MVAC Forecast: 2006-2007 Agricultural Consumption Year Despite a Good Cropping Season, June 2006 Brief Some Vulnerability Still Persists According to this year’s latest Vulnerable Areas in Malawi (second round) crop estimates, Poorest Households: Forecast for April 2006 to April 2007 Malawi’s maize harvest is the larg- est since 2000. Total production Burundi Kenya VAC (2.35 million tonnes) is estimated Congo, DRC Tanzania to exceed national food require- K Angola Malawi ments by eight percent. However, 10°0'0"S A R Zambia C O this good news does not apply to H N Mozambique MALAWI IT G Zimbabwe IP A everyone in the country. Some A Botswana Vulnerability parts of the country suffered dry Swaziland Assessment Committee L South AfricaLesotho spells and devastating floods I a MPH which destroyed crops and as a RU k Malawi e result some households have har- M Vulnerability vested virtually nothing. a Assessment Mzuzu City l a A Y w In terms of the overall eco- B A Committee M B I i Z A nomic situation, which seems to T M A In collaboration with H be improving, there are still a K number of problems to overcome. N LIKOMA The SADC-FANR The economy faces high transport and business operating costs and Regional N K H low producer prices for tobacco U Vulnerability O G N T A and cotton. The good national U K Assessment S N A T O C food production threatens produc- K T H A Committee IS ers with low prices for maize and I M S C D O A other food stuffs. H W A L I N IM J A I As a result of these factors, the Lilongwe City LIL ON M Malawi Vulnerability Assessment GW A E N Committee estimates that about ZA G ED O VAC D C 833,000 people will have little or H Key: I N Lake Malombe no food at some point this year. A International Boundary T C H Lake Chiuta further 147,800 people are border- E District Boundaries A 15°0'0"S U K MACHINGA A SADC FANR line cases and any adverse eco- Protected Area L A Vulnerability nomic developments would mean B Urban and Peri-Urban Areas ZOMBA Lake Chilwa Assessment Committee A Zomba Municipality that they too would have inade- Z Rivers N A W BLANTYRE quate food supplies. One of the PHALOMBE Lakes M CHIRADZULU Blantyre City M U main assumptions in these figures L Missing Food Entitlements A C T N H H J is that the average national price I Y E % Energy Needs of Poorest Hhs K O W L A O of maize will be around K30 per Watch W kg. A 10% - 20% The table overleaf shows de- 20% - 30% NSANJE tails of the number of people fac- > 30% Government of the (Continued on page 2) 020 40 80 120 160 200 km 35°0'0"E Republic of Malawi Inside this The forecast in a nutshell: document: • Malawi expects a good harvest this year (2006). Overall food production is more than what is needed at the national level. There is no need to import maize. The Number of Households 2 without Food, and Why it • Differs from Entitlements However, a number of isolated areas had a poor season (in some cases as bad as last year) and household access to food will be undermined by low incomes. Vulnerability numbers by 2 district • MVAC estimates that about 833,000 people will not have adequate food, while a fur- ther 147,800 people will need to be watched; worsening economic conditions such as Nutrition 3 high maize prices will push the ’watch’ population below their needs. • The affected people will need to obtain around K 1,814 million in entitlements to meet Markets and trade 3 their basic needs, which could also be replaced with 57,300 MT of maize or other cere- als. Seasonality 3 • Nutrition data (at harvest time) indicate that there are substantial numbers of children How the MVAC carried out 4 suffering from malnutrition in areas affected by drought last year. In all areas, stunting MALAWI VULNERABILITYMALAWI ASSESSMENT COMMITTEE it’s analysis and mortality are significant. (Continued from page 1) Rumphi district, Bolero and Muhuju Vulnerable Areas in Malawi Poorest Households: Forecast for April 2006 to April 2007 ing food shortages by district. It is also EPAs: Late season, dry spells poor food important to know, even when people crop production. Expected low tobacco have enough food, whether their eating prices. habits promote or encourage healthy lives. This is what is called nutritional Key: Nkhata Bay district, Chintheche, Tukombo and International Boundary status and information on this is on L Mzenga EPAs: flooding . a Protected Area page 3. k e Urban and Peri-Urban Areas Maize to Cash to cover M Lakes District with cover