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REPORT UM-HSRI 79-86 CONTRACT DOT-TSC-1616 ECONOMIC STATISTICS AND INFORMATION CONCERNING THE JAPANESE AUTO INDUSTRY FINAL REPORT* Gary R. Saxonhouse Prepared for: U.S . Department of Transportation Transportation Sys tems Center Kendall Square Cambridge, Massachusetts 021 42 November 10, 1979 Highway Safety Research Institute University of Michigan 1. R-Mo. 2. Gowmmem Accessiu No. 3. Reci~imi'sCatalog No. 1 4. Title rJ Subtitle 5. a-1 Oat* Economic Statistics and Information November 10, 1979 Concerning the Japanese Auto Industry 6. Pufominq Orgrnxotia coda 7. A.W.) I Garv" R. Saxonhouse 9. Pwkmne Or&rdm MI. d Ad&.ss 10. Wok Umi No. (TRAIS) Highway Safety Research Institute I University of Michigan 1 I. Cennmct OI cleat NO. Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 DOT-TSC-1616 13. TIP. of RW d Pntod Cow.rd 12. *.win* A- NH ndM~s* U .S. Department of Transportation Final Report Trans ortation Systems Center ~endaylSquare 14. $omsurnq A~~~ we Cambridge, Massachusetts 021 42 IS. *l-tq Nons I This is the final report of a project that had four objectives: 1. Locate Statistics--Identify the Japanese agencies that receive stat- istical data on the automobile industry; determine the rules and laws governing public accessibility to the data; identify when, where, and how the data is publ ished; identify the private sources of business statistics and compare reports publ ished in Japanese with those available in English. 2. ~eterminekesearkh and ~evelo~mbntand Capital--Present statistics relatinq to research and development expenditures and capital investment b the ~apaneseautomobi 1e industry. 3. Identify Government Incentives--1denti fy and present detai 1s on tax advantages and incentives given to industry; identify research and devel or ment projects financed by ~apanesegovernment. 4. Survey Japanese Economic and Business Literature--Survey Japanese 1 it- erature to locate forecast of auto demand and predictions of capacity changes ; eval uate the re1iabi 1 i ty of the forecasts and the techniques utilized; interview Japanese economists and industrial consultants re1ative-to the forecasts. 17. Key Words 18. DistriLutim S~otrmt 1 Japanese Auto Industry International Competition Government Regul ation I research and Development nv~ctrn~ntIncentives 19. kuri* Clusit. (of his W) ID. hri* Chssir. (04 c(lis po& 21. Ma 04 Pmqos 22. Price I Unclassified I Unclassified 1 238 1 I PREFACE This document is the final report for a study entitled "Economic Statistics and Information Concerning the Japanese Auto Industry. " The study was conducted by The University of Michigan's Highway Safety Research Institute in association with The University's Department of Economics and the Center for Japanese Studies, and selected consul tants . The Transportation Systems Center of the U.S. Department of Transportation sponsored the study as part of its support of the automotive fuel economy program of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Since 1967 Japan has been the second largest producer of motor vehicles in the world. During the 15-year period from 1961 to 1976 inclusive, Japanese motor vehicle production increased 963 percent, a compounded annual growth rate of 16.3 percent. (By comparison, U.S. production during the same period increased 172 percent for an annual compounded growth rate of only 3.7 percent .) In 1978 Japan produced over 9 million vehicles, which was over 70 percent of U.S. production in the same year. In its motor vehicle exports Japan has advanced more rapidly than any other country in the world. It moved into sixth place in 1959; fifth place in 1963; fourth place in 1965; third place in 1968; second place in 1971 ; and first pl ace in 1974. It has held that posi - tion since, and is continuing to increase its relative share. In the United States, three Japanese firms are among the top four importers. And the Japanese products are generally considered as among the best designed and attractively priced vehicles available in the United States. Because of the increasing importance of the Japanese-produced vehicle in the United States, there has been a need to more careful 1y evaluate ".. .the impact of the U.S. fuel economy, safety, and emis- sions control regulations on the Japanese companies and to provide a data base for comparing the performance of the U.S. automobile indus- try with the Japanese automobile industry..."* There is generally available in the United States, and to U.S. government officials , information on the Japanese auto industry. How- ever, much additional information exists only in Japan and in the Japanese language. This is especially true of detai 1 ed statistical information on capital investment and research and development in the industry. Also, the American pol icymakers do not have the benefit of much information that is found in the Japanese trade press and other local sources within Japan. It is important that these policymakers be aware of the current sentiment within Japan towards that nation's automobile industry. Such information is important in the continuing evaluation of the U.S. government's pol icy decisions that impact Japan's auto industry. *RFP TSCl322-0014-GTF, Statement of Work. iii The penetration into the U.S. of the Japanese passenger automobile requires more re1iable and detailed information on Japan's automobile industry. Because of the unique peculiarities of theSJapanese language, and the shortage of persons within the United States having a working knowledge of Japanese, unusual steps had to be taken to collect the necessary information. This has been done by organizing a team of Japanese-speaking specialists with a background and understanding of the automobile industry. They have identified Japanese statistical data sources, collected the information, and presented it in usable form. This final report presents the results of this effort. This study was divided into four task objectives: Task 1--Locate Statistics. This task involved the identi- fication of Japanese agencies that receive statistical data on the automobile industry; a determination of the rules and laws governing pub1 ic accessibility of the data; the identi- fication of when, where, and how the data is published; the identification of private sources of business statistics; and a comparison of reports published in Japanese with those made available in English. Task 2--Determi nation of Research and Development and Capital Investment Procedures. First, known statistics relating to research and development expenditures by the ~apaneseauto industry were collected; the same detailed analysis was then made on capital investment by the Japanese auto industry. Task 3--Identification of Governmental Incentives. In this task, the assignment was to identify tax advantages and incentives given to industry and to identify research and development projects financed by government. Task 4--Survey Japanese Economic and Business Literature. This task involved a survey of Japanese 1i terature to locate forecasts of auto demand and predictions of capacity changes; there was then an evaluation of the forecasts for re1 iability and techniques utilized; and, final ly, there were interviews with Japanese economists and industrial consultants relative to the forecasts. In the accomplishment of the study objectives the project was divided into three separate phases: Phase I--1ni tial Literature Research. The 1i terature search involved an examination of the reference bibliography cards at The University of Michigan Japanese language 1ibrary. Significant data were extracted and filed for compilation into final reports. Phase I1 -- Field Investigation in Japan. This phase included contacting governmental agencies and private organizations in Japan for information pertinent to the study: Appendix A shows the organizations that were contacted. Phase I I I -- Documentation Development and Presentation. The final phase was the documentation devel opment and presentation. There were two major reports: the interim report, pub1 ished mid-way through the project, and the final report, which is this document. The interim report was completely incorporated into the final report. The project director for the study was Professor Howard M. Bunch, Associate Professor of Transportation Management and Research Project Manager, Highway Safety Research Institute. Professor Bunch had the overall responsi bil i ty for the study. The principal investiqator was Professor Gary R. Saxonhouse, Associate Professor of Economics. Professor Saxonhouse had the responsi bil i ty for the study's 1 iterature search and fie1d investigations. Richard IJoodworth , Susumu Sai to, Donna Vandenbrink, and Daniel Citrin have also made substantial constributions to the pre- paration of this report. And the support and valuable advice received from Mr. Bruce Weiers , Transportation Systems Center, Department of Transportat ion, is grateful lj acknowledged. CONTENTS PREFACE ..............................iii CONTENTS ...............................vi i LIST OF TABLES ............................ix 1 . INTRODUCTION TO JAPANESE GOVERNMENT STATISTICAL ORGANIaTION ...........................1-1 1.1 Coordinating Activities ...................1-1 1.2 Government Agencies Compiling Automobi le-Related Statistics .........................1-4 1.3 Statistical Work of Local Branch Offices of National Ministries, Prefectural Governments and City. Town. and Vi llage Governments ..........1-6 2 . LEGISLATION CONCERNING THE GOVERNMENT'S COLLECTION OFSTATISTICS ...........................2-1 2.1