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The Jevons Paradox and the Myth of Resource Efficiency Improvements Prelims.Qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page Ii Prelims.Qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page Iii Prelims.qxd 11/27/2007 10:15 AM Page i The Jevons Paradox and the Myth of Resource Efficiency Improvements Prelims.qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page ii Prelims.qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page iii The Jevons Paradox and the Myth of Resource Efficiency Improvements John M. Polimeni, Kozo Mayumi, Mario Giampietro and Blake Alcott London • Sterling, VA Prelims.qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page iv First published by Earthscan in the UK and USA in 2008 Copyright © John M. Polimeni, Kozo Mayumi, Mario Giampietro and Blake Alcott, 2008 All rights reserved ISBN 978-1-84407-462-4 Typeset by Domex e-Data, India Printed and bound in the UK by TJ International, Padstow Cover design by Susanne Harris For a full list of publications please contact: Earthscan 8–12 Camden High Street London, NW1 0JH, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7387 8558 Fax: +44 (0)20 7387 8998 Email: [email protected] Web: www.earthscan.co.uk 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan publishes in association with the International Institute for Environment and Development A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Jevons paradox and the myth of resource efficiency improvements / John M. Polimeni ... [et al.]. p. cm. ISBN 978-1-84407-462-4 (hbk.) 1. Energy consumption. 2. Energy development. 3. Energy policy. 4. Natural resources--Management. I. Polimeni, John M. HD9502.A2J48 2008 333.7--dc22 2007041630 The paper used for this book is FSC-certified and totally chlorine-free. FSC (the Forest Stewardship Council) is an international network to promote responsible management of the world’s forests. Prelims.qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page v Contents List of figures and tables vii Foreword by Joseph A. Tainter ix 1 Introduction 1 John M. Polimeni, Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi 2 Historical Overview of the Jevons Paradox in the Literature 7 Blake Alcott 3 The Jevons Paradox: The Evolution of Complex Adaptive Systems and the Challenge for Scientific Analysis 79 Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi 4 Empirical Evidence for the Jevons Paradox 141 John M. Polimeni 5 Conclusion 173 John M. Polimeni, Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi Index 179 Prelims.qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page vi Prelims.qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page vii List of Figures and Tables FIGURES 3.1 Economic energy efficiency and GDP per capita in the US economy 82 3.2 Total energy consumption, population and energy consumption per capita in the US economy 84 3.3 Are elephants dematerialized versions of mice? 86 3.4 The evolution of cars 89 3.5a Geographical orientation of the coast 93 3.5b Two non-equivalent perceptions/representations of space 94 3.6 The two sides of the holon: The President of the US 99 3.7a The same why corresponds to many hows 101 3.7b The same how corresponds to many whys 101 3.8 Emergence induced by changes in the goals of observers 103 3.9 Three realizations of structural and functional types 105 3.10 Differences between structural identity and functional identity 106 3.11 Complex time: Four discrete time intervals 109 3.12 Fuel economy and speed of cars 112 3.13 The energy metabolism of the Japanese economy (1971–2001) in terms of four variables 119 3.14 Economic energy intensity of three sectors of the Japanese economy: PS (productive sector); TS (transport sector); SS (service sector) 120 3.15 Labour hours allocation to four sectors of the Japanese economy: PS (productive sector); AS (agricultural sector); TS (transport sector); SS (service sector) 120 3.16 Self-entailment of efficiency and adaptability across scales 124 3.17 The Jevons Paradox on an EL–MSL plane 126 3.18 The Jevons Paradox in an EL–MSL–SIZE space 128 4.1 Energy consumption in the US, 1960–2004 152 4.2 Energy intensity in the US, 1960–2004 153 4.3 Energy consumption in 16 selected European countries, 1980–2004 156 4.4 Energy intensity in 16 selected European countries, 1980–2004 156 Prelims.qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page viii viii THE JEVONS PARADOX AND THE MYTH OF RESOURCE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS 4.5 Energy consumption in 12 selected Asian countries, 1980–2004 160 4.6 Energy intensity in 12 selected Asian countries, 1980–2004 161 4.7 Energy consumption in Brazil, 1980–2004 165 4.8 Energy intensity in Brazil, 1980–2004 165 5.1 The major discontinuity in the evolution of humankind due to the massive use of Promethean technologies 175 5.2 World primary energy demand by region 176 TABLES 4.1 