Fiscal and Monetary Policy Working Together to Create an Economy That Behaves Reasonably Under All Conditions
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Monetary Policy in Economies with Little Or No Money
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MONETARY POLICY IN ECONOMIES WITH LITTLE OR NO MONEY Bennett T. McCallum Working Paper 9838 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9838 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2003 This paper was prepared for presentation at the December 16-17, 2002, meeting of the Hong Kong Economic Association. I am indebted to Marvin Goodfriend, Lok Sang Ho, Allan Meltzer, and Edward Nelson for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research ©2003 by Bennett T. McCallum. All rights reserved. Short sections of text not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit including © notice, is given to the source. Monetary Policy in Economies with Little or No Money Bennett T. McCallum NBER Working Paper No. 9838 July 2003 JEL No. E3, E4, E5 ABSTRACT The paper's arguments include: (1) Medium-of-exchange money will not disappear in the foreseeable future, although the quantity of base money may continue to decline. (2) In economies with very little money (e.g., no currency but bank settlement balances at the central bank), monetary policy will be conducted much as at present by activist adjustment of overnight interest rates. Operating procedures will be different, however, with payment of interest on reserves likely to become the norm. (3) In economies without any money there can be no monetary policy. The relevant notion of a general price level concerns some index of prices in terms of a medium of account. -
Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis∗
Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis∗ Pontus Rendahly University of Cambridge, CEPR, and Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) April 30, 2014 Abstract This paper shows that large fiscal multipliers arise naturally from equilibrium unemploy- ment dynamics. In response to a shock that brings the economy into a liquidity trap, an expansion in government spending increases output and causes a fall in the unemployment rate. Since movements in unemployment are persistent, the effects of current spending linger into the future, leading to an enduring rise in income. As an enduring rise in income boosts private demand, even a temporary increase in government spending sets in motion a virtuous employment-spending spiral with a large associated multiplier. This transmission mechanism contrasts with the conventional view in which fiscal policy may be efficacious only under a prolonged and committed rise in government spending, which engineers a spiral of increasing inflation. Keywords: Fiscal multiplier, liquidity trap, zero lower bound, unemployment inertia. ∗The first version of this paper can be found as Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 1211. yThe author would like to thank Andrea Caggese, Giancarlo Corsetti, Wouter den Haan, Jean-Paul L'Huillier, Giammario Impulitti, Karel Mertens, Emi Nakamura, Kristoffer Nimark, Evi Pappa, Franck Portier, Morten Ravn, Jon Steinsson, Silvana Tenreyro, and Mirko Wiederholt for helpful comments and suggestions. I am grateful to seminar participants at LSE, Royal Economic Society, UCL, European Univer- sity Institute, EIEF, ESSIM 2012, SED 2013, Bonn University, Goethe University, UAB, and in particular to James Costain, and Jonathan Heathcote for helpful discussions and conversations. Financial support is gratefully acknowledge from the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) and the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET). -
The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Insights from Two Business Cycles in Israel
The interaction between monetary and fiscal policy: insights from two business cycles in Israel Kobi Braude and Karnit Flug1 Abstract Comparing the two significant recessions Israel experienced over the last decade, we highlight the importance of sustained fiscal discipline and credible monetary policy during normal times for expanding the set of policy options available at a time of need. In the first recession Israel was forced to conduct a contractionary fiscal and monetary policy, whereas in the second one it was able to pursue an expansionary policy. The difference in the effect of the policy response between the two recessions is sizable: it exacerbated the first recession while it helped to moderate the second one. Keywords: Fiscal policy, fiscal discipline, public debt, monetary policy, counter-cyclical policy, business cycles JEL classification: E52, E62, H6 1 Bank of Israel. We thank Stanley Fischer and Alon Binyamini for helpful comments and Noa Heymann for her research assistance. BIS Papers No 67 205 Introduction Over the last decade Israel experienced two significant business cycles. The monetary and fiscal policy response to the recession at the end of the decade was very different from the response to recession of the early 2000s. In the earlier episode, following a steep rise in the budget deficit and a single 2 percentage point interest rate reduction, policy makers were forced to make a sharp reversal and conduct a contractionary policy in the midst of the recession. In the second episode, monetary and fiscal expansion was pursued until recovery was well under way. This note examines the factors behind the difference in the policy response to the two recession episodes. -
