 283-300, (1988). Corts, K., “Conduct Parameters and the Measurement of Market Power,” Journal of Econometrics 88, 227-225, (1999). Genesove, D. and W. Mullin, “Testing Static Oligopoly Models: Conduct and Cost in the Sugar Industry, 1890-1914,” Rand Journal of Economics 29(2), 355-377, (1989). Stigler, G. “A Theory of Oligopoly,” The Journal of Political Economy, 72(1), 44-61, (1964) Sumner, D., “Measurement of Monopoly Behavior: An Application to the Cigarette Industry,” Journal of Political Economy 89, 1010-1019, (1981). Wolfram, C., “Measurement of Monopoly Behavior: An Application to the Cigarette Industry,” American Economic Review 89($), 805-826, (1999). B. Differentiated Products Anderson, S. P., A. de Palma, and J. F. Thisse, Discrete Choice Theory of Product Differentiation, Chapters 1-5, Cambridge: MIT Press, (1992). Caplin, A., and B. -
Structural Methods for Labor Economics Fall 2008 Course
Department of Economics, UC Berkeley Economics 250c: Structural Methods for Labor Economics Fall 2008 Course Outline and Reading List The goal of the course is to provide a selective overview of more “structural” methods in labor economics and empirical micro, including single period models and dynamic choice problems. Students are assumed to be familiar with basic econometrics and consumer demand theory, and with “reduced form” methods such as regression, instrumental variables, etc. Three recommended text books are: J. Angist and S. Pischke, Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton Press, forthcoming 2008. I have managed to get an advanced copy of this text -- paper copies will be available to class members. This is highly recommended for people who want to catch up on classic reduced form methods. K. Train, Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge U. Press, 2003. J. Adda and R. Cooper, Dynamic Programming: Theory and Applications. MIT Press, 2003. These three are all relatively easy reading. I also recommend the “What’s New in Econometrics?” (WNiE) lectures by G. Imbens and J. Wooldridge (especially lectures 6, 11, 9, and 7, in that order) which are available at the NBER website. Preliminary Outline (Incomplete and subject to additions/changes). 1. Introductory Lecture: Structural vs. Alternative Approaches Background reading: Daniel McFadden. “Economics Choices.” AER, June 2001. Edward E. Leamer. “Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics.” AER March 1983. 2. Simple Static Choice Models Michael Ransom. “An Empirical Model of Discrete and Continuous Choice in Family Labor Supply.” Review of Economics and Statistics 69 (3) (1987): 465-472. (See also: Michael Ransom. -
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DO INCREASING MARKUPS MATTER? LESSONS from EMPIRICAL INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION Steven T. Berry Martin Ga
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DO INCREASING MARKUPS MATTER? LESSONS FROM EMPIRICAL INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION Steven T. Berry Martin Gaynor Fiona Scott Morton Working Paper 26007 http://www.nber.org/papers/w26007 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2019 We wish to thank Al Klevorick and editors at the Journal of Economics Perspectives—Enrico Moretti, Gordon Hanson, and managing editor Tim Taylor—for helpful comments and suggestions that substantially improved the paper. The usual caveat applies. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w26007.ack NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2019 by Steven T. Berry, Martin Gaynor, and Fiona Scott Morton. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Do Increasing Markups Matter? Lessons from Empirical Industrial Organization Steven T. Berry, Martin Gaynor, and Fiona Scott Morton NBER Working Paper No. 26007 June 2019 JEL No. L0,L1,L4 ABSTRACT This paper considers the recent literature on firm markups in light of both new and classic work in the field of Industrial Organization. We detail the shortcomings of papers that rely on discredited approaches from the “structure-conduct-performance” literature. -
Stanley Fischer: (Money), Interest and Prices – Patinkin and Woodford
