MVAC Forecast: 2006-2007 Agricultural Consumption Year Despite a Good Cropping Season, June 2006 Brief Some Vulnerability Still Persists According to this year’s latest Vulnerable Areas in (second round) crop estimates, Poorest Households: Forecast for April 2006 to April 2007 Malawi’s maize harvest is the larg- est since 2000. Total production Burundi Kenya VAC (2.35 million tonnes) is estimated Congo, DRC Tanzania to exceed national food require-

K Angola Malawi ments by eight percent. However, 10°0'0"S A R Zambia C O this good news does not apply to H N Mozambique MALAWI IT G Zimbabwe IP A everyone in the country. Some A Botswana Vulnerability parts of the country suffered dry Swaziland Assessment Committee

L South AfricaLesotho spells and devastating floods I a MPH which destroyed crops and as a RU k Malawi e

result some households have har- M Vulnerability

vested virtually nothing. a Assessment City l

a

A Y w In terms of the overall eco- B A Committee

M B

I i

Z A nomic situation, which seems to T

M A In collaboration with H

be improving, there are still a K number of problems to overcome. N LIKOMA The SADC-FANR The economy faces high transport and business operating costs and Regional N

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H low producer prices for tobacco U Vulnerability O G N T A and cotton. The good national U K Assessment S N A T O C food production threatens produc- K T H A Committee IS ers with low prices for maize and I M S C D O A other food stuffs. H W A L I N IM J A I As a result of these factors, the City LIL ON M Malawi Vulnerability Assessment GW A E N Committee estimates that about ZA G ED O VAC D C 833,000 people will have little or H Key: I N Lake Malombe no food at some point this year. A International Boundary T C

H Lake Chiuta

further 147,800 people are border- E District Boundaries A 15°0'0"S U K MACHINGA A SADC FANR line cases and any adverse eco- Protected Area L A Vulnerability nomic developments would mean B Urban and Peri-Urban Areas ZOMBA Lake Chilwa Assessment Committee A Zomba Municipality that they too would have inade- Z Rivers N A W quate food supplies. One of the PHALOMBE Lakes M CHIRADZULU Blantyre City M U main assumptions in these figures L Missing Food Entitlements A C T N H H J is that the average national price I Y E % Energy Needs of Poorest Hhs K O

W L A O of maize will be around K30 per Watch W kg. A 10% - 20%

The table overleaf shows de- 20% - 30% NSANJE

tails of the number of people fac- > 30% Government of the (Continued on page 2) 020 40 80 120 160 200 km 35°0'0"E Republic of Malawi

Inside this The forecast in a nutshell: document: • Malawi expects a good harvest this year (2006). Overall food production is more than what is needed at the national level. There is no need to import maize. The Number of Households 2 without Food, and Why it • Differs from Entitlements However, a number of isolated areas had a poor season (in some cases as bad as last year) and household access to food will be undermined by low incomes. Vulnerability numbers by 2 district • MVAC estimates that about 833,000 people will not have adequate food, while a fur- ther 147,800 people will need to be watched; worsening economic conditions such as Nutrition 3 high maize prices will push the ’watch’ population below their needs.

• The affected people will need to obtain around K 1,814 million in entitlements to meet Markets and trade 3 their basic needs, which could also be replaced with 57,300 MT of maize or other cere- als. Seasonality 3 • Nutrition data (at harvest time) indicate that there are substantial numbers of children How the MVAC carried out 4 suffering from malnutrition in areas affected by drought last year. In all areas, stunting