An Assessment of Modern Monetary Theory
An assessment of modern monetary theory M. Kasongo Kashama * Introduction Modern monetary theory (MMT) is a so-called heterodox economic school of thought which argues that elected governments should raise funds by issuing money to the maximum extent to implement the policies they deem necessary. While the foundations of MMT were laid in the early 1990s (Mosler, 1993), its tenets have been increasingly echoed in the public arena in recent years. The surge in interest was first reflected by high-profile British and American progressive policy-makers, for whom MMT has provided a rationale for their calls for Green New Deals and other large public spending programmes. In doing so, they have been backed up by new research work and publications from non-mainstream economists in the wake of Mosler’s work (see, for example, Tymoigne et al. (2013), Kelton (2017) or Mitchell et al. (2019)). As the COVID-19 crisis has been hitting the global economy since early this year, the most straightforward application of MMT’s macroeconomic policy agenda – that is, money- financed fiscal expansion or helicopter money – has returned to the forefront on a wider scale. Some consider not only that it is “time for helicopters” (Jourdan, 2020) but also that this global crisis must become a trigger to build on MMT precepts, not least in the euro area context (Bofinger, 2020). The MMT resurgence has been accompanied by lively political discussions and a heated economic debate, bringing fierce criticism from top economists including P. Krugman, G. Mankiw, K. Rogoff or L. Summers. This short article aims at clarifying what is at stake from a macroeconomic stabilisation perspective when considering MMT implementation in advanced economies, paying particular attention to the euro area. -
Monetary Policy and the Long Boom
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER1998 John B. Taylor is a professor of economics at Stanford University. The article that follows is a reprint of The Homer Jones Lecture delivered at Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville on April 16, 1998. Kent Koch provided research assistance. this lecture. This month (April 1998) the Monetary Policy United States economy celebrates seven years of economic expansion. By definition and The Long an economic expansion is the period between recessions; that is, a period of con- Boom tinued growth without a recession. The last recession in the United States ended in April 1991, so as of this April we have had seven John B. Taylor years of expansion and we are still going. This current expansion is a record breaker: regret that I never had the opportunity to to be exact it is the second longest peacetime work or study with Homer Jones. But I expansion in American history. Iknow people who worked and studied with But what is more unusual is that this him, and I have enjoyed talking with them and current expansion was preceded by the reading about their recollections of Homer first longest peacetime expansion in Amer- Jones. What is most striking to me, of all that ican history. That expansion began in has been said and written about Homer Jones, November 1982 and continued through is his incessant striving to learn more about August 1990. It lasted seven years and economics and his use of rigorous economic eight months. Although the 1980s expansion research to improve the practical operation of was the first longest peacetime expansion in economic policy. -
A Primer on Modern Monetary Theory
2021 A Primer on Modern Monetary Theory Steven Globerman fraserinstitute.org Contents Executive Summary / i 1. Introducing Modern Monetary Theory / 1 2. Implementing MMT / 4 3. Has Canada Adopted MMT? / 10 4. Proposed Economic and Social Justifications for MMT / 17 5. MMT and Inflation / 23 Concluding Comments / 27 References / 29 About the author / 33 Acknowledgments / 33 Publishing information / 34 Supporting the Fraser Institute / 35 Purpose, funding, and independence / 35 About the Fraser Institute / 36 Editorial Advisory Board / 37 fraserinstitute.org fraserinstitute.org Executive Summary Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a policy model for funding govern- ment spending. While MMT is not new, it has recently received wide- spread attention, particularly as government spending has increased dramatically in response to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and concerns grow about how to pay for this increased spending. The essential message of MMT is that there is no financial constraint on government spending as long as a country is a sovereign issuer of cur- rency and does not tie the value of its currency to another currency. Both Canada and the US are examples of countries that are sovereign issuers of currency. In principle, being a sovereign issuer of currency endows the government with the ability to borrow money from the country’s cen- tral bank. The central bank can effectively credit the government’s bank account at the central bank for an unlimited amount of money without either charging the government interest or, indeed, demanding repayment of the government bonds the central bank has acquired. In 2020, the cen- tral banks in both Canada and the US bought a disproportionately large share of government bonds compared to previous years, which has led some observers to argue that the governments of Canada and the United States are practicing MMT. -
