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Swiss Life Holding

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Swiss Life Holding Swiss Life Baader Europe Life Insurance / Switzerland Shareholders benefit from the new “2021” programme Add Upside: 7.72% Target Price (6 months) CHF 464 Share Price CHF 431 Our investment view Market Cap. CHFM 13,404 Swiss Life Group is a Swiss-based insurance group which specialises in life Price Momentum STRONG insurance. Its core markets are Switzerland, France and Germany. The market Extremes 12Months 247 493 has not really been in favour of life insurance business because of the concerns Fundamental Strength 5 /10 about low interest rate levels. However, Switzerland’s life insurance market is Bloomberg SLHN SW Equity running well despite decades of low interest rate levels. Switzerland is by far the Reuters SLHN.S most important country unit for Swiss Life. The ageing population in Europe and empty government pockets are strong arguments in the long run. Swiss Life has been expanding its third-party real-estate asset management business for some years. One focus of the equity story is the group’s continuing growth in fee and commission income, driven by the expansion in third-party asset management, other third-party services and the advisory business (e.g. Swiss Life Select). Swiss Life aims to increase its fee results significantly by the end of 2021 to CHF600-650m. Further acquisitions in the Asset Management business seem possible. Net new money inflow for third-party AuM has been strong. The dividend payout ratio for shareholders was increased from 30-50% to 50-60% of profit from FY2019 onwards. Swiss Life reported solid H1 20 figures despite the COVID -19 crisis. The (adjusted) RoE of 10.2% for H1 20 was above the ambition of a Analyst : Dieter HEIN range of 8-10%. Swiss Life did not release an estimated COVID-19 impact figure Equity Sales for FY2020 or H1 20. It said that the savings result is its most impacted profit [email protected] source so far due to the high capital market dependency. It has seen no or no Frankfurt +49 69 1388 1357 London +44 20 7054 7100 major impact so far on other income statement items. Swiss Life confirmed the Munich +49 89 5150 1850 financial targets of the “Swiss Life 2021” group-wide programme (one is an Zurich +41 43 388 9200 New York +1 212 935 5150 adjusted return on equity of 8-10%), including FY2020, despite the COVID-19 crisis and its impact. The new share buy-back programme of CHF400m, which PERF 1w 1m 3m 12m was announced in February 2020, was suspended in March 2020. However, Swiss Life Holding 4.51% 5.84% 19.6% -5.86% Swiss Life announced in November 2020 that it will resume the share buy-back Insurance 2.71% 3.83% 18.5% -7.57% programme on 4 January 2021. STOXX 600 1.54% 3.45% 11.1% -2.45% Sector Opinion Underweight What to ask the management? Strongest upside CNP - What are your expectations and outlook regarding the COVID-19 impact on the Worst potential Storebrand life-insurance sector and, specifically, Swiss Life for FY2020 and FY2021? - What impact from the negative yield environment do you expect mid-term on Last updated: 24/08/2020 12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E your life business and your earnings? Do you see a different impact in the Adjusted P/E (x) 12.3 10.0 10.7 10.1 specific countries (EU and Switzerland) you are active in? Dividend yield (%) 4.32 5.30 4.87 5.10 - Acquisitions are an option to increase your market share in core countries. P/Book (x) 0.89 0.79 0.85 0.83 What are the conditions for an acquisition? Adjusted Eps (CHF) 37.5 37.6 40.2 42.6 - How satisfied are you with your German subsidiary? What do you expect from Growth in EPS (%) 14.6 0.19 6.96 5.96 your German subsidiary in the coming years? Dividend (CHF) 20.