2004-2010 Andalusian Environment Plan CHAPTER II: ANALYSIS OF THE STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT IN ANDALUSIA Regional Ministry of the Environment of Andalusia 2004-2010 JUNTA DE ANDALUCIA 27 2004-2010 Andalusian Environment Plan CHAPTER II: ANALYSIS OF THE STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT IN ANDALUSIA The 2004-2010 Andalusian Environment Plan seeks to take forward a sustainable development model capable of rising above existing environmental deficits whilst adding value to the strengths of the environment in Andalusia. Moreover, the new Plan seeks to respond to emerging challenges, avoiding future imbalances whilst taking advantage of existing opportunities in Andalusia. The 2004-2010 AEP is inspired by the new environmental and sustainable development guidelines set forth at the international level, particularly by the EU and the OECD. However, it must also consider the current situation in Andalusia, assessing those areas in which progress has been made, as well as those in which the deficits have not been redressed. From this perspective, it is necessary to perform an analysis of the current situation of the environment in Andalusia, assessing its evolution and potential trends. In short, it is a question of reflecting the environmental situation in Andalusia, with a view to establishing objectives conducive to achieving sustainability. Moreover, it is necessary to determine the impact of the previous Plan on the Andalusian environment, assessing the positive and negative effects of the programmes. For this reason, the second part of this chapter tackles with the assessment of the 1997-2002 Environment Plan, from a quantitative and qualitative perspective, as a benchmark for environmental planning. This section details the progress made in achieving the objectives established in the Plan, as well as the projects and actions implemented in each policy area. This dual approach reveals the environmental evolution and current environmental trends in Andalusia, identifying emerging or existing environmental deficits that have not been redressed by the previous AEP, and proposing the orientation of the new guidelines for the 2004-2010 Andalusian Environment Plan. 28 2004-2010 Andalusian Environment Plan 2.1. State of the environment in Andalusia A far-reaching environmental assessment approach is used to address different policy areas related to key environmental fields of interest in Andalusia. POLICY AREAS Population and territory Natural resources Livestock trails and ecological corridors Protected natural reserves Coastal areas Urban environment Environment and contingencies Environment and economics Research, technology development and innovation Environment and society International co-operation In view of the progress achieved over the last years, this analysis focuses on the description of the current situation, identifying current trends: the aim is to identify the most relevant aspects that will clearly explain temporal evolution and current trends, rather than to provide a detailed description of each parameter. The annual Environmental Report, drafted by the Regional Ministry of the Environment of the Regional Government of Andalusia, provides information that is more detailed. 2.1.1. Population and territory POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION Andalusia, with a surface area of 87,597 km2, is one of the largest regions in the European Union, comparable to Portugal or the Benelux countries (Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg). Spain has a total surface area of 505,988 km2, with a population of 41,800,000 inhabitants. The total surface area of the European Union is 3,191,120 km2, with a population of approximately 376,550,000 inhabitants. Moreover, Andalusia is the most populated region in Spain, with 7,478,432 inhabitants6, and, although the population density (85.4 inhab/km2) is lower than the European average (118 inhab/km2), it is higher than the Spanish average (82.7 inhab/km2). Andalusia is at the head of the Spanish Autonomous Communities by population, with an increase in birth rates that until recently accounted for one of the highest vegetative growths in the country; however, this rate has declined at the regional and national level. Therefore, the population is relatively young, with stable age segments. In years past, the region was an emigrant exporting region; however, currently it is an immigrant 29 2004-2010 Andalusian Environment Plan recipient region. From the territorial distribution perspective, the province of Seville has the largest population, 23.5% of the total population of Andalusia, followed by Malaga and Cadiz with 17.8% and 15.2%, respectively. Granada accounts for approximately 10% (10.9%), and Cordova 10.3%, whereas Jaen, Almeria and Huelva are the provinces with less population with 8.6%, 7.3% and 6.2%, respectively. Although there was an absolute population increase in the 1960s, the demographic boom took place in the 1970s, with a total population growth of approximately 1.5 million