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May01/2021 Kentucky Derby Wager Guide Churchill

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May01/2021 Kentucky Derby Wager Guide Churchill 1/ST BET // WAGER GUIDE KENTUCKY DERBY MAY01/2021 CHURCHILL DOWNS KENTUCKY DERBY 147 POST POSITIONS O BESOS (20/1) KNOWN AGENDA (6/1) Owner: Bernard Racing, Team Owner: St. Elias Stable Tagg Racing, Terry Stephens & 1 Trainer: Todd Pletcher 6 West Point Thoroughbreds Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Greg Foley Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza LIKE THE KING (50/1) MANDALOUN (15/1) Owner: M Racing Group Owner: Juddmonte 2 Trainer: Wesley Ward 7 Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Jockey: Florent Geroux BROOKLYN STRONG MEDINA SPIRIT (15/1) (50/1) Owner: Zedan Racing Stables Owner: Mark Schwartz Trainer: Bob Baffert 3 Trainer: Daniel Velazquez 8 Jockey: John Velazquez Jockey: Umberto Rispoli KEEPMEINMIND (50/1) Owner: Cypress Creek, HOT ROD CHARLIE (8/1) Owner: Roadrunner Racing, Spendthrift Farm & Boat Racing & William Strauss Arnold Bennewith 4 9 Trainer: Doug O’Neill Trainer: Robertino Diodoro Jockey: Flavien Prat Jockey: David Cohen MIDNIGHT BOURBON SAINTHOOD (50/1) Owner: WinStar Farm & CHC (20/1) Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds Trainer: Todd Pletcher 5 10 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Corey Lanerie Jockey: Mike Smith Odds listed are Churchill Downs morning line odds. 1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 2 KENTUCKY DERBY 147 POST POSITIONS DYNAMIC ONE (20/1) KING FURY (20/1) Owner: Repole Stable, Phipps Owner: Fern Circle Stables & Stable & St. Elias Stable Three Chimneys Farm 11 Trainer: Todd Pletcher 16 Trainer: Ken McPeek Jockey: Jose Ortiz Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. HIGHLY MOTIVATED HELIUM (50/1) Owner: D J Stable (10/1) 12 Trainer: Mark Casse 17 Owner: Klaravich Stables Jockey: Julien Leparoux Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Javier Castellano SUPER STOCK (30/1) HIDDEN STASH (50/1) Owner: Erv Woolsey & Owner: BBN Racing Keith Asmussen Trainer: Victoria Oliver 13 18 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. ESSENTIAL QUALITY SOUP AND SANDWICH (2/1) (30/1) Owner: Godolphin Owner: Live Oak Plantation 14 Trainer: Brad Cox 19 Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Luis Saez Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione ROCK YOUR WORLD (5/1) BOURBONIC (30/1) Owner: Hronis Racing & Owner: Calumet Farm 15 Talla Racing 20 Trainer: Todd Pletcher Trainer: John Sadler Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche Jockey: Joel Rosario Odds listed are Churchill Downs morning line odds. 1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 3 1/ST BET // BET THE KENTUCKY DERBY $10 CREDIT+$500 BONUS • FAST, EASY WAGERING • AI PICKS + CUSTOMIZE YOUR HANDICAPPING • HD VIDEO & REPLAYS SIGN UP PROMO CODE: SPORTOFKINGS THE OFFICIAL APP OF: PREAKNESS // SANTA ANITA PARK // GULFSTREAM PARK PIMLICO // GOLDEN GATE FIELDS // LAUREL PARK // PEGASUS WORLD CUP Promotional offer valid through 12/31/2021. Open to new 1/ST signups only. Customer will receive $10 wagering credit after signup. Additional wagering credits will be deposited in $10 increments for every $100 wagered within 30 days of sign up. To qualify for full $500 wagering credit, new account holders must wager $5,000 within 30 calendar days of sign up. Wagers that are refunded or cancelled will not be counted as eligible wa- gers. Promotional wagering credits will be deposited by 1/ST into your account within five business days of reaching each $10 increment. Wagering credits are different from cash, and cannot be transferred, redeemed or withdrawn. Unused wagering credits will be withdrawn 30 days after they are deposited. Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, IN, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with 1/ST BET and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. Cannot be combined with any other offer. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700. MEET THE 2021 DERBY CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Unbeaten in five career starts, this son of Tapit is the defending Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and reigning 2-year-old champ. He’s also the current consensus pick as top 3-year-old. This Brad Cox-trained colt has done everything right in two 2021 starts. He romped home in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park and then out-fought a game, pace scenario- aided Highly Motivated at Keeneland to win the Grade 2 Blue Grass by a neck. He races a bit off the pace early, but can quickly reach contention when prompted. He has won by as much as four and one-quarter lengths and by as little as a neck. Last September, he broke his maiden first time out going six furlongs at Churchill Downs, so you know he likes the track. Jockey Luis Saez seeks redemption aboard this colt for the disappointment and criticism the rider endured following the disqualification of his mount Maximum Security