Stanley Fischer: (Money), interest and prices – Patinkin and Woodford Speech by Mr Stanley Fischer, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at “A Conference in Honor of Michael Woodford’s Contributions to Economics”, cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Columbia University Program for Economic Research, and Columbia University Department of Economics, New York City, 19 May 2016. * * * The Footnotes can be found at the end of the speech. I am grateful to Hess Chung, Rochelle Edge, William English, Michael Kiley, Thomas Laubach, Matthias Paustian, David Reifschneider, Jeremy Rudd, and Stacey Tevlin of the Federal Reserve Board for their advice and assistance It is an honor for me to speak at the opening of this conference in honor of Michael Woodford, whose contributions to the theory of economic policy are frequently a central part of the economic analysis that takes place in the policy discussions at the Federal Reserve. The main story I want to tell today is about the quality of Michael’s major book, Interest and Prices (henceforth MWIP). I will start with his predecessors, beginning as Michael does in his Interest and Prices with Wicksell.1, 2 I shall quote key points from and about Wicksell’s Interest and Prices (henceforth KWIP), and following that, from Patinkin’s Money, Interest, and Prices (second edition, 1965) (henceforth MIP), which are relevant to MWIP, Michael Woodford’s Interest and Prices (2003). Wicksell’s interest and prices (1898) 1. Inflation. The subtitle of Wicksell’s Interest and Prices (KWIP) is A Study of the Causes Regulating the Value of Money and its opening paragraph emphasizes the problem of inflation: Changes in the general level of prices have always excited great interest. -
Fundação Getulio Vargas Escola De Economia De São Paulo Evandro Costa De Oliveira Schulz Estudo Do Nível Da Taxa Neutra De J
FUNDAÇÃO GETULIO VARGAS ESCOLA DE ECONOMIA DE SÃO PAULO EVANDRO COSTA DE OLIVEIRA SCHULZ ESTUDO DO NÍVEL DA TAXA NEUTRA DE JUROS DO BRASIL ESTIMADO POR REGRA DE TAYLOR COM DADOS EM PAINEL DE PAÍSES EMERGENTES ENTRE 1995-2018 SÃO PAULO 2019 EVANDRO COSTA DE OLIVEIRA SCHULZ ESTUDO DO NÍVEL DA TAXA NEUTRA DE JUROS DO BRASIL ESTIMADO POR REGRA DE TAYLOR COM DADOS EM PAINEL DE PAÍSES EMERGENTES ENTRE 1995-2018 Dissertação apresentada à Escola de Economia de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas, como requisito para obtenção do título de Mestre em Economia. Campo de conhecimento: Macroeconomia Orientador: Prof. Dr. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos SÃO PAULO 2019 Schulz, Evandro Costa de Oliveira. Estudo do nível da taxa neutra de juros do Brasil estimado por Regra de Taylor com dados em painel de países emergentes entre 1995-2018 / Evandro Costa de Oliveira Schulz. - 2019. 69 f. Orientador: Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos. Dissertação (mestrado profissional MPFE) – Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Economia de São Paulo. 1. Taxas de juros - Brasil. 2. Taylor, Regra de. 3. Análise de painel. 4. Análise de regressão. 5. Modelos econométricos. 6. Macroeconomia. I. Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury. II. Dissertação (mestrado profissional MPFE) – Escola de Economia de São Paulo. III. Fundação Getulio Vargas. IV. Título. CDU 336.781.5 Ficha Catalográfica elaborada por: Isabele Oliveira dos Santos Garcia CRB SP-010191/O Biblioteca Karl A. Boedecker da Fundação Getulio Vargas - SP EVANDRO COSTA DE OLIVEIRA SCHULZ ESTUDO DO NÍVEL DA TAXA NEUTRA DE JUROS DO BRASIL ESTIMADO POR REGRA DE TAYLOR COM DADOS EM PAINEL DE PAÍSES EMERGENTES ENTRE 1995-2018 Dissertação apresentada à Escola de Economia de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas, como requisito para obtenção do título de Mestre em Economia. -
Inside the Economist's Mind: the History of Modern
1 Inside the Economist’s Mind: The History of Modern Economic Thought, as Explained by Those Who Produced It Paul A. Samuelson and William A. Barnett (eds.) CONTENTS Foreword: Reflections on How Biographies of Individual Scholars Can Relate to a Science’s Biography Paul A. Samuelson Preface: An Overview of the Objectives and Contents of the Volume William A. Barnett History of Thought Introduction: Economists Talking with Economists, An Historian’s Perspective E. Roy Weintraub INTERVIEWS Chapter 1 An Interview with Wassily Leontief Interviewed by Duncan K. Foley Chapter 2 An Interview with David Cass Interviewed jointly by Steven E. Spear and Randall Wright Chapter 3 An Interview with Robert E. Lucas, Jr. Interviewed by Bennett T. McCallum Chapter 4 An Interview with Janos Kornai Interviewed by Olivier Blanchard Chapter 5 An Interview with Franco Modigliani Interviewed