Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

Project Number: 46496-001 December 2016

Republic of the Union of Myanmar: Transformation of Urban Management - Flood Management Component (Financed by the Japanese Fund for Poverty Reduction)

FINAL REPORT PART 3 (Part 3 of 7)

Prepared by International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) (Tsukuba, Japan) CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. (Tokyo, Japan) CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. (Tokyo, Japan) PASCO CORPORATION (Tokyo, Japan)

For: Ministry of Construction and Ministry of Transport and Communications, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, under the Ministry of Transport and Communications.

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design). Chapter 5 TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management – Part II Flood Management

CHAPTER 5 FLOOD AND STORM SURGE RISK ASSESSMENT

5.1 Basics of Risk Assessment 5.1.1 General Description Flood and storm surge risk assessment comprises two components, which means that firstly hazard is assessed to identify characteristics of target hazard and then disaster risk is assessed as a consequence of identified hazard. Both are necessary to prepare the measures to reduce disaster risk. Flood hazard assessment simulates a possible flood hazard, taking account of prospective changes that may affect the intensity of the hazard, which are, for example, land use change by future socio-economic activities or structural human interventions in rivers. Future meteorological changes are also considered when the effect of climate change is incorporated in the assessment. Hazard assessment estimates the location, intensity, frequency and probability of a hazard (see “terminology” below). The elements of a flood hazard are as follows: (Intensity of flood hazard)  Inundation depth and area  Duration  Velocity Flood hazard assessment is conducted by applying a hydrological/hydraulic simulation model using hydro-meteorological data, topographic data, land-use data and operation rules of river management structures. For the formulation of a simulation model, data on past floods (time-series changes in inundation area and depth or at least their maximum values) are required to calibrate the model. One of the useful products of flood hazard assessment is flood hazard maps, which show the maximum inundation area and depth caused by a flood of a target scale. Flood hazard maps provide information on areas at risk, which is essential in land use management and evacuation planning. The target scale is decided based on the socio-economic conditions of the target area and consensus among stakeholders. In practice, the scale of the recorded largest flood in the past (record-high flood) or the flood scale of 50- or 100-year return period (see section 5.2.1) estimated by statistical analysis is often adopted as the target scale. While inundation depth and duration are commonly presented in the maps, the velocity of the inundation water in the flood plain is rarely estimated because it requires a detailed simulation model. Flood disaster risk assessment starts with the identification of the target area and items exposed to a flood hazard using the result of flood hazard simulation, and moves on to the evaluation of damage that might occur to exposed items resulting from the vulnerability of each item. By conducting flood disaster risk assessment, the effectiveness of countermeasures to reduce the flood hazard can be quantified by comparing simulated damage before and after the implementation of countermeasures, which is essential in cost-benefit analysis for preventive investment.

(Terminology) “Risk”, “Disaster Risk” and “Risk Assessment” are defined by UNISDR1 as follows, Risk: The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences. Disaster Risk: The potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time period.

1 United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), 2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, 2009.

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Risk Assessment: A methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that together could potentially harm exposed people, property, services, livelihoods and the environment on which they depend.(Comment: Risk assessments (and associated risk mapping) include: a review of the technical characteristics of hazards such as their location, intensity, frequency and probability; the analysis of exposure and vulnerability including the physical social, health, economic and environmental dimensions; and the evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative coping capacities in respect to likely risk scenarios. This series of activities is sometimes known as a risk analysis process.)

Disaster risk is expressed as a function of three components, which are hazard, exposure and vulnerability (see Figure 5.1.1). Disaster risk = f (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) Disaster risk can be decreased by applying countermeasures to each component. For example, hazard can be decreased by structural measures such as dams, exposure can be reduced by river improvement works, land use management, and timely evacuation (early warning), and vulnerability can be reduced by improving building codes, building safe shelters and increasing stockpiles. Figure 5.1.1 Structure of Disaster Risk2

UNISDR3 defines “hazard”, “vulnerability”, and “Exposure” as follows: Hazard: A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Exposure: People, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Vulnerability: The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.

5.1.2 Preparation of Risk Assessment Flood disaster risk can be estimated quantitatively based on the analysis of Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability. (1) Hazard Identification of affected areas and the intensity of a hazard by hazard assessment is the first step for disaster risk assessment. Information on past flood hazards, such as rainfall, river water level, discharge volume, and inundation area and depth, is required to develop and calibrate a simulation model. For the simulation of the target flood, statistical analysis is conducted to identify the magnitude of a hazard of the target scale. Basically rainfall data should be used for statistical analysis as primary information of the target natural hazard. Discharge volume is also applicable to

2 World Meteorological Organization, Social Aspects and Stakeholder Involvement in Integrated Flood Management, 2006. 3 United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), 2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, 2009.

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statistical analysis if no overflows from the river occur upstream of the measurement point and the land use of the catchment area has not changed. The water level of the river is not appropriate for statistical analysis if the river cross section at the observation point of water level has changed over years, which often occurs in an alluvial flood plain. After the identification of the target value of rainfall and water discharge, hazard conditions (flood inundation area and depth) can be identified by a hydrological/hydraulic simulation model, and the results can be shown in a form of hazard map. Figure 5.1.2 is a flood hazard map of the Tone River of Japan.

This map shows inundation area and depth

Figure 5.1.2 Flood Hazard Map of the Tone River, Japan

(2) Exposure After hazard areas are confirmed by a hydrological/hydraulic simulation, items possibly affected by the flood, such as population and property, are identified. For evaluation of future flood hazard, future socio-economic changes should also be taken into consideration based on urban development plans, etc. Basic items for the assessment of exposure are as follows:  Population  Houses and buildings  Factories  Agricultural fields (kind of crops)  Livestock facilities  Public infrastructure: roads, railroads, water-treatment plants, sewage-treatment plants, electric power plants, etc.  Public buildings: schools, hospitals, government offices, public halls  Religious places and structures  Other important facilities

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(3) Vulnerability After the identification of exposed items, possible damage to each item will be calculated using risk indicators. Risk indicators represent the vulnerability of each item by showing the correlation of the intensity of a hazard with damage quantified by a damage curve as shown in Figure 5.1.3. The figure shows that damage occurs when the inundation depth exceeds the floor level of the house building. Damage increases when inundation depth increases. It is desirable that a risk indicator be developed for each exposed item.

: Example of damage curve

2nd Floor

st

Inundation Inundation (m) depth 1 Floor Floor level Ground 0 Damage rate 1

Damage = Exposed item (people, housing, etc.) × damage rate Figure 5.1.3 Estimation of Flood Damage

Occurrence of Flood Disaster

National Government Local Government, etc. (MLIT) (Prefecture, Municipality, etc.) Damage Survey Municipalities Public Service (Provide format of Municipalities Prefectures Offices damage survey) General Public asset damages Public Public (Household, infrastructure service infrastructure agriculture, etc.) damages damages damages Submit Submit Submit Prefectures o Calculate the damage (within 45 days) in monetary value Aggregate and submit the survey data

o Compile and publish Flood Damage Manual for Economic Statistics (every year) MLIT: Ministry of Land, o Accumulate the data Evaluation of Flood Infrastructure, Transport in the DB server Management (MLIT) and Tourism, Japan

Figure 5.1.4 Process of Damage Data Collection in Japan (Source: MLIT)

Flood damage curves are developed based on data and information on past hazards and resulting actual flood damage. Therefore, data accumulation of hazards (inundation records) and flood damage is essential. Figure 5.1.4 shows the mechanism of damage data collection in Japan. In the case of Japan, all municipalities, prefectural sections in charge, and public service offices are required to submit flood damage data to designated sections in prefectures within 45 days after a flood disaster, and then

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the prefectures arrange and submit the data to the national government for compiling and accumulating the data. Based on the collected damage data, the “Manual for Economic Evaluation of Flood Management” is prepared to guide the assessment of damage for several items. Tables 5.1.1, 5.1.2 and 5.1.3 are examples showing flood damage ratios used in Japan for the assessment of flood damage to house buildings, household goods and agriculture, respectively.

Table 5.1.1 Flood Damage Ratio for House Building in the Case of Japan4 Inundation Sedimentation Above floor level depth Under (above floor level) floor level 50- 100- 200- -49cm 300cm- < 50cm ≥ 50cm 99cm 199cm 299cm

Gradient* Damage Ratio = Value of Damage/ Value of House (%) Less than 3.2 9.2 19.9 26.6 58.0 83.4 1/1000

1/1000- 4.4 12.6 17.6 34.3 64.7 87.0 43.0 78.5 1/500

More than 5.0 14.4 20.5 38.2 68.1 88.8 1/500

* Damage ratio is different according to the gradient of the ground because of the difference of hydraulic force.

Table 5.1.2 Flood Damage Ratio for Household Goods in the Case of Japan4 Sedimentation Above floor level Under (above floor level) Inundation floor depth 50- 100- 200- level -49cm 300cm- < 50cm 50cm 99cm 199cm 299cm ≥

Damage 2.1 14.5 32.6 50.8 92.8 99.1 50.0 84.5 ratio (%)

Damage ratio = Value of Damage/Total value of Household goods

Table 5.1.3 Flood Damage Ratio for Agriculture (rice crop) in the Case of Japan4 [In case of Inundation Sedimentation Rice]

Inundation -49cm 50-99cm 100cm- depth (cm) < 0.5- ≥ Inundation 1-2 3-4 5-6 7- 1-2 3-4 5-6 7- 1-2 3-4 5-6 7- 0.5m 0.99m 1.0m duration (days)

Damage 21 30 36 50 24 44 50 71 37 54 64 74 70 100 100 ratio (%)

Damage ratio = Value of Damage/Value of Agricultural Production

Risk indicators may differ from place to place according to the characteristics of each exposed item such as structure of houses and type of agricultural product. Therefore, risk indicators should be developed at each place by using local data. But if past data are not available, risk indicators of other places can be applied considering similarities and differences among target items.

4 Manual for Economic Evaluation of Flood Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Japan

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5.2 Hazard Assessment In TA-8456, the RRI Model developed by ICHARM was employed for flood inundation analysis at the three target cities of Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine. Inundation areas, depth and duration are calculated by the RRI Model. The details of the RRI Model are described in Chapter 4.

5.2.1 Identification of the Target Scale of Flood Hazard (Adoption of the Return Period to Identify the Target Scale) Flood hazard assessment aims to specify a potentially affected area and quantify the intensity of a hazard with its duration. Firstly, the target hazard is identified to collect information and data for assessment. The result of flood hazard assessment would be shown in a form of flood hazard map. In Japan, flood hazard maps show possible inundation conditions due to a rainfall event that is applied to flood management planning. In the production of flood hazard maps, a probability approach is employed, in which the concept of return period is applied to determine the target scale of rainfall. For example, the target scale of a 100-year return period means that the probability of occurrence is once in 100 years. A flood of a 100-year return period is called a 100-year flood. Note that a flood of a 100-year return period does not mean that a hazard will occur 100 years later, but it means that there is a 1 in 100 chance that even a flood next year will equal or exceed the 1-percent exceedance probability flood5. The intensity of a 100-year flood is calculated using a statistical method (Annex-7). The target scale differs by river according to socio-economic activities, expected flood damage, and the history of disasters in its basin. Basically, the target scale of a 100- to 200-year flood is applied to the rivers passing through important cities, which are managed by the national government in Japan, while that of a 30- to 100-year flood is applied to other rivers that are managed by prefectures or municipalities. In the past, the biggest flood in the recorded history was used to determine the target scale for flood management. However, this approach did not concern whether such a flood was an appropriate standard to decide the target scale for the protection of cities in the river basin. As a result, when the target scale was determined in this way, the balance of the safety level was disturbed among river sections of the same importance. On the other hand, since the target scale expressed with a return period can also show the safety level of a river explicitly, the use of a return period for the target scale is very useful to provide a clear vision for the formulation of an effective national development strategy and thereby for the promotion of well-balanced socio-economic development throughout the country.

(Identification of the Target Scale) As is mentioned above, the target scale should be decided in consideration of socio-economic activities in the river basin. The magnitude of damage due to the target flood is an important issue in identifying the target scale for flood management, which can be simulated in the process of risk assessment (see section 5.3). One important factor in the decision of the target scale is the cost of flood management in terms of structural measures (e.g., dykes, diversion channels, dams) to improve the safety level of a river basin. This cost should be compared with the benefit gained from the improvement of the safety level. The future prospect of development in the area should be included as benefit. The practicability of investment for flood management should also be considered in national strategies and budget planning. Therefore, the target scale cannot be decided just through the engineering process, though it is of course important to make evidence-based decisions. Equally important is to form the consensus for such investment among all stakeholders including national and local governments and residential people. While the target scale is important for flood hazard mapping and adoption of structural measures to protect land and other properties, there is a possibility that the intensity of a flood hazard may exceed the target scale. In such a case, at least

5 USGS “100-Year Flood-It’s All About Chance” (https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/106/pdf/100-year-flood_041210web.pdf)

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human lives should be saved through safe evacuation. Therefore, flood management should also consider such possibilities and prepare measures for a flood hazard beyond the target scale.

(1) Flood Hazard Assessment In this TA, two target flood scales, those of 100-year flood and the record-high flood, were employed for flood risk assessment through the discussion with DMH and implementation network members. DMH had already prepared a flood hazard map of a 100-year flood in the Mandalay area by using HEC-RAS. Table 5.2.1 shows the target flood scales for flood risk assessment in this TA. Data used in statistical analysis are shown in the column of “Probability”. In Yangon city area, torrential rainfall is the main cause of inland water flooding because of the lack of efficient drainage capacity in the city. Therefore an hourly rainfall intensity formula at Kaba-Aye station was applied to the assessment of a 100-year flood in Yangon (see section 4.2.8). The scale of the record high flood in Yangon city area was assessed using 2-week total rainfall because the flood traveling time from the upper basin to Yangon city area is estimated to be 2 weeks. In the case of the flood in 2007, however, one-day rainfall was extremely large, which might have caused severe temporal inundation. Therefore statistical analysis was also conducted to estimate the probability of one-day rainfall (see Annex 7).

Table 5.2.1 Proposed Target Flood Scales for Risk Assessment in the TA Proposed Target Scale No. Target Area 1. Probability 2. Record-high flood Flood of 2007 1/100 Scale: 1 Yangon (Hourly rainfall intensity formula at approx. 1/70 (2-week total rainfall) Kaba-Aye) approx. 1/600 (One day rainfall) 1/100 Flood of 2004 2 Mandalay (Maximum discharge at Thabeikkyin Scale: approx. 1/30 Station) 1/100 Flood of 2013 3 Mawlamyine (3-day rainfall of average watershed Scale: approx. 1/4 rainfall in target area)

(2) Storm Surge Assessment In the case of Japanese coastal protection plans, 1) record-high tidal level or 2) a high tide level of 50-year return period is employed to design the height of coastal dykes. In this TA, statistical analysis on tidal level was not performed because the consultant team was not able to obtain historical observed tide data from Myanmar authorities. However, since the storm surge caused by Cyclone Nargis (2008) was thought to be the highest in recent years, the magnitude of storm surge equivalent to that of the Cyclone Nargis case was employed in preparation for a coastal flood hazard map in Yangon. Regarding Mawlamyine, the DMH meteorological division mentioned at the meeting held in January 2016 that no cyclones had landed on Mon State in the past 100 years. Therefore, it was decided that a virtual cyclone track should be set for the coastal flood hazard map for Mawlamyine through discussions with the DMH meteorological division. Table 5.2.2 shows the target scale of storm surge in this TA.

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Table 5.2.2 Proposed Target Scales of Storm Surge for Risk Assessment in the TA Proposed Target Scale No. Target Area 1. Probability 2. Largest recorded cyclone 1 Yangon N/A Cyclone Nargis (2008) Virtual cyclone;  Track: First, the route of a virtual cyclone was set to be the same route of Cyclone Nargis in 2008, and then it was slightly shifted to south for the virtual cyclone to make a direct hit on the city of Mawlamyine (see Figure 5.2.1). 2 Mawlamyine N/A  Central air pressure: 980 hPa constant  Radius of cyclone (r0): 50km.

The specifications of the virtual cyclone were the result from discussions with the Meteorological Division in January 2016, and approved by DMH in April 2016

Virtual cyclone track set to cause the maximum storm surge in the Mawlamyine area Best track of Nargis 2008

Figure 5.2.1 Virtual Cyclone Track for Storm Surge Analysis of Mawlamyine

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After setting up the target storm surge, the flood scale of the river was decided to simulate the coastal flood hazard. The estimated tide levels based on the effect of storm surges were given as the lower boundary condition along the coastal line set for the RRI Model, and linked with the inflow from the upper river basin. In Japan, it is thought that the possibilities of simultaneous occurrence of the target flood and highest tidal level is very low based on historical experience. In Myanmar, however, it was difficult to judge whether the possibilities of simultaneous occurrence of peak flood and storm surge is low because of the unavailability of historical observation data. Therefore, a combination of the flood scale and storm surge as shown in Table 5.2.3 was considered in preparation for coastal flood hazard maps through the discussion with DMH. This combination is the worst scenario imaginable at this moment, which is worth preparing to collect and provide information on what would happen if such a case really occurs.

Table 5.2.3 Proposed Combination of Flood Scale and Storm Surge Combination of Flood Scale and Storm Surge No. Target Area Flood Scale Storm Surge 1 Yangon 1/100 Cyclone Nargis (2008) 2 Mawlamyine 1/100 Virtual cyclone based on Cyclone Nargis

5.2.2 Flood Hazard Mapping A flood hazard map is a visual representation of a community’s flood risk, and can be used as an effective non-structural measure for disaster risk reduction to save residents’ lives. A flood hazard map that contains evacuation information can also be called “flood evacuation map”. In general, a flood hazard map provides information on 1) maximum inundation depths and 2) inundation areas, both of which are estimated by a flood hazard simulation. It also provides easy-to-understand information on evacuation such as locations of evacuation centers, evacuation routes, etc. Flood hazard simulation is conducted by organizations that have expertise in developing simulation models, which are national or state/regional governments while local governments assist in collecting data and validating the results of simulation. Flood hazard maps are prepared using the results of flood hazard simulation as basic information and then incorporate necessary and useful information for flood management, which should be examined by local governments. If the purpose is to create a flood hazard map that only shows past inundation records, a local government can produce it in cooperation with local communities.

(1) Objectives of Flood Hazard Mapping The main objectives of flood hazard mapping are as follows:  To provide information for residents to evacuate in a safe and proper manner in the event of floods.  To provide information for land use management to avoid development activities in areas at flood risk or reduce flood risk before development activities. Flood hazard maps are important for local residents living in flood-prone areas to become more aware of flood risk of their communities to prepare for flood disasters and make appropriate decisions on emergency actions during floods. Flood hazard maps also assist local governments in developing strategies such as securing evacuation places and avoiding development activities in hazardous areas.

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(2) Steps of Flood Hazard Map Preparation Flood hazard mapping can be divided into six steps with three phases of 1) preparation, 2) production, and 3) utilization (Figure 5.2.2).

Step 1: Identification of Basic Issues and Conditions • Identify basic issues and conditions, such as past floods, extent of areas to be mapped, scale and size of base maps. • Also identify stakeholders. Step 2: Data Collection and Arrangement • Collect and arrange data and information required for production of a flood hazard map. • Data to be collected includes, but not limited to, base maps, hydrological data, inundation conditions, evacuation routes, early warning systems, disaster prevention activities, and other relevant information.

PREPARATION Step 3: Flood Hazard Simulation • Develop a simulation model. • Identify the target scale of flood hazard for flood hazard mapping. • Simulate inundation depth and area using an inundation analysis model such as the RRI model.

Step 4: Formulation of Draft Flood Hazard Map

• Formulate a draft flood hazard map by reflecting the collected information and simulation results.

Step 5: Confirmation and Validation

• Confirm and validate the flood hazard map through community

PRODUCTION participation processes such as workshops and evacuation drills.

Step 6: Dissemination and Utilization

• Distribute the flood hazard map using various media such as printed maps, billboards, websites and mobile applications. • Utilize the flood hazard map to enhance the effectiveness of disaster risk management activities and to improve the resilience of

UTILIZATION communities to floods.

Figure 5.2.2 Steps of Flood Hazard Mapping with Three Phases

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Step 1: Identification of Basic Issues and Conditions The first step of flood hazard mapping is to identify basic issues and conditions. The following three basic conditions should be confirmed:  Target flood  Extent of the area to be mapped  Scale and size of the base map

Thorough discussions among all stakeholders are also essential to develop a clear understanding of flood risk and ways and means to utilize the flood hazard map. Figure 5.2.3 shows the basic conditions to be confirmed for flood hazard mapping. The items described in the figure should be discussed and confirmed with stakeholders including local governments and residents through workshops, community meetings, etc.

Identify the target area Design flood (e.g., 50-year flood, • • Integrate neighboring areas and 100-year flood) • towns that share evacuation Largest flood previously recorded • shelters

• Preferable scale: 1/10,000 – 1/15,000 (at least 1/25,000) • The base map should be large enough to show evacuation routes and extent of inundation, and preferably individual houses as well.

Figure 5.2.3 Explanation of Basic Conditions of Flood Hazard Mapping

Step 2: Data Collection and Arrangement For flood hazard mapping, information on past inundation, evacuation, disaster risk reduction management and other related information are collected first. Field survey and hearing from local residents should be conducted especially for the confirmation of inundation history. Table 5.2.4 shows a list of data to be collected for flood hazard mapping and their general descriptions.

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Table 5.2.4 List of Data Collection for Flood Hazard Mapping and Their Descriptions CATEGORY DESCRIPTION  Base maps (topographic maps, e.g. open street map) BASE MAP  General-purpose maps

 Inundated areas and depth Past flood  Damage (assets, casualty, infrastructure)  Observed hydro-meteorological data: hourly water level and INFO rainfall at major gauging stations, etc. INUNDATION  Evacuation places: hospitals, homes for the elderly and handicapped, and other facilities concerned  Public facilities: national, provincial and municipal facilities, Important Facilities schools, fire and police stations  Lifelines: water supply, gas stations, and substations, telecommunication facilities Number of residents  Demographic and statistical information on population, to be evacuated households, vulnerable people, etc.  Spots with potential slope failures, mud flows and debris torrents EVACUATION INFO EVACUATION  Roads impassable during past inundation Dangerous spots  Past landslide spots, narrow passes along the waterways, underpasses, bridges, etc.  Emergency hotline numbers Communication Channels

 Siren patterns of alert and evacuation warnings

MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT Siren Patterns  Dos ad Do’ts before, durig ad after a flood evet

INFO  Locations Hydro-Meteorological  Data collection intervals REDUCTION Gauging Stations  Dissemination methods  Disaster prevention plans Evacuation Plan etc.  Flood mitigation activities DISASTER RISK DISASTER  Photographs: key landmarks, evacuation places  Flood facts Useful Information for  Aid stations EVACUATION  Flood warning information  Couity’s preparedess agaist floods  Characteristics on topographic features, flood types

OTHER  Regional characteristics of river floods Basic Information on  Mechanism of a flood Flood  Meteorological information  Historical flood information and records (rainfall, inundation and damage)

Step 3: Flood Hazard Simulation Based on the collected data, meteorological and hydrological analysis is conducted to simulate inundation area and depth in the target area. In some cases, instead of meteorological and hydrological analysis, target inundation area and depth are identified based on local inundation

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history using the record of flood marks. In the TA-8456 Part II project, the RRI Model was used for flood hazard simulation.

Step 4: Formulation of Draft Flood Hazard Map Figure 5.2.4 shows the formulation of flood hazard maps. A draft version of flood hazard map is prepared by overlaying three basic items: (i) a base map, (ii) inundation information, and (iii) important facilities and places. Additional items will be optionally added if necessary. Table 5.2.5 shows a description of each item.

