MONSOON UPDATE Pakistan
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MONSOON UPDATE Pakistan Issue 04 | 10 August 2012 This report identifies the current trends, events, and short term forecast associated with the 2012 monsoon season. OVERVIEW • Monsoon rainfall in Pakistan during the month of July was 43 per cent below average. • The heavy monsoon spell experienced from 3 to 5 August resulted in the loss of lives and livelihoods in north-eastern Punjab and the adjoining regions. • Mild to moderate drought conditions prevail along the Balochistan coast and south-western regions. • More rainfall is expected from 9 to15 August across northern Paksitan, especially in north-eastern Punjab. CURRENT SITUATION The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) indicates that monsoon the rainfall was 43 per cent below average in July. The provincial rainfall patterns for the same period were estimated at 91 per cent below average for Sindh, 34 per cent for Balochistan, 29 per cent for Punjab and 43 per cent for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). As of 8 August, the rains accounted for 34 percent of the monthly monsoon average. The PMD reports a relatively mild impact of the El Nino phenomenon, associated with warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which results in reduced rainfall in the sub-continent. However, parts of central and upper Punjab, and adjoining regions of AJK and KP, received a relatively strong monsoon spell from 3 to 5 August. Heavy rain was also experienced in Sibi District and adjoining areas of Balochistan from 6 to 7 August. Water Reservoir Levels: The Indian monsoon season indicates nearly 20 per cent The water level in Tarbela Dam was 1,495 feet on 9 August below normal rainfall so far, and the Indian Metrological with an optimum capacity of 1,550 feet. In Mangla Dam Department has indicated the possibility of drought in water level was 1,164 feet, against 1,242 feet capacity. These parts of the country. There are concerns about low crop are less than the aggregate levels of the last five years. productivity according to media reports. Impact of the 3-5 August Rain Spell: • The impact was largely focused on northeast Punjab and press reports indicated that nine people died due to the collapse of mud houses, electrocution or sudden flooding in rain water channels. • Lahore, Rawalpindi and Gujranwala experienced urban flooding. • The Chenab River recorded a medium flood level, which caused population movement and crop losses within the flood plains in Sialkot, Gujrat, and Mandi Bahauddin Canal Breaches: districts. The Maggasin Canal in Muzafargarh District, southern • Numerous flooded water channels in Sialkot District caused Punjab, experienced a breach in the first week of July, which temporary population movement and losses to crops. was plugged promptly. However, population and crops in • Rescue 1122 effectively supported emergency responses Basti Garhi village and adjoining areas were affected, and in the affected districts. local NGOs supported the ensuing emergency response by the local authorities. Pakistan Monsoon Update # 4 | 1 Pakistan Monsoon Update # 4 | 2 MONSOONPAKISTAN: M EVENTSoonsoon S i&tu aIMPACTtion Update - 04 August - 10 August 2012 and Anticipated Impact Legend !J. Urban Flooding Gilgit District Prone to Flash Floods Swat Kohistan District Prone to Flash & Riverine Floods River Kabul: Low/Medium Flood wat Neelum Jammu Affected by Chenab Flood S Mansehra K KP Muzaffarabad & ab Tarbela ul Hattian Mild Drought Peshawar Mardan Kashmir River Indus: Moderate Drought Low Flood FATA Islamabad R!Jawalpindi Mangla Mianwali Gujrat m Mandi Bahauddin lu Sialkot Tank e Gujranwala Jh ab Dera en !J Ismail Ch Lahore River Chenab: Khan Bhakkar !J Medium Flood 4-5 August s vi u a R Musakhel d n District Sibi: I Punjab Districts affected by Chenab Flood: Dera Heavy rains causing local damage 6-7 August Quetta Ghazi Sialkot, Gujrat, Mandi Bahauddin Khan j tle Su Sibi Urban flooding: Rajanpur Lahore,Gujranwala, Rawalpindi Balochistan Nasirabad Jhal Magsi Jaffarabad Maggasin canal breach: District Muzafargarh - First week of July Drought vulnerability Sindh Numerous canal breaches across Sindh: Sanghar During June, July and August Mirpur Khas Karachi Badin Thatta A r a b i a n S e a Map doc: PAK701_v4 Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the art of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Drought Conditions in Balochistan: Coastal and south- Sialkot District, Low to Medium category flood in Chenab western regions of Balochistan continue to experience mild River and urban flooding. to mode rate drought conditions. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Rains are likely to impact Peshawar Monsoon Forecast: Valley, Malakand and Hazara Divisions and could cause localized flash flooding and water surge in Kabul and Swat Moderate to heavy precipitation is expected in the upper rivers and their tributaries. regions of the country from 9 to 15 August. Azad Jammu & Kashmir: Rains could cause local emergency Punjab: Rains will be restricted largely to the north-eastern situations in the Neelum and Jhelum valleys. regions and in Jhelum, Sialkot and Rawalpindi districts and Adjoining regions of South Punjab, northern Sindh and in Islamabad. This could lead to possible flash flooding in northeast Balochistan may also be affected. For further information, please contact: References: Kamran Shariff, UNOCHA Pakistan Metreological Department: http://www.pmd.gov.pk Humanitarian Affairs Officer Civil Military Co-ordination and Preparedness Federal Flood Commission: http://www.ffc.gov.pk [email protected], +92-346-856 3640 Flood Forecasting Division: http://www.pmd.gov.pk/FFD/cp/floodpage.asp For more information, please visit: http://www.pakresponse.info.