from first to 17th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Trainer Brad Cox won last season’s Eclipse Award as the nation’s top trainer. HOT ROD CHARLIE: Ever since stretching out to two turns on the main track and adding blinkers, this son of Preakness winner Oxbow has been a tiger. His first race under those particular circumstances came in the fourth start of his career and resulted in a one-mile maiden score at Santa Anita in October. He then finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by a mere neck to the probable Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality at gigantic 94-1 odds. ‘Charlie began 2021 in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita by finishing third-best by a neck in a desperate photo involving Medina Spirt. Shipped to Louisiana for that state’s Derby, Hot Rod Charlie dominated throughout to win by two lengths. Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill appears to have this fellow hitting on all cylinders as May 1 fast approaches. SUPER STOCK: He burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a romping score in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. It was quite a turnaround for the son of Dialed In. At 12-1 odds, he roared home to a more than two-length victory while looking more like a 4-5 shot under Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen’s main rider Ricardo Santana. A half-length defeat by eventual Grade 3 Lexington winner King Fury in the Street Sense was this colt’s previous claim to fame last year, and it came over the Churchill Downs strip. Of note is that one of his third-place finishes at 2 came nearly five lengths behind Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. ROCK YOUR WORLD: Previously unbeaten in a pair of impressive turf races – including a maiden and stakes victory – this son of Candy Ride upset heavily favored Medina Spirit with a wire-to-wire tally in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Trainer John Sadler was not surprised at the outcome, as he anticipated that this colt possessed mad skills. A March 28 bullet, five-furlong workout in :59 1/5 (best-of-76) enhanced confidence in the colt and he delivered the Grade 1 victory. Detractors will point to Sadler’s lackluster record when racing out of town in graded stakes, but the conditioner saddled Accelerate to win the 2018 BC Classic at Churchill Downs—home of the Kentucky Derby. Besides the added distance, Rock Your World is expected to face more early pressure in the Derby than he did in the Arcadia version. How he reacts to that will decide where he finishes in the Run for the Roses. He raced a bit greenly in the SA Derby stretch, changing leads back and forth, but it didn’t matter. He was that good. Interesting note: the breeders of Rock Your World are Hall of Fame trainer Ron McAnally and his wife, Debbie. 1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 5 MEET THE 2021 DERBY CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD KNOWN AGENDA: Gulfstream Park Championship Meet top trainer Todd Pletcher and leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. combined skills with Known Agenda to win the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby. No surprise there. What was a bit surprising, though, were the juicy, nearly 9/2 odds his backers enjoyed. Fresh off an 11-length allowance tally while sporting a new set of blinkers, this son of Curlin got a bit lost in the Florida Derby wagering behind favored Greatest Honour. Perhaps, a field-splitting, well-beaten fifth as favorite in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby had left a poor taste in collective horseplayers’ mouths. Worse than third only once in six starts, Known Agenda boasts just two wins—a maiden and the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Others have much better resumes than this guy, but he’s hot right now for a trainer destined to enter the Hall of Fame in a few months and already with a couple of Derby trophies. MEDINA SPIRIT: Medina Spirit sent backers home with empty pockets following a disappointing runner-up performance to Rock Your World as the less-than-even-money favorite in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. It was a perplexing April for trainer Bob Baffert as Concert Tour also came up short at odds-on in the Arkansas Derby. Medina Spirit’s only two previous losses in four starts had come against stablemate Life is Good, who has been sidelined to injury. This guy has some early pace, but is more of a ‘grinder’ than a speedster. While he’s never been worse than second in five starts, he’ll need to pick up his game to win the Kentucky Derby. He’s steady and trained by six- time Derby winner Baffert, who seeks a record No. 7. HIGHLY MOTIVATED: Off a slightly troubled, close third as favorite in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct, trainer Chad Brown boldly shipped this son of Into Mischief to Keeneland and a head-on collision with top-ranked soph Essential Quality in the Grade 2 Blue Grass.
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