ITEMS

Layer 4: Additional Info OPTIONAL

Layer 3: Key Landmarks

Layer 2: Inundation Data COMMON

Layer 1: Base Map

Figure 5.2.4 Basic Formulation Structure of a Hazard Map

Table 5.2.5 Basic and Optional Items for Formulation of Hazard Maps ITEMS/DESCRIPTION LAYER 1: BASE MAP Topographic features Basic information LAYER 2: INUNDATION INFO Estimated inundation areas/depths LAYER 3: IMPORTANT FACILITIES & PLACES BASIC ITEMS ITEMS BASIC Location of important facilities (e.g. police stations, hospitals, etc.) and evacuation (MUST BE SHOWN) BE (MUST places:

LAYER 4: ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Dangerous areas/spots for evacuation

Communication channels Useful information for evacuation

CDC/TDC) Basic information on floods (SELECTED BY (SELECTED OPTIONAL ITEMS ITEMS OPTIONAL

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Step 5: Confirmation and Validation After preparation of a draft flood hazard map, firstly it should be confirmed and validated with local governments. After this, a draft hazard map will be presented to the community through participatory processes such as workshops. In order to improve flood hazard maps for prevention of flood disasters and smooth evacuation, suggestions and advice from local residents are essential. Evacuation drills are also useful to confirm the contents of hazard maps. The following are the items in the maps that should be confirmed in this process:  Past inundation area and depth  Evacuation places and safe access roads  Other information required for the flood hazard map

Step 6: Dissemination and Utilization After finalization, the flood hazard map will be disseminated and utilized for flood management activities. Copies of the flood hazard map can be distributed to local residents, local governments and other related organizations in various forms such as printed maps, billboards, websites and mobile applications, as well as posting the map on the website of DMH and relevant organizations. The flood hazard map can be utilized to enhance the effectiveness of disaster risk management activities and improve the community’s resilience to floods. It can be distributed to elementary and junior high schools to educate children about disaster prevention. When the flood hazard map is distributed to the general public, the following issues should also be informed:  Flood hazard information may influence the value of land and real estate. Therefore, it is necessary to explain and discuss the advantages of the flood hazard map with various stakeholders to increase their understanding of the map.  Flood hazard conditions may change as social and natural conditions change. Therefore, continuous monitoring of social and natural conditions is required. If necessary, such changes should be reflected in the flood hazard map.

(3) Flood Hazard Maps for Three Target Cities In TA-8456 Part II, flood inundation simulations using the RRI Model were conducted under the calculation conditions as shown in Table 5.2.1. The results of the simulation for risk assessment are utilized to improve flood hazard maps. The first version of flood hazard map for the three target cities of Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine was presented to DMH and other related organizations including CDC/TDC in Interim Mission in October 2015. Then they were revised, based on the comments and suggestions received in the Workshop on Flood Hazard Mapping, held on 15 October 2015, and other meetings with various relevant organizations during the Interim Mission. The revised version of flood hazard map and a request for feedback were delivered to the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) and other related organizations through DMH on 11 November 2015. Based on the comments received from the questionnaire survey, the flood hazard maps were further revised, and the third version was produced and presented to CDC/TDC and other related organizations in the workshop on flood hazard mapping at each target city in January 2016. The third version of the maps was also introduced to DMH and other related organizations in the meetings in January 2016. Then, the fourth version was prepared in January 2016 using the re-calculated results of RRI Model simulation with improved DEM (based on AW3D) and also considering the comments received at the workshop in

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each target city. For Mandalay, bench mark data provided by MCDC was also incorporated in the analysis. In August 2016, the fifth version of flood hazard map was prepared only for Yangon with finer grid size and considering geodetic reference. A rainfall intensity formula was also applied to hourly rainfall data. In October 2016, the sixth version of flood hazard map was prepared using the benchmark data of Thilawa. In November 2016, the seventh version of flood hazard map was prepared reflecting the adjustment of tidal data. Table 5.2.6 shows changes made from the first to seventh versions of flood hazard map. Detailed flood hazard maps were also prepared with a different map scale (1:25,000) to show more detailed hazard conditions to identify inundation areas.

Table 5.2.6 Summary of Flood Hazard Map (FHM) Version Date Explanation of FHM issued Model and data used Displayed information [Initial Model]  Open Street Map was used as background.  DEM was made using HydroSHEDS (15  Background map was colored (roads and arc-seconds) streets, rivers and lakes, national park).  Calculation grid size of 15 arc-seconds  Seven symbols were indicated (embassy, Oct. First resolution (approx. 450m square) hospital, park, plant, school, religion and 2015  Daily rainfall data transportation).  Scale for the entire map was 1/50,000.  Legend for inundation depth did not follow any official standard coloring.  Color of the background map was changed to gray to display inundation depth clearly.  Scale for the entire map was changed to 1/100,000. Nov.  Color code of the legend for inundation Second 2015 depth was changed (ISO 22324 (Societal Security) is used as reference).  Symbols indicated were changed (Embassies and plants were deleted and public buildings were added).  Indication of latitudes and longitudes was added on the side of the map.  Indication of Geographical Coordinate Jan. Third System, WGS84, was added. 2016  Order of the legend items was turned upside down (top: facilities, bottom: inundation depth). [Second RRI Model]  Data on inundation depth were changed  DEM was made using AW3D using new simulated results calculated by (resolution:2m) and HydroSHEDS (15 second model. arc-seconds) May. Fourth  Elevation of HydroSHEDS was adjusted to 2016 AW3D.  Calculation grid size of 15 arc-seconds resolution (approx. 450m square)  Daily rainfall data [Third RRI Model]  Data on inundation depth were changed  Calculation grid size of 6 arc-seconds using new simulated results calculated by Fifth Aug. resolution (approx. 180m square) third model. (Only for 2016  Hourly rainfall data created by the rainfall  The map was produced only for Yangon Yangon) intensity formula from YCDC, and given Area. to RRI Model as input data.

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Version Date Explanation of FHM issued Model and data used Displayed information [Fourth RRI Model]  Data on inundation depth were slightly  The elevation data of the southern part of changed using new simulated results Yangon (the left side of Bago River and calculated by fourth model. the left side of Yangon River, i.e., the area Sixth Oct. located south-east of the Bago River) were (Only for 2016 checked with the benchmark data provided Yangon) by the Myanmar Japan Thilawa Development Limited (MjTD ). Then the original data of HydroSHEDS was applied again to this area. [Fifth RRI Model] Seventh  Data on inundation depth were changed Nov.  Tidal data (lower boundary condition) was (Only for using new simulated results calculated by 2016 revised based on the benchmark survey by Yangon) fifth model. MjTD (see Annex-5)

Table 5.2.7 shows a summary of flood hazard maps prepared in this TA. Figure 5.2.5 shows the flood hazard map for Yangon area. Figure 5.2.6 and Figure 5.2.7 show the flood hazard maps for Mandalay and Mawlamyine areas.

Table 5.2.7 Summary of Flood Hazard Maps as of November 2016 Description Cities Flood Scale Calculation Grid Boundary Condition 1) 100-year flood  HydroSHEDS  Design rainfall (1/100, hourly) is given to (based on SRTM) all calculation grids. and AW3D  Initially the sea water level of 2007 near Figure 5.2.5 (left)  6 arc seconds the river mouth observed by ID was used (approx. 180m) for the boundary condition, which was later replaced by the average sea water level estimated from the astronomical tidal level data of 2016 (from May to October) in Yangon. This average sea water level was revised based on the results of the benchmark survey by MjTD (see section 4.2.10 and Annex-5). Yangon 2) Record-high flood  Observed rainfall of 2007 is given to all Flood of 2007 (approximately calculation grids. a 70-year flood by 2-week  Initially the sea water level of 2007 near the total rainfall and a 600-year river mouth observed by ID was used for flood by one-day total rainfall the boundary condition, which was later at Kaba-Aye station) replaced by the average sea water level Ditto estimated from the astronomical tidal level Figure 5.2.5 (right) data of 2016 (from May to October) in Yangon. This average sea water level was revised based on the results of the benchmark survey by MjTD (see section 4.2.10 and Annex-5). 1) 100-year flood  HydroSHEDS  Design discharge (1/100) is given to the (based on SRTM) upstream border Figure 5.2.6 (left) and AW3D  Observed rainfall (2004) is given to all  15 arc second calculation grids (approx. 450m)  Observed water level of 2004 at Sagaing Mandalay station is given as the lower boundary condition. 2) Record-high flood  Observed discharge (2004) is given to the Flood of 2004 (approximately upstream border 30-year return period, sample:  Observed Rainfall (2004) is given to all

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Description Cities Flood Scale Calculation Grid Boundary Condition discharge at Thabeikkyin Ditto calculation grids station )  Observed water level of 2004 at Sagaing station is given to the downstream border. Figure 5.2.6 (right) 1) 100-year flood  HydroSHEDS  Design rainfall (1/100) is given to all (based on SRTM) calculation grids Figure 5.2.7 (left) and AW3D  Observed water level of 2013 near river  15 arc seconds mouth provided by DMH is given as the (approx. 450m) lower boundary condition. 2) Record-high flood  Observed Rainfall (2013) is given to all Mawlamyine Flood of 2013 calculation grids ( approximately 4-year return Ditto  Observed water level of 2013 near the river period, sample: 3-day rainfall mouth provided by DMH is given as the of average watershed lower boundary condition. rainfall )

Figure 5.2.7 (right)

These maps indicate the locations of important facilities including official buildings, hospitals, schools, etc. Flood hazard maps are expected to be utilized as the basic data to formulate evacuation strategies and identify dangerous spots during flood events. In addition, proper urban development plans can be formulated based on flood hazard and disaster risk maps. All flood hazard maps prepared by TA-8456 Part II is attached in Annex-8.

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-week total rainfall) rainfall) total -week (2 version) version) th (Seven

flood 70-year approx. 2007, Flood of Figure 5.2.5 5.2.5 Figure Yangon in Maps Hazard Flood

100-year flood (Hourly rainfall intensity formula) (Seventh version) version) (Seventh formula) intensity rainfall flood (Hourly 100-year

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ndalay ndalay Ma Flood of 2004, approx. 30-year flood (Fourth version) version) (Fourth flood 30-year approx. 2004, Flood of Flood Hazard Maps in Maps Hazard Flood

5.2.6 Figure

100-year flood (Fourth version) version) (Fourth flood 100-year

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Flood of 2013, approx. 4-year flood (Fourth version) version) (Fourth flood 4-year approx. 2013, Flood of

in Mawlamyine Maps Hazard Flood

5.2.7 Figure 100-year flood (Fourth version) version) (Fourth flood 100-year

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5.2.3 Coastal Flood Hazard Mapping Coastal flood hazard maps (hereinafter called as CFHM) were prepared in the same way as flood hazard maps. Table 5.2.8 shows a summary of CFHM. The maps were prepared under the condition as follows: (i) Both storm surges and a river flood were considered (with rainfall) (ii) Only the effect of storm surges was considered (without rainfall) In the case of (i), the target scale was set as a combined scale of a flood of 100-year return period and storm surges of the same scale of those caused by Cyclone Nargis with an assumption that their peak intensities occur simultaneously, and the route of Cyclone Nargis was also considered, as shown in Table 5.2.3 and Figure 5.2.1.

Table 5.2.8 Summary of Coastal Flood Hazard Maps (CFHM) Version of Date Explanation CFHM issued Model and data used Descriptions  Hybrid modeling (RRI Model  The maps were prepared for Yangon (fourth version) and Storm Surge and Mawlamyine areas. Model)  The maps for Yangon were prepared  AW3D 2m and HydroSHEDS 15 with inundation caused by both First May arc-seconds DEM rainfall (1/100) and/or storm surge version 2016  Calculation grid size of 15 (Nargis 2008). arc-seconds resolution  The maps for Mawlamyine were also (approx. 450m square) prepared with inundation caused by  Daily rainfall data virtual storm surge only. Figure 5.2.11  Hybrid modeling (RRI Model  The map was prepared only for (fifth version) and Storm Surge Yangon Area. Model)  The maps for Yangon were prepared Second  AW3D 2m and HydroSHEDS 3 with inundation caused by both version June arc-seconds DEM rainfall (1/100) and/or storm surge

2016  Calculation grid size of 6 (Nargis 2008). (Only for arc-seconds resolution Yangon) (approx. 180m square)  Hourly rainfall data based on rainfall intensity formula  Hybrid modeling (RRI Model  Sea water level used for the lower Third (seventh version) and Storm boundary condition was revised Version Surge Model) based on the result of the benchmark November  Lower boundary condition was survey by MjTD (see section 4.2.10 2016 (Only for revised and Annex-5). Yangon) Figure 5.2.10

Figure 5.2.10 (right) shows the inundation area estimated only considering storm surges of the same scale of those due to Cyclone Nargis, indicating that the inundation caused by the cyclone was limited. This agrees with the results from the field survey in August 2014, which found that the inundation of Yangon City by Cyclone Nargis was limited to the harbor areas (see Figure 5.2.8). Furthermore, MjTD staff reported that there was no inundation around the Thilawa Special Economic Zone (the east side of Yangon River) when Cyclone Nargis landed there. But Figure 5.2.10 (left) shows that when heavy rainfall occur simultaneously, there will be inundation because inland water cannot be drained well out to the sea.

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In August 2014 Figure 5.2.8 Flood Marks of Cyclone Nargis (near Botahtaung Pagoda, in Yangon)

On the other hand, although many people were victimized on the west side of the Yangon River (including Kawkhmu and Insein districts) during Cyclone Nargis in 2008, the calculation results do not indicate inundation, as illustrated in Figure 5.2.10. This is because no benchmark data is available for the calibration of topographic data, which stresses the importance of benchmark data to perform accurate simulations (see section 4.2.9).

[HydroSHEDS] – [1.1m] (Adjusted to AW3D)

[AW3D]

HydroSHEDS (Checking by MjTD’s benchmarks)

HydroSHEDS (No benchmark is available)

Figure 5.2.9 Calibrated Areas of Yangon with Benchmarks

In addition, if elevation data are modified based on benchmarks, the datum level of the benchmarks should be checked before applying to elevation, water level, and other data (see Annex-5).

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Without rainfall rainfall Without Coastal Flood Hazard Map Considering Cyclone Nargis in Yangon (Third version) (Third version) in Yangon Nargis Cyclone Map Considering Hazard Flood Coastal

5.2.10 Figure With rainfall (100-year flood) flood) (100-year rainfall With

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Figure 5.2.11 shows a coastal flood hazard map of Mawlamyine, which shows inundation only considering the effect of storm surges (a virtual cyclone based on Cyclone Nargis, see Figure 5.2.1). Coastal flood hazard maps prepared by TA-8456 Part II is attached in Annex-9.

Without rainfall rainfall Without Coastal Flood Hazard Map Considering a Virtual a Virtual Map Considering Hazard Flood Coastal

Cyclone in Mawlamyine (First version) version) (First Mawlamyine in Cyclone 11 Figure 5.2. Figure

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5.3 Flood Risk Assessment 5.3.1 Importance of Flood Risk Assessment Risk of a flood disaster can be increased by rapid urbanization if no considerations are taken for flood hazard and the risk of a resulting disaster, particularly in developing countries. Flood risk assessment provides essential information for designing future development activities by identifying existing risk and new risk created by future changes in land use and socio-economic activities, as well as for evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to reduce such risk. Figure 5.3.1 shows the basic process of formulating a flood disaster risk reduction plan. The process starts with flood hazard assessment and then identification of flood disaster risk, and the results are utilized to assess the effectiveness of flood disaster reduction strategies by comparing the difference in risk level between with and without countermeasures.

Figure 5.3.2 shows how risk assessment is utilized in identifying the effectiveness of preventive measures. The left side shows the original condition with estimated damage that can be caused by a target flood. The amount of damage is defined by the intensity of a hazard, which is water depth in this case. The right side shows estimated damage after the completion of river improvement works as preventive investment. After the improvement, the inundation area and depth will be reduced; therefore the total damage will also be reduced. As such, risk assessment can show the effectiveness of preventive investment in terms of monetary value. Figure 5.3.3 shows an example of simulating the effectiveness of preventive investment in the case of actual flood events: (1) a flood caused by Tokai heavy rain (September 2000) in the Shonai and Shin rivers of Aichi Prefecture, Japan, and (2) a flood caused by Fukuoka heavy rain (July 2003) in the Mikasa River of Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. The figure shows that actual damage in the past, simulated damage from the same heavy rainfall event after the completion of preventive projects, and the cost of preventive projects. The effect of the preventive projects in the case of Tokai heavy rain is 7.7 times the cost of the preventive measures, and in the case of Fukuoka heavy rain, it is 8.3 times. Thus, flood risk assessment can be used to assess existing risk and future risk in terms of monetary value, considering changes of the conditions made by preventive projects. The results of flood risk assessment very often favor decisions on preventive investment.

Flood Hazard Assessment Identify hazard condition for target scale of flood by Flood Hazard Simulation Model (e.g. RRI Model) Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Identify exposed elements (people, housing, agricultural land, etc.) Identify anticipated damage caused by the vulnerability of exposed elements (Risk Indicator)

Formulation of Flood Disaster Risk Reduction Plan Examine future change (land use, socio-economic condition, climate change, etc.) Identify possible disaster risk reduction measures (structural measures (preventive investment) and non-structural measures) and assess the effectiveness of each measures Formulate strategies by selecting effective measures (Evidence-based Planning)

Figure 5.3.1 Process for Flood Disaster Risk Management Plan

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Figure 5.3.2 Example of Evaluation of Effectiveness of Preventive Measures (Source: MLIT)

Figure 5.3.3 Example of Evaluation of Effectiveness of Preventive Measures in Aichi and Fukuoka Prefectures, Japan (Source: MLIT)

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Table 5.3.1 Risk Assessment Level Assessment Prepared Factors for Risk Assessment Assessment items Level Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Observed data Global Data Use Existing Risk - Potential damage Basic - past inundation depth Determine distribution of Indicator area and affected - past inundation area urban, industrial and Evaluate vulnerability people at the residential areas to using risk indicators inundation scale of a past flood 1 Without hydrological identify potential damage developed for other and hydraulic areas areas (countries) - Rough estimation of simulation potential damage to - using global data agriculture, etc. (if risk indicators are available) Simulation results Global Data and Use Existing Risk - Potential damage - inundation depth Collected Data Indicator area and affected - inundation area Determine distribution of Evaluate vulnerability people in case of a - inundation duration urban, industrial and using risk indicators future target flood residential areas to developed for other - Potential damage to 2 With hydrological and identify potential damage areas (countries); the agriculture, etc. (if risk hydraulic simulation areas results will be partially indicators are (using satellite - using the combination verified by the available) topographic data) of global data and collected damage data collected data (e.g. damage area, change of total harvest) Simulation results Collected Data Develop Risk - Potential damage - inundation depth - Using statistical Indicator area and affected - inundation area information collected and - Develop risk people in case of a - inundation duration arranged by the country: indicators using past future target flood population, property of damage data and hazard - Potential damage to 3 With hydrological and housing, industry, data to evaluate agriculture, houses, hydraulic simulation agriculture, etc. vulnerability etc. (using aerial topographic data)

Simulation results Collected Data Develop Risk - Potential damage - inundation depth - Using statistical Indicator area and affected - inundation area information collected and - Develop risk people in case of a - inundation duration arranged by the country: indicators using past future target flood - Potential damage to population, property of damage data and hazard housing, industrial, agriculture, houses, 4 With hydrological and data to evaluate agriculture etc. vulnerability etc. hydraulic simulation (using ground

topographic data))

Simulation results Collected Data Develop Risk - Potential damage - inundation depth - Using statistical Indicators and area and affected - inundation area information collected and evaluate indirect people in case of a - inundation duration arranged by the country: damage future target flood - Potential damage to population, property of - Develop risk agriculture, houses, With hydrological and housing, industrial, indicators using past etc. 5 hydraulic simulation agriculture etc. damage data and hazard - Potential damage to (using ground data to evaluate socio-economic topographic data)) vulnerability activities (indirect - Evaluate indirect damage) Advanced damage to socio-economic activities

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5.3.2 Methodology of Flood Risk Assessment Table 5.3.1 shows the levels of risk assessment. The levels are defined by available data and methodologies to assess hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The basic level is a premature stage where data are minimally available for assessment. In some cases, available for flood risk assessment are only global data, such as rainfall, topography, land use and population. Assessment will be enhanced as the availability of field observed data increases and simulation tools improve. The basic level of assessment can provide a limited quality of risk information that can be utilized to show a rough sketch of risk map, while the advanced level of assessment can show a fine resolution of risk map that enables detailed design of future planning. Therefore continuous efforts should be made on risk assessment by improving the quality and quantity of data and simulation tools.

Based on data availability, risk assessment under TA-8456 Part II was undertaken as assessment level 2. Flood hazard assessment was conducted using the RRI Model. Flood disaster risk assessment was conducted for Mandalay, Yangon and Mawlamyine areas and the Bago River basin. The methodology of flood risk assessment in TA-8456 Part II is described as follows:

(a) Data collection Data required for flood risk assessment were collected from related organizations in Myanmar. Global data were also used such as Global Land Cover and LandScan 2014 Global Population. Data used to identify agricultural areas were the Global Land Cover by National Mapping Organizations (GLCNMO), which was developed by the secretariat of the International Steering Committee for Global Mapping (ISCGM) in collaboration with the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, Chiba University, and the National Geospatial Information Authorities of respective countries and regions. To identify potentially affected people, LandScan 2014 Global Population data were used, which was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the United States Department of Defense. Table 5.3.2 shows the general descriptions of GLCNMO land cover and LandScan 2014 Global Population data.

Table 5.3.2 General Description of Data used for Flood Risk Assessment Data type General Descriptions Land Cover:  Horizontal Resolution: 30 arc seconds GLCNMO (Version 1)  Coordinate system: WGS84  Availability: Free  Data Provider: ISCGM, https://www.iscgm.org/gmd/

Population:  Horizontal Resolution: 30 arc seconds LandScan 2014 Global  Coordinate system: WGS84 Population  Availability: Not Free  Data Provider: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/index.shtml

(b) Hazard assessment Flood hazard characteristics such as flood inundation depth and duration were computed using the RRI Model. The digital elevation model of HydroSHEDS data was initially used for hazard assessment, but was later replaced by AW3D for the central area of each city. Flood inundation depth and duration were calculated at 450 m x 450 m grid cell for Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine areas, and at 900 m x 900 m grid cell for the Bago River basin. The detailed information of RRI Model simulation is described in Chapter 4. Figure 5.3.4 to Figure 5.3.7 show the maximum flood inundation depth for both past flood and 100-year flood cases in the target areas. Table 5.3.3 shows a summary of flood inundation areas in the target areas.

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2004 flood 100-year flood

Inundated area (>0.5m depth)= 121,136 ha Inundated area (>0.5m depth)= 122,432 ha

Figure 5.3.4 Maximum Flood Inundation Depth in Case of Mandalay Area

2007 flood 100-year flood

Inundated area (>0.5m depth)= 16,828 ha Inundated area (>0.5m depth)= 23,551 ha

Figure 5.3.5 Maximum Flood Inundation Depth in Case of Yangon Area

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2013 flood 100-year flood

Inundated area (>0.5m depth)= 31,408 ha Inundated area (>0.5m depth)= 55,100 ha

Figure 5.3.6 Maximum Flood Inundation Depth in Case of Mawlamyine Area

2014 flood 100-year flood

Inundated area (>0.5m depth)= 161,676 ha Inundated area (>0.5m depth)= 180,549 ha Figure 5.3.7 Maximum Flood Inundation Depth in Case of Bago River Basin

Table 5.3.3 Summary of Flood Inundation Areas in the Target Areas

Inundated area (>0.5m depth) (Past Inundated area (>0.5m Flood) depth) (100-Year Flood) Target Area Area (ha) Flood Event Inundated Inundated (ha) (ha) Area in % Area in % Mandalay Area 564,246 2004 Flood 121,136 21.47 122,432 21.70 Yangon Area 285,485 2007 Flood 16,828 5.89 23,551 8.24 Mawlamyine Area 194,481 2013 Flood 31,408 16.15 55,100 28.33 Bago River basin 464,778 2014 Flood 161,676 34.79 180,549 38.84

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(c) Identification of Exposed Elements for Disaster Risk Assessment Major exposed elements such as agriculture and population were considered for risk assessment in the target areas. The globally available data of land cover and population are presented in Table 5.3.4 and Table 5.3.5, respectively.

Table 5.3.4 List of Some Globally Available Land Cover Data Data Descriptions Data Provider Specification Website Link GLCC (Global Land USGS Spatial Resolution: 30 http://edc2.usgs.gov/glcc/euras_int. Cover Characterization) arc-seconds php http://edc2.usgs.gov/glcc/glcc.php Global Land Cover ISCGM Spatial Resolution: 15 https://www.iscgm.org/gmd/ (GLCNMO) and 30 arc-seconds GLC2000 Joint Research Spatial Resolution: 30 http://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/produ Center arc-seconds cts/glc2000/products.php Global Land FAO Spatial Resolution: 30 http://www.glcn.org/databases/lc_g Cover-SHARE arc-seconds lcshare_downloads_en.jsp World Land Cover http://www.fao.org/geonetwork/srv /en/main.home?uuid=ba4526fd-cdb f-4028-a1bd-5a559c4bff38 MODIS Land Cover NASA/USGS Spatial Resolution: 15 http://gdex.cr.usgs.gov/gdex/ arc-seconds All data are freely available.

