Comprehensive Study of Fukuoka Airport Public Involvement (PI)

PI Report Step 2 Summary Step 2 ●Future vision for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport PI The role required of Fukuoka Airport for realising the future vision for the region and REPORT resolving current issues. ・An airport that links Fukuoka with the rest of Japan and the world, and supports the expansion of mutual exchanges (i.e. expansion of the air transportation network). Comprehensive Study of Fukuoka Airport ・An airport that supports improvements in transportation services, and air transport demand (Ensuring airport capacity). ・An airport that supports the independent development of Fukuoka and Kyushu (support widespread use of air transport with regards for safety and the environment). Public Involvement (PI) Report Step 2 ●Future air transport demand forecasts The results of the forecasts are summarized below. However, it is essential to monitor In this paper, we describes changes in the underlying assumptions of the forecasts, air transport demand trends for Northern Kyushu and other factors. that the role of Fukuoka Airport in relation ・Domestic air passenger volume is expected to increase together with Japanese economic growth to the future prospect of Kyushu region. and increases in the population of Fukuoka metropolitan region. Based on this role, we also describes the estimation ・International air passenger volume is expected to increase together with Asian economic growth and population growth. of the demand forecast of Fukuoka Airport. ・Fukuoka Airport is expected to lose excess runway capacity in the early 2010s, making it difficult to meet the demand. ●Possible responses Possible responses will be proposed in PI step 3. These will then be evaluated in step 4. Let's explore together Future responses Collaborations with nearby airports (New Kitakyushu, Saga). about Fukuoka Airport that will Additional runways at existing airport support the region in the future. Construction of a new airport

The airport has We have to many roles to play to think about ensure that Fukuoka the airport together, remains a fascinating for the future of place to live. Fukuoka.

We are looking forward to hearing your opinion!

Please visit our websaite. A limited number of copies (Japanese only) is available at Fukuoka Prefecture and Fukuoka City administrative information corners. Announcements concerning PI Report Step 3 Evaluation process

Identification of Assumptions used to evaluate Evaluation guideline and Comparative evaluation of Step Step Step ステップ proposals, and proposal on 1 issues and policy targets 2 proposed responses 3 proposals to be evaluated 4 the direction to take In step 3 the proposals to be evaluated will be discussed, along with the evaluation guideline.

I wonder what I wonder how proposals are possible do we evaluate for Fukuoka Airport? a proposal? １．Introduction ・・・・・・１２．Future outlook for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport ・・２３．Future demand forecast・・・・・・９ FUKUOKA KUKO CHOSA RENRAKU CHOSEI KAIGI (Fukuoka Airport Study Commission) http://www.fukuokakuko-chosa.org/

Kyushu Regional Planning Bureau, Ministry of Land, Fukuoka Prefecture (Airport Planning Division, Infrastructure and Transport (Airport PT Office) Airport Planning Bureau) Ministry of land, infrastructure and Transport (MLIT), Fukuoka Prefectural 2-5-33 Otemon, Chuo-ku, Fukuoka 810-0074 7-7 Higashi-Koen, Hakata-ku, Fukuoka 812-8577 Government and City of Fukuoka organized Fukuoka Airport Study Commission Tel: 092-752-8601 Fax: 092-724-2480 Tel: 092-643-3216 Fax: 092-643-3217 http://www.pa.qsr.mlit.go.jp http://www.pref.fukuoka.lg.jp (FASC) and started a study in order that the airport will maintain airborne network Osaka Civil Aviation Bureau, Ministry of Land, Fukuoka City and provide proper services to the passengers in the future. Infrastructure and Transport (Airport Planning and (Airport Promotion, General Planning Bureau) Adjustment Section) 1-8-1 Tenjin, Chuo-ku, Fukuoka 810-8620 4-1-76 Otemae, Chuo-ku, Osaka 540-8559 Tel: 092-711-4102 Fax: 092-733-5582 Tel: 06-6949-6469 Fax: 06-6949-6218 http://www.city.fukuoka.jp FUKUOKA KUKO CHOSA RENRAKU CHOSEI KAIGI http://www.ocab.mlit.go.jp (Fukuoka Airport Study Commission) 2006.7.Comprehensive Assessment of Fukuoka Airport Public Involvement (PI) Report Step 2 1.Introduction 2.Future outlook for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport

How is the comprehensive study How do you evaluate what the region will be like of Fukuoka Airport performed? in the future, and the role the airport will play?

Overall plan ●Before we can evaluate the role of Fukuoka Airport, it is necessary to sketch out an image of what the region will be like in the future. Assessment steps PI Now we're ●We approached this by first investigating the current state of the region and the problems it faces, and The first step survey was to assess starting existing development plans*, and reviewing ongoing efforts to achieve these objectives. After the overall the Fukuoka Airport capacity for （2005.7～2005.12） C step 2. Step direction of existing policies and projects has been identified, we are able to better define the future state aircraft take-offs & landings. The i t that the region is currently working to achieve, and what future should we be aiming to achieve. o Complete 1 first step survey and the PI were i z f completed last year. ●The role that Fukuoka Airport will play in the future state of the region has been formulated, base on the e

I t m n h P current state and problems of the airport as defined in step 1. r o e s p v The second step survey is about to define * Existing development plans include plans at the national, Kyushu, prefectural and city levels. i

, d l s e i a role of the airport in Fukuoka metropolitan n a t g Step m u area and to estimate the airport demand n s Assessment flow t u d e 2 forecast. A draft report is now prepared to d d y y f n

the public for PI procedure. t u i n o h 【Current state and problems of region】【Existing development plans】 t b f t a o e u t

r ・Fukuoka and Kyushu as the hub for East Asia ・Existing development plans (government, y m t h r E c i a

The third step will be to provide countermeasures for e ・Fukuoka as the core city for Kyushu economic organizations, etc.) o t F e v i o o increasing demand of the airport, including maximum ・Fukuoka Airport and surrounding region ・Efforts to realize existing development plans o n a n A r Step utilization of neighboring airports in the northern n f l

s u S

Kyushu, construction of an additional runway in the e t i a d h

C 3 present airport, and construction of a new airport n t e e i with two runways in Fukuoka metropolitan area. t n r i r a g 【Future of the region】 t e i t g e i Target date:About 2030 The final step will be to propose an optimal o i

Step s o countermeasure for Fukuoka Airport to meet n Target region：Fukuoka metropolitan region and Kyushu in the context of n the future demand. 4 Japan and East Asia t h F 【Current state and problems of Fukuoka Airport】 e

Supervision u

・How users perceive Fukuoka Airport k E Proposal of optimal countermeasures and advice c u v o ・How the region perceives Fukuoka Airport r o by third parties a o n k l ・How Japan's air network perceives Fukuoka Airport l s u e a i a d ・How various facilities perceive Fukuoka Airport o A t

Decision of Final countermeasure by FASC e i f n i r r a g p t o i o r

n 【The role of Fukuoka Airport】 Public involvement is the process of involving the public in the early stages of the transportation t What is PI? planning process through completion.

