Heads We Win -- the Cognitive Side of Counterinsurgency (COIN

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Heads We Win -- the Cognitive Side of Counterinsurgency (COIN THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CHILD POLICY service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION Jump down to document ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT 6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and effective PUBLIC SAFETY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. This product is part of the RAND Corporation occasional paper series. RAND occasional papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy issue, a discussion of new research methodologies, essays, a paper presented at a conference, a conference summary, or a summary of work in progress. All RAND occasional papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. RAND COUNTERINSURGENCY STUDY • PAPER 1 Heads We Win The Cognitive Side of Counterinsurgency (COIN) David C. Gompert Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 978-0-8330-4021-3 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This paper is one of the first outputs of the RAND Corporation’s research project for the U.S. Department of Defense on how to improve U.S. counterinsurgency (COIN) capabilities. It should be of interest to the U.S. government and other countries and organizations now rethinking COIN strategies and retooling COIN capabilities in view of developments since September 11, 2001, as well as to scholars trying to understand continuity and change in this field. The larger RAND project of which this is a part will yield a stream of interim products during its course. It will culminate in a final report that draws on that stream of work. Thus, this particular report can and should be read both as an output, in and of itself, and as a piece of a larger picture of COIN that is taking shape. The topic, cognitive capabilities for COIN, is one that has not been analyzed heavily. Indeed, a reason for this paper is that the topic has not received enough attention, given the emphasis on technology, territorial control, and organization that characterizes U.S. COIN strategy and analysis. Thus, the author’s purposes are to fuel debate and stimulate more research on an important yet neglected aspect of COIN. This analysis was sponsored by the Combating Terrorism Technology Task Force of the U.S. Department of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at James_Dobbins@rand. org; by phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures and Table ..............................................................................................vii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments .............................................................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction: Purpose, Scope, and Definitions........................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO The Mind as Central Front.................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER THREE Reordering COIN Priorities .................................................................................13 CHAPTER FOUR Thoughts of the Jihad .........................................................................................19 CHAPTER FIVE Closing the Gap ................................................................................................29 CHAPTER SIX Cognitive Requirements in Global COIN ................................................................35 CHAPTER SEVEN Cognitive Capabilities for COIN ...........................................................................41 Understanding Global Insurgency ............................................................................41 Global COIN-Shaping Strategy.............................................................................. 44 Global COIN Operations..................................................................................... 46 v vi Heads We Win: The Cognitive Side of Counterinsurgency (COIN) CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusions: Investment and Reform .....................................................................53 APPENDIX Investments and Measures to Enhance Cognitive COIN Capabilities ..............................57 Bibliography ....................................................................................................59 Figures and Table Figures 4.1. The Jihadist Personnel Model ....................................................................25 5.1. COIN Capabilities Profile ....................................................................... 30 6.1. COIN Requirements for Global Insurgency .................................................. 38 7.1. COIN Requirements for Global Insurgency ...................................................51 8.1. DoD Investment Priorities for Global COIN ..................................................55 Table A.1. Cognitive Capabilities and Required Measures and Investments............................57 vii Summary The Need to Reorder Priorities This paper documents an effort to specify requirements for strongercognition — comprehension, reasoning, and decisionmaking—in 21st-century counterinsurgency (COIN). Different from information technology (IT) (e.g., sensors, chat rooms, displays), cognition is what occurs “between the ears” after receiving information. It is as crucial to COIN as physi- cal capabilities, organizational structures, and territorial control, especially against shrewd, distributed insurgents. Greater attention to cognitive capabilities is dictated by the rise and persistence of a new class of insurgency that combines utopian aims, intense motivation, global connectiv- ity and mobility, extreme violence, and constant adaptation. The foremost example of this is the Islamist-Sunni-Salafist jihad, which aims to overthrow what its adherents see as a corrupt nation-state order in the Muslim world, devised by the West to dominate Islam. Like classical insurgency, the jihad vies for the support of a contested population—in this case, alienated Muslims in both Muslim-majority and Muslim-minority states. Jihad not only aids but also infects local insurgencies with anti-Western venom, religious extremism, and suicide terrorist leanings, making them more vicious and intractable.
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