Mapping of variables to the I = PAT equation 148 4.2 Regression results for the US 154 4.3 Regression results for 16 selected European countries: Models 1–5 157 4.4 Regression results for 16 selected European countries: Models 6–7 159 4.5 Regression results for the Asian region case study 162 4.6 Regression results for the Brazilian case study 166 Prelims.qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page ix Foreword Joseph A. Tainter It is provided in the essence of things that from any fruition of success, no matter what, shall come forth something to make a greater struggle necessary. Walt Whitman, Song of the Open Road In January 2002 I was returning to the United States from fieldwork in the Sahel of Mali. My itinerary to and from Mali goes through Paris, where usually I take a layover. On this occasion I arranged to meet friends for dinner, at which we were joined by a Swedish geographer. The conversation turned to various topics, including the platform of the Green Party in upcoming elections. Since we were discussing environmental issues, our Swedish colleague told us about a study he had recently done. It was a project of survey research, in which Swedes had been asked the question, ‘If you were to eat less meat in your daily diet, what would you do with the money this saves?’ It turns out that if Swedes ate less meat, they would like to use the money to travel more. Travel, of course, carries environmental costs, just as does eating meat. Reducing consumption of meat might not reduce environmental damage and certainly wouldn’t eliminate it, a somewhat counter-intuitive outcome. But that is the nature of the Jevons Paradox. An action taken to conserve resources reduces the cost of daily life to such an extent that entirely different kinds of environmental damage become affordable. William Stanley Jevons would have predicted it. In his 1865 work The Coal Question, William Stanley Jevons (1835–1882) expressed the concern that Britain would lose its economic dynamism and pre- eminence in the world due to an inevitable depletion of its reserves of easily mined coal. Of course he did not foresee the dominance of petroleum, even denying its likelihood, and so the central worry of the book turned out to be misplaced. But The Coal Question contains a gem that enshrines the book as among the most significant works of resource economics. That gem is known today as the Jevons Paradox. It cannot be expressed better than in Jevons’s own Victorian prose: It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth. (Jevons, 1866, p123) Prelims.qxd 11/26/2007 7:38 PM Page x xTHE JEVONS PARADOX AND THE MYTH OF RESOURCE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS As a rule, new modes of economy will lead to an increase of consumption … (Jevons, 1866, p123) Now, if the quantity of coal used in a blast-furnace, for instance, be diminished in comparison with the yield, the profits of the trade will increase, new capital will be attracted, the price of pig-iron will fall, but the demand for it increase; and eventually the greater number of furnaces will more than make up for the diminished consumption of each. (Jevons, 1866, p124–125) In short, as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource may increase rather than decrease. This paradox has implications of the highest importance for the energy future of industrialized nations. It suggests that efficiency, conservation and technological improvement, the very things urged by those concerned for future energy supplies, may actually worsen our energy prospects. The present book is one of the most extraordinary works on the Jevons Paradox. The authors are known for their innovative and eclectic research. The topics covered here are diverse, as are the approaches of the individual chapters. Blake Alcott in Chapter 2 sets the historical scene, discussing Jevons’s work in the context of the founders of economics in the 18th and early 19th centuries. Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi in Chapter 3 continue their explorations of epistemology and societal energy metabolism from a thermodynamic perspective. They discuss the important trade-off between efficiency and adaptability, referring to this as a yin–yang tension. In the fourth chapter, John Polimeni conducts a technical analysis to determine whether the Jevons Paradox has been in effect in various countries and regions of the world. The individual chapters are technical, and are valuable for this. They investigate in a rigorous manner the question of whether industrial nations can expect to continue in their present mode based on the hope and expectation of increasing efficiency in energy use. The Jevons Paradox questions the pervasive assumption – common in colloquial discourse and even in many academic discussions – that sustainability emerges as a passive consequence of consuming less.
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