Table 5.3.5 List of Some Globally Available Population Data Data Descriptions Data Provider Specification Website Link World Population The WorldPop Project Spatial Resolution: http://www.worldpop.org.uk/ 100m 2010 and 2015 versions LandScan Global UT-Battelle and US Spatial Resolution: http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/ Population Department of Energy 30 arc-seconds Available Year: 1998, 2000 to 2012 Population Density DIVA-GIS Spatial Resolution: http://www.diva-gis.org/gdata (based on CIESIN, 2000) 30 arc-seconds Old data (2000) Country Level United Nations Population I Country level data http://www.un.org/popin/data.htm population online nformation Network l data base All data are free except LandScan Global Population data.

In this project, GLCNMO land cover data and LandScan 2014 Global population data (procured) were used to identify the exposed agricultural area and population in the target areas. Figure 5.3.8 shows the GLCNMO land cover data in the target areas. GLCNMO data are classified from 1 to 20 classes as shown in Table 5.3.6. Paddy-field and population data for the target areas were extracted using Geographical Information Tools (GIS). Figure 5.3.9 and Figure 5.3.10 show paddy fields and exposed population distribution in the target areas, respectively.

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(a) Mandalay Area (b) Yangon Area

(c) Mawlamyine Area (d) Bago Area Figure 5.3.8 GLCNMO Land Cover in the Target Areas

Table 5.3.6 Classification of GLCNMO Land Cover Data Code Class Name Code Class Name 1 Broadleaf Evergreen Forest 11 Cropland 2 Broadleaf Deciduous Forest 12 Paddy field 3 Needleleaf Evergreen Forest 13 Cropland/Other Vegetation Mosaic 4 Needleleaf Deciduous Forest 14 Mangrove 5 Mixed Forest 15 Wetland 6 Tree Open 16 Bare area, consolidation (gravel, rock) 7 Shrub 17 Bare area, unconsolidated (sand) 8 Herbaceous 18 Urban 9 Herbaceous with Sparse Tree/Shrub 19 Snow/Ice 10 Sparse vegetation 20 Water bodies

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Paddy Area = 77,922 ha Paddy Area = 50,018 ha

(b) Yangon Area (a) Mandalay Area

Paddy Area Paddy Area = 77,436 ha = 6,075 ha

(c) Mawlamyine Area (d) Bago Area

Figure 5.3.9 Paddy Fields in the Target Areas Based on GLCNMO Land Cover Data

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Exposed Population Exposed Population = 2.62 million = 6.12 million

(a) Mandalay Area (b) Yangon Area

Exposed Population Exposed Population = 0.93 million = 0.31 million

(c) Mawlamyine Area (d) Bago Area

Figure 5.3.10 Distribution of Population in the Target Areas Based on LandScan 2014 Global Population at 30 arc-second Grid Size (approximately 900m)

The LandScan 2014 Global population data were used to estimate affected people in the hazard areas. The maximum inundation depth calculated by the RRI Model was imported into Geographical Information System (GIS). Since flood hazard assessment was conducted at 450 m spatial resolution for Mandalay, Yangon and Mawlamyine areas, population data of 900 m grid size were downscaled for these areas to 450 m grid size. The grid size of flood hazard assessment in Bago area was 900 m, which was the same grid size of population data. The population data and flood hazard areas were overlaid in GIS. Then, the population in the flood hazard areas was extracted. Figure 5.3.11 to Figure 5.3.14 show potentially exposed population in the flood hazard areas in Mandalay, Yangon, Mawlamyine and Bago, respectively, for both a past flood event and a 100-year flood. The list of flood hazard used for this simulation is presented in Table 5.2.1. For the Bago River basin, two-day maximum rainfall data were used for statistical analysis to determine a 100-year flood. Table 5.3.7 shows a summary of potentially exposed population in the hazard areas of the target areas.

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(a) 2004 Flood Case (b) 100-Year Flood Case

Figure 5.3.11 Potentially Exposed Population in Flood Hazards Areas in Mandalay (at 450 m grid size)

(a) 2007 Flood Case (b) 100-Year Flood Case

Figure 5.3.12 Potentially Exposed Population in Flood Hazards Areas in Yangon (at 450 m grid size)

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(a) 2013 Flood Case (b) 100-Year Flood Case

Figure 5.3.13 Potentially Exposed Population in Flood Hazards Areas in Mawlamyine (at 450 m grid size)

(a) 2014 Flood Case (b) 100-Year Flood Case

Figure 5.3.14 Potentially Exposed Population in Flood Hazards Areas in Bago (at 900 m grid size)

Table 5.3.7 Summary of Potentially Exposed Population in the Target Areas Target Areas Affected People (Number)  2004 Flood Case: 984,743 Mandalay  100-Year Flood Case: 1,015,585  2007 Flood Case: 626,298 Yangon  100-Year Flood Case: 704,381  2013 Flood Case: 168,876 Mawlamyine  100-Year Flood Case: 209,648  2014 Flood Case: 452,698 Bago  100-Year Flood Case: 561,318

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LossVolume  Rice Yield Damaged AreaYield Loss

Chapter 5 TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management – Part II Flood Management

Rainfall Runoff Land Use Map Development Inundation Model of Damage Flood depth Curves and duration Select: Stages of Agriculture Area crops and cropping calendar

Agriculture Damage Estimation

Figure 5.3.15 Process of Agriculture Damage Estimation

(d) Identification of Disaster Risk for Exposed Elements Flood damage to agriculture (rice crop) was estimated by defining damage as a function of flood depth, flood duration and growing stages of rice plants. Figure 5.3.15 shows the process of agricultural damage estimation. The flood damage curves, proposed by Shrestha et al. (2015)6 (Figure 5.3.16) using the flood damage matrix published by the Philippines Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS, 2013)7, were applied to estimate the yield loss of rice plants due to flooding. These flood damage functions were already applied and validated in the Pampanga River Basin of the Philippines and the Solo River Basin of Indonesia. Based on the developed flood damage curves and flood inundation characteristics, agricultural damage were estimated by the following equations:

LossVolume  Rice Yield Damaged AreaYield Loss (1) DamageValue  LossVolume FarmGate price (2)

The average value of farm gate price equal to 235 Kyat/kg and rice yield equal to 3,840 kg/ha in the case of Myanmar were used in the calculation8. Figure 5.3.17 shows the growing stages of rice crop and the duration of each stage. Figure 5.3.18 shows cropping patterns in Mandalay, Yangon and Mawlamyine areas, which were obtained from the Department of Agricultural Planning, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (later re-named as Department of Planning, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation). Based on the cropping calendar/pattern and duration of the growing stage, the stage of rice plants during the flood period was identified.

In this TA, the flood damage curves of rice crop developed for the Philippines were tentatively used to assess damage, which should be examined by the actual damage data and records of hazard conditions in the field of Myanmar.

6 Shrestha B.B., Okazumi T., Mamoru M. and Sawano H., Flood damage assessment in the Pampanga river basin of the Philippines, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2015. 7 Philippines Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), Manual on damage assessment and reporting system, 2013. 8 Myanmar Agricultural at a Glance, Department of Agricultural Planning, Ministry of Agricultural and Irrigation, 2013.

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Flood duration= 1-2 days Flood duration= 3-4 days Flood duration= 5-6 days

Flood duration= 7 days Flood duration >7 days 100 100 Vegetative Stage Reproductive 80 80 Stage 60 60

40 40

20 20 Percentage of yield (%) loss yield Percentage of Percentage of yield (%) loss yield Percentage of 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Flood depth (m) Flood depth (m) 100 100 Maturity Stage Ripening Stage 80 80 Note: Green line and blue line are overlapped 60 60

40 40

20 20 Percentage of yield (%) loss yield Percentage of Percentage of yield (%) loss yield Percentage of 0 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Flood depth (m) Flood depth (m)

Figure 5.3.16 Damage Curves of Rice Crops Resulting from Flood Inundation (Shrestha et al., 2015)9

130

100

40 Plant HeightPlant (cm)

0 20 40 65 95 135 Days from seeding to harvest Seeding Flowering Harvest Maximum tillering and panicle formation Duration (days) 20 20 25 30 40 Seedbed / Newly Vegetative Growth Stage Reproductive Stage Maturity Stage Seedling Planted Stage

Figure 5.3.17 Growth Stages of Rice Crops and the Duration of Each Stage

9 Shrestha B.B., Okazumi T., Mamoru M. and Sawano H., Flood damage assessment in the Pampanga river basin of the Philippines, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2015.

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July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

Sesame Paddy (monsoon) Chickpeas (summer)

Sesame Paddy (monsoon) Green Gram (summer)

Sesame Paddy (monsoon) Black Gram (summer)

(a) Mandalay region

June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Paddy (monsoon) Black Gram (Paddy summer)

(b) Yangon region

June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Paddy (monsoon) Paddy (summer)

Paddy (monsoon) Oil crops

Paddy (monsoon) Beans

(c) Mon State (Mawlamyine) region Figure 5.3.18 Cropping Patterns Currently Practiced in (a) Mandalay region, (b) Yangon region, and (c) Mon State (Mawlamyine) region (Data source: Department of Agricultural Planning, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Myanmar).

5.3.3 Results of Flood Risk Assessment in Target Areas Flood damage to agriculture was assessed for the following cases: (i) Past largest flood event, and (ii) 100-year flood case

Spatial resolution is an important factor in risk assessment, which should be considered from the following points: (i) Objective of the study, (ii) Size of the target area, (iii) Data availability, and (iv) Calculation time

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In this project, flood disaster risk assessment was conducted at 450 m spatial resolution for Mandalay, Yangon and Mawlamyine areas and at 900 m spatial resolution for Bago area because these grid sizes were used for hazard assessment. The land cover data of 900 m grid size were downscaled to 450 m grid size for Mandalay, Yangon and Mawlamyine areas by using GIS tools. Table 5.3.8 shows the general descriptions of agricultural damage estimation. Flood damage was assessed for the past largest flood case and a 100-year flood case in Mandalay, Yangon and Mawlamyine areas, and for recent and 100-year flood cases in the Bago River basin. In the case of risk assessment for the past flood event, the stage of rice crop during the flood event was identified based on the duration of the growing stage (Figure 5.3.17) and the cropping calendar (Figure 5.3.18). The stage of rice crop for a 100-year flood in each target area was assumed to be similar to the stage of rice crop during the past flood case.

Table 5.3.8 Descriptions of Agricultural Damage Estimation Area Mandalay Yangon Mawlamyine Bago Descriptions  Past Flood:  Past Flood: May  Past Flood:  Past Flood: Target Flood August-September 2007 (damage to July-August 2013 August 2014 Event 2004 summer paddy)

 100-year flood  100-year flood  100-year flood  100-year flood Spatial 450 m 450 m 450 m 900 m Resolution  Past flood:  Past flood:  Past Flood:  Past Flood: Reproductive Reproductive Maturity stage Maturity stage Stage of Rice Stage stage  100-Year Flood:  100-Year Flood: Crop  100-Year Flood:  100-Year Flood: Maturity stage Maturity stage Reproductive Reproductive (assumed) (assumed) Stage (assumed) Stage (assumed)

(a) 2004 Flood Case (b) 100-Year Flood Case

Figure 5.3.19 Calculated Agricultural Damage (rice crop) in Mandalay Areas (450m x 450m grid size)

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Figure 5.3.19 to Figure 5.3.22 show the calculated agricultural damage (rice crop) in Mandalay, Yangon, Mawlamyine and Bago areas, respectively. Table 5.3.9 shows the total exposed paddy area, damage paddy area and the total calculated value of agricultural damage.

(b) 100-Year Flood Case (a) 2007 Flood Case Figure 5.3.20 Calculated Agricultural Damage (rice crop) in Yangon Areas (450m x 450m grid size)

(a) 2013 Flood Case (b) 100-Year Flood Case

Figure 5.3.21 Calculated Agricultural Damage (rice crop) in Mawlamyine Areas (450m x 450m grid size)

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(a) 2014 Flood Case (b) 100-Year Flood Case

Figure 5.3.22 Calculated Agricultural Damage (rice crop) in Bago Areas (900m x 900m grid size)

Table 5.3.9 Summary of Calculated Results of Flood Damage Assessment Total Estimated Total Paddy Area Damaged Paddy Area Target Areas Flood Events Damage (in (ha) (ha) (%) Billion Kyat) 2004 Flood 41,735 53.5 36.65 Mandalay 77,922 100-Year Flood 41,938 53.8 37.02

2007 Flood 4,172 8.33 1.13 Yangon 50,018 100-Year Flood 5,467 10.9 1.36

2013 Flood 3,868 63.66 3.27 Mawlamyine 6,075 100-Year Flood 4,293 70.66 3.73

2014 Flood 51,435 66.42 43.76 Bago 77,436 100-Year Flood 57,996 74.89 47.37

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Table 5.3.10 shows the comparison of calculated damage paddy area with reported damage at the township level. The reported damage data were obtained from the Department of Agricultural Planning. Figure 5.3.23 shows the plots of calculated and reported paddy damage areas. The results show that the calculated damage area was larger in Mandalay area and smaller in Yangon area. However, in Mawlamyine and Bago areas, the calculated damage paddy area was found to be in reasonable agreement with the reported data. The following are possible reasons for discrepancy between simulation result and reported damage. (Topographic and land cover data) Since agricultural damage caused by flooding depends on inundation depth and duration, the quality of topographic data strongly influences the simulation results. Land cover data is also important to identify the area of paddy fields accurately. This study used globally available land cover data. Damage assessment can be further improved by adjusting globally available topographical data with ground observed elevation data and also by using locally available land cover data to reflect actual local conditions. (Availability of damage data in the subdivided area) In the case of Yangon, the damage area within the study area was calculated using the proportion of paddy fields in the study area to the total paddy fields in the township (in Hlegu and Htantabin Townships), because the damage area was available only for the township. This may also be a cause of the discrepancy. Damage data at subdivided areas should be compared with simulated values at each place. (Applicability of damage curves) The damage curves for rice crop applied to this simulation were developed in the Philippines because such data are not available in Myanmar for the moment. Though there are many similarities of rice crop in Asian countries, it is recommended that each country should develop damage curves to reflect the actual characteristics of their rice-crop cultivation. (Methodologies of observation) Methodologies of counting damage area in the field also can cause differences between simulation results and counted values. The standardization of counting damage is an important point for the comparison with simulation.

These possible causes can be verified and simulation results can be improved through the continuous efforts of data collection and analysis and refinement of methodologies. Since damage data are a basis for all planning, it is recommended to undertake disaster risk assessment for the formulation of disaster risk reduction strategies.

Table 5.3.10 Comparison of Calculated Damage Paddy Area with Reported Damage Area

Damage Paddy Area (ha) Target Areas Township Flood Event Reported #1 Calculated

Singu 3,427 12,191

Madaya 3,539 13,811 Mandalay 2004 Flood Amarapura 410 2,936

Sintgaing 290 1,681

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Damage Paddy Area (ha) Target Areas Township Flood Event Reported #1 Calculated

Hlegu #2 3,273 1,276 Yangon 2007 Flood Htantabin #2 4,736 972

Mawlamyine Kyaikmaraw 2013 Flood 2,426 3,706

Bago 6,698 12,717

Bago Kawa 2014 Flood 20,620 11,745

Thanatpin 16,573 16,524

# 1 Reported data were obtained from the Department of Agricultural Planning (Data of Hlegu and Htantabin are calculated values from the original data as explained in #2) # 2 Reported damage also includes damage outside the study area; therefore, estimated values were calculated using the proportion of the total paddy fields in the study area to the paddy fields in the whole township. The total area of damaged paddy fields in Hlegu and Htantabin townships in Yangon region is 8,863 and 13,971 ha, respectively. The total paddy area in Hlegu Township is 23,247 ha, out of which 8,586 ha (36.9%) lies in the study area. The total paddy area in Htantabin Township is 19,116 ha, out of which 6,480 ha (33.8%) lies in the study area. Therefore, 36.9 % and 33.8 % are applied for the total damaged paddy area.

25 Red: Mandalay Township Green: Yangon Amarapura 20 Purple: Mawlamyine Blue: Bago Madaya Sintgaing 15 Singu Hlegu Htantabin 10 Kyaikmaraw (in thousands ha) thousands(in Bago

Calculated Damage Area Area Damage Calculated Thanatpin 5 Kawa

0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Reported Damage Area (in thousands ha)

Figure 5.3.23 Plots of Calculated and Reported Paddy Damage Area

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CHAPTER 6 BUSINESS PLAN

6.1 General Description DMH has responsibilities for weather forecasting, dissemination of early warnings, and flood monitoring. For instance, DMH provides early warning information to the national and local government organizations concerned, the general public, and the media1. As such, DMH has an important role in disaster management at the “response” stage. In addition, accumulated meteorological and hydrological data in DMH are essential for flood risk assessment because these data are basic information for developing flood disaster risk reduction strategies during the “prevention” stage. Information on flood risk is also required to rebuild damaged areas after disasters in an effort to “build back better,” which is one of the priority actions in the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Therefore monitoring and management of meteorological and hydrological data are essential in the disaster risk reduction management cycle. This chapter focuses on the business plan for DMH to further enhance the effectiveness and capabilities to perform activities for disaster risk reduction. However, since activities for disaster risk reduction cannot be done by DMH alone, the business plan for DMH includes issues that should be undertaken by other organizations concerned. The approach to formulating DMH’s business plan started with the identification of key issues and challenges of DMH through conducting interview and questionnaire survey and collecting information on ongoing and forthcoming activities by DMH. Then, they were summarized and analyzed to produce suggestions and recommendations, which were compiled in the Survey Report on Needs Assessment (Chapter 2). The consultant team had the initial meeting with DMH to discuss the contents of their business plan on 17 October 2014, which was followed by a series of meetings on the matter on 11 May 2015, 16 June 2015, 15 October 2015, 29 January 2016, 1 April 2016, 20 May 2016, 27 June 2016 and 18 August 2016. In the meeting on 11 May 2015, DMH requested to consider the implementation of the Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR) as a part of its business plan. Therefore, the business plan of DMH was formulated based on both the results of the Needs Assessment survey and the review of MAPDRR. MAPDRR states several activities that should be undertaken by DMH; in some activities, DMH is assigned as lead agency, and in other activities positioned as supporting agency under the category of other government agencies. Since none of the activities stated in MAPDRR can be achieved by a sole organization because they need several types of expertise and responsibilities, coordination and corporation among agencies are required to implement MAPDRR. For example, landslides are one of the crucial issues in Myanmar, and the risk assessment of landslides requires scientific analysis based on meteorological and geological data to identify threshold values for early warnings. To further investigate the requirements for its business plan, an urgent questionnaire survey after Cyclone Komen was conducted to collect latest views on flood management activities, and a questionnaire survey on flood hazard maps was also conducted to reflect comments and suggestions for flood hazard mapping. Finally the following four priority topics were listed in the business plan for the improvement of DMH activities while recommendations in Chapter 8 present further suggestions on the activities of DMH. It should be noted that the business plan here is a general description of the following issues that need to be taken up by further studies for the investigation and formulation of implementation strategies.  Enhancement of meteorological and hydrological monitoring,  Utilization of satellite images,  Assessment and mitigation of landslide disaster risk, and  Risk reduction by a timeline plan.

1 Country report for 39th Session of Panel on Cyclone, WMO/PTC 39 session, Myanmar Country Report, DMH, 2012.

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6.2 Identification of Issues and Challenges of DMH 6.2.1 Review of MAPDRR The latest version of MAPDRR was published in 2012 by RRD. The Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) provided technical support for the development of the report. MAPDRR has seven main components and each of which has 4 to 13 projects (called “sub-component”) for implementation. One or more lead agencies and other relevant agencies have been listed for each project. DMH is responsible, solely or as one of the lead agencies, for three components: “Component 2: Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment”, “Component 3: Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems”, and “Component 4: Preparedness and Response Programs at National, State/Region, District and Township Levels”. Table 6.2.1, quoted from MAPDRR, shows the seven components of MAPDRR with the related action of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015 and the corresponding article of the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER). The table also shows the number of projects, or sub-components, under each component. DMH is also listed as one of other related agencies in “Component 7: Public Awareness, Education and Training”. Sub-components and activities are shown in Table 6.2.2, Table 6.2.3, Table 6.2.4 and Table 6.2.5.

Table 6.2.1 Seven Components of MAPDRR

DMH is mainly responsible for these three themes as a lead agency.

Reference: Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR), 2012 page 9

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Table 6.2.2 Component 2: Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (abstract from original) (MAPDRR, 2012) Sub- Estimated Priority Title Objectives Activities Expected Outcomes Lead Agency Other Govt. Agencies Potential Partners Components Duration H, M, L Vulnerability (1) To identify ·Development guidelines for comprehensive The risk and 3 years MDPA, RRD, Planning Dept., Dept. UNDP, UNOCHA, H and Risk vulnerability and multi-hazard vulnerability and risk assessment. vulnerability recorded, DMH, GAD, of Social Welfare, Fire MIMU, WFP, Assessment at risks at National · Design ToT courses on vulnerability and risk mapped and updated Livestock Services FAO, UNESCAP, various levels and regional levels assessment methodology. systematically and Breeding and Dept., Dept. of Health, UNICEF,MES, for more efficient regularly throughout the Fisheries Irrigation Dept., Dept. MGS, other UN planning country Department, of Development agencies and SLRD, Dept. of Affairs INGOs Agri. Planning, City Development Committees (2) To identify Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Risks and vulnerability in 3 years MDPA, RRD Dept. of Social UNDP, UNOCHA, H specific risks and ·Identify 4 pilot townships in Rakhine State to coastal region realized DMH, GAD Welfare, Fire Services MIMU, WFP, vulnerability conduct ToT programs. and understood to pave Dept., Irrigation Dept., FAO, UNESCAP, associated with ·Support trained facilitators to conduct more way for future DRR Dept. of Health (at all UNICEF, MES, coastal areas in training (2 trainings per township) at the interventions levels), MGS, NGOs, Myanmar community level. other UN agencies ·Support actual assessment practices as part of the and INGOs multiplier training. ·Prepare and produce draft township vulnerability maps based on raw data and findings. ·Prepare an expansion plan for training and 2.1 assessment. ·Specify time line for periodic assessment in the future. (3) To identify Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Delta Risks and vulnerability in 3 years MDPA, RRD, Dept. of Social UNDP, UNOCHA, H specific risks and · Identify 8 pilot townships in Ayeyarwady and Delta region realized and DMH, GAD Welfare, Fire Services MIMU, WFP, vulnerability Yangon Regions to conduct ToT programs. understood to pave way Dept., Irrigation Dept., FAO, associated with · Support trained facilitators to conduct more for future DRR Dept. of Health (at all UNESCAP, deltaic region in training (2 trainings per township) at the interventions levels), UNICEF, MES, Myanmar community level. MGS, NGOs, other · Support actual assessment practices as part of the UN agencies and multiplier training. INGOs · Prepare and produce draft township vulnerability maps based on raw data and findings. · Prepare an expansion plan for training and assessment. · Specify time line for periodic assessment in the future. (4) To identify Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Low-land Risks and vulnerability in 3 years MDPA, Dept. of Social UNDP, UNOCHA, H specific risks and Regions low-land regions realized RRD, Welfare, Fire Services MIMU, WFP, vulnerability · Identify 4 pilot townships (2 in Mandalay and 2 in and understood to pave DMH, Dept., Irrigation Dept., FAO, UNESCAP, associated with Bago way for future DRR GAD Dept. of Health (at all UNICEF, MES, low-land plain Regions) to conduct ToT programs. interventions levels) MGS, NGOs, other

