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Home , Polar climate

THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING SEA

David Barber, Louis Fortier, and Michael Byers

In the disaster blockbuster, “The Day After Tomorrow,” the shrinking of polar ice caused by change unleashes an extreme weather Armaggedon which, among other things, sees the Statue of Liberty engulfed by a tidal wave. The predictions offered here by David Barber, Louis Fortier and Michael Byers are less cataclysmic but equally compelling. In relaying the scientific evidence and outlining the ecological, economic and political impacts of polar climate change, Barber, Fortier and Byers present a chilling case for heading off doomsday.

Dans The Day After Tomorrow, la fonte de la calotte glaciaire provoque un raz-de- marée sans précédent qui engloutit notamment la statue de la liberté. Certes moins catastrophiques, les prédictions que font ici David Barber, Louis Fortier et Michael Byers n’en donnent pas moins froid dans le dos. S’appuyant sur des observations scientifiques, ils inventorient les répercussions écologiques, économiques et politiques des changements du climat polaire et brossent de ses conséquences un tableau franchement alarmant.

or centuries, significant resources have been expend- culation driven by the seasonal global balance in net ener- ed in search of the , or as Pierre gy. An oscillating planetary energy balance is established F Berton once called it; the “ Grail.” Franklin, with net positive surplus at the equator and net loss at the Davis, Ray, Baffin, Amendment, Blot, Monk, and Perry are poles. Seasonal modulation of this general pattern is driven just a few of the names that have gone down in history for by the fact that the planet’s axis of rotation is 23.4° offset their quest for the shortest route from Europe to Asia. It was from the perpendicular. This means that solar insolation is that foiled the best laid routes and provided the sus- much larger at the equator than at the poles, and this sets pense and intrigue we are all now familiar with. The waxing up (at least in a first order fashion) the that create and waning of sea ice movement in the northern hemi- polar sea ice. It also results in an overall planetary energy sphere has long created seasons when a ship could sail easi- balance with opposing signs at each pole, which helps to ly through Baffin Bay, while in other years “rivers” of ice establish a planetary-wide circulation of heat from the equa- flushed down from the Lincoln Sea towards the tor poleward and vice-versa. coast. The high variability experienced by these explorers In the Arctic, sea ice forms annually throughout most of was the norm of the day. the area north of the whenever the ocean dips However, things do appear to be changing, and these below -1.8°C. Maximum volume of ice occurs around the trends are cause for concern. In recent years, scientists, end of March, with an area of about 14 million km2. through the media, have been informing the public about Perennial ice occurs throughout the and Arctic developments concerning sea ice in our northern hemi- basins in the , and annual ice grows over the shal- sphere. Articles such as “As Polar Ice Turns to Water, Dreams low continental shelves northward to meet the southern of Treasure Abound” (the New York Times) recall the eco- advance of the perennial pack. Reduction in this maximal nomic forces at play several centuries ago, while making a extent occurs throughout the summer until a mini- scientifically based prediction that the may mum of about 7 million km2 is reached, sometime around become the next, and likely one of the last, of our great the end of September. oceans to exploit, conserve and protect. Climate models converge on a single feature: they pre- dict the first and strongest signals of global-scale climate ea ice occurs at both poles as a result of large scale vari- change to occur in the high latitudes of our planet. These S ations in solar insolation (incoming solar radiation or models predict a reduction in sea ice extent over the next the sun’s rays) and changes in oceanic and atmospheric cir- several decades, resulting in a seasonally ice-free Arctic as