Output from the first PI step survey is; The first step is to define the state of the region in the future. The capacity of Fukuoka Airport is assessed 145 thousands aircraft take-offs & What are the key points to consider? landings per year. While the airport handled 136 thousands aircraft take-offs & landings in FY 2003, deterioration of service for passenger and inefficient ●We have defined seven key points, based on the current state and problems of the region, and aircraft operation are found in the airport. existing development plans. If parallel taxiway is installed in front of domestic terminal, the capacity will be 7 key points in defining the future of the region expected 149 thousands aircraft take-offs & landings in a year. The capacity of the airport, the service and the operational condition will be improved to some The future of the region extent. ① Globalization ⑤ Information technology is discussed through these seven key points ② Aging population and declining birthrate in the following pages. ⑥ Infrastructural management Here, second step survey, we provide you information on ③ Decentralization of government a future outlook for the region, the role of Fukuoka Airport and demand forecast in the future. ④ Diversification of senses of value ⑦ Environmental awareness 1 2 2.Future outlook for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport 2.Future outlook for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport

③Decentralization of government The Japanese government is currently working to decentralize authority and transfer revenue sources to local What is the future of the region? governments, and regions are seeking increased independence. For Fukuoka and Kyushu to become independent regions, it will be essential to develop their own unique competitiveness, such as the advantageous proximity to the rest of East Asia. ▼Comparison of Kyushu and Holland ●The future state of the region is discussed below through each of the seven key points, including concrete Kyushu is very similar to Holland in terms of land area, population and plans to resolve existing problems and projects already under way. ・Regional potential equivalent to that of a nation GDP, and indeed has potential on a par with that nation. ・Diverse and sophisticated needs ・Domestic and international competitiveness Item Kyushu Holland Remarks 2 Kyushu：2004 ①Globalization Area（km ） 39,910 41,528（1.04）Holland：2002 Barriers between regions and nations are becoming lower in recent years, and the movement of people, Population (Thousand) 13,446 16,105（1.20）Kyushu：2000 goods, money and information is more active than ever, thanks to rapid globalization. Fukuoka, Kyushu Holland：2002 GDP ($100 million) 3,459 4,190（1.21）2002 enjoys a geographic advantage with respects to the fast growing cities of East Asia. It is essential for Constructing an independent region Fukuoka to utilize this geographic proximity to ensure a share of the overall growth driven by regional and ※Kyushu excluding Okinawa. Numbers in parentheses indicate ratio to Kyushu ・Construction of an efficient administrative system Sources: World Statistics 2006, Japan Statistics 2006 inter-city competition while coexisting with other cities. (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications), ○International initiatives capable of responding quickly, accurately and Kyushu Data Book 2006 (Nishinippon Shimbun) ・FTA (Free Trade Agreements) autonomously to regional needs ▼Fukuoka and the surrounding region: making an international ・Global environmental issues ・Regional development through deregulation, contribution as a key center in East Asia ・Asian currency concept international contribution and international Kyushu ・Infectious disease countermeasures ・International division of labor (avian influenza, etc.) corporate activity ・Linkage to economic development ・Advantageous geographic proximity ・Terrorism countermeasures, etc. East Asia ・Increasing exchanges to rest of East Asia ・Creation of competitive manufacturing cores ・High economic growth ・Network creation and utilization of attractive tourism resources Rest of Japan Transition from international exchange to international contribution ・Increase in international tourism Fukuoka：Development from a Japanese hub city to an exchange city Fukuoka Regional and city competition Tokyo, representative of all of East Asia Pusan, Shanghai, Shift from competition ・Utilization of driven by growth in East Asia Nagoya, Kyushu：Development from a region in western Japan to a hub region Taipei, Hong Kong, between nations to advanced city Osaka, etc. for East Asia competition between Guangzhou, etc. functions Photo: EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium regions and cities ・Cooperative development Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport ・Gateway city for ・Strengthened ties international Future state of the region：A competitive, independent region that utilizes its regional strengths Expanded exchange circle ④Diversification of senses of value Other regions India, Russia, Europe, etc. Senses of value are changing from defining the quality of life in terms of quantity of goods to a definition based on spiritual and emotional fulfillment, resulting in a rise in potential demand for leisure activities, Future state of the region：Coexisting with the international society, especially in fast-growing East Asia especially travel. It is essential that Fukuoka and Kyushu utilize their extensive natural, historical, cultural and other resources to promote diverse exchanges, and create balanced and high-quality lifestyles for leisure activities. ▼Potential demand and participation

33.4 ②Aging population and declining birthrate Overseas travel 10.9 Domestic travel 18.7 (summer resorts, winter resorts, hot springs, etc.) 55.3 The aging population and declining birthrate is a trend that is affecting all of Japan, and is expected to result in a 8.2 smaller workforce in the future. To maintain its vitality, Fukuoka and Kyushu will have to implement fundamental Picnics, hiking, outdoor walks 27.8 Diversifying senses of value Pottery 9.0 policies to address the issue. In addition, it will be essential for Fukuoka to drive programs designed to heighten Lifestyle evaluation： 2.4 High potential Concerts, etc. 11.8 travel demand the attractiveness of Kyushu overall, promoting increases in productivity and transient population. Changing from quantity to quality 23.3 Auto-camping 10.3 5.0 Potential demand 9.6 Aging population ・Population concentration in cities, depopulation of rural areas Theater-going (excluding TV) 12.3 Participation Smaller productive population ※Potential demand calculated and declining birthrate ・Depressed consumption due to fewer permanent residents, etc. Skiing 7.7 6.9 as target participation minus 8.8 actual participation Extensive exchange Spectator sports (excluding TV) 19.5 Increase productivity Fundamental measures to address Increase transient Events, activities, 7.1 ▼The ratio of foreign visitors to local with many different people expositions 19.7 through diverse the aging population and declining birthrate population by promoting 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (%) Improvements in labor and living environments, population is 130% for France and human resources the hospitality of the region 70% for Italy, but only 4% for Japan ・Utilize the rich natural, historical, cultural and other Source: Leisure White Paper 2005 including childrearing and medicine. (Japan Productivity Center for Socio-Economic Development) ・Creation of a society where ・Promotion of tourism and and 7% for Fukuoka Prefecture. resources of Fukuoka and Kyushu ※Photo: Paris, France women, the elderly and foreign conventions ・Utilize convenient transportation networks to other ▼The Kyushu National Museum, a new hub of residents can participate fully. Fukuoka ・Enhancement of networks cultural and academic exchange for the region ・Development of professionals Provision of a range of city functions, linking regions and domestic and international points capable of making including advanced functions nations international contributions. Kyushu ・Creation of a safe and ・Providing opportunities for secure social environment people to apply diverse Industry to support the regional economy, Achieve a balanced and high-quality lifestyle knowledge and skills, etc. attractive tourism resources, etc.

Fukuoka must lead the sustained development of Fukuoka / Kyushu

Attracting diverse people from Japan and overseas, A region where diverse people engage in exchange with each Future state of the region： Future state of the region：and providing a wide range of opportunities other, and experiencing truly rich lifestyles 3 4 2.Future outlook for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport 2.Future outlook for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport

⑤Information technology Information technology (IT) is adopted on a global scale today, Fukuoka and Kyushu will need to not only What is required of Fukuoka Airport in the future, construct efficient social systems through the widespread adoption of IT, but also utilize the accumulation of IT-related industry in Fukuoka to vitalize the region, providing residents with high-quality lifestyles and based on its current status and issues? transmitting information to Japan and the world. ▼R&D sites in the information services industry Promotion of IT (Fukuoka Soft Research Park) ●Based on the current status and issues of Fukuoka Airport identified in PI Step 1, this section ・Upgrading the IT infrastructure, promotion of IT utilization, advancement in IT, etc. discusses what will be required of Fukuoka Airport in the future through four viewpoints: ① the users, ・The IT infrastructure is becoming indispensable in the daily activities of residents ② the region, ③ the air transport network, and ④ the airport facility. ①The users' ②The regional Construction of efficient social systems Regional vitalization ○Emphasis on travel time, time of stay at ○The airport has developed with the surrounding Move towards a society capable of simultaneous Move towards a competitive region region two-way exchanges on the global scale with a knowledge-based society destination, and frequency of flights (Some land is privately-owned, requiring an understanding of the history of the region and the airport.) ○Heaviest traffic occur in mornings and ○The airport contributes to the regional economy Creating high-quality lifestyles throughout the region and evenings and lives of the residents (The airport provides about 800 billion yen annually in indirect transmitting information domestically and internationally ○Satisfaction with Fukuoka Airport is high in economic effects to Kyushu, as well as supporting private aircraft comparison with other airports use, better access to remote islands, and improves disaster and A region where IT is utilized to create knowledge, and transmit information activities.) Future state of the region： information domestically and internationally ○There are many routes with low satisfaction ○Effect on the structure of the city (Including easy access to the city center, concentration of (for example, routes with low flight frequency) production and distribution functions in areas near the airport, and height restrictions on city buildings.) ⑥Infrastructural management ○Effect on the city environment Both the national and regional governments are in financial difficulty. In the future will require effective and (Airport is built within the city limits, causing local environmental strategic enhancement to infrastructure based on selection and concentration will be required. It will be issues such as aircraft noise. In addition, an accident could cause significant damage.) essential to improve regional competitiveness by emphasizing the hub character of Fukuoka in infrastructural

development plans for Fukuoka and Kyushu. Strategic investment to support the formation of new academic research cities (Kyushu University Academic Research City Concept) Fukuoka Airport will have to maintain ・Sound government financial state through administrative restructuring Secondary area Fukuoka Airport will have to continue to support and streamlining Primary area existing direct flights and develop the economic activities of Fukuoka and Kyushu, as ・Utilization of compact and sophisticated city functions of Fukuoka new ones, assure flight frequency well as cultural and civic activities, while working to Shima Town ・Active utilization of private sector in the form of investment and expertise Kyushu University Ito Campus Karatsu City from private enterprise Nijo Town and various access, and enhance assure aircraft safety and implement environmental shu Expr Island City shi-Kyu essw Yoshii IC N i ay Maebaru IC Momochi area Koga IC benefits such as by reducing costs. measures such as aircraft noise reduction. 浜天玉神 Hamata町ma Town Susenji IC Kyushu University Hospital area Move towards a region with maximum efficiency and benefit through Maebaru City Imajuku IC Tenjin timely and effective minimal investment effectively at the optimal time Fukuoka City Fukuoka IC JRHakata Sta. 佐賀県 Fukuoka Airport Kyushu University Ohashi area ③The air transport network ④The airport facility Kyushu University Chikushi area ○The domestic air transport network facilitates ○There are capacity-limiting factors including Formation of a strategic infrastructure Dazaifu IC 多久I.C ▼ transport between northern Kyushu and the three Infrastructural management through selection and concentration, parking, runways and taxiways. Chubu Airport, realized through capital major urban areas within the Kyushu-Yamaguchi enhancing domestic and international competitiveness and expertise from the private sector ○Congestion is on the increase at Fukuoka Source: Tokoname city ＨＰ region, and to remote islands. Airport, resulting in limitations during peak (Fukuoka Airport is 4th in terms of domestic passenger volume, and A region with global competitiveness made possible by strategic 3rd in terms of domestic freight tonnage.) periods. Future state of the region： infrastructure ○The international air transport network, facilitates ○Effects on users are becoming apparent, such transport between Fukuoka and other cities in East as difficulty in making reservations on domestic Asia. routes for Fridays, when demand peaks. ⑦Environmental awareness (4th in Japan in terms of international passenger volume and international freight tonnage.) ○On international routes, there is fluctuation Today, global environmental problems and limited natural resources are key issues for society. It will be essential ○Strong basic demand and easy access to the depending on which day of the week and the for Fukuoka and Kyushu to work to preserve the rich natural environment of the region and take the lead in global Fukuoka urban area from other regions in Kyushu season, based on tourism characteristics. environmental protection measures, with the aim to create a fascinating and sustainable region where urban has caused demand growth and helped create the ○For noise control and other reasons, Fukuoka development and environmental awareness coexist in a virtuous cycle. ▲ Advanced city air transport network. Airport can only be used between 7:00 and functions in 22:00. Fukuoka Kyushu downtown Provision of a range of city functions, Enhancement of advanced city functions Utilization and preservation of Fukuoka including advanced functions the rich natural environment Based on continuing upgrading of domestic Virtuous cycle Virtuous cycle Fukuoka Airport will have to provide Industry to support the regional economy, Conserving the rich Assurance of a safe and ▼The rich natural environment ▼A social environment that promotes and international airports and economic the capacity needed to fulfill high-draw tourism resources, etc. Region and city natural environment stable social environment of island in Hakata Bay the effective utilization of resources growth throughout East Asia, Fukuoka Airport development forecasted mid- and long-range (Noko Island) and energy (Fukuoka Clean will have to further enhance its domestic and Energy Co., Ltd. Tobu Plant) demands as well as user demands international air transport networks, utilizing ・Virtuous cycle formed between city and environment to enhance the fascination of the during peak periods. region and the city its proximity to the rest of East Asia. ・Maintain a high standard of living and preserve the rich natural environment ・International contribution through advanced environmental technologies and programs The roles of Fukuoka Airport are described on the following A region where a sustainable virtuous circle Future state of the region： pages, based on the future vision for the region and exists between city development and environmental awareness the current status and issues of the airport. 5 6 2.Future outlook for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport 2.Future outlook for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport

The role of An airport for fast, inexpensive and 【Required action】 Fukuoka 3 comfortable transport, utilizing Fukuoka’s Improved convenience for users What role will Fukuoka Airport play? Airport multi-modal transport functions ■Fukuoka is situated close to ports and harbors, ▼Utilization of Fukuoka’s with well-developed rail and road networks. transportation hub functions ●The role that Fukuoka Airport will play in the future has been outlined in the four basic points below, Utilization of strong Fukuoka Airport must utilize these characteristics based on the future state of the region and the current issues that the airport faces. domestic air transport to transport both passengers and goods quickly, network inexpensively and comfortably to destinations, to Utilization of sea transport provide enhanced customer convenience. Overseas exchange The role of Linking Fukuoka to Japan 【Required action】 (tourism, business, network (Hakata Port) Fukuoka 1 and other nations and supporting distribution) Airport Expansion of the air transport network expansion of mutual exchange ▼Fukuoka’s transport network integrating land, sea and air ■As globalization, aging society and declining birthrate continue, the continued development of the region will require Fukuoka Airport to provide closer ties between Fukuoka and Kyushu on the one hand, and Fukuoka Airport High-quality distribution the rest of Each Asia on the other, utilizing the extensive domestic air transport network that Fukuoka services based on Airport already possess. Fukuoka’s diverse ▼The day-trip range (1500-km range) for Fukuoka, Tokyo and Shanghai, and the 5000-km range from Fukuoka Hakata transportation means 1500 km Port Portland Rail 1500 km from Fukuoka Harbin London from Shanghai Chuangchun 1500 km Paris Shenyang Seoul from Tokyo America Europe Beijing Dalian （Incheon） Tianjin （Gimpo） Yantai Qingyang Japan Qingdao Cheongju Taegu Xian Gwangju Pusan Nanjing Jeju Land transport network throughout Possible future expansion to Chengdu Shanghai Wuhan Kyushu (tourism, business, distribution) Europe, America, India, Russia Chongqing Hangzhou Daytrip range utilizing and elsewhere Ziamen Guangzhou Guilin Taipei Fukuoka's proximity Dacca Shenzhen to Asian continent Hanoi Hong Kong Kaohsiung Fukuoka is India Chiang Mai Hainan Hawaii Expressways Honolulu Bangkok Saipan close enough to Manila Guam Kona Ho Chi Minh City Cebu Phuket An airport to coexist with the local Colombo The role of 【Required action】 the rest of East Asia Penang Kota Kinabalu

