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PSD14 SHMA June 2014.Pdf Leicester and Leicestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment Leicester and Leicestershire Local Planning Authorities Report June 2014 Prepared by GL Hearn Limited 280 High Holborn London WC1V 7EE T +44 (0)20 7851 4900 F +44 (0)20 7851 4910 glhearn.com Leicester and Leicestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, May 2014 Contents Section Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 1 INTRODUCTION 15 2 DEFINING THE HOUSING MARKET AREAS 17 3 POLICY CONTEXT 28 4 HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS AND MARKET SIGNALS 31 5 DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS 80 6 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED 103 7 NEED FOR DIFFERENT SIZES OF HOMES 131 8 HOUSING NEEDS OF SPECIFIC GROUPS IN THE POPULATION 145 9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 182 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: CLG-DEFINED STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET AREAS 18 FIGURE 2: CLG-DEFINED LOCAL HOUSING MARKET AREAS 19 FIGURE 3: SPATIAL BOUNDARIES IN EAST MIDLANDS 20 FIGURE 4: UNDERSTANDING HOUSING DEMAND 31 FIGURE 5: UK ECONOMIC GROWTH, 2007-2013 33 FIGURE 6: TRENDS IN GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING, UK 34 FIGURE 7: INTEREST RATES 35 FIGURE 8: MORTGAGE PAYMENTS AS A % OF MONTHLY INCOME 36 FIGURE 9: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE TRENDS, 1998 – 2007 37 FIGURE 10: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE TRENDS, 2008-2013 (Q2) 38 FIGURE 11: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES BY TYPE – LOCAL AUTHORITIES (AUG 2012-FEB 2013) 39 GL Hearn Page 3 of 239 J:\Planning\Job Files\J031082 - Leicestershire SHMA\reports\Leicestershire SHMA Report June V6.docx Leicester and Leicestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, May 2014 FIGURE 12: SALES TRENDS –OVERALL, 1998-2011 40 FIGURE 13: INDEX SALES TRENDS (2011-2013) 41 FIGURE 14: SALES INDEX (INDIVIDUAL DISTRICTS), 1998 – 2011 42 FIGURE 15: PERCENTAGE OF SALES BY TYPE – LA LEVEL, DECEMBER 2012 – NOV 2013 42 FIGURE 16: MEDIAN MONTHLY RENTAL LEVELS – 2011 - 2013 43 FIGURE 17: LOWER QUARTILE AFFORDABILITY (PRICE/INCOME) (1997 - 2012) 44 FIGURE 18: BOUNDARY OF THE LEICESTER PRINCIPAL URBAN AREA 48 FIGURE 19: INDEXED GROWTH IN DWELLING STOCK, 2001-11 76 FIGURE 20: NET COMPLETIONS 2001-2012 77 FIGURE 21: PAST AND PROJECTED TRENDS IN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE – L&L 92 FIGURE 22: MAP OF LEICESTER PRINCIPAL URBAN AREA AND PLANNED EXTENSIONS 99 FIGURE 23: LEICESTER AND SURROUNDS BRMA 109 FIGURE 24: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME – LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE 112 FIGURE 25: OVERVIEW OF BASIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL 113 FIGURE 26: OVERLAP BETWEEN AFFORDABLE HOUSING TENURES 127 FIGURE 27: PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS WHO CANNOT AFFORD MARKET HOUSING BY INCOME CATEGORY 128 FIGURE 28: NET NEED WITHIN DIFFERENT AFFORDABILITY CATEGORIES 129 FIGURE 29: APPROACH TO HOUSING MARKET MODELLING 132 FIGURE 30: AVERAGE BEDROOMS BY AGE, SEX AND TENURE – LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE HMA 133 FIGURE 31: IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ON AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED BY HOUSE SIZE, 2011 TO 2036 – LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE HMA 136 FIGURE 32: IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ON MARKET HOUSING NEED BY HOUSE SIZE, 2011 TO 2036 – LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE HMA 137 FIGURE 33: POPULATION AGE PROFILE BY LOCAL AUTHORITY (2011) 147 FIGURE 34: TENURE OF OLDER PERSON HOUSEHOLDS – LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE 150 GL Hearn Page 4 of 239 J:\Planning\Job Files\J031082 - Leicestershire SHMA\reports\Leicestershire SHMA Report June V6.docx Leicester and Leicestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, May 2014 FIGURE 35: TENURE OF OLDER PERSON HOUSEHOLDS – BY LOCAL AUTHORITY 150 FIGURE 36: OCCUPANCY RATING OF OLDER PERSON HOUSEHOLDS – LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE 151 FIGURE 37: INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION (AGED 75 AND OVER) 156 FIGURE 38: POPULATION WITH LTHPD IN EACH AGE BAND 160 FIGURE 39: CHANGES IN THE BME POPULATION 2001 TO 2011 – LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE 163 FIGURE 40: POPULATION AGE PROFILE (2011) 164 FIGURE 41: TENURE BY ETHNIC GROUP – LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE 165 FIGURE 42: OCCUPANCY RATING BY ETHNIC GROUP - LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE 166 FIGURE 43: TENURE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH DEPENDENT CHILDREN - LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE 167 FIGURE 44: OCCUPANCY RATING AND HOUSEHOLDS WITH DEPENDENT CHILDREN 168 FIGURE 45: TENURE BY AGE OF HRP - LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE 169 FIGURE 46: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BY AGE (PERSONS) - LEICESTER & LEICESTERSHIRE 170 FIGURE 47: ALL HIGHER EDUCATION STUDENTS AT LEICESTERSHIRE UNIVERSITIES 171 FIGURE 48: OVERSEAS STUDENTS AT LEICESTERSHIRE UNIVERSITIES 172 FIGURE 49: MAP OF URBAN AND RURAL CLASSIFICATIONS 176 FIGURE 50: POPULATION PROFILE BY URBAN/RURAL CLASSIFICATION (2011) 176 List of Tables TABLE 1: COMMUTING FLOWS, 2011 (WORKPLACE-BASED) 24 TABLE 2: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES, AND CHANGE SINCE Q2 2013 25 TABLE 3: COMPARISON OF MEDIAN AND LOWER QUARTILE AFFORDABILITY, 2012 44 TABLE 4: LOCAL HOUSING ALLOWANCE RENTS IN LEICESTER 49 TABLE 5: OVERCROWDING, 2011 74 TABLE 6: CHANGES IN OVERCROWDING (2001-2011) – BASED ON ROOM STANDARD 74 TABLE 7: VACANT AND SECOND HOMES, 2011 75 GL Hearn Page 5 of 239 J:\Planning\Job Files\J031082 - Leicestershire SHMA\reports\Leicestershire SHMA Report June V6.docx Leicester and Leicestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, May 2014 TABLE 8: HOUSING DELIVERY AGAINST FORMER RSS TARGET 77 TABLE 9: PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2011-21 – CLG 2011-BASED HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 81 TABLE 10: EXTENDING THE SNPP/CLG PROJECTIONS TO 2031 82 TABLE 11: EXTENDING THE SNPP/CLG PROJECTIONS TO 2036 82 TABLE 12: NET MIGRATION 2001-2012 84 TABLE 13: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PAST MIGRATION TRENDS AND FUTURE PROJECTION 85 TABLE 14: UNATTRIBUTABLE POPULATION CHANGE 2001-12 86 TABLE 15: PROJECTED LEVELS OF MIGRATION USED IN DEMOGRAPHIC TREND-BASED MODEL (FIRST 5-YEARS OF THE PROJECTION) 89 TABLE 16: UPDATED SNPP/CLG PROJECTIONS TO 2031 90 TABLE 17: UPDATED SNPP/CLG PROJECTIONS TO 2036 90 TABLE 18: UPDATED SNPP/CLG PROJECTIONS TO 2031 (MIDPOINT) – REDUCED HOUSEHOLD FORMATION CONSTRAINT 92 TABLE 19: UPDATED SNPP/CLG PROJECTIONS TO 2036 (MIDPOINT) – REDUCED HOUSEHOLD FORMATION CONSTRAINT 93 TABLE 20: FORECAST INCREASE IN JOBS TO 2031 AND 2036 94 TABLE 21: HOUSING NEED TO MEET ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS TO 2031 96 TABLE 22: HOUSING NEED TO MEET ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS TO 2036 96 TABLE 23: HOUSING NEED TO MEET ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS TO 2031 (AT THE HMA LEVEL) 97 TABLE 24: HOUSING NEED TO MEET ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS TO 2036 (AT THE HMA LEVEL) 97 TABLE 25: ANNUAL HOUSING NEED