The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics Under Model Uncertainty Evidence from the Us and the Euro Area 1
WORKWORKINGING PAPAPER SSERIEERIESS NO 1089 / SEPTEMBER 2009 THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY ON UNEMPLOYM ENT DYNAMICS UNDER MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVIDENCE FROM THE US AND THE EURO AREA by Carlo Altavilla and Matteo Ciccarelli WORKING PAPER SERIES NO 1089 / SEPTEMBER 2009 THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY ON UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS UNDER MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVIDENCE FROM THE US AND THE EURO AREA 1 by Carlo Altavilla 2 and Matteo Ciccarelli 3 In 2009 all ECB publications This paper can be downloaded without charge from feature a motif http://www.ecb.europa.eu or from the Social Science Research Network taken from the €200 banknote. electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1467788. 1 We are particularly grateful to Ken West and two anonymous referees for extensive comments which substantially improved content and exposition of the paper. We would also like to thank Efrem Castelnuovo, Mark Giannoni, Gert Peersman, Frank Smets, and the participants at the CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money, and International Finance, Munich; the 3rd Piero Moncasca Workshop, Rome; and the Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics, Ancona, for comments and suggestions. Part of the paper was written while the first author was visiting Columbia Business School, whose hospitality is gratefully acknowledged. This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank, or ECB policy. Remaining errors are our own responsibilities. 2 University of Naples “Parthenope”, Via Medina, 40 - 80133 Naples, Italy; e-mail: [email protected]; Phone: (+)39 0815474733, fax (+)39 0815474750 3 European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: [email protected]; Phone: (+)49 6913448721, fax (+)49 6913446575 © European Central Bank, 2009 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Website http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 All rights reserved. -
Monetary Regimes, Money Supply, and the US Business Cycle Since 1959 Implications for Monetary Policy Today
Monetary Regimes, Money Supply, and the US Business Cycle since 1959 Implications for Monetary Policy Today Hylton Hollander and Lars Christensen MERCATUS WORKING PAPER All studies in the Mercatus Working Paper series have followed a rigorous process of academic evaluation, including (except where otherwise noted) at least one double-blind peer review. Working Papers present an author’s provisional findings, which, upon further consideration and revision, are likely to be republished in an academic journal. The opinions expressed in Mercatus Working Papers are the authors’ and do not represent official positions of the Mercatus Center or George Mason University. Hylton Hollander and Lars Christensen. “Monetary Regimes, Money Supply, and the US Business Cycle since 1959: Implications for Monetary Policy Today.” Mercatus Working Paper, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, Arlington, VA, December 2018. Abstract The monetary authority’s choice of operating procedure has significant implications for the role of monetary aggregates and interest rate policy on the business cycle. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the type of endogenous monetary regime, together with the interaction between money supply and demand, captures well the actual behavior of a monetary economy—the United States. The results suggest that the evolution toward a stricter interest rate–targeting regime renders central bank balance-sheet expansions ineffective. In the context of the 2007–2009 Great Recession, a more flexible interest rate–targeting -
Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Policy Perspective Björn Lagerwall the Author Works in the Riksbank’S Monetary Policy Department1
NO 5 2019 Economic 27 May Commentaries Fiscal policy in a monetary policy perspective Björn Lagerwall The author works in the Riksbank’s Monetary Policy Department1 In Sweden and many other countries, the framework for stabilisation policy prior to the global financial crisis was aimed at monetary policy playing the lead role and fiscal policy playing a more passive role. But in the wake of the global financial crisis, this view has at least partly been reassessed – towards greater focus on fiscal policy. What are in fact the arguments for this reassessment? We will look Prior to the global financial crisis, more closely at some of them in this Economic Commentary, based on recent the framework for stabilisation research and discussion both internationally and in Sweden. policy, in both Sweden and many One argument has to do with low global interest rates having reduced the other countries, gave monetary scope of monetary policy to, where necessary, provide further stimulus to the policy the lead role. Afterwards, this view has been partly economy. But the low interest rates can also increase the scope of fiscal policy to reassessed – towards a greater stimulate the economy without jeopardising the sustainability of public finances. focus on fiscal policy. Based on Another argument is that many empirical studies have shown that the effects on recent research and discussion, two main reasons for why this household consumption of temporary fiscal policy stimuli may be significantly view has changed can be greater than previously thought. identified, both of which are This Economic Commentary also discusses the interaction between fiscal and discussed in this Economic . -