66 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2005 - JANVIER 2006 The incredible shrinking sea ice early as 2050. Observational studies, ice will be less of a problem for nurse their pups in dens built inside based on the passive microwave satel- marine vessel transport if the current sea-ice ridges. Juvenile Arctic cod, lite record, confirm these predictions trends continue. which live in the anfractuosities of the for both rates of reduction and, to a Many researchers believe that the pack where they are protected from certain extent, geographic location. will be one of the their predators and find abundant crus- We lose, on average, about 74,000 first to open, since the remnant pack tacean prey, synthesize antifreeze pro- km2 of sea ice extent each year, and we tends to shift toward North America teins that prevent their blood from have lost about 2,000,000 km2 since under current forcing. Two of us were freezing at the sub-zero temperatures 1979. The record of minimums has in fact aboard a Russian ice-breaker in prevailing in the ice. Key Arctic cope- become rather common in the instru- September 2005, and there was no ice pods have developed sophisticated mental record, with the minimum on of any significance to shipping along reproduction strategies to match the hatching of their eggs with Climate models converge on a single feature: they predict the the short season of produc- first and strongest signals of global-scale climate change to tion of ice algae. In addition to microalgae, bacteria occur in the high latitudes of our planet. These models dwell in the high-salinity predict a reduction in sea ice extent over the next several brine channels among the decades, resulting in a seasonally ice-free Arctic as early as sea-ice matrix and are active 2050. Observational studies, based on the passive microwave at temperatures as low as -22 C. Life in the Arctic seas satellite record, confirm these predictions for both rates of begins in mid-spring, when reduction and, to a certain extent, geographic location. the covers become sufficiently thin to allow record being that of 2005. It is impor- the entire route of the Northeast enough sunlight to reach the base of tant to note that this reduction repre- Passage (between and ). the ice. The light reaching the ice-water sents a switch from perennial ice (i.e., The situation with multiyear sea interface triggers the growth of ice- multiyear ice) to annual ice (i.e., first- ice in the Northwest Passage is some- dwelling microalgae. As the ice cover year ice). The issue of a reduction in ice what more complex. Historically, mul- breaks up in early summer, sunlight thickness (volume), although more tiyear ice has moved into the penetrates deeper into the ocean and difficult to measure, also suggests an archipelago through the channels on free-floating microalgae known as phy- overall reduction. Recent results pro- the western side of the archipelago toplankton start blooming. Minute vide compelling evidence for an over- (e.g., , McClure Strait crustaceans called copepods (from 0.2 all volume and small channels on the western to 2 cm long) emerge from hibernation decrease of 32 percent, most of which edge of the QEIs). When the multiyear at depth to graze on the ice algae and resulted from a reduction in thickness pack regularly extended southwards to phytoplankton. The copepods are of ice over 2 m (i.e., multiyear). This the Tuktoyuktuk Peninsula we could preyed upon by the ubiquitous Arctic coincided with an increase in the find multiyear sea ice in Amundsen cod, a small (25-30 cm) sluggish cousin extent of open water and young ice of Gulf. In recent years, the pack ice edge of the Atlantic cod that in turn is the between 20 and 30 percent. has retreated north, and it now lies at main staple of seals, belugas, Minimum sea ice concentration the northern limit of McClure Strait. and many species of sea birds. At the (SIC) is defined as 15 percent concen- Once this edge retreats beyond the top of the food chain, the tration, and is computed for the end of entrance way to McClure Strait we can preys almost exclusively on the ring September of each year using the expect a dramatic reduction in the seal, whereas man hunts any large prey, SMMR and SSM/I passive microwave amount of multiyear sea ice moving including the polar bear. The fat record (National Snow and Ice Data into the Northwest Passage. Given the reserves accumulated in summer by the Centre [NSIDC]). current trajectory, this will likely hap- small herbivore copepods sustain them The timing of the reduction in pen in the next decade. during the long winter months and the perennial ice cover is important, sustain their predators throughout the both from biophysical and socio- fter a million years of evolution, annual cycle. As their icy habitat economic perspectives. The barriers A Arctic species present unique fea- shrinks and thins, these highly special- to navigation have historically been tures and life cycles that reflect adapta- ized organisms face the double threat caused by multiyear sea ice, because it tion to life on, in and under sea ice. of displacement by less specialized tem- is thicker and harder than first-year The polar bear is impressively suited to perate species, and extinction. At the sea ice. The decrease in the summer detect and kill seals in the whiteness of root of the food chain, ice algae are minimum means that multiyear sea the pack ice. Seals give birth to and more abundant, more productive and