miss- Kasungu (all except Santhe a Missing Food Entitlements Population Population missing food Mzuzu City populations ing food l % Energy Needs of Poorest Hhs at risk on ‘Watch’ entitlements EPA), Ntchisi (Chikwatula, a at risk entitle- (MWK) Chipuka and Malomo EPAs), w Watch ments (MT) i Dowa (parts of Madisi and 10% - 20% Balaka 25,900 29,000,000 1,000 Bowe EPAs) and Mzimba 20% - 30% Blantyre 106,500 165,400,000 5,400 (Emfeni and Luwelezi EPAs): > 30% Chikwawa 59,900 132,300,000 4,400 Poor rainfall, devastating dry 030609012015015 Dowa 48,800 144,800,000 4,400 spells. Low tobacco prices. km Kasungu 238,200 611,900,000 18,800 Lilongwe 12,300 75,600 15,000,000 500 Lilongwe: Chilaza EPA: Machinga 6,300 somewhat poor maize and Lilongwe City Mangochi 39,500 34,400,000 1,200 tobacco production, low Mulanje 65,900 tobacco prices. Ming’ongo, Mwanza/ Mng’wangwa, Mpenu and Lake Malombe 22,400 25,000,000 900 Lake Chiuta Neno Nyanja EPAs to be Mzimba 51,300 152,100,000 4,600 watched. Zomba Municipality Nkhata Bay 11,700 9,900,000 300 Lake Chilwa Nsanje 51,900 114,700,000 3,800 Mangochi (Mbwadzulu and Nasenga EPAs) Blantyre City Ntchisi 98,500 292,300,000 8,900 and Salima (Khombedza EPA): localised Phalombe 27,000 35,400,000 1,200 flooding. Rumphi 25,300 39,900,000 1,500 Salima 13,800 12,000,000 400 Blantyre (Lirangwe and Kunthembwe Grand Total 833,000 147,800 1,814,100,000 57,300 EPAs), Mwanza (Lisungwi EPA) & Balaka The figures given in this report represent the (Mpilisi EPA): Prolonged dry spells. Phalombe (Tamani and Kosongo picture on ‘abnormal’ vulnerability as it relates EPAs): dry spells. Watch Kam- to this year only (called transient vulnerabil- Parts of Nsanje and Chikwawa (along the Shire and lower wendo and Thuchila EPAs ity). Specifically, the figures show the tempo- Mwanza Rivers): Earlier dry spells, floods occurred late in (Mulanje district). rary effects of bad events or hazards that have the farming season along the Shire and the lower Mwanza occurred or are likely to occur in the course of this year. They do not include the effect of many other hazards that households may experience in “unaffected” areas, such as dis- The Number of Households without Food and Why eases (HIV/AIDS being particularly impor- tant), crime incidents, etc. it Differs from Entitlements and Vulnerability All vulnerability is abnormal. However, the Every month, the Ministry of Agriculture Households may also receive remittances large number of poor households that have and Food Security provides figures on the or support from within the village, in cash entitlements or means of living that fall short number of households without food. This or in kind, usually from relatives or close of their required needs every year, even when quantity is useful as a measure of how much family friends. food is available to people, but it is not a there is no disaster, belong to ongoing (termed This means that if we are to measure of vulnerability be- ‘chronic’) vulnerability. The figures in this find out the number of house- cause it includes people who … households do not get report do not reflect this ‘chronic’ vulnerabil- holds who are vulnerable, we can afford to buy their own ity. This does not mean that the matter is less must know first of all how food. The figure does not also all their food just by important, only that it is not yet estimated. they go about getting all their show how food is utilised. growing food crops… These figures should be used to inform the food. Some deliberately do response that must be made, in terms of the The reason for this is that not grow food because they design, the scale and the size of provisions households do not get all their food just by can afford to buy all the food that they that are to go to the affected people. While growing food crops; many of them depend need. The sum of all the ways households every attempt is made to produce informa- on food purchases or exchanges at their can get their food is called their entitle- tion that is accurate, time and areas of cover- local markets. The money used for pur- ments. When the entitlements of a popula- age often limit the extent to which detail can chasing may come from a number of tion are insufficient to meet their food be collected. It is important, therefore, that sources, like cash crop sales, sales of live- needs, they are said have missing food agencies operating on the ground in each stock, sales of handicrafts, casual labour entitlements.