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Sub- Estimated Priority Title Objectives Activities Expected Outcomes Lead Agency Other Govt. Agencies Potential Partners Components Duration H, M, L region in · Support trained facilitators to conduct more UN agencies and Myanmar training (2 trainings per township) at the INGOs community level. · Support actual assessment practices as part of the multiplier training. · Prepare draft township vulnerability maps · Prepare an expansion plan for training and assessment. · Specify time line for periodic assessment in the future. (5) To identify Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Hilly and Risks and vulnerability in 3 years MDPA, Social Welfare Dept., UNDP, UNOCHA, H specific risks and Mountainous Regions hilly and mountainous RRD, Fire Services Dept., MIMU, WFP, vulnerability · Identify 8 pilot townships (4 in Shan and 4 in regions realized and DMH, Irrigation Dept., FAO, UNESCAP, associated with Chin States) to conduct ToT program. understood to pave way GAD Health Dept. (at all UNICEF, MES, hilly regions in · Support trained facilitators to conduct more for future DRR levels) MGS, NGOs , Myanmar training (2 trainings per township, altogether 16 interventions other UN agencies trainings) at the community level. and INGOs · Support actual assessment practices as part of the multiplier training. · Prepare and produce draft township vulnerability maps based on raw data and findings. · Prepare an expansion plan for training and assessment. · Specify time line for periodic assessment in the future. 2.2 Hazard and To provide a · Create a database system for collected data under · An up to date atlas of 3 years DMH, Planning Dept., WFP, FAO, MES, M Vulnerability decision making 2.1. Myanmar produced Forest Dept., concerned govt. MGS, Non-Govt. Atlas of tool for planning · Make use of database developed and produce the · Planning and RRD, SLRD, agencies agencies, other UN Myanmar and development 1st draft of hazard and vulnerability Atlas at 4 development programs Local agencies and oriented activities different levels and scales: national, regional (4 development supported government INGOs regions of 2.1), district and township. 2.3 Landslide To study specify · Develop a plan to conduct field data collection in Landslide prone areas 2 years Public Works, DMH, Engineering FAO, MES, other M Hazard areas susceptible all landslide vulnerable areas and locations identified GAD, MGS Geology Dept. of UN agencies and Zonation Map to landslide hazard · Support the collection of data YTU INGOs in the country and · Revise the existing landslide hazard zonation map monitor · Design a database system hosted and maintained by MEC 2.4 Flood Risk Map To specify areas · Based on rainfall data and historical flood events, Flood risk map produced 2 years DMH, Irrigation Forest Dept., Dept. of MIMU, MES, H vulnerable to flood produce flood risk map for flood protection Dept., Dept. of Health, Settlement and MGS and other UN risk in the country · Develop a system for updating of map Water Resources Land Record agencies and and River Dept., DWRIRS INGOs System, SLRD, Local government 2.5 Drought Prone To identify · Review classification of drought prone areas Drought prone areas 3 years Dept. of DMH, Irrigation FAO, MIMU, M Area Map drought affected · Based on the rainfall pattern and historical data, indicated and mapped for Agricultural Dept., Dept. of Health MES, MGS, other

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Sub- Estimated Priority Title Objectives Activities Expected Outcomes Lead Agency Other Govt. Agencies Potential Partners Components Duration H, M, L areas in the produce the drought map drought mitigation Planning, Dry concerned agencies country purposes Zone, Greening Dept., Forest Dept., SLRD, Local government 2.6 Cyclone and To generate · Compile historical data to generate cyclone and Cyclone and storm surge 2 years DMH, SLRD, Irrigation Dept., Dept. MIMU, MES, H Storm Surge cyclone and storm storm surge map risk as an input to coastal Local of Health and other MGS and other Map surge maps for · Generate cyclone and storm surge inundation map development planning government concerned depts. concerned coastal areas agencies, other UN agencies and INGOs Reference: Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR), 2012

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Table 6.2.3 Component 3: Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems (abstract from original) (MAPDRR, 2012) Sub- Estimated Priority Title Objectives Activities Expected Outcomes Lead Agency Other Govt. Agencies Potential Partners Components Duration H, M, L 3.1 Upgradation of To upgrade the ·Identify and install instruments to further enhance · Upgraded early 4 years DMH, GAD, other concerned WMO, NGOs, other H Existing Early existing centers by technical capacity warning system MPT government agencies UN agencies and Warning instrumentation ·Train staff on interpretation and dissemination of INGOs Centers and early warning Capacity building 3.2 Multi-hazard To reduce the ·Orient concerned agencies on the existing EWS · Communication 2 years DMH, MPT, Ministry of Posts and UNDP, UNICEF, H End-to-End negative impacts ·Institutionalize interagency arrangements and network established to GAD, Telecommunications, LWF other NGOs, Early Warning of disasters coordination mechanism for better information expedite transmission of Region/State Ministry of other UN agencies Dissemination through capacity flow warning DPA Information, MRTV, and INGOs System building of at-risk ·Provide data communication equipment at · At-risk community RRD, other concerned communities to township level received warning on time government agencies prepare for and ·Formalize early warning dissemination mitigate disaster arrangements at all levels (Link to 3.1) risks 3.3 Improved To improve the ·Appraise existing weather observation stations Better forecasting 4 years DMH, Irrigation All universities and UN Agencies, PTC, H Meteorological observation and and identify additional needs provided Dept. technical universities, NGOs, other UN Observation and forecasting ·Installation of technical equipment all other concerned agencies and Forecasting capabilities ·Dialogues with international bodies for technical government agencies INGOs support 3.4 Enhanced Flood To enhance · Strengthen the involvement of agencies Township DP 3 years GAD, DMH, Concerned Depts., FAO and other UN M Monitoring and the flood other than DMH at the township level in flood committees can Irrigation Dept., Universities and Agencies, TICA, Forecasting monitoring and monitoring · Include flood monitoring in township understand and interpret DWRIRS technical bodies JICA, Capacities at forecasting DP committee’s formal roles the technical forecast KOICA, NGOs, Township capacity of · In 16 flood prone townships (3 each in Rakhine, information and other UN agencies Levels township Ayeyarwady, Sagaing, Kachin and Mandalay, 1 in undertake monitoring and INGOs meteorology and Thanintharyi) work effectively during hydrology officers · Conduct orientation workshops for Township DP flood season and the DP Committees on flood forecasts committees · Plan for extension of capacity building activity · In Flash Flood prone areas, it will be also covered 3.5 Landslide Study To provide data · Identify a suitable landslide modeling system for Landslide monitoring 3 years Engineering DMH, all universities FAO and other UN M and Monitoring and information Myanmar capacity improved Geology and technical Agencies, Myanmar on landslide · Install the modeling software with the technical Department of universities, other Earthquake hazard to the assistance from internal bodies YTU, GAD, concerned Government Committee, NGOs, community at · Link it with database developed under project 2.3 Public Works, Depts., Forest other UN agencies stake · Develop multi-agency information dissemination MES, MGS Department and INGOs system (link to 3.1 and 3.2) 3.6 Drought Study To reduce the · Establish a standardized system for declaration of Planning for agriculture 2 years Forest Dept., all universities and FAO, UNESCAP, M and Monitoring negative impacts drought and food security DMH, Irrigation technical universities, other UN Agencies, of drought through · Set up a coordination mechanism among supported through data Dept., Dept. of concerned government International effective drought concerned agencies for drought monitoring and information on Agri. Planning, bodies Agencies, monitoring · Data collected from monitoring missions can be drought Dry zone fed into drought map (Link to 2.5) Greening Dept.

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Sub- Estimated Priority Title Objectives Activities Expected Outcomes Lead Agency Other Govt. Agencies Potential Partners Components Duration H, M, L 3.7 Cyclone To obtain concise · Set up weather monitoring and tracking system Constant monitoring of 4 years DMH Universities and UN Agencies, PTC, H Tracking and and timely cyclone (Radar at Kyauk Phyu and Yangon) cyclone and its technical bodies International Storm Surge and storm surge · Develop a GIS based the Storm Surge Modeling associated risks during Agencies, other Forecasts information software at Early Warning Center monsoon season concerned agencies · Establish a 24X 7 monitoring system (link to 3.1 achieved and 3.2) 3.9 Oceanic and To detect any · Install sea level gauge devices at key location Any sudden change in 2 years DMH MPT, concerned IOC, UNESCAP, M Tsunami abnormal along coast sea level detected government agencies, other UN Agencies, Monitoring fluctuations of the · Establish a communication network for immediately and warning Universities and MGS, ADPC, System sea level for transmission of real time data to go directly to issued for necessary technical universities NGOs, other UN issuance of timely multi-hazard Early precautionary actions agencies and warnings Warning Centre (3.1) INGOs 3.10 Forest Fire and To observe the · Install a GIS based forest fire and haze Suitable Action Plan 2 years MOECAF, Fire Services Dept., UNEP, Sentinel M Haze forest fire and monitoring system at Forest Dept. revised/developed with Forest Dept., other concerned Asia, Monitoring haze incidents and · Provide data to Early Warning Centre (3.1) linkages to climate DMH, Dept. of government agencies ASEAN, NGOs , System trends in the · Revise National Haze Action, if required change adaptation Occupational Universities and other UN agencies country · Design and deliver trainings, in 5 townships each Health technical universities and INGOs in Chin and Shan to the community and NGOs on forest fire prevention · Awareness raising activities on forest fire and haze problems · Establish linkages with regional organizations such as ASEAN, Scientific Monitoring Centre, Singapore and Global Environment Center, Malaysia Reference: Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR), 2012

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Table 6.2.4 Component 4: Preparedness and Response Programs at National, State/Region, District and Township Levels (abstract from original) (MAPDRR, 2012) Priority Sub- Estimated Title Objectives Activities Expected Outcomes Lead Agency Other Govt. Agencies Potential Partners H, M, Components Duration L Cyclone To enhance the · Study Cyclone Preparedness Program in Adequate preparedness and 3 years Relief and Township DP UNDP, UNOCHA, H Contingency capacity of the Bangladesh as a model mitigation activities are Resettlement Agencies, MoAI, PTC, UNICEF, and Program for coastal · Conduct feasibility studies in 5 townships identified and undertaken Department, Ministry of Health, other UN Agencies, Delta and communities to each in Ayeyarwady, Rakhine, Mon, Bago DMH, GAD and other JEN, MRCS, Coastal Region prepare for, and Yangon to identify key areas of needs State/Region concerned Govt. ADPC, JICA, Other response to and · Design and formulate Preparedness Plan Disaster agencies International recover from based on existing Action Plan Preparedness bodies, other UN 4.6 cyclone impacts · Form community volunteer groups and Agencies agencies and provide trainings (search and rescue, INGOs warning dissemination, etc. with link to 3.2) · Based on this experience, develop a program to extend the assistance to other vulnerable townships in coastal areas to develop cyclone preparedness plans Flood To enhance · Awareness generated at Township and · Flood Preparedness and 3 Years Ministry of Relief and UN Agencies, preparedness capacity of Community levels on flood risk reduction Mitigation Plan developed Agriculture Resettlement NGOs, MRCS and and mitigation Township through various activities such as Awareness for 10 prioritized townships and Department, DMH, other development in flood prone authorities and raising workshops, school campaign, and 30 communities Irrigation, GAD, State/Regional agencies, other UN areas Community of community billboard/information materials · Capacity building activities Local authorities agencies and selected flood on Do’s and Don’ts on flood for pilot Township government INGOs prone areas on · Capacity building activities for pilot authorities and Communities flood Township authorities and Communities on on Township and preparedness and Township and Community specific Flood Community specific Flood mitigation Preparedness and Mitigation Plan Preparedness and Mitigation · Training on flood response in pilot Plan communities · Training on flood response 4.10 · Mock drills on flood response to check in pilot communities preparedness and improve plan · Mock drills on flood · Standard Operation Procedure for flood response to check response for community level teams preparedness and improve · Support community level flood response plan team by providing basic flood rescue · Standard Operation equipment Procedure for flood response for community level teams · Support community level flood response team by providing basic flood rescue equipment Reference: Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR), 2012

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Table 6.2.5 Component 7: Public Awareness, Education and Training (abstract from original) (MAPDRR, 2012) Priority Sub- Estimated Title Objectives Activities Expected Outcomes Lead Agency Other Govt. Agencies Potential Partners H, M, Components Duration L Special To educate the · Prepare and publish public awareness materials (posters The public kept aware of 3 Years MSWRR DMH, MoI, Dept. of UNDP, UNEP, FAO, M Awareness general public on and booklets) on emerging issues such as climate change up-to-date issues and trends Health, Dept. of WHO, UNFPA, WFP, Program emerging issues in and livestock management Traditional Medicine, UNICEF and NGOs, association with · Test the materials at the community level in 3 MoAI, MOECAF, MRCS, other UN DRR Townships in Mandalay and 3 in Ayeyarwady and Ministry of Transport, agencies and INGOs 7.8 undertake revision as required Ministry of Education, · Print and distribute the materials Ministry of Information · Carry out follow up visits to monitor the usefulness of and other concerned the materials and for periodic updating process ministries · Television series and radio talk on public awareness Regional To create a platform · Develop a website where DRR experiences of ASEAN Regular information sharing 4 years MSWRR, Dept. DMH, Forest Dept. UNDP, WHO, FAO, M Networking and for countries in the countries are uploaded between Asian countries of Health, Dept. UNOCHA, ESCAP, Knowledge region to share their · Jointly hosted by RD, Dept. of Health, ASEAN, UNDP made possible with regards of Traditional UNAIDS, UNICEF, 7.11 Sharing on experiences and and ADPC in 1st year to DRR initiatives Medicine ADPC, ASEAN, Disaster Risk learn from each · Establish a system for regular updating of website Bi-lateral Agencies and Reduction other · Extend the website content to cover other Asian other interested countries (outside ASEAN) agencies Reference: Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR), 2012

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The actions of DMH that are expected to be further improved and enhanced for the implementation of MAPDRR are categorized as below. Table 6.2.6 shows the corresponding sub-components of MAPDRR. (1) Meteorological and hydrological monitoring (2) Flood/storm surge forecasting (3) Dissemination of information (warnings) (4) Hazard assessment (5) Flood/coastal flood hazard mapping (6) Joint activities with other agencies (e.g. landslide study)

Table 6.2.6 Necessary Actions for the Implementation of MAPDRR Corresponding No. Activities of DMH Sub-component Description of MAPDRR Meteorological and hydrological information is essential Meteorological and in disaster risk reduction, and therefore a monitoring 3.1, 3.3, 3.4, system should be well arranged to comprehend upcoming 1 hydrological 3.7, 3.9 situations appropriately. Past accumulated meteorological monitoring and hydrological data are also indispensable for risk assessment to identify future risk. The current flood forecasting of DMH is conducted mainly based on the interrelation between upstream and downstream water levels. Flood forecasting using a Flood/storm surge 3.1, 3.3, 3.4, hydrological simulation model with meteorological and 2 forecasting 3.7 hydrological data can improve forecasting accuracy and ensure a sufficient lead time for disaster risk reduction activities. Storm surge forecasting will be implemented utilizing a weather radar system. A reliable system for disseminating information, Dissemination of especially warnings, is necessary to ensure smooth 3 3.1, 3.2, 3.4 evacuation of local residents and assist local governments information (warning) in undertaking actions of preparedness, response and recovery. Hazard assessment provides information on location, intensity, frequency and probability of an expected hazard. In the case of a flood hazard, inundation area, depth and period should be assessed based on rainfall 2.1, 2.2, (2.3), data, which is part of the responsibilities of DMH. 2.4, (2.5), 2.6, Hazard information is a basis for disaster risk assessment 4 Hazard assessment (3.5), 3.6, 3.10, to identify exposed items in a possible affected area. The 4.6, (4.10), vulnerability of each exposed item should be assessed to (7.8), (7.11) evaluate disaster risk. As such, hazard assessment is the first step for the disaster risk assessment, and information on both hazards and disaster risk is indispensable to develop a strategy for disaster risk reduction. Flood/coastal flood hazard maps are a useful tool to show expected inundation areas and depth for people and Flood/coastal flood 2.4, 2.6, 4.6, organizations concerned, which are basic information for 5 (4.10), (7.8), evacuation and development of strategies for hazard mapping (7.11) preparedness, response and recovery. DMH is responsible for producing hazard maps using meteorological and hydrological information.

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Corresponding No. Activities of DMH Sub-component Description of MAPDRR While meteorological and hydrological hazard assessment is part of the responsibilities of DMH, risk assessment of landslides triggered by heavy precipitation Joint activities with requires different expertise of soil mechanics and erosion (2.3), (2.5), control engineering. Drought risk assessment also 6 other agencies (e.g. (3.5), 3.6, 3.10 involves expertise of other areas for analyzing landslide study) socio-economic activities to check the balance between supply and demand. As such, some types of risk assessment require cooperation with other agencies that hold different expertise. Note: The numbers in parentheses indicate that DMH is a related agency for those sub-components in MAPDRR.

6.2.2 Findings from the Cyclone Komen in 2015 (1) Urgent questionnaire survey results In order to clarify the needs of DMH during a large-scale disaster and to understand actual activities of organizations relevant to flood risk assessment, the consultant team conducted an urgent questionnaire survey regarding Cyclone Komen, which hit Myanmar in July-August 2015. The questionnaire survey investigated issues on emergency response of each relevant organization to the cyclone in order to understand their activities, difficulties, damage information, data acquisition, and necessary data before, during and after the flood. Based on the collected answers, the needs for DMH were analyzed. In urgent questionnaire survey, DMH and member organizations of the implementation network of TA-8456 Part II were responded to the following questions:

1. What kind of activities did your organization do during this year’s flood event caused by Cyclone Komen? 2. What kind of difficulties and issues did your organization face during this year’s flood event caused by Cyclone Komen? 3. What kind of damage information did your organization collect during this year’s flood caused by Cyclone Komen? 4. What kinds of data/information were important for your organization for smooth flood disaster management and could your organization get such information during this year’s flood event caused by Cyclone Komen? 5. What kind of data/information did your organization get from other organizations during this year’s flood event caused by Cyclone Komen? 6. What kinds of data/information were required more for your organization for flood disaster management during this year’s flood event caused by Cyclone Komen?

Based on the responses to the questionnaire survey from Implementation Network Members, important issues for further improvement in flood management activities in Myanmar are summarized as follows:

[Observation and Monitoring]  Hydro-meteorological data were not available in some areas during Cyclone Komen due to lack of observation stations, and early warnings were not issued in some vulnerable areas due to lack

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of observation data.  Hydro-meteorological information should be provided on time.  Hydrological observation should be made not only for water level but also high flow velocity and discharge during a flood.  All hydro-meteorological observation data of DMH as well as those owned by other organizations such as ID should be made easily accessible by other organizations without cost.

[Flood Forecasting and Warning System and Dissemination System]  People living in some flood-prone areas could not receive weather information and warning information issued by DMH due to a poor telecommunication system and power outage during the flood.  Weather information including forecasted information, real-time water level and rainfall data, dam release data, etc. should be disseminated on time.  Hydro-meteorological information, advisories and warnings need to be issued on time with more accuracy.  In addition to weather forecast information, dissemination of information to possible inundation areas is also necessary for smooth flood disaster management.

[Flood Hazard Mapping]  A flood hazard map is necessary for prior arrangement of a preparation plan and disaster management.

[Capacity Development]  Drills and training activities to prepare for floods is also necessary before actual events.

[Flood Hazard and Disaster Damage Data Collection]  Data/information on the extent of damage and loss are required for flood disaster management.  Data/information on the status of reconstruction and recovery are also required for flood disaster management.

[Information Sharing/Coordination]  Weather information, observation data, information on flood hazard areas and dam release data should be shared among related organizations.

[Other Issues]  Other issues identified through the questionnaire survey on flood disaster management are described as follows:  Disrupted transportation systems due to damage to roads and bridges during flooding  Drinking water shortage due to damage to wells and lakes during flooding  Disrupted telecommunication and power transmission systems

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 Health problems  Budget limitations  Insufficient social information such as population and household data  Poor arrangement and preparation for similar natural disasters anticipated in the future

The member organizations of the Implementation Network of TA-8456 Part II recognized that DMH could play an important role in the provision of basic meteorological and hydrological observation data and weather forecast information. They need such data for their activities, as well as estimated flood inundation maps.

(2) Necessity of utilizing satellite images for rapid assessment of landslides Heavy rainfall may trigger landslides in hilly and mountainous areas, especially in the western part of Myanmar. Actually, large landslides occurred due to heavy rainfall by Cyclone Komen in 2015, which created a large landslide dam in the Sagaing Region. Figure 6.2.1 shows the location of the landslide dam observed by PALSAR-2 (provided by JAXA). The consultant team made a rough estimation of the storage volume of the landslide dam reservoir based on the observed surface area from satellite images. With the images from PALSAR-2 and global surface elevation data from ASTER-GDEM, the storage volume of a landslide dam can be roughly estimated. Table 6.2.7 shows the results of the estimated storage volume and its temporal development. Satellite products can be helpful for disaster management in Myanmar. The Sentinel Asia2 project has currently been providing disaster related information obtained by satellites to their constituent member countries through the internet. Myanmar is an associate member of Sentinel Asia. In order to acquire hazard information in a short time, satellite images can be a strong tool in disaster management activities.

2 Sentinel Asia: https://sentinel.tksc.jaxa.jp/sentinel2/topControl.jsp

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August 9, 2015 September 6, 2015

1 1

3 3 2 2

(C)JAXA (C)JAXA Data source: JAXA.

Figure 6.2.1 Satellite Images Indicating the Formation of a Natural Dam in 2015

Table 6.2.7 Estimated storage volume of the landslide dam Estimated Storage Volume (m3) Surface Area (ha) Difference Difference No. *ASTER-GDEM (ha) (m3) Aug 9 Sep 6 Aug 9 Sep 6 1 10.71 20.52 9.81 2,990,000 9,800,000 6,810,000 2 3.61 7.59 3.98 830,000 2,250,000 1,420,000 3 1.95 3.05 1.11 170,000 290,000 120,000

Landslide Dam 1 Estimated storage area on 9th September Without landslide dam

Data source: ASTER GDEM, resolution 30m Data source: ASTER GDEM, resolution 30m Figure 6.2.2 Estimation of the Storage Area by Topographic Analysis

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6.2.3 Review of Needs Assessment According to the results of the needs assessment for DMH, the following suggestions are made.

1. System and technology (Flood forecasting and warning)  Data sharing with other organizations;  Establishment of a data management center;  Installation of automatic weather stations (AWS);  Upgrading the existing observation stations;  Capacity building on hydrological/hydraulic models; and  Improvement of the warning messages with understandable information using graphics and figures. (Flood hazard mapping)  Review and improvement of training for flood hazard mapping  Cooperation with local governments for data collection;  Collect local disaster data; and  Systematic hazard analysis. (Operation and maintenance)  Establish rules and regulations on O&M;  Training of officers for O&M;  Allocation of a regular budget for O&M; and  Establishment of a regular maintenance scheme. (Equipment and facilities for Headquarters and field offices)  Constant review of the current system for improvement.

2. Human resources (Knowledge and technical skills)  Review of the current knowledge and technical skills and identification of issues for improvement to fulfill the roles and responsibilities of DMH;  Establishment and enhancement of continuous training programs;  Introduction of advanced hydrological and hydraulic modeling; and  Participation in training held by international organizations. (Experience)  Review of required field experience and development of strategies to gain such experiences. (Qualification)  Identification of required knowledge; and

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 Provide training programs for officers to supplement knowledge through certificate courses, hands-on training and on-the-job training.

3. Institutional setup (Roles and responsibility)  Identification of important actions to fulfill the roles and responsibilities of DMH. (Organizational structure)  Review of the current human resources and formulation of future plans; and  Review and enhancement of the functions of regional DMH. (Budget)  Review of the current budget allocation and future prospect for activities in short-term and long-term plans. (Planning)  Identification of short-term and long-term targets. (Liaison)  Review and enhancement of the current coordination and collaboration mechanisms;  Clarification and regular review of responsibilities, roles and tasks of relevant organizations;  Examination and enhancement of the communication system with relevant organizations and identification of issues/problems; and  Examination and enhancement of the communication systems with communities and identification of issues/problems (Training of officers)  Enhancement of the consecutive training scheme; and  Enhancement of hands-on and on-the-job training. (Publications)  Review and enhancement of publication of flood report forms, methodology etc.

6.2.4 Other Related Projects The donor coordination conference was held in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, on 1-2 October 2015, which was jointly organized by DMH of Myanmar, WMO, JICA, World Bank/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. The conference aimed at facilitating the dialogue among donors and development partners involved in implementing or designing projects in order to support the DMH for better information exchange, to avoid duplication of efforts, to maximize synergies between on-going/planned activities, and to ensure capacity building needed to translate all efforts into sustainably enhanced operational services. Donors and development partners participated in the conference from the following ten organizations:  Asia Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)  International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)/ADB TA-8456  Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)  Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA)  Met Office, UK  Norwegian Meteorological Institute (NMI)

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 Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)  Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)  World Bank Group/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (WBG/GFDRR)  World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

From the government of Myanmar, in addition to the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), representatives participated in the conference from the following ministries:  Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation  Ministry of Energy  Ministry of Health  Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement  Ministry of Transport

In the conference, all the organizations of the donors and development partners introduced their ongoing or planned projects which support DMH. Some important projects, which are related to formulation of the business plan of DMH, are described below. After the closure of TA-8456, all the outcomes are expected to be utilized for the promotion of other projects to create synergies as an outreach process.

1. Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (Funded by World Bank): This five-year project, “Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (2015-2020),” which is funded by World Bank, has three components. The first component is the establishment of Hydro Informative Center, and the third component is dredging for navigation. DMH is related to the second component, which is modernization of hydro met services. The components planned for the modernization program to support DMH are described below:

A. Institutional and regulatory strengthening, capacity building and implementation support of DMH: A.1 Institutional strengthening and development of a legal and regulatory framework A.2 DMH capacity building and training A.3 System design and integration, component management and monitoring

B. Modernization of observing infrastructure, data management systems and forecasting: B.1 Technical modernization of the observation networks B.2 Modernization of DMH data management, communication, IT and forecasting systems B.3 Development of a strategy for numerical prediction and establishment of a numerical analysis and prediction center capable of retrieving and analyzing numerical products from various sources (WMO global and regional centers) and utilizing these products for local prediction B.4 Reconstruction and refurbishment of offices

C. Enhancement of the DMH service delivery system: C.1 Creation of a service delivery platform and improvement of weather and hydrological services for the public, DRM, water resources, agriculture, irrigation, media, civil aviation, navigation, health and energy C.2 Support for DRM operations including expansion of an “end-to-end” early warning system based on impact forecasts in two to three medium sized river basins with flash floods C.3 Development of a pilot framework for agriculture and climate advisory services (ACAS) C.4 Development of a national framework for climate services

2. The Project for Establishment of an End-to-End Early Warning System for Natural Disasters

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(Funded by JICA) The implementation period of this project is April 2014 to March 2017 and the main objectives are as follows:  Enhancement of meteorological and hydrological monitoring capacities for the generation of long-lead, location-specific flood forecasts  Development of flood forecast models for Chindwin, Ayeyarwady and Sittoung basins  Development of a decision support system (DSS) to communicate relevant, long-lead, location-specific flood risk information

3. Grant Project for Weather Radars and AWSs (Funded by JICA) The implementation period of this project is 2013 to 2017. The main aim of this project is establishment of a disastrous weather monitoring system: (i) installation of 3 radars in Kyaukphyu (completed), Mandalay (under construction), and Yangon (completed) (ii) installation of 30 automatic weather observation systems (completed).

6.3 Proposed Business Plan According to the results of the needs assessment for DMH and expected actions of DMH stated in MAPDRR, challenges which should be undertaken by DMH were identified. MAPDRR states the expected roles of DMH: 1) meteorological and hydrological monitoring; 2) flood/storm surge forecasting; 3) dissemination of information (warnings); 4) hazard assessment; 5) flood/coastal flood hazard mapping; and 6) joint activities with other agencies (e.g. landslide study). These items are also recognized by DMH for further improvement in the activities of DMH. The needs assessment identified the above challenges except for joint activities with other agencies because this area is a new challenge that requires more investigation to identify methodologies to enhance effectiveness. Based on the needs assessment, MAPDRR, and issues identified in the activities of this TA, four topics are focused in the business plan through the consultation with DMH. 1) Firstly, since this TA aims to enhance the capacity of DMH in meteorological and hydrological analysis and simulation modeling for flood risk assessment, establishment and enhancement of the effective environment for DMH to fulfill its duties is the first concern; therefore enhancement of the meteorological and hydrological monitoring system is addressed in the business plan. 2) Secondly, with regard to the disasters caused by Cyclone Komen, difficulties of data acquisition at remote places was highlighted, especially considering the occurrence of landslide dams near Kale; therefore utilization of satellite information is addressed as an urgent topic that complements the limitation of the current system. 3) Thirdly, since landslides triggered by heavy precipitation due to Cyclone Komen caused many disasters last year, the need for strengthening the cooperative schemes among organizations concerned has been widely recognized to develop risk assessment and contingency planning, which is a new challenge for not only DMH but also organizations concerned. Therefore a recommendation is made for the concerned organizations to introduce Japanese experience and activities. 4) Lastly, different from earthquakes, a flood develops over time and can be foreseen to some extent, allowing people a certain amount of time for preparation before it actually attack the area; the route of a cyclone can be forecasted, and prospective river discharge can be simulated. Therefore it will be beneficial to prepare a contingency plan according to a simulated flood scenario by identifying required actions at each stage before, during and after the flood. In this effort, a timeline of actions should be created to visualize the sequence of necessary actions. This will help disaster management personnel prevent overlooking scheduled actions and execute proper actions

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at a proper timing, maximizing the effectiveness of cooperation among organizations for disaster risk reduction activities. Hazard information provided by DMH is a basis of this activity and therefore “timeline” planning should be introduced in the business plan as one of the strong tools for flood disaster risk reduction.

These four topics need urgent attention from DMH and other organizations concerned; therefore, they are prioritized in the business plan. The first two topics (6.3.1 Enhancement of meteorological and hydrological monitoring, 6.3.2 Utilization of satellite image) are to be promoted under the leadership of DMH, while the remaining two topics (6.3.3 Assessment and mitigation of landslide disaster risk, 6.3.4 Risk reduction by a timeline plan) require the formulation of a cooperative scheme among organizations concerned, which are new challenges in Myanmar.

6.3.1 Enhancement of Meteorological and Hydrological Monitoring Meteorological and hydrological monitoring provides essential information for water related disaster risk reduction and water resources management targeting floods, droughts, debris flows and water quality issues. For instance, real-time monitoring can contribute to efficient and effective flood forecasting and warning for smooth evacuation, and observed data with a decent level of quality, quantity and duration are used for developing meteorological and hydrological models (i.e., parameter tuning) and planning flood management strategies (i.e., setting up a target flood scale by statistical analysis and evaluating the effectiveness of preventive investment measures). (1) Current conditions There is urgent need for improvement of the monitoring system of DMH. Table 6.3.1 shows the current equipment and infrastructure for meteorological and hydrological monitoring.

Table 6.3.1 Summary of DMH’s Equipment and Infrastructures Items Current Condition (as of April 2016) [Hydrology Division] - 4 desktop computers used for data entry. Computer and other - Officers use laptop computers for their work. IT equipment - High spec computers are not available. - Two printers and one plotter (the plotter is out of order) - Only free software/programs are available for the staff to use. Software/Programs - ArcGIS software with proper license is required.

Office - There is no server in the office to store and manage collected data. Data Management - All observed data are managed in excel file in one desktop computer in Server Hydrology Division. - Collected data are stored in Yangon Office storage on a hard copy basis. - The building of the warning center is located within the property; however the Warning Centre center does not have a room designated for emergency operation. - 30 hydrological stations (discharge measurement is carried out with propeller-type current meters) - 63 meteorological stations - 39 meteorology and hydrology stations - 17 agrometeorological stations Observation - 8 aeronautical meteorological offices Stations - 2 tide gauge stations

Infrastructure - 5 telemetry water level stations at Hinthada of Ayeyarwady River, Toungoo of Sittoung River, Hpaan n of Thanlwin River, Shwegyin of Shwegyin River and Bago of Bago River. (15 more stations to be installed during 2014-2015) *Telemetry stations cannot deliver observed data on time, due to poor internet

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Items Current Condition (as of April 2016) connection and instability of sensors. - Data transfer to other stations is done with transceiver conversation from local stations to central DMH

- 3 radars (2 of them are under construction using Japanese Grant Aid) - 30 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) using Japan Grant Aid (Telemetry System)

Total rainfall stations: 132 (63 + 39 + 30) including AWS (Density: approx. 5,100km2/station) Total water level gauges: 74 (30 + 39 +5) Total tidal gauges: 2 ‐ There is no written rules for maintenance

[Forecasting Station] @ 4 major river basins - Ayeyarwady: 15 stations - Chindwin: 5 stations - Sittaung: 2 stations - Thanlwin: 1 station Observation - One weather radar in Kyaukpyu Stations: Weather - Two weather radars in Yangon and Mandalay are under construction. radar Satellite data Satellite rainfall data are not much utilized for DMH’s work. - Water level observation: 3 times/day (6:30 am, 12:30 pm and 18:30 pm). - Rainfall observation: once a day (9:30 am) - Synoptic observation (temperature, humidity, wind profile (direction and Observation velocity), rainfall, etc.) at some stations: 5 times/day (6:30 am, 9:30 am, Frequency 12:30 pm, 15:30 pm and 18:30 pm). In case of severe weather or flooding, hourly observation will start to monitor the water level. - The observed data are transmitted mainly by telephone or Single Side Band (SSB) transceiver. - Headquarters officers receive and record data in a form before entering in excel sheets and “G06” software (data management software for water levels, Data Management discharges and sediment discharges) in a desktop computer at Hydrology Division. - The quality check of data is performed using a graphical method and their experience.

Observation and data Management - Observed data are mainly utilized for forecasting and warning research at DMH and other organizations and departments for various projects and work Data Utilization in Myanmar. - Other organizations collect data similar to DMH, but only a limited amount of data is shared.

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According to the current conditions of DMH, the main challenges are listed below:

(a) Arrangement of Meteorological and Hydrological Stations The current density of meteorological stations (approx. 5,100km2/station) is low, considering the entire country area of 677,000km2, especially in the mountain areas. Table 6.3.2 shows the standard density of meteorological stations recommended by WMO. In order to comprehend and analyze weather conditions and improve flood forecasting, more meteorological stations are recommended to be installed together with the fully utilization of weather radars currently under installation.

Table 6.3.2 Recommended Minimum Densities of Stations (area in km2 per station)

Source: Guide to Hydrological Practices Volume I, World Meteorological Organization WMO-No.168

The locations of hydrological stations should be decided considering the necessity for river management, river planning and river improvement. Possible locations that require a hydrological station include those downstream of a junction of rivers, where water management facilities exist, around populated areas, where the topographic features of a river drastically change, and near ponds, lakes and river mouths. Hydrological stations are also important for measurement of river discharge and creation of H-Q curves, so it is desirable that stations for discharge measurement should be located where a river flow is not meandering or affected by a local irregular flow, but where the river cross section is stable and regular and high flow measurement can be conducted easily without danger. Tidal data are indispensable for analyzing the effect caused by cyclones and tsunamis. Although DMH is responsible for issuing cyclone and storm surge maps, cyclone tracking, storm surge forecasting, and developing an oceanic and tsunami monitoring system as defined in MAPDRR (2012), DMH observes tide levels only at two stations. Therefore, DMH needs to improve its tide information system by establishing a cooperative framework with MPA and installing new tide level stations.

(b) Observation Method Measurement of rainfall and water levels is conducted mainly by manual reading in Myanmar. Reliability and accuracy of observed values depend on skills and experience of surveyors. When a large flood occurs in the night-time, observation is sometimes not performed for surveyors’ safety. Therefore, automatic recorders should be employed. DMH’s monitoring system also needs improvement. Data transfer from local stations to the central DMH still depends on daily transceiver conversation. DMH staff are assigned to stay and observe at all stations.

(c) High Flow Measurement Discharge measurement is carried out with propeller-type current meters, which are difficult to use to

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measure high flow directly. Since high flow measurement, especially during peak discharge, is important to develop rating curves (H-Q curves), high flow measurement should be introduced to improve the accuracy of hydrological analysis.

(d) Utilization of Weather Radars One weather radar station has already been installed at Kyaupyu, and two weather radar stations are under construction at Yangon and Mandalay using Japan Grant Aid as of May 2016. Information from these weather radars can provide dense information of rainfall, which contributes to the improvement of hydrological simulation models and its results.

(e) Efficient Data Management Observed data from both hydrological and meteorological stations are recorded manually on a paper form first except for 5 telemetry water level stations and newly installed 30 automatic weather stations. Such data are manually inputted in the computer. Because those stations are chronically understaffed, not all data are arranged in electric form immediately after observation and some are always left unprocessed, which is a bottleneck in formulating simulation models and conducting risk analysis.

(f) Operation and Maintenance (O & M) There are no rules specifically written for the maintenance of equipment. Little budget is provided for maintenance, and no basic plan is made for regular maintenance and updating of the equipment.

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Figure 6.3.1 Location of Meteorological and Hydrological Stations

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(2) Proposal on improvement plans Improvement plans for enhancement of the existing monitoring system are proposed as listed below corresponding to the issues mentioned in the previous section.

(a) Improvement of monitoring network 1) Enhancement of the monitoring system  Assess the current allocation of hydrological and meteorological stations, and install additional stations in areas with fewer observations (e.g., hilly and mountain areas to evaluate rainfall in the catchment area of a river basin, areas vulnerable to landslides and debris flows). Utilization of weather radars for covering wider observation area is important and should be incorporated in the designing of a monitoring system.  Install automatic water level recorders near river mouths to observe tidal levels (see Chapter 3).  Increase the number of telemetry stations for the smooth transmission of real-time information and data to computers, which is essential in flood forecasting and hydrological simulation modeling.

2) Enhancement of existing flood forecasting system  Improve the current flood forecasting method based on the enhancement of the monitoring system (refer to 1)). DMH conducts flood forecasting by mainly using correlations of water levels observed at upstream and downstream locations. This method is simple and effective in large river basins. However, it cannot consider the influences on runoff by rapid basin developments, unexpected climate conditions and variations of river cross section, etc. Therefore, in addition to the existing method, flood forecasting by using hydrological models (for instance RRI Model, IFAS etc.) is recommended.

3) Implementation of field survey 3-1) High flow measurement  Conduct high-flow measurement to observe flood discharge during flood events. High-flow measurement is critical to observe peak discharge and develop H-Q curves, which are essential in flood management planning. Two methods are available for this measurement: float measurement and use of Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP).

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Source: Illustrated Guide to Hydrological Observation, ICHARM, PWRI, Japan, 2006.3

Illuminated float

Photo: CTI Engineering Co.,Ltd, Japan Photo: Kamiyama. Co.,Ltd. www.kamiyama-seisakusyo.com/

Figure 6.3.2 Float Measurement for High flow

[Float measurement] Float measurement is mainly employed for discharge measurement in Japan because it is simple but reliable and economical. Since this method requires certain structures such as a bridge to drop the float to measure the distribution of velocity over the cross section, a practical place should be identified preliminarily, in which the safety of surveyors are ensured. A structure may be installed across the river for high flow measurement in some cases as necessary.

Photo: CTI Engineering Co.,Ltd Japan Data Source: Illustrated Guide to Hydrological Observation, ICHARM, PWRI, Japan, 2006.3

Figure 6.3.3 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP)

[Acoustic Doppler Current Profiles (ADCP)] ADCPs are a type of flow velocity meter. ADCPs have sonar to measure a velocity of suspended solids, and can estimate 3-dimensional flow velocities and directions. ADCP can also measure a river bed profile using its sonar. ADCPs are typically applied to large rivers,

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especially in downstream areas, because they can measure velocity a few hundred meters deep at once, and also can observe complicated flow directions in a river which are affected by sea tide. 3-2) River cross section measurement  River cross section measurement is fundamental in evaluating the flow capacity of a river. The change of river cross section directly affects flow capacity and H-Q curves; therefore periodical measurement of river cross section is required especially at hydrological stations for H-Q curves. 4) Introduction of a maintenance plan and securement of maintenance budget  A maintenance plan should be developed to keep facilities in good condition, which is essential to maintain the quality of observed data. The existing condition should be investigated first and a maintenance plan should be developed together with the estimation of a budget required for maintenance.

(b) Establishment of Integrated Data Management In general, Integrated Data Management (IDM) is a system to facilitate data management and improve data services. The purposes of IDM are listed below:  Improvement of accessibility of archived data  Improvement of data quality and quantity by adopting observation criteria  Enhancement of the cooperative framework among organizations which have their own meteorological and hydrological monitoring system  Effective management of the monitoring network (unified data accumulation system)

Implementation of the integrated data management by DMH can provide efficient meteorological and hydrological services as follows:  Stored meteorological and hydrological data are utilized for formulation of a flood management plan.  Once observation criteria such as a standardized recording form are introduced, it will be easy to share information among stakeholders especially for international rivers, which contributes to enhance cooperation among stakeholders for water resources management and flood disaster risk reduction.  Awareness of flood disasters can be increased by timely dissemination of meteorological and hydrological information to local residents.

Figure 6.3.4 shows data management by the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) in Thailand. The RID data center integrates meteorological and hydrological observed data and distributes them to relevant organizations of Thailand. Establishment of IDM will contribute to smooth operation of DMH work and will assist other organizations in carrying out their duties. Figure 6.3.5 shows the website of the National Land with Water Information Data Management Center, Japan. In the website, information on rainfall, water level, water discharge and water quality are available for rivers all over Japan. Information on environmental conditions and past disaster records is also available.

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Figure 6.3.4 Example of Data Management by Royal Irrigation Department (RID), Thailand

Figure 6.3.5 Example of Data Management by National Land with Water Information Data Management Center (https://www5.river.go.jp/)

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(c) Enhancement of Administration of DMH Since no legitimate rules are established for meteorological and hydrological monitoring in Myanmar, there are concerns that, in the future, different international donors or projects could provide monitoring equipment and manage observation differently at the same sites for their own purposes. For this, DMH is expected to lead the arrangement and management of meteorological and hydrological monitoring and formulate standard Three rainfall gauges were installed at monitoring specifications such as “Guide on same site by different projects. Meteorological Monitoring,” which specifies meteorological or hydrological equipment and methodologies in order to use investments from Source: the consultant team international donors (e.g. supply of monitoring Figure 6.3.6 Meteorological Station at equipment) effectively. Mahaxay in LAO. P.D.R

In order to implement effective administration of the monitoring network, a coordination mechanism should be introduced in order to promote standard management for the observation facilities that will be applied to any project by national and international organizations. Decentralization of DMH’s functions can improve the efficiency of activities through direct communication with local governments and speedy response to local needs. For this, further efforts in capacity development are required along with the effort to increase the number of engineers with good knowledge and skills. It is essential to secure the required number of engineers and provide appropriate training for them to enhance their capacity to fulfill the task. Therefore a strategic approach is required for capacity development in the short, middle and long term.

6.3.2 Utilization of Satellite Images As described in Chapter 4, global data based on satellite information are useful to develop flood simulation models and storm surge models when field observed data are not available or scarce. Table 6.3.3 shows major satellite products. Satellite images during floods also provide essential information of inundation conditions that can be utilized for identification of affected areas and response to disasters.

1) Relief activities  Identification of inundation areas: (Figure 6.3.7)  Inundation areas can be identified using satellite images (UNOSAT, NASA).  Since satellite images may not be available on an hourly or daily basis (basically 1 to 2 week basis), numerical simulation by a flood simulation model can supplement satellite information on an hourly or daily basis; therefore a flood simulation model should be developed based on actual satellite images.  Urgent needs assessment: (Figure 6.3.8)  After the identification of inundation areas using satellite images or simulation models, affected population or households can be identified by applying globally available data (Worldpop, MIMU, LANDSCAN), and the number and location of affected people can be estimated for emergency needs assessment.

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- Food - Drinking water - Emergency shelters - Other relief items/emergency supplies 2) Evacuation and Resettlement  Identification of safe areas for temporary resettlement:  Safe places for temporary resettlement can be identified using satellite images and flood simulation models.  Identification of flood risk for future development:  For future development, future flood risk should be identified. Satellite images and flood simulation models developed by using satellite images can provide first hand information, but the accuracy of flood simulation should be verified and improved by applying field data such as observed hydrological data for the detailed designing of a future development plan.

(Utilization of satellite information) Satellite information can be obtained through the analysis of satellite images and utilized to identify disaster situations. Such analysis requires specific knowledge and skills. For example, Sentinel Asia, one of the providers of satellite images, uses jpeg format. In order to identify inundation areas from jpeg satellite images, skills on spectrum analysis by using GIS software is necessary. In this respect, the GIS & Remote Sensing Group under the Hydrological Division of DMH is expected to play a leading role.

Table 6.3.3 Major Satellite Products (As of July 2014) Description Data Products Procurement Specification Utilization for Flood Management (contents, type etc.) Source Color photo (by optical NASA, JAXA , UNOSAT (inundation maps) Resolution During Flood Event satellite) USGS etc. FREE: 250m, 500m, 1km  Identification of inundated area (during Monochrome photo (by SAR http://www.unitar.org/unosat/maps flood event) sensor) NASA (inundation maps) FREE: Observation  Evaluation of damages by using social Images http://oas.gsfc.nasa.gov/floodmap/ frequency: data(e.g. number of affected people) 1 to 2 weeks Usual  Development inundation analysis model (model calibration) There are two types of DEM. GTOPO30, GTOPO30 FREE Resolution Usual Elevation DTM: Digital Terrain Model, SRTM, ASTER https://lta.cr.usgs.gov/GTOPO30 900m (GTOPO30),  Development runoff/inundation analysis elevation of ground GDEM etc. SRTM FREE 90m (SRTM3), model (modeling river basins) (Digital DSM: Digital Surface Model, http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/srtm/ 30m (ASTER  Preparation of base maps Elevation elevation of surface, ASTER GDEM FREE GDEM) Model, DEM) including height of artificial http://www.jspacesystems.or.jp/ers structures and timbers etc. dac/GDEM/E/index.html Based on cloud cover NASA, JAXA etc. GSMaP FREE Resolution During Flood Event observed by satellite (by ftp://rainmap:Niskur+1404@hokus 10km GSMaP),  Flood forecasting (input data) SAR sensor), rainfall ai.eorc.jaxa.jp/ 30km (3B42RT) distribution is estimated. 3B42RT FREE Usual Rainfall http://gdata1.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/da Observation  Development runoff/inundation analysis ac- frequency : hourly models (model calibration) bin/G3/gui.cgi?instance_id=rt_inte (GSMaP) rcomp 3 hours (3B42RT)

Based on spectral analysis GLOBAL LAND COVER Resolution Usual (optical satellite), land use CHARACTERIZATION 1km (GLCC)  Development runoff/inundation analysis condition is identified (GLCC):FREE model (roughness coefficient of river Land use http://edc2.usgs.gov/glcc/glcc.php basins)  Preparation of base maps  Preparation of hazard maps

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[11 Oct] [28 Oct] [9 Nov]

Source CTI Engineering International, Col.,Ltd

Figure 6.3.7 Extension of Flood Inundation Area in Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, in 2011 (LADARSAT, SAR Images)

[1996] [2000 - 2000] [2010-2011]

Source CTI Engineering International, Col.,Ltd

Figure 6.3.8 Land Cover Map in Chao Phraya River Basin (LANDSAT, Optical Images)

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6.3.3 Assessment and Mitigation of Landslide Disaster Risk As mentioned in Chapter 1, Cyclone Komen hit Myanmar in July and August 2015, and caused serious damage to the country. According to past damage records (see Table 1.1.1), landslides are one of the serious natural disasters in Myanmar. Heavy rainfall brought by cyclones caused landslides and other sediment-related disasters mainly in the western part of Myanmar, and some of them created landslide dams (natural dams) by blocking a stream flow. Since a landslide dam has an unstable structure with no outlet for water in its reservoirs, an eventual overflow could lead it to a sudden burst that may cause a disastrous debris flow devastating downstream areas. Therefore, it is quite important to monitor the conditions of such dams and reservoirs while developing and implementing countermeasures. To reduce the risk of landslide disasters, risk identification and land-use regulations are essential while implementing various countermeasures to stabilize hill and mountain slopes. DMH has responsibility for collecting and analyzing hydro-meteorological information while other activities are undertaken by other responsible organizations based on information provided by DMH. Since such activities are interrelated, it is recommended to develop comprehensive strategies in cooperation with all related organizations. Basic strategies practiced in Japan are explained below, which can be arranged to be adopted in Myanmar:

1) Enforcement of land use regulations and establishment of an evacuation mechanism (Figure 6.3.9) Land use regulations should firstly be enforced to prevent landslide disasters and other sediment-related disasters. In Japan, the Sediment Disaster Prevention Act was enforced in 2011 to prevent damage by sediment-related disasters. This act defines two types of hazard area: “sediment disaster hazard area (referred to as yellow zone, meaning potential disaster area)” and “sediment disaster special hazard area (referred to as red zone, meaning high potential disaster area)”. Both types of hazard area are identified by engineering officers of prefectural governments and finally designated by governors. A sediment disaster hazard area (yellow zone) is defined for three kinds of sediment-related disasters as below. In this area, a warning and evacuation system is arranged (enforcement order Article 2).  Collapse of Steep Slopes I. A slope over 30 degrees and over 5 m high. II. A hilltop area within a horizontal distance of 10 m from the edge. III. An area within a horizontal distance of twice the height of a slope from its foot (if the height exceeds 50 m, apply 50 m).  Debris Flow I. An area located in a mountain stream with a risk of debris flow, where the slope from the fan head (the top of an alluvial fan) is more than two degrees downwards.

 Landslide I. Landslide area (where landslides have occurred or are likely to occur). II. An area located within the range equal to the horizontal length of a landslide mass from the foot of the landslide area (if it exceeds 250 m, apply 250 m). A sediment disaster special hazard area (red zone) is defined as below. In this area, restrictions on building structures are applied and financial support for relocation are provided (enforcement order Article 3). An area where the magnitude of the force acting on buildings, which is caused by the debris movement due to a landslide, exceeds the force that ordinary buildings can withstand without

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causing a collapse that might cause substantial harm to the lives or bodies of residents (#1). (#1) In this definition, the magnitude of the force acting on buildings refers to that of the force that acts on the buildings 30 minutes after the buildings are first affected by the debris derived from movement of a landslide mass. An area will be examined for the designation of sediment disaster special alert area if located within a distance of not farther than 60 m from the foot of the landslide area.

