Interview Italy’s ripple After the Paula Yacoubian, effects across elections in Iraq a new face the Mediterranean and Tunisia in Lebanon’s parliament Page 18 Pages 3, 13 Page 5

May 27, 2018 Issue 158, Year 4

UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com EU €2.50 Risks of wider Middle East confrontation as Iran pursues ambitions ► Growing friction between Israel and Iran, with Tehran’s ambition of becoming the region’s superpower as it exerts growing influence across the unstable region, Looming peril. (AFP) lies at the core of the problem. Iranians take part in an anti-US and Israel demonstration in Tehran, on May 18.

Ed Blanche interdiction of nuclear enrichment, In conjunction with that, succes- wield considerable power. cabinet was “strongly considering” ballistic missiles and Tehran’s re- sive layers of economic sanctions Trump has made it abundantly a long-term ceasefire with Hamas in gional ambitions through armed are being imposed on Iran’s key clear the United States stands be- Gaza, something it dismissed out of Beirut proxies. ally, Hezbollah, by the United States hind Israel, having moved its em- hand only weeks ago. Washington’s uncompromising while the United Nations urges the bassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem on That suggests that Israel, fearing he Middle East is in turmoil position on Tehran appears to have Lebanese movement to halt its mili- May 14, bolstering Israel’s claim to a serious clash with Iran in Syria, and all the signs are that set the United States on a collision tary operations, a key element of sole control of the holy city. wants to dampen violence on its wider conflict is likely but course with Iran after Washington Iran’s regional strategy. On May 23, Israeli Intelligence southern border to avoid a two- T there does not appear to unilaterally abrogated the landmark Right now, however, Hezbollah Minister Yisrael Katz indicated front showdown — or at least defray be any significant effort by the ma- 2015 nuclear agreement with the Is- and its allies see themselves on a Prime Minister Binyamin Netan- an international outcry over the jor powers — primarily the United lamic Republic. winning streak and are unlikely to yahu’s far-right government ex- Gaza slaughter. States and Russia — to avert calam- US President Donald Trump “may back off. pects more major concessions from Meantime, cracks are appearing ity. prefer to distance us from Middle They control Lebanon’s parlia- Trump — such as formal recognition in the alliance between Russia and Growing friction between Israel East conflicts,” Ross noted, “but ment following May 6 elections and of Syria’s southern Golan Heights as Iran, Syrian President Bashar As- and Iran, with Tehran’s ambition of they have a way of finding us and will effectively be in charge of the Israeli territory. sad’s key allies that have kept him becoming the region’s superpower withdrawal from the Iran nuclear government for the first time. Israel seized part of the strategic in power. Russia does not want to as it exerts growing influence across deal won’t stop Iran’s effort to ex- Thus legitimised, Iran’s influ- volcanic plateau in 1967 and unilat- use its air defences in Syria to com- the unstable region, lies at the core pand in the region. ence in the Levant, a key target in erally annexed it in 1981. This has bat Israel’s air strikes, which are of the problem. Tehran’s grand design, is expected never been internationally recog- primarily targeting Iranian forces. “An all-out war between Iran and Dennis Ross to intensify, antagonising Israel, nised. Tehran’s “lack of conviction” in a Israel is approaching and the Trump Washington Institute already alarmed at Iran’s growing That standoff could spiral into a political solution,” which Moscow administration has no strategy for Fellow and former US military power in Syria on its north- new Israeli confrontation with the favours, is a potentially divisive preventing it,” observed Dennis senior offcial ern border. Arab world, particularly if Netan- element that could reshape the Ross of the Washington Institute for The Israeli Air Force’s disclosure yahu is emboldened enough to try geopolitical element” at a crucial “Withdrawal from the Iran Near East Policy in a May 20 analy- that it has carried out combat oper- to annex the West Bank as well, juncture. nuclear deal won’t stop Iran’s sis. ations with its state-of-the-art F-35 dashing any hopes of a Palestinian In Iraq, the United States is reach- effort to expand in the region.” Consider how, in recent days, the stealth fighters from the US, only state — and thus a peace treaty — ing out to one-time foe Muqtada al- situation has seriously deteriorated months after receiving the first of 50 emerging. Sadr to blunt Iran’s efforts to trans- with the global states, traditional “To the contrary, sooner or later, of the most advanced fighter jets in The long-mooted embassy move form the Shia-majority country into arbiters of coexistence, seemingly that expansion will trigger a wider the world, underlines the tension. triggered major Palestinian pro- a Persian province under a new unable — or unwilling — to prevent war. Engage now or engage later Israel has been intensifying its tests, with Israeli military gunfire government. the region’s various conflicts merg- that’s the choice we face.” air strikes against Iranian targets in killing more than 60 Gazans and ing and reaching critical mass. The consensus is that Iran defies Syria. It may be a matter of time be- wounding thousands more as they Ed Blanche is a regular US Secretary of State Mike the Trump administration because fore open warfare erupts between protested on Israel’s southern bor- contributor to The Arab Weekly. Pompeo, an anti-Iran hawk, an- it sees the European powers — in- them. der. He has reported on the Middle nounced a new strategy of con- cluding Russia, Britain, Germany While cooler heads on both sides With Israel facing trouble on East since 1967. fronting Iran that goes beyond the and France — increasingly alienated want to avoid war, the hard-line two fronts, Channel 10 television anti-proliferation restrictions to the by Washington. camps in Tehran and Washington reported May 21 that Netanyahu’s P2,6-7 Arab world represented by unprecedented four teams in Russia’s FIFA World Cup

Justin Salhani ages of Arab stars competing against country proud. Egypt is probably the Arsenal’s rising star Mohamed Elne- the best could also be an inspiration Morocco will learn just before strongest Arab team in ny — and Egypt could make a run for for Arab youth. this year’s World Cup whether it the tournament. Mo- the knockout stages. Milan Saudi Arabia is marking its return was chosen over a joint United hamed Salah leads the Expectations are high, especially to the World Cup after a 12-year ab- States/Canada/Mexico bid to team into the tourna- considering Salah’s success this he FIFA World Cup this sum- sence. The Saudis have sought to host the tournament in 2026. ment after a phenom- year. His popularity is so widespread mer for the first time will bolster their chances at success in Tunisia is making its fourth enal year with Liver- in Egypt his face can be seen adorn- feature four teams from the Russia by striking a deal with Spain’s World Cup appearance and first pool in which he scored ing walls around Cairo and he was T Arab world. Egypt, Morocco, top flight La Liga, sending nine Sau- since 2006. Youssef Msakni is the 42 goals in 48 matches. the runner-up in the Egyptian presi- Saudi Arabia and Tunisia all quali- di players on loan to clubs in Spain. star player after scoring a hat- Salah’s performances in dential election with more than 1 fied for the 32-team tournament, set The Moroccans are led by Juven- trick against Guinea in qualify- Europe have made Egypt million write-in votes — despite not for June 14-July 15 in Russia. tus’s Mehdi Benatia, who was born ing. Msakni, however, will miss a favourite of the tourna- running. The qualification of four teams in France but chose to represent the World Cup due to injury. ment, too. Add to that a means the eyes of the world will the country of his parents. Moroc- “We’re very happy to have done strong contingent play- Justin Salhani is an Arab Weekly be on the Arab region through the co qualified without conceding a the people of Tunisia proud by ing in leagues across contributor in Milan, Italy. performance of athletes and not single goal and citizens are hoping qualifying,” Tunisian striker Wah- Europe — including sev- through negative stereotypes. Im- the squad will unite to make their bi Khazri told the FIFA website. en in England such as P22 2 May 27, 2018 News & Analysis Pompeo’s Iran Speech Pompeo draws a hard-line list of demands from Iran but experts sceptical about compliance

Thomas Frank realistic pathway to achieving them,” Maloney wrote. “It’s magi- cal thinking to suggest that after Washington 40 years and at the apex of its re- gional reach, the Islamic Republic S Secretary of State Mike will proffer a blanket capitulation Pompeo has issued a lita- in exchange for the promise of a ny of demands on Iran to future treaty with a government U escape American punish- that has just jettisoned an existing ment but, as admirable as the list agreement.” may be, there is almost no chance Conservative analyst James Ca- Tehran will comply, analysts said. rafano was more succinct about In an aggressive address May Pompeo’s speech. Asked by a Fox 21, Pompeo vowed to “crush” Ira- News host whether Iran would take nian operatives around the world any of the dozen steps Pompeo de- and demanded a dozen “major manded, Carafano replied: “Heck, changes” aimed at turning Iran n o .” from a regional military power into “This is literally a diplomatic a peaceful neighbour that sits on body slam,” said Carafano, a for- the sidelines of regional conflicts. eign policy analyst at the conserv- Pompeo acknowledged his list was ative Heritage Foundation, where “pretty long.” Pompeo delivered his address. In Washington, the demands “This is actually a counterpunch were widely criticised as unrealis- strategy [in which] we’re actually tic by both liberals and conserva- going in and knocking out pins tives. Members of Congress had under what makes Iran a regional little public reaction. power.” “He was articulating complaints Two analysts said Pompeo and demands and that’s not pol- achieved an “intellectual break- icy,” said Barbara Slavin, director through” by recognising that of the Future of Iran Initiative at Washington cannot negotiate a the Atlantic Council think-tank. nuclear accord without addressing US President Donald Trump’s Iran’s other threats. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear “He identified the problem: A re- agreement leaves the United States gime that is bent on extending its “less well-placed to exert pressure imperial frontiers, developing nu- on Iran than we were a few years clear arms and abusing its citizens. ago,” she said. All of these issues are connected, Maximum pressure. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers remarks on the Trump as the guardians of the theoc- administration’s Iran policy in Washington, on May 21. (Reuters) racy believe that their revolution Although Pompeo did succeeds only if it is relentlessly not call directly for exported,” wrote Ray Takeyh, a they were “compounded by enor- its programme to develop ballistic United States adopted towards the regime change in Iran, he former State Department Iran ad- mous corruption.” missiles; ending its support of Mid- Soviet Union in the Cold War.” made it clear that new viser, and Mark Dubowitz, who Noting that Supreme Leader dle East militant groups, including The strategy of new sanctions to leadership was his goal. has advised several US presidents Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthi weaken Iran’s economy is not like- on Iran. 78, “will not live forever,” Pompeo rebels in Yemen; withdrawing ly to lead to regime change, Tama- Pompeo signalled that the In a column in Foreign Policy added: “Nor will the Iranian peo- Iran-controlled forces in Syria; and ra Cofman Wittes, a senior fellow Trump administration’s policy to- magazine, Takeyh and Dubowitz ple abide the rule of tyrants for- ending “threatening behaviour” at the Centre for Middle East Policy wards Iran will be to foment po- praised Pompeo for outlining steps ever.” Speaking directly to Iranian against neighbours, including Is- at the liberal Brookings Institution, litical unrest to prompt regime “to deplete Iran’s treasury, bol- citizens, he criticised Iranian Presi- rael, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab said at the hearing. change but Slavin said the strategy ster local alliances and assist the dent Hassan Rohani and Foreign Emirates and international ship- “The weaker the government “leads to more misery and resent- Iranian people in their persistent Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif — ping lanes. revenue stream becomes and the ment and not regime change.” quest to emancipate themselves two men seen as moderates seek- At a hearing in the US Congress more domestic pressure it faces, Echoing the criticism, former from the clutches of the clerical ing to open Iran to the world — as a day after the speech, Michael the more powerful the IRGC will State Department Iran adviser Su- tyranny.” being responsible “for your eco- Doran, an analyst at the conserva- become as the regime’s last line zanne Maloney, in a posting on Although Pompeo did not call nomic struggles.” tive Hudson Institute, said: “Iran of defence against domestic dis- the Brookings Institution website, directly for regime change in Iran, In Washington, the focus was on will not take these steps willingly. sent as well as external enemies,” said Pompeo’s address was “not a he made it clear that new leader- the 12 demands made by Pompeo Truth be told, the day it complies she said, referring to the Islamic strategy at all but rather a grab bag ship was his goal. Pompeo vowed for the United States to ease sanc- with all of them will be the day Revolutionary Guard Corps, which of wishful thinking wrapped in a to impose “the strongest sanc- tions and resume diplomatic and after the Islamic Republic ceases protects Tehran’s Islamic Republic thinly veiled exhortation for re- tions in history” that would leave economic relations with Tehran. to exist.” Doran said the Trump system. gime change in Iran.” Iran “battling to keep its economy The steps include providing nu- administration’s policy was one In demanding major changes alive.” He highlighted Iran’s ongo- clear inspectors “unqualified ac- of “long-term, aggressive contain- Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly from Iran, Pompeo “offered no ing economic problems and said cess” to every nuclear plant; ending ment, not unlike the policy the correspondent in Washington.

Viewpoint Can Trump’s Iran policy lead to regime change in Tehran?

S President Donald regime, adding the promise that programme and military presence cannot rule out countrywide anti- Trump’s Iran policy the United States would wait it out. in the Middle East. regime demonstrations. However, could change the He said: “At the end of the day, the It must commit itself to buying it is hard to believe that the IRGC is Ali Alfoneh regime in Tehran but Iranian people will get to make a Iranian oil, even in the face of US ready to give in to public pressure. not necessarily in choice about their leadership. If sanctions. It should guarantee The lack of a clear alternative to the way Washington they make the decision quickly, economic transactions with Iran. the regime makes a transfer of Uenvisions. Rather than causing that would be wonderful. If they There is more. If the European power, as in the 1979 revolution, the regime to collapse, reimposing choose not to do so, we will stay Union does not agree to all the very difficult. sanctions could weaken civilian hard at this until we achieve the demands, the supreme leader Second, if the regime deals political institutions in Iran and outcomes that I set forward today.” indicated that Iran would reserve with rising public dissatisfaction accelerate its transformation into Unsurprisingly, the Trump the right to “prepare” for high by mobilising the IRGC and the a military dictatorship led by the administration’s Iran policy was enrichment of uranium. Basij militia, one of the IRGC’s five Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps read exactly as intended by the Of course, the European Union forces, the outcome could be very (IRGC). regime in Tehran. Iranian Supreme is not likely to provide any such different. Sections of the regime The implications of US Secretary Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “guarantees” to Khamenei. may use the opportunity to seize of State Mike Pompeo’s first major accused the United States of trying Guarantees would jeopardise total control, eliminate the last foreign policy speech were clear, “to overthrow the regime from day relations between individual EU pockets of civilian resistance and however. On May 21 at the Heritage one [of the revolution]… but their members and Washington. The turn Iran into something that can Foundation, a conservative think- stratagem did not work.” Europeans have more interest in only be described as a military tank in Washington, Pompeo He said the United States preserving transatlantic relations dictatorship. unveiled more than a new Iran grows “bolder” in the face of any than in the relatively small Iranian In other words, Trump and policy. For all practical purposes, “softness” while Iran’s “resilience” market. Pompeo may get what they want the speech signified Washington’s forces Washington to “withdraw.” That said, it’s not simple to — regime change in Tehran — but preference for a new regime in Khamenei demanded guarantees predict the future. There are two it may not be quite what they Tehran. from European powers in return likely scenarios for Iran if the expected. If the IRGC seizes power Trump and Pompeo If that was not apparent from for Iran’s continued commitment United States pursues a regime and purges the clerical leadership, may get what they Pompeo’s 12 demands, which to the nuclear agreement. change policy by means of the regime will have changed but want — regime covered Iran’s nuclear activities, He wants the Europeans to economic sanctions and European not in the way Washington may ballistic missile programme, condemn US violation of UN attempts to rescue the Iran nuclear have wanted. change in regional military presence and Security Council Resolution deal prove futile. Tehran — but it may ambitions, it became clear from his 2231. The European Union must First, increased public Ali Alfoneh is a non-resident concluding remarks. guarantee to resist US sanctions dissatisfaction with the regime senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri not be quite what Pompeo appeared to urge the against Iran and will not raise may exacerbate tensions between Centre for the Middle East at the they expected. Iranian people to rebel against the issues such as Iran’s missile state and society in Iran. One Atlantic Council. May 27, 2018 3 Debate Iraq Al-Sadr’s strong electoral showing puts US in quandary