Fiscal Policy and Inflation Volatility
WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 317 / MARCH 2004 FISCAL POLICY AND INFLATION VOLATILITY by Philipp C. Rother WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 317 / MARCH 2004 FISCAL POLICY AND INFLATION VOLATILITY1 by Philipp C. Rother 2 In 2004 all publications will carry This paper can be downloaded without charge from a motif taken http://www.ecb.int or from the Social Science Research Network from the €100 banknote. electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=515081. 1 I thank Silvia Ardagna, Jürgen von Hagen, colleagues at the ECB and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Central Bank. 2 European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main. Fax: +496913446000. Tel: +491613446398. Email: [email protected] . © European Central Bank, 2004 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non- commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The statement of purpose for the ECB Working Paper Series is available from the ECB website, http://www.ecb.int. ISSN 1561-0810 (print) ISSN 1725-2806 (online) CONTENTS Abstract 4 Non-technical summary 5 1. Introduction 7 2. Literature 8 2.1. Growth effects of inflation volatility 8 2.2. -
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in a New Keynesian Model with Capital Accumulation and Non-Ricardian Consumers
WORKING PAPER SERIES NO 649 / JUNE 2006 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY INTERACTIONS IN A NEW KEYNESIAN MODEL WITH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND NON-RICARDIAN CONSUMERS ISSN 1561081-0 by Campbell Leith 9 771561 081005 and Leopold von Thadden WORKING PAPER SERIES NO 649 / JUNE 2006 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY INTERACTIONS IN A NEW KEYNESIAN MODEL WITH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND NON-RICARDIAN CONSUMERS 1 by Campbell Leith 2 and Leopold von Thadden 3 In 2006 all ECB publications will feature This paper can be downloaded without charge from a motif taken http://www.ecb.int or from the Social Science Research Network from the €5 banknote. electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=908620 1 Comments on an early version of this paper by Martin Ellison, George von Fuerstenberg, Heinz Herrmann, Leo Kaas, Jana Kremer, Eric Leeper, Massimo Rostagno, Andreas Schabert, Harald Uhlig as well as seminar participants at the European Central Bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the University of Konstanz, the CEPR-conference on “The implications of alternative fiscal rules for monetary policy” (Helsinki, 2004), and at the annual meetings of the Econometric Society (Madrid, 2004), the German Economic Association (Dresden, 2004), and the Royal Economic Society (Nottingham, 2005) are gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Central Bank. 2 Department of Economics, Adam Smith Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8RT, United Kingdom; e-mail: [email protected] 3 European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: [email protected] © European Central Bank, 2006 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. -
Central Bank Independence and Fiscal Policy: Incentives to Spend and Constraints on the Executive
Central Bank Independence and Fiscal Policy: Incentives to Spend and Constraints on the Executive Cristina Bodea Michigan State University Masaaki Higashijima Michigan State University Accepted at the British Journal of Political Science Word count: 12146 Abstract Independent central banks prefer balanced budgets due to the long-run connection between deficits and inflation and can enforce their preference through interest rate increases and denial of credit to the government. We argue that legal central bank independence (CBI) deters fiscal deficits predominantly in countries with rule of law and impartial contract enforcement, a free press and constraints on executive power. More, we suggest that CBI may not affect fiscal deficits in a counter-cyclical fashion, but, rather, depending on the electoral calendar and government partisanship. We test our hypotheses with new yearly data on legal CBI for 78 countries from 1970 to 2007. Results show that CBI restrains deficits only in democracies, during non-election years and under left government tenures. 1 1. Introduction In the 1990s countries worldwide started to reform their central bank laws, removing monetary policy from the hands of the government. This means that the newly independent central banks can change interest rates, target the exchange rate or the money supply to ensure price stability or low inflation1, without regard to incumbent approval ratings or re-election prospects. Because central bank independence (CBI) has been designed as an institutional mechanism for keeping a check on inflation, most analyses focus on the effect of such independence on inflation and its potential trade-off with economic growth (Grilli 1991, Cukierman et al.