2) Sediment disaster alert (Figure 6.3.10, Figure 6.3.11, and Figure 6.3.12) Based on the regulations described above, alert systems for evacuation to yellow zones and red zones have been established. The relation curve represented by hourly precipitation data and soil water index (#2) (called as “Snake Line”) is used to evaluate a possibility of occurrence of landslide (Figure 6.3.10). If the snake line exceeds the critical line (CL) after 1 or 2 hours, sediment disaster alert will be issued. The snake line is drawn based on actual rainfall observation data and soil water index, and is updated every 30 minutes to forecast 2 or 3 hours ahead. The critical line is determined from major past disaster events and is set on the safest side. As such, meteorological information and the arrangement of past disaster data are essential for issuing warnings of sediment related disasters. (#2) A soil water index is calculated based on the concept of a tank model expressing surface runoff, storage, and subsurface runoff (see Figure 6.3.11). This index is equal to the total storage volume of three serial tanks. It is calculated for every 5 by 5 km area, about 16,000 meshes covering Japan. Rainfall data observed by weather radars are utilized for estimating rainfall spatial distribution corrected with observed ground rainfall. Figure 6.3.12 shows an example of sediment-related disaster alert information issued when the forecast plot is beyond the critical line. Alert information of rainfall forecasts and the names of regions (city, town or village) where values exceed the alert level are issued in this format. In this case, Kagoshima Prefecture and Kagoshima’s Local Meteorological Observatory released this alert information jointly. Items to be issued are issuing time and date, regions under alert, alert messages (including degree of risk, expected extension trend of alert area, and expected rainfall trend), heavy rain zone, and contact numbers.

3) Emergency response (Figure 6.3.13 and Figure 6.3.14) In case a landslide dam is formed, a level of risk should be estimated urgently (see Figure 6.3.13). The height, shape, and reservoir capacity of the landslide dam should be measured to determine if emergency response is necessary. Water level is a critically important factor to understand the level of risk. For the observation of water level, automatic water level measurement tools should be installed for continuous monitoring and for security reasons in case of a dam break. In an isolated area, float-type water level gauges are useful since they can be dropped from a helicopter. Estimation of inflow to the landslide dam is also essential to know the timing of overtopping; therefore hydrological simulation should be conducted with forecasting rainfall. Simulation is also required for a dam break scenario to identify areas at risk. All these simulations require topographic data and latest images of the landslide dam; therefore satellite information is essential for emergency risk management. If there is risk for residents in downstream areas, countermeasures to prevent a dam collapse should be implemented (see Figure 6.3.14). Typically, an emergency drainage channel should be constructed on the top of the landslide dam to drain the water safely downstream when the water is overtopping. During the construction, the reservoir water should be pumped out to keep the water level lower than the height of the landslide dam to prevent overtopping.

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4) Prevention of disasters by stabilizing land condition (Figure 6.3.15 and Figure 6.3.16) When signs of a landslide are found (e.g., crack on the slope, muddy water discharge, strange sound, etc.), survey and investigation will be carried out at the site to clarify the causes and characteristics of the impending landslide (Figure 6.3.15) as listed below:  Surface movement (GPS, Extensometer)  Change of groundwater level (Groundwater level meter)  Subsurface strain (Dipmeter)  Boring survey (to determine slip surface and characteristics of slip block) Based on the survey and investigation, physical methods will be selected to reduce landslide risk by stabilizing slope conditions (Figure 6.3.16). Applicable methods are listed below:  Water channel work  Horizontal boring work  Collecting well work  Earth removal work  Water discharge tunnel work  Pile work  Deep foundation work  Anchor work

5) Provision of cumulative rainfall data for forecasting landslide disasters DMH can provide cumulative rainfall based on their observed rainfall data. DMH can contribute to prediction of a landslide by providing rainfall data observed by weather radars and other tools. To support the activity of responsible organizations for sediment-related disasters, not only spatial distribution of rainfall (radars and ground rainfall gauges) but also forecasted rainfall should be provided from DMH.

Sediment Disaster Alert is issued Precipitation/60min

Soil Water Index

Source: MLIT, Japan Source: MLIT, Japan Figure 6.3.9 Designation of Potential Sediment Figure 6.3.10 Example of Snake Line for Warning Disaster Areas Information Issuance

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Radar/Raingauge-Analyzed Soil water index for Precipitation every 5 by 5 km area VSRF (Very Short Range About 16,000meshes Forecasting of Precipitation) in Japan

Soil water index Calculation

Water content in soil is Soil water index estimated by "total Rain precipitation" exclusive First tank of "volume run off into rivers" and "volume Surface permeated into soil Storage runoff downward.

The Soil Water Index Second tank equals to the total Storage in surface layer storage volume of 3 Standards of Storage permeation serial tanks. runoff ・Heavy Rain Warning/Advisory Third tank Underground ・Sediment Disaster Alart Storage water runoff Permeation

Source: MLIT, Japan

Figure 6.3.11 Application of Soil Water Index Source: MLIT, Japan Figure 6.3.12 Example of Sediment-related Disaster Alert Information

Measure height and Drop water-level gauges Prevent the collapse of natural dam Effect of emergency shape of natural dam from air work • Drainage work, River blockage occursblockage River Implement ・Deploy equipment, The water level rose after the construction of temporary emergency build entry route heavy rains of 2012 Typhoon No. survey drainage channel 4, but it was safely discharged Lower water level using pumps via the temporary drainage channel.

9/21 9/22 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0 1 2 3 4 5

天端までの水位差m 6 7 ・Transport materials by helicopter Display areas at risk of Conduct simulation of flooding secondary disaster After water level falls, build

emergency drainage channel for downstream residents Reflect in evacuation plans

Clear trees

Digital elevation model

Check river blockage Build entry route

Source: MLIT, Japan Source: MLIT, Japan Figure 6.3.13 Emergency Response Figure 6.3.14 Prevention of Collapse of a Natural Dam

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Select method to reduce the risk of land slide Water channel work Carry out surveying and investigation to clarify landslide causes and Earth removal work * Prevent inflow of surface characteristics water from outside area * Decrease thrust by removing earth at top of landslide Horizontal boring work area Boring survey * Execute to remove * Determine slip surface and characteristics of groundwater to about 10 m. slip block Exterior view Pile work Anticipated slip surface? Measure movement Collecting well work Measure movement (GPS) * Execute to remove (extensometers) groundwater to about 30m. *Measure * Observe surface movement movement in real Landslide range Interior view time GPS observation point Water collection work Amount of change

Without precise advance measurements, cannot select or execute appropriate construction methods Collected ground Water discharge tunnel sample work Incline * Water drainage for cases Deep foundation work (Seen from below during when scale of landslide is large, construction) moving block is thick, and * Concrete piles about 100 m long groundwater veins are many and about 5 m+ in outer diameter Depth

Pile work, deep foundation work Determine depth where Anchor work twist is greatest Subsurface dipmeter data * Drive through slip surface to resist Water collection Subsurface *To determine slip surface, insert guide * Measure changes in groundwater level and stop landslide movement pipes into ground and measure twist (main cause of landslides) Deformed discharge tunnel Water discharge * Build deeper than dipmeter Groundwater level meter tunnel work landslide surface Anchor work Source: MLIT, Japan Source: MLIT, Japan Figure 6.3.15 Survey and Investigation to Clarify Figure 6.3.16 Selected Methods to Reduce the Causes and Characteristics of Landslide Landslide Risk

6.3.4 Risk Reduction by a Timeline Plan A timeline plan for floods is an effective tool to execute necessary actions for preparation before a flood and for response during a flood. A timeline plan specifies “who will do what and when”, which contributes to mitigating damage and accelerating recovery through:

1) Enabling officers in charge to take proactive actions while foreseeing upcoming situations 2) Enhancing the understanding of the correlation between required actions and the development of the situation 3) Avoiding overlooking necessary actions to be taken 4) Keeping officers steady and cool-headed by having them understand what should be done beforehand 5) Enhancing the effectiveness of cooperation among organizations concerned by knowing the timing and contents of cooperative work

A timeline plan is effective for types of hazard that allow a certain length of lead time for preparation, such as cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes. It also contributes to visualizing necessary actions for effective response during flooding. U.S. utilizes a timeline plan to decide the timing of suspension of public transportation services, which contributed to the reduction of casualties when Hurricane Sandy attacked the country in 2012 even though there were many physical damage caused by the hurricane. Japan also has started formulating a timeline plan to prepare for large-scale flood disasters since 2014.

Figure 6.3.17 Effectiveness of a Timeline Plan

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Since DMH has responsibilities for the analysis and distribution of information on cyclones and flood forecasting and warning, DMH is also expected to play an important role in provision of basic information for timeline planning. Such information will be fully utilized by various organizations concerned on flood disaster risk reduction activities. A cooperative mechanism among organizations will be enhanced by visualizing the role of each organization in the timeline chart, which improves the effectiveness of actions taken. A timeline plan will be formulated for two stages: 1) before the cyclone attack and 2) during and after the cyclone attack.

(1) Before the cyclone attack Cyclones can be detected a few days before their landfall. This time lag is important to arrange all preparatory actions by governments, public services and residents according to the prospect of the scale of the coming cyclone. Figure 6.3.18 shows a sample timeline plan to prepare for typhoons, in which the actions of each sector are clearly stated so that officers in charge can easily recognize not only their own actions but also what kind of action is being prepared in other sectors. One of the important actions is suspension of public services such as transportation to reduce the risk of accidents and disasters.

Figure 6.3.18 Timeline Plan for Typhoon

(2) During and after the cyclone attack During and after the cyclone attack, discharge on the ground surface caused by heavy rainfall increases rapidly, causing flooding and inundation. Then response operation starts accordingly, which is already incorporated in Figure 6.3.18 after 0 (zero) hr. Simulation of the progress of flood and inundation conditions using a simulation model can provide information on the progress of the hazard as a timeline scenario, which is valuable for taking proper emergency action at the right timing. It is desirable that such a timeline scenario should be prepared beforehand for a certain scale of flood, and

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a response plan should be developed preliminarily to check its appropriateness and avoid overlooking actions required. As such, timeline scenario is essential for the arrangement of action plans from national to community levels.

(Contingency planning using flood scenario) ICHARM conducted a pilot activity of contingency planning at a community in the Philippines (Calumpit Municipality, Pampanga River basin) by applying a timeline scenario. A timeline scenario was prepared by simulation using the RRI Model and visualized using the colors of the safety markers that are installed at many places in the municipality to easily comprehend the status of inundation during a flood (Figure 6.3.19). Figure 6.3.20 shows a timeline scenario for different scales of floods.

Color of Safety Markers • Electric poles are colored with “ Yellow, Orange and Red” to provide guidance for evacuation. • About 193 markers are installed in the Municipality. • Each marker has a designated contact person for reporting water level to MDRRMO.

6ft Level 3: Evacuation 4ft Level 2: Alert for possibility of evacuation 2ft Level 1: Monitor the weather

Figure 6.3.19 Colors used to Indicate the Level of Safety (Calumpit Municipality, Pampanga River basin, Philippines) (MDRRMO: Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office)

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Time Series Inundation Chart :

The flood inundation depth calculated by RRI model at the location of color of safety pole is presented in the table at 12 hrs interval in each day. The colors of the water depth are based on color of safety markers (Purok is a small unit of community. Each Purok has one color of safety). Ordinary Flood: is the flood that has high chances of occurrence frequently but the flood damages might be small. High Flood: is the flood that has occurrence chances less than ordinary flood (similar to typhoon Pedring) and the flood damages might be higher than ordinary flood case. Extreme Flood: is the flood that has rare occurrence chances, but the flood damages might be very large.

Figure 6.3.20 Timeline Scenario (Inundation Chart)

This timeline scenario displays information on peak depth, duration of inundation, and changes in inundation depth, and provides a basis to develop preparation and response plans. Flood hazard maps that are commonly used only show the peak depth of inundation, but this timeline scenario enables people to comprehend the progress of a flood, which helps them estimate the amount of emergency goods they may need and decide the timing of evacuation.

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CHAPTER 7 CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT

In this chapter, capacity development activities are summarized including the development and implementation of the training programs on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model for DMH and ID, the introductory sessions on flood risk assessment for DMH, ID and organizations relevant to flood risk assessment, and the development and implementation of training on flood disaster risk assessment for DMH and ID.

7.1 General Description The main objective of the training activities was to strengthen the capacity of DMH and organizations relevant to flood risk assessment. In order to achieve this goal, a series of training programs from introductory to advanced levels were conducted in the TA-8456 Part II project. First, the consultant team conducted a questionnaire survey to evaluate the capacity of DMH staffs in flood risk assessment. Then the consultant team proposed a series of training programs on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model, and they were approved by DMH during the October 2014 mission. Meanwhile, ID also requested their participation in the training programs on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model to be conducted under TA-8456 Part II, and DMH and ADB agreed. Finally two basic training courses for all officers, two advanced training courses and four follow-up training sessions for trainer candidates were organized in this TA between December 2014 and May 2016. One training program on flood disaster risk assessment was also organized in this TA.

7.2 Training on Meteorological and Hydrological Modelling 7.2.1 Overview of Training on Meteorological and Hydrological Modelling The training programs regarding meteorological/hydrological analysis in this TA consists of 1) basic training for all officers and 2) advanced training for trainer candidates (other officers participated as observers). As a result of discussions with DMH on training, four training sessions were scheduled to be conducted. Afterward, additional training sessions (follow-up training) were carried out four times for trainer candidates in response to a request from DMH and the feedback that the consultant team collected after the completion of the advanced training. ID officers participated in all training sessions as trainer candidates. Figure 7.2.1 shows the overall picture of the training in this TA.

[A series of Training on Modeling (TM series)] [Basic Training] [Advanced Training] (For all officers) TM-3: (For trainer candidates) TM-1:  Basics on - Review of assignment given at - Basics on hydrology and the TM-2 RRI Model - Study on utilization of the simulation results from the [Follow-up Training] TM-2: RRI Model and the Storm - Review of the RRI Model - Review of basics on Surge Model and the Storm Surge Model hydrology and runoff analysis - Assignment on both models - Statistical analysis for risk - Development of the RRI TM-4: assessment Model and the Storm Surge - Review of assignment given at - Review of combination of Model TM-3 RRI Model and Storm Surge - Assignment on the RRI - Combination of the RRI Model Model Model and the Storm Surge and the Storm Surge Model - GIS training for flood hazard Model (for trainer candidates) - Practice of hazard assessment mapping by using the RRI Model and - Introduction of new GUI of the Storm Surge Model. RRI Model etc.

Figure 7.2.1 Overall Picture of Training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model

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The training method, the objectives of each training session, and the number of participants are summarized in Table 7.2.1.

Table 7.2.1 Summary of Training Programs (TM-1 to TM-4) and Follow-up Training Program/Date Training Method Outcomes/Results Participants TV-conference 1) The trainees from DMH and ID learned basic DMH: 9 (RRI trainees: TM-1 system/ knowledge on hydrology and the RRI Model; and 2) 9)

supplementary Preparatory interview/questionnaire survey was ID: 4 19 December, lectures at ADB Nay conducted with trainer candidates to evaluate the 2014 Pyi Taw office participants’ current knowledge and capacity. 1) The trainees learned the basic steps for DMH: 20 (RRI developing a flood inundation simulation model trainees: 12, storm using the RRI Model and improving its accuracy; 2) surge trainees: 3, and TM-2 Lectures at DMH The trainees learned basic steps for developing a observers: 5) Nay Pyi Taw office, storm surge simulation model using Storm Surge ID: 3 16 to 20 hands-on training & Model and improving its accuracy; and 3) The February, 2015 group discussions trainees learned how to utilize simulation results obtained from the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model. 1) The assignment on the RRI Model and the Storm DMH: 17 (RRI trainer Surge Model given at TM-2 in February 2015 was candidates: 4, storm TM-3 Lectures at DMH reviewed; 2) The trainees learned steps for utilizing surge trainer Nay Pyi Taw office, RRI Model results; 3) The trainees learned basic candidates: 3, 12 to 14 May, hands-on training & steps for developing a local Storm Surge Model; and observers: 10) 2015 group discussions 4) The trainees learned the basic concepts on risk ID: 3 assessment. 1) The assignment on the RRI Model and the Storm DMH: 18 (RRI trainer Lectures at DMH Surge Model given at TM-3 in May 2015 was candidates: 4, storm TM-4 Nay Pyi Taw office, reviewed; 2) The trainees learned steps for utilizing surge trainer hands-on training & simulation results from the RRI Model and the candidates: 3, 15 to 17 June, individual training Storm Surge Model; and 3) The trainees learned and observers: 11) 2015 for trainer practiced hazard assessment using the RRI Model ID: 3 candidates and the Storm Surge Model. 1) The remaining sessions of TM-4 were offered to DMH: 10 (RRI trainer the trainer candidates of DMH and ID; 2) The candidates: 4, storm Lectures at DMH participants learned real-time operation of flood surge trainer Follow-up Nay Pyi Taw office, forecasting using the RRI Model; 3) The candidates: 3, Training (1) hands-on training & participants learned the methodology of observers: 3)

individual tutoring hydrological statistical analysis; and 4) The ID: 3 12, 13 & 16 for the trainer participants learned the basic steps of the Storm October, 2015 candidates Surge Model by developing several models based on actual phenomena, such as Cyclones Komen (2015), Mara (2012) and Giri (2010). 1)The trainer candidates of DMH and ID reviewed DMH: 8 (RRI trainer draft reference manuals on the RRI Model and the candidates: 4, storm Lectures at DMH Follow-up Storm Surge Model given at the Follow-up Training surge trainer Nay Pyi Taw office, Training (2) in October 2015; 2) The participants reviewed the candidates: 3, hands-on training & process of modeling with the RRI Model and the observer: 1) individual tutoring 25 to 28 Storm Surge Model; 3) The participants learned how ID: 3 for the trainer January 2016 to prepare coastal flood hazard maps with candidates combination of the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model. Follow-up Lectures at DMH 1)The trainer candidates of DMH and ID reviewed DMH: 16 (RRI trainer Training (3) Nay Pyi Taw office, the process of modeling with the RRI Model and the candidates: 4, storm hands-on training & Storm Surge Model; 2) The trainer candidates made surge trainer 30, 31 March & individual tutoring a presentation on the results of flood inundation candidates: 3, 1 and 4 to 6 for the trainer analysis in Nyaung Don Area and Kale Area, and all observers: 9) April, 2016 candidates participants discussed methodologies to improve ID: 2

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Program/Date Training Method Outcomes/Results Participants their models; 3) The participants learned how to prepare flood hazard maps with ArcGIS; and 4) The participants also attended hands-on training on coastal flood hazard mapping. 1) The trainer candidates of DMH and ID (for RRI DMH: 6 (RRI trainer Follow-up Individual tutoring Model) prepared presentation materials for the final candidates: 3, storm Training (4) for the trainer workshop on 23 May 2016; 2) The trainer candidates surge trainer candidates in of DMH (for the Storm Surge Model) confirmed the candidates: 3) 19 to 22 May, preparation of the process of modeling and prepared a presentation for ID: 2 2016 final workshop the final workshop; and 3) All trainer candidates practiced presentation for the final workshop.

7.2.2 Basic Training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model In the basic training for DMH and ID, a training session was conducted to ensure participants’ understanding of the basic theory and methodology of the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model. The first training on the RRI Model (TM-1) was conducted on 19 December 2014, using a TV conference system between the ADB Nay Pyi Taw office and ICHARM. Trainees of DMH and ID were at the ADB Nay Pyi Taw Residence Office with two experts of the consultant team. The second training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model (TM-2) was held at the DMH Nay Pyi Taw office on 16-20 February 2015. (1) TM-1 The meteorological and hydrological training of TM-1 was held on 19 December 2014 via a TV conference system between the ADB Nay Pyi Taw Residence Office and ICHARM at Tsukuba, Japan. This training was the first training session for meteorological and hydrological modeling using the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model. The objectives of TM-1 were 1) to introduce training programs under the ADB TA-8456 Part II project, 2) to teach basic knowledge on hydrology and the RRI Model, and 3) to conduct an interview survey with the candidates of trainers. The contents of the training were i) introduction of the training programs under TA-8456 Part II, and ii) basic hydrology and the RRI Model, including three types and objectives of “Flood Hazard Models”, the importance of “Perceptual Model”, and basics for Rainfall-Runoff modeling. A total of twenty one (13) participants attended: nine officers from the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) Hydrological Division and four officers (including one observer) from the Irrigation Department (ID). Two consultant team experts were at the ADB Nay Pyi Taw Residence Office to provide participants with on-site assistance. In addition to the scheduled training sessions, the consultant team conducted an on-site supplemental session after the TV conference training and provided the opportunities for the Myanmar participants, especially junior-level officers, to ask more questions and discuss the contents of the training materials. Also, the consultant team explained basic knowledge on hydrology and hydraulic modeling as follows: 1) Differences in model structure between the RRI Model and other inundation models such as MIKE-FLOOD and HEC-RAS. 2) Influence of land use and soil conditions (saturation) on runoff conditions 3) Analytical approach to ground water analysis using the RRI Model 4) Differences between lumped models and distributed models 5) Concept of flow accumulation (ACC) and flow direction in basin calculation grids used in the RRI Model.

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The outcomes of the TM-1 training were as follows: RRI Model: 1) Trainees learned the fundamentals of runoff and meteorological and hydrological modeling.

Storm Surge Model: 1) Trainees learned the necessary data for preparation of storm surge analysis.

The findings from the questionnaire survey are summarized as follows:  Most participants appreciated the contents of TM1, which suggests that the materials, teaching skills and the training level were appropriate for the Myanmar side.  However, most participants thought that the training period was short, and commented that they needed more time to learn the RRI Model thoroughly.  Regarding the TV conference system, there were no particular problems. The quality of sound and picture was reasonable. However, participants hoped for direct on-site training sessions in Myanmar instead of via a TV conference system.

(Assignment of trainer candidates) After TM-1, the consultant team requested DMH to assign the trainer candidates of RRI Model and Storm Surge Model, and DMH appointed officers as trainer candidates before TM-2. Each trainer candidate of the RRI Model was also assigned one of the three cities to support and improve its RRI Model during and after the TA. Trainer candidates of ID chose Bago area for analysis in the training (see section 4.3). The list of trainer candidates of DMH is shown in Table 4.1.1.

(2) TM-2 The meteorological and hydrological training of TM-2, an on-site lecture, was held from 16 to 20 February 2015. The objectives of TM-2 were 1) to review the basic knowledge of hydrology and the RRI Model, which were taught at TM-1, 2) to learn the basic steps for developing a local version of the RRI Model and improving its model accuracy, 3) to learn the basic steps for developing a local version of the Storm Surge Model and improving its model accuracy, and 4) to learn how to utilize simulation results obtained from the developed RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model. The contents of the training were i) an outline of the RRI Model, including the basic steps for development of a local version of the RRI Model, the meanings of its parameters, and an outline of the Storm Surge Model including Myers formula and data requirements, ii) hands-on training on development of a local version of both the RRI Model (case studies) and the Storm Surge Model, iii) introduction to advanced RRI Model settings (e.g. model calibration and utilization of results), and iv) group discussion. The number of participants varied from Day 1 to Day 5 because the target participants were different as shown in Table 7.2.2. Table 7.2.2 Participants of TM-2 Date Activity Description Total: 25 Opening Ceremony February 16, 2015 • DMH (12), ID (3), ADB Consultants (5) RRI Model: Day 1 • Observers (5) Total: 25 February 17, 2015 • RRI Model: Day 2 DMH (12), ID (3), ADB Consultants (5) Observers(5) Total: 26 February 18, 2015 RRI Model: Day 3 • DMH (12), ID (3), ADB Consultants (6)

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Date Activity Description Observers(5) Total: 24 February 19, 2015 • Storm Surge Model: Day 1 DMH (3), ID (3), ADB Consultants (4) Observers(14) Total: 30 Storm Surge Model: Day 2 February 20, 2015 • DMH (3), ID (3), ADB Consultants (2) Closing Ceremony • Observers(22)

The outcomes of TM-2 training are as follows: RRI Model: 1) Trainees were familiarized with developing an inundation model using the RRI Model. 2) Trainees learned the meanings and functions of the model parameters and how to set them up. Storm Surge Model: 1) Trainees learned the procedure of developing a local version of the Storm Surge Model.