lowers in a coalition government may not be all that bad from Wash- Gregory ington’s perspective. Iran is clearly Aftandilian upset that the electoral blocs of Amiri and Maliki did not do better in the elections and report- he strong showing by edly sent Major-General Qassem Muqtada al-Sadr’s coali- Soleimani, leader of Iran’s al-Quds tion, called the Sairoon Force, to Iraq to engage with the bloc, which won the Shia politicians to ensure that al- plurality of votes in Sadr’s bloc is not part of any ruling Iraq’s parliamentary coalition. Telections, is causing heartburn in Should Abadi and al-Sadr form Washington, though his anti-Iran a coalition with Sunni and Kurd- stance is mitigating the concern. ish parties, as well as a minor Most of that heartache comes Shia party that is not beholden to from memories of the years after Iran, they could conceivably have the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq enough parliamentary support to when al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army battled form a government. The price of US troops in Baghdad and southern retaining al-Sadr’s loyalty, how- Iraq, causing hundreds of Ameri- ever, may be for Abadi’s bloc to can casualties. At the time, al-Sadr, abandon support for the Strategic the son of a famous Iraqi Shia Framework Agreement. theologian executed by Saddam US military commanders see Hussein’s regime, was supported substantial improvements in the by Iran, which wanted to see US Iraqi Army since the dark year troops removed from Iraq and of 2014 when it collapsed in the Shias in charge of the new Iraq. face of ISIS victories but say the Al-Sadr’s loyalists were involved training mission has a way to go. in sectarian bloodshed in Iraq Hence, to leave Iraq prematurely that ravaged the country and took would hinder that mission and thousands of lives after the 2006 Post-election wrangling. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi (L) meets with Shia cleric Muqtada put the United States in a position bombing of a famous Shia mosque al-Sadr in the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, on May 20. ( Iraqi Government) in which it might have to return in Samarra by al-Qaeda. to Iraq if another extremist group Al-Sadr, however, has gone Alliance claimed 42 seats and Vice- have their voices heard. However, emerges. through a political transformation, President Nuri al-Maliki’s State of the statement also emphasised the It should be remembered that US concentrating on anti-corruption Law coalition took 25. importance of the US-Iraqi partner- President Donald Trump, though and leading demonstrations in US policymakers were clearly ship based on the Strategic Frame- highly critical of the Iraq war Baghdad’s Green Zone, where the hoping Abadi would win handily work Agreement, which provides during his presidential campaign, Iraqi government is ensconced; because US diplomatic and military for US forces to remain in Iraq. sharply criticised former US Presi- making alliances with secular Ira- personnel developed close ties It is unclear how the post-elec- dent Barack Obama for pulling US qis, including communists; souring with him in the fight to defeat the tion wrangling will end up as a new troops out of Iraq and leaving a on Iran and reaching out to Arab Islamic State (ISIS). Abadi did not government needs the support power vacuum that ISIS exploited. Sunni governments, Saudi Arabia seem to object to US forces, which of at least 165 parliamentarians An optimistic scenario from among them. number about 5,200 in the country, out of 329 to function. The United Washington’s perspective would be This has proven a clever electoral staying in Iraq to train the Iraqi States is hoping that: 1) the Stra- if Abadi retains the prime minister strategy by suggesting he was an Army and ensure that ISIS or like- tegic Framework Agreement will position, the coalition he assem- Iraqi nationalist, first and foremost, minded groups would not emerge. continue; and 2) Iranian influence bles remains wary of Iranian influ- concerned about the need for clean Al-Sadr, on the other hand, has will be minimised to the extent ence in Iraq and al-Sadr accepts the government and the provision of consistently called for all foreign possible. Strategic Framework Agreement. services. In the recent parliamen- forces, including US troops, to US policymakers, including those These are a lot of “ifs” for a tary elections, his alliance won 54 leave Iraq, maintaining that they with combat experience in Iraq, still-fractured country that has seats, followed by Hadi al-Amiri, a represent an “occupation” and that have been circumspect so as not to enormous political and economic leader of the mostly Shia Popular Iraq’s security should be in the prejudice the government forma- problems on its plate. It is not clear Mobilisation Forces whose Al-Fatih hands of Iraqis. tion. US Defence Secretary James whether the United States has bloc won 47 seats. Iraqi Prime The retention of US troops has Mattis, whose US Marines fought enough clout to affect the outcome Minister Haider al-Abadi’s Victory factored into the Trump adminis- the Mahdi Army in 2004-05, stated of the government-formation tration’s thinking on the results of diplomatically: “The Iraqi people process. the Iraqi elections. The US State had an election… We will wait and The price of retaining al-Sadr’s Department on May 12 issued a see the results, the final results, of Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer loyalty may be for Abadi’s bloc to statement that congratulated the the election but we stand with the in the Pardee School of Global Iraqi people for having elections Iraqi people’s decision.” Studies at Boston University and abandon support for the Strategic that allowed citizens representing Given al-Sadr’s opposition to a former US State Department Framework Agreement. all sectarian and ethnic groups to Iran’s role in Iraq, having his fol- Middle East analyst. Iraqis will regret some of their own doings but it’ll be too late

occupying US forces dared not do ceded him to eternity. As a proud because of international law, some soldier of Iraq, he never considered Iraqis were more than happy to do his heroism as his own private Farouk Yousef on their behalf. These Iraqis would property. have never dreamed of occupying It was shameful of the Iraqi gov- authority positions were it not for ernment to keep Rawi, Ahmad and yad Futayyih al-Rawi the joint US and British occupation many other military and political was a staff general in of Iraq. figures whom Iran failed to assas- the Iraqi Army. He was They have, over time, given am- sinate in detention all this time. an honourable soldier, ple proof of their opportunism and We all know that the Badr Brigade, devoted to serving his hypocrisy and done an excellent job Iran’s agent in Iraq, was responsible country and defending of making revenge the archetypal for eliminating many of Iraq’s fin- itsA sovereignty. He had a stellar mil- modus operandi of the new Iraq. est doctors, engineers, historians, itary career making him an exem- Their Iranian masters must have archaeologists, philosophers, pilots plary figure in the history of mod- been very happy with them. and scientists. ern Iraq. He was the type of person Rawi was tried for a crime any Rawi was a military leader during who all Iraqis can and ought to be true Iraqi patriot would be very a difficult period in Iraq’s history. proud of — a tireless and generous proud to bear. The general was He carried out his duty conscien- officer working in the background a highly decorated soldier in the tiously and generously, adding far from the limelight and refusing 8-year war against Iran. Rawi and another bright page to Iraq’s hon- media notoriety despite his great former Iraqi Defence Minister our, something that the vassals of sacrifices and contributions. Sultan Hashim Ahmad were among the grand Iranian mullah can never All Iraqis can rightfully be proud the most wanted and their place on understand. of Rawi but he died May 18, alone that list was a gift to Iran. Rawi’s Iraq was proud and tena- in his prison cell. Rawi was ar- The arrest and imprisonment of ciously keen on its sovereignty and rested in June 2003 when invading the Iraqi leadership following the its unity. That Iraq was precisely US forces used the infamous 55 US-led invasion of Iraq was a war the enemy that had to be wiped out most-wanted Iraqi playing cards to crime. During the occupation, the before the Iraqi Dawa Party could kidnap the legitimate Iraqi leader- Iraqis were not permitted to have clamp its claws on the country ship. Those playing cards represent any say in what the occupying and deliver the unfortunate Iraqi the highest insult to the dignity and forces were doing in the country people to the absolute power of the history of the Iraqi nation and yet but when the Iraqi government grand mullah. many Iraqis turned a blind eye on carried on with the crime even after Former staff general in the Iraqi Army Ayad In the final analysis, Rawi the demeaning operation. the occupation formally ended in Futayyih al-Rawi. (Wikipedia) fulfilled his duty as a soldier and During that period, whatever the 2011, it simply showed that that honoured his country. His fellow government cannot be trusted Iraqi citizens will someday bear because it looked at Iraq through an ni’s expansionist project. They great regrets but it must be said Ayad Futayyih al-Rawi was a Iranian lens. were heroes to their last breath that these regrets will be of their Rawi and Ahmad were icons of despite having been subjected to own doing. military leader during a difficult Iraq’s refusal of former Iranian the worst trials. Rawi died a hero period in Iraq’s history. Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomei- in his prison cell. His heroism pre- Farouk Yousef is an Iraqi writer. 4 May 27, 2018 News & Analysis Syria Cracks start to show in Syria’s unlikely alliances

Simon Speakman Cordall Trying to defuse tensions between the regime’s two principal allies, Syria’s deputy foreign minister was Tunis quoted by Agence France-Presse as saying said the departure of Iranian s the Syrian civil war enters forces and Hezbollah was “not even what many hope are its fi- on the agenda for discussion.” nal chapters, cracks have Despite the rhetoric, few expect A begun to emerge in the in- a long-lasting rift between Rus- ternational alliance that reclaimed sia and Iran. Nevertheless, Putin’s much of Syria for Bashar Assad and comments, unlikely to have been his Damascus regime. chosen carelessly, focused attention Russia and Iran played critical on the very different war aims Mos- roles in reaching this stage. After its cow and Tehran have as well as their decisive entry into the Syrian con- contrasting reasons for backing the flict in 2015, Moscow, along with Assad regime. Russia is seeking to Hezbollah plus a variety of Syrian project power into new arenas but and Iranian militias, turned the tide Tehran’s motivations are less prag- of the war, wresting Assad from near matic. certain defeat and helping Damas- “It is no secret that Russia does cus impose something like sover- not want Iran and, by extension eignty over Syria’s anarchy. Hezbollah, to initiate a war with Is- With the Kremlin providing the rael that would threaten the stabil- weaponry and the airpower, the re- ity of the Assad regime,” Nicholas gime and its allies in Tehran, despite Heras, Middle East security fellow massive casualties, provided the at the Centre for a New American critical ground power that brutally Secu­rity, said. checked the ambitions of the rebel Russia has a long-standing rela- militias that had come perilously tionship with the Israelis, whose close to toppling Assad. defensiveness over Iran’s and Hez- bollah’s presence in Syria brought the region to the brink of war just Despite the rhetoric, few weeks ago. expect a long-lasting rift “Russia has been very clear all between Russia and Iran. along that it has a different relation- ship with Israel than Iran, and that it Though the successes of the al- is not willing to sacrifice a long-term liance are beyond doubt, its future economic relationship with Israel is less clear. Following a meeting at the altar of Iran’s Islamic revolu- Tricky alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rohani tion and strategic competition with May 17 in Russia, Russian President arrive for a joint news conference after their meeting in Ankara, last April. (Reuters) Vladimir Putin appeared keen to Israel,” Heras said. stress the importance of all military However, though removing both the RAND Corporation, said by tel­ but then didn’t help rebuild it. This cow hopes to establish air and naval forces, excluding his own, with- Shia Hezbollah and Iran from the ephone. “Moscow seeks close ties will require substantial Western aid bases in Syria. drawing from Syria following any Syrian theatre may appear to make with Iran in part because it will take but with fighting in Syria still under Iran, however, “wants a protec- political settlement. short term political sense for Mos- Russian weapons that, unlike Syria, way and Iran’s security role on the torate,” Courtney said. “Tehran is Iranian outrage followed, with cow, not least in that it may draw it can actually pay for.” ground, the West sees Syria as too aware of the risks in antagonising Damascus at pains to pour oil on some of the religious venom from Courtney, turning to Russia’s dangerous for reconstruction.” Israel as it works towards that but the waters Moscow had troubled. the Sunni rebel fangs, the Kremlin long-term aspirations to remain a Beyond the short-term military is committed to controlling a belt of Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman has equally sound economic rea- presence within the country, said: and financial gains of their alliance power extending westward through Bahram Qasimi, apparently speak- sons for wanting Iran to remain, at “There is also the cost of Syria’s re- stand incompatible war aims. Mos- Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah in Leba- ing for his country’s forces and Hez- least for now. construction to consider, which is cow hopes hostilities can be ended non.” bollah, on May 20, said: “No one can “Obviously keeping Iran in the magnified by every bombing. The through a political process, even if force Iran to do anything and Iran war helps put the West off bal- Russians don’t want the Syrian peo- that involves a federal Syria. While Simon Speakman Cordall is will remain in Syria as long as Syrian ance,” former US Ambassador Wil- ple to see them as a foreign power there are likely many reasons for Syria/Lebanon section editor demand persists.” liam Courtney, a senior fellow at that helped destroy their country that, the principal one is that Mos- with The Arab Weekly.

Viewpoint Targeting the misery of Syria’s refugees with intellectual bigotry

ar often brings delicate sectarian balance. out the foulest Ironically, Khalil’s narrative fails and ugliest traits to remind these naturalisation- Makram Rabah in people. Oddly, phobic individuals how the the most heinous Lebanese government used these of atrocities tran- 1.5 million souls to solicit funds and Wscend the battlefield because they donations at the recent conference target civilian populations, mainly in Paris. It also fails to acknowledge helpless women and children. The that Lebanon’s economic calamity Syrian conflict is no different in this is caused by corrupt and inept respect. governments rather than the Since the onset of the Syrian civil refugee crisis. war seven years ago, the Syrian Khalil’s song makes fun of people have been subjugated Syrian refugees’ high fertility rate, to various forms and levels of suggesting they are uncivilised, violence, ranging from free-falling driven by carnal instincts and barrel bombs to chemical weapons unworthy of being treated as to — perhaps worst of all — forced equals. Interestingly, throughout immigration and uprooting people the Lebanese civil war, the ultra- from their homes. Lebanese nationalists used the Yet, for the 5 million Syrian same bigoted rhetoric against refugees who fled to neighbouring Hanging by a thread. Syrian workers paint a fence to designate Lebanese Muslims to justify countries and beyond, violence the area of a private beach off the Corniche in Beirut. (AP) their demands to partition the takes on many more forms country and to block the legitimate once they leave. This includes demands of their fellow Muslims xenophobic attacks in their Lebanese have been transformed against foreigners but also against who were merely seeking parity. host country, which make their into guests inside their own his fellow Lebanese, specifically in When all is said and done, exile even more distressing and country. the Muslim community. Khalil’s song is a reminder to all tragic. Lebanon has led the way Interestingly, elements in Khalil’s irresponsible yet Lebanese who allow such a culture with bigoted attacks against the Khalil’s comic song reflect parts calculated slurs have not always of bigotry and prejudice to grow 1.5 million Syrian refugees in of the truth in Lebanon, with its 4 gone unnoticed. Some have fuelled that they could be the next group to its territories. A satirical song million nationals and crumbling popular protests and inflamed be targeted. True civility is refusing ridiculing refugees is a case in infrastructure struggles with its nationwide sectarian tensions. It to celebrate and ridicule the misery point. refugee community. This was is no fluke that Khalil’s recent song of the Syrians, who after escaping The song appeared as part of what Khalil reiterated after he was was released just before Lebanese exploding barrel bombs, are now What is more a weekly satirical show on Al accused of propagating hatred. He parliamentary elections. met with barrel bomb intellectuals Jadeed TV, written and produced stressed that his song was political Khalil wishes to use Syrian like Khalil. He is a reminder that alarming about by Charbel Khalil. The song, satire, underscoring a crisis that refugees as a scarecrow to muster war criminals come in all forms and Khalil’s bigoted which features a traditional Dabke needs to be addressed by the state up votes of a certain segment of the sizes. performance, warns that Syrians and the international community. Lebanese populace, the majority of song is that it is with their increasing numbers Be that as it may, what is more whom are Christians and supportive Makram Rabah is a lecturer part of a larger have taken over all aspects of alarming about Khalil’s bigoted of Lebanese President Michel at the American University of pattern of the Lebanese economy, either by song is that it is part of a larger Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement. Beirut and author of “A Campus stealing basic jobs (taxi drivers, pattern of hateful sectarian They are beyond convinced that at War: Student Politics at the hateful sectarian doormen) or through procreation. messages. In many of his works, Syria’s Muslim refugees will be American University of Beirut, messages. Ultimately, the song says, the Khalil not only promotes bigotry naturalised and break the country’s 1967-1975.” May 27, 2018 5 News & Analysis Lebanon

