CORALVILLE WEST LAND USE MASTER PLAN AND DESIGN GUIDELINES Project Initiation Booklet
City of Coralville, Iowa March 2015 Overview
Preface Market Analysis Acknowledgments...... i-ii Market Analysis...... 35-48
Introduction Appendix Overview...... 1 Timeline...... 2 Bibliography...... iii-iv Project Phase Description...... 3-4
Phase 1 - Project Initiation Phase One Overview...... 5-6 City Project Team Exercise Results...... 7-8 Headline News Key Words SWOT Analysis (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) Steering Committee and Stakeholder Input...... 9-12 SWOT Analysis General Comment Summary Public Input...... 13-20 General Comments Preferencing Results Community Plan Boards and Presentation Boards...... 21-34 Project Limits Property Owner Boards Overall Southwest Enlargement Southeast Enlargement Land Use Plan Transportation Plan Shared Use Pathways Plan Natural Resources Plan Site Analysis Land Use/Property Ownership Map Overlay Photo Inventory Boards Photo Board 1 Photo Board 2 Photo Board 3 Photo Board 4
i Table of Contents Acknowledgments
Previous Planning Efforts and Documents Steering Committee Design Team and Contact Information City of Coralville, Iowa Community Plan – 2014 Mayor John Lundell Confluence (Completed by Houseal Lavigne Associates) Councilor Jill Dodds 900 2nd St SE, Suite 104 Councilor Tom Gill Cedar Rapids, Iowa 52401 Joe Barry P: 319.409.5401 Stakeholder Interviews Bill Ferrel LeLand Consulting Group Ellen Colony...... Property Owner Todd Jacobson 610 SW Alder Street, Suite 1008 Mike and Jake Evans...... Evans Construction John Weihe Portland, Oregon 97205 Mike Hodge...... Lowry and Hodge LLC Steve West P: 503.222.1600 Joe Hughes...... Southgate Companies Donna Jondle...... Property Owner Coralville Project Team Shive-Hattery, Inc. David Kieft...... University of Iowa 2834 Northgate Drive Dean Oakes...... Oakes Development Ltd. Kelly Hayworth Iowa City, Iowa 52245 Ken Phillips...... Edwin Enterprises Ellen Habel P: 319.354.3040 Beth Saxton...... Property Owner Dan Holderness Charlie Saxton...... Property Owner Jim Kessler HR Green Inc. Jerry Waddilove...... Southgate Companies Scott Larson Sherri Proud 8710 Earhart Lane SW Cedar Rapids, Iowa 52404 P: 319.841.4000
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Acknowledgments ii
Introduction Overview
In 2014 the City of Coralville adopted a new Community Plan to provide a framework for growth. One of the most important growth areas identified in that plan is the West Land Use Area located between I-380 and Coral Ridge Avenue/Highway 965, south of Forevergreen Road, and north of I-80. The City is moving forward to further clarify the vision for this prominent and environmentally sensitive area which is the largest remaining undeveloped tract in the City.
The planning efforts focus on creating a detailed master plan as well as developing design guidelines for the area. As part of this effort, the City hired a consultant team of city planners, urban designers, landscape architects, and engineers led by the landscape architecture and planning firm Confluence to provide the following services:
1. Market Analysis to assist in refining land use districts in the project area
2. Visioning and Public Input working with City staff, the steering committee members, property owners, stakeholders and the public to gather ideas, goals and vision for this area of the community
3. Master Planning assessing and refining the current community plan land use map to a more detailed level and develop a detailed, yet conceptual master plan for the area
4. Development Guidelines and Zoning Overlay working with City Staff, the Steering Committee memembers, property owners and other stakeholders to develop appropriate guidelines and zoning regulations for the plan area
5. Fee District Analysis analyze existing sanitary sewer, water main, and storm water fee districts Project Boundary
1 Introduction WEST LAND USE AREA MASTER PLAN AND DESIGN GUIDELINES TIMELINE
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015
PHASE 1 | PROJECT INITIATION - DATA COLLECTION, SITE ANALYSIS, BASE MAPPING AND COMMUNITY VISIONING
COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDER AND PROPERTY OWNER ENGAGEMENT AND INPUT PUBLIC OPEN HOUSE
CITY REVIEW - CITY COUNCIL AND OR PLANNING AND ZONING WORK SESSION CITY WORK SESSION
PHASE 2 | MASTER PLANNING
TRANSPORTATION AND CIRCULATION ANALYSIS AND TRANSPORTATION PLAN
COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDER AND PROPERTY COMMUNITY WORKSHOP OWNER ENGAGEMENT AND INPUT
CITY REVIEW - CITY COUNCIL AND OR PLANNING AND ZONING WORK SESSION CITY WORK SESSION
PHASE 3 | DESIGN GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS + ZONING OVERLAY
COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDER AND PROPERTY OWNER ENGAGEMENT AND INPUT COMMUNITY WORKSHOP
CITY REVIEW - CITY COUNCIL AND OR PLANNING AND ZONING WORK SESSION CITY WORK SESSION
PHASE 4 | SANITARY, SEWER, AND WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS, STORMWATER MANAGEMENT CONCEPT
CITY REVIEW - CITY COUNCIL AND OR PLANNING AND ZONING WORK SESSION CITY WORK SESSION
This project process is multifaceted and comprehensive in its approach with four phases as shown in the timeline matrix exhibit and outlined on the facing page.
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Timeline 2 Project Phase Descriptions
Phase One - Project Initiation Phase Two - Master Planning
In order to provide a well thought out and appropriately This phase included gathering data, making site Results from the Project Initiation phase provide the projections. Like the first phase, community feedback designed West Land Use Area Master Plan, it is visits, providing a market analysis and projections basis for phase two - Master Planning. Using the is essential for developing the best product and will be essential to have a complete understanding of the and gathering input from people who work and live in 2014 Community Land Use Plan as a foundation solicited through a community workshop and steering existing conditions, and other influential factors that the area as well as feedback from key stakeholders. as well as the information gathered, compiled and committee and stakeholder meetings as well as City will affect the outcome of the project as well as a full Significant input was gathered through a public open assimilated during phase one, the design team will Council and Planning and Zoning Commission input. understanding of the City’s and public’s goals and house, a steering committee meeting and individual develop master plan concepts that respond to the In this phase, a conceptual master plan draft will be vision for its development. This was the focus of phase meetings with property owner stakeholders. community’s desires and goals. This phase may developed and presented to the public for further one - Project Initiation which is now complete. include refinement of the Land Use Plan, modification input and then finalized after public comments are of land use districts and definitions, concepts for received. The Master Planning phase of the project community site features, plaza spaces, district is programmed for a three month period ending at the signage, streetscapes, circulation and storm water beginning of June. management as well as absorption and build-out
3 Project Phase Descriptions Phase Three – Design Guidelines and Phase Four – Storm Water, Sanitary Sewer, Standards + Zoning Overlay and Water Infrastructure Analysis
The final two phases will run concurrently. During management and parking, architectural design, Under phase four, the existing storm water, sanitary management practices and provide a conceptual level phase three, the design team will work with City staff, landscape and open space design, lighting and sewer and water main systems will be analyzed to verify storm management plan that will enhance public safety steering committee members and other stakeholders to signage. Evaluation of the design review process capacity for the anticipated development based upon and environmental stewardship. The current storm create design guidelines that encourage development and recommendations for a zoning overlay framework the desired Master Plan. A stormwater Master Plan water, sanitary sewer, and water main fee districts will to occur according to the master plan vision. These will be provided. As in other phases, City Council will be developed utilizing the refined land use plan and be reviewed and evaluated. guidelines provide direction to inform developers about and Planning and Zoning Commission input, steering concept master plan to incorporate storm water best the City’s expectations and requirements so that they committee meetings and stakeholder and property may comply with the City’s overall goals and objectives. owner meetings, and a community workshop are key These guidelines will cover a variety of elements to providing valuable input and public buy-in of the including site planning, street circulation, street access outcome.
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Project Phase Descriptions 4
Phase One: Project Initiation Phase One Overview
This report provides a summary of Phase 1 – Project Initiation, the first of four phases that comprise the project. The goal of this phase was to collect data and mapping for the project area, provide a detailed market analysis and engage the stakeholders and public in community input and visioning.
The Consulting team held a kick-off meeting with the City project team comprised of key staff members including Kelly Hayworth, Ellen Habel, Dan Holderness, Jim Kessler, Scott Larson and Sherri Proud. The goal of the kick-off meeting was to set up project protocol, define the City’s goals and vision for the project and tour the project area. The group participated in several interactive exercises designed to gain insight into the project teams’ perception of and vision for the West Land Use Area.
Woodland Stream (Existing Conditions)
Agricultural Fields (Existing Conditions)
5 Phase One Overview Site Inventory with Property Owner Strengths Weaknesses 1. Location – proximity to high growth area and highways 1. Limited access 2. Open slate – “Sky’s the Limit” 2. Traffic 3. Last Chance – GO BIG (Last major development area in Coralville) 3. Longevity of Western Hills Mobile Home Park 4. Friendly property owners 4. Expensive development costs 5. Natural resources 5. Fee district inflation 6. Complimentary to other areas 6. Competition to North 7. Center of the Corridor 7. Expensive construction due to topography 8. Proximity of prison 9. Transportation infrastructure pressure vs. Utility infrastructure 10. Highway 965 traffic 11. Regional retail plateau Opportunities Threats 1. Keep the young people here 1. Transportation/process 2. Define community connectivity for the future 2. Not holding firm on beliefs (administrators) 3. Housing variety/density – Tech corridor 3. Iowa City competition 4. Mix of uses including neighborhood retail 4. Too dense? 5. Respectful preservation 5. Future development pressure (increased traffic) 6. Job creation 6. North Liberty communication/coordination 7. New gateway 7. Competing retail development 8. Back to nature – playscapes 8. Unknown school facilities/impact 9. Sustainability – BMP’s 10. Increase age diversity 11. Collaborate with North Liberty
SWOT Analysis Coralville, Iowa January, 2015 Public Input Meeting Property Ownership Map with Land Use Overlay SWOT Analysis Board
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Phase One Overview 6 Exercise Results (City Project Team) Headline News Summary
In order to gather an idea of the City’s desired outcome for the future West Coralville Offers All You Need implemented project, the team participated in a “Headline News” exercise where they were asked to conceive of mock newspaper headlines announcing the new and newsworthy changes that they imagine taking New Coralville Development: The Place to Be (Mixed Use) place following the development of the new West Land Use Area. They provided the following responses: Coralville Development for the Future
Coralville Unveils a Winning West Plan
Coralville Plans a Green West Border (Sustainable Preservation)
Exciting New Plan for Coralville West Land Use Area
Coralville’s New Vision
Corridor’s New Place to Live!
Live-Work-Play in New Coralville Place
Coralville has More Success on Sustainable Planning
Exciting New Project in Coralville Gives City Vibrant New Front Door at I-80 & I-380
7 Exercise Results (City Project Team) Key Words
Key words identified during the “headline news” exercise provide perspective on the groups’ expectations and desires for the project. They provided the following responses:
Live, Work, Play All Place New Place Sustainable Future Green Exciting Vibrant
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats)
In addition, the City project team took part in a SWOT exercise where the members identified Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats of the project area from their perspective. The following summarizes the teams’ analysis:
Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Location Limited Access Housing Local Competition Open Slate Highway 965 Job Creation Potential Traffic Congestion Natural Resources Development Cost New Gateway Mixed Use
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Exercise Overview ( City Project Team) 8 Exercise Overview (Steering Committee/Stakeholder Input)
To guide the planning process, the City formed a steering committee consisting of community stakeholders, elected officials, planning commissioners, and city staff. They serve as a sounding board to provide input, review the draft documents, make recommendations and weigh competing ideas. In addition, the City identified key stakeholders, including property owners within the project limits. These stakeholders and property owners were asked to meet individually with the consulting team to gain further insight on the project area as well as provide direct input regarding the planning efforts.