Kuala Lumpur Fukuoka 4 region, supporting the independent Widespread air transport usage with safety for day trips! 5000 km range Singapore Airport and environmental considerations East Asian sphere, with potential development of Fukuoka and Kyushu for expanded exchange Jakarta Papeete (Tahiti) ■Fukuoka Airport must contribute to people's lives through ▼Japan Coast Guard helicopter used for disaster Denpasar and emergency activities Port Moresby widespread usage of air transport for international exchange, distribution, disaster and emergency activities, and support Cairns Nadi (Fiji) the independent development of Fukuoka and Kyushu. Cities with routes to Fukuoka Airport Oceania ［Exchange with Fukuoka possible］ Noumea (New Caledonia) Airport operation will have to involve assurance of safety for Cities with past routes to Fukuoka Airport Brisbane the surrounding area, efforts to reduce environmental impact, Cities in Oceania, Hawaii or elsewhere in Cold Coast Oceania and Hawaii with major East Asia with routes to Narita, Kansai or tourism resources and past flights and a combination of reduced financial load and increased Chubu airports, and key regional airports in Korea Perth Sydney convenience through effective and efficient design and Auckland As of April 20, 2006 Melbourne management. Source: Fukuoka Airport Time Schedule

Christchurch ▼Effects of Fukuoka Airport The role of An airport to support improved 【Required action】 International and Promotion of economy Fukuoka 2 regional exchange and industry Ensure airport capacity Promotion of tourism Airport service and air transport demand Expanded employment Source: Japan Coast Guard 7th Region website ▼Fukuoka Airport environmental measures stance and tax revenues Conventions and events ■Fukuoka Airport will have to establish new routes and offer additional flights to satisfy future demand. Effects of Academia and From the global perspective, with deregulation in air transport, there is a trend towards smaller aircraft Fukuoka Airport City and community 1.Airport-related measures education redevelopment e From advanced city functions n ①Aircraft improvement and more frequent usage. v to resident daily life m A

i (introduction of reduced-noise aircraft) r e i

▼Trends in domestic flights/day o r a ②Landing and take-off restrictions p n

Culture Disaster prevention and s o m (restrictions on night flights, etc.) Trends in domestic jet flights/day Small jets Breakdown of aircraft on domestic flights Fukuoka City u

national development r r e

(under 200 seats) t e

③Operational improvements

Fukuoka Prefecture n

Medium jets s Japan 1 31 41 13 t (reduced-noise operations, etc.) 14 a 284 378 104 (200-349 seats) Kyushu

1989 domestic l 37％ 49％ 14％ Large jets Wider region 2.Measures for surrounding areas (350 or more seats) 1994 441 588 206 35％ 48％ 17％ American 19 78 3 domestic 1999 724 521 300 47％ 34％ 19％ This completes the discussion of the future state of the region, European 22 76 2 2002 774 504 298 domestic and the role of Fukuoka Airport. On the next page you’ll find 49％ 32％ 19％ 0％ 20％ 40％ 60％ 80％ 100％ 0 200 400 600 800 10001200140016001800 forecasts of air transport demand. Under 100 seats 100 to 199 seats 200 to 299 seats （flights） Source: Time schedule (as of Oct. each year) 300 to 499 seats 500 or more seats Source: Airport Technology Notes, Vol. 4 (FY2002) 7 8 ３．Future demand forecast ３．Future demand forecast

【 ①】 Calculating total domestic passengers How large will demand be in the future? ●Future passenger numbers are calculated as future population x trips per person in the future. ●Per-capita trips in the future are calculated based on the close relationship to real per-capita GDP (※1). Forecasting method ●Future population is based on population forecasts issued by the National Institute of Population and ●Future demand for air transport is divided into four categories, namely domestic passengers, Social Security Research. international passengers, domestic freight and international freight. ３．Future Demand estimates ●Forecasts were calculated for FY 2012, 2017, 2022 and 2032 (※1), by first calculating the Explanation probable world situation for each year (※2), then estimating the number of passengers, freight and ※1.Per-capita trips and real per-capita GDP have a proportional relationship as indicated below. Per-capita flights for Fukuoka Airport accordingly. Demand forecasts are based on actual data for FY2004. trips were estimated from real GDP predictions, assuming that this trend will continue.

Explanation ▼Correlation between per-capita trips and real per-capita GDP ▼Relationship between trips and real GDP (FY1982-2003) Business ※１.The 2012, 2017 and 2022 dates were chosen for short- and mid-term forecasts, and 2032 was 4.0 Expanded Increased P

e Increased GDP economic activity business trips

selected as a long-term forecast date. r - c a

※２.Demand forecasts are based on assumptions about social and economic conditions that are likely to p 3.5 i t a

exist at that time, and different assumptions will result in different forecasts. Three possible GDP values t r i were used to develop three different forecasts . p s

( 3.0 t

※3.Air transport demand was estimated with widely used traffic volume prediction techniques. r i p s

※4.Demand forecasts estimate potential air transport demand. Actual demand will be affected by factors / y e Tourism such as the number of flights offered. a 2.5 r ) Increased GDP Increased income Increased trips Items covered by air transport demand forecasts 2.0 Domestic passengers International passengers Domestic and international freight 250 300 350 400 450 Real per-capita GDP (10,000 yen) Passenger volume, flights Passenger volume, flights Tonnage ※Real per-capita GDP based on CY1995 prices. Covers trips of 200 km or more between Prefectural capital cities supported by air routes. Sources: Airline Passenger Traffic Survey, Major National Air Route Traffic Survey, Citizen Economic Yearbook, National Census Report ※2.The future real GDP for the three cases are calculated, based on the forecasts in 'Structural Reform What will happen to domestic and Medium-Term Economic and Fiscal Perspectives - FY2004 Revision (Jan. 20, 2005; Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy)' (referred to as 'Reform and Perspectives' below), and 'Japan's 21st passenger traffic? Century Vision'. Case A: Structural reform is assumed to continue, supporting economic growth the scenario of Calculation process progress in 'Reform and Perspectives'. ●First, the total number of domestic passengers is calculated (※1), including not only airline, but Case B: Structural reform is assumed to stagnate, with no improvement in productivity in the scenario also railway and roadway.【 ①】 Proceed to page 10. of no reform and flat growth in Reform and Perspectives. ●Next, this total volume is classified into trips between different regions,and the number (for example, Case C: The sluggish economic conditions that prevailed during the 1990s are assumed to continue. Fukuoka to Tokyo or Kitakyushu to Tokyo) calculated.【 ②】 Proceed to page 11. G▼ DP growth FY 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-20202021-2030 2031- ●Finally, the number of passengers per route are allocated to different modes (air, rail, road). For assumptions CaseA 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 (annual %) passengers using air transport, which airports and routes will be used are also calculated. (※2)【 ③】 CaseB 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Proceed to page 12. CaseC 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3～0.6 0.1～0.3 0.1

R ▼Japan's future population and

e ▼Japan's real GDP and real per-capital GDP

a age breakdown l Actual real GDP R Explanation G 1,200 （10,000 people）【Peak】 Real GDP (case A) 800 e D a 14,000 Pop. 128 million Pop. 118 million l

P 1,100 Real GDP (case B)

※1.This covers only medium- and long-distance travel of 200 km or more. 700 e i Real GDP (case C) 12,000 n 1,000

r Age 65 and older

Real per-capita GDP (actual) - 1 ※2.Passengers from Fukuoka departing Fukuoka Airport, for example, would be calculated separately from c 10,000