MALAWI VULNERABILITYMALAWI ASSESSMENT COMMITTEE it’s analysis and mortality are significant. (Continued from page 1) , Bolero and Muhuju Vulnerable Areas in Malawi Poorest Households: Forecast for April 2006 to April 2007 ing food shortages by district. It is also EPAs: Late season, dry spells poor food important to know, even when people crop production. Expected low tobacco have enough food, whether their eating prices. habits promote or encourage healthy lives. This is what is called nutritional Key: district, , Tukombo and International Boundary status and information on this is on L Mzenga EPAs: flooding . a Protected Area page 3. k

e Urban and Peri-Urban Areas Maize to Cash to cover M Lakes District with cover miss- Kasungu (all except Santhe a Missing Food Entitlements Population Population missing food Mzuzu City populations ing food l % Energy Needs of Poorest Hhs at risk on ‘Watch’ entitlements EPA), Ntchisi (Chikwatula, a at risk entitle- (MWK) Chipuka and Malomo EPAs), w Watch ments (MT) i Dowa (parts of Madisi and 10% - 20% Balaka 25,900 29,000,000 1,000 Bowe EPAs) and Mzimba 20% - 30% Blantyre 106,500 165,400,000 5,400 (Emfeni and Luwelezi EPAs): > 30% Chikwawa 59,900 132,300,000 4,400 Poor rainfall, devastating dry 030609012015015 Dowa 48,800 144,800,000 4,400 spells. Low tobacco prices. km Kasungu 238,200 611,900,000 18,800 Lilongwe 12,300 75,600 15,000,000 500 Lilongwe: Chilaza EPA: Machinga 6,300 somewhat poor maize and Lilongwe City Mangochi 39,500 34,400,000 1,200 tobacco production, low Mulanje 65,900 tobacco prices. Ming’ongo, Mwanza/ Mng’wangwa, Mpenu and Lake Malombe 22,400 25,000,000 900 Lake Chiuta Neno Nyanja EPAs to be Mzimba 51,300 152,100,000 4,600 watched. Zomba Municipality Nkhata Bay 11,700 9,900,000 300 Lake Chilwa Nsanje 51,900 114,700,000 3,800 Mangochi (Mbwadzulu and Nasenga EPAs) Blantyre City Ntchisi 98,500 292,300,000 8,900 and Salima (Khombedza EPA): localised Phalombe 27,000 35,400,000 1,200 flooding. Rumphi 25,300 39,900,000 1,500 Salima 13,800 12,000,000 400 Blantyre (Lirangwe and Kunthembwe Grand Total 833,000 147,800 1,814,100,000 57,300 EPAs), Mwanza (Lisungwi EPA) & Balaka The figures given in this report represent the (Mpilisi EPA): Prolonged dry spells. Phalombe (Tamani and Kosongo picture on ‘abnormal’ vulnerability as it relates EPAs): dry spells. Watch Kam- to this year only (called transient vulnerabil- Parts of Nsanje and Chikwawa (along the Shire and lower wendo and Thuchila EPAs ity). Specifically, the figures show the tempo- Mwanza Rivers): Earlier dry spells, floods occurred late in (). rary effects of bad events or hazards that have the farming season along the Shire and the lower Mwanza occurred or are likely to occur in the course of this year. They do not include the effect of many other hazards that households may experience in “unaffected” areas, such as dis- The Number of Households without Food and Why eases (HIV/AIDS being particularly impor- tant), crime incidents, etc. it Differs from Entitlements and Vulnerability All vulnerability is abnormal. However, the Every month, the Ministry of Agriculture Households may also receive remittances large number of poor households that have and Food Security provides figures on the or support from within the village, in cash entitlements or means of living that fall short number of households without food. This or in kind, usually from relatives or close of their required needs every year, even when quantity is useful as a measure of how much family friends. food is available to people, but it is not a there is no disaster, belong to ongoing (termed This means that if we are to measure of vulnerability be- ‘chronic’) vulnerability. The figures in this find out the number of house- cause it includes people who … households do not get report do not reflect this ‘chronic’ vulnerabil- holds who are vulnerable, we can afford to buy their own ity. This does not mean that the matter is less must know first of all how food. The figure does not also all their food just by important, only that it is not yet estimated. they go about getting all their show how food is utilised. growing food crops… These figures should be used to inform the food. Some deliberately do response that must be made, in terms of the The reason for this is that not grow food because they design, the scale and the size of provisions households do not get all their food just by can afford to buy all the food that they that are to go to the affected people. While growing food crops; many of them depend need. The sum of all the ways households every attempt is made to produce informa- on food purchases or exchanges at their can get their food is called their entitle- tion that is accurate, time and areas of cover- local markets. The money used for pur- ments. When the entitlements of a popula- age often limit the extent to which detail can chasing may come from a number of tion are insufficient to meet their food be collected. It is important, therefore, that sources, like cash crop sales, sales of live- needs, they are said have missing food agencies operating on the ground in each stock, sales of handicrafts, casual labour entitlements. In this way, the MVAC looks district determine the exact extent of the (ganyu, which is very common for the poor beyond the state of “not having food in affected areas, villages, populations and the households), etc. The poor often receive store” to “not being able to get food”. names of people in need of assistance. food directly as a payment for ganyu.

