Focus on Change: a Closer Look at Climate Change Impacts in the Northeast
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Focus on Change: A Closer Look at Climate Change Impacts in the Northeast A synthesis of the June 27, 2012 conference held at Pace’s Schimmel Theater in downtown Manhattan This synthesis has been drafted by the staff of the Pace Energy and Climate Center and is not a word-for-word transcript of the event. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of Pace and the text should not be used for quotations or direct attribution to speakers without the speaker's permission. What’s at Stake? Bill McKibben & 350.org The sprawling nature of the environmental movement is a bright light to emphasize before focusing on the grimmer stuff. People of all kinds are trying to do something about climate change, the greatest problem that we have ever faced. CNN has called the climate movement the “most widespread political activity in the history of the planet.” 350.org has organized 20,000 rallies in 192 countries, every nation save North Korea. Still, the fight against climate change is being lost. The level of carbon in the atmosphere is increasing, and worse, the temperature is increasing. Just this spring, researchers in the Arctic recorded CO2 concentrations of more than 400 parts per million (ppm), which is well above the 350 ppm that scientists have determined is the highest safe CO2 concentration and from which 350.org takes its name. Within 18 months, the rest of the world will catch up to the Arctic CO2 concentration, which is the highest level recorded in 800,000 years. From these sobering statistics we take renewed determination. We have warmed the air, acidified the oceans, and changed the basic hydrology of the planet. The atmosphere is more than four percent wetter than it was forty years ago, which is probably the best indicator that our long era of stable climate has ended. Because of negative anthropomorphic climate effects, we have loaded the dice for droughts, heat waves, and other catastrophic weather effects, not just in the United States, but across the world. Almost fittingly, some of the worst effects have been felt in the American southwest, home of Oklahoma’s infamous climate denier James Inhofe. Such recent severe climatic events provide ample evidence of God reminding us that this is not what a hoax feels like. Meanwhile, the atmospheric water is coming down in extreme events, flooding twenty million people out of their homes in Pakistan, submerging Thailand’s capital and economy to the equivalent of 18% of the nation’s GDP, and requiring emergency levee repair to save entire cities from ruin. Rainfall records are falling not by tiny margins, but by 25% or 30%. Rain currently falls on a different planet than those previous records were set on. Here are a few points on climate change we should all bear in mind: A) An ethical dilemma hangs over us because the most damage occurs in the nations that least created the problem of climate change; B) We are only at the beginning of the damaging effects of climate change, experienced at one degree of temperature increases. Unless we act quickly to curtail emissions, the effects will get much, much worse, beyond the certain degradation that is to come on account of the damage that we already have done, but the consequences of which we have not yet felt; C) Geology can’t save us. We have been speculating for oil, gas, and coal to absurd depths across the globe. The earth has been ripped apart, which has created our current problem; D) We need to get tougher, and we need a movement. Movements are hard to build, forged by trial and error, built along the way, but they can create differences. Responding to NASA’s foremost climatologist’s assertion that burning the oil in the Canadian tar sands would prove “game over for our climate,” 350.org encouraged a civil disobedience movement to stop the 1 Keystone pipeline. People of all types came to Washington to get arrested on behalf of the climate, and more than 1,200 protesters were arrested in a very civil manner. This one movement has created at least a temporary victory, which is the only kind environmentalists ever win, but we demonstrated the will to take on this large money machine. E) Challenging one pipeline at a time isn’t sustainable and it isn’t enough. Consequently, 350.org is starting a campaign to support Congressional efforts to pull away the fossil fuel industry’s $113 billion in federal subsidies over the next decade. Revoking these subsidies is a bi-partisan issue of agreement that doesn’t even address the subject of fossil fuel producers not paying for carbon emissions… but it is a start. F) The most important message is to remind people that demanding a healthy planet is not radical. It is radical to get up every day, go to work, and enrich yourself by changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere. We must fight against labeling environmental concerns as radical. We may not win this fight, but we will fight it, shoulder to shoulder. 