POLICY OPTIONS 67 DECEMBER 2005 - JANUARY 2006 David Barber, Louis Fortier and Michael Byers

more diversified in the thin, soft and immigrated fish will be slow and the nvironmentalists will rightly per- porous annual ice than in the thick, stocks will be highly vulnerable to E ceive it as a tragic loss to the glob- hard and dense multiyear ice. Thus, in over fishing. The richer, biologically al ecosystem. Neo-liberals already see the short term, the replacement of more productive surface waters of an it as a potential Klondike. In any case, multi year ice by first-year ice and a ice-free Artic Ocean will contribute to there is no doubt that the unregulated general thinning of the snow and ice the sequestration of atmospheric car- exploitation of the new or newly covers could lead to higher micro algal bon, thus mopping up some of the accessible resources of the Arctic will production. In the longer term, the greenhouse gases emitted by human end in catastrophe, as it has in other more productive phytoplankton will industry. On the other hand, sea-ice oceans. Hence the importance of replace the ice algae as the ice season reflects 90 percent of the sun’s radia- Canada strongly asserting its Arctic shortens and the Arctic Ocean becomes tion into space, compared to less than sovereignty and its authority to con- ice-free in summer. Fewer ice algae and 30 percent for open waters. Therefore, trol and manage the exploitation of a longer phytoplankton bloom will an ice-free Arctic Ocean will absorb the resources of its Arctic shelf, includ- mean an overall more productive much more heat from the sun, accel- ing the straits of the Canadian peripheral Arctic Ocean. Archipelago. In addition to Therefore, an ice-free Arctic Ocean fisheries, changing ice condi- owever, a shift in micro will absorb much more heat from tions in the Northwest Passage H algal production toward an the sun, accelerating the warming could provide a sea route earlier and longer phytoplank- between Asia and Europe that ton bloom will also spell the of the Northern Hemisphere, and all is 7,000 kilometres shorter replacement of Arctic copepods preliminary calculations indicate that than the route through the by Atlantic cousins that are the increase in the radiative heat Panama Canal. The passage already becoming common in balance of the Arctic will far exceed could also accommodate super- Arctic seas. Coupled with a tankers and container ships reduction in sea ice habitat and a any reduction of the greenhouse that are too large for the canal. warming of the ocean surface effect. The on-going reduction of Some Japanese and American layer, the “atlantification” of the sea ice presages a biologically more companies are already building plankton will have a tremendous productive and more diverse Arctic ice-strengthened vessels. But, impact on the capacity of the any shipping involves the risk Arctic cod to resist displacement Ocean that will, however, differ little of accidents, particularly oil by temperate fishes. Such a dis- from the northernmost reaches of spills, and authority to regu- placement is already observed in the Atlantic. There is no common late foreign vessels in the pas- northern , where a scale against which to compare the sage could soon be lost, since shift in the diet of seabirds from any foreign ship that transits nearly pure Arctic cod in the loss of biodiversity and the gain in without seeking permission 1980s to a 50-50 mixture of cod biological productivity that will undermines Canada’s sover- and capelin nowadays has been result from the “atlantification” of eignty claim. attributed to the lengthening of the Arctic Ocean. The history of Canada’s the ice-free season. Less ice habi- claim to the Northwest Passage tat and fewer Arctic cod will also affect erating the warming of the Northern is fraught with confusion and indeci- the ring seal, potentially bringing about Hemisphere, and all preliminary cal- sion. Initially, it seemed that title over its replacement by more coastal species culations indicate that the increase in the waterway did not matter, because such as the harbour seal, with devastat- the radiative heat balance of the of the nearly impenetrable ice. Still, a ing consequences for the polar bear and Arctic will far exceed any reduction of claim to the water was at least implicit the traditional hunting activities of the the greenhouse effect. The ongoing in an assertion, first made in the late . reduction of sea ice presages a biolog- 19th century, that Canada owned Given the observed rate of the ically more productive and more everything between the 60th and 141st northward progression of temperate diverse Arctic Ocean that will, howev- meridians of longitude all the way to fish in response to the warming of the er, differ little from the northernmost the . But, apart from the Atlantic Ocean, new fisheries reaches of the Atlantic. There is no Soviet Union, which attempted a simi- resources could develop rapidly over common scale against which to com- lar claim, other countries rejected the the next century in an ice-free Arctic pare the loss of biodiversity and the sector theory. Ocean. However, given the low tem- gain in biological productivity that In 1969, an American oil company peratures that will always prevail in will result from the “atlantification” sent an ice-strengthened tanker, the SS polar waters, the growth of newly of the Arctic Ocean. Manhattan, on a test voyage through the

68 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2005 - JANVIER 2006 The incredible shrinking sea ice