Page 2 FORECAST: 2006-2007 Nutrition (LZ), 4.7 percent in Western Rumphi and line, one might expect that areas with Mzimba LZ, and 5.4 percent in the Lake greater numbers forecast for people at risk Measures of nutrition status help us to Chilwa-Phalombe Plain LZ. Kwashiorkor of missing food entitlements would see understand how well food is utilised by cases were very high in Western Rumphi earlier and in higher proportions of acute households. These measures are usually and Mzimba LZ (1.9 percent) and were malnutrition and underweight children. taken on children. This year three nutri- also high in the Phalombe areas (1.0 per- That this is not so indicates that house- tion surveys were conducted by UNICEF cent), contributing to high rates of severe holds are coping at this early stage. Infor- in parallel with MVAC field visits. This acute malnutrition in those areas. mation on further developments will come way, we know how people are doing at from the surveillance trends and the NRU Fever with chills (proxy for malaria), diar- the start of the period under review. admission figures. Also, the absence of rhoea and pneumonia were the more re- nutrition survey data in other areas with a ported causes of death among children. Prevalences of Global Acute Malnutrition bad food security forecast does not mean Prevalence of fever with chills (proxy of (GAM) among children 6-59 months of that no nutritional problem can happen to malaria) was 37.2 percent, fever with dif- age was 3.0 percent in parts of the Ka- children in the forthcoming months. sungu-Lilongwe plain livelihood zone ficult breathing (proxy of ARTI) was 21.8 percent, and diarrhoea was 17.9 percent. The under five mortality rate was highest Prevalence of M alnutrition in surveyed in the Lake Chilwa– Phalombe zone In an analysis of nutrition data using (%) areas, April 2006 (0.84/10,000/day), which is below serious 60 household wealth groups (poor, middle 51.1 levels of concern. 50 45.9 38.7 and better-off), no significant relationship 40 was found between acute malnutrition or W Rumphi Kasungu- L Chilwa- 27.8 Measure & Mzimba Lilongwe Phalombe 30 23.2 20.1 underweight prevalence with wealth LZ plain LZ Plain LZ 20 status. Apparently, malnutrition affects Mortality 0.57 0.39 0.84 4.7 4.5 5.4 Rate Under Five * 10 2.8 2.6 3 children independently of household (0.25-0.89) (0.21-0.57) (0.57-1.12) 0 0.35 0.18 0.45 wealth status during harvest time. This Crude** West ern Rumphi Kasungu-Lilongwe Lake Chilwa- (0.17-0.53) (0.11-0.25) (0.32-0.58) may change if forecast food shortages and M zimba areas plain areas Phalombe Plain * under five deaths/10,000/day ; ** total deaths/10,000/day areas become severe. U5MR worrying levels=2/10,000/day. U5MR emergency St unt ing Underweight level=4/10,000/day Wasting Global A cut e M alnut rit ion Using this survey information as a base- CMR worrying levels=2/10,000/day.CMR emergency