2 From a Thousand Feet: Art DeGaetano, Director, Northeast Regional Climate Center & Professor, Cornell University Responding to Franz Litz’s probing Inside the Actor’s Studio-style questioning, Art begins by announcing that his favorite color is green, he prefers beer over wine, and he referees soccer. The steps on the stairs of a global temperature over time graph are leading up, more than half a degree Celsius over the past decade. There are variations on the staircase, but the clear indication is that global temperatures are increasing, and human activity is the source. The Northeast shows greater variability, but follows the escalating pattern of global temperature changes. Canada’s temperature changes have all been increases. Framing the true impacts of climate change requires looking past averages to focusing on extremes. Among selected cities in the Northeast and Canada, the incidence of days above 90 degrees has steadily increased over the past several decades. Extreme impacts are not limited to temperature, but also are linked to precipitation. Though average precipitation has increased as a whole in the Northeast and Canada, a precipitation dichotomy has formed in the Northeast: increased in the winter, and decreased during summer. The severity of precipitation (days with more than one inch of rainfall) has nearly doubled in the past decade, with the effects increasing with northern latitude. This phenomenon can be seen in the case of the once-in-a lifetime storm – in the current climate, a 100-year storm is predicted to occur every 66 years. The atmosphere is getting moister, and it has been released in heavier rainfall events. Models for temperature changes consistently show a steady increase within a relatively narrow range; similar models for precipitation changes yield much larger variations and predictions. However, increases in both temperature and precipitation by the end of the century are more predictable in the Northeast. Precipitation will increase as a whole, but summer months are just as likely to see droughts as to see heavy rains. The largest increases will be felt farther north and away from coast (7˚F and 10”), though will still be easily felt along the coast (5˚F and 4”). Cold extremes (days below 10˚F) will be lessened considerably in the northern Northeast, and warm extremes (days above 95˚F) will increase considerably in the southern Northeast. Climate change impacts will continue predictably over the next several decades due to climatic inertia. Under nearly all scenarios, the effects through approximately 2050 are very similar. The real difference we can make now will be slowing the inertia towards the second half of the century. Flooding is hard to predict, and though precipitation patterns will be more extreme, it is hard to say how flooding will impact the Northeast. Similarly, we can predict that the sea level around New York City will rise by at least one to two feet, but under heavy emissions and impact scenarios, the sea level could rise by up to four feet. Sea level impacts will extend beyond the coast; Troy, a neighbor of Albany, is situated upon the Hudson and could suffer from the same rises. To summarize, changes in temperature will likely impact: 3 Human Health Ecosystems Energy Demand Agricultural Practices Changes in precipitation will likely impact: Water Resources Transportation Agriculture Ecosystems Changes in snowfall will likely impact: Water Resources Ecosystems, particularly in rural communities Changes in sea level will likely impact: Urban areas Coastal Ecosystems Q&A: Based off recent measurements, where are our current emissions relative to projected scenarios? o Higher is the relevant word. The recent economic downturn has helped reduce emissions in the short term, but in spite of this temporary reprieve, we are still on track at the higher end of the emissions scenarios. How did sea level rise calculations account for an increase in water versus thermal expansion? o ClimAid1 projections for sea level rise included thermal expansion, ice sheet melting, changes in ocean currents, and more. The majority increase in sea level comes from thermal expansion. 1 http:// www.nyserda.org/ClimAID 4 Zooming In: Impacts on the Rural Environment Moderator: Morgan Ellis, Climate Planner, Division of Energy & Climate, Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Ecosystems: David Wolfe, Professor, Cornell University Winters are getting warmer, and hardiness zones for plant life are shifting. The climate is always changing, but the rapid pace of today’s climate change is new within the past tens of thousands of years. The new temperatures across regions affect what crops can be grown, what trees populate a forest, which insect pests and how many live in a habitat.