The first Steering committee meeting was held on January 14, 2015 and included a recap of the history of the planning process from the 1990’s forward, as well as an explanation of the current project timeline. The consulting team outlined information gathered for this project including previous planning efforts, circulation and traffic patterns as well as site reconnaissance photos and video identifying natural features and sensitive areas.
Ted Kamp from Leland Consulting group presented a preliminary market analysis with a theme “great to be Coralville” as a result of the preponderance of positive statistical data showing excellent growth rate, outstanding retail sales, phenomenal retail pull and enviable psychographic population segments. All these factors led to the conclusion that Coralville’s West Land Use Area contains excellent market growth potential.
After the project status recap, the steering committee participated in a SWOT exercise which provided excellent additional data regarding the steering committee’s perception of the West Land Use Area, its assets and potential challenges.
City Project Team Meeting
9 Exercise Overview (Steering Committee/Stakeholder Input) Tour of Property with Owner Steering Committee Bus Tour
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Exercise Overview (Steering Committee/Stakeholder Input) 10 Exercise Results (Steering Committee/Stakeholder Input)
After the project status recap, the steering committee participated in a SWOT exercise which provided excellent additional data regarding the steering committee’s perception of the West Land Use Area, its assets and potential challenges.
Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Location Limited Access Keep the Young Population Here Transportation/Process Open Slate Highway 965 Traffic Define Community Connectivity Not holding firm on beliefs Last Chance Longevity of Mobile Home Park Housing Variety/Tech Corridor Iowa City Competition Friendly Property Owners Development Cost Mixed Use Area becoming too dense Natural Resources Fee District Inflation Respectful Preservation Future Development Pressure Complimentary to Other Areas Competition to North Job Creation North Liberty Coordination Center of the Corridor Proximity to Prison New Gateway Competing Retail Development Current lack of Utility Infrastructure Back to Nature Unknown Future School Facilities Regional Retail Plateau Playscapes Sustainability Increase Age Diversity Collaborate with North Liberty
11 Exercise Results (City Project Team) Key Stakeholder Comment Summary
Additional input was provided through individual meetings with several community stakeholders and property owners within the West Land Use Area. This included both property owners who reside within the district as well as non-resident developers and land owners. General and recurring comments are outlined here: Best types of uses for the planning area Uses not suited for the property Issues or concerns Other comments • Owner occupied and single family • Office/research park because of the competition • Effective stormwater management and potential • Multi-family housing market is still very strong housing with green space and trails that take from Oakdale Research Park unless the City erosion. • Nearby office research park employees need/want advantage of the natural features. provides infrastructure to mitigate risk. • Protection of natural features and fen. interesting and unique living quarters, not typical • Neighborhood commercial/mixed use that • Retail unless there is sufficient exposure to • Jones Boulevard – currently planned alignment condominiums and apartments. supports the neighborhood. customer traffic. through environmentally sensitive areas and next • Provide greenways with pedestrian and bicycle • A well preserved and managed natural area with a to prison. trails conservation/nature center as a regional draw. • Lack of demand for office and mixed use. • Maintain and improve the woodlands, use for • Lack of support retail (such as coffee shops and parkland and environmental education. lunch establishments) for existing/future office and • Senior living/Assisted living/Wellness campus. research park uses • High density multifamily. • Specialty retail (some demand)
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Key Stakeholder Comment Summary 12 Public Input Overview
On January 21, 2015, approximately 60 people attended an open house held to inform the public about the project and solicit input. Informative mapping, photos and aerial video of the project area were available for viewing. A preferencing exercise using electronic key pad polling was administered at the meeting and gave the City valuable input regarding the types of uses and visual preferences the public preferred for the West Land Use Area.
Turning Point “Clickers”
13 Public Input Overview Public Input General Comments
Other general comments gleaned from conversations with stakeholders and the public at the public meeting and throughout phase one include:
• Provide highly connected pedestrian friendly environment with lots of trails and greens pace. • Provide quality architecture with character. • Protect the fen, woodlands, ravine and sensitive natural features. • Provide stormwater solutions that protect the natural resources. • Provide single family residential housing because it is needed to balance the large percentage of multi-family housing stock currently existing in Coralville.
Public Input Meeting #1
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Public Input General Comments 14 Public Input Preferencing Results (Housing)
Most preferred: Mixed response: Least preferred: single family homes high density middle to high end multi-family entry level multi-family
15 Public Input Preferencing Results (Housing) Public Input Preferencing Results (Parks and Recreation)
Most preferred: Preferred: Mixed response: woodland or prairie trails naturalized areas with water features or ponds manicured park with rustic amenities
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Public Input Preferencing Results (Parks and Recreation) 16 Public Input Preferencing Results (Retail)
Most preferred: Mixed response: Least preferred: unique high quality mixed use and farmer’s market/festival area high quality strip retail “big-box” retail
17 Public Input Preferencing Results (Retail) Public Input Preferencing Results (Office/Corporate Campus)
Most preferred: Mixed response: Least preferred: high-end multi-story corporate with modern architecture high-end multi-story corporate single story low-end office high-end corporate in natural setting - prairie/water moderate residential style office - one story high-end one story office
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Public Input Preferencing Results (Office/Corporate Campus) 18 Public Input Preferencing Results (Streetscape)
Most preferred: Mixed response: Least preferred: pedestrian plaza/downtown retail setting landscaped downtown with pedestrian-centric amenities overlapping pedestrian connections at arterial vehicular intersections well landscaped boulevard with pedestrian lighting residential streets and walks roundabouts
19 Public Input Preferencing Results (Streetscape) Public Input Preferencing Results (Signage and Wayfinding)
Most preferred: Mixed response: Least preferred: existing gateway signage in Coralville use of rustic materials modern roundabout scultpure water feature and landscaping incorporated into signage existing landmark signage in Coralville
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Public Input Preferencing Results (Signage and Wayfinding) 20 Presentation Boards - Project Limits and Context
FOREVERGREEN ROAD
CITY OF CORALVILLE INTERSTATE 380 INTERSTATE
HIGHWAY 6 CORAL RIDGE AVENUE RIDGE CORAL
INTERSTATE 80 SCALE 1:700’
0’ 700’ 1400’ 2100’
21 Presentation Boards - Project Limits and Context Presentation Boards - Property Ownership Plan (Overall)
FOREVERGREEN ROAD Property Owners 1 Rarick (30.5 / 108.1 Acres) 2 Colony (300 Acres) 3 State of Iowa (30 Acres) 4 MGCSMS (38.5 Acres) 5 Reeve (163.55 Acres) 6 Hodge Trust / Oakes (57 Acres) 7 Oakes (45 Acres) 8 Jondle (44.7 Acres) 9 State of Iowa (119.5 Acres) 10 Jajesska (4.5 Acres) 11 Lindtorp325 (7.14 Acres) 12 AFC Development (30.9 Acres) 0 13 Western Hills Residential Park (81.43 Acres)
14 Coralville West Development (96.69 Acres) INTERSTATE 380 INTERSTATE 15 Gough (32.75 Acres) 16 City of Coralvlle (30 Acres) 17 Oakes (27.33 Acres) 18 50 Southwest Enlargement Area 2ND2N STREETSTR D AVENUE RIDGE CORAL 51 ST Southeast Enlargement Area REETEEE SouthwestE EnlargementT Area Southeast Enlargement Area 188 51 95
INTERSTATE 80 SCALE 1:800’
0’ 800’ 1600’ 2400’
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Presentation Boards - Property Ownership Map (Overall) 22 Presentation Boards - Property Ownership Map (Southwest Enlargement)
32 Cherry Creek Southwest Enlargement Area Property Owners (3.78 Acres) 12 AFC Development 33 WestCor (30.9 Acres) (1 Acre)
13 Western Hills Residential Park 34 Zero Energy (81.43 Acres) (4 Acres)
14 Coralville West Development 35 Setin2 (96.69 Acres) (1.69 Acres)
15 Coralville West Development 36 LR Financing (18.95 Acres) (1.39 Acres)
18 K & M 37 Scheels (3.7 Acres) (1.32 Acres)
19 Downe 38 Southgate (1 Acre) (2.66 Acres)
20 Bachmeier 39 WestCor (1.07 Acres) (3.43 Acres) HWY 6 (2ND ST) 21 Courtez 40 ASSK 1 (1.7 Acres) (10 Acres)
PMG 41 West Investment
INTERSTATE 380 INTERSTATE 3 22 (1.26 Acres) (5.03 Acres)
26 23 Bilam 42 Carter (5.37 Acres) (4.79 Acres) WESTCOR DRIVE 24 Braverman 43 WestCor 3 MERCHANT ST. (3.92 Acres) (38.3 Acres) RAILROAD LINE 3 25 Jaras 44 WestCor (18.33 Acres) (29.89 Acres)
2 26 Linn County Rural Elec. 45 Consumer Coop 0 (.57 Acres) (13.45 Acres)
27 US Foods 46 Gaskill JONES BLVD. (11.57 Acres) (13.97 Acres) 28 Consumer Coop 47 WestCor (5.82 Acres) (6.61 Acres) WESTCOR DR 29 Bilam 48 WestCor (4.8 Acres) (4.25 Acres)
30 PMP 49 Warrior (4.08 Acres) (4.54 Acres)
INTERSTATE 80 31 KASR 50 Thiesens SCALE 1:300’ (.6 Acres) (10.19 Acres)