by William A. Barnett and Robert Solow Chapter 6 An Interview with Milton Friedman Interviewed by John B. Taylor Chapter 7 An Interview with Paul A. Samuelson Interviewed by William A. Barnett Chapter 8 An Interview with Paul A. Volcker Interviewed by Perry Mehrling 2 Chapter 9 An Interview with Martin Feldstein Interviewed by James M. Poterba Chapter 10 An Interview with Christopher A. Sims Interviewed by Lars Peter Hansen Chapter 11 An Interview with Robert J. Shiller Interviewed by John Y. Campbell Chapter 12 An Interview with Stanley Fischer Interviewed by Olivier Blanchard Chapter 13 From Uncertainty to Macroeconomics and Back: An Interview with Jacques Drèze Interviewed by Pierre Dehez and Omar Licandro Chapter 14 An Interview with Tom J. Sargent Interviewed by George W. -
Curriculum Vitae for James J. Heckman
September 13, 2021 James Joseph Heckman Department of Economics University of Chicago 1126 East 59th Street Chicago, Illinois 60637 Telephone: (773) 702-0634 Fax: (773) 702-8490 Email: [email protected] Personal Date of Birth: April 19, 1944 Place of Birth: Chicago, Illinois Education B.A. 1965 (Math) Colorado College (summa cum laude) M.A. 1968 (Econ) Princeton University Ph.D. 1971 (Econ) Princeton University Dissertation “Three Essays on Household Labor Supply and the Demand for Market Goods.” Sponsors: S. Black, H. Kelejian, A. Rees Graduate and Undergraduate Academic Honors Phi Beta Kappa Woodrow Wilson Fellow NDEA Fellow NIH Fellow Harold Willis Dodds Fellow Post-Graduate Honors Honorary Degrees and Professorships Doctor Honoris Causa, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria. Jan- uary, 2017. Doctor of Social Sciences Honoris Causa, Lignan University, Hong Kong, China. November, 2015. Honorary Doctorate of Science (Economics), University College London. September, 2013. Doctor Honoris Causis, Pontifical University, Santiago, Chile. August, 2009. Doctor Honoris Causis, University of Montreal.´ May 2004. 1 September 13, 2021 Doctor Honoris Causis, Bard College, May 2004. Doctor Honoris Causis, UAEM, Mexico. January 2003. Doctor Honoris Causis, University of Chile, Fall 2002. Honorary Doctor of Laws, Colorado College, 2001. Honorary Professor, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, June, 2014. Honorary Professor, Renmin University, P. R. China, June, 2010. Honorary Professor, Beijing Normal University, P. R. China, June, 2010. Honorary Professor, Harbin Institute of Technology, P. R. China, October, 2007. Honorary Professor, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, 2003. Honorary Professor, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China, 2001. Honorary Professor, University of Tucuman, October, 1998. -
A Theory of Demand Shocks
A Theory of Demand Shocks Guido Lorenzoni November 2008 Abstract This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expec- tations regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity. The public signal gives rise to “noise shocks,” which have the features of aggregate demand shocks: they increase output, employment and in‡ation in the short run and have no e¤ects in the long run. The dynamics of the economy following an aggregate productivity shock are also a¤ected by the presence of imperfect information: after a pos- itive productivity shock output adjusts gradually to its higher long-run level, and there is a temporary negative e¤ect on in‡ation and employment. Numerical results suggest that the model can generate sizeable amounts of noise-driven volatility in the short run. JEL Codes: E32, D58, D83 Keywords: Consumer con…dence, aggregate demand shocks, business cycles, imperfect information. MIT and NBER. Email: [email protected]. A previous version of this paper circulated under the title: “Imperfect Information, Consumers’Expectations, and Business Cycles.” I gratefully acknowledge the useful comments of Mark Gertler, three anonymous referees, Marios Angeletos, Robert Barsky, Olivier Blanchard, Ricardo Caballero, Michele Cavallo, Larry Christiano, Veronica Guerrieri, Christian Hellwig, Steve Morris, Nancy Stokey, Laura Veldkamp, Iván Werning, Mike Woodford and seminar participants at MIT, University of Virginia, Ohio State University, UCLA, Yale, NYU, Ente Einaudi-Rome, the Minnesota Workshop in Macro Theory, Columbia University, Boston College, University of Michigan, AEA Meetings (Philadelphia), University of Cambridge, LSE, UCL, NBER EFG, Northwestern, Boston University.