Interview Leading media figure Paula Yacoubian, a new face in Lebanon’s parliament

channel owned by Lebanese Yacoubian to contemplate a Prime Minister Saad Hariri where political career was the country’s she had hosted a political talk garbage crisis in 2015 when Samar Kadi show for more than a decade. She Beirut’s main landfill shut down joined Sabaa, a newly formed after running beyond its expira- non-sectarian political alliance of tion date. That sparked a protest Beirut candidates drawn from civil movement that criticised politi- society. cians over their inability to resolve or years as a member Yacoubian grabbed an Armenian the issue. of the media, Paula Orthodox seat in the newly elected “When the garbage crisis Yacoubian raised parliament, running on a list started and they reopened Bourj issues of public known as Kulluna Watani, Hammoud dump, I was filming in Independent voice. Journalist-turned-MP Paula Yacoubian. concern, champi- representing a coalition of civil the area and I remember the smell (Paula Yacoubian campaign office) oned national society groups. She is among six was unbearable and flies were causes, exposed women lawmakers — but the only everywhere. I thought it is no government failures candidate from outside the longer acceptable that we sit idle, found lots of common ground and no one is willing to take responsi- Fand interviewed politicians on traditional political class — to have just curse and feel sorry for this is how it started.” bility for that. No one is willing to their performance and deeds. won a seat in the May 6 elec- ourselves but we should act,” “It was still bearable when the retire. They all want to stay in After her election to Lebanon’s tions. Yacoubian said. corruption of political leaders was power.” parliament, the journalist-turned- Though it was uncertain, her “It was then that I realised that bankrupting the country but, As an independent MP, MP said she is determined to victory came as a positive our voice through the media is not today, we have an environmental Yacoubian said she would not be continue her struggle for the change. making a difference. Regardless catastrophe, corruption is killing part of any parliament bloc. “good causes” from within the “Stat and survey companies of how much we talked and us, our health is at stake. Every “Which bloc can I join?” she political establishment. kept telling me that I would not criticised it was not having an person in this country should act asked. “None. Bloc members Yacoubian, 42, said she thought win but I could feel that the pulse impact. So I thought that maybe I in some way, be a political activist always follow the directives of the she could do more for her country of the street was in my favour. I should try to initiate some change because the country is in such a bloc leader. I may be closer to as a politician. have worked hard on my credibil- from inside. I was approached by bad shape and needs us,” the certain blocs on certain issues — I “I have been talking repeatedly ity and I will maintain it at any activists from the civil society. We descendant of Armenian genocide can lobby with the various blocs and for many years in the media cost,” Yacoubian said. survivors and mother of a on specific topics — but not be about our chronic problems but “I represent the people who 13-year-old boy said. part of them.” no one would listen,” Yacoubian voted for me. The people who are The journalist- Despite being a political host on Shifting from journalism to said in an interview with The tired and fed up with the current Future TV, the mouthpiece of politics is a decision that Arab Weekly. “I feel that by situation, which can’t be worse, turned-MP Paula Hariri’s party, Yacoubian never Yacoubian said she won’t regret. moving into the political arena, I and with the politicians who rely Yacoubian is joined a political party. “I did so many years in the can get into more serious work, on fearmongering to rally the “I never wanted to join any of media raising awareness about because (being an MP) gives me support of their electorates. determined to the traditional groups,” she said. important issues and engaging immunity and puts me in a better “For decades people have been continue her “I decided to work with people with activists. Now I will seek to position where I could be more protesting and demanding struggle for the who were never in power and who work through parliament and by heard and I can stand for rightful change, but without results. I am cannot be held responsible for the means of legislation,” she said. causes.” determined to make the experi- “good causes” from failures of the political class and One of Lebanon’s leading media ence of the civil society in power a within the political the situation we have reached. Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly personalities, Yacoubian resigned successful one.” “We have become the most Travel and Society section in January from Future TV, the The trigger that prompted establishment. polluted country in the world and editor. Elections and sanctions augur difficult new era for Lebanese politics

Nicholas Blanford geopolitics of the Levant is in a rapid allies are expected to receive a lion’s state of flux,” said Aram Nerguizian, share of the cabinet in a reflection of CEO of the Mortons Group, a strate- their electoral gains. Washington gic consultancy in Washington. The successful outcome for Hez- “Continued access and influence bollah and its allies at the elections n May 6, Lebanon had its with the LAF (Lebanese armed was something of a double-edged first elections in nine years forces) means that the US remains sword. While Hezbollah and al- with Hezbollah and its al- critical to the balance of power in lied parties increased their share in O lies faring well and securing Lebanon, while also denying geo- parliament, that also helped create a small majority in the 128-seat par- political space to countries like Rus- the impression internationally that liament. Two days later, US Presi- sia that would be more than happy Lebanon had taken another step dent Donald Trump announced that to see the US-LAF relationship dis- deeper into the embrace of Iran and Washington was withdrawing from rupted.” that Hezbollah was more secure do- the Iran nuclear deal and would re- The US Department of Defence mestically than ever. impose sanctions against Tehran as supports a continuation of the pro- well as introduce new penalties. gramme but recent changes in the The convergence of these de- Trump administration, which saw Critics say that the Lebanese velopments could spell difficulties the arrival of hawks John Bolton Army has done nothing to for Lebanon. Hezbollah, which has as national security adviser and disarm Hezbollah and some emerged as Iran’s greatest enabler Pompeo at the State Department, maintain that the army and in projecting power across the Mid- could leave Defence Secretary the Iran-backed party are in dle East, is firmly in the sights of the James Mattis, well known for his Trump administration’s tough new support for the Lebanese Army, in a collusion. stance towards Tehran. That could weakened position. lead to a widening of sanctions The fly in the soup. Hezbollah supporters hold pictures of the Sources close to the White House That is why, even though Hez- against individuals and entities con- group’s secretary-general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah said there was an attempt to build a bollah did not nominate Hariri for nected to Hezbollah, raise questions commander Mustafa Badreddine, who was killed in an attack in more homogeneous team in the ad- prime minister (Hezbollah chose over the continuation of the US mili- Syria. (Reuters) ministration of people with shared not to recommend anyone for the tary assistance programme to the robust views on Iran as a precursor post), the party is satisfied to have Lebanese Army and pressure the assistance to Lebanon. several hundred Islamic State mili- to implementing tough new policy Hariri return as prime minister be- Lebanese banking sector. “We need a review… to make sure tants from their mountainous re- on Tehran and its regional allies, cause he can provide a degree of Congressional sources in Wash- that we’re using American tax dol- doubt in north-eastern Lebanon. such as Hezbollah and Hamas. cover given his good standing with ington said that anti-Hezbollah leg- lars right in supporting the groups However, critics say the Lebanese Saad Hariri has been reappointed the West. islation, known as HIFPA II, which that can most likely achieve our out- Army has done nothing to disarm as prime minister-designate of Leb- Nevertheless, as Hariri grapples tightens the Hezbollah International come there [in Lebanon],” he said. Hezbollah and some maintain that anon after receiving the support of with promised economic and fiscal Financing Prevention Act of 2015, The United States has handed the military and the Iran-backed 111 MPs. He will now begin the usu- reforms, which will unlock around looks to be adopted in early July. The more than $1.7 billion in military party are in collusion. Israeli offi- ally fractious task of assembling a $11 billion of donor aid promised act expands the list of people and aid to Lebanon since 2006, making cials have maintained that, in the new government. in Paris for infrastructure develop- entities that could be sanctioned for the tiny Mediterranean country the event of another war with Hezbol- In the past, government forma- ment, he will have to work hard to providing support to Hezbollah and world’s fifth largest per capita recip- lah, Israel will treat the Lebanese tion has sometimes taken months, reassure the Trump administration seeks increased reporting on the ient of US military assistance. The state, including its army, as the en- particularly during the height of the that Lebanon is not a lost cause and party’s financial activities. provision of new equipment and emy, not just Hezbollah. political divide in Lebanon between to spare the country from what- Since Trump’s decision to walk training has greatly boosted the ca- However, a substantial draw- two rival parliamentary coalitions. ever punitive measures Washing- away from the Iran deal, the US pabilities of the Lebanese Army and down of the military assistance That schism has largely subsided in ton takes in its broader campaign Treasury has slapped a raft of sanc- turned it into a valued partner force programme or its cancellation will the past 18 months, which should against Iran. tions on top Hezbollah leaders and for the US military, analysts said. backfire on US interests in the Le- ease the process of establishing a Iranian officials and organisations. Last August, the Lebanese Army vant, analysts said. new government. Nicholas Blanford is the author On May 23, Mike Pompeo, in his used US-supplied precision muni- “Not having a military relation- Nevertheless, there will be the of “Warriors of God: Inside first official appearance before Con- tions and intelligence, surveillance ship in Lebanon is the equivalent of usual horse-trading, which could Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle gress as secretary of state, called and reconnaissance assets in a brief the US relegating itself to non-player last weeks, over who wins what Against Israel” (Random House for a reconsideration of US military and successful campaign to oust status in Lebanon at a time when the cabinet portfolio. Hezbollah and its 2011). 6 May 27, 2018 Opinion

Editorial Iran’s proxy activities are dangerous

espite everything, Iran and its proxies continue their aggressive move to expand Tehran’s reach across the region. On May 23, Iran’s Houthi allies tried, but failed, to attack oil tankers in the Red Sea using Dexplosives-laden speedboats. Clearly, Iran fancies itself a regional hegemon and wants free rein on its proxies’ activities in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere but it must reckon with an ever-louder international rejection of its activities. On May 21, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States would take “all necessary steps to confront and address Iran’s malign influence in the region.” “Iran will never again have carte blanche to dominate the Middle East,” he added. Pompeo’s statement came just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had just met with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Sochi, declared that the way forward for Syria lay in the withdrawal of “foreign armed forces… from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic.” The Russian president’s chief Syria negotiator, Alexander Lavrentiev, was more explicit. “We are talking about all the foreign troop divisions that © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly still have troops in Syrian territory,” Lavrentiev said. “That includes the Americans and the Turks and Hezbollah, of course, and the Iranians.” Unsurprisingly, this caused considerable No choice for Iran but to accept consternation in Tehran but, for all the subse- quent Russian spin, the game is clearly up. On May 22, UN Secretary-General Antonio the new rules of the game Guterres called out the pro-Iranian Hezbollah as a “destabilising” factor in Lebanon and Syria. In his report to the UN Security Council on the imple- Khairallah Khairallah mentation of the 2004 UN resolution ordering all Every day, new economic sanctions against Iran see the light, targeting Lebanese militias to disarm, Guterres said Hezbollah should end military activities in Iranian officials and institutions and even Iranian proxies. Lebanon and elsewhere. He called on “countries in the region that maintain close ties with Hezbol- n its poker game with the Netanyahu as a guest of honour placing Mikhail Gorbachev at the lah to encourage the transformation of the armed Trump administration, Iran is at the Victory Day celebrations in helm, it was too late. group into a solely civilian political party and its trying to play its ace: Europe. Moscow. As both leaders enjoyed There are many indications that disarmament.” Poor Iran, however, has very the parade, Israeli warplanes were Iran’s strategy is rather old. That Iranian proxies’ actions destabilise and endan- little room for manoeuvring bombing Iranian targets in Syria in strategy was good enough for the ger the region. They must cease if we are to avoid in this tight game. If it comes retaliation for missiles launched Obama era. The Obama adminis- an escalation with unpredictable consequences. Idown to choosing between Iran on the occupied Golan Heights. tration reduced the Middle East’s and the United States, Europe will As if that was not humilia- problems to Iran’s nuclear pro- Ramadan is a moment of side with Washington. tion enough to Iran, Russia also gramme and set out to correct that integration, not exclusion So the Trump administration decided to scrap the S-300 missile with the nuclear deal. Even during decided to withdraw from the Iran deal with Syria. the George W. Bush administra- ardly had the Muslim holy month nuclear deal, which US President How efficient these missiles tion, Iran was smart enough to of Ramadan begun that a Danish Donald Trump claimed was the could have been against Israel’s jockey for the lion’s share of the minister issued a regrettable call worst agreement ever. Washing- very sophisticated warplanes we political spoils of the Iraq war. for fasting Muslims to be excluded ton, however, did not close the will not have a chance to find out. Today, however, there is a new from the workplace. door on negotiations for a new More important, is Syria capable of sheriff in town and the rules of the Ironically, Inger Stoejberg is the deal free of the weaknesses of the settling the bill for the S-300 mis- game have changed. America has minister in charge of the integra- 2015 one. sile system? The Russians must changed and the Arab world has Htion portfolio as well as immigration. Ramadan is Unlike the United States, Europe have feared that the confronta- changed. A new Saudi Arabia is an ideal time for Stoejberg to show commitment is all for maintaining the current tion with Israel might reveal the taking the lead in reining in Iran’s to integration. Ramadan is ideally suited to interfaith dialogue. deal as the basis for new nego- backwardness of Russian weapons expansionism in the Arab world That didn’t seem to cross Stoejberg’s mind. tiations aimed at amending the in comparison to the US-made and the Gulf region. Operation Instead, she wrote in a tabloid newspaper: “I want agreement to reach additional weapons of the Israeli military. Decisive Storm — the Saudi-led to call on Muslims to take leave from work during goals besides stopping Iran’s nu- When the French oil giant Total intervention in Yemen — was just the month of Ramadan to avoid negative conse- clear programme. The first goal is withdraws from a project in Iran the beginning of the end of Iran’s quences for the rest of Danish society.” related to Iran’s behaviour at the or when a major Danish shipping project in Yemen. Fasting during Ramadan, she added, hampers regional level where Iran-backed company stops its activities in In the past, Iran resorted to pa- “safety and productivity.” She singled out bus sectarian militias are undermining Iran, it can only mean that Europe tient endurance in the implemen- drivers whose fasting she ominously said “can be the peace in many Arab countries. takes American warnings seri- tation of its expansionist project. dangerous for all of us.” The second goal relates to the ously. It turns out the United States can Millions of Muslims in the West observe the Iran-made ballistic missiles being As always, the problem is that also play that game. religiously required fast during Ramadan without launched at Saudi Arabia from Iran refuses to accept that its ex- Every day, new economic sanc- it interfering with their work or social responsi- Yemen. pansionist project is hopeless and tions against Iran see the light, bilities. Nobody in their right mind that its current state resembles targeting Iranian officials and Stoejberg, however, offensively speculated would accept Iran’s behaviour in that of the ex-Soviet Union under institutions and even Iranian prox- about the obsolescence of one of the pillars of the the region. Even Russia, Iran’s ally Leonid Brezhnev. Brezhnev was ies. The latest batch, for example, Muslim faith. “I wonder if a religious order commanding observance to a 1,400-year-old pillar in Syria, does not accept it. It is ob- succeeded for a brief time by Yuri named Hezbollah officials. It was of Islam is compatible with the society and labour vious that Russia is irked by Iran’s Andropov and then Konstantin clear that the United States and market that we have in Denmark in 2018,” she shenanigans in Syria. Russian Chernenko. The Soviet leader- the Gulf countries were behind wrote. President Vladimir Putin invited ship was ageing and by the time it these sanctions. In fact, there is The minister’s remarks drew criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin decided to inject young blood by in the Gulf a shared awareness of Denmark’s largest trade union and its biggest bus the Iranian threat and a common operator, which employs many Muslim drivers. determination to do something The United Federation of Danish Workers about it. described Stoejberg’s comments as “far out,” In the final analysis, one won- stressing that it had “never heard of a single case ders whether the Iranian regime where the fasting has been a problem.” Members can assess its real size and that of of her centre-right Liberal Party, which leads the Iran. True, Iran is heir to the vener- government, disavowed her claims as well. able and prestigious Persian civili- That is not particularly surprising because sation but any reasonable person Stoejberg’s remarks were ignorant and irresponsi- can see that Iran cannot play the ble. They can only fan the flames of bigotry and role of a major regional power. Iran intolerance. They could lead to an informal two-stroke system for Danish citizens and had better take care of its popula- residents, with Muslims denied the chance to be tion before anything else. on a par with everyone else. Iran seems to be counting on This is wrong. Law-abiding Muslims in Denmark Europe to take its side but Iran will deserve to be treated as full-fledged members of not be willing or able to satisfy Eu- their society rather than as dangerous elements to rope’s demands for a new nuclear be ostracised. In line with the United Nations’ deal. The Arab world adamantly Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Muslims refuses to be a simple bystander in in Denmark are entitled to their faith and their its own region. It would be in Iran’s religious practice. They are entitled, as Article 18 interests, therefore, to quickly of the declaration says, to manifest their “religion adapt to the new rules of the game or belief in teaching, practice, worship and imposed by the Trump administra- observance.” tion. They deserve no less in a tolerant society such Tightened noose. The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Valiollah Seif (R) as Denmark. Its minister of integration is selling Khairallah Khairallah is a the country short. and Iranian Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Massoud Karbasiyanat attend a parliament session in Tehran. (AFP) Lebanese writer. May 27, 2018 7 Opinion Contact editor at: [email protected] Pompeo’s approach to Iran www.thearabweekly.com reflects US’s changed worldview Published by Al Arab Mohamad Kawas Publishing House