0’ 300’ 600’ 900’
23 Presentation Boards - Property Ownership Map (Southwest Enlargement Area) Presentation Boards - Property Ownership Map (Southeast Enlargement)
Property Owners Southeast Enlargement Area OAKDALE BLVD. 51 SDK Limited (1.3 Acres) 74 Gerdin (6.69 Acres) 52 Ridgewood (.98 Acres) 75 Gerdin (.99 Acres) 522 53 Hawkeye Real Estate (5.3 Acres) 76 Gerdin (1.78 Acres) 54 Jajesska (21.34 Acres) 77 Gerdin (.54 Acres) 55 Edu Invest (3 Acres) 78 Culvers (1.26 Acres) 56 Multi-Family Residential (Approx. 27 Acres) 79 Country Inn (1.82 Acres) 57 Jajesska (40 Acres) 80 Goodwill (2.13 Acres) 58 Gough (12.74 Acres) 81 Intergrated DNA Tech (10.83 Acres) 59 Edwin Enterprises (28 Acres) 82 Walmart (19.02 Acres) 60 Edwin Enterprises (15 Acres) 83 Coralville Center (8.92 Acres) 577 61 Edwin Enterprises (5.45 Acres) 84 Frantz (.4 Acres) 59 62 Edwin Enterprises (6.92 Acres) 85 Gough (11.28 Acres)
63 Edwin Enterprises (5.21 Acres) 86 Consumer Coop (24.72 Acres) 64 M.A. Ewalt Recreation Area (12.6 Acres) 87 Gerdin (2.93 Acres) 65 CostCo (24.72 Acres) 88 Cheddars (2.86 Acres) 66 Gerdin (5. 46 Acres) 89 Stuff Etc (2.06 Acres) 67 67 Rockwell Collins (16.61 Acres) 90 Hawkeye Harley (1.58 Acres) LIBERTY DRIVE 68 Gerdin (5. 46 Acres) 91 Steak & Shake (1.07 Acres) 77 69 Linn County Rural Electric (1.8 Acres) 92 HEARTLAND DRIVE Wendys (1.39 Acres)
COMMERCIAL PARK 70 Mercy Hospital (7.44 Acres) 93 Village Inn (1.19 Acres) CORAL RIDGE AVENUE RIDGE CORAL 83 71 OBGYN Partnership (6 Acres) 94 Caseys (1.27 Acres) JONES BLVD. HWY 6 (2ND ST) 72 Weihe (2.1 Acres) 95 McDonalds (1.31 Acres) 4 73 Walgreens (1.79 Acres)
COMMERCE DRIVE
INTERSTATE 80 SCALE 1:300’
0’ 300’ 600’ 900’
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Presentation Boards - Property Ownership Map (Southeast Enlargement Area) 24 2014 Community Plan - Land Use Plan
LEGEND Low Density Residential 0-6 du/ac
Medium Density Residential 6-16 du/ac Jones Blvd Kansas Ave Front St High Desnity Residential 16+ du/ac
ForevergreenForevergre en Rd
r
D
y Neighborhood Commercial
a
w e dg
Ri asper Ave Nw
Jasper Ave Nw Ave Jasper Corridor Commercial
Crosspark Rd Crosspark 12 Ave Crandic Railroad Crandic Regional Commercial
272 Mixed Use U r niv D er s sit d y o Pk wy Dempster Dr o W n
e k Research Park o
r
B
Interstate 380 Interstate $PSQPSBUF$BNQVT1SPGFTTJPOBM0GæDF Glen Oaks Rdg Oak dal 3803 e R TIFFIN d g Industrial Oakdale Blvd
Oakdale Rd
965
O Dr Belmont Public/Semi-Public l d Ho sp Coral Ct Coral ita l Rd Parks
Chad Dr Open Space Cambridge Dr Westcor Ct Holiday Ct 6 Lynncrest Dr
Generry Dr Westcor Dr N Ridge Dr Potential Streets
Coral Ridge Ave Farrel Dr
d lv B s e Heartland Dr n o Park Ridge Dr Coralville Boundary
J S Ridge Dr
Parkway Dr day Holi Rd Commerce Dr Future Bridge
80 Project Boundary
Interstate 80 340 St
SCALE 1:800’ 13 St 12 St 11 St 0’ 800’ 1600’ 2400’ 20
10 St A d Plan graphic produced by Houseal Lavigne Associates, March 2014
25 2014 Community Plan - Land Use Plan 2014 Community Plan - Transportation Plan
LEGEND Interstate Highway/Freeway
Arterial
Collector
Local Street
Potential Arterial
Potential Collector
Potential Local Street
Coralville Boundary
Project Boundary
Interchange (with City street)
Interchange (with Interstate)
Proposed Interchange
Future Bridge
SCALE 1:800’
0’ 800’ 1600’ 2400’ Plan graphic produced by Houseal Lavigne Associates, March 2014
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Presentation Boards - Transportation Plan 26 2014 Community Plan - Shared Use Pathways
LEGEND Share Use Path
Shared Use Path (Proposed)
Bike Lane/Sharrow
Coralville Boundary
Future Bridge
Project Boundary
SCALE 1:800’
0’ 800’ 1600’ 2400’ Plan graphic produced by Houseal Lavigne Associates, March 2014
27 2014 Community Plan - Shared Pathways 2014 Community Plan - Natural Resources
LEGEND Park
Open Space
Agricultureal Land
100 Year Flood Plain
500 Year Flood Plain
1 Mile Park Service Area
Woodland Areas
Coralville Boundary
Project Boundary
SCALE 1:800’
0’ 800’ 1600’ 2400’ Plan graphic produced by Houseal Lavigne Associates, March 2014
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines 2014 Community Plan - Natural Resources 28 Presentation Boards - Site Analysis
LEGEND
Interstate
FOREVERGREEN ROAD Major Arterial Road
Arterial Road
Primary Intersection
Secondary Intersection
OAKLAND ROAD Wetland/Sensitive Environmental Feature INTERSTATE 380 INTERSTATE
Sensitive Slopes
HIGHWAY 6
Views CORAL RIDGE AVENUE RIDGE CORAL
Noise
City Limits INTERSTATE 80
SCALE 1:800’
0’ 800’ 1600’ 2400’
29 Presentation Boards - Site Analysis Presentation Boards - Land Use/Property Ownership Overlay
FOREVERGREEN ROAD LEGEND Low Density Residential 0-6 du/ac
Medium Density Residential 6-16 du/ac
High Desnity Residential 16+ du/ac
Neighborhood Commercial
Corridor Commercial
Regional Commercial
Mixed Use
Research Park
$PSQPSBUF$BNQVT1SPGFTTJPOBM0GæDF
Industrial INTERSTATE 380 INTERSTATE Public/Semi-Public
Parks
HIGHWAY 6 AVENUE RIDGE CORAL Open Space
Future Bridge
INTERSTATE 80 SCALE 1:800’
0’ 800’ 1600’ 2400’
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Presentation Boards - Timeline 30 Presentation Boards - Photo Inventory (1)
31 Presentation Boards - Photo Inventory (1) Presentation Boards - Photo Inventory (2)
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Presentation Boards - Photo Inventory (2) 32 Presentation Boards - Photo Inventory (3)
33 Presentation Boards - Photo Inventory (3) Presentation Boards - Photo Inventory (4)
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Presentation Boards - Photo Inventory (4) 34
Market Analysis Market Analysis
Contents Executive Summary With Coralville’s annexation boundaries now largely solidified, the West Land Use Area (WLUA) represents the city’s primary remaining area for development, particularly for land uses of higher densities and value. Contents ...... 2 Planning and design efforts underway now will provide a critical framework for shaping this future Executive Summary ...... 3 development in the coming decades. Capacity for Development ...... 3 Demographics, Psychographics ...... 3 Residential Demand...... 3 Leland Consulting Group has analyzed supply and demand conditions, along with demographic and Retail Demand ...... 4 economic factors to support these efforts. Findings and recommendations in this report should help to “right- Office and R&D/Flex Demand ...... 4 size” the varied residential, commercial and civic land use elements. That is, by providing a range of Lodging ...... 4 absorption projections across major real estate categories, this analysis will inform efforts to maximize the Strategic Discussion ...... 5 quality and value of the WLUA’s long-term development, at a quantity and pace consistent with market CORALVILLE WEST LAND USE AREA realities. Analytic Objectives ...... 5 Overview ...... 5 Capacity for Development Key Question(s): ...... 5 Nearly 1,900 acres in total, the WLUA has approximately 1,000 acres remaining in vacant tracts awaiting for Study Area ...... 6 future development (excluding major rights-of-way, developed land, and designated parks, open space and other public parcels). Trade Area Discussion ...... 7 Applying likely zoning guidelines to remaining vacant parcels, the WLUA has the physical capacity to Economic Context ...... 9 accommodate approximately 4,000 housing units, 1.7 million square feet of retail development, 2.6 million square feet of office development, and another 240,000 square feet of R&D/Flex space. Demographic Overview ...... 12 Population Characteristics, Age and Ethnicity ...... 12 Demographics, Psychographics Household and Housing Characteristics ...... 14 Coralville combines many of the most desirable demographic conditions for development: strong growth (at Psychographic / Lifestyle Segments ...... 17 roughly double national rates for annual increases in population and employment), with a well-educated, generally affluent and young populace. Psychographic segmentation (such as ESRI’s Tapestry system) Market Analysis by Land Use ...... 23 highlights many of the most sought-after target markets, such as Bright Young Professionals, Enterprising Residential ...... 23 Professionals, and Emerald City within the area’s immediate vicinity. Supply Conditions ...... 23 Estimating Demand ...... 26 Indicators of growth, affluence and well-educated youth are nearly unmatched in Iowa (rivaled only by Dallas Retail ...... 31 County in suburban Des Moines), but the overall size of the region -- even when combining Johnson and Supply Conditions ...... 31 Linn Counties – is not on par with major metropolitan areas elsewhere in the U.S. This fact has the dual Estimating Demand ...... 32 effect of preserving some of the area’s valued quality-of-life while limiting prospects for certain retail tenants Office ...... 36 and national developers, and probably also limits the local appetite (and market) for higher density land uses. Supply Conditions ...... 36 Estimating Demand ...... 36 Lodging ...... 39 Residential Demand RECAP of Strategic Issues ...... 40 The WLUA will likely compete for prospective renters and homeowners across a much wider region. With Johnson County as this regional trade area, growing at approximately 1.6 percent annually (a blended rate MARKET ANALYSIS AND based on multiple sources), we estimate residential demand at approximately 8,600 units per decade Appendix: Strategic Development Recommendations ...... 41 (excluding some 1,300 units for subsidized market segments). STRATEGY REPORT (DRAFT) Of this countywide per-decade demand, the study area should be able to capture approximately:
x 280 to 420 single family detached homes
x 210 to 320 attached ownership homes (townhomes, condos, rowhomes, etc.)
x 300 to 450 rental apartments
In total, the WLUA could realistically absorb between 790 and 1,180 total new residential units across LELAND CONSULTING GROUP each 10 year period going forward. At this rate, vacant residential land capacity could be exhausted within just over 30 years (sooner, in fact, for single family detached).