Is the melting? It certainly is shrinking, with more open water and serious implications for the Inuit way of life, for the food chain from top to bottom, for the environment and Canada's sovereignty.

passage. The company, which was co- ments on all shipping within 100 that the passage, at its narrowest operating closely with the US govern- nautical miles of the Arctic coast. points, is less than 24 nautical miles ment, made a point of not seeking The claimed right to pollution pre- across. As the Canadian government permission from Canada. Ottawa made a vention jurisdiction was contrary to explained, the overlapping territorial point of granting permission, and even international law, which at the time seas meant that foreign vessels mak- sent an icebreaker to assist, and subse- did not recognize coastal state rights ing the passage could be subject to quently argued that the unsolicited per- beyond the territorial sea. But it was the full range of its domestic laws. At mission prevented the voyage from subsequently made legal by the 1982 the same time, Canada began argu- undermining its claim. A more convinc- United Nations Convention on the ing that the straits and channels ing defence of sovereignty came from an Law of the Sea, which allows coastal between the islands were “historic unexpected source. As the SS Manhattan states to impose laws against mari- internal waters.” ploughed through the ice near Resolute time pollution out to 200 nautical This argument rested on the fact Bay, two Inuit hunters drove their miles when virtually year-round ice that most of the archipelago had been dogsleds into its path. The vessel ground creates exceptional navigational haz- mapped by British explorers prior to the to a halt, until the hunters — having ards. A second piece of legislation transfer of title, and few non- made their point — moved aside. extended the territorial sea from 3 to consensual transits had occurred. The following year, Parliament 12 nautical miles. This move was less Canada also pointed out that the Inuit adopted the Arctic Waters Pollution controversial, since 60 other coun- — who are Canadian citizens — had Prevention Act, imposing stringent tries had made similar claims. Its travelled and lived on the ice for mil- safety and environmental require- immediate relevance lay in the fact lennia. There was, however, some con-

POLICY OPTIONS 69 DECEMBER 2005 - JANUARY 2006 David Barber, Louis Fortier and Michael Byers

tradiction between the territorial sea extent of coastal state jurisdiction along know the land and ice and provide an and historic internal waters arguments, fragmented coastlines. Canada invoked effective — if slow-moving — search- since internal waters are by definition its prior claim of historic internal waters and-rescue capability, yet their abilities not territorial sea. The confusion gave in support of its new baselines, arguing are dwarfed by the expanse in which strength to the US position, which that its title to the waters within the they operate: Canada is the world’s holds that the passage is an “interna- baselines — which by definition are second largest country, and more than tional strait.” International straits are internal waters — was consolidated by 40 percent of it is Arctic. narrower in breadth than the adjoining historic usage. The argument was rein- In practice, neither fisheries laws territorial seas but, because they join forced in 1993 by the Land nor the Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention Act can be applied. And as In practice, neither fisheries laws nor the Arctic Waters the ice disappears, Canada’s sovereignty claim is vulnera- Pollution Prevention Act can be applied. And as the ice ble to more foreign vessels, disappears, Canada’s sovereignty claim is vulnerable to more including submarines, using foreign vessels, including submarines, using the Northwest the Northwest Passage with- Passage without seeking permission — as they might wish to out seeking permission — as they might wish to do in do in order to evade Canada’s environmental laws. order to evade Canada’s environmental laws. two expanses of high seas, they are Claims Agreement, whereby the Prime Minister Paul Martin open to foreign shipping with almost Canadian government and the Inuit declared in November 2004 that sover- no restrictions. More than commercial affirmed that “Canada’s sovereignty eignty “is an issue which is becoming shipping was at issue. During the Cold over the waters of the even more important, given climate War, the was concerned is supported by Inuit use and occupan- change and the opening of the to maintain open access for its Navy, cy.” The historic consolidation argu- Northwest Passage to transportation, especially its submarines. Under the law ment is also supported by several and the environmental problems that of the sea, submarines may pass judgments of the International Court of may flow from that.” Some steps are through an international strait without Justice. However, Canada’s overall now being taken. Auroras are being surfacing or otherwise alerting the adja- claim is weakened by the fact that it equipped with infra-red sensors, and cent coastal state or states, something lacks enforcement capability. Despite unmanned aerial vehicles are being not permitted in territorial waters. having the world’s longest coastline, acquired to provide long-range surveil- In 1985, the US Coastguard ice- much of it ice-covered most of the time, lance at lower cost. As of 2006, breaker Polar Sea sailed through the pas- Canada has never possessed an ice- Radarsat-2, a federally funded remote sage, again without seeking permission. breaker capable of operating in the sensing satellite will provide up-to- Ottawa once again made a point of grant- Arctic year-round. In 1985, the date, high resolution imaging on ing permission; it even asked to place sev- Canadian government announced that demand — giving Canada the ability eral “observers” on board. Remarkably, it would build a powerful all-season ice- to track surface vessels from space. Yet Washington acceded to the request, breaker. But fiscal restraint quickly more needs to be done. strengthening Canada’s argument that became a greater priority than sover- Canada offers a registration service the transit was consensual, and even eignty, and the contract was cancelled. to all ships entering its northern waters. promised to provide advance notice of Canada’s does have a fleet of But the service has always been volun- any future transits by Coastguard vessels. Aurora patrol aircraft which were are tary. Making registration in the Arctic Yet it still made a point of publicly dis- now used mostly for fisheries protec- mandatory would bolster sovereignty. puting the sovereignty claim. Following tion. But only one or two flights per The Department of National the voyage of the Polar Sea, Canada again year are devoted to “sovereignty asser- Defence is deliberating whether to modified its legal position. Central to the tion.” The Canadian Airborne install high-frequency surface-wave new position was the drawing of straight Regiment was once able to deploy radar at the entrances to the passage. baselines linking the outer headlands of 1,000 soldiers on short notice any- The time for deliberation is over. The the archipelago. where in Canada, but it was disbanded information obtained would be useful after paratroopers tortured and killed a to the Canadian Forces and Coastguard s the result of a decision by the Somali teenager. Canada’s sovereignty and the presence of the installations A International Court of Justice in a claim is defended primarily by the would strengthen Canada’s legal posi- dispute between Britain and Norway, Canadian Rangers: 1,600 part-time tion. At least two all-season Arctic ice- strait baselines had become a legally volunteers who live in 58 hamlets scat- breakers are needed — one each for the accepted means for determining the tered across the North. The Rangers eastern and western Arctic.