9 900 Real per-capita GDP (case A) 600 a p 9 Real per-capita GDP (case B) i 5 passengers from Kitakyushu also departing Fukuoka Airport, but both would be counted as passengers 800 t 8,000 Real per-capita GDP (case C) a 500 l p 700 Age 15-64 G

r 6,000 i c

using Fukuoka Airport. D

e 600 400 P

s 4,000

( 500 ( t m r 300 2,000 Domestic passenger volume demand forecast process i l l 400 i i l Age 0-14 o l i o

n 0

300 200 n 【①】【②】【③】 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 y （year） y e Source: Population Predictions (as of Jan. 2002), 200 e (Passengers between n （Total domestic passengers）（Allocation by transport mode）（Allocation by route） 100 n / National Institute of Population and y 100 ) different regions) e Social Security Research

Tokyo a

（t

h 0 r 0

１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１１２２２２２２２２２２２ e ) ２２２２２２２２２２２２２２２２２２２２２２

Tokyo f

Tokyo i ９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９９０００００００００００００００００００００００００００００００００ s c

７７７７７８８８８８８８８８８９９９９９９９９９９００００００００００１ a Haneda １１１１１１１１１２２２２２２２２２２３３３ l

５６７８９０１２３４５６７８９０１２３４５６７８９０１２３４５６７８９０１２３４５６７８９０１２３４５６７８９０１２ e Rail a Airport r Japan's population is expected to ） Sources: Citizen Economic Yearbook, Structural Reform and Medium-Term Economic and decline gradually in the future. Fukuoka Airport New-Kitakyushu Airport Fiscal Perspectives - FY2004 Revision Revision (Jan. 20, 2005; Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy) Air Japan's 21st Century Vision (Apr. 2005; Japan's 21st Century Vision Committee)

Fukuoka Fukuoka Fukuoka Demand forecasts are based on a variety of assumptions. 9 10 ３．Future demand forecast ３．Future demand forecast

【③】 Passenger volume forecasts by transport mode and route Using the total medium-range passenger ▼Total domestic passenger volume forecast (FY2004 indexed as 1.00) ●Passenger volume is allocated by mode of transport. For air transport, passenger volume is also allocated by volume for FY2004 as the index, Case A 2.00 Case A route. Concretely, passenger volume is weighted to favor the shortest travel time, lowest cost and highest is expected to show a growth of 1.13 G frequency of operation.

r Case B o 1.60 times in 2012 and 1.37 times in 2022. w 1.60 Case C ●Demand forecasts take the opening of Shizuoka Airport and the Hyakuri Air Field into account, as well as t h 1.37 1.35 new Shinkansen routes and expressways.

Case B forecasts are for 1.10 and 1.22

r 1.13 1.25 a 1.16 1.22 times, respectively, and even Case C is t 1.20 1.10 1.11 1.13 ●Aircraft trip passengers are calculated, and used to determine the total passenger volume for Fukuoka Airport. e 1.06 1.09

1.00 expected to show growth . ( ●The last step involves dividing total passengers by the passengers per aircraft (※1) to calculate the r e l

Note that even with the same forecasting a 0.80 number of flights (take-offs and landings) for the airport. t i method, different assumptions will yield v e different results. ) 0.40 Explanation y ▼Current and future resswa ku Exp ※1.The existing relationship between passenger volume, transport networks Chugo 0.00 Kanmon number of flights and fleet composition is expected to Expressway Sanyo Sanyo 2004 2012 2017 2022 2032（FY） Shinkansen Expressway remain fairly stable. Aircraft capacity is becoming smaller, Yamaguchi-Ube Airport New-Kitakyushu Airport 【②】 Calculating passenger volume between defferent regions which would require more flights for a given passenger volume. Fukuoka Airport i Oita Airport agasak N way Oita E ●Existing point-to-point (※1) passenger data is used as the basis, and modified in accordance with factors Transport network conditions xpress xpressw Nishi-Kyushu E ay such as improvement in the transport network and transportation services (※2). ○Airports Expressway Saga Airport

Shizuoka Airport and Hyakuri Air Field to open by FY2012. K

●The future transportation service level is based on actual data for Oct. 2004. y Ariake Sea

u ○Railways s Coast Road

Nagasaki h K u y ●Passenger volume by destination is estimated based on the above, adjusted for future real regional GDP Kyushu Shinkansen to offer full service between Hakata and S u

Airport s

S h h Kumamoto Airport in u

h k Shin-Yatsushiro by FY2010, etc. i a

(GRP) and population (※3). n ns k e

○Expressways a n

n s

Limited-access expressways: Expressways scheduled to be in e n

Explanation service by FY2012 nationwide, plus regional expressways and K Kyushu

y Expressway u

s national roads in the Kyushu and Yamaguchi regions scheduled h

※１.Japan was divided into 480 regions (Fukuoka Prefecture 85, other Kyushu regions 177, other regions u

to be in service by FY2012. S

Minami-Kyushu h Miyazaki i

in Japan 218). Westbound n Higashi-Kyushu k Expressway

Expressway a Expressway n ※２.An improvement in the transport network between two points will improve convenience for travel between s

※2.Future demand is Airport e

n Miyazaki Airport them, leading to an increase in demand. Forecasts include a higher rate of growth for these regions than L Expressway (as of FY2004)

calculated for transport e

g Major planned roadway (expected to be completed by FY2012) Kagoshima Airport other regions where no improvement in the transport network is expected. e network expected to be in n Major planned roadway (completion date pending) d ※３.It is predicted that the population of Japan will gradually decline, but the population of Fukuoka service in 2012. Case A Shinkansen (as of 2004) metropolitan area will continue to grow. In addition, the population of major prefectures linked to Kyushu Shinkansen Kagoshima Route (2032) also takes into (expected to be completed by FY2010) Fukuoka by air is also expected to grow . Kyushu Shinkansen Nishi-Kyushu Route (completion date pending) ▼Air routes from Fukuoka Airport, and account of transport prefectural population growth network elements expected Sources: Future of the Kyushu Block with Respect to Infrastructural Upgrading, Kyushu Regional Planning Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Mar. 2004), Future Vision Chugoku 21 "2004", Future Vision Chugoku 21 2020 (indexed to 2000) to enter service in 2013 or Committee (July, 2004) Airports in prefectures where Shin-Chitose beyond. Expressway Yearbook, JH public information, Report on Realizing Regional Tie-Ups (Saga Airport Improvement ▼Population by region population expected to increase Promotion Committee, Mar. 2004) (2000: indexed to 1.00） Airports in prefectures where 1.40 population expected to decrease Aomori Fukuoka metropolitan area As of Oct. 2004 Hanamaki Fukuoka City Domestic passenger volume forecasts Sendai Fukuoka Prefecture ( D 1 3,000 Niigata o 0 1.20 m 2,711 Japan Fukushima , A▼ nnual domestic 0 e 2,500 New air carriers s Toyama Matsumoto 0 2,280 2,360

passenger volume t

0 2,044 Narita i c

2,048

Collapse of the 1,828 2,002 Komatsu for Fukuoka Airport p 2,000 1,897 Haneda p 1,639 e

a "bubble economy" 1,771 1,867

Nagoya (arrival and o Izumo Itami s 1,792 p s 1,500 1,711 l departure) e

1.00 e n

Tsushima Kansai ) Case A Matsuyama g 1,000 Tokushima e Case B r Fukuoka Kochi Kyushu Shinkansen partially open v Case C o 500 (Yatsushiro to Kagoshima Chuo)

l Actual Fukue u

Miyazaki m 0.80 Amakusa 0 Kagoshima e 85 90 95 00 05 10 12 15 17 20 22 25 32 （FY） 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Routes linking Fukuoka Airport with highest 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 passenger volume (FY2004) 20 Volume Weight （year） Rank Route F 17.6

l 15.8

(10,000 people) (%) i g 16 14.0 14.9 16.3 ▼ Annual domestic h 1 Haneda 810 49.6 14.9 t 14.2 14.6 flights for Fukuoka s 12.1 13.7 The population of Fukuoka Prefecture, and 2 Naha 136 8.3 14.0 Naha ( 12 13.4 13.8 3 Nagoya 135 8.3 Airport (arrival and 1

especially Fukuoka City and the greater Fukuoka 0

departure) ,

4 Itami 105 6.4 0 metropolitan area, is expected to grow at a faster 8 Case A 5 Shin-Chitose 68 4.1 0 rate than most other regions in Japan. Ishigaki 0 Case B ー Other 379 23.3 f

l 4 Case C i Total 1,633 100.0 g

h Actual t

Sources: Japanese Population Forecasts (as of Jan. 2002), Population Forecasts by Prefecture (as of Mar. 2002), s