February 2015
35 Market Analysis Market Analysis
Apartment demand appears strong enough to withstand aggressive multifamily expansion now underway. Strategic Discussion o How much new demand is likely to be created in the trade area over the next 10 to 20 Key residential market segments could include age-restricted communities (for which there is already years? substantial interest in the development community). Detached, medium to lower density housing appears to x Growth, affluence, strong demographics all in place for healthy development What share of that demand can likely be captured within the WLUA, given its likely be a natural move-up market for young professionals already in the area, but its location within the WLUA o competitive position in the market? may need to be revisited. x Coralville’s land use mix is skewed heavily towards the commercial – a good thing fiscally, but over time it needs to support more of its own retail x Given the above findings, along with stakeholder desires, what strategic considerations should guide Retail Demand the approach to development in this area? x Both higher and low-medium density residential will be a very important component in balancing Largely because of Coral Ridge Mall and its surrounding big-box development, Coralville has by far the growth in the WLUA highest ratio of retail square footage per capita among Iowa cities. While the mall itself my draw customers from multiple counties (including Linn), leakage/pull data suggests that for overall retail sales, the city’s x 1,900 acres is a lot of and will take many years to fill out, especially at higher densities (and higher primary market area probably consists of northern Johnson County and northeast Iowa County. value) Study Area Despite the abundance of relatively new retail in the area, this regional trade area is expected to generate x Forevergreen Road interchange will disturb natural south-to-north progression of development new demand for another 650,000 to 700,000 square feet of household-based retail/dining demand over each The study area boundary for coming decade. Of this, the WLUA could capture approximately 160,000 to 220,000 square feet. In addition Figure 1: Geographic Study Area to this household-based demand, the WLUA could realistically absorb another 20,000 to 30,000 square feet x North Liberty is a competitive question mark -- historically content in bedroom community role, new this analysis originated as generated by daytime dining and retail needs of new office and R&D employees. interchange may spur desire for more retail presence the “Northwest Growth Area,” a similar geography used in In total, the WLUA should be able to absorb 180,000 to 250,000 s.f. in new retail per decade, across non- x The size surge in retail inventory from Coral Ridge is necessarily a one-time event for a market this the 2013 community planning automotive store categories. Note that the existing supply of vacant land zoned for commercial development size. Future retail expansion will be in smaller, steadier chunks. work completed by Houseal far exceeds this demand for the foreseeable future. Lavigne Associates. x Currently designated land uses for the WLUA are probably skewed too much to the commercial Office and R&D/Flex Demand (some over-zoning for commercial is good to preserve flexibility for high value development, but Now somewhat modified, the there appears to be enough slack to shift more towards residential). West Land Use Area (WLUA) The WLUA will likely compete most heavily for white-collar employment development with other sites in has boundaries extending Johnson County (although, from a recruiting standpoint, its competition stretches across the nation). Using x Lower-density residential currently sandwiched between commercial uses could be swapped or generally from Interstate 380 industry growth rates based on projections from the Johnson County MPO and the State of Iowa, we project shifted on the West to Coral Ridge the need for approximately 725,000 new square feet of office space and 450,000 square feet of R&D/Flex Avenue on the east. space in Johnson County over the next 10 years. Interstate 80 is the southern boundary, with the Coralville The WLUA is particularly well-positioned to capture a robust share of office development and a particularly city boundary forming most aggressive share of R&D development, resulting in realistic absorption of 150,000 to 220,000 s.f. of office of the northern boundary, just and 135,000 to 180,000 s.f. of R&D/flex space over each coming decade. Analytic Objectives south of Forevergreen Road. Of the land uses considered here, R&D development may be the most difficult to forecast. Trends in national At just over 1,900 acres, the research and manufacturing priorities, together with economies of agglomeration and scale could WLUA makes up most of the conceivably create a tipping point towards much higher demand for Coralville-area facilities already active in western portion of the City of those markets. Overview Coralville, bounded by the municipality of Tiffen on the As with retail, however, Office in the WLUA has more supply than is likely to be needed for many decades to Leland Consulting Group was retained by the design and planning firm Confluence to provide an analysis of west and North Liberty on the come. Land for R&D, on the other hand is comparatively scarce, with available supply lying just to the east of the market potential for new development within the West Land Use Area (“WLUA”) in Coralville, Iowa. From North. the WLUA on the university research campus. If Coralville can attract private sector bio/tech and related a market and economic perspective, this study is intended to support a broader planning process now complementary firms to its university-adjacent land, it could be in need of more than the 500,000 vacant R&D underway for that study area. Findings and recommendations in this report should help to “right-size” the A more zoomed-out regional perspective is shown in Figure 2. acres now available. varied residential, commercial and civic land use elements. That is, by providing a range of absorption projections across major real estate categories, this analysis will inform efforts to maximize the quality and value of the WLUA’s long-term development, at a quantity and pace consistent with market realities. Lodging There are currently approximately 2,400 hotel rooms in the Coralville/Iowa City/North Liberty combined market. With existing interstate frontage and a planned new interchange at Forevergreen Road and I-380, Key Question(s): Coralville has the opportunity to both upgrade and expand its hotel offering. x What existing market and economic factors (including demographics) affect development in general Long-term growth in the business, leisure, and meeting/convention segments could add the need for in the study area and broader region? approximately 380 additional rooms per decade (or more if Johnson County can take share from the Linn County lodging market. The WLUA is well-situated to capture approximately 25 to 35 percent of this new x For each major land use under consideration (including office, retail, multifamily residential, single- demand, resulting in the equivalent of a 100-room hotel per decade or more. family residential and more specialized categories such as lodging, medical and R&D)… o What are the relevant market trade areas? o What are the existing competitive supply conditions? (including planned/proposed activity)
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Market Analysis 36 Market Analysis
Figure 2: Study Area (regional view) x The location decision for office development is also based on a variety of factors, including proximity to an educated workforce, executives’ residences, desirable community amenities, and access to similar and complementary businesses. As with residential, the trade area definition for office is more competition-based than customer-based, per se. Economic Context Each of the above trade area considerations are shaped by physical, political, perceptual, regulatory, and demographic forces, among other factors. For this analysis, we have generally erred on the side of larger The nation (and much of the world) saw a prolonged economic slowdown beginning in 2008, without sized trade areas for each major land use type, in recognition of the regional importance of the subject area substantial improvement until 2011. This recession was evident across all sectors of the economy, but and its abundance of available land. In the case of retail, the trade area is particularly large, geographically, perhaps best understood through its impact on total employment levels. The thick blue line in Figure 4 shows because of the absence of meaningful retail competition serving households located directly to the west or nationwide job growth, indexed to a base of 2004. east of the study area, across mostly rural parts of Johnson County. In contrast, Coralville’s Johnson County experienced a much less dramatic decline in total employment The map in Figure 3 depicts both Johnson County (used as a trade area in residential, office and R&D/flex during the heart of the recession and has gone on to grow its jobs base by 14 percent over the decade, demand calculations) and a light red shaded Retail Trade Area extending further to the west but omitting the versus just under 4 percent for the U.S. overall. southern portion of Johnson County. The WLUA study area itself is still shown with dotted dark red outline.
Figure 3: Johnson County and Retail Trade Area Figure 4: Percent Employment Growth since 2004, U.S. vs. Johnson County
Trade Area Discussion
To understand competitive supply and likely demand forces we look beyond the immediate vicinity of the study area, and beyond the borders of the City of Coralville, to consider the broader geographies likely to directly influence market performance of the various proposed land uses for the WLUA. Each land use type (and, in reality, each individual real estate project) will draw support and competition from differently sized Source: BLS and Leland Consulting Group and shaped territories.
x For retail, the analytic goal of defining a “trade area” is generally to encompass likely customers, whose The makeup of Johnson County employment is generally strong in relatively high-paying sectors, perhaps spending power will fuel a significant majority of sales in future study area shops and eateries. reflecting the influence of its university proximity. The map in Figure 5 shows major employers in the vicinity Competitive supply (both existing and potential) will also, logically, tend to fall within that same trade of Coralville. The center of each census block has a dot sized by the number of employees and darker dots area. Neighborhood stores like supermarkets tend to have much smaller trade areas than big box stores, representing higher wage jobs1. which in turn have smaller catchment areas than regional malls or, at the extreme, massive free-standing retail attractions like Bass Pro or Cabela’s.
x For residential uses the concept is not quite as straightforward, since most prospective homebuyers and renters will not already live in the trade area. Instead, the goal is to assume that the WLUA will capture some portion of the forecasted growth in a larger trade area by competing with other projects in that area. Consumers (buyers and renters) who will consider the WLUA—based on family, lifestyle and employment considerations—will presumably also consider other nearby developments. 1 The data for this map, from the U.S. Census Local Employment Dynamics database uses some minor randomization of locations and sizes of firms to help protect employer privacy. In general, dot locations and sizes tend to be reasonably accurate, however.
37 Market Analysis Market Analysis
Figure 6: Occupational Classification of Coralville Residents, versus County - State - Nation
Figure 5: Coralville Area Employment by Size and Wage 80.0% 72 70.0% 67 Demographic Overview 58 60 60.0%
50.0% Generally speaking, the demographic analysis of Coralville and the countywide trade area to be more 40.0% affluent, younger-skewing and faster-growing when compared to other areas in Iowa and the nation overall. 30.0% In part due to the influence of the nearby University of Iowa, residents of both Coralville and Johnson County are not quite as prototypically suburban in nature than other fast-growing counties in Iowa (such as Dallas 20.0% County, west of Des Moines). 10.0% 0.0% Coralville Johnson County Iowa U.S. Population Characteristics, Age and Ethnicity White Collar Services Blue Collar In terms of population growth, the city of Coralville have well outpaced the state of Iowa and nation as a whole in recent years, growing at nearly 2 percent annually since 2000. Johnson County’s overall growth The state of Iowa, in general has been less greatly impacted by the recent housing-sector related recession. rate is nearly as high, with 1.7 percent annual growth over that same period. As of 2014, the county Figure 7 illustrates, at the statewide level, home price trends before, during and after the recession. This time population had exceeded 135,000 residents. using 2000 as an anchor year, note how overall U.S. home prices rose much higher than in the state of Iowa, and consequently fell more precipitously during the housing bust. While Iowa home prices have actually Projected future growth rates, from a variety of data sources, are discussed in greater detail in the residential grown slightly less overall since 2000, the region was spared much of the volatility that plagued other demand section of this report. metropolitan areas. Table 1. Population Characteristics City of Johnson State of Iowa U.S. Coralville County
Population 2000 15,560 111,006 2,926,324 281,421,906 Population 2010 18,907 130,882 3,046,355 308,745,538 Annual Growth Rate, 2000-2010 1.97% 1.66% 0.4% 0.9% Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group
Note that employment along Highway 6 is reasonably plentiful in Coralville, but the wage rates (typically for retailers) are lower than seen in the University of Iowa area (or the correctional facility within the WLUA). Population Annual Growth Rate
Although jobs in Coralville include a mix of higher and lower paying, Coralville residents tend to have a higher 8.0% percentage of white collar (office, administrative, professional) occupations, relative to regional comparisons. 7.0% Figure 6 shows the breakout of occupational types in Coralville relative to Johnson County, the state of Iowa 6.0% and the U.S. 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Figure 7: Housing Price Growth Since 2000, U.S. vs. State of Iowa 1.0% 0.0% Source: FHFA House Price Index and Leland Consulting Group
-1.0% Clive Pella Ames Boone Carroll Marion Clinton Ankeny Keokuk Altoona Newton Waverly Waukee Spencer Waterloo Ottumwa Johnston Indianola Dubuque -2.0% Coralville Iowa City Sioux City Burlington Muscatine Urbandale Bettendorf Davenport While this housing price index data is not available for Johnson County, it appears that, as a state, Iowa is Oskaloosa Mason City Mason Fort Dodge Cedar Falls Cedar Storm Lake Des Moines Des North Liberty North State of Iowa of State Fort Madison Marshalltown Cedar Rapids Cedar somewhat more sound fundamentally and perhaps less prone to boom-and-bust extremes than other regions Bluffs Council
in the U.S. This may be due, in part, to the tendency in Iowa to rely on local homebuilders who are perhaps Moines Des West more in tune with market-specific demand fluctuations than national builders.
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Market Analysis 38 Market Analysis
Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group
Population Annual Growth Rate (Major Coralville skews 4.5% 25.0% Counties) strongly towards Note that, consistent with the age and household size profiles, both Coralville and Johnson County a higher 4.0% the 25 - 35 age percentage than either the state of Iowa overall or the U.S. average. As discussed in the residential demand 3.5% bracket Coralville analysis to follow, the percent of renters is assumed to remain constant over time, but could change as a 20.0% Iowa result of a shift in zoning policy. 3.0% U.S. 2.5% Housing values are significantly higher in Coralville and Johnson County than statewide in Iowa (but on par with U.S. averages. 2.0% 15.0% 1.5% Table 4. Housing Characteristics (2014 Est.) 1.0% 10.0% City of Johnson State of Iowa U.S. Coralville County 0.5% Owner Occupied 0.0% 5.0% 54% 58% 71% 63% -0.5% Renter Occupied 46% 42% 29% 37% -1.0% 0.0% Median Owner-Occupied Home $250,686 $245,250 $169,941 $261,032 0 to 5 1015253545556585over Value Percent Units Vacant (2010) 4 85 8.1% 6.2% 8.9% 11.6% Age Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group Although the Hispanic population has grown steadily nationwide, city and county residents here are predominantly non-Hispanic whites. In terms of age, the City of Coralville has a significant skew towards Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group As illustrated in the figure below, relative to the state and nation, Coralville has fewer households earning residents age 25 to 44, relative to the county, state and nation. Due in large part to the University of Iowa below $35,000 and more households earning in the $100,000 to $150,000 range (although a slightly smaller presence, Johnson County overall has an even younger-skewing population age profile. As shown in the figure above, the primary trade area has a distinct spike in resident population for ages 25 to percentage than the U.S. earning in the top $200,000 bracket). State of Iowa incomes, overall, are most 44, as well as generally higher proportions of children under age ten. This is consistent with the tendency pronounced at the solidly middle-class bracket of $50,000 to $75,000. Table 2. Age and Ethnicity (2014 Est.) towards homeownership and family household arrangements, as discussed in the following section. City of Johnson State of Iowa U.S. Coralville County Household and Housing Characteristics Race, White Alone 78.1% 84.3% 90.2% 71.2% Just 52 percent percent of Johnson County households are classified as “families” under the Census Ethnicity, Hispanic (regardless of race) 6.1% 5.6% 5.7% 17.5% definition of two or more related persons living together. Both Coralville and the county have a considerably higher portion of non-family residents than either the state or nation. This pattern is also reflected in the average household size, where city has 2.29 people per households versus 2.57 nationwide. Age 0-24 32.4% 40.6% 33.5% 33.1% Looking forward, household sizes have been notoriously difficult to predict. Age demographics, dominated by Age 25-44 36.5% 28.3% 24.2% 26.2% the Baby Boom population bulge entering their 50s, 60s, and 70s, would suggest declining household size. Age 45+ 31.0% 31.1% 42.4% 40.7% Over the past two decades, however, this factor has been nearly canceled out by immigration trends, which have generally favored larger households. Given that the trade area is less influenced by immigration, household sizes could actually gradually decline further over time during the course of WLUA development. As this occurs, housing needs and preferences will also gradually shift towards smaller home sizes and slowly increased preference for renting.
