New Initiatives for Solving the Northern Territories Issue between Japan and Russia: An Inspiration from the Åland Islands Conference Mariehamn/Åland, 18-20 August 2006 Organized by Kimie Hara & Masako Ikegami Proceedings Edited by Kimie Hara and Geoffrey Jukes Issues & Insights Vol. 7- No. 4 April 2007 Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, the Pacific Forum CSIS (www.pacforum.org) operates as the autonomous Asia-Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic, business, and oceans policy issues through analysis and dialogue undertaken with the region’s leaders in the academic, government, and corporate areas. Founded in 1975, it collaborates with a broad network of research institutes from around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating project findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and members of the public throughout the region. Table of Contents Page Foreword v By Kimie Hara The Åland Settlement as a Resolution Model for Asia-Pacific Regional Conflicts? Considering the “Nitobe Settlement” for the “Northern Territories” Problem as a Case Study 1 By Kimie Hara The Autonomy of Åland and Conflict Resolution 15 By Elisabeth Nauclér The Northern Territories Issue Japanese-Russian Relations and Concerns in Japan 25 By Hiroshi Kimura The Territorial dispute between Japan and Russia The “Two-island Solution” and Prospects for Putin’s Last Years as President 39 By Konstantin Sarkisov Can the Southern Kurils be Demilitarised? 51 By Geoffrey Jukes Cold War in East Asia and the “Northern Territories Problem” 73 By Nobuo Shimotomai The Consequences of the Russo-Japanese War in East Asia: The Portsmouth Conference and the Establishment of a New World Order 87 By Tosh Minohara The Territorial Issue Between Japan and Russia Inspiration From The Åland Islands Experience 101 By Markku Heiskanen Regional Confidence in Åland and NorthernTerritories A Sociologist’s View (Power Point Slides) 109 By Masako Ikegami Northern Territories: Searching for a Solution 111 By Ralph A. Cossa Appendices: Appendix A: Conference Agenda 115 Appendix B: List of Participants 119 iii iv Foreword The territorial dispute between Japan and Russia, the so-called “Northern Territories”/ Southern Kuriles problem, is one of the major “unresolved problems” since World War II in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan and the USSR restored diplomatic relations in 1956, but failed to sign a peace treaty because of this territorial problem. Even after the passage of over 60 years after the war, and over 15 years after Japan’s negotiating counterpart changed from the USSR to Russia, the bilateral negotiations are still impassé. In the year 2006, exactly a half century after the restoration of their diplomatic relations, a three-day conference, New Initiatives for Solving the Northern Territories Problem between Japan and Russia: an Inspiration from the Åland Model”, was held in Mariehamn, Åland (Finland). The focus of this conference was on employing the Åland experience as inspiration for seeking resolutions for this problem. Nineteen people, including government officials, scholars and military experts, attended the event. This conference was held as a part of a larger project that seeks to analyze the Åland settlement as a resolution model for the major Asia-Pacific regional conflicts, particularly those derived from the post-war disposition of Japan. The project originally started from a brain-storming discussion among three individuals – Ms. Fumiko Halloran, a well-known writer in Japan, Mr. James Kelly, then President of the Pacific Forum, CSIS, and myself, then on sabbatical leave at the East-West Center in Honolulu in 2000. (In 2001 Mr. Kelly was appointed US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.) This project began after that meeting, and the relevant research has been funded by the Matsushita International Foundation and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. The idea of holding a conference in Åland came up when Professor Masako Ikegami and I met, again in Honolulu, in summer 2005. Professor Ikegami was then involved in a project comparing Åland and Okinawa, led by Professor Toshiaki Furuki of Chuo University, while I was working on this project as a single-authored book. Later, in April 2006, when I arrived at Stockholm for my research, it became clear that the project could be developed into a collaborative one, thanks to a Japan Foundation grant applied through Stockholm University. The Åland conference was the fruit of joint efforts by various individuals and institutions. Professor Ikegami was the liaison with the Japan Foundation, through the Japanese Embassy in Stockholm, and with the Åland Government through Ms. Elisabeth Naucler, Director