) 0 Population Forecasts by Administrative Region (as of Dec. 2003); National Institute of Population and Social Security Research 85 90 95 00 05 10 12 15 17 20 22 25 32 （FY） 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 （Date for 2005 is provisional） ※Fukuoka Airport's passenger volume has been flat in recent years, probably due to A change in the underlying assumptions will competition with other transport modes. cause a change in the forecasts. 11 12 ３．Future demand forecast ３．Future demand forecast

What about international passengers? 【②】 Calculating passenger volume between regions ●In the same way as for domestic passenger volume, existing passenger flow patterns (※1) are used Calculation process as the basis, and adjusted for expected improvements in the future transport network and transportation services (※2). ●First the passenger volume between Japan and overseas points is calculated separately for Japanese ●Passenger volume between regions is then calculated,with the future real GDP (GRP) per regions and foreigners, and for Japanese by business and tourism.【 ①】 See center section, page 13 taken into consideration. ●Next, this total volume is classified into trips between different regions, and the number (for example, Fukuoka to Oceania or Tokyo to Oceania) calculated.【 ②】 See page 14 Explanation ▼International passengers by nationality and region ●The last step is to calculate which airports and routes the passengers use, including transfers (※1). 250 ※１.In the same way as for domestic Non-Japanese, outside Asia 【③】 See page 14. Non-Japanese, Asia

passenger volume, international P Japanese, business, outside Asia 205

a 200

s Japanese, business, Asia

passengers are allocated to 20 s

Explanation e Japanese, tourism, outside Asia 168 n

regions (Asia 9, other 11). See g Japanese, tourism, Asia

e 150

※１.For example, in addition to a direct flight from Fukuoka to Oceania, it is also possible to transfer at r 138 page 134 for details. s

( 121 Narita, Kansai or other airports. Where multiple routes exist, the calculations include what percentage of ※２.Calculation is the same as for m

i 106 l l

i 95 passengers uses which route. domestic passenger volume (see o 100 92 n 84 78 page 11, ※2). p 69 67 International passenger volume demand forecast process e 64 o

※3.Total passengers arriving in and p 50 48 l 【①】【②】【③】 e /

departing Japan are expected to y (Passenger volume to and from Japan) （Passenger volume between e

（Allocation by route） a

grow 1.4 times from FY2004 to r

) 0 different regions） A C C C C C C C C C C C C c a a a a a a a a a a a a t FY2012, and 2.5 times from s s s s s s s s s s s s u e e e e e e e e e e e e a Kyushu A B C A B C A B C A B C Fukuoka FY2004 to FY2022. l Japan 2004 2012 2017 2022 2032 （FY） World Kansai Narita Oceania Oceania Fukuoka 【③】 Calculating passengers by route ●Passenger volume by destination is allocated by airport and route used. In the same way as for domestic passengers, passenger volume is weighted to favor routes with the shortest travel time, lowest cost and 【①】 Calculating passenger volume to and from Japan highest frequency of operation. ●Passenger volume is calculated for each airport by route (direct, transfer) to determine the total passenger ●The number of future Japanese departing Japan is calculated as the future population x international volume for Fukuoka Airport. departures per capita (※1). ●The last step involves dividing total passengers by the passengers per aircraft (※1) to calculate the ●Future population is based on population forecasts issued by the National Institute of Population and number of flights for the airport. (This is the same as for the domestic passenger volume forecast.) Social Security Research. ●Per-capita international departures in the future are calculated based on Japanese real per-capita GDP, Explanation overseas real GDP, and exchange rates, especially yen to the dollar (※2). ●Foreign passengers entering Japan are calculated based on Japanese real GDP, overseas real GDP, and ※1.The existing relationship between passenger volume, number of flights and fleet composition is expected exchange rates. to remain fairly stable. However, larger aircraft are expected to enter into service on some routes to handle increases in passenger volume, based on the experience of Narita Airport. Explanation ※2.International passenger volume is based on existing routes. New or cancelled routes may affect demand. ※3.China has experienced rapid economic growth in recent years, and new routes linking Fukuoka Airport ※１.Future population and future real GDP is calculated from the same assumptions used to calculate may be added in the future. domestic passenger volume (see page 10, ※1 and 2). ※２.Future overseas real GDP are based on forecasts issued by the World Bank, the Cabinet Office of the International passenger volume forecasts government of Japan and other organizations. Future exchange rates are based on past actual averages. I n

※3.The Visit Japan Campaign under way now is actively promoting foreign visits to Japan, but it has not been t ▼Annual international passenger volume for Fukuoka Airport (arrival and departure) e

r 1,000 factored in. This campaign, if effective, will cause an increase in the number of foreign visitors to Japan. n Case A a

t Case B ( i o

1 811 800 Case C n

▼Correlation between Japanese departing ▼Real future GDP for Asian nations and USA 0 SARS epidemic

a Actual , 659 l Japan and real per-capita GDP 0 '00-'05 '06-'15 '16-'32 600 p 0 503 536 R a Japanese departing Japan (10,000 people/year) Asia overall 5.1 ～ 5.2% 5.0～5.2% 5.4～5.8% 0 9/11 terrorism 394 e s 435 30 a China 6.7% 5.9% 6.9% s 400 J Real per-capita GDP (US$/person) p 307 359 a l e

391

e 217 p G USA 2,500 45,000 2.8% 3.4% 3.1% n 295 333 o a D g n

p 200 282 P e

25 e l s e

40,000 r i e

n )

d P o 2 0

e 2,000 e 5 0 5 0 5 0 2 5 7 0 5 2 0

20 l p 35,000 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 （FY） u 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 r

a 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 - m r c 0 t i n e a

30,000 p g ▼Annual domestic flights for Fukuoka Airport (arrival and departure) p 15

r J i 1,500 i c t a

a 8 e p 25,000 Case A

a s G

( 10 Case B

( D U (

20,000 1 1 Case C S P 6 0 1,000 0 $

, Actual ( ,

0 5.4 / 0 F 15,000 U 5 y USA 0 e l 0 S 0 i 4.4 a Asia g 4

0 $ r p 10,000 h 3.3 ) 3.6 e

500 ) 2.6 t

0 f o s l 2.1 2.9 i p 2.4

l 5,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 e （year） 2 1.6 2.6 h 2.0 2.3 / y t 1.9 s e ※"Asia" here consists of Korea, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, a 0 0 ) r ) 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. 0 Sources: Global Economic Prospects (Nov. 2004, World Bank) 5 0 5 0 5 0 2 5 7 0 2 5 2 (Data for 2005 is provisional) （year） 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 01 01 02 02 02 03 （FY） ※Real per-capita GDP in 2000 prices World Economic Trends Fall, 2004 (Nov. 2004, Director-General for Policy 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Source: Immigration annual statistics, Ministry of Justice Planning and Evaluation, Cabinet Office of the government of Japan) 13 14 ３．Future demand forecast ３．Future demand forecast

What is the air transport demand forecast What would happen if access to New-Kitakyushu for Fukuoka Airport? Airport and Saga Airport becomes more convenient?