Table 3. Household Characteristics (2014 Est.) Figure 8. Population Age Distribution, Coralville versus the State and Nation City of Johnson State of Iowa U.S. Coralville County
Household Count 7,882 55,311 1,253,815 119,862,927 Average Household Size 2.29 2.33 2.40 2.57 "Family" Households (2+ related persons) 53% 52% 64% 66% "Non-Family" Households 47% 48% 36% 34%
39 Market Analysis Market Analysis
Figure 9: Households by Income Bracket, 2014, Coralville - State - Nation Figure 10: Dominant Tapestry Segments by Census Block Group Percent With Bachelor's Degree (Major Counties) 60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Psychographic / Lifestyle Segments
Psychographics is a term used to describe characteristics of people and neighborhoods which, instead of being purely demographic, measure their attitudes, interests, opinions, and lifestyles. Commercial retail developers, in particular, are interested in understanding a community’s psychographic profile, as this is an indication of its residents’ propensity to spend across select retail categories. Residential developers are also interested in understanding this profile as it tends to suggest preferences for certain housing products. ESRI Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group has developed a system for categorizing U.S. neighborhoods into 65 different market segments based on demographic, lifestyle, and consumer traits. Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group As shown in Table 5, Johnson County has nearly one-quarter of its households earning over $100,000 or more, versus just 18 percent for the state as a whole. The ratio of average (mean) household income to As shown in the table below, the City of Coralville area is dominated by three main segments, Young and median household incomes is generally a good indicator of income disparity, with higher ratios indicating a Restless, Enterprising Professionals, and In Style. Johnson County as a whole has a top three of Bright While each neighborhood includes a blend of households from many different psychographic segments, the wider gap between the very wealthy and the general populace. Note that Coralville and Iowa in general have Young Professionals, In Style and College Towns (obviously an Iowa City-dominated segment). These map in Figure 10 above shows the predominant Tapestry segments found in each census block group in the less disparity than the U.S. as a whole by this measure. segments, described on the following pages, make up almost one half of all county households. The county vicinity of the study area. Summary descriptions of four key area Tapestry segments are shown on the has nearly 8 times the number of the desirable Bright Young Professionals segment, per capita than the following pages (from ESRI Inc.). These include: Projecting into the future, there is no strong rationale for assuming either a decline or increase in trade area United States as a whole. household incomes. Housing prices, generally speaking, tend to reinforce existing patterns in income x Enterprising Professionals distribution over time. Table 6. Top Three Psychographic (Tapestry) Segments, City – County – State – U.S. x In Style City of Coralville Johnson County State of Iowa U.S. Table 5. Household Incomes (2014 Est.) x Bright Young Professionals City of Johnson State of U.S. Young and Restless Bright Young Prairie Living Green Acres Coralville County Iowa Professionals x Emerald City Enterprising In Style Heartland Southern Satellites Household Income Professionals Communities 22.8% 24.4% 18.3% 21.8% $100,000+ In Style College Towns Rustbelt Traditions Savvy Suburbanites Average Income $69,437 $72,260 $65,662 $72,809 Median Income $54,897 $56,428 $52,406 $52,076 Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group Ratio of Average to Median Income 1.26 1.28 1.25 1.40 Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Market Analysis 40 Market Analysis
41 Market Analysis Market Analysis
Each of the segments discussed above are important groups to understand when thinking about the market for various real estate products in the WLUA over the coming decades. While demographic trends come and go, ESRI and other psychographic and geo-demographic segmentation data providers have found that neighborhoods are quite resistant to change in terms of the type of residents they tend to attract. 200% U.S.
150% Johnson County Market Analysis by Land Use Coralville 100%
Residential 50%
The market for residential units in the WLUA is assumed to be a function of projected household growth across a wider geography—in this case, a competitive trade area covering the whole of Johnson County. In 0% other words, the study area is expected to primarily compete with other locations in the county as a potential home for newly formed households, presumably drawn to the region for proximity to employment, family, desired amenities, etc. Percent Above Annual Average -50% Supply Conditions Figure 11, showing annual building permit activity for Coralville since 2000, illustrates the overall cyclicality of -100% the residential construction market, especially as driven by the contribution of multifamily permits (shaded darker). The greater volatility in multifamily construction is a common national phenomenon, related in part to 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 that sector’s reliance on market driven commercial builders and landlords to construct large apartment properties. Such properties are only feasible under certain market conditions and within a somewhat favorable banking/lending environment. Source: U.S. Census and Leland Consulting Group
Figure 11. Building Permits by Year, Single-family and Multifamily Trends in total permits, depicted in Figure 12 relative to Johnson County and the nation as a whole, shows City of Coralville Coralville as experiencing a noticeably earlier spike in permits versus these comparison areas. While the national homebuilding bubble was driven largely by permitting activity in 2004 through 2006, Coralville was comparatively dormant by that time. Also, Coralville experienced a somewhat more pronounced earlier rebound in 2011 versus the national market.
Summarized in Table 7, Johnson County, our residential trade area, has averaged just over 1,000 total units permitted per year since 2000, with a peak of 1,517 in 2003. 2010 was a low point for city, county and national building permits with just 519 issued for Johnson County that year (with just 40 in Coralville).
Median Home Values (Major Iowa Counties) 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Source: U.S. Census and Leland Consulting Group 40,000 20,000 0 Figure 12. Building Permits by Year since 2000 Coralville, Johnson County and U.S.
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Market Analysis 42 Market Analysis
Table 7: Annual Total Building Permits since 2000, Average, Peaks, Lows Estimating Demand cause turnover dynamics to favor more affluent households. Table 9 below summarizes these demand estimates by income and rental versus ownership unit type. To estimate future demand for new homes and apartments within the WLUA study area, we begin by comparing multiple sources for population and household growth forecasts to arrive at a realistic growth rate Annual Peak Peak Low Low Year It is important to emphasize that the real world relationship between household incomes and housing prices Average Annual Year Annual for the Johnson County trade area. The following estimates and growth projections served as benchmarks for this analysis: is not as formulaic as assumed below. We use rough industry-standard affordability guidelines to produce approximations of demand by price and rent level, but actual consumer choices can vary greatly based on United States 1,347,573 2,155,316 2005 582,963 2010 household wealth, credit ratings and personal preferences, among other factors. Geography Source Time Period Annual Johnson County, IA 1,008 1,517 2003 519 2010 Growth Rate City of Coralville 156 377 2001 40 2010 Also note that we assume a constant proportion of renters to owners over the coming decade. It is also City of Coralville ESRI, household counts based on Census 2000-2010 1.97% possible that policies in Coralville and elsewhere in Johnson County may begin to favor a higher proportion of estimates ownership housing. City of Coralville ESRI, household count projections 2014-2019 1.28% As shown in Figure 13, the $200,000 to $350,000 price range encompassed the majority (53 percent) of Johnson County new home sales in 2014 (as tracked by Hanley Woods/Metrostudy). Approximately 20 City of Coralville Johnson County MPO, TAZ-level dwelling 2010-2040 1.76% percent of sales volume also occurred at the below-$200,000 level with about 27 percent above $350,000. unit projections. Johnson County Johnson County MPO, TAZ-level dwelling 2010-2040 1.70% Figure 13. New Home Sales by Price Bracket (urbanized areas unit projections. Johnson County, 2014 only) Johnson County U.S. Census, historical household count 2000-2010 1.66% estimates Johnson County ESRI, household count projections 2014-2019 1.46%
Johnson County Iowa State Demographer, population 2010-2040 1.59% forecasts Based on county-level projections from Woods & Poole, Inc.
For our initial 10-year demand estimation period, we use a conservative blended rate of 1.58 percent household growth annually for Johnson County.
The 2014 base of 55,311 households grown at a rate of 1.58 percent annually through 2024 results in household growth of 9,393 over ten years. Applying a 5 percent factor to account for a vacancy/turnover buffer, demolition and a modest amount of second-home purchase activity, results in an adjusted 10-year demand for approximately 9,863 units for the residential trade area.