The long list of US demands is virtually Publisher a declaration of war. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD don’t think anyone be- bitten the bullet during the past tually go further in responding lieves that Washington four decades to achieve greater to any tricks up the sleeve of Editor-in-Chief expects the Iranian regime strategic goals. The goal of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatol- to comply with the 12 bringing down the Soviet Union lah Ali Khamenei. After all, the Oussama Romdhani conditions announced by and dismantling its internation- IRGC’s generals have clearly US Secretary of State Mike al network required the price announced that the Iranian Managing Editor IPompeo in a speech explain- of paving the way for Khomeini regime is not afraid of war with Iman Zayat ing his country’s strategy for to replace the vacillating shah. the “Great Satan.” dealing with the “Iranian case” That task of reshaping the post- Both Tehran and Washing- Deputy Managing Editor worldwide. Cold War world was much more ton have wisely managed to and Online Editor Pompeo’s revelations con- urgent and vital than wrangling cohabitate in Iraq and Syria Mamoon Alabbasi stitute a complete reversal of with one member of the “axis and avoid confrontation. With a policy that spanned all US of evil.” recent developments, however, Senior Editor administrations for the past 30 Add to that the fact that the everybody is wondering about John Hendel years. The Iranian Islamic Revo- September 11 attacks naturally America’s reaction when US lution had classified the United rehabilitated Iran as a logical soldiers start falling victims of Chief Copy Editor States as the “Great Satan,” ally in the war against Sunni ter- terrorist attacks perpetrated by Richard Pretorius which, in the eyes of Ayatol- rorism, which had struck at the new or old groups that Pompeo lah Ruhollah Khomeini and his heart of America. described as benefiting from Copy Editor successors, makes it a legitimate US and Iranian interests have Iranian support. Stephen Quillen target for attacks in the spirit of found common ground and He has offered a new deal to protecting the “weak” from the targets in the war against the the entire world and not just Analysis Section Editor “arrogance” of the mighty. Taliban in Afghanistan, the war Iran. Without US support, the Ed Blanche The list of Iran-sponsored ac- against Saddam Hussein in Iraq Iran nuclear agreement will die tions against the United States is and in the war on terror embod- no matter how hard the Europe- East/West Section Editor quite long. Suffice it to say that ied by the fight against al-Qaeda ans try to reshape it. Washing- Mark Habeeb the Iranian regime had used its and the Islamic State. ton is adamant on isolating Iran proxies to kidnap US citizens This is probably why Washing- and on imposing the harshest Gulf Section Editor and destroy the US Marines ton and Tehran have colluded sanctions against it. Mohammed Alkhereiji quarters in Beirut. It allowed its to simply exchange insults and Back to the wall. A demonstrator awaits The door, however, remains “students” to take US diplomats accusations so that Iran may open for a new deal with Iran Society and Travel the arrival of US Secretary of State Mike Sections Editor in Tehran hostage. It collabo- look like the brave defender of Pompeo at a hearing of the US House if it is willing to start a new rated with the Iraqi “resistance” the “weak” and the beacon for Foreign Affairs Committee on Capitol Hill in page with itself. In other words, Samar Kadi to target US soldiers in Iraq and “resistance” while the United Washington, on May 23. (Reuters) Washington relies on its Eu- elsewhere in the world. States remains the leader of the ropean allies to bring it a new Syria and Lebanon The long list of US demands free world and the sworn enemy Iranian state after burying the Section Editor is virtually a declaration of war. of evil around the world. looming storm from Washing- Iranian revolution. Simon Speakman Cordall Similarly, on the Iranian side, The world has changed, ton. Whoever wrote Pompeo’s open threats against the United however, and with it changed Judging by Pompeo’s declara- speech must have had access Contributing Editor States have fused from all sides, America’s worldview. In this tions, the United States does not to facts about changes in Iran. Rashmee Roshan Lall especially from the Islamic Rev- new world, the Iranian card seem impressed by Iran’s claims These facts were hinted at Senior Correspondents olutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has lost its strategic appeal and that it has become “an empire by the results of elections in and al-Quds brigade. From an therefore “protecting” Iran is no with Baghdad as its capital” Iraq and the intense popular Mahmud el-Shafey (London) American point of view, there longer warranted. or that it controls four Arab demonstrations in Iranian cities Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) was enough evidence to push US President Donald Trump capitals. Even though many of a few months ago. Perhaps the for a forceful change of regime and his administration have Iran’s enemies have welcomed biggest indicators of a rever- Regular Columnists in Iran. After all, the Americans a view of the world and of Pompeo’s proclamations, it sal of fortune for Iran are the Claude Salhani have done this sort of thing America’s role in it that voids remains to be seen whether mysterious bombings of Iranian Yavuz Baydar before and through a variety of Iran’s previous importance to US Washington will translate its targets in Syria and Russian ways in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, strategies and plans. The Iranian new Iranian strategy into a fea- President Vladimir Putin’s ru- Correspondents Afghanistan and other places. regime finds itself caught in sible plan. moured new Russian password Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) They could have done it in Iran the crosshairs of the new US It is also unclear whether in Syria: “Iran, out, out.” Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) as well but they didn’t. Why? president and his secretary of the United States has enough Roua Khlifi (Tunis) From a geostrategic point state. All of Iran’s gains outside resources to implement new Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese Thomas Seibert (Washington) of view, the United States has its borders are threatened by the sanctions against Iran and even- writer. Chief Designer Marwen el-Hmedi

Saudi support and Iranian Designers Ibrahim Ben Bechir intervention in Iraq are not the same Hanen Jebali

Mohammed Alkhereiji Al Arab Publishing House Iraq stands at the crossroads: It can either accept a continuation of the old situation Quadrant Building 177-179 Hammersmith Road or be an independent thriving Arab country free of sectarian expansionist projects. London W6 8BS Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 here is a strong belief Riyadh should resist the tempta- Saudi Arabia but in the Mid- pledged nothing. Fax: (+44) 20 8846 9520 among Arab political tion to transform the country dle East as a whole. Relations Saudi Arabia and Iraq also observers that, when into the latest battleground in a deteriorated after the US-led revealed joint economic initia- it comes to analysing cold war with Tehran.” invasion of Iraq. Iran exploited tives, many related to the en- disputes in the Mid- The report carries a nearly the power vacuum caused by ergy sector, as well as plans for Contributions dle East and espe- panicked tone over the upset the United States’ failure to plan significant trade. and Editorial Queries Tcially in categorising the role of election victory by Muqtada al- for after the war and Iraq fell “Saudi Arabia certainly seeks [email protected] Iran, Western think-tanks, NGOs Sadr, the influential Shia cleric completely within Iran’s orbit. to expand in Iraq but will not and media are radically influ- who in recent years has sought The ICG report advises the follow the Iranian example, enced by notions inherited from to distance himself from the Saudi government to strengthen which occupies the Iraqi market the Obama administration. Iranian government and worked the Iraqi state and focus on without employing the labour Tunis Office These concepts are par- to improve Iraq’s relations with economic engagement, which, force in Iraq,” an Iraqi political Tel: (+ 216) 71 669 174 ticularly acute when it comes to its neighbours, visiting Saudi in reality, is all Riyadh has been source told Al-Monitor news Tel: (+216) 71 669 175 what they define as the sectar- Arabia and the United Arab working to achieve. site on condition of anonymity ian war between Iran and Saudi Emirates last year. Efforts by Saudi Arabia to re- Saudi Arabia “seeks soft Arabia, considering them equal The report says Saudi Arabia’s engage Iraq started when Saudi dominance in Iraq by creating powers with one representing interest in engaging with Iraq is Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir jobs for Iraqis,” which will make the Sunni establishment and to “counter Iranian influence” made an unannounced visit in its “presence and influence in the other representing its Shia and that, if Riyadh tries to do February 2017 to Baghdad, the the political scene acceptable counterpart. That is an incorrect too much too soon, it could first by a high-ranking Saudi within the Iraqi society,” the US Publisher: comparison on many levels. “provoke an Iranian reaction.” official since 2003. Last June, source said. Ibrahim Zobeidi These Obama-era definitions, That ICG report says Iran Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Iraq stands at the crossroads: which gained popularity with “should encourage Iraq’s efforts al-Abadi met with Saudi King It can either accept a continua- (248) 803 1946 the signing of the Joint Compre- to diversify its regional alli- Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in tion of the old situation, being a hensive Plan of Action with Iran ances.” Jeddah. country without a sovereign de- in 2015, echo today. This was Easier said than done, given In October, Riyadh and Bagh- cision and subject to the author- shown in the International Crisis that Iran has for years exploited dad announced an agreement ity of Iran and its expansionist Group’s post-Iraqi elections every loophole to achieve influ- on shared border crossings, agenda, or be an independent report, which compared Iranian ence in the region, including the resumption of flights and thriving Arab country free of Subscription & Advertising: intervention in Iraq to the role militarily through its proxies in reopening the Saudi consulate sectarian expansionist projects. Mohamed Al Mufti that Saudi Arabia can play in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, in Iraq. If the election results are an [email protected] Iraq’s desire to return to the as well as politically by interfer- Saudi Arabia and other indication, the Iraqi people Tel: (+44) 20 8742 9262 Arab fold. ing in democratic processes, international donors pledged have chosen the latter. In “Saudi Arabia: Back to as evidenced in Lebanon’s and billions of dollars to help Iraq in Baghdad,” the International Iraq’s recent elections. its reconstruction efforts during Mohammed Alkhereiji is Crisis Group (ICG) asserts: “In Tehran achieving this goal is a conference in February. Iran the Gulf section editor of projecting its influence in Iraq, not only viewed as a threat in attended the conference but The Arab Weekly. 8 May 27, 2018 News & Analysis Gulf

Viewpoint Houthi-IRGC ties on Washington’s radar again

At a media briefing in December, US Ambassador to the United Na- tions Nikki Haley displayed Iranian Iman Zayat weapons that she said were recov- ered from battlefields in Yemen. “The nuclear deal has done he United States has im- nothing to moderate the regime’s posed new sanctions on conduct in other areas,” she said. officials of Iran’s Islamic “Aid from Iran’s Revolutionary Revolutionary Guard Guard to dangerous militias and ter- Corps (IRGC), reflect- ror groups is increasing. Its ballistic ing growing concern in missiles and advanced weapons are TWashington over ties between the turning up in war zones across the Iranian paramilitary organisation region. It’s hard to find a conflict or and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. a terrorist group in the Middle East The US Treasury Department that does not have Iran’s finger- released a statement on May 22 say- prints all over it.” ing five Iranians had acted to enable Iran has rejected accusations Houthi rebels to launch missiles at from Saudi Arabia and the United cities and oil infrastructure in Saudi States that it provided ballistic Arabia. “The United States will not capabilities and other military and tolerate Iranian support for Houthi financial assistance to Houthi rebels rebels who are attacking our close but the new US sanctions show that partner, Saudi Arabia,” US Treasury Washington is taking the threat seri- Secretary Steven Mnuchin said. ously. The United States said IRGC units Throughout the conflict in Yem- supported efforts “to improve the en, Houthis are reported to have ob- Houthis’ ballistic missile capabili- tained sea mines, anti-ship missiles ties.” and other explosive materials that “Their actions have enabled increased their ability to threaten the Houthis to launch missiles at shipping lanes in the Red Sea. Saudi cities and oil infrastructure,” “These types of weapons did not Mnuchin said. “They have also dis- exist in Yemen before the conflict,” rupted humanitarian aid efforts in US Navy Admiral Kevin Donegan Yemen and threatened freedom of said in 2017. “It’s not rocket science navigation in key regional water- to conclude that the Houthis are ways.” getting not only these systems but Among those targeted by the likely training and advice and as- United States’ new sanctions were sistance in how to use them.” Mahmud Bagheri Kazemabad, The conflict in Yemen plays a identified as the commander of an significant role in defining the bal- Balanced role. An Emirati gunner watches for enemy fire from the rear gate of a UAE Chinook IRGC aerospace unit involved with ance of power in the Middle East. helicopter flying over Yemen. (AP) missile command, and Agha Jaafari, Yemen is particularly strategic for named as a senior official in the Iran for many reasons, including its unit. The two individuals allegedly position on Saudi Arabia’s porous oversee the “transfer of missile southern border, its enduring insta- components and the deployment of bility and the high concentration of UAE-Yemen contentious ballistic missile specialists” across Shia Muslims there. These elements the Middle East in support of the make the country a useful pawn in IRGC’s activities. Tehran’s war with its Arab neigh- One other IRGC official and two bours, notably Saudi Arabia. issues unresolved as Saudi-led individuals were among those The United States is aware of the targeted by sanctions, which result need to prevent the region’s balance in the freezing of any US-held assets of power from shifting to Iran and coalition reports gains and could be extended to other its clients in the region, which is individuals determined to have pro- likely why it is increasing financial vided material or financial support pressure, not only on Tehran but on to those facing sanctions. its proxies and clients in the region The Arab Weekly staff that Yemeni officials reassess their and political power in southern Washington’s move to sanction and beyond. positions. Yemen. IRGC figures comes after warnings The recent US sanctions follow a “Unfortunately, some Yemeni Observers said the appointments by Saudi Arabia in March following move May 15 to designate two top London government officials compare the may not be received well by the a Houthi missile attack on Riyadh. officials of Iran’s Central Bank as role of the UAE to that of Iran. The Saudi-led coalition because bin Riyadh has been warning of Iran’s “terrorists” for their alleged role AE and Yemeni officials, loss of their compass will not make Mubarak, a close Hadi confidant, is role in providing arms and support in funnelling “millions of dollars” allies in the fight against us forget our main mission within thought to have been instrumental to the Houthis since the beginning from the IRGC to Hezbollah. Houthi rebels, continued the Arab alliance of defeating the in the conflict regarding the UAE of the conflict in Yemen. The Saudis US Secretary of State Mike U personal disputes despite Houthis, reinstating the state and deploying troops on Yemen’s So- say Tehran’s strategy in Yemen fol- Pompeo on May 21 outlined a new the pro-government Arab coalition initiating development. This is cotra Island, supposedly without lows Iran’s pattern of interference in policy towards Iran, declaring that reporting significant gains in bat- time for genuine work, and not Yemeni permission. other countries in the region, such unless the country complies with tling the rebels in Yemen. shedding tears,” Gargash wrote on The Yemeni government had as its support for the Shia Hezbollah American demands, it faces “the Yemeni Interior Minister Ahmed his official Twitter account. threatened to take the issue to the movement in Lebanon and interfer- strongest sanctions in history” and al-Misri told US television network Gargash reminded Misri of the United Nations, claiming the Emir- ence in Syria. “unprecedented financial pressure” PBS that Yemen was being con- heavy human cost the Emirates has ates had breached Yemen’s sover- The IRGC’s arming of Houthi from Washington. trolled by the United Arab Emirates incurred while fighting for Yemen’s eignty but the Socotra dispute was rebels is a major source of concern Ending military support for the and not the Iran-allied Houthi mi- cause. resolved through Saudi mediation. for the Trump administration and Houthis in Yemen is one of the 12 litia, which took over the country Yemeni President Abd Rabbo The deal brokered by the Saudis likely played into Trump’s decision demands Pompeo laid out. three years ago and drove the inter- Mansour Hadi has reshuffled his stipulated that the UAE hand con- to withdraw from the Joint Compre- nationally recognised government cabinet, a move analysts said trol of Socotra’s airport and naval hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — Iman Zayat is the Managing Editor into exile in neighbouring Saudi was spurred by a drive to consoli- port to Saudi troops, who then the nuclear agreement with Iran. of The Arab Weekly. Arabia. date power by promoting officials transferred control to Yemeni au- “We don’t regret that Emiratis are known for loyalty. thorities. here. They helped us,” Misri said in The Yemeni government de- the interview. “But you can’t go to clared Socotra a disaster zone after the port without permission from Hadi’s cabinet reshuffle the island was struck by Cyclone UAE. You can’t go to the airport may not be received well Mekunu on May 24. At least 17 peo- without permission from UAE. You by the Saudi-led ple were missing and significant can’t enter Aden from without the coalition. material damage was reported. Ha- permission of UAE.” di’s government requested interna- Asked whether Yemen was oc- Hadi appointed Yemeni Ambas- tional help to deal with the disaster cupied by the UAE, Misri said: “It’s sador to the United Nations Khaled and the United Arab Emirates is undeclared. We have a lot of indi- al-Yamani as foreign minister, re- likely to pitch in in the humanitar- cators on the ground that support placing Abdel Malek al-Mekhlafi, ian cause. what you just said but we still think who becomes a presidential ad- On the battlefront, the Saudi-led good of UAE. The answer to your viser. Yemeni Ambassador to the coalition said the Iran-allied Houthi question will come in the next few United States Ahmed Awadh bin rebels’ military capabilities were months.” Mubarak is to take over Yamani’s “collapsing.” Coalition spokesman “It’s either that the coalition post at the United Nations. Colonel Turki al-Maliki said the countries prove that they came to Yemeni sources said the cabi- Houthi militia had been expelled support the legitimate government net reshuffle was an attempt to from 85% of Yemen’s territory and and they enable us to do our work pull together a group opposed to that their forces were falling apart. or they will prove the thing you just the Southern Transitional Coun- Maliki said the Houthis have been said and I myself will go and say it cil (STC). Yemeni forces and STC seizing aid destined for the Yemeni in a press conference but not now,” fighters clashed in January in what people during Ramadan and using Documented violations. Colonel Turki al-Malki, spokesman he said. Hadi considered a setback. The in- civilians as human shields. He cit- for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, displays wreckage from UAE Minister of State for Foreign tra-government changes reflect an ed a case of a 4-year-old girl report- Iranian-Houthi suicide drones in Khobar city, last April. (AP) Affairs Anwar Gargash demanded attempt to strengthen his military edly used as a shield by her father. May 27, 2018 9 News & Analysis Regional Issues Trump administration seen as nudging Israel, Gulf countries towards closer ties