of its Administration. Ms. Naucler arranged the entire day-one on-site briefing program on the Åland Islands, as well as providing the conference venue in the Åland Government building. Furthermore, the conference was blessed with contributions by distinguished participants from Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Japan, Russia, v Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States – and Åland. Mr. Ralph Cossa, one of the conference participants, kindly offered a venue to post the conference proceedings on the website of the Pacific Forum, CSIS. Professor Geoffrey Jukes has been generously helping the project, by making useful suggestions, mobilizing some participants for the conference, and co-editing this volume. I had the pleasure of sharing the project idea, and general preparation of the conference and the proceedings, in consultation with Professors Ikegami and Jukes, and with the excellent assistance of Mr. Scott Harrison, a graduate student at the University of Waterloo and CIGI Balsillie Fellow. In addition to the Japan Foundation, the Åland conference was funded by a research grant from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, as well as receiving kind support from the Åland Government, the Centre for Pacific Asia Studies (CPAS) at Stockholm University in Sweden, the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) and the East Asian Studies Centre at Renison, University of Waterloo in Canada. Kimie Hara Waterloo, Ontario, Canada vi The Åland Settlement as a Resolution Model for Asia-Pacific Regional Conflicts? Considering the “Nitobe Settlement” for the “Northern Territories” Problem as a Case Study By Kimie Hara Contrary to the post-Cold War globalization discourse, which tends to posit a de- territorialized and borderless world, the issues of border demarcation and territorial sovereignty, which are classical components of international relations, continue to provide sources of conflict and remain significant problems of international concern. Even though emphasis in international relations shifts from time to time, it does not necessarily diminish the residual sources of confrontation. Yet, while the source of confrontation remains unchanged, so does the possibility of its resurgence. Many regional conflicts are yet to be resolved in various parts of the world, whereas there may be some lessons to be learned from historical precedents of conflict resolution. This introductory paper proposes examination of the Åland settlement in northern Europe, as a conflict resolution model for major regional conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly those derived from the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty with Japan. Paying attention to their common origin, it suggests considering solution of these regional problems in a multilateral framework. The paper primarily discusses, as a case study, the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia, the so-called “Northern Territories”/Southern Kuriles problem. In dealing with the Åland settlement, it pays special attention to Japan’s involvement in the League of Nations, particularly that of Inazo Nitobe, as the case may be referenced as a successful precedent for Japanese diplomacy. From Bilateralism back to Multilateralism: The San Francisco Peace Treaty and Regional Conflicts in the Asia-Pacific1 After the Second World War, many regional conflicts emerged in the Asia-Pacific region, such as the “Northern Territories”/Southern Kuriles, Takeshima/Tokdo, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and the Spratly/Nansha Islands sovereignty disputes, the divided Korean Peninsula, the cross-Taiwan Strait problem, and the Okinawa problem, pivoting on the large US military presence in the region. These are divisive issues, that continue to stir conflict throughout the region. Although these problems tend to be treated 1 For details on the San Francisco Peace Treaty and regional conflicts in the Asia-Pacific, see Kimie Hara, Cold War Frontiers in the Asia-Pacific: Divided Territories in the San Francisco System, Routledge, 2007; Sanfuranshisuko heiwajoyaku no moten: ajiataiheiyo chiiki no reisen to “sengo mikaiketsu no shomondai”, Keisui-sha, 2005. 1 separately or as unrelated, they all share an important common foundation in the post-war territorial disposition of Japan, particularly the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty. Vast territories, ranging from the Kurile Islands to Antarctica, and from Micronesia to the Spratlys, were disposed of in the Peace Treaty. However, neither their final devolution nor their precise limits were specified, and this left seeds of various “unresolved problems” in the region. (Table 1 shows the nexus between the San Francisco Peace