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 Revenues (CHFM) 24,314 22,060 22,480 22,820 - Swiss Life continues to be active in the real estate segment, what is the group’s Operating profit (CHFM) 1,557 1,480 1,583 1,650 view on the market place? Where do you see growth limits for your third-party Attributable net profit 1,199 1,072 1,201 1,253 asset management business? (CHFM) - Does your digitalisation and acquisition strategy differentiate you from your ROE (after tax) (%) 8.10 7.57 8.17 8.30 Embedded Value per 437 468 457 477 peers? Do you see competitive advantages for Swiss Life? share ... - ESG and sustainability are currently a big theme for some asset manager and Gearing (%) -31.2 -26.0 -19.9 -21.7 financial companies. Have you established an ESG policy for Swiss Life and what are your targets? Sales by Geography Valuation Summary Benchmarks Value Weight Largest comparables Embedded value CHF 438 40% AGEAS P/E CHF 494 20% CNP NAV/SOTP per share CHF 497 15% Storebrand Allianz Dividend Yield CHF 466 15% Generali P/Book CHF 458 10% TARGET PRICE CHF 464 100% Consolidated P&L Accounts 12/19A 12/20E 12/21E Balance Sheet 12/19A 12/20E 12/21E Net Insurance related income CHFM 22,623 20,450 20,850 Investments related to Insur. Activities CHFM 145,690 142,000 147,000 Operating revenues CHFM 24,314 22,060 22,480 Total assets CHFM 228,094 221,140 226,800 Staff costs CHFM -1,094 -1,090 -1,082 Ordinary shareholders' equity CHFM 15,920 14,784 15,310 Combined ratio (non life insurance) % Of which unrealised capital gains CHFM 5,024 3,500 3,200 Gross Operating Profit CHFM 2,042 1,910 2,003 Preference shares CHFM 425 425 425 Underlying operating profit CHFM 1,557 1,480 1,583 Minority interests CHFM 89.0 87.0 88.0 Operating profit CHFM 1,523 1,390 1,555 Subordinated Debt CHFM Corporate tax CHFM -324 -320 -357 Provisions for pensions CHFM 2,160 1,220 1,228 Attributable net profit CHFM 1,199 1,072 1,201 Liabilities arising from Insur. Activities CHFM 167,288 163,100 168,200 Adjusted attributable net profit CHFM 1,233 1,162 1,229 Net debt (cash) CHFM -4,920 -2,775 -3,305 Cashflow Statement Total liabilities and shareholders' equity CHFM 228,094 221,140 226,800 Average net debt (cash) CHFM -4,973 -3,848 -3,040 Adjusted EBIT CHFM 2,042 1,910 2,003 Cash Incr. (Decr.) CHFM 2,160 500 600 Solvency & Risks Ratios Net investments in shares CHFM Solvency margin (given by group) CHFM 16,000 16,200 16,400 Total investment flows CHFM -1,125 90.0 100 ROE (after tax) % 8.10 7.57 8.17 Dividends (parent company) CHFM -547 -638 -622 RoEmb.V % 8.62 8.07 8.81 Interest expenses relating to LT fundi... CHFM 0.00 0.00 0.00 Gross gearing (at book value) % -31.2 -26.0 -19.9 New shareholders' equity CHFM -913 -250 -150 Total debt gross/market cap % 23.5 29.3 26.9 Change in gross debt CHFM Valuation Ratios Total financial flows CHFM -1,007 -788 -622 Reference P/E (benchmark) x 12.3 10.0 10.7 Change in net debt position CHFM -163 642 924 P/Book x 0.89 0.79 0.85 Per Share Data Dividend yield % 4.32 5.30 4.87 No of shares net of treas. stock Mio 30.6 31.0 30.1 Embedded Value Number of diluted shares (average) Mio 32.9 30.9 30.6 Life Embedded Value CHFM 11,900 12,100 11,950 benchmark EPS CHF 37.5 37.6 40.2 Non life Embedded Value CHFM 2,400 2,300 2,000 Restated NAV per share CHF Total Embedded value CHFM 14,300 14,400 13,950 Net dividend per share CHF 20.0 20.0 21.0 Analyst : Dieter Hein, Changes to Forecasts : 24/08/2020. This research publication was completed at 10:01 AM (CET) on 07-01-2021. In relation to the author of this research publication the General statements (Section A) contained in the disclaimer at the end of this document are supplemented as follows: The author of this publication is AlphaValue who, pursuant to a cooperation agreement with Baader Bank provides certain research & distribution services to the Baader Bank Group. AlphaValue does not have nor seek any business with companies covered in AlphaValue Research paid by subscription. As a result, investors can be confident that there is no conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of AlphaValue Research. © 2021, AlphaValue All rights reserved. This publication is strictly for subscriber’s own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product..
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