Thomas Seibert ate concerns and challenges. Middle East that could serve to Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United counter Iran and act in tandem with Arab Emirates and other countries Washington, potentially lowering Washington in the region are united by worries the burden for the United States in about aggressive Iranian policies money and personnel. ncouraged by the Trump and by uncertainty about the extent “The common link is the Trump administration, Saudi Ara- of protection they can expect from administration, the Kushner nexus,” bia and other Gulf countries the United States, Krasna added. said Joseph Bahout, a visiting schol- E are quietly exploring closer Trump has repeatedly criticised ar at the Middle East Programme cooperation with Israel against previous US administrations for of the Carnegie Endowment for In- regional rival Iran despite the vio- their expensive involvement in ternational Peace in Washington, lence in the Gaza Strip, analysts Middle Eastern affairs and has referring to Jared Kushner, Trump’s said. called for a quick withdrawal of US son-in law and Middle East envoy. The Gulf countries’ cautious troops from Syria. Kushner has close ties to both movement is determined by the Krasna pointed out that the “axis Crown Prince Mohammed and the perception of the common threat of interests” between Israel and Israeli government. Speaking at the represented by Iran. Arab Gulf countries emerged three opening of the US Embassy in Jeru- Israel faced criticism from Ri- years ago when they jointly op- salem on May 14, he said alliances in yadh and other Arab capitals after posed the Obama administration’s the region were shifting in Israel’s its troops killed more than 60 Pal- determination to reach a nuclear favour. estinians on May 14. The violence deal with Iran. “The Trump admin- “From Israel to Jordan to Egypt was in part triggered by the opening istration thus provides a ‘following to Saudi Arabia and beyond, many of the US Embassy in Jerusalem and wind’ to a dynamic that already ex- leaders are fighting to modernise by US President Donald Trump’s isted,” he wrote. their countries and create better decision to recognise the city as the He said he expects Israel and the lives for their people,” he said. “In capital of Israel. Arabs to follow their own policies confronting common threats and in Trump’s Jerusalem move and Is- against Iran, “probably with a level pursuit of common interests, previ- rael’s tough response to unrest in of discreet coordination, in a way ously unimaginable opportunities Gaza are not stopping Arab govern- that will largely promote the inter- and alliances are emerging.” ments from discreetly reaching out ests of both of them.” Bahout said Riyadh was able to to Israel, even though they do not In a sign of shared goals, Saudi pursue the Israeli-Arab connection recognise the Jewish state official- ally Bahrain signalled support for without much scrutiny from a Sau- ly, said Joshua Krasna, a fellow in Israel after Israeli attacks on Iranian di public that has strong anti-Israeli Shifts in motion. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (C), White House the Middle East Programme at the targets in Syria this month. Saudi leanings, even as it tends to defer to Senior Adviser Jared Kushner (L) and US President Donald Trump sit Foreign Policy Research Institute in Crown Prince Mohammed bin Sal- its rulers on such high-stakes poli- during a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (Reuters) Philadelphia. man bin Abdulaziz said in an in- cies. “They can continue in secret,” bin Abdulaziz in Washington, last March. terview with the Atlantic magazine he said about Israel and Arab inter- that Israelis have “a right to have locutors. “They don’t have to go An important factor is the their own land.” public.” probably only follow the formal from information, technologies and perception of the common Security issues are at the centre of Events such as the recent vio- ending of the state of war between good connections in Washington.” threat represented by Iran. Israeli-Arab contacts. Mike Pompeo, lence in Gaza are setbacks for the the states,” Krasna wrote. “This The Gulf countries’ cautious ap- the US secretary of state and former rapprochement but not fatal, Ba- cannot occur, in my view, so long as proach in dealing with Israel is “The relationship between Israel CIA director, said last December hout said. Saudi Arabia still needs a the Palestinian issue, as unimpor- also guided by disappointments and the Gulf states, including Saudi that Israel, Saudi Arabia and other cover of “Arab legitimacy,” he said, tant as it is practically, simmers.” brought about by the processes of Arabia, has developed over the last Gulf countries were cooperating so an interruption in contacts af- In addition, the Arab uprisings of normalisation between Israel and years and is based on interests, not to fight “terrorism” in the region. ter the Gaza killings was possible. 2011 served as a lesson to Gulf lead- other Arab countries, in North Af- values,” Krasna said via e-mail. Egypt has found common cause However, after a short while, “the ers “that they cannot get too far rica and the Middle East, including The relatively limited reactions with Israel in containing Hamas and Saudis will go back to normal,” he ahead of their publics,” Krasna add- the only two — Egypt and Jordan — across the Arab-Islamic world to the combating Islamic extremists in the added. ed. “Too close an identification be- that have signed peace agreements US move and recent Israeli actions Sinai Peninsula. Still, there are limits to how far tween them and Israel could harm with the Jewish state. in Gaza have shown, experts said, The US administration is strong- the Saudis and other Gulf Arabs and delegitimise their efforts.” an increasing inability of the Pales- ly encouraging the development. will go in cooperating with Israel. Krasna also expressed doubt that Thomas Seibert is a tinian issue to mobilise support in a Trump envisages a strong alliance “Formal diplomatic relations do Israel could offer much to the Gulf Washington correspondent region consumed by more immedi- of Israel and Arab countries in the not seem to be in the cards and will rulers in concrete terms, “apart for The Arab Weekly. Abu Dhabi conference tackles MENA geopolitical challenges

Caline Malek the region did not need to be rede- called for changes and addressing fined. “What you need to do is ac- deep-rooted challenges to ensure a knowledge the extraordinary num- stable and prosperous region. Abu Dhabi ber of centrifugal forces working to “We can look at the future in a try and tear apart the [Arab] region positive way in the Arab world but he Arab region’s priorities, and those that comprise this par- there is still a lot to do, especially the emerging landscape of ticular region,” he said. as we are in turmoil in many of geopolitical realignments Technological leaps, regional se- our countries,” said May Chidiac, a T and the American-Russian curity, the role of Arab women, as former journalist and founder and dynamics in the Middle East were well as innovation, productivity president of the May Chidiac Foun- top issues tackled during a high- and the future of jobs were high on dation in Lebanon. “We need help level conference in Abu Dhabi. the summit’s agenda. to have stability in our region but, to More than 200 Arab and inter- Parag Khanna, a geo-strategist have good governance, accountabil- national delegates met to discuss and best-selling author, spoke of the ity is something we have to work for them and other subjects earlier this manner in which technological rev- ourselves.” month during the second Beirut olutions are shaping our world. He Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, chairman Institute Summit, organised by re- said societies of the future would be of the Arab Council for Social Sci- gional think-tank the Beirut Insti- measured by how connected or dis- ences, said the UAE and Saudi Ara- tute under the theme “Constructing connected they were and the best- bia were ready to shoulder their the Arab Region’s Engagement in connected societies will be the most responsibility in helping the rest of the Emerging Global Future.” New dynamics. Beirut Institute founder Raghida Dergham speaks successful. the region. “It’s a place of hope for With conflicts ravaging much of at the second Beirut Institute Summit. (Caline Malek) “Stable regions will be best able the youth, who are the ones chang- Syria, Yemen and Libya, the summit to connect internationally, with ing the name of the game and bet- was timely in establishing a frame- less concern over their stability at tering society,” he said. work for trying to shape the region’s totally disconnected from what’s the King Faisal Centre for Research home,” Khanna said. “So we must According to al-Faisal, the United coming years. going on in Yemen — it’s in their and Islamic Studies’ board of di- strive for this region for that kind Nations and the Arab League are “It’s about whether we can think neighbourhood — or even in Libya rectors, mentioned the presence of of stability so that it can focus on no longer functioning. “After seven of constructing this engagement in or Syria.” carcinogenic cells that have been its international connectivity with years now, we’ve still got a few more the future, while conflicts are ongo- Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary- inserted into the Arab region. partners around the world.” years of bloodshed in Syria and ing or must we, as a precondition, general of the Arab League, spoke of “We, as Arabs, should have a de- “It’s important to realise that this that’s totally unacceptable,” he said. resolve conflicts in order to build the need for a unified Arab stance. velopment project to combat and region, given its central geography, “Russia, the US, Turkey, Iran, Eu- a future,” said Raghida Dergham, “If we have a unified will, we will go counteract this intervention and has to think globally in terms of rope and the rest of the world com- founder of the Beirut Institute. “It’s forward,” he said. these cells that are trying to benefit who it is connected to economical- munity, who are contributing to the not an exercise in fancy wording. “The Arab League is working from our problems,” he said. ly,” he said. “The UAE has done very military campaign there, have the It’s an exercise in a serious situa- based on the concept of consensus, Lebanese Minister of Interior and well to get connected, to attract in- capability to impose on all of Syria a tion that is consuming part of this but the norm of the Arab approach Municipalities Nohad Machnouk vestment and to develop a strategy ceasefire and that is what is needed. region.” is not to turn things into majority said: “The Iranian intervention is around the latest technologies but Stop the killing, because it’s the Syr- “The Gulf part of the Arab region and minority because the minority one of the major causes of the dys- it has the responsibility to take the ian people who are paying the price, is very stable and they’re joining will always feel they were deprived function happening in the region. It lead in spreading these technolo- and the world community isn’t do- the future in a very organised way,” of their rights.” has always been a destabilising ac- gies for the benefit of the region.” ing that, which is not just shameful, Dergham said, “but they cannot be Experts spoke of the transforma- tivity.” Experts shared their thoughts on it’s criminal.” divorced from the larger identity tions that took place in the Arab David Petraeus, chairman of the the future of the Arab world, many with the Arab region, so you can- region in the past decade. Saudi KKR Global Institute and a former mentioning hope in the youth’s role Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly not pretend that the Gulf states are Prince Turki al-Faisal, chairman of director of the CIA, explained that in shaping that future, while others contributor in Abu Dhabi. 10 May 27, 2018 News & Analysis Egypt Egypt establishes buffer zone on Gaza border to help with security, trade

Ibrahim Ouf The creation of the zone gained momentum recently with the Egyptian Army erecting a fence Cairo demarcating its southern border. The fence separates the buffer he creation of a buffer zone zone from the rest of Sinai. Be- along the border with the fore October 2014, Rafah, a city Gaza Strip would help the near the Gaza Strip, was inhabited T Egyptian Army tighten con- by approximately 80,000 people. trol on the area, prevent the smug- Although no official figures have gling between Sinai and Gaza and been released, it is believed Rafah’s allow for the establishment of a population has declined signifi- free trade zone between Egypt and cantly since then. the blockaded Palestinian territory, Despite the lack of confirmation experts said. from the Egyptian military on the Egypt began establishing the fence, Abu Hashima said the space buffer zone following an October between Egypt and Gaza would be 2014 attack on an army post in impossible for terrorists to pen- Sheikh Zuweid in northern Sinai etrate. near the border with Gaza. “Demography is usually decid- “The presence of this empty ed by the sovereign interests of space along the border with Gaza states,” Abu Hashima said. “Egypt’s will make it easy for the army to sovereignty and security interests increase its presence in the area make it necessary for population and tighten its control on it,” said concentrations to be away from retired army General Sameh Abu this border area.” Hashima. “The army used to have Egypt has been battling a branch difficulty controlling the area in the of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Sinai presence of its residents.” for several years, a showdown that has cost the army and police hun- dreds of lives. ISIS militants cre- There are hopes among the ated underground infrastructure, Palestinians that the zone including arms caches and hide- Challenges and opportunities. Palestinian Hamas security guards stand near an Egyptian watch could turn into a blessing outs, in the peninsula, that is tak- tower on the border with Egypt in Rafah. (AP) for Gaza’s approximately ing the Egyptian Army huge efforts 2 million residents. to obliterate. The army started an all-out of- off supplies, which were believed the tunnels. the Palestinian territory and ease However, some complained that fensive against ISIS in February to to be arriving from Gaza, and pre- “This underscores the impor- the suffering of its people, analysts buffer zone required the army to root out the terrorists in northern venting terrorists from sneaking to tance of tightening security on the said. demolish thousands of homes and and central Sinai. Operation Sinai and from the Palestinian enclave. border with Gaza,” said Gamal Ma- “This zone will allow a measure evict tens of thousands of residents 2018 involved ground troops, the Hamas, which is in control of zloum, another retired Egyptian of business activity in Gaza, one from the Sinai Peninsula. Residents air force and the navy. The opera- Gaza, is known to use a network army general. “The buffer zone will that can, with time, improve liv- forced from the area were relocat- tion was to have been completed of tunnels to smuggle arms, goods make this task much easier.” ing conditions in it,” said Palestin- ed to other parts of the Sinai and within three months but in late and people in and out of the area. There are hopes among the Pal- ian economist Maher al-Tabbaa. received financial compensation. February Chief of Staff of the Army Egyptian military analysts implied estinians that the zone could turn “Egypt will be able to exchange The decision to establish the General Mohamed Hegazi asked recently that there has been col- into a blessing for Gaza’s approxi- goods with the blockaded terri- zone was made by former Prime that it be extended. laboration between Gaza’s Salafist mately 2 million residents who suf- tory, which will boost the Egyptian Minister Ibrahim Mahlab, who The view among military ana- groups and ISIS. The analysts said fered under a decade-long block- economy.” specified 13km-wide, 5km-deep lysts in Cairo is that the buffer zone ISIS fighters wounded in battles ade by Israel. A free trade zone buffer zone in Sinai along the bor- on the border with Gaza will help with the Egyptian Army received between Sinai and Gaza would Ibrahim Ouf is an Egyptian der with Gaza. the army control ISIS by cutting medical treatment in Gaza by using technically end the blockade of journalist in Cairo. Optimism in Egypt over Nile dam talks breakthrough

