UMR 225 IRD - Paris-Dauphine DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL DT/2015-03 Determinants of Mexico-US outward and return migration flows: A state-level panel data analysis Isabelle CHORT Maëlys DE LA RUPELLE UMR DIAL 225 Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny 75775 • Paris •Tél. (33) 01 44 05 45 42 • Fax (33) 01 44 05 45 45 • 4, rue d’Enghien • 75010 Paris • Tél. (33) 01 53 24 14 50 • Fax (33) 01 53 24 14 51 E-mail :
[email protected] • Site : www.dial.ird.fr Determinants of Mexico-US outward and return migration flows: A state-level panel data analysis∗ Isabelle Chorty Ma¨elysde la Rupellez August 1, 2015 Abstract This paper explores the impact of economic, environmental factors and violence in Mexico on Mexico-US migration patterns. We estimate a microgrounded grav- ity model of migration using a unique panel dataset of state-to-state outward and return migration flows between Mexico and the US from 1995 to 2012. We exploit the time and dyadic dimension of the data to control for characteristics of destina- tion states, including migration policies. Income is found to have a positive impact on migration outflows, especially for Mexican origin states with a recent migration history, and for low-educated migrant flows, suggestive of the existence of credit constraints. We find evidence of drought driven outmigration, while climatic shocks in Mexico do not affect return flows. Violence appears to negatively impact both outward and return flows. Finally, income has a negative effect on return flows, consistent with the existence of savings targets.