Table 8. Demand Inputs Residential Trade Area - 2014 to 2024
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence/Metrostudy and Leland Consulting Group Households 2014 55,311
2019 64,704 Annual Growth 1.58% Multifamily housing inventory in Johnson County seems to be perennially in a state of undersupply, owing Rate largely to the University of Iowa’s student population growth. A survey of over 4,500 Johnson county Household Growth (2014-24) 9,393 apartments compiled by Cook Appraisal, LLC in 2013 found overall county apartment vacancy to be 0.62 percent – essentially fully occupied. Such market tightness means that turnover is artificially constrained and rents are invariably driven upwards. This is a fairly common phenomenon is college-dominated smaller urban Adjust for 2nd homes, demolition, 5.0% areas. The same study found that this extreme high occupancy extended into Coralville as well, where natural vacancy vacancy rates were also approaching zero (0.33 percent). Adjusted Unit Requirement (2014-2024) 9,863
Although there are a number of apartment projects currently in the under-construction and Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group planned/proposed inventory pipeline, they should be easily absorbed into the market given this level of undersupply. Leland Consulting Groups estimates that Johnson County, with approximately 22,000 total rental units in 2014, could add fully 960 new units to its multifamily inventory just to bring the market up to a 5 percent “healthy equilibrium” level – that is, without any new demand from This gross unit demand is further allocated into approximate income-qualified rent and home price groups. household growth. The analysis assumes a slight upward shift in trade area real household incomes over time (using constant 2014 dollars) as employment conditions gradually improve over time and housing affordability requirements
43 Market Analysis Market Analysis
Table 9. Residential Demand by Income Table 10. Single Family Detached Units over $200K $500K and up 412 20% 82 10% 8 15% 12 Primary Trade Area - 2013 to 2023 10-year Study Area Capture of Trade Area Demand Totals 5,574 38% 2,098 10% 210 15% 315 Trade Area Demand (10-yr) Annual Approx. Home Trade Area Est. Pct. Detached Conservative Conservative Attainable Attainable Income Price Range For-Sale Detached Demand Capture Rate Subject Capture Subject Annual Income Approx. Approx. Current HHs New HHs Total Units (Est. Pct. Total Total Range Demand (within Capture Rate Capture Source: Leland Consulting Group Range (2014 Rent Range Home Price in Income by Income Rental) Rental Ownership detached) (units.) (within (units.) dollars) Range Bracket Bracket Units Units detached) For this analysis, we assume that trade area single family attached development (including such formats as $15-25K $100 to $150K 251 65% 163 8% 13 12% 20 townhomes, condominiums, paired homes, rowhouses, and some lofts), as a percentage of all ownership development, will stabilize at approximately 38 percent of all ownership unit construction. This would suggest up to $15K $25-35K $150 to $200K 399 60% 240 up to $375 up to $100K 15% 13% 1,282 85% 1,090 192 8% 19 12% 29 a gradual increase in such attached development – an assumption based on multiple factors including: 1) an $15-25K existing acceptance for medium-density housing in the area, 2) a post-recession rebound in developers’ $35-50K $200 to $250K 651 50% 325 8% 26 12% 39 $375 - $625 $100 to $150K 10% 10% 1,006 75% 754 251 willingness to build condo/townhome units, and 3) a continued shift in age demographics, led by Baby $25-35K $50-75K $250 to $350K 1,109 50% 555 Boomers, resulting in greater demand for homes with ownership benefits and privacy, but lower maintenance $625 - $875 $150 to $200K 8% 9% 888 55% 488 399 8% 44 12% 67 requirements. $35-50K $75-100K $350 to $500K 1,050 60% 630 8% 50 12% 76 $875 - $1,000 $200 to $250K 11% 12% 1,184 45% 533 651 $100-150K $500K and up 1,274 70% 892 $50-75K 8% 71 12% 107 Subject property absorption of single family attached units is estimated to range between 210 and 315 units $1,000+ $250 to $350K 17% 17% 1,706 35% 597 1,109 over each future 10-year period, depending on whether capture rates are conservative or attainable. At an $150 -200K $500K and up 426 80% 341 $75-100K 8% 27 12% 41 average of 16 units per acre, that would result in net residential land requirements of 13 to 20 acres, $1,000+ $350 to $500K 14% 14% 1,401 25% 350 1,050 over $200K $500K and up 412 80% 330 respectively. $100-150K 8% 26 12% 40 $1,000+ $500K and up 15% 15% 1,499 15% 225 1,274 Totals 5,574 62% 3,476 8% 278 12% 417 Overall market rate apartment demand in the Johnson County trade area over 10 years is expected to $150 -200K $1,000+ $500K and up 5% 5% 473 10% 47 426 exceed 3,000 units. With a subject property capture rate ranging from 10 to 15 percent overall, the WLUA could absorb between 300 and 450 units, approximately, in each future decade. over $200K $1,000+ $500K and up 4% 4% 434 5% 22 412 Source: Leland Consulting Group Totals Table 12. Rental Apartments 100% 100% 9,863 42% 4,106 5,766 Within the market for single family detached units, approximately 5,574 market rate units are expected to be 10-year Study Area Capture of Trade Area Demand required in Johnson County each future 10 year period. Of this, the WLUA subject properties should be able Source: ESRI, Leland Consulting Group to capture between 8 and 12 percent of the market, which equates to approximately 280 to 350 units per Annual Income Approx. Rent Trade Area Conservative Conservative Attainable Attainable decade. At an average expected density of 7 units per acre, that range of development would require Range Range Rental Demand Capture Rate Downtown Capture Rate Downtown The above table is based on growth inputs that are essentially exponential in nature (i.e., increase by a given approximately 40 to 60 acres within residential parcels for development for each 10 year period. (within rentals) Capture (within rentals) Capture percentage each year, rather than a flat amount). To extrapolate beyond this ten year timeframe, it makes (units.) (units.) increasing sense to shift to a “straight-line” projection approach. In other words, we can assume that the 10- This somewhat low assumed single-family capture rate is based in part on the high expected value of the $15-25K $375 - $625 754 10% 75 15% 113 year demand for 9,863 new units will be repeated for the 2024 to 2033 time period (as opposed to continuing WLUA land – creating market pressures for other types of development in that area. If Coralville adopts a to grow at 1.58 percent per year). This is more consistent with typical long term demographic projections that policy of encouraging more single-family development within this area, the WLUA would compete favorably $25-35K $625 - $875 488 10% 49 15% 73 reflect slowing growth rates over time. with other Johnson County options and could likely increase its market share significantly. Under such a scenario, absorption could comfortably surpass a pace of 500 units per decade. $35-50K $875 - $1,000 533 10% 53 15% 80 From these trade area-wide estimates, the analysis proceeds by estimating low and high capture rates $50-75K $1,000+ 597 10% 60 15% 90 achievable within the WLUA. The resulting unit absorption estimates, by product type and price point, are Table 11. Single Family Attached Units (ownership townhomes, condominiums, rowhomes, etc.) $75-100K $1,000+ 350 10% 35 15% 53 termed “conservative” and “attainable” scenarios, to illustrate a reasonable range of what may occur over 10-year Study Area Capture of Trade Area Demand each future 10-year time span, given varying levels of execution quality, competitive activity and other market $100-150K $1,000+ 225 10% 22 15% 34 conditions. Annual Approx. Home Trade Area Est. Pct. Townhome/ Conservative Conservative Attainable Attainable Income Price Range For-Sale Townhome/ Condo Capture Rate Subject Capture Subject $150 -200K $1,000+ 47 10% 5 15% 7 For each summary table shown below, we assume that demand for new trade area household earning less Range Demand Condo Demand (within condo/ Capture Rate Capture over $200K $1,000+ 22 10% 2 15% 3 than $15,000 per year falls within the realm of affordable housing policy and is beyond the scope of this (income townhome) (units) (within (units.) analysis. Capture rates used in these estimates are ultimately professional judgments of the analyst, based $15K+) condo/ Totals 3,017 10% 302 15% 452 in part on historical performance of Coralville relative to the surrounding region, but also on characteristics of townhome) the WLUA in comparison with likely competitive sites falling within the trade area. $15-25K $100 to $150K 251 35% 88 10% 9 15% 13 Source: Leland Consulting Group $25-35K $150 to $200K 399 40% 160 10% 16 15% 24 $35-50K $200 to $250K 651 50% 325 10% 33 15% 49 Residential Demand Relative to WLUA Capacity $50-75K $250 to $350K 1,109 50% 555 10% 55 15% 83 Future land uses shown in the 2013 Houseal Lavigne planning documents include four different designations $75-100K $350 to $500K 1,050 40% 420 10% 42 15% 63 likely to indicate capacity for residential growth. These include Low, Medium, and High Density Residential areas and a Mixed Use classification. Table 12 shows the vacant developable acreages currently present in $100-150K $500K and up 1,274 30% 382 10% 38 15% 57 $150 -200K $500K and up 426 20% 85 10% 9 15% 13
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Market Analysis 44 Market Analysis
each of these future land use categories. Based on assumptions as to likely zoning and adjustments for net square feet – slightly higher than their estimate for Iowa City’s non-CBD office/retail inventory (4.1 million City. When the frame of reference is expanded to the whole retail trade area, this overall imbalance is developability2, we calculate the approximate capacity to support residential development. square feet). Cook Appraisal estimated that 6.89 percent of non-CBD Iowa City retail/office was vacant in brought to nearly zero (helping to justify the extent of the larger sized trade area). At this level, some store 2010, compared to 7.88 percent in Coralville/North Liberty retail and office space. Because the study did not categories show some “leakage” and some still enjoy a “pull factor.” Figure 13, below, show the various As currently conceived, the WLUA appears capable of accommodating just under 4,000 units in total. break out office and retail commercial land uses, it is difficult to draw conclusions about the market health leakage and pull factors across major retail categories (excluding vehicle and parts dealers). Approximately one half of this capacity falls within Medium Density Residential and more than one quarter from these figures. A 7 percent vacancy rate would indicate a somewhat over-supplied retail market (where would be within Mixed Use areas. Note that the 790 units of Low Density Residential capacity represents just “healthy” equilibrium vacancies tend to be closer to 5 percent). Figure 14. Existing Trade Area Leakage/Pull two decades of single family detached absorption at the “attainable” level. A windshield survey of retail properties in Coralville and Iowa City conducted by Leland Consulting Group in Table 13: Residential Development Capacity in the WLUA January of 2015, coupled with on-line searches of for-lease properties, found a marked scarcity of vacant Food & Beverage (grocery) -42 leakage retail sites, suggesting little or no surplus inventory in the market. Health & Personal Care -14 Mixed Use High Density Med. Density Low Density Total Misc. Store Retailers -10 Residential Residential Residential Retail Sales Per Capita 2013 Building Material, Garden Equip 1 45,000 Likely Zoning PUD R4 R3, R4 R1, R1B, R2 General Merchandise 6 Vacant Acres 146.8 4.1 198.8 188.1 537.8 40,000 Electronics & Appliance 7 Est. % Residential Parcels 40% 70% 70% 70% 35,000 Furniture & Home Furnishings 9 Est. du/a 20.0 20.0 14.0 6.0 30,000 Foodservice & Drinking Places 21 25,000 Est. Unit Capacity 1,174 58 1,948 790 3,970 Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book, Music 24 20,000 Clothing & Accessories pull 105 15,000 -$50 $0 $50 $100 $150 10,000 Millions 5,000 Retail 0 Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group Future WLUA retail projects will benefit from a number of advantages relative to competitive sites across the Pella Clive Ames Boone Carroll Marion Clinton Ankeny Keokuk Newton Altoona Waverly Waukee
retail trade area. Visibility and access will be excellent, especially near the existing interchange between I-80 Spencer Ottumwa Waterloo Indianola Johnston Dubuque Iowa City Coralville West Des… West Burlington Sioux City Muscatine Bettendorf Urbandale Davenport Oskaloosa Mason City Mason Fort Dodge Cedar Falls Cedar Storm Lake