UNDER A RANGE OF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS – SUMMARY RESULTS 98 TABLE 26: HOUSING NEED IN THE PUA BASED ON DEMOGRAPHIC (MIDPOINT) PROJECTIONS (2011-2031) 100 TABLE 27: HOUSING NEED IN THE PUA BASED ON DEMOGRAPHIC (MIDPOINT) PROJECTIONS (2011-2036) 100 TABLE 28: HOUSING NEED IN THE PUA BASED ON EXPERIAN FORECASTS (2011-2031) 101 GL Hearn Page 6 of 239 J:\Planning\Job Files\J031082 - Leicestershire SHMA\reports\Leicestershire SHMA Report June V6.docx Leicester and Leicestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, May 2014 TABLE 29: HOUSING NEED IN THE PUA BASED ON EXPERIAN FORECASTS (2011-2036) 101 TABLE 30: HOUSING NEED IN THE PUA BASED ON REVISED ECONOMIC GROWTH DISTRIBUTION (2011-2031) 102 TABLE 31: HOUSING NEED IN THE PUA BASED ON REVISED ECONOMIC GROWTH DISTRIBUTION (2011-2036) 102 TABLE 32: LOWER QUARTILE SALES PRICES BY TYPE AND LOCATION (2013) 106 TABLE 33: LOWER QUARTILE PRIVATE RENTS BY SIZE AND LOCATION (YEAR TO SEPTEMBER 2013) – PER MONTH 107 TABLE 34: COUNT OF RENTS RECORDED BY VOA (YEAR TO SEPTEMBER 2013) 108 TABLE 35: MAXIMUM LHA PAYMENTS BY SIZE 109 TABLE 36: MONTHLY AVERAGE SOCIAL RENT LEVELS (INCLUDING SERVICE CHARGES) 110 TABLE 37: INDICATIVE INCOME REQUIRED TO PURCHASE/RENT WITHOUT ADDITIONAL SUBSIDY 111 TABLE 38: HOUSEHOLD INCOME LEVELS BY LOCAL AUTHORITY 113 TABLE 39: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS IN UNSUITABLE HOUSING 115 TABLE 40: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (CURRENT NEED) 115 TABLE 41: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED FROM NEWLY FORMING HOUSEHOLDS (PER ANNUM 2011-2036) 117 TABLE 42: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS (PER ANNUM) 118 TABLE 43: SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING BY LOCAL AUTHORITY 119 TABLE 44: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (2011-36) 119 TABLE 45: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (PER ANNUM) 120 TABLE 46: ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED WITH DIFFERENT ‘BACKLOG’ PERIODS (ALL FIGURES PER ANNUM) 121 TABLE 47: NET AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED AS % OF OVERALL HOUSING NEED FROM MIDPOINT SCENARIO 121 TABLE 48: SCALE OF OVERALL HOUSING DELIVERY TO MEET AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED ON CURRENT POLICY BASIS PER ANNUM 122 TABLE 49: LHA CLAIMANTS IN THE PRIVATE RENTED SECTOR 123 GL Hearn Page 7 of 239 J:\Planning\Job Files\J031082 - Leicestershire SHMA\reports\Leicestershire SHMA Report June V6.docx Leicester and Leicestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, May 2014 TABLE 50: ESTIMATED PROFILE OF DWELLINGS IN THE HMA IN 2011 BY SIZE 134 TABLE 51: MODELLED SIZE OF DWELLINGS NEEDED FOR THE HMA 2011 TO 2036 – AFFORDABLE HOUSING 135 TABLE 52: ESTIMATED PROPORTION OF AFFORDABLE ONE BEDROOM HOUSING NEED DUE TO THE AGEING OF THE POPULATION 136 TABLE 53: MODELLED AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITY, 2011-2036 137 TABLE 54: MODELLED SIZES OF DWELLINGS NEEDED 2011 TO 2036 – MARKET HOUSING 137 TABLE 55: DEMOGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN NEED FOR DIFFERENT SIZES OF HOMES, 2011 TO 2036 139 TABLE 56: MODELLED AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITY, 2011-2036 140 TABLE 57: SIZE OF STOCK IN SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR 141 TABLE 58: OVERCROWDING AND UNDER-OCCUPANCY IN THE SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR 141 TABLE 59: GUIDANCE ON AFFORDABLE HOUSING MIX 142 TABLE 60: ESTIMATED DWELLING REQUIREMENT BY NUMBER OF BEDROOMS (2011 TO 2036) – MARKET SECTOR 143 TABLE 61: GUIDANCE ON MARKET HOUSING MIX 143 TABLE 62: RECOMMENDED MIX OF AFFORDABLE AND MARKET HOMES
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