The findings from the TM-2 training programs are as follows: RRI Model:  Overall, the trainees commented that they adequately understood the contents provided through this training.  The trainer candidates felt that the length of this training was not long enough for them to fully understand how to execute the RRI Model independently. They added that they needed more time to practice developing flood inundation models with the RRI Model for various cases.  The trainer candidates requested for another training opportunity to enhance their knowledge and skills on the RRI Model and other available models and tools (IFAS, GIS etc.).

Storm Surge Model:  Overall, the trainer candidates answered that they adequately understood the contents provided through this training.  The trainer candidates felt that the training for developing a flood inundation model was too short and did not have enough time to understand the model in depth.  The trainer candidates requested for continuous training programs so that they could acquire the skills and knowledge needed to operate the Storm Surge Model from the introductory to advanced levels.

7.2.3 Development and Implementation of Training Program for Trainer Candidates Two training programs on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model (TM-3 and TM-4) for meteorological and hydrological analysis and for flood risk assessment were conducted in May and June 2015, respectively. Both were specially designed for the trainer candidates of DMH and ID. The TM-3 training was held on 12-14 May 2015, and the TM-4 training was held on 15-17 June 2015. Both training programs were held at the DMH Nay Pyi Taw office.

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(1) TM-3 The meteorological and hydrological training of TM-3 was held in the form of an on-site lecture for the trainer candidates from 12 to 14 May 2015. The objectives of TM-3 were: 1) to review the assignment on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model given at TM-2 in February 2015; 2) to learn the steps for utilizing RRI Model results; 3) to learn the basic steps for developing a local version of the RRI Model; and 4) to learn the basic concepts on risk assessment. The contents of the training were: i) utilization of the results from the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model for flood management; ii) introduction of and hands-on training on preparation of hazard maps using the RRI Model results; iii) hands-on training on development of an inundation analysis model and a local version of the Storm Surge Model; iv) hands-on training on development of a local version of the Storm Surge Model (basics); and v) group discussion.

Table 7.2.3 Participants of TM-3 Date Activity Description Total: 33 Opening Ceremony • DMH (25), ID (3), ADB Consultants (5) May 12, 2015 Total: 22 RRI Model • DMH (4), ID (3), ADB Consultants (5) ,Observers (10) Total: 21 May 13, 2015 RRI Model • DMH (4), ID (3), ADB Consultants (4), Observers (10) Total: 21 Risk Assessment • DMH (4), ID (3), ADB Consultants (4), Observers (10) Total: 24 May 14, 2015 Storm Surge Model • DMH (7), ID (3), ADB Consultants (4), Observers (10) Total: 35 Closing Ceremony • DMH (28), ID (3), ADB Consultants (4)

The outcomes of TM-3 training are as follows: RRI Model: 1) The trainees learned how to modify RRI Model parameters. 2) The trainees learned utilizations of the RRI Model for flood risk management including preparation of flood hazard maps. 3) The trainees developed a hazard map using results from the RRI Model.

Storm Surge Model: 1) The trainees learned how to develop a local version of the Storm Surge Model.

The findings from TM-3 and suggestions for TM-4 provided by the Myanmar side are as follows: RRI Model:  Overall, the trainer candidates commented that they adequately understood the contents provided through this training.  The trainer candidates felt that the length of the training was adequate, but they also felt that they needed more time to practice developing a flood inundation model with the RRI Model for various cases.  The trainer candidates hoped to utilize/incorporate the skills and knowledge which they gained through the training in their operational flood forecasting system and flood hazard mapping in the future.

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 After the TM-3 training, assignment was given to the trainer candidates by the consultant team jointly with Ms. Htay Htay Than, the director of Hydrology Division, DMH.  Ms. Htay Htay Than suggested that the following items be included in the TM-4 training: i) how to utilize the current and actual river channel shapes (width and depth), especially for the Mandalay simulation, ii) how to consider the inflow to flood mitigation structures, such as dams and weirs located upstream, iii) how to consider tidal effect (not only storm surges) along the coastal area, such as Yangon and Mawlamyine, iv) how to include drainage systems in the model, especially in the model of Yangon, v) how to incorporate land use as a parameter in the model, and vi) how to check the locations of tributaries in Mandalay.  In addition, the trainer candidates of DMH suggested that the training should include 1) more practice on a detailed model, 2) hazard map preparation (so that they can publish results from the RRI Model), and 3) methodology and utilization for flood forecasting.

Storm Surge Model:  The trainer candidates felt that the length of the training was not sufficient. They felt that they needed more time to practice developing a local version of the Storm Surge Model for various cases.  The trainer candidates from DMH and ID felt difficulties in understanding the procedures to execute the developed Storm Surge Model, including collecting observed data. They still felt confused about the FORTRAN-based model configuration without any Graphical User Interface.  The trainer candidates felt difficulties in understanding the procedure to create input files for executing the Storm Surge Model. They could not carry out a format conversion of sea floor data by using ArcGIS due to unavailability of authorized GIS software. They could not finish their TM-2 assignment by the due date.  The consultant team gave them new assignment (track change) and asked them to complete the TM-2 assignment (downscaling and calibration) before starting the TM-3 assignment.

Risk Assessment:  Most of the participants learned the basic concepts of risk assessment for the first time. They were able to follow the lecture; however they thought that more time is needed for them to fully understand risk assessment.  Some participants requested for more information on how to determine risk indicators and how to calculate damage.

(2) TM-4 The meteorological and hydrological training of TM-4 was held in the form of an on-site lecture for the trainer candidates from 15 to 17 June 2015. The objectives of TM-4 were 1) to review the assignment on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model given at TM-3 in May 2015, 2) to learn the steps for utilizing results from the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model, and 3) to learn and practice hazard assessment by using the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model.

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The contents of the training were i) finalization of the inundation analysis model (RRI Model) through personal training with the consultant team experts, including land-use conditions for setting up a roughness coefficient and a coefficient of permeability in flood plains, revision of river alignment, etc., ii) hands-on training on development of a local version of the Storm Surge Model (advanced).

Table 7.2.4 Participants of TM-4 Date Activity Description  Opening Total: 40 Ceremony DMH (30), ID (3), ADB Consultants (7)  RRI Model Total: 24 June 15, 2015 DMH (4), ID (2), Observers (12), ADB Consultants (6)  Storm surge Total: 5 Model DMH (3), ID (1), ADB Consultants (1)  RRI Model Total: 13 DMH (4), ID (2), Observers (1), ADB Consultants (6) June 16, 2015  Storm Surge Total: 5 Model DMH (3), ID (1), ADB Consultants (1)  RRI Model Total: 24 DMH (4), ID (2), Observers (12), ADB Consultants (6)  Storm Surge Total: 5 June 17, 2015 Model DMH (3), ID (1), ADB Consultants (1)  Closing Total: 39 Ceremony DMH (27), ID (3), Observer (1), ADB (1), ADB Consultants (7)

The outcomes of TM-4 training are as follows: RRI Model:  The trainees learned the basics of a real-time flood forecasting system with the RRI Model.  The trainees finalized the flood inundation analysis model and developed flood inundation maps for the three target cities.  The trainees prepared presentation materials of their hazard maps for the consultation meeting and presented them at the meeting.

Storm Surge Model:  The trainees reviewed the procedure for development of a local version of the Storm Surge Model and necessary skills including ArcGIS, QGIS, text editor and FORTRAN.

The findings from TM-4 are as follows: RRI Model:  At the time of reviewing assignment on the RRI Model, three trainer candidates from DMH and a trainer candidate from ID gave their presentations on their assignment from the TM-3 training. The trainer candidates discussed the application of the RRI Model to Myanmar Rivers.  In order to finalize the inundation analysis, the consultant team gave additional explanations regarding utilization of land use data for parameter settings and adjustment of river alignment, and conducted hands-on training. The series of RRI Model training (4 times) completed the explanations of major functions on the RRI Model.

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 For personal training with the consultant team experts, the consultant team gave useful advice and hints about the modeling and preparation of hazard maps, etc., and supported the trainer candidates to complete their presentation materials for the consultation meeting.  During the development of the flood forecasting model, the consultant team gave a lecture on flood forecasting in the upstream part of the Mandalay area, and conducted hands-on training. In addition, the consultant team explained detailed daily operation work on flood forecasting.

Storm Surge Model:  Regarding the training on the Storm Surge Model, three candidates from the meteorological division were assigned as trainer candidates of the Storm Surge Modeling, but some candidates except Ms. Sanda Wai were replaced by others in some training programs. Thus those new candidates need additional hands-on training on the Storm Surge Modeling.  The consultant team explained the basic mechanism of the Storm Surge Model, which employs Myers formula for estimation of the air pressure field and the wind field.  Bathymetry data of Andaman Sea and cyclone data (tracks, center air pressure etc.) are very important for storm surge simulation. The method for collecting sea floor data from web sites was explained in detail.  The method for obtaining cyclone data from web sites was explained in detail. In addition, useful free spatial data were introduced for mapping (e.g. DIVA GIS).  Since GIS software is useful to prepare input data for storm surge simulation, QGIS (free software) was introduced and its basic skills were instructed.  In this training, Storm Surge Models were developed using the FORTRAN program developed by CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. Japan. The settings of the model parameters and all calculation process of simulation were explained. In addition, the basic skills to use a text editor (e.g. Notepad2) were instructed for preparation of input files.  The significance and benefit of downscaling were explained in order to save calculation time and cost.  The method for result viewing using GIS Software was explained for checking simulation results efficiently. Utilization of ArcGIS (ESRI) was introduced for example.  In the TM-4 training, the tentative Storm Surge Model was completed. For the future, model calibration should be done, using observed tidal data, wind speed distribution, etc.

(3) Follow-up Training Follow-up training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model was held four times on October 2015, January 2016, March-April 2016, and May 2016 at the DMH Nay Pyi Taw office in response to the strong request from DMH. The follow-up training was also designed specifically for the trainer candidates of DMH and ID with individual tutoring.

(a) Necessity of Follow-up Training At the end of the TM-4 training program, the Hydrological Division of DMH and Irrigation Department presented the idea for RRI Model activities, as summarized in Table 7.2.5.

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Table 7.2.5 Way Forward on RRI Model Presented by DMH and ID Submitted by Descriptions 1. Develop flood hazard maps with the results of the RRI Model and disseminate the maps to local departments and other agencies, and carry out the principal aim of local departments and agencies relevant to disaster mitigation. (including the improvement of the existing flood hazard maps for Mandalay, Mawlamyine and Yangon by applying observed/survey data) 2. Establish a collaboration network with related organizations in order to collect necessary data/information for the development of flood hazard maps. Hydrological 3. Improve the existing flood forecasting system by using the RRI Model, and Division of DMH develop a flood preparation/warning system 4. Improve the capacity of DMH members (techniques and instruments) by sharing knowledge and experience of the RRI Model to DMH officers 5. Improve the organization’s capacity: equipment and facilities (high performance computers and survey equipment), human resources (experience and qualifications), technical skills to obtain appropriate observed data (rainfall data, discharge data, river cross section data, and soil characteristics). Irrigation 1. Carry out RRI Model trainings in the Hydrology Branch and share knowledge Department and experience obtained from TM1 to TM4 2. Integrate the training activities in preparing inundation maps for flood protection works 3. Recognize the necessity of high performance computers and stable internet connectivity (to download the globally available data such as GSMaP)

In addition, the Meteorological Division of DMH presented ideas about Storm Surge Model activities as follows:  Continue the training activity with the assistance of ADB TA-8456 Part II  Utilize the Storm Surge Model with Myers formula to reanalyze past cyclones, such as Cyclone GIRI  Recognize the importance of utilization of the Storm Surge Model to issue timely storm surge forecasts for the public.  Conduct additional training at the future visits of the consultant team (as of October 2015).

Considering the comments on the series of training (TM-1 to TM-4) from DMH and ID, the consultant team and DMH discussed the necessity of additional training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model, and reported to ADB. ADB agreed to hold additional training by the consultant team at Nay Pyi Taw.

(b) Contents of Follow-up Training In response to the requests from the Hydrological Division of DMH, the consultant team considered follow-up activities. Table 7.2.6 summarizes the proposed follow-up activities on RRI Modeling.

Table 7.2.6 Activities on RRI Model in Follow-up Trainings Item Suggestions Training about In order to set up a flood scale for risk assessment and preparation of hazard maps, probable rainfall technical training of statistical analysis was provided during the Interim Mission. Development of a The implementation of real time forecasting in the upper Ayeyarwady basin should be flood forecasting conducted during the 2015 rainy season on a trial basis until the Interim Mission. model In order to support the above activity regarding flood forecasting, the consultant team

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Item Suggestions regularly contacted DMH at least once a month by e-mail and/or phone. Explanation of a Since the training of the hybrid model (combination of the RRI Model and the Storm hybrid model Surge Model) was not conducted at TM-4, it was provided during the Interim Mission.

In addition, in response to the requests from the Meteorological Division of DMH, the consultant team proposed the following future activities on the Storm Surge Modeling:  The consultant team agreed to support the Storm Surge Modeling and contact DMH and/or ID for at least once a month.  For understanding the procedure of the Storm Surge Modeling easily, a detailed manual for development of a local version of the Storm Surge Model will be prepared and provided to DMH.  The consultant team agreed to hold additional individual training at future visits to Myanmar.

(c) Follow-up Training (i) 1st Training The 1st follow-up training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model with Myers formula was conducted for 4 days on 12, 13, 15 and 16 October 2015. The objectives of this follow-up training were 1) to explain the hybrid model (a combination of the RRI Model and calculated tidal level), 2) to review the flood forecasting model, 3) to conduct training on statistical analysis, and 4) to review the Storm Surge Modeling. Table 7.2.7 shows a summary of the 1st follow-up training.

Table 7.2.7 Summary of 1st Follow-up Training Date Category Descriptions on Activities - [RRI] Explanation of the hybrid model 12 October RRI and Storm - [SS (Individual)] Review of basics of storm surges and analysis on 2015 Surge Cyclone Komen - [RRI] Explanation on the flood forecasting model and hands-on 13 October RRI and Storm training 2015 Surge - [SS] Analysis on Cyclone Komen - [RRI] Explanation on the flood forecasting model and hands-on 15 October RRI and Storm training 2015 Surge - [SS] Analysis on Cyclone Komen - [RRI (Individual)] Statistical analysis and hands-on training of 16 October RRI and Storm statistical analysis with “Hydrological Statistics Utility (Japanese 2015 Surge statistical software) ” - [SS] Analysis on Cyclone Mara and basic training of ArcGIS

The outcomes of the follow-up training are as follows: RRI Model: 1) The trainees reviewed utilization of the RRI Model for a flood forecasting system. 2) The trainees learned the basics of the hybrid model. 3) The trainees learned how to use statistical analysis software. Storm Surge Model: 1) The trainees confirmed the procedure for developing a local version of the Storm Surge Model. 2) The trainees learned the basics of ArcGIS.

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Additional requests from the trainees are as follows: RRI Model: 1) The trainees wanted to conduct flood inundation analysis with fine topographic data prepared by DMH. The trainees wanted to learn i) how to import general DEM data to GUI and ii) how to make DIR files and ACC files from general DEM data. 2) In order to expand statistical analysis to organizations relevant to flood disaster management in Myanmar, the trainees asked the consultant team to prepare a simple technical manual on “Hydrological Statistics Utility (Japanese statistical software)”. The consultant team promised to consider their request and hydrological statistics utility manual was provided in the 2nd follow-up training. Storm Surge Model: 1) The trainees hope to conduct storm surge analysis of past major cyclones by themselves. They asked the consultant team to provide continuous support by e-mail. 2) Also the trainees asked the consultant team to support them for learning the downscaling method by e-mail. The consultant team promised to support them continuously.

(ii) 2nd Training The consultant team implemented the 2nd follow-up training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model for strengthening the capacity of DMH and ID from 25 to 29 January 2016 (5 days). The objectives were: 1) to review the reference manuals on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model given at the 1st follow-up training in October 2015; 2) to review of the process of modeling by using the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model; 3) to learn how to prepare coastal flood hazard maps; and 4) to prepare flood inundation analysis of Nyaung Don area and Kale area. Flood inundation analysis of Nyaung Don area and Kale area was newly undertaken upon the request from DMH as described in section 4.3.1.

The target personnel of the training were the trainer candidates of DMH and ID. Table 7.2.8 shows a summary of the 2nd follow-up training.

Table 7.2.8 Summary of 2nd Follow-up Training Activities Date Category Descriptions on Activities RRI and Storm - [RRI] Review of the reference manual 25 January 2016 Surge - [SS] Practice on a large scale model RRI and Storm - [RRI] Continued the training session of Day 1 26 January 2016 Surge - [SS] Practice on large/middle scale models RRI and Storm - [RRI] Personal training for the candidate trainer in charge of Surge Yangon 27 January 2016 - [SS] Review of Days 1 and 2 - [SS] Practice on a middle scale model RRI and Storm - [RRI] Explanation of additional flood inundation analysis in Surge Kale area and Nyaung Don area - [RRI] Explanation of combination of the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model - [SS] Practice on time series tidal data for preparation of coastal 28 January 2016 flood hazard maps - [ALL] Preparation of coastal flood hazard maps by using the RRI Model - [ALL] Setup of lower boundary conditions - [ALL] Preparation of draft coastal flood hazard maps 29 January 2016 Storm Surge - [SS] Review of the reference manual

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The findings from the 2nd follow-up training are summarized as follows:

[RRI Model]  The trainer candidates basically understood the development of a flood inundation model by using the RRI Model.  Additional explanation on the combination of the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model is necessary.

[Storm Surge Model]  The trainees were able to develop a local version of the Storm Surge Model by themselves.  Continuous support from the consultant team (e.g. by e-mail) was considered necessary because detecting errors requires experience with FORTRAN programs.

(iii) 3rd Training The consultant team implemented the 3rd follow-up training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model for strengthening the capacity of DMH and ID from 30 March to 6 April 2016 (6 days). The objectives were 1) to review the process of modeling by using the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model, 2) to learn how to prepare flood hazard maps by using ArcGIS, and 3) to introduce updated RRI-GUI. Table 7.2.9 shows a summary of 3rd follow-up training.

Table 7.2.9 Summary of 3rd Follow-up Training Activities Date Category Descriptions on Activities 30 March RRI and Storm - [ALL] Preparation of flood/coastal flood hazard mapping by using 2016 Surge ArcGIS - [SS] Practice on a large scale model for Cyclone Mala in 2012 31 March Storm Surge - [SS] Practice on large/middle scale models 2016 the consultant team modified the data set and prepared a technical manual. 1 April RRI and Storm - [RRI] Review of the combination of the RRI Model and the Storm 2016 Surge Surge Model. - [SS] Review of Days 1 and 2 - [SS] Explanation of the revised program dataset 4 April RRI and Storm - [RRI] Presentation on the results of flood analysis in Kale Area and 2016 Surge Nyaung Don Area from DMH, and free discussion. - [RRI] Introduction of updated RRI-GUI - [RRI] Explanation of a correction method for satellite based rainfall - [SS] Review of Day1 to Day 3 5 April RRI and Storm - [RRI] Individual training 2016 Surge - [SS] Preparation of tidal level for coastal flood hazard mapping 6 April RRI and Storm - [RRI] Individual training 2016 Surge - [SS] Preparation of tidal level for coastal flood hazard mapping

The findings obtained through 3rd follow-up training are summarized as follows:

[RRI Model]  The trainer candidates understood the development of a flood inundation model by using RRI Model and combination of the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model.

[Storm Surge Model]  The trainees were able to develop a local version of the Storm Surge Model by themselves up to a certain level. However, input errors were found frequently in program control files.

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Therefore, the consultant team developed sub-programs which create control files automatically, and provided them to the DMH meteorological division.  Additional training on preparation of estimated tidal data for coastal flood hazard mapping is needed and continuous support from the consultant team (e-mail basis) is required.

(iv) 4th Training The consultant team implemented the 4th follow-up training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model from 19 to 22 May 2016. The objectives of this training were 1) to prepare the presentation materials and rehearse of RRI Model and Storm Surge Model for the final workshop on 23 May 2016, and 2) to confirm the procedure of storm surge modeling. During this period, Cyclone Roanu was approaching near the border of Myanmar and Bangladesh, and it landed on the morning of 21 May 2016. The trainer candidates estimated the storm surge level on 20 May using a predicted cyclone track and the storm surge model provided by TA-8456, and disseminated a warning. Table 7.2.10 shows a summary of the 4th follow-up training.

Table 7.2.10 Summary of 4th Follow-up Training Activities Date Category Descriptions on Activities 19 May RRI and Storm - [RRI] Preparation of presentation materials 2016 Surge - [SS] Confirmation of the procedure for Storm Surge Modeling 20 May RRI and Storm - [RRI] Preparation of presentation materials 2016 Surge - [SS] Calculation for additional storm surge level of Cyclone Roanu in May 2016 Preparation of presentation materials 21 May RRI and Storm - [RRI] Preparation of presentation materials 2016 Surge Printing of flood/coastal flood hazard maps (large size) - [SS] Preparation of presentation materials 22 May RRI and Storm - [RRI & SS] Rehearsal of the presentation for the final workshop 2016 Surge Finalization of presentation materials

The findings obtained through the 4th follow-up training are summarized as follows:

[RRI Model]  Trainer candidates fully understood the development of a flood inundation model with the RRI Model and could deliver the presentation at the final workshop.

[Storm Surge Model]  The trainer candidates understood the procedure of development of the storm surge model and could deliver the presentation at the final workshop. With regard to the simulation of storm surges caused by Cyclone Roanu, the simulation results closely matched the actual height observed by a local officer of Sittwe Township, which was approximately 1 feet (0.3m).

7.2.4 RRI Model Training by DMH The Hydrological Division of DMH held the training on RRI Model by themselves for capacity development of DMH members and other related organizations from 11 to 15 July 2016 at DMH Nay Pyi Taw. DMH Yangon office, DMH Mandalay office, YCDC, MCDC, MSDC (Mon State Development Committee) and DWIR were also invited to the RRI Model training. A total of 26 persons attended the training. Two trainer candidates of TA-8456, Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing and Mr. Myo Tun Oo from DMH Hydrological Division, were in charge as the instructors of this RRI Model training, and it was

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successfully organized. This is one of the most important outputs from the TA-8456 project, which is expected to be organized continuously so as to maintain and improve the capacity of undertaking flood inundation analysis and evaluating flood risk in the field.

Figure 7.2.2 Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing Lectured on Figure 7.2.3 Mr. Myo Tun Oo Lectured on the the RRI Model RRI Model

Figure 7.2.4 Conferment of a Certificate on the Figure 7.2.5 Group Photo RRI Model

7.3 Equipment According to the results of the preliminary research in October 2014 and through the discussions with DMH, etc., it was found that DMH did not have enough high-spec computers and their peripherals for implementation of advanced hydrological/hydraulic analysis such as the RRI Model. For smooth transfer of the RRI and Storm Surge Models to DMH, the consultant team investigated the specifications of computers necessary for flood inundation analysis with the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model, and procured the equipment for DMH in May 2016. In addition, since official GIS Software for the preparation of flood hazard mapping is necessary, the consultant team procured the GIS tutorial book with 6-months free license (ESRI) and provided them to DMH. Table 7.3.1 shows a list of the equipment provided to DMH by TA-8456 Project.

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Table 7.3.1 Equipment Provided by TA-8456 Project Equipment No. Name Amount Remarks Personal Computer The main purpose is to conduct flood inundation analysis with the Desktop type RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model

Dell Precision Tower - Processor 6th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-6700 (Quad Core 3420 XCTO BASE 3.40GHz, 4.0Ghz Turbo, 8MB, w/ HD Graphics 530) with accessories - Memory 16GB (2x8GB) 2133MHz DDR4 Non-ECC

The consultant team proposed the above two items as minimally necessary for efficient modeling by the RRI Model (mainly calculation time). DMH agreed this condition during the January 2016 mission.