●Growth in air transport demand for Fukuoka Airport is expected in all three cases, with forecasts for 2012 ●Trial calculations were performed to evaluate how more convenient access to New-Kitakyushu Airport and showing a total annual passenger volume, for both domestic and international flights, of between 19.93 Saga Airport would affect the supply-demand situation. It will be important to monitor usage of the newly- and 21.35 million, with annual take-offs and landings of between 153,000 and 161,000. For 2022 the opened New-Kitakyushu Airport and its effects on Fukuoka Airport. passenger forecast is between 22.58 and 27.83 million, and between 166,000 and 192,000 flights. ●Access transportation used in these trial calculations did not take operating authority or profitability into ●Demand forecasts represent potential demand based on assumptions about the economy at each date, so account. careful monitoring of differences between the assumptions and actual conditions is required. Improved airport access cases ▼User distribution for Fukuoka, Kitakyushu and Saga airports ▼Demand forecast cases and results Case (A-1) Most people using Fukuoka Airport live Forecast results ・Expanded bus service to New-Kitakyushu Assumptions ・Shizuoka Airport and Hyakuri Air Field opened in northern Kyushu, Top line: Passengers (10,000 people/FY) Airport and Saga Airport ・Kyushu Shinkansen Kagoshima route fully opens Kitakyushu especially in the Fukuoka Middle line: Domestic and international freight (10,000 tons/FY) Bus routes to New-Kitakyushu Airport Airport ・Expressways and regional expressways open metropolitan region. Cases Bottom line: Flights (10,000 flights/FY) Wakamatsu 70 min. for service as expected by FY2012 Sta. Shimonoseki 70 min. FY2012 FY2017 FY2022 FY2032 Gakuen Sta. (44 min.) Fukuoka Airport toshi 70 min. Tobata 40 min. Hibikino 65 min. Sta. Retro Case A 2,135 2,438 2,783 3,522 Sanbashi 40 min. dori Moji Economic growth forecast due 60 min. Kokura Nishitetsu (30 min.) I.C. (reform and 31.9 37.2 42.4 52.2 Sta.BC to continuing reform Orio Sta. Kurosaki 50 min. Nishi-guchi Bus Center 20 min. development) 16.1 17.5 19.2 23.0 Kokura Kusami Higashi Sta. Nakama I.C. Hikinoguchi 40 min. Case B 2,066 2,255 2,483 3,019 Sta. Kitakyushu Kanda Junction Kitakyushu （61 min.） Kuko I.C. New-Kitakyushu (no reform, 30.5 33.0 35.7 41.3 Users of three airports Little productivity increases due to slow reform Yahata Airport (residences) I.C. Kanda stagnate growth) 15.7 16.6 17.9 20.6 30 min. 20 min. Yukuhashi Sta. Saga Airport I.C.

Iizuka Case C 1,993 2,124 2,258 2,538 （49 min.） Fukuoka Japanese economy repeats the economic Sta. Yukuhashi Kitakyushu 50 min. Saga (the 1990s Shiida Sta. sluggishness of the 1990s 28.7 29.8 30.7 31.5 Minami Gotoji I.C. scenario) 15.3 16.0 16.6 18.1 Existing bus route Bus （77 min.） Source: Based on FY2003 survey of air transport Center Usa (Civil Aviation Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) New bus route （99 min.） Refer to detailed version for air freight forecasts. Times for new bus routes shown in parentheses Sta. ※The above air freight forecasts assume transport in passenger jet freight compartments, and do not include freight-only flights. Case (A-2) （107 min.）Karatsu Existing bus route ▼Fukuoka Airport annual passenger (domestic and international) volume forecast New bus route ・In addition to the bus routes described in Case (A-1), this case P （106 min.） Imari Times for new bus routes also assumes the establishment of a new rail access route to a 4,000 shown in parentheses s 3,522 s Actual Shin-Kitakyushu Airport, significantly improving access. e

n 3,500 Case A (reform and development) （85 min.） g （70 min.） Takeo e Case B (no reform, flat growth) 3,019 Taku r s 3,000 2,783 Case C (the 1990s scenario) （70 min.） ( 1 2,438 2,483 2,538 New rail line 0 2,500

, Hizen 0 2,135 2,255 （40 min.） Kokura 1,957 2,258 Yamaguchi 0 1,856 2,066 Ureshino sta.

0 2,000 2,124 Saga 35 min. 1,993 p （85 min.）（20 min.）

e Kashima Kubota Okawa Kagoshima o 1,500 Branch of Kagoshima p （50 min.） Fukutomi Yana Line

l Line for direct access e （22 min.） gawa Sanyo / 1,000 10 minutes from Kokura y Bus routes to （30 min.）

e （45 min.） Shinkansen Nippo (800 yen) a Saga Airport r Line

) 500 Saga Airport New-Kitakyushu Airport 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012 2017 2022 2032 （FY） Effects on Fukuoka Airport demand situation ▼Fukuoka Airport annual flights (domestic and international) forecast ●In the above scenarios where access to nearby airports is improved, annual flights to and from Fukuoka Airport are forecast to 25 23.0 drop by about 2,000 to 7,000 flights, with a corresponding decline in domestic passengers by about 3% to 6%. These F Actual l

i effects will be assessed in PI step 3 and beyond. g

h Case A (reform and development) 20.6

t ▼Domestic passenger forecasts for Fukuoka, New-Kitakyushu, and Saga airports ▼Effects on Fukuoka Airport demand situation s 20 Case B (no reform, flat growth) 19.2

( 2,500

1 17.5 Case C (the 1990s scenario) 16.1 17.9 18.1 2.280 2.220 Fukuoka Airport Top line: Passengers (10,000 people/FY) 0 16.6 P 2.154 Case A Case (A-1) Case (A-2)

16.6 a , 15.7 domestic Bottom line: Flights (10,000 flights/FY) 0 14.1 16.0 s 15 s 0 13.7 2,000 1.828 passenger e 1.769 0 15.3 n 1.710 forecasts FY2012 FY2022

g f e l i g r

s 1,828 2,280

h 1,500

10 ( t

1 Case A s /

0 14.0 15.8 y , e 0 1,000 a 0 1,769 （59） 2,220 （60） r

5 0 ) Case (A-1)

p 423 13.8 （0.2） 15.7 （0.1） e 500 o 361 293

p 248 193 226 1,710（118） 2,154（126） l 0 e 75 74 85 85

) 34 39 Case (A-2) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012 2017 2022 2032 （FY） 0 13.3 （0.7） 15.5 （0.3） (Data for 2005 is provisional) 2012 2022 2012 2022 2012 2022 （FY） Fukuoka New-Kitakyushu Saga Difference from Case A shown in parentheses It will be important to monitor The New-Kitakyushu Airport has just opened, and actual the actual situation as it develops. performance and effects will have to be assessed. 15 16 ３．Future demand forecast ３．Future demand forecast