inhabitants over the last thirty years. The population growth analysis by municipality size evidences a higher growth rate, over the last thirty years, in settlements with more than 100,000 inhabitants in relation to other municipalities. The highest growth rate for this group and the municipalities with 50,000–100,000 inhabitants occurred in the 1970s to the mid-1980s, whereas the smaller settlements experienced zero population growth or a downturn. The Requirements and Strategies of the Andalusian Land Management Plan divide the population distribution trends by municipalities into four groups: - The large cities (more than 100,000 inhabitants), have shown a positive increase over the past century, with an absolute growth of more than 2.5 million inhabitants. The figure has grown from 8% of the total population in 1900 to more than 37% in the 1990s. The current figure represents more than 38.5% of population. The trend throughout this period has been characterized by a strong growth until the 1980s, subsequently declining until our days. - The medium-size cities (20,000-100,000 inhabitants), like the previous group, have shown a positive trend, with a total population growth of more than 1.25 million inhabitants. The growth rate has been consistent throughout the period. In 1900, 18% of the population lived in medium-size cities, whereas in the 1990s the figure rose to more than 25%. - Although the small cities (5,000-20,000 inhabitants) have shown a moderate growth in absolute terms – in excess of 0.5 million inhabitants -, the trend is regressive in relative terms. The total population declined from 39% at the beginning of the 20th century to 23% in the 1990s. Currently, the percentage is in line with the latter value. - Rural communities (fewer than 5,000 inhabitants) are the only settlements in which the overall population has declined over the last century. The most negative development has taken place in smaller settlements; however, this trend has slowed down in recent years, with signs of stagnation or slight demographic recovery. If the population distribution trends are analyzed by geo-economic areas, the mountain areas are the most negatively affected. The decrease in the number of medium-size and small cities that normally make up the rural sphere of influence evinces this process. 6 Population in Andalusia, 2001 Population census 30 2004-2010 Andalusian Environment Plan Conversely, the coastal areas and the Guadalquivir valley are the areas in which the settlements have developed positively since the middle of the last century. The number of medium-size cities in these areas has increased, especially in the main urban areas. STRUCTURE OF POPULATION According to the 2003 Municipal Population Census, the population structure by gender in the Autonomous Community of Andalusia consists of 3,849,478 women and 3,757,370 men; consequently, there are 1.21% more women than men. The situation by provinces is similar except in Almeria, where the trend is reverse. With respect to the population by age, nearly 54% belong to the age group 15–49 years, according to the abovementioned sources. Moreover, 23% of the population is under 20 years, whereas approximately 15% of Andalusians is 65 years and over. The child population has experienced a significant decline over the past 15 years; however, the trend for the next 5 years is expected to change significantly, with a substantial increase in the number of children, owing mainly to the high birth rate among migrants. When the estimated figures provided by the Andalusian Statistics Institute in their 1998-2051 Andalusian population forecast are compared with the actual figures of the 2003 Municipal Population Census, the under 15 years old age group has increased by 32,000 inhabitants, and the total population of Andalusia has increased by more than 142.000 inhabitants. This population growth is common to all Andalusian provinces; however, the largest increase has taken place in Malaga and Seville, followed by Cadiz and Almeria. The population growth in Cordova and Jaen has been less significant than in the other provinces. Figure 2. Population forecast of Andalusia by provinces. Years - 2004, 2010 & 2016. Source: Andalusian Statistics Institute. SIMA, Database. 31 2004-2010 Andalusian Environment Plan NATURAL MOVEMENT AND MIGRATIONS The crude birth rate in Andalusia for 2002 (11.14) is higher than the Spanish average (10.11), however, the crude death rate in Andalusia for this same year (8.40) is lower than the national rate (8.90). This situation reveals a positive, natural growth of the Andalusian population, with a vegetative growth of 20,162 inhabitants in 2002. Although the birth rate is higher than the mortality rate, the former has declined substantially over the last 15 years due, on the one hand, to the decrease in the average number of children per woman of childbearing age - from 1.82 children per woman in 1987 to 1.36 children per woman in 2002 -, and, on the other hand, to the increase in the average childbearing age, which was over 30 years in 2002.