- Hard Disk 1TB 3.5inch SATA (7,200 Rpm) Hard Drive - Dell Professional P2214H 21.5" Wide Screen Monitor with 1 4 sets LED Back Light - OS: Windows 7 Professional English 64bit (Includes Windows 10 Pro License) - UPS - MS Office Microsoft Office Home and Business 2016 including Antivirus software

- 3 PCs were allocated to the Hydrological Division of DMH, Nay Pyi Taw, for simulation of the three target cities (Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine) - 1 PC was allocated to the Meteorological Division of DMH Nay Pyi Taw, for storm surge analysis - Personal computers were handed over to DMH on 23 May 2016

Large size printer The main purpose is to print out flood hazard maps prepared by DMH Canon Large Format Printer iPF-771 (36") - 5 Color Dye Pigment Reactive Ink ( 5 Color ) - Roll Paper, Width: 254(10") - 914.4(36") mm - Media Cutter, Automatic horizontal cutting (Rotary Cutter) 2 1 set - Processor 6th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-6700 (Quad Core 3.40GHz, 4.0Ghz Turbo, 8MB, w/ HD Graphics 530) - Memory 16GB (2x8GB) 2133MHz DDR4 Non-ECC - Including spare ink cartridge and role papers - Printer was hand over to DMH on 23 May 2016

GIS Tutorial The main purpose is to prepare flood hazard maps (ArcGIS 10.3, with 6 month free license, - ArcMap version 10.3 (ESRI) ESRI) - 6-months free license - Those tutorials were handed over to DMH on 30 March 2016 3 20 set Free license can be updated 3 times per one personal computer. Namely, DMH can make use of ArcMap for 2 years (6 months x 4 times) in 5 computers. After the final workshop on 23 May, the consultant team supported installation of ArcGIS.

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Figure 7.3.1 Personal Computer Figure 7.3.2 Large Size Printer (Dell Precision Tower 3420 XCTO) (Canon Large Format Printer iPF-771)

7.4 Procurement of Commercial Data For 1) improvement of the results of flood inundation analysis and 2) implementation of flood risk assessment, the commercial products shown in Table 7.4.1 were procured and provided to DMH during TA-8456. The ownership of those products belongs to DMH, Hydrological Division in Nay Pyi Taw, and those data can be used if DMH approves the usage of them.

Table 7.4.1 Procurement of Commercial Data during TA-8456 No. Product Purpose Description Name: AW3D Improvement of the 1) Satellite Images: World View 2 (2014) (high-resolution accuracy of flood 2) Target areas: Yangon 208 km2, Mandalay 3-dimensional inundation areas for the 347km2 and Mawlamyine 41 km2, topographic data) central part of the three Total 596 km2 target cities 3) Location: Refer to Figure 4.2.26 1 Type: Digital Surface 4) Coordinate system: WGS84 Model (DSM) Refer to section 4.2.6 5) Resolution: 2m 6) Accuracy of relative elevation (vertical): ±1m 7) Distributor: NTT Data http://mm.nttdata.com/ *procured on March 2016 Name: LandScan Risk assessment 1) Target area: Whole of Myanmar Myanmar 2014 (evaluate the social 2) Resolution: 30 arc seconds (approx. 1km) impact due to flood 3) Coordinate system: WGS84 2 Type: Population inundation) 4) Agent: Pacific Vision Corp. Japan http://pvc.jp/ Refer to section 5.3.2 *procured on September 2015

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7.5 Development and Implementation of Training on Flood and Storm-Surge Risk Assessment 7.5.1 Preliminary Activities for Development of the Training Program Before the development and implementation of the training on flood and storm-surge risk assessment, the consultant team introduced flood risk assessment as well as flood hazard mapping in the following meetings and workshops.

 Inception Meeting of the ADB TA-8456 Part II (Date: 16 September 2014, Participants: member organizations of the Implementation Network of TA Part II): The importance and benefits of flood risk assessment were introduced to the member organizations of the TA-8456 Part II Implementation Network.

 Training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model (TM-3) (Date: 12 -14 May 2015, Participants: officers from DMH and ID): The basic information on flood risk assessment, including methodologies, required data, and sample cases of its application to other projects, were introduced to DMH and ID. In addition, a methodology for flood hazard mapping was also introduced.

 Consultation Meeting for Risk Assessment (Date: 18 June 2015, Participants: member organizations of the Implementation Network of the TA Part II): The importance and methodologies of flood disaster risk assessment, including required data/information, practical use of assessment results, and flood hazard mapping, were introduced by the consultant team. Flood hazard assessment in the four cities (Yangon, Mandalay, Mawlamyine and Bago) was introduced by the trainer candidates of DMH and ID. The current flood risk assessment in Myanmar and requirements for future practice were also introduced by RRD. Discussions on risk assessment activities and flood hazard mapping in Myanmar were conducted in the meeting.

 Interim Meeting of the ADB TA-8456 Part II (Date: 14 October 2015, Participants: member organizations of the Implementation Network of TA Part II): Flood management in the target cities (Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine) was introduced by the representatives of CDCs/TDC. The process and system of collecting damage and disaster data and information was also introduced by the representatives of GAD. In the Interim Meeting, the consultant team introduced brief information on risk management and risk assessment, utilization of a statistical method for determining target scales, and utilization of satellite products. Flood disaster risk management and risk assessment were also discussed.

 Workshop on Flood Hazard Mapping (Date: 15 October 2015, Participants: member organizations of the Implementation Network of TA Part II) The importance and benefits of flood hazard maps were introduced and the contents of flood hazard maps were discussed in the workshop.

 Workshop on Flood Hazard Mapping in Yangon (Date: 25 January 2016, Participants: YCDC and other organizations relevant to flood management) A draft version of flood hazard maps was introduced and the contents of the maps were discussed.

 Workshop on Flood Hazard Mapping in Mawlamyine (Date: 26 January 2016, Participants: MWTDC and other organizations relevant to flood management) A draft version of flood hazard maps was introduced and the contents of the maps were discussed.

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 Workshop on Flood Hazard Mapping in Mandalay (Date: 28 January 2016, Participants: MCDC and other organizations relevant to flood management) A draft version of flood hazard maps was introduced and the contents of the maps were discussed.

7.5.2 Development and Implementation of Training Program A training program on flood disaster risk assessment was developed by focusing on flood damage to the agricultural sector and households as follows: (a) Date: 30 March – 1 April 2016 (at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office) (b) Participants: A total of 15 trainees, i.e., 13 officers from DMH and 2 officers from ID, joined the training on flood disaster risk assessment. Figure 7.5.1 shows photographs of the training.

Figure 7.5.1 Photos of the Training on Flood Disaster Risk Assessment from 30 March to 1 April 2016

(c) Contents of the training program:

[Basic Information of Risk Assessment] {60 min}  The basic information and importance of flood disaster risk assessment were introduced.

[Methodology of Risk Assessment] {60 min}  A method for agricultural damage assessment was introduced with examples of the Pampanga River Basin of the Philippines and the Solo River Basin of Indonesia.

[Hands-on Training on Flood Risk Assessment (Agricultural Damage)] {6 hr and 40 min}  Globally available land cover data for risk assessment activities were introduced.  Practical hands-on training on flood disaster risk assessment focusing on flood damage to agriculture (rice-crops) was conducted. Excel-based damage estimation tools were used in the practical hands-on training sessions.  For damage assessment, the output results of flood depth and duration from RRI Model simulation were used, and the trainees focused the Mandalay areas for damage assessment. Agricultural damage assessment in other areas such as Bago and Kale areas were also conducted.

[Hands-on Training on Preparation of Flood Disaster Risk Maps by using GIS] {80 min}  Flood disaster risk maps were prepared by using calculated results and GIS tools.

[Hands on Training on Flood Risk Assessment (Household Damage)] {60 min}  Globally available population data for risk assessment activities were introduced.  Practical hands-on training on flood disaster risk assessment was conducted, focusing on flood damage to house buildings and household goods.

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Table 7.5.1 Summary of Training on Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Date Activity Descriptions 30 March - Introduction to basic information and importance of flood disaster risk (half day) assessment - Introduction to a method of agricultural damage assessment with examples of the Pampanga River Basin of the Philippines and the Solo River Basin of Indonesia - Introduction to globally available land cover data - Hands-on training on flood disaster risk assessment focusing on the agricultural sector 31 March - Hands-on training on flood disaster risk assessment focusing on the agricultural sector 1 April - Hands-on training on preparation of flood disaster risk maps by using GIS (half day) - Introduction to globally available population data - Hands-on training on flood risk assessment (Household Damage)

Table 7.4.1 shows a summary of the training on flood disaster risk assessment. The capacity of the DMH and ID on flood disaster risk assessment was enhanced through the training program with practical hands-on training sessions as well as with theoretical knowledge.

7.6 Other Activities (Field Survey) In order to develop and improve flood inundation models, model calibration and validation by using the field observed data is indispensable. However, observed meteorological/hydrological data in Myanmar are limited. In such a case, field survey should be conducted to collect flood inundation information such as flood inundation depth, etc. In this TA, DMH and the consultant team conducted field survey in Nyaung Don Area on 18 May 2016. The aims of this survey were 1) to understand the importance of field survey, 2) to investigate actual flood conditions of the 2015 flood caused by Cyclone Komen, and 3) to learn how to obtain inundation depth from flood marks. Since flood marks are very important to verify actual flood conditions for the development of flood inundation models, it is strongly recommended that field survey on flood marks be carried out immediately after flood events.

Figure 7.6.1 Field Survey in Nyaung Don Area Figure 7.6.2 Field Survey in Nyaung Don Area (flood mark survey) (Recording the location of a flood mark with a handy GPS)

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Survey items are proposed as follows:  Names of sites  Locations (use a handy GPS, etc. for latitudes and longitudes)  Height of flood marks from the ground (ground height from the nearby road, etc., the elevation which can be identified later, should also be measured)  Date and Time of formulation of flood marks  Period and change of inundation  Photos  Observation date/time  Contact persons (if any, e.g. village leader)  Names of surveyors In addition, it is recommended that interview survey be also conducted to collect in-depth information on flood conditions, and that survey reports be produced.

7.7 Recommendations Recommendations for future training for the operation of the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model and for risk assessment are listed below:  The trainees should have basic knowledge of hydrology and hydraulics beforehand to fully understand the contents and should be equipped with basic computer skills for modeling.  The trainees should understand the characteristics of data (source, resolution, margin of error, etc.) that defines the meaning of simulation results, and continuous efforts should be made to improve the quality of data, which will result in upgrading the quality of simulation.  At present, GIS software is indispensable for hydrological/hydraulic modeling and preparation of maps, etc. Therefore, the trainees need to learn more about GIS with authorized applications. If it is difficult to obtain and use authorized GIS software, free GIS software including QGIS and DIVA GIS can be used for modeling and mapping.  The training course should be prepared based on the training programs developed in this TA for junior engineers to enhance the capacity and sustain and improve the quality of training itself.

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Chapter 8 TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management – Part II Flood Management

CHAPTER 8 THE WAY FORWARD: RECOMMENDATIONS

Based on the outputs and findings of TA-8456 Part II, this chapter highlights several recommendations that should be implemented to enhance flood management in Myanmar. The recommendations are presented in two parts: recommendations for DMH and recommendations for the implementation network organizations on flood management.

8.1 Recommendations for DMH TA-8456 Part II has reviewed the current activities and capacity of DMH to assist DMH in the enhancement of performance in flood management. TA-8456 introduces hydro-meteorological analysis (Chapter 4) and flood and storm-surge risk assessment (Chapter 5) to produce hazard and disaster risk information that is essential in flood and coastal flood management. Chapter 6 focuses on the challenges that should be urgently addressed and implemented based on the outcomes of the needs assessment and the objectives of MAPDRR (Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction). Four priority topics are selected in the business plan: 1) Enhancement of meteorological and hydrological monitoring; 2) Utilization of satellite images; 3) Assessment and mitigation of landslide disaster risk; and 4) Risk reduction by a timeline plan. Topics 1) and 2) are for the improvement of the current activities of DMH. Topic 3) is the utilization of DMH’s capacity for the assessment of landslide disaster risk, which is an urgent issue in Myanmar and requires the integration of different expertise from other organizations and universities in close cooperation with one another. Topic 4) focuses on the utilization of meteorological and hydrological information produced by DMH for organizations involved in flood disaster management to prepare for and respond to flood hazards and resulting disasters. These four topics require immediate attention to urgently meet the current needs of disaster risk reduction in Myanmar The recommendations for DMH activities focus on three issues: the improvement and utilization of flood hazard analysis, flood forecasting and warning, and capacity development, which are, though part of them are already addressed in the previous chapters, re-arranged and summarized to draw full attention to and provide an overall view of challenges of DMH.

8.1.1 Improvement and Utilization of Flood Hazard Analysis (1) Current challenges (Data availability)  Flood hazard simulation needs a variety of data such as meteorological and hydrological data, tidal data, and topographic data including river cross section, land use data, high flow measurement data, and records of past inundation. These data are essential in formulating and calibrating simulation models, but the current modeling is formulated based on limited information from ground observation; therefore, satellite global data are complementarily used in areas where ground observed data are scarce or unavailable. Such data are useful to develop a basic level of hazard analysis. But ground observed data are indispensable for calibration.

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(Variation in flood hazard)  Flood hazards can be very different even if they result from the same intensity of rainfall, depending on geomorphological conditions such as the shape of the cross section of rivers and land use. It should be noted that even if the intensity of rainfall is the same, the results of flood hazard analysis and inundation conditions will never be the same in the future because basic conditions will change.

(Identification of the target scale of the flood hazard for flood risk analysis and flood hazard mapping)  The target scale of the flood hazard needs to be determined in flood management to design structural measures. Flood hazard maps are also prepared based on the target scale to be used for emergency response and land use planning. The target scale should be decided based on the consensus among organizations concerned, but currently there is no official process and the meaning and necessity of target scales are not well recognized.

(2) Recommendations (Improvement of Data Management System)  Install rainfall stations for ground observation, especially in the mountain areas, with a certain unit density good enough for the stations to be able to provide representative areal rainfall.  Hourly tidal data is important for storm surge modeling and coastal flood hazard mapping.  Ground survey data or at least aerial survey data of topography are necessary for the detailed analysis of inundation to produce high-resolution flood hazard maps.  Regular survey of river cross sections is indispensable to identify the capacity of a river and thus accurately measure water levels; therefore, authorized organizations should conduct regular cross-section survey, especially in flood plains where the shape of a river is constantly changing. Re-analysis is required if river cross sections or other basic factors such as land use often change.  Establish a data collection, archiving and sharing system among organizations for the effective management and utilization of available data. Such archiving data should be digitized for efficient management.  Increase training opportunities for in-house engineers to become able to develop hydrological and hydraulic simulation models for flood hazard mapping and be aware of the necessity of improving the data management system.

(Create a platform for the common understanding of flood hazards)  Flood hazard analysis is a tool for flood management; therefore, all the organization involved in the flood management should understand the objective and meaning of outcomes. Flood hazard analysis is performed based on the target flood scale for the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and the production of flood hazard maps, and therefore target scales should be determined based on the consensus among organizations concerned. DMH is recommended to provide the basic knowledge and information of flood hazards and target scales to share among government organizations by creating a common platform to share information and discuss issues.  One important issue is, on the other hand, that the target scale once set for a flood hazard and

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Chapter 8 TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management – Part II Flood Management

the results of flood hazard analysis do not represent all possible flood hazards. There is a possibility that an extreme hazard event that exceeds the intensity of the target hazard occurs or that localized torrential rain may cause larger inundation in some area than the one caused by the target hazard. There is also a limitation of representation and resolution because of the current level and quality of available data. Such issues should also be informed by DMH and well recognized by other organizations concerned.

8.1.2 Flood Forecasting and Warning (1) Current issues (Flood forecasting)  Current flood forecasting is undertaken by observing the correlation between upstream water level and downstream water level, which is applicable in cases where the correlation is high and the flood arrival time is long enough to utilize the observation result from an upstream area for forecasting in a downstream area.  The reliability of this method depends on the assumption that the hydrological condition of the basin is the same, which means that accuracy will decrease when the hydrological condition changes. For example, changes of river cross sections may affect the discharge capacity of the river, and changes of river basin conditions such as land use or deforestation may affect the discharge volume from the basin to the river, which will result in changes in discharge volume and water level of the river even for the same rainfall.  Therefore, hydrological/hydraulic simulation using rainfall data and the latest data of hydrological conditions is more appropriate for flood forecasting under the changing conditions of the river basin. However, this method requires simulation models reflecting the latest conditions of the river and the river basin, real-time data collection and skills of engineers to process the simulation.

(Warning)  The dissemination of meteorological and hydrological hazard risk information in the form of warning based on flood forecasting should be one of the essential roles of DMH.  Warning messages should be easy to understand possible disaster risk. However, current warning messages are only in text format, showing hazard conditions in number and providing a general statement of disaster risk.

(2) Recommendations (Flood forecasting)  Utilize simulation models for flood hazard analysis to forecast future conditions.  Establish a real-time data collection and processing system for real-time simulation.  Improve the capacity of in-house engineers to develop and maintain flood forecasting systems using flood hazard simulation models such as the RRI model.

(Warning)  Visualize flood hazard information by showing temporal changes in water level of the river along with future prospects. Compare them with the ground elevation of the flood plain to

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understand and predict the level of danger easily.  Analyze and correlate the intensity of a flood hazard and resulting disaster risk, and show them in an understandable manner for non-engineers; for example, categorize the levels of risk and explain them in plain language, not in number.  Communicate with users of warning messages to improve the contents and methods of warning.

8.1.3 Capacity Development (1) Current issues  There is an urgent need to improve the capacity of officers to manage meteorological and hydrological simulation models such as the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model.  The current level of knowledge and skills to operate computers for modeling, as well as that of meteorology and hydrology, widely differs among officers.  Technical officers should comprehend the characteristics of data used for the simulation models, which means that they should be able to understand the accuracy and reliability of data and know how to improve them.

(2) Recommendations  Since the trainer candidates have acquired knowledge and experience through the series of training programs under TA, it is recommended to organize training programs on the RRI Model and the storm surge model to teach other engineers.  Training on the RRI Model and the storm surge model should be incorporated in the regular training of DMH program.  Besides training on specific modeling, a training curriculum for computer skills and basic meteorology and hydrology should be prepared based on the assessment of the current knowledge of trainees.  Hands-on training is necessary to understand the necessity and importance of ground observed data (in-situ data), as well as to understand the meanings of parameters and how they affect results through calibration. It is equally critical to understand how the accuracy of each data (meteorological and hydrological data, tidal data, topographic data including river cross section, land use data) will affect quantitative values resulting from simulation. The importance of high flow measurement and records of inundation (inundation area, depth and period) in calibration should be recognized. Benefits and limitations of global data should also be understood to formulate a plan to improve a data management system.  Trainers should always try to keep up with the latest information, knowledge and technology of simulation modeling.

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Chapter 8 TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management – Part II Flood Management

8.2 Recommendations for Implementation Network Organizations on Flood Management Recommendations for implementation network organizations on flood management focuses on further enhancement of the utilization of information generated in this TA, which are “Improvement of City Drainage”, “Utilization of Information for River Management” and “Enhancement of the Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction”. Since this TA provides the methodologies to produce fundamental information for flood management, the next step is the elaboration of implementation network organizations as users of information to develop a management system for disaster risk reduction utilizing generated information in addition to collecting more information that is necessary for the operation.

8.2.1 Improvement of City Drainage (1) Current challenges  In densely urbanized areas, temporal inland floods occur frequently because of the insufficient capacity of the current drainage system to cope with the inflow.  For prevention or reduction of inland floods in urbanized areas, the drainage system should be improved through proper designing and management.  For the improvement of the drainage system, the capacity of the existing drainage network should be investigated first, which requires a precise map of the sewer lines with elevations and diameters for hydraulic analysis. However, such information is currently rarely available.  Investigation of the current sewer conditions is also important for the estimation of the drainage capacity. Regular dredging work is necessary to keep the sewer system functioning.  For the improvement planning of the drainage system, hydraulic analysis is indispensable to evaluate the effectiveness of various measures.

(2) Recommendations  Investigate the existing drainage system to evaluate the current capacity of drainage through the collection of basic information such as routes and elevations of the drainage lines with their diameters, current conditions of the drainage lines (clogging by garbage or sedimentation, damage, etc.), capacity of pumps, operation rules of gates, etc.  Research the current inundation situations and problems (traffic jam, deterioration of hygiene conditions, etc.) caused by inundation to identify priority areas and issues.  Introduce a hydraulic model for analyzing the capacity of the drainage network and evaluating a future improvement plan. The effectiveness of dredging should also be assessed by the hydraulic model, because such analysis requires the evaluation of the entire capacity of the drainage lines from inlet to outlet. Though the RRI model is introduced in this TA, hydraulic analysis of the sewer lines requires a specialized model such as MIKE Series (released by DHI, Denmark) and NILIM 2.0 (released by NILIM Japan, free software), etc. The RRI model will provide information on river water level as the boundary condition of the outlet of the sewer lines and discharge volume on the ground surface that will drain into the sewer lines. The combination of both models should be established for analysis. One important note is that, in case of large flood events, the effect of the sewer lines is limited because such a flood is likely to exceed the capacity of the sewer pipes and they may not very effective. Meanwhile, in case of floods of an ordinary scale, i.e. floods of a few year-return periods, the benefit of rainfall water drainage should be large, especially in urban areas.

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 YCDC improved its rainfall drainage capacity by cleaning drainage lines (as of August 2016). This effect in prevention of inland flooding can be estimated quantitatively by using simulation models.

8.2.2 Utilization of Information for River Management (1) Current challenges  Currently river improvement works (construction of dams, dykes and gates, dredging, etc.) and river information (water level, water discharge volume, river cross section, rainfall in the river basin, topographic data and land use information in the river basin, etc.) are managed by several organizations.  Since a river is connected from the origin to the river mouth and the intervention at one place will affect the behavior of water at other places, river management should be undertaken to treat a river as one combined unit, and management activity should not focus on part of it.  The basic hydrological and hydraulic analysis for river management consists of the evaluation of discharge from the river basin, flow conditions in the river (volume, velocity, water level), and inundation conditions in case of flooding. Water quality is also an important component when environmental issues are concerned. Therefore, all related information should be collected and arranged for the analysis, and the results should be shared among all concerned organization to have a common view and vision for the formulation of river management planning.

(2) Recommendations  Create a data base system to share all information on river management among organization concerned.  Establish a monitoring system and standard to observe river conditions (water level, discharge volume, river cross section, etc.)  Formulate a simulation model for the comprehensive management of rivers  Identify common targets for river management and develop river management plans to enhance cooperation among organizations involved in river improvement and management. They should be well coordinated and assigned clear roles and responsibilities.

8.2.3 Enhancement of the Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction The basic concept of disaster risk assessment and utilization of assessment results for formulation of strategies for disaster risk reduction was introduced to the implementation network organizations in this TA (Chapter 5). The common understanding of risks among organizations concerned through risk assessment enhances the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction activities undertaken by each organization. This section presents two challenges. One is disaster damage data collection, which is the foundation of risk assessment. The other is the utilization of disaster risk assessment.

(1) Current challenges (Disaster damage data collection)  Damage data is collected by several organizations, but collection systems are not standardized and thus the contents of damage data are diverse. Since damage data is basic information to verify the efforts of disaster risk reduction and necessary to formulate damage curves for quantitative simulation of disaster risk, it should be accumulated systematically and managed

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properly.

(Utilization of disaster risk assessment)  Currently risk assessment is conducted by several organizations only by reviewing past disasters, and disaster risk assessment using simulation models is rarely conducted.  The needs assessment conducted in TA found that there is a strong need for capacity development to improve technical knowledge and skills on disaster risk assessment and management.  Needs for hazard maps, damage data and meteorological and hydrological data also exist among organizations.

(Recommendations) (Disaster damage data collection)  Prepare basic guidelines and formats for the collection of damage data to assess damage. The contents of data should be properly designed to represent damage for each damaged item appropriately and quantitatively.  Create a digitized damage data archiving system to arrange data appropriately and share them among organization concerned, which is indispensable to investigate the correlation between hazard intensity and resulting damage to develop damage curves for disaster risk assessment.

(Utilization of disaster risk assessment)  Introduce the mechanism of flood disasters, the basic concept and procedure of flood risk assessment and the utilization of flood risk assessment for strategy formulation not only for the engineers of government offices but also for non-engineers relevant to flood disaster risk reduction in an understandable manner. Ensure a capacity development system to help government officers understand disaster risk properly, so they can avoid, for example, planning development in hazardous areas without countermeasures. Capacity development activities should also be introduced to all stakeholders including local people to enhance the understanding of flood disaster risk through, for example, advocacy campaign and town meeting.  Undertake case studies of disaster risk assessment for organizations concerned to learn detailed steps to implement actual risk assessment activities.  Establish a risk assessment process in the government system by assigning responsible organizations for each step of the procedure, which starts from assessing a hazard, to identifying exposure and vulnerability of each item, and to simulating disaster risk.  Formulate strategies for disaster risk reduction under the well-coordinated cooperation among organizations concerned. Identify prospective disaster risk and simulate the remaining risk after the implementation of strategies by applying risk assessment to verify the effectiveness of strategies. “Build back better” should be the key concept of strategies in the recovery process after disasters, and it can be realized through the development of strategies based on the assessment of hazards and resulting disaster risk.

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