The MVAC field teams found that market ten bags at a time. They then need to sell Markets and trade arrangements are quite complex; consist- this quickly to recover their investment. ing of vendors who With such tight capital con- This year is different from the previous Comparison of Missing Food Entitlements (MFEs) buy and sell in the straints, it appears unlikely four years because there is a surplus in and food balance sheet (FBS) deficits for 5 years village, to small local that small traders buy food national maize production (see graph MT(Thousands) traders in the larger 400 to hoard for six months and across). There is no need to import food 200 villages, to the larger sell later in the year. into the country in order to supply the 0 traders and wholesal- Rather, they move food out areas that are in deficit. There is need, -200 ers in the towns. The to an area of known deficit however, for markets to function to their -400 biggest constraint for earlier in the year and back fullest potential in moving food from -600 all but the few large in from another surplus surplus to deficit areas. -800 traders is capital; 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- area. Storing and hoarding many are unable to 03 04 05 06 07 The MVAC assessment included a com- is only possible with the purchase more than Ag ric Cons Y ear ponent aimed at understanding markets. Food Balance M FEs (M aize Eq.) few large traders.

sungu area, parts of Rumphi and the basins in quarter, not the usual ‘hunger season’. Seasonality Nkhata Bay, while Nsanje would feel it a month This is due to the timing of their main earlier —in July. In the third quarter, all areas with staple food - cassava . The period to which this MVAC forecast people at risk will become severely vulnerable, This seasonality of food insecurity, as applies is the agricultural consumption year although Nkhata Bay will be worst off in the third well as seasonal variation in child mal- 2006-2007. The agricultural consumption Poorest Households: Forecast for each quarter from April 2006 to April 2007 year starts at the beginning of the harvest nutrition will be tracked on a monthly and continues up until just before the basis by the MoAFS/AAH surveil- next harvest. In South of the country, this lance project. These measures all get is from April 2006 to March 2007. In worse in a bad year and during the most of the Centre and the North, the hungry period. consumption year runs from May to Food Stress Index for Lake Chilwa- April. FSI 1 Phalombe Plain 1:16,000,000 80.0 2004-05 2005-06 Vulnerability is usually not Key: 70.0 Protected Area high within the first three 60.0 months of a consumption year, Urban and Peri-Urban Areas MFE per person 50.0 but gets serious as the year % min kcal needs 40.0 drags on. This would be the Watch 30.0 10% - 20% second quarter for the Ka- 20% - 30% 20.0 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 30% - 100% MayJulySeptNovJanMar

MVAC FORECAST: 2006-2007 Page 3 The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee comprises Government, inter-government, aca- demic and non-profit member organizations that seek to provide information to inform public action. Participating MVAC members include: VAC