Amr Emam Egypt has been trying to contain Ethiopia in other ways, including its suggestion to set up a joint fund Cairo for investment in infrastructure, a plan that would include Sudan. ollowing a breakthrough Officials from Egypt, Ethiopia and in Nile dam talks among Sudan are to meet in June to dis- Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, cuss organisational matters related F Egyptians are hoping issues to the fund. surrounding the Grand Ethiopian This seems to be a small detail in Renaissance Dam (GERD) have the larger picture with Cairo hop- been resolved and that diplomatic ing that its closest Arab allies — problems between the three ripar- Saudi Arabia and the United Arab ian countries are at an end. Emirates — can help exert influ- Egyptian President Abdel Fat- ence over Addis Ababa. tah al-Sisi invited Ethiopian Prime Two days after Sisi extended his Minister Abiy Ahmed to Cairo invitation to Ahmed, the Ethiopian to formally settle the dispute af- prime minister visited Riyadh. In a ter the three countries agreed on gesture of goodwill, Saudi authori- technical impact studies and op- ties promised to release 1,000 Ethi- tions for filling the dam, some- opian nationals in Saudi jails. thing Egypt says will harm its Nile Ahmed also headed to Abu Dha- water share. bi where he met with Crown Prince “Egyptians need, however, to re- Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan. alise that this is an issue [protect- UAE authorities vowed to release ing Egypt’s Nile water share] that hundreds of Ethiopian prisoners in will take time and effort before Bone of contention. A general view of the 6th October Bridge (bottom) and Kasr El Nil Bridge (top), UAE jails. we reach an understanding that which span the Nile River in Cairo. (Reuters) The UAE has invested about $3 serves the best interests of every- billion in the African state and is body,” Sisi said. planning to expand investments. The agreement came as part of spokesman Ahmed Abu Zeid said. said Egypt was facing water short- effects in this regard.” Saudi Arabia has also invested annual ministerial meetings on the Final approval would be followed ages for agricultural needs. Egypt is trying to convince Ethi- extensively in Ethiopia’s agricul- GERD, including a gathering May by completion of technical studies The dam construction will make opia to lengthen the timeframe for tural and livestock sectors and has 15 in Addis Ababa during which on the dam, he added. Egypt less capable of producing filling the reservoir and co-operate hopes for stronger economic ties foreign and water ministers and The three riparian countries have food, water specialists said. The in the operation of the dam with with Addis Ababa. heads of security and intelligence been negotiating regarding the hy- amount of water the project will Addis Ababa to ensure that the “Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are ap- services approved a preliminary droelectric dam for almost seven deprive Egypt of during the reser- project will not cause it problems parently planning to play a role in technical report. It included guide- years. Egypt is concerned that the voir filling period remains a major in the future. creating common ground between lines over reservoir filling and the project will deprive it of the 55.5 issue of contention. Abu Zeid said Egypt had a plan Egypt and Ethiopia,” said Jasim potential effects that would have billion cubic metres of water it re- “This is why there is a need for for dealing with technical, diplo- Khalfan, a political analyst from on Egyptian and Sudanese water ceives from the Nile every year. the three countries to reach agree- matic and political issues related the UAE. “Apart from planning shares. It also contained dam op- However even that amount ment on the likely effects of each to the Ethiopian dam. “This is an this mediation, the two states are erations recommendations. of water is not enough to meet dam reservoir filling scenario,” issue of extreme importance for also for strong relations with Addis “Initial approval by representa- Egypt’s overall water demands, said Ahmed Fawzi Diab, a water Egypt’s national security,” he said. Ababa as part of their pursuit for tives of the three countries of the which total 114 billion cubic me- expert from Egypt’s state-run De- Sisi said he hoped Ahmed would strong presence in Africa.” preliminary report needs to be fol- tres a year, Irrigation and Water sert Research Centre. “A longer visit Egypt during Ramadan. lowed by final approval of the re- Resources Minister Mohamed Ab- dam reservoir filling period will “Egyptians will want him to come Amr Emam is a Cairo-based port,” Egyptian Foreign Ministry del Aty said. Abdel Aty, on May 21, make Egypt less prone to harmful and hear from him,” Sisi said. contributor to The Arab Weekly. May 27, 2018 11 News & Analysis Palestine Israel Abbas health issues highlight urgency of consensus successor

Mamoon Alabbasi “The Israeli intelligence com- munity believes it is more likely that Abbas will be replaced, at least London temporarily, by a group that could include senior Fatah leaders, offi- he hospitalisation of cials with diplomatic experience Palestinian President and representatives of the security Mahmoud Abbas rekin- agencies.” T dled speculation about Israel may also be considering his health and raised questions over agreeing to a Hamas offer for a long- who will succeed the 82-year-old term truce, diplomatic officials told leader in a period of political tur- Channel 10 News. bulence in the Israeli-occupied ter- The Times of Israel reported that ritories. Israeli officials said that, with Ab- Abbas was admitted to a hospital bas’s health apparently deteriorat- in the West Bank city of Ramallah ing, “the likelihood that his Ramal- on May 20 for a lung infection. He lah-based government will regain had ear surgery five days earlier and control of Gaza is slim.” was hospitalised in February in the President of the Palestinian Au- United States for medical checks. thority since 2005, Abbas has no Palestinian Authority officials official deputy or successor and released numerous statements in- members of his Fatah party appear dicating that Abbas’s health was divided on who will be their next improving and reassured the public leader. that he would soon be discharged The most prominent names from the hospital. Concerns over touted in the media include Prime the president’s general health, how- Minister Rami Hamdallah, intelli- ever, remain high. gence chief Majed Faraj, former in- telligence chief Tawfiq Tirawi, Pal- estinian Football Association chief If the potential Fatah Jibril Rajoub, Fatah vice-chairman Continuing speculation. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas walks inside a hospital in Ramallah candidates do not agree on a Mahmoud al-Aloul and former for- in the occupied West Bank, on May 21. (Palestinian President Office) successor, there could be eign minister Nasser al-Qudwa. infighting among Fatah Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, who reportedly enjoys the widest The website Middle East Eye cited “Hamas’s main interest is to take however, is unlikely to be resolved members in the West Bank. public support among the poten- sources as saying “some Fatah lead- power in the West Bank and torpedo easily regardless of who is the next tial Abbas successors, is an unlikely ers were accumulating weapons and President (Donald) Trump’s ‘Deal of Palestinian leader. Israel is already thinking of the candidate because he is serving building alliances” because they are the Century’,” he added, referring Part of the reason why Abbas is post-Abbas period. multiple life-in-prison sentences in “wary of losing stature should a ri- to the reaching of a lasting peace scoring poorly in opinion polls in “Israeli security officials see this an Israeli jail for his role in the sec- val rise to prominence.” agreement between the Palestin- the West Bank is the widely held as the beginning of the end of Ab- ond Palestinian uprising. In addition to consolidating its ians and the Israelis. perception that he is too accom- bas’s rule, although it is not clear Top Palestinian negotiator Saeb power in Gaza, Hamas might seek to Alternatively, a new Palestinian modating to Israel and the United how long the whole process will Erekat could be ruled out due to his strengthen its standing in the West president might be more open to States — despite his recent fiery take,” wrote Haaretz defence ana- reportedly ill health and expelled Bank. restarting the reconciliation process rhetoric — at the expense of Pales- lyst Amos Harel. Fatah leader Mohammed Dahlan is “Hamas is also not expected to be with Hamas after recent Egyptian tinian rights. “Leading security officials say unlikely to be allowed back from ex- idle. It is likely to stir up its agents mediation efforts hit a dead end in A new Palestinian leader is un- that… security coordination with ile in the United Arab Emirates. inside the West Bank and join in the March. likely to wish to inherit that legacy. Abbas and his people is a strategic If the potential Fatah candidates struggle for the succession,” wrote The diplomatic fallout with Wash- asset that must be carefully main- do not agree on a successor, there Yoni Ben-Menachem, a senior ana- ington over the Trump administra- Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy tained with Abbas’s successor (or could be infighting among Fatah lyst at the Jerusalem Centre for Pub- tion’s decision to move the US Em- Managing Editor and Online Editor successors). members in the West Bank. lic Affairs, an Israeli think-tank. bassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, of The Arab Weekly. Israel’s F-35 changes regional air game

Sabahat Khan expensive and complex interna- ported in March that Israel flew F- tional military programme ever 35s at high altitudes over Syria and seen. A hefty price tag of almost Iraq undetected into Iranian air- Dubai $100 million per aircraft has made space on a reconnaissance mission the F-35 a controversial aircraft. over Bandar Abbas, Isfahan and srael Air Force (IAF) Major- The IAF’s use of the F-35 gives it a Shiraz. While experts dismissed General Amikam Norkin de- crucial head-start and potentially the likelihood of Israel conduct- clared his force was “flying the game-changing capability in the ing such high-risk missions at the I F-35 all over the Middle East region. moment, it is a plausible scenario and have already attacked twice Israel has carried out hundreds for the future. After all, Israel has on two different fronts.” While of air strikes in Syria since the start performed many audacious espio- Norkin did not specify missions of the civil war in 2011, as it has nage and sabotage operations in in which the F-35s were used in, elsewhere over the years — notably Iran. speculation is they were deployed in Sudan and Iraq, targeting nucle- during recent air strikes in Syria. ar sites. The IAF led the operations Israel’s official disclosure indi- with not only qualified success but The F-35 brings the Israeli cates it is the first country to em- an aura of impunity. Its pilots us- Air Force an immediate ploy the F-35 in a combat scenario. ing among the most advanced F-15 psychological effect, A fifth-generation, stealth mul- and F-16 fighters demonstrated potentially rendering its tirole fighter, the F-35 will be the textbook air superiority. aircraft invisible to backbone of the West’s air power Hezbollah, however, has ac- for four decades. With cutting- quired more advanced capabili- adversaries. edge electronics, information pro- ties, including — possibly — highly cessing capacity and a digitised capable Russia-made surface-to- The IAF’s introduction of the smart user interface, the F-35 ena- air missiles. F-35 just as tensions with Iran ap- bles an entirely novel approach to In February an Israeli F-16 was pear to be coming to a head stands war from the air. downed by Syrian air defences, to have a considerable effect on It’s not entirely clear when the the first combat loss for the IAF developments across the region. jets were first used but it’s worth since 1982. Whether that loss was Yet, the IAF’s greatest focus will noting that Le Figaro writer Georg- caused by pilot error, as reported be on training, testing operational es Malbrunot cited French intel- by the IAF, or it represented the concepts and integrating F-35s ligence sources claiming Israeli erosion of Israel’s air superiority — into its existing force, which in- F-35s had participated in raids on unquestionable in recent decades volves working out how best to Damascus in January. — is a debate the F-35 in Israel ef- operate them with F-15s, F-16s and Known as the Adir (Hebrew for fectively puts to rest. other aircraft. “mighty”) in Israel, the version The F-35 brings the IAF an im- Other than that, Israel’s nem- of the F-35 acquired by the IAF mediate psychological effect, po- esis Iran, and its allies (including has a unique configuration, swap- tentially rendering its aircraft in- Russia here), will be observing in ping out some US technologies for visible to adversaries. Israelis say detail to understand how the F-35 Israeli ones. Israel will become the F-35’s stealth characteristics works, estimating its effect on the the first country to have an op- can be overcome by adversaries regional balance of power and erational squadron of F-35 aircraft in the next decade. Until then, how to compensate for this emerg- after the United States, ahead of the F-35 is an asset that Israel will ing technical overmatch. the nine other nations that have want to utilise to its full potential, placed orders for the Lockheed- Deciding factor. An Israeli Air Force F-35 Lightning II fighter jet in particular in its intensifying Sabahat Khan is a senior analyst Martin-built aircraft. is seen during an air show at the Hatzerim Air Force base in the competition with Iran. at the Institute for Near East and The F-35 represents the most Negev desert. (AFP) Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida re- Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA). 12 May 27, 2018 Special Focus

New ISIS leaders emerge on the internet

Ed Blanche Beirut

s ISIS 2.0 takes shape, new leaders are emerg- ing on the internet, long A a key recruiting tool for the extremists, and it seems that their propaganda particularly resonates in the United States. One is Zulfi Hoxha, the son of an Albanian-American pizza store owner in New Jersey. He is known to have become a senior Islamic State (ISIS) figure and a key recruitment icon since he was seen, dressed in black, in a propaganda video beheading captured Kurdish peshmerga fighters in Syria. Indeed, as senior ISIS adher- ents trickle through the US jus- tice system, it is becoming evi- dent that American involvement in the upper echelons of the movement and its mobilisation networks has grown consider- ably. This is a grave development, particularly at a time when ISIS (AFP) Ticking bomb. A watch that belonged to a former Islamic State (ISIS) fighter, bearing the group’s logo. is battling to rebuild after the loss of its Middle Eastern caliphate to Western and regional forces, be- cause it shoots down the notion that jihadists in the United States Baghdadi evades capture are largely lone wolves inspired by internet recruitment. US security sources said ISIS’s recruiting networks in the Unit- ed States do not compare to the wider groups that exist in Europe as a new ISIS takes shape but the growing US involvement is a disturbing development. US officials say Hoxha, 25, left Ed Blanche sal will trigger retaliatory, high-cas- Middle Eastern intelligence ser- If Adl entertained any hopes of the United States for Turkey on ualty terrorist attacks by ISIS and vices, it seems clear that Baghdadi succeeding bin Laden as head of April 6, 2015. Four days later he Beirut possibly bring about a merger of and his lieutenants may be on the al-Qaeda, they probably suffered was in an ISIS training camp in Islamic fanatics from other groups. run but are far from crushed and from the focus on bin Laden’s son Syria. Within six months, he was S officials from President To the dismay of the United remain deadly. and heir, Hamza, widely mooted as on display in the beheading vid- Donald Trump on down States and its allies, Baghdadi’s Some counterterrorism analysts al-Qaeda’s future leader. eo and clearly had status. say the Islamic State (ISIS) organisation, held together by suspect that Saif al-Adl, a former Still, the CTC noted, Adl “has Hoxha is believed to have been U should be on its last legs seasoned militants who include colonel in the Egyptian Army’s demonstrated an uncanny capacity recruited through the internet with its short-lived caliphate bro- former Iraqi Army officers and top special forces and one of Osama to adapt to changing circumstanc- and joined other Americans, ken up in late 2017 and its fighters intelligence operatives who served bin Laden’s right-hand men, has es, for example not only surviving such as John Georgelas and Ab- dispersed to the four winds. Saddam Hussein, have in recent moved into the ISIS orbit and may over a decade of imprisonment in dullah Ramo Pazara, who made However, as one terrorist horror weeks carried out dozens of attacks be seeking to revive the organisa- Iran but using it to lengthen his ca- it into ISIS the same way. Both follows another, the warnings from as far apart as Mali, Niger, France, tion. reer.” men, members of wider jihadist experienced counterterrorism spe- Burkina Faso, Afghanistan, Iraq, Adl was associated with Abu Adl is believed to be in Syria, networks in the United States, cialists that ISIS would not go away Syria and Indonesia, the world’s Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian possibly helping ISIS regroup. This have reached relatively senior gently but would strike wherever it most populous Muslim country street thug who led a deadly break- suspicion has been heightened by positions in the ISIS hierarchy, could until it reorganises are prov- and increasingly a linchpin in ISIS’s away faction that coalesced into the appearance of a jihadist master US sources said. ing to be deadly accurate. drive to reorganise from the splin- the Islamic State in Iraq, the fore- plan thought to have been largely The Trump administration seems tered territories it holds in Iraq and runner of ISIS. drawn up by Adl, al-Qaeda’s opera- sively, a British-led reversal of the to have accepted the harsh real- Syria. The Combating Terror Centre tions chief. ‘rising unity of Europe,’ offering a ity by announcing it was reversing The Washington Institute for (CTC) at the US Military Academy Brian Fishman, a counterter- prime opportunity to ‘declare an Is- plans to dismantle the US State De- Near East Policy recently stressed said the two met in a guesthouse rorism expert at the CTC, said the lamic state — the caliphate,” Ruth- partment’s special unit overseeing that defeating ISIS and other jihad- in Kandahar, Pakistan, in 1999 and seven-stage plan mapped out how ven observed. the war against ISIS. ist organisations militarily is essen- Adl “found that he had a lot in com- jihadists could conquer the world Although the master plan would Ten days earlier, Trump boasted tial but the “real objective should mon with Zarqawi, including an by 2020 and outlined the restora- seem to have foundered, its struc- that five of ISIS’s “most wanted” be” eliminating the Muslim griev- ‘uncompromising’ nature.” tion of the historic caliphate, that ture implies that jihadist leaders leaders had been captured by US ances that fuel extremism. The CTC report said Adl con- ended with the collapse of the Ot- are adhering to a strategy that is and Iraqi forces, which lured them ISIS militants recently repledged vinced bin Laden to invest in Zar- toman Empire after the first world more clear-cut than has widely into a trap from their hideouts in their support for Baghdadi in what qawi’s nascent organisation, which war, in Syria between 2013 and been believed. If Adl is operational Syria through Baghdad’s intelli- is believed to be their first such allowed it to establish a training 2016. again, more dangers lie ahead. gence service. declaration of allegiance to him camp in Herat, Pakistan, a vital That effort, of course, failed but Fishman observed in his book Among those taken was Ismail al- since the group’s caliphate was step in the eventual emergence of it validated the reported master “The Master Plan: ISIS, al-Qaeda Eithawi, identified as a close aide torn apart by US-led Western and ISIS. plan, which was apparently smug- and the Jihadi Strategy for Final to ISIS’s fugitive leader Abu Bakr regional forces in 2017. gled out of Iran by Adl on 42 pages Victory” that Baghdadi’s procla- al-Baghdadi, self-proclaimed ca- In a statement on social media, Some counterterrorism of yellowing paper. mation of the caliphate in Mosul in liph of the world’s 1.5 billion Mus- the militants declared: “To infuri- Since then “it has seemed re- June 2014 closely follows the plan’s lims. So far, Baghdadi has evaded ate and terrorise the infidels, we analysts suspect that Saif markably prescient,” observed timetable, with Stage Seven, “The capture in a global manhunt. renew our pledge of loyalty to the al-Adl has moved into the Malise Ruthven in the New York Final Victory,” predicting that the The other four leaders were not commander of the faithful and the ISIS orbit and may be Review of Books. world’s Muslims “will rally under a identified by the US-led anti-ISIS caliph of the Muslims, the mujahid seeking to revive the “Stages One and Two — ‘The single banner of overthrow the re- coalition but Iraqi sources identi- Sheikh Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi al- organisation. Awakening’ (2000-03) and ‘The maining ‘apostate Muslim regimes fied one as Saddam al-Jammel, Husseini al-Qurashi, may God pre- Eye-Opening’ (2003-06) — men- and destroy Israel’.” a Syrian who controlled an ISIS serve him.” After the United States invaded tion attacks against US targets in The plan, even when viewed stronghold around Deir ez-Zor in By using the honorific “al- Afghanistan in response to 9/11, Iraq to provoke direct conflict with as a millennial fantasy, suggests north-eastern Syria. Qurashi,” Baghdadi’s followers are Adl holed up in Iran — or was held America, and doubtless reflect an that, although ISIS seems to be Eithawi was the central figure in trumpeting his claim to be a son there for some years, the circum- element of hindsight following the struggling desperately, Adl is de- the capture of the ISIS chieftains of al-Qurashi clan of Saudi Arabia stances are not clear — and avoided US occupation (of Afghanistan). termined to resurrect the jihadist on May 9. He was seized by Turkish and thus a direct descendant of the the US attacks that decimated al- “The subsequent stages, howev- cause in preparation for that final authorities in February and handed Prophet Mohammad. Qaeda’s leadership. er, invite no such suspicion. ‘Stage battle and may reunite al-Qaeda over to Iraq’s military intelligence In Islam, the caliph must be of Adl and others in bin Laden’s in- Three — Standing Upright (2007- and ISIS. apparatus. Iraqi and US agents the Prophet’s family. Baghdadi’s ner circle opposed the 9/11 opera- 10)’ — envisions jihadist expand- If that’s the case, he can be ex- used his Telegram messaging app claim is difficult to verify but for tion because they felt it would en- ing their operations across Syria pected to employ his professional on his mobile phone to lure the Muslims it’s a powerful symbol danger the Taliban, which allowed and into Lebanon and able to strike military skills of avoiding major others from Syria into Iraq, Iraqi of- that has elevated ISIS above other al-Qaeda to incubate and he was both Israel and Turkey. set-piece confrontations with ji- ficials said. jihadist movements and will un- right. “Stage Four — ‘Recuperation hadism’s foes — primarily the There’s no doubt this was a body doubtedly be a major boost for re- The CTC reported that it is “un- and Power (2010-13)’ — predicted United States — while ISIS is weak blow to ISIS as it struggles to rein- cruiting new militants for what is clear where Adl stood in the schism that the jihadis would overthrow and eschew “the opportunism of vent itself but the group, like other shaping up to be a global conflict. between bin Laden and Zarqawi regimes across the Middle East (a bin Laden and Khaled Sheikh Mo- jihadist organisations before it, has What ISIS’s next moves will be due to a lack of primary source striking if inaccurate prediction of hammed (a key 9/11 planner) while proven to be extremely resilient in are anybody’s guess. However, documentation” but, it added, Adl the ‘Arab spring’). pursuing a meticulous cost-benefit absorbing such shocks. piecing together fragments of in- “raised ideas that the Islamic State “Stage Five — ‘Declaring the analysis before taking action,” se- The fear is that this sort of rever- formation obtained by Western and would later champion.” State’ (2013-16) — predicts, impres- curity analyst Ari Weisfuse said. May 27, 2018 13 Fighting Terrorism What drives Tunisian foreign fighters? New study offers answers

Stephen Quillen of disillusionment was exacerbated by the perceived failure of Tunisia’s Tunis 2011 revolution, which the majority said they participated in and were unisian foreign fighters are initially optimistic about. motivated by a range of Other common denominators political, economic and re- were low levels of education and T ligious factors and do not prior disposition to criminal or il- share a unified set of moral convic- licit behaviour. Less than 15% of tions or fit a “particular social or the survey’s respondents said they intellectual profile,” state survey re- attended university but nearly 70% sults published by the Tunisian In- were at one time using drugs, alco- stitute for Strategic Studies (ITES), hol or other illicit substances, often a think-tank run by the Tunisian from an early age. presidency. This meshes with previous re- The survey, funded by the Neth- search indicating that jihadist foot- erland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, soldiers often have criminal back- Major challenge. Tunisian anti-terrorism brigade officers stand guard outside the Bouchoucha is based on a questionnaire and grounds and are less motivated by military base in Tunis. (Reuters) in-depth interviews with 82 indi- deep-rooted religious piety than by viduals convicted of terror offences, revenge, a misplaced sense of hero- than a religion of war and armed model generations… This is what ers of their nationality, imprisoning including 58 prospective foreign ism or violence. combat,” they described violence by has encouraged the returnees com- them indefinitely or keeping them fighters and returnees. Psychiatrist Marc Sageman, a for- “terrorist groups,” such as al-Qaeda ing back from the hotbeds of armed under strict surveillance on their The results indicated that the mer CIA operative who has studied or the Islamic State (ISIS), as a “le- conflicts to believe that they are ad- return, all strategies that come with jihadists surveyed did not suffer the biographies of hundreds of ji- gitimate and inevitable reaction” to vocating a tolerant view of Islam, significant legal and practical chal- disproportionately from poverty, hadists, said “religion has a role but foreign aggression, though most did although their declarations remain lenges. unemployment, neglect or other so- it is a role of justification.” not consider violence against Tuni- replete with the rhetoric of violence The ITES study states that “ar- cio-economic conditions often cit- Speaking to the New Statesman in sian citizens permissible. and hatred.” resting or keeping all [foreign fight- ed as driving factors for extremism. 2016, he said: “To give themselves a There have been six confirmed While most foreign fighters ex- ers] under surveillance on their re- They did, however, share a sense of bit more legitimacy, they use Islam terror incidents on Tunisian soil pressed a desire to reintegrate into turn to Tunisia is both an infeasible disillusionment with the state and as their justification. It’s not about since 2011, most by Tunisians claim- society, it is unclear how many and ineffective use of resources,” anger at perceived injustice and op- religion, it’s about identity… You ing affiliation with ISIS or al-Qaeda turned away from extremist beliefs and heavy-handed security practic- pression. identify with the victims, [with] the and directed against foreigners or and no longer pose a threat, the es run the risk of increasing rather “Tunisia is a country of injus- guys being killed by your enemies.” Tunisian security services. study’s authors said. than curbing terrorism. tice… a country of confinement/ “You don’t have the most reli- “When Islam orders us to defend “Based on the interviews con- Instead, the study advocated ex- imprisonment… It tried us for our gious folks going there,” he added. Muslims, there is no other choice ducted with our population sample, panding rehabilitation and de-rad- ideas,” said one respondent quoted except using violence… but is it it cannot be categorically ascer- icalisation programmes for foreign anonymously in the survey. (called) violence when it is self-de- tained whether the (foreign fight- fighters, investing in educational “Tunisia has no state. Tunisia has Tunisian jihadists fence?” asked one respondent. ers) have really repented their pre- opportunities and undergoing a a gang which governs it,” said an- surveyed did not suffer The study’s authors said: “This vious acts or adopted a less radical thorough “reassessment of current other. disproportionately from contradiction between, on the one mode of thinking,” said the authors. Tunisian security policies, with an The view that the Tunisian gov- hand, the recognition that Islam is a “What is known is that almost half eye towards lessening the present ernment is corrupt, abusive and op- poverty, unemployment, religion of tolerance and peace and associate the concept of ideal soci- reliance on repressive measures.” pressive was prevalent. Nearly all neglect or other socio- the search for justificatory evidence ety with the community in which “Many (foreign fighters) justify — 90% of the foreign fighters — as- economic conditions. in favour of violence and terrorism, sharia is adopted.” their radicalism based upon feeling sociate Tunisia, either totally or par- on the other hand, is the result of With the remnants of ISIS’s failed oppressed by the government; re- tially, with the image of “the country Tunisian foreign fighters’ views indoctrination, recruitment strate- caliphate under assault in Syria, laxing some restrictions on non-vi- of injustice…” wrote the study’s au- on religion and ethics seem to re- gies and young people’s ignorance where thousands of Tunisians are olent Salafi organisations might re- thors. “Tunisia was also described veal a confused understanding of of religious precepts.” believed to have travelled to fight, duce the potential for radicalisation as a country that fights Islam and Islam, according to the study’s au- In the end, they adopt “the il- authorities face a pressing concern among vulnerable populations,” the Muslims and as a country that wants thors. lusory impression that every sin- about how to deal with Tunisia’s study said. its citizens to abandon their religion While most foreign fighters asked gle act they perform constitutes a returnees. Many citizens, wary of to serve Western interests.” said they “agreed that Islam is a re- step in the process of reviving the increased terror or instability, advo- Stephen Quillen is an Arab Weekly Many respondents said their sense ligion of tolerance and peace, rather type of Islam embraced by earlier cate either stripping foreign fight- correspondent in Tunis. Municipal elections showcase the metamorphosis of former Tunisian Salafist hub

Lamine Ghanmi Christmas or selling beer. and sub-Saharan Africa. “Most young people like me travel unfair for us and reminds us of the Now, Sejnane, which overlooks The government says about 3,000 south of the country for work for neglect and underdevelopment we lush green plains with ripe fields Tunisians joined the Islamic State a few weeks and then we return are in,” Aissa said. Sejnane of wheat and barley, is no differ- in Syria and Iraq and other violent home. The cycle is continuing. Tunisia’s fundamental law, ap- ent than other small Tunisian groups in the Middle East. Estimates There are no manufacturing plants, proved in 2014, and the local au- ejnane, a town of about 6,000 towns with its sidewalk cafes, well- by Western think-tanks put the no tourism or farming projects here thority legislation adopted last April people nested on the north- furnished shops and fairly clean number of Tunisian jihadists abroad for people to provide work despite decentralise power and resources to ern Tunisian Mogods moun- streets. higher. the huge potential in tourism and benefit local authorities. The mu- S tains, could be the highest per Most of the inhabitants are poor “I talk to my son, who is univer- water supply.” nicipal elections on May 6 are to capita area in Tunisia to have sent but lead a peaceful life. There is sity graduate, about the end of this He and other locals often say that be followed with local and regional Islamist jihadists to Syria. However, hardly a police or national guard wave of jihadism. I’m reassured that “about 80%” of the population of polls. radical Islamism in the small city, presence downtown. The signs of it has ebbed,” said Bechir Saadallah, Sejnane lives below the poverty line The centralisation that charac- more famous for its Berber pottery, peace and security in the city tell a retired teacher. “It seems that it and 60% is unemployed. terised post-independence Tunisia appears to be a thing of the past. of the change in Sejnane and in the was like a youthful fever swaying “Besides all the chronic problems, led to inequality in social and eco- A tour of the town on a sunny May rest of Tunisia since 2015 when the many driven by the loss of illusions such as the high cost of living, the nomic development between the day, as residents shopped in the country’s security agencies retook about improving their lot here or of most serious problem that makes more developed coastal areas and marketplace or sipped mint tea on the initiative after pro-Islamic State changing their lives. us miserable is the water problem,” the marginalised regions of the in- cafe terraces, did not offer a hint of jihadists carried out terrorist attacks “At that time, many promises said construction worker Mohamed terior, the south and the north-west. radicalisation. In the language used in Tunis and Sousse. were made to vulnerable youth who Amri. “Most of the people are like Some northern areas, like Sejnane, by the population or the way they After 2015, and the election of had no state to turn to. There were me here. It is very difficult to feed are particularly behind in standard dress, no one would guess there had secular leaders, security forces re- no parties with alternative narra- my four children. My 17-year-old of living. been attempts by Islamists in 2012 versed the downward spiral that tives. Security institutions had be- daughter felt sympathy for me and The law spelling out the preroga- and 2013 to turn Sejnane into a Tali- had left the country on the brink of come irrelevant,” he said. dropped out of school to take a job tives of local authorities gives mu- ban-style holdout. collapse. in another town to help me.” nicipalities wider power for the first Sejnane voters confirmed the Before that, jihadists exploited “I would like to look in the eyes of time over the management of local change May 6 by choosing secularist the security void brought about by Sejnane voters confirmed officials and tell them I did my duty and regional affairs, including over candidates for most of its 18 munici- the dismantling of the intelligence the change May 6 by and it is your turn to do your duty budget resources and local assets. pal seats, official results showed. and security infrastructure, the flow towards this town and its popula- Sejnane has immaterial wealth, Nidaa Tounes, Tunisia’s main secu- of militants and weapons across the choosing secularist tion,” he added. such as the artistic touch of its lar party, won six seats and four border with Libya and the tolerance candidates for most of its His friend Aissa Chergui, a brick- women. Female artisans there keep leftist and liberal groups picked up for radical Salafism. municipal 18 seats. layer, said: “This area has huge re- alive the tradition of Berber pottery seven seats. Ennahda, the main Is- Islamist-led governments at the sources; the sea nearby, the forest that made the town known around lamist party, won five seats. time failed to address the creeping Ameur al-Gharbi, a 40-year-old and the mountain. Water is abun- the world. Tunisia has requested With a turnout of more than 47%, danger of jihadism at home or from unemployed university graduate, dant and the land is rich.” that UNESCO list Sejnane’s pottery Sejnane was well above the national Tunisia to the rest of the region. said: “The leaders of fanatical ex- “Most people pray for a new start among humanity’s heritage. turnout of about 35%. They were driven by a mixture of tremism were almost illiterate. They after the elections. We have to give Sejnane’s inhabitants are looking Voting in a democratic election ineptitude and complacency about drew naive youth with their prom- hope to our children here.” forward to being on UNESCO’s list. is a far cry from the first two years the role of radical Salafists and the ises. Some believed them and ended Sejnane’s region has two dams. They are, however, pinning more after the fall of the Ben Ali regime mainstream Islamists’ ability to up joining jihadists abroad but most One was built in 1994 with a capac- hope on the newly elected sons and when fanatical Islamists installed tame the ardour of radical militants. found the promises to be hollow.” ity of 113 million cubic metres and daughters of Sejnane to make the makeshift Sharia courts and a prison The issue remains sensitive. A “When the promises of the fa- the other was erected in May 2017. city’s new municipal council a ticket where they jailed “disbelievers” for parliamentary committee is inves- natics evaporated, those of other “Our water flows south and we out of neglect and marginalisation. straying from the Islamists’ view tigating networks involved in the parties replaced them but poverty are thirsty in summer. We love our of Islam by showing disrespect for departure of hundreds of jihadists and massive unemployment have country and we want to share re- Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly prescribed dress codes, celebrating to conflict zones in Syria, Iraq, Libya remained with us,” he pointed out. sources but the current situation is correspondent in Tunis. 14 May 27, 2018 News & Analysis Maghreb Mauritania’s ruling party eyes lion’s share of voters in elections

Lamine Ghanmi ed Mauritanian President Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi. Ould Abdel Aziz was elected president in 2009 with Tunis 53% of the vote and re-elected in 2014, with 82% of the vote. auritania’s ruling Union Opposition groups have ex- for the Republic party pressed concern that Ould Abdel said it has recruited Aziz lacks respect for the constitu- M more than 1 million tion, which limits presidents to two members as it prepares for munici- 5-year terms in office, and that his pal and parliamentary elections in Union for the Republic party works September. Mauritania’s popula- to allow him to stay in power until tion numbers about 4.4 million 2024 or longer. and the number of eligible voters is Ould Abdel Aziz announced this estimated at 1.4 million. year that he would abide by the “The operation to list mem- constitution’s two-term limit and bers for the Union of the Repub- not seek to change it or extend his lic (broke all) records. It yielded tenure but supporters and govern- 1,116,197 members,” said party ment officials have encouraged President Sidi Mohamed Ould Ma- him to pursue another term. ham. “Such strong recruitment of Analysts said Ould Abdel Aziz members is a first in the country’s was unlikely to stay in power, how- history.” ever, and that the party’s main challenge would be avoiding in- fighting over who would be his re- Mauritania’s ruling party placement. said it has recruited more The Union for the Republic has than 1 million members; begun a 3-week election process to the total number of eligible choose local leaders of the party’s voters is estimated 20,000 cells, each of which has Politics of recruitment. A July 2017 file picture shows supporters of Mauritanian President gathering at 1.4 million. around 50 members. and holding banners during a rally in Nouakchott. (AFP) “The elections in the local cells The country’s elections, followed will likely stir rifts and many prob- by presidential elections next year, lems in rural communities and Ould Maham urged officials “We have decided to participate local authorities and beyond them will test Mauritania’s civil authori- among tribes… Such problems to “keep the unity of the party in these elections because we do to the international opinion that ties’ abilities to steer political pow- are likely to influence the climate through entente and compromise.” not accept to stay at the margins Mauritanians do not want elections er away from the military, which within the party,” said Mauritanian “Those who gain the majority in of a process leading to a political to extend the status quo,” said a has a history of interfering in the news site Sahara Media in an analy- the cells should not sideline the mi- changeover in Mauritania,” FNDU senior FNDU official. political process. sis nority that lost the vote,” he said. leader Mohamed Ould Moloud said “The rally would constitute a Analysts say democratic prac- “The fighting among the union’s Mauritania’s leading opposition in a statement. turning point in Mauritania’s dem- tices have yet to take hold in Mau- factions will give the election oper- grouping, the National Forum for The FNDU called for supporters ocratic path if a huge crowd were to ritania and that the military, con- ation a degree of transparency but Democracy and Unity (FNDU), said to take part in a march June 4 start- join it. If it turns out to be a normal trolled by Mohamed Ould Abdel it could threaten the success of the it would compete in the upcoming ing at the Saudi Mosque in Nouak- rally, then the authorities will get Aziz, retains significant economic operation amid the doubts about parliamentary and municipal polls. chott, within earshot of the presi- the message (that) there is no pres- and military power. Ould Abdel the next political stage and the ab- It had previously boycotted elec- dential palace. sure to change the situation with Aziz rose to power in 2008 after sence of renewed talk about a third tions during Ould Abdel Aziz’s time “If the rally draws a huge number the same people staying in power,” leading a coup that deposed elect- mandate for the president.” in office. of people, it will send a message to the official added.

Viewpoint Chaos in southern Libya could spin out of control

country’s 10-dinar banknote, has those fears. “There is a serious been badly damaged. The terminal risk that these clashes will dete- at the airport, closed for more than riorate into an ethnic conflict,” he Michel Cousins three years because of clashes, is said. Given the presence of armed in ruin. groups in the south coming from The scale of the hostilities was neighbouring countries, this had n the chaos of Libya, nowhere highlighted in a report by the UN the potential to go regional. is more conflict-ridden than Support Mission in Libya that not- “The Sabha case demonstrates the south of the country, oth- ed that nearly half of the 36 attacks the need for Libya to work with erwise known as Fezzan. on hospitals in the country in the southern neighbouring states to Killings, kidnappings, past year were on Sabha Medical secure its borders and resolve the robberies, attacks on pub- Centre. From February-May this matters of human trafficking, flows Ilic buildings and facilities, acute year, it was shelled or hit by bullet of fighters and smuggling goods,” shortages of fuel, food and other fire 15 times. Salame said. necessities, remnants of the Islam- Complicating the chaos, the Most southerners seem con- ic State lurking in the background, conflict between the Tebus and vinced that the GNA and the LNA the smuggling of people, drugs and 6th Infantry Brigade has taken on do not care about them or their weapons — this and so much more a national dimension, becoming problems and that they are inter- has been the reality for southern a proxy war between the Libyan ested in the south only as a place Libyans since the 2011 revolution. National Army (LNA) of Field- to extend their power and control Feeding the chaos have been Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the while denying it to the other. There Fezzan’s tribal and ethnic rival- Tripoli-based Presidency Council’s is deep alienation that sometimes ries. Since 2011, in the absence of Government of National Accord expresses itself in sympathy for a central government capable of (GNA) under Fayez al-Sarraj. the Qaddafi era, when the south imposing its authority, there have The brigade had supported the was anything but sidelined in been regular outbreaks of fighting GNA while the Tebus forces were Libyan affairs. between the powerful Awlad Sulei- nominally linked to the LNA. Sarraj’s talks in Tripoli in May man tribe and the Qaddadfa, the However, in February, eastern with a Fezzan delegation and his tribe of former dictator Muammar tribal elders, who were supposed announcement that a military Qaddafi; between Awlad Suleiman to mediate a truce between the 6th force for the south would be set up and Tebus; and between Tebus and and the Tebus, offered legitimacy are seen by many as nothing more Tuaregs. to the former as an LNA unit. The than opportunistic. Since February, in Fezzan’s LNA then provided it with weap- Southerners remain equally capital, Sabha, the main conflict ons and ammunition that Tripoli suspicious of the LNA. has been between local Tebus and had promised, along with funding, “People in the south do not re- 6th Infantry Brigade, composed of but never delivered. ally care about either Sarraj or Haf- members of Awlad Suleiman. It has Matters came to a head in tar,” explained a senior southern Mounting strife. A Tebu fighter holds the casing of a tank shell in wreaked havoc on the city. early May. The man appointed by tribal elder. “They are interested the neighbourhood of Tayuri in the southern Libyan city of Sabha. Dozens of civilians have been Haftar as military governor of the only in who is going to help them, (Reuters) killed in the clashes. Among those south, Major-General Al-Mabrouk by providing money and support, killed were students at the uni- al-Ghazawi, arrived in Sabha and and who is going to take them seri- versity, which had to be closed. ordered a ceasefire between the an immediate attack, driving the is that once Derna is dealt with, it ously.” Homes have been shelled and the warring parties. brigade from Sabha castle and its will turn its attention to Sabha. The head of the Council of Fez- city’s iconic fort, which dominates The Tebus, who were already nearby headquarters. There is concern that this could zan Tribes and Towns, Ali Abu the skyline and figures on the drifting away from Haftar and the For the moment, they are the create ethnic conflict in Libya that Sbeihah, refused to attend Sarraj’s LNA, demanded to know whether winners in Sabha and have moved would spill over into a regional Tripoli meeting. He said there was the 6th was an official LNA unit. to cement their position through war, drawing in Chad. The Awlad calm in Sabha on May 21, when he Most southerners Ghazawi said it was. The response alliances with local tribes and also Suleiman, the LNA and their sup- was interviewed, but an uneasy seem convinced that infuriated them. Their war, a mem- to the Awlad Suleiman. porters are already presenting the one. People were waiting to see ber of their Sabha crisis committee But for how long? Tebu victors as Chadian invaders. how the rivalry between the east the GNA and the LNA declared, was no longer just with Ghazawi has been reported say- The Tebus claim that many of the and west of Libya would play out do not care about the 6th, it was with the LNA. ing that the 6th withdrew because Awlad Suleiman are from Niger. in the south. The Tebus, well-armed and the LNA could not afford to fight In his report to the US Security them or their considered among the best fighting on two fronts — Sabha and Derna Council on May 21, UN special Michel Cousins is a contributor to problems. forces in the country, launched — at the same time. The inference envoy Ghassan Salame highlighted The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. May 27, 2018 15 Spotlight Migration Self-appointed Iraqi rescuer helping migrants through the internet

Oumayma Omar was prompted by a Facebook post. about imminent cases of drowning “It was a mayday call by an Iraqi was correct,” Saab said. migrant stranded with others on In one case, he found out that Baghdad a dinghy in the middle of the Ae- his estranged mother was on one gean Sea between the Turkish and of the boats in peril. “It was an in- illions of people rely on Greek coasts,” he said. “At first, the credible and strange coincidence smartphones and so- matter looked strange and impos- that among the cases I succeeded cial media applications sible but I was determined to do to assist was my mother who had M but, for refugees and something about it. I could com- been separated from my father for migrants from Iraq, Syria and else- municate with the post’s author years. I was shocked when I saw where who have flooded to Europe who left a phone number to try to her message on a Facebook page in recent years, the internet age identify their location and alert the used by migrants in trouble. For- provided lifesaving platforms. Turkish Coast Guards.” tunately, I could help saving her WhatsApp, Viber and Facebook Internet availability between and tens of people who shared the Messenger along with tools such Greek islands close to the Turkish same boat,” he said. as GPS and Google Maps were in- coast made it possible for Saab to The so-called death journey of il- strumental for Iraqi humanitarian connect with the migrants, who legal migrants normally starts with activist Khaldoun al-Saab in saving usually leave a number along with a trek from Turkey to Greece. Mi- scores of migrants from drowning their distress call on social media grants then travel by land to Mac- A glimmer of hope. Iraqi self-appointed rescuer Khaldoun al-Saab. in the Mediterranean during the platforms. edonia, Serbia, Hungary and West- (Oumayma Omar) perilous sea crossing between Tur- “The ‘mission’ starts when con- ern Europe. The most perilous part key and Greece. tact with the stranded migrants is of the journey is the sea cross- established. They explain as much ing between Turkey and Greece, including Iraq, Turkey and Ger- “It is very difficult to keep track as possible where they are situated where rickety and overcrowded many. of illegal migrants whose number The Iraqi government is and then with the help of Google dinghies have capsized, causing “The majority of the activists increased dramatically after the facilitating the voluntary Maps, which is essential in any the drowning of tens of migrants. are migrants who had bitter expe- Islamic State conquered Iraqi cities repatriation of Iraqi rescue operation, I try to calculate People smugglers are paid riences. They are volunteers and in 2014,” Nowruz said, adding that migrants by offering free the latitude and longitude of their $7,000-$10,000 per person for pas- come from different nationalities, most migrants were between the sage. More than 1 million people, including Iraqi, Syrian, Palestinian ages of 15-25 and that most had re- return flights. spot before alerting the Turkish and Greek Coast Guards so that mostly fleeing violence in Syria, and Iranian,” Saab said. turned voluntarily after facing dif- they can follow up and go to the Iraq and Afghanistan, crossed into He said the group rescued 50-60 ficulties with their asylum request The activist, who works with a rescue,” Saab explained. Europe in 2015 in search of security migrants each time, especially af- and growing disillusioned with the US security agency in Baghdad, He recalled that in the begin- and a stable future. ter setting an emergency hotline lack of opportunities. was thrust into humanitarian ac- ning, he faced difficulties with Saab recalled with much sadness — 112, which migrants could access The Iraqi government is facilitat- tion after surviving a kidnapping the Turkish Coast Guards, which the drowning of a boat in which more quickly. ing the voluntary repatriation of by an armed group in 2015. did not want to answer his calls more than 50 migrants died be- Sattar Nowruz, a spokesman for Iraqi migrants by offering free re- “After my liberation, I decided to for fear that he could be a migrant fore help could arrive. After that the Iraqi Ministry of Migration and turn flights, Nowruz said. focus my efforts on rescuing peo- smuggler. “Some did not bother re- incident, he said he would expand Displacement, said the govern- ple and assisting the needy who sponding and others were not con- his network and establish an emer- ment has no accurate data about Oumayma Omar, based in take risks or experience life-threat- vinced about our calls but, lately, gency group for humanitarian re- the number of Iraqi migrants, the Baghdad, is a contributor to the ening dangers,” Saab said. they have been cooperative after lief, which counts some 30 men majority of whom have crossed il- Culture and Society section of His decision to assist migrants it was proven that our information and women in different countries, legally to Europe. The Arab Weekly. Egypt’s disillusioned youth tempted by migration abroad

Amr Emam country’s political scene. “The political parties involve youth only when there are elec- Cairo tions,” the speaker said on May 16. “Other than this