70 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2005 - JANVIER 2006 The incredible shrinking sea ice

One or more of these vessels could It does not serve the interests of so as to slow and eventually halt cli- be outfitted to conduct the types of sci- either country to have foreign ves- mate change, before it is too late. The ence currently being done aboard the sels shielded from those laws, and Arctic is our canary in the coal mine. NGCC Amundsen. Several helicopters most of international law, by main- should be based near the northwest taining that the passage is an inter- David Barber is associate dean passage to provide search-and-rescue national strait. (research); Clayton H. Riddell Faculty of and ensure that suspicious vessels are Given what we know about feed- Environment, , and Resources; boarded and inspected. backs in the Arctic system, it is Canada Research Chair in Arctic System Most importantly, it is time to increasingly likely that sea ice reduc- Science; and director, Centre for Earth persuade Washington to change its tion will not be reversed. The mini- Observation Science, University of outdated position. Today, the United mum we reached in 2005 has never Manitoba. Louis Fortier is a professor of States is more concerned about ter- before been seen in any of our instru- biology and Canada Research Chair on rorists finding a back door to North mental records and the projection of the Response of Marine Arctic America, or rogue states using the a seasonally ice free Arctic by about Ecosystems to Climate Change, oceans to transport weapons of mass 2050 has not been seen on planet ArcticNet, Department of Biology, destruction, than it is about foreign Earth for at least a million years. As a Université Laval. Michael Byers is submarines. In the Arctic, these new polar country, Canada has a particular Canada Research Chair in Global threats could just as easily be han- interest and responsibility to protect Politics and International Law, dled by a strengthened Canadian the fragile Arctic and its indigenous University of British Columbia. This Coastguard and Navy, whose abili- peoples. But that should not distract paper is a contribution of ArcticNet, a ties would be enhanced if Canada’s from the more urgent policy impera- new network of centres of excellence domestic laws could fully be applied. tive: reduce greenhouse gas emissions (www.arcticnet-ulaval.ca/)

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POLICY OPTIONS 71 DECEMBER 2005 - JANUARY 2006