MALAWI Vulnerability Assessment Committee World Food Programme MVAC SECRETARIAT The Ministry of Economic Planning and Development Room 58, Ministry of Economic Planning & The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Development Security P Bag B506 The Department of Poverty and Lilongwe, 3 University of Malawi Malawi Disaster Management Affairs Bunda College of Tel. +265 (0) 1 78 8417 The Ministry of Local Government Agriculture Fax +265 (0) 1 78 8609 The Ministry of Finance The National Statistics Office The MVAC Secretariat is funded by the Government of Malawi and the British Contributing staff: Department for International Smart Masamba, Maria Bernadez, Alex Castellano, Thwango Ndalama, Chimwaza, Gift Mafuleka, James Bwirani, Susanne Thursboll, Wavisanga Development (DFID), with technical and Caesar Kachale, Tamara Lampe, Norias Kayira, Alpha Gama, G. Mapulanga, Munyenyembe, Stanley Chitekwe, Patrick Codjia, Benjamin Banda, Mat- administrative support from Save the Fiskani Nkana, Dickson Kazembe, Ben Essex, Masozi Kachale, Lusungu thews Madola, Steven Moyo, Isaih Sunganimoyo, Mercy Chikoko, Beratrice Children (US). Additional funding is Chitete, Gladys Zimba, Hannock Kumwenda, Moses Kachale, Simon Mu- Mtimuni, Numeray Geresomo, George Bello Catherine Nkangama, Victor received from the European Union, lungu, Charles Rethman, Richard Kajombo, Andrew Nyirenda, Tabeni Chayamba and student enumerators from Bunda College through the Technical Secretariat of the Chirambo, Lamech Chimphero, Daniel Kanyerere, Evance Chapasuka, Sam Food Security Joint Task Force in the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security Data from the following organisations were gratefully received and used: 1. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (crop estimates, the and breakdowns) food balance sheet and farm gate prices) 5. Meteorological Service Also Available on Request: 2. The Ministry of Economic Planning and Development (Economic 6. United Nations Children’s Fund (Nutrition assessment, nutrition- Livelihood Zone Maps & data, inflation and GDP projections) socio-economic correlations) Vulnerability 2006-07 Maps 3. The Department of Poverty and Disaster Management Affairs 7. FEWS-NET (price data) (information on recently affected areas) 8. Nutrition and Food Security Surveillance System (Action Against 4. The National Statistics Office (Economic data, population figures Hunger/Ministry of Health/Ministry of Agriculture) How the MVAC carried out it’s analysis In order to make a prediction, assump- The MVAC uses a technical methodology, members or staff of the district assem- tions had to be made for indicators whose called the Household Economy Approach blies, thereafter the teams met with EPA values would occur in the future, such as (HEA), for modelling its forecasts. Read- staff. After that, the teams went into vil- availability and wage rates for ganyu in ers seeking further information on this lages and conducted semi-structured fo- the forthcoming farming season, or future can contact the MVAC Secretariat. cus group interviews with farmers from staple purchase prices. Some of the critical different wealth groups. The interviews assumptions made for this year’s analysis This year’s assessment began with training followed a basic structure but were not a include: from 10 to 13th April, 2006, for staff who questionnaire-type format. Interviewers took part in the field survey. This was fol- • The coming season will be normal were expected to cross-check their infor- lowed by field work and data analysis for • The majority of households will maximise mation as they went along and to probe two weeks. The teams visited the following opportunities to meet their minimum food anomalies or unexpected results. This districts: Balaka, Blantyre, Chikwawa, intake, given the option to do so meant that analysis actually began during Dowa, Kasungu, Lilongwe, Machinga, Man- • Tobacco price will continue to remain at the interviews and that interesting in- gochi, Mzimba, Nkhata Bay, Nsanje, Ntchisi, similar levels to those in early May, 2006 sights could be explored as well. This Ntcheu, Phalombe, Rumphi and Salima. • No substantial devaluation of the kwacha methodology saves on resources and After visiting the District Assembly and the • Inflation will be (official forecast) 10.4 time, making it affordable, sustainable Agriculture Offices, teams visited the af- percent and quick. It is an attempt to maximise fected Extension Planning Areas (EPAs) • That the present maize surplus will not the use of existing information and sur- where at least two villages per EPA were be sold off outside the country. vey data (instead of replicating it), while visited. In these villages teams met with • Cereal prices in the lean season will ensuring that this data reflects the situa- elders and community leaders, as well as track the compounded inflation rate, tion on the ground and is internally con- focus groups from each of the main wealth when comparing with previous years sistent. groups (poor, middle and better-off). (resulting maize price approximately The MVAC also used a range of secondary MK30 per kg) During the field visits, teams first met sources of data such as the second round Population figures are obtained from the crop estimates from the Ministry of Agri- Below: Focus group interviews official NSO projections for 2006. culture and Food Security (MoAFS), popu- lation projections from the National Statis- The nutrition surveys were carried out tics Office (NSO), surveillance data from using two-stage thirty-by-thirty cluster the Nutrition and Food Security Surveil- sampling; the clusters were based on the lance System, inflation rates from NSO enumeration areas (EAs) defined by the and price data from MoAFS/FEWS-NET. NSO for the census. Since the MVAC has The field trips therefore acted as an oppor- also classified EAs into livelihood zones, tunity to verify secondary source data it was easy to select clusters from known with members from the District Assem- affected areas. Questions were included in blies and villagers. the survey on resource-status. Photo: Sam Chimwaza