Congestion and potential for increased flights Based on the forecasts, what will the capacity ●These forecasts show that flights per-day will exceed runway capacity in all three scenarios in 2012. ●This means that it will be difficult to increase the number of flights throughout the day, especially of Fukuoka Airport be like in the future? during morning and evening peak hours. This makes it difficult to open new routes or increase the number of flights on existing routes, in turn making it difficult to expand the air transport network supporting domestic and international exchange, and presenting an obstacle to such exchange. ●The capacity of Fukuoka Airport was evaluated based on the forecasts (※1). ●Aircraft congestion will continue throughout the day, making delays more likely. ●According to the demand forecasts, excess annual runway capacity will disappear by early 2010s, leading to increased congestion and making it impossible to fully meet demand. ●Continued monitoring is required to track changes in the underlying assumptions of the forecasts, or in the ①Residue flight handling capacity per-hour actual usage of Fukuoka Airport. ■Flights by time period →How much residue capacity is there during morning and evening peak hours? Flights (FY2005) ［ FY2005: 22 flights (morning 7, evening 15) →FY2012: 0 ］ Runway capacity Current (FY2005) Per-day capacity Future (FY2012) based on operating Flights/hour Flights/hour Flights ●The capacity of Fukuoka Airport's runways is taken as 32 (33) flights per hour, for a total of 398 (409) 40 patterns 40 (Case A) flights/day, or 145,000 (149,000) flights/year (※2). Flights 30 30 (Case B) ●According to the demand forecasts, annual runway capacity will be exceeded in 2012 for all three Flights scenarios. 20 (Case C) 20 Per-day ■Annual runway capacity 10 80% of per-hour runway capacity capacity

F based on

l 10 i g operating h 25 0 t s 23.0 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 (time） patterns

( Actual Case A Case B Case C 0 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 (time)

× 2 20.6 ③Time periods with flight congestion f o 19.2 →How many hours of delays are likely to occur r 20 within one day. This state is defined as when ②Capacity of new routes l a n Runway capacity 17.5 the flights per-hour exceeds 80% of 32 →What is the residue capacity of new routes that can be d 17.9 18.1 i opened? n 145,000 flights (149,000 flights) 16.1 flights/hour.� g 16.6 ［ FY2005: 9 hours →FY2012: 13 hours ］ �［ FY2005: 3 routes →FY2012: 0 route (see note) ］※ 15.7 16.6 a n 16.0 d 15 14.1 13.7

t ※Defined as being able to handle two round-trip flights during morning and evening peak periods, for flights departing in the a 15.3 k

e morning and returning in the evening, to and from Fukuoka Airport and destination. - o 10.7 f f )

( 1 10 8.7 Difficulty in making reservations 0 , 0

0 ●The occupancy ratio is the percentage of aircraft seats that are filled. More passengers will lead to 0

airlines using larger aircraft or increasing the number of flights, so that the occupancy ratio is usually f l i g h 5 about 60 to 70%. t s

/ ●If the number of flights cannot be increased beyond the future runway capacity, the aircraft occupancy y e a ratio will gradually rise, making it more difficult to make reservations. Difficulty in making reservations was r ) estimated using the Fukuoka-Haneda route as an example.

0 Flights during high- Passenger All flights almost Indices of difficulty demand periods almost 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012 2017 2022 2032 FY complains of full. Some available in making Relatively easy to make reservations on all flights full, making it difficult to inability to make seating possible at Note: Data for actual flights include irregular flights, such as JSDF aircraft. reservations make reservations on reservations airport counter. any flight Occupancy ratio（％） 40％ 50％ 60％ 70％ 80％ 90％ Explanation Current 2005 64％ ※１．In addition to runway capacity, indices that can be used to evaluate future Fukuoka Airport capacity include ① 70％ excess flight-handling capacity during peak times, ② capacity of possible new runways, ③ periods of heavy flight 2012 73％ take-off/landing congestion, and ④ difficulty in making reservations. These factors were defined in PI report step 75％ 1, but the terminology used has been reviewed in accordance with specific content. 77％ ※2．Basic approaches to runway capacity� Future 2022 84％ Runway capacity per-hour r varies with factors, including direction of ■Flights by time period 94％ (flights) 81％ 96％ runway use, ratio of take-offs and landings, and ratio of large aircraft. In 35 this assessment a representative value of 32 (33) flights per-hour was 2032 108％※ 30 used as the appropriate number for processing of flights on a daily 32 flights 32 flights 25 Average monthly occupancy ratio based on November 2005, using the Fukuoka-Haneda route as an example. basis. The runway capacity per-day was set at 398 (409) flights, based (33 flights) (33 flights) Actual Case A Case B Case C 20 26 flights on 32 (33) flights during the morning peak hours (※3), and 26 (27) (27 flights) ※People trying to make reservations for flight exceed monthly average capacity. flights during the rest of day (80% of peak), with early morning and 15 night traffic at present levels. Annual capacity was calculated as 365 10 Explanation times the daily capacity, or 145,000 (149,000) flights. Note that the 5 Passenger volume and occupancy ratios on the Fukuoka-Haneda route 1,000 100 actual number of flights handled may be different from these values. 0 ●Passenger volume on the Fukuoka-Haneda route has Passengers 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21（time） P Occupancy ratio（％） Values given in parentheses indicate runway capacity with the a s increased 1.3 times in ten years, but a corresponding s 800 80 O e c assumption that a second, parallel taxiway is constructed on the east side of the airport. n c g u increase in the number of flights has maintained the e p r

※3．Peak hours: 9:00 to 11:00 and 17:00 to 19:00, a total of 6 hours. s 600 60 a n ( 1 occupancy ratio at about 60 to 70%, with an average c 0 y

, r 0 a 0 400 40 t

of 63%. i o 0

p （

●Even with the occupancy ratio, currently reservations e ％ o p 200 20 ） l e

may be full several days in advance depending on the ) time and day. 0 0 17 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005（FY） 18 PI Report Step 2 Summary Step 2 ●Future vision for the region, and the role of Fukuoka Airport PI The role required of Fukuoka Airport for realising the future vision for the region and REPORT resolving current issues. ・An airport that links Fukuoka with the rest of Japan and the world, and supports the expansion of mutual exchanges (i.e. expansion of the air transportation network). Comprehensive Study of Fukuoka Airport ・An airport that supports improvements in transportation services, and air transport demand (Ensuring airport capacity). ・An airport that supports the independent development of Fukuoka and Kyushu (support widespread use of air transport with regards for safety and the environment). Public Involvement (PI) Report Step 2 ●Future air transport demand forecasts The results of the forecasts are summarized below. However, it is essential to monitor In this paper, we describes changes in the underlying assumptions of the forecasts, air transport demand trends for Northern Kyushu and other factors. that the role of Fukuoka Airport in relation ・Domestic air passenger volume is expected to increase together with Japanese economic growth to the future prospect of Kyushu region. and increases in the population of Fukuoka metropolitan region. Based on this role, we also describes the estimation ・International air passenger volume is expected to increase together with Asian economic growth and population growth. of the demand forecast of Fukuoka Airport. ・Fukuoka Airport is expected to lose excess runway capacity in the early 2010s, making it difficult to meet the demand. ●Possible responses Possible responses will be proposed in PI step 3. These will then be evaluated in step 4. Let's explore together Future responses Collaborations with nearby airports (New Kitakyushu, Saga). about Fukuoka Airport that will Additional runways at existing airport support the region in the future. Construction of a new airport

The airport has We have to many roles to play to think about ensure that Fukuoka the airport together, remains a fascinating for the future of place to live. Fukuoka.

We are looking forward to hearing your opinion!

Identification of Assumptions used to evaluate Evaluation guideline and Comparative evaluation of Step Step Step Step proposals, and proposal on 1 issues and policy targets 2 proposed responses 3 proposals to be evaluated 4 the direction to take In step 3 the proposals to be evaluated will be discussed, along with the evaluation guideline.