and I-380, along existing and planned arterials, and adjacent to the planned Forevergreen Road interchange Moines Des North Liberty North State of Iowa of State Fort Madison Marshalltown Cedar Rapids Cedar with I-80. Demographic conditions are, and will be, outstanding as well with affluence, youth and growth in Bluffs Council The present analysis assumes that existing leakages (in grocery, health & personal care and miscellaneous nearby abundance. The proximity of Coral Ridge Mall and the surrounding big box retail developments is retail) can be reduced by 50 percent through recapture and that existing retail pull levels will be maintained, but not expanded through household growth. helpful from a clustering standpoint – the area is already seen as a retail “destination”. Estimating Demand However, the sheer volume of nearby existing retail, especially relative to the population just within Coralville, Demand for new retail space is determined by future retail spending potential of projected new households In the next step we consider how projected future household growth will expand the level of support for trade may be a limiting factor on the pace and scale of future retail development in the WLUA. Even at projected as well as by some recapturing of retail spending that is currently lost to nearby communities or areas area retail. As shown in Table 15, the current level of demand from trade area households is just over $900 2040 population, Johnson County is unlikely to be able to support more than one regional mall cluster the (referred to as “leakage” or “retail void”, illustrated in Figure 14). An additional adjustment is made to allow for million. At a growth rate of 1.6 percent annually, new households will bring an additional $152 million in size of Coral Ridge Mall. In other words, that mall and its adjacent major retail (such as Costco, Walmart and demand from space turnover and replacement of existing obsolete retail space. yearly retail spending by decade’s end. various smaller boxes) probably represents the single largest increment of growth that the Johnson County region will see in the foreseeable future. Also, to the extent that the market and Coralville’s planning policies This retail analysis assumes that customers for future WLUA retail space will be drawn from the retail trade Table 14. Retail Demand from Projected Household Growth (non-automotive categories) may shift over time to correct the current local imbalance between rooftops and retail, one would expect to area shown in Figure 3. Note that the trade area boundaries assume that Cedar Rapids rooftops, for the Regional Trade Area see a steady decline in the pace of future retail development. most part, will shop in Linn County and Iowa City rooftops south of University Heights Road will be served Current Est. HH Current Est. Sales Projected Year 10 Projected Growth in primarily by Iowa City retailers. The wide extent of the trade area to rural and semi-rural areas east and west Demand (ESRI) (ESRI) Trade Area Trade Area Demand Demand Supply Conditions of Coralville is a function of the lack of supply in those areas, with only Des Moines and Davenport as HH Growth competition for major “shoppers’ goods”. Rate The Iowa City/Coralville market is currently too small to warrant frequent or exhaustive analytical supply tracking by major commercial brokerages. As such, accurate data as to inventory, rental rates and An initial step in analyzing retail demand is to compare the spending power of the trade area population with Furniture and Home Furnishings $20,713,181 $30,014,567 1.6% $24,228,632 $3,515,451 occupancy is difficult to come by. A 2010 report by the Iowa City firm Cook Appraisal, using a direct survey the estimated retail sales occurring in that same area. For a given store type, if trade area resident spending Electronics and Appliance $29,855,448 $37,064,229 1.6% $34,922,528 $5,067,080 methodology, estimated that Coralville/North Liberty had a retail/office combined inventory of 4.4 million power is greater than trade area spending, then retail spending is assumed to be “leaking” to stores outside Building Material, Garden Equip $35,972,994 $37,236,878 1.6% $42,078,347 $6,105,353 the trade area. If trade area sales are higher than resident spending power, then trade area stores are said to Food and Beverage (grocery) $180,440,819 $138,758,825 1.6% $211,065,317 $30,624,498 2 be “pulling” retail spending in from residents outside the trade area. The Houseal Lavigne plan includes major arterials but not future local/minor streets (and also ignores other subsidiary land uses Health and Personal Care $72,815,591 $58,423,183 1.6% $85,173,886 $12,358,295 such as churches, minor parks, utilities, etc.). We assume that some portion of each designated land use area will be taken up by such uses – thus, although Low Density Residential has no other major land use types, it is assumed to have a “net” area for Across all store categories, the City of Coralville, itself, has an extremely high “pull” factor – consistent with Clothing and Accessories $56,920,431 $161,787,083 1.6% $66,580,993 $9,660,562 residential development of 70 percent of the total acreage. Also, because the breakout of land uses within Mixed Use areas is not its state-leading retail sales per capita ratio. In other words, its retailers generate much more in sales than Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book, Music $23,420,648 $47,338,141 1.6% $27,395,611 $3,974,963 pre-determined, we incorporate assumptions as to likely shares by land use type. would be expected from just Coralville residents, meaning that spending is being pulled in from outside the
45 Market Analysis Market Analysis
General Merchandise $184,144,374 $190,632,835 1.6% $215,397,441 $31,253,067 Total New Conservative 10-yr Attainable 10-yr Est. FAR 0.2 0.25 0.2 0.3 Misc. Store Retailers $32,476,043 $22,519,619 1.6% $37,987,892 $5,511,849 10-yr Subject Capture Conservative Subject Capture Attainable Foodservice and Drinking Places $113,270,975 $134,449,751 1.6% $132,495,377 $19,224,402 Demand Rate Capture (s.f.) Rate Capture (s.f.) (s.f.) Est. Retail Capacity (s.f.) 154,724 1,158,799 45,966 383,584 1,743,073 Excluded Categories (including $150,006,101 $171,645,022 1.6% $175,465,205 $25,459,104 cinema, prof./med. office, consumer banks, etc.) @ 20% of Furniture and Home Furnishings 13,984 25% 3,000 35% 5,000 included Electronics and Appliance 16,826 25% 4,000 35% 6,000 Totals $900,036,605 $1,029,870,133 $1,052,791,228 $152,754,623 Office Building Material, Garden Equip 20,027 25% 5,000 35% 7,000 Food and Beverage (grocery) 132,628 25% 33,000 35% 46,000 Supply Conditions Adding assumptions for estimated annual sales per square foot across categories, that level of increased Health and Personal Care 57,668 25% 14,000 35% 20,000 spending would support approximately 500,000 square feet of additional retail space. As with retail, there is little in the way of reliable commercial real estate market statistics for the Johnson Clothing and Accessories 38,085 25% 10,000 35% 13,000 County Market. See comments in the Retail section above for efforts on the part of Cook Appraisal LLC, to Table 15. Retail Demand from Leakage and Replacement (and in Total) Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book, Music 16,348 25% 4,000 35% 6,000 estimate the size and vacancy of the combined office/retail market for the area. As with retail, a windshield Regional Trade Area survey by Leland Consulting Group in January showed very little office space for lease in either Iowa City or General Merchandise 121,273 25% 30,000 35% 42,000 Coralville, suggesting a generally tight market with no evidence of major oversupply. In fact, ongoing and 10-yr New Plus Plus Est. Total New 10-yr recently completed construction in WLUA and vicinity appears to support the notion that current office market Misc. Store Retailers 47,748 25% 12,000 35% 17,000 Demand from Recapture- Obsolete s.f. Demand (s.f.) conditions are favorable. Household able Existing Replaced (1% in Foodservice and Drinking Places 59,409 25% 15,000 35% 21,000 Growth (s.f.) Leakage (s.f.) 10 yr) Excluded Categories (including 109,465 25% 27,000 35% 38,000 Estimating Demand Furniture and Home Furnishings 12,783 0 1,201 13,984 cinema, prof./med. office, consumer Demand for new employment space is derived from two primary sources: expansion of existing industry and Electronics and Appliance 15,591 0 1,235 16,826 banks, etc.) @ 20% of included the relocation of new companies into the market. Employment projections by industry classification at the state level are combined with current-county level estimates of employment as inputs to an office demand Building Material, Garden Equip 18,786 0 1,241 20,027 Totals 633,461 25% 157,000 35% 221,000 model for the Johnson County trade area. Initial estimates of penetration of office employment based on experience in similar markets to produce estimates of existing inventory by industry type, shown below. Food and Beverage (grocery) 76,561 52,102 3,965 132,628 Health and Personal Care 35,309 20,561 1,798 57,668 Source: Leland Consulting Group (with ESRI inputs) Table 17. Estimates of Currently Occupied Space by Industry Classification, Johnson County
Clothing and Accessories 32,202 0 5,883 38,085 2014 Pct. In Est. Office Est. Office Employment Office s.f. per Space 2014 Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book, Music 14,454 0 1,894 16,348 It is worth noting again that, while Coralville’s retail development to date has been exceptional, especially relative to its neighboring municipalities, the surge in store inventory due to Coral Ridge Mall and its Space Employee General Merchandise 113,648 0 7,625 121,273 surrounding big box cluster is not likely to be a repeatable event. Instead, future development will revert to being a function of the adage “retail follows rooftops.” That is, future Coralville retail development will depend Misc. Store Retailers 24,497 22,125 1,126 47,748 Natural Resources and Mining 13 20.0% 325 845 on the addition of new residents to the broad trade area it already serves. Furthermore, because Foodservice and Drinking Places 54,927 0 4,482 59,409 considerable residential capacity lies within the WLUA itself, Coralville will begin to share more of the burden Trade, Transportation, Utilities 13,368 10.0% 325 434,460 of supplying its own rooftops to the retail equation. Excluded Categories (including 101,836 0 7,629 109,465 Construction 2,891 5.0% 325 46,979 Manufacturing 5,406 5.0% 325 87,848 cinema, prof./med. office, Retail Demand Relative to WLUA Capacity consumer banks, etc.) @ 20% of Information 1,433 90.0% 325 419,153 included Following similar calculation to that used for residential capacity, the WLUA appears capable of accommodating approximately 1.7 million square feet of new retail development. Even at the attainable Financial Activities 1,546 90.0% 325 452,205 Furniture and Home Furnishings 500,595 94,788 38,078 633,461 absorption rate of 220,000 square feet per decade, it would take several decades to deplete the available Prof. and Business Services 7,446 80.0% 325 1,935,960 capacity for retail development. While there may be some strategic advantage to some degree of over-zoning Educational Services 11,112 5.0% 325 180,570 for higher value commercial uses (primarily to preserve locational flexibility), it appears that at least some Including some 300,000 additional square feet from re-captured leakage, discussed earlier, and a modest retail zoning could be comfortably be sacrificed for additional residential or other needed land use Health Care and Social Assistance 7,164 30.0% 325 698,490 amount of replaced obsolete space, the trade area should see total demand for some 635,000 square feet of designations. Leisure & Hospitality 6,084 5.0% 325 98,865 new retail space for each future 10-year period. Other Services 3,154 15.0% 325 153,758 Table 18: Retail Development Capacity in the WLUA The table below shows conservative (25%) and attainable (35%) capture rates applied to this total, resulting Government 2,937 40.0% 325 381,810 in a range of WLUA of absorption from 160,000 to 220,000 square feet per 10 year period. As with residential demand, these capture rates are estimates based on the consultant’s professional judgment, based on a Regional Corridor Neighborhood Mixed Use Total Commercial Commercial Commercial Total 62,554 4,890,941 wide array of locational and competitive factors. Source: Leland Consulting Group (with inputs from State of Iowa LMI and ESRI Table 16. Subject Property Retail Capture Potential Likely Zoning C-3 C-2 C-1 PUD 10-Year Conservative and Attainable Estimates Vacant Acres 25.4 152.0 7.5 146.8 Assuming a 1.3 percent sustained annual growth rate in overall employment (a blended rated based in part Est. % Retail Parcels 70% 70% 70% 20% on MPO projections for the county, state of Iowa Long Term Employment forecasts, and consultant adjustments) the Johnson County office trade area should add approximately 9,000 employees over the next
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Market Analysis 46 Market Analysis
10 years. Assuming differing levels of employment space (office, industrial, flex) needed across different Natural Resources and Mining 1,040 0.0% 1,040 0 Likely Zoning PUD, I-1, C-3 PUD, I-1 PUD PUD, I-1, I-2 industry categories, the analysis summarized in the table below reveals demand for almost 2.6 million square Trade, Transportation, Utilities 802,080 1.3% 909,967 107,887 Vacant Acres 283.7 0.1 146.8 15.7 feet of new employment space over this period. Construction 57,820 1.7% 68,436 10,616 Est. % R&D/Flex Parcels 10% 60% 10% 80% Est. FAR 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 With a conservative 20 percent capture rate, the subject could absorb almost 135,000 square feet over each Manufacturing 1,297,440 1.0% 1,433,181 135,741 10-year future period. With an attainable 30 percent capture rate the subject could absorb nearly 220,000 square feet each 10 years. Information 28,660 0.5% 30,126 1,466 Est. Flex/R&D Capacity 308,981 653 127,861 109,385 546,882 Financial Activities 30,920 1.4% 35,532 4,612 (s.f.) Table 18. Projected 10-yr Office Demand by Industry, Johnson County Prof. and Business Services 446,760 1.7% 528,791 82,031 Est. Office Est. Annual Est. Office Est. New Space 2014 Growth Space 2024 Office Educational Services 222,240 1.2% 250,396 28,156 Rate Space Health Care Svcs. 143,280 1.4% 164,651 21,371 Demand (s.f.) Leisure & Hospitality 0 1.3% 0 0 Lodging Other Services 252,320 1.3% 286,259 33,939 Despite its smaller size relative to Iowa City, Coralville has come to have the lion’s share of hotel properties Government 176,220 1.1% 196,592 20,372 Natural Resources and Mining 845 0.0% 845 0 within the County. Johnson County currently has approximately 2,400 hotel rooms, of which nearly 1,700 are in Coralville, as shown in the table below. Trade, Transportation, Utilities 434,460 1.3% 492,899 58,439 Total 3,458,780 1.30% 3,904,972 446,192 Construction 46,979 1.7% 55,605 8,626
Manufacturing 87,848 1.0% 97,038 9,191 Source: Leland Consulting Group (with inputs from ESRI, State of Iowa LMI and CBRE) Information 419,153 0.5% 440,588 21,436
Financial Activities 452,205 1.4% 519,655 67,450
Prof. and Business Services 1,935,960 1.7% 2,291,426 355,466 Office and R&D/Flex Demand Relative to WLUA Capacity Educational Services 180,570 1.2% 203,447 22,877 Following similar calculation to that used for residential and retail capacity, the WLUA appears capable of Health Care Svcs. 698,490 1.4% 802,675 104,185 accommodating approximately 2.7 million square feet of new office development but just over 0.5 million square feet of R&D/flex development. Thus while some six or more decades of office capacity exists within Leisure & Hospitality 98,865 1.3% 112,163 13,298 the WLUA, R&D capacity could be exhausted shortly after 10 years, under currently designated future land Other Services 153,758 1.3% 174,439 20,682 uses.
Government 381,810 1.1% 425,950 44,140 Table 19: WLUA Office and R&D/Flex Land Capacity
Office Capacity Total 4,890,941 1.30% 5,616,731 725,789 Source: Leland Consulting Group (with inputs from ESRI, State of Iowa LMI and CBRE) Corp. Campus Research Park Mixed Use Total Prof. Office
Estimating demand for R&D/Flex space follows a similar calculation, except that for each industry category, a Likely Zoning PUD, I-1, C-3 PUD, I-1 PUD penetration rate for R&D space is used (that is, an estimation of the percent of employees in that industry that will work in R&D or flex space). As summarized in Table 21, nearly 500,000 s.f. of new R&D/flex space Vacant Acres 283.7 0.1 146.8 could be absorbed countywide over the coming decade. At a capture rate range of 30 to 40 percent (even Est. % Office Parcels 80% 20% 20% more aggressive that for office space, given the already strong bio/tech presence in the WLUA vicinity) the study area could absorb between 135,000 and 180,000 square feet per decade. Est. FAR 0.25 0.25 0.25
Est. Office Capacity (s.f.) 2,471,852 218 319,654 2,791,723 Table 21. Projected 10-yr R&D/Flex Demand by Industry, Johnson County
Est. Est. Est. Est. New R&D, Flex, Light Industrial Capacity R&D/Flex Annual R&D/Flex R&D/Flex Space 2014 Growth Space 2024 Space Rate Demand (s.f.) Corp. Campus Research Park Mixed Use Industrial Total Prof. Office
47 Market Analysis Market Analysis
Table 20. Trade Area Hotel Room Supply Based on these projections, at a range of capture rates from 20 to 30 percent, the WLUA could absorb approximately 95 to 133 hotel rooms per decade of development. Activity across other land uses, especially Hotel City Rooms office, destination retail and entertainment/recreation, will help to stimulate faster lodging absorption. Coralville Marriott Hotel Coralville 286 Table 21. Lodging Demand Estimates Sheraton Iowa City IC 234 Lodging Segment Trade Area Existing Room Grows as a Trade Area 10-Year New Est. Subject Est. Subject Heartland Inn Coralville 169 Share of Equivalents by function of… Annual Room Capture Rate Room Room-Nights Segment Growth Rate Demand Capture Hampton Inn Coralville 115 Baymont Inn & Suites Coralville 103 Business Travel 30% 731 Employment 1.3% 101
Motel 6 Coralville 103 Convention/Event 50% 1,218 Avg. of 1.5% 196 Employment & Residence Inn Coralville 100 Population Holiday Inn Coralville 96 Vacation/Personal 20% 487 Population 1.6% 84 Homewood Suites by Hilton Coralville 95 Hampton Inn IC 93 Clarion Highlander Hotel IC 90 2,436 380 25% - 35% 95 - 133 Best Western Canterberry Inn IC 90 Source: Leland Consulting Group, with inputs from Iowa Department of Revenue and ESRI & Suites Super 8 Coralville 84 Comfort Suites Coralville 81 Travelodge Iowa City IC 80 Holiday Inn Express Coralville 80 Appendix: Strategic Development Recommendations AmericInn Coralville 76 Suburban Extended Stay Coralville 74 The attached tabloid matrix shows strategic recommendations for WLUA by land use type. Column entries for each land use type show the following: Sleep Inn North Liberty 72 Fairfield Inn by Marriott Coralville 63 x Development quantities (residential units, commercial square feet, or rooms of lodging), at build out, including assumed densities and total required parcel acres Super 7 Motel Coralville 60 x Pace of absorption per decade hotelVetro IC 56 Quality Inn Coralville 56 x Reference images with examples of likely/possible product appearance Country Inn & Suites Coralville 48 x Notes on relation to other land uses
Alexis Park Inn IC 32 x Notes/recommendations on WLUA location Total 2,436 x Keys to success Source: Leland Consulting Group, based on Assessor’s records and other available on-line sources x Risk Factors/Notes To compute projected growth in demand, we estimate the percent of current demand made up of each of x Competitive Position of WLUA in relation to trade area and regional three traveler segments: business, convention/group, and vacation/personal travelers. Whereas downtown would have a much high proportion of convention/event stays, we estimate the west suburbs to be approximately one-half business travelers, 20 percent convention/event and 30 percent vacation/personal/family. The former is expected to grow in demand in proportion to employment growth, while the latter in response to increased population. Group travel for events and conventions is assumed to grow at a blended rate. For these long term projections, we further assume that current hotel supply is in rough equilibrium (or at least that there is not an excess of supply in the market).
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines Market Analysis 48
Appendix Bibliography
Image Sources
Page Location Image Description Source Page Location Image Description Source Cover Rendered Axonomic Aerial Photograph Confluence. February 27, 2015 15 Bottom Middle Mixed Use Multi Family - Mist http://www.loefflerconstruction.com/project-gal- lery-multifamily-mist.html 1 Rendered Axonomic Aerial Photograph Confluence. February 27, 2015 15 Top Right Entry Level Apartments http://www.solexarchitecture.com/content/File/resi- 2 Timeline Confluence. March 2, 2015 dential/parkside-grande/IMG_3608.jpg
5 Top Woodland Stream (Existing Conditions) Confluence. December 12, 2015 15 Bottom Right Entry Level Duplex http://www.thompsonhillhomesinc.com/Duplex%20 001.jpg 5 Bottom Agricultural Fields (Existing Conditions) Confluence. December 12, 2015 16 Top Left Paved Trail in Forest http://www.corekinteam.com/agent_files/images_ 6 Top Left Adopted Community Plan by Houseal Lavigne Houseal Lavigne Assoc. March 2014 woodlands/trails.jpg 6 Bottom Left Public Input Meeting Confluence. January 21, 2015 16 Bottom Left Granular Trail in Prairie http://cdn.bozemannet.com/images/con- tent/14263_8929_Bozeman_Hiking_Trails_md.jpg 6 Top Right Site Inventory with Property Owner Confluence. December 12, 2015 16 Top Middle Retention Pond and Trail http://riparia.ca/wp-content/up- 6 Bottom Middle Property Ownership Map with Land Use Overlay Confluence. January 19, 2015 oads/2011/01/04Edgemont-3185.jpg 6 Bottom Right SWOT Analysis Board Confluence. February 4, 2015 16 Bottom Middle Klyde Warren Park http://northtexas.uli.org/news/klyde-warren-park-se- lected-winner-2014-uli-urban-open-space-award/ 9 City Project Team Meeting Confluence. January, 14, 2015 16 Top Right Traditional State Park http://www.seviervilleparksandrec.com/images/ 10 Left Tour of Property with Owner Confluence. January 2, 2015 Parks/2012_0327photoscamera0241.JPG 10 Right Steering Committee Bus Tour Confluence. December 3, 2014 16 Bottom Right Traditional Band Shell Amphitheater http://www.red-wing.org/centralparkjohnrichpark.html 13 Turning Point “Clickers” Confluence. March 27, 2013 17 Top Left High-end Mixed Use http://www.ryancompanies.com/upload/GroveRe- tial-Rtchd-Lg.jpg 14 Public Input Meeting #1 Confluence. January 21, 2015 17 Bottom Left Unique Mixed Use http://gramor.com/lease-property/lake-view-village/ 15 Top Left Single Family Home - Wood Shingle Siding http://media.aaronklein.com/wp-content/up- loads/2009/04/house4.jpg 17 Middle High Quality Strip Retail http://x.lnimg.com/photo/poster_1920/25589ba6a- 17145ca888bb53f9df46784.jpg 15 Bottom Left Single Family Home - Brick Siding http://patch.com/illinois/arlingtonheights/ new-construction-homes-sale-arling- 17 Top Right Contemporary Big Box Retail http://americanmodernamerican.blogspot. ton-heights-illinois-0 com/2010_07_01_archive.html
15 Top Middle Mixed Use Multi Family - Mixed Use Brick http://www.bkvgroup.com/projects/de- 17 Bottom Right Traditional Big Box Retail http://www.inquisitr.com/wp-content/up- tail-multi-family-housing.php?recordID=6000 loads/2013/02/Blackberry-losses-after-Home-De- pot-switches-to-iPhone.jpg
iii Page Location Image Description Source Page Location Image Description Source 18 Top Left Tall Grass Corporate Campus http://architizer.com/projects/centra-at-metropark/ 20 Top Middle Downtown Sioux Falls Wayfinding Confluence. September 27, 2010 http://www.benzresourcegroup.com/wp-content/ 20 Bottom Middle Coralville Wall Signage https://www.google.com/maps/@41.695522,- 18 Bottom Left Modern High-End Multi-Story uploads/2011/01/ns16420-a-night-ext1-modified_ 91.606513,3a,45.1y,40.31h,90.54t/ small.jpg data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1sHJuIkvXeZuTmsnZ_ RGa42A!2e0 18 Top Middle High-End Multi-Story Corporate http://www.commercial-glass.com/work.php 20 Top Right Marion Roundabout Art http://www.cityrevealed.com/pages/articles/july12/ http://www.jrjarch.com/images/public/projects/Aber- cornsculpt.html 18 Bottom Middle Single Story Office deen-1.jpg 21 Project Limits Confluence. January 21, 2015 http://coolerdesign.com/images/portfolio/4-Medical_ 18 Top Right Single Story Low-End Office (1) Office_Building/Single-Story/Cooler_Design-3.jpg 22 Property Ownership Map (Overall) Confluence. January 21, 2015 23 Property Ownership Map (SW) Confluence. January 21, 2015 18 Bottom Right Single Story Low-End Office (2) http://exsuitesagave.com/wp-content/up- loads/2012/12/cropped-Agave-building-for-website. 24 Property Ownership Map (SE) Confluence. January 21, 2015 jpg 25 Adopted Land Use Plan Houseal Lavigne Assoc. March 2014 19 Top Left Boulevard and Lighting http://www.hkgi.com/projects-streetscape-design-ex- celsior-blvd.php 26 Adopted Transportation Plan Houseal Lavigne Assoc. March 2014 19 Bottom Left Ft. Collins Downtown Pedestrian Mall Confluence. August, 26 2010 27 Adopted Shared Use Pathways Plan Houseal Lavigne Assoc. March 2014 19 Top Middle Pedestrian-centric amenities http://www.casalaguna.com/content/57/down- 28 Adopted Natural Resources Plan Houseal Lavigne Assoc. March 2014 town_570x350.jpg 29 Existing Site Analysis Board Confluence. January 21, 2015 19 Bottom Middle Residential speed control amenities http://www.maxineschnitzer.com/index.php#mi=2&pt =1&pi=10000&s=15&p=4&a=0&at=0 30 Adopted Land Use Plan/Property Confluence. January 21, 2015 Ownership Overlay 19 Top Right Overlapping pedestrian and vehicular http://www.fredweberinc.com/services/construction/ traffic projects/ 31 Photo Board (1) Confluence. January 21, 2015 32 Photo Board (2) Confluence. January 21, 2015 20 Top Left Iowa River Landing Signage http://www.lkrinfo.com/communities/coralville 33 Photo Board (3) Confluence. January 21, 2015 20 Bottom Left Wandemere Signage https://www.pinterest.com/ pin/487655465873648250/ 34 Photo Board (4) Confluence. January 21, 2015 35-48 Market Analysis Leland Associates, March 3, 2015
2015 Coralville West Land Use Master Plan and Design Guidelines iv