Analysis of Psychological Momentum in Intercollegiate Tennis
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JOURNAL OF SPORT & EXERCISE PSYCHOLOGY, 1988, 10, 346-354 Analysis of Psychological Momentum in Intercollegiate Tennis John M. Silva 111, Charles J. Hardy, and R. Kelly Crace University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill I'll often be able to jump out to a quick start so that by the time my opponent pulls himself together I'm on a roll that's tough to stop. (Connors, 1986) The above quote from professional tennis player Jimmy Connors exempli- fies the subjective impact athletes often attribute to the role of psychological momentum (PM). Like Connors, many athletes, coaches, fans, and the media often attribute the outcome of sporting events to the power of psychological momentum. Similar to the home court advantage, slumps, and other ostentatious phenomena in sport, little is actually known about the nature of psychological momentum. Adler (1981) has defined psychological momentum as a bidirectional con- cept, affecting either the probability of winning or the probability of losing as a function of the outcome of the preceding event. Simply stated, psychological momentum according to Adler is the tendency of an effect to be followed by a similar effect. The operation of positive psychological momentum would predict that success increases the probability of subsequent success. Negative psycho- logical momentum would indicate the opposite operation, that is, failure increases the probability of subsequent failure. Positive and negative psychological momen- tum identify two obvious mechanisms that can generate momentum swings. Momentum in sport, however, can be more psychologically complex than like behavior following like behavior. Take for example a team that is well ahead early in a contest and goes flat, losing momenmn and the game, or a team that comes from behind against all odds, pulling the upset in the waning seconds of competition. Momentum, it appears, can be lost or gained from two alternate effects not identified in the previous literature: positive inhibition and negative facilita- tion. Positive inhibition labels the process whereby success may actually result in a loss of momentum and thus increase the probability of subsequent failure. Hammer (1971) has discussed a similar effect in the motivational literature and has identified the phenomena as the "fat cat" syndrome. Negative facilitation Requests for reprints should be sent to John M. Silva 111, Department of Physical Education, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27514. 346 Psychological Momentum in Tennis / 347 defines those situations whereby failure increases the probability of subsequent success. Gunther Bosch describes Boris Becker as a player who exemplifies nega- tive facilitation: "Boris finds a way to turn the negative into the positive. If he goes down by a game, it does not discourage him. It makes him more fiery" (' 'Preview, " 1986). In order for the operation of psychological momentum in sport to be adequately examined, all four possible outcomes should be evaluated. In addition to recognizing the four manifestations of PM, researchers examining momentum-like phenomena have suggested self-efficacy shifts (McMahon, 1973), shifts in expected probabilities of success or failure (Rotter, Liverant, & Crowne, 1961; Weiner, 1965), and attributional processes (Feather, 1969; Moulton, 1965; Ryckman, Gold, & Rodda, 1971; Valle & Frieze, 1976) as variables mediating performance and outcome. Research on Psychological Momentum in Sport One of the earlier studies conducted in the field of sport was published by Iso-Ahola and Mobily (1980), who analyzed the role of psychological momen- tum on performance in an open racquetball tournament involving three levels of player ability (A, B, and C). Psychological momentum was determined by a prob- ability formula that compared the number of wins in a game category with the number of wins based on chance expectancy for that game category. Results in- dicated positive PM operating since first game outcome predicted second game and match outcome. Psychological momentum did not predict match outcome in situations whereby opponents split games 1 and 2. Iso-Ahola and Mobily con- tended that a third game tie-breaker situation may be viewed by both athletes as a new starting point in the match (i.e., neither competitor has PM). The first game winner predicted the winner of the match better in the preliminary rounds than in the final rounds. The authors suggested that an inverse relationship may exist between the experience level of competitors and PM. A similar study examining the effects of positive and negative PM on championship collegiate tennis competition was conducted by Love and Knop- pers (1984). In an effort to better control for the mediating effect of skill differen- tials at the preliminary levels of play, the authors analyzed the results of the singles matches in the quarterf~nalsthrough finals at the NCAA Division I women's team tennis championships. Data were examined at three levels of play: point, game, and set. The results of this study indicated that PM was a significant factor in the quarterfinal round but did not operate at a significant level in the semifinal or final rounds. This finding supports the notion that greater homogeneity of skill is related to a dissipation in PM effects. Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) investigated the randomness in shot sequences for free throws and field goals among professional and collegiate basket- ball players. In addition to analyzing actual performance data, Gilovich et al. examined subjective perceptions of randomness in shooting expressed by players and fans. The authors were interested in testing the statistical legitimacy of the well known "hot hand" phenomenon in basketball. Statistical analysis indicated that the probability of a hot hand (positive momentum) did not exceed the frequency predicted by a binomial model that assumes a constant hit rate. That is, there was no dependency between previous field-goal and free-throw success and sub- sequent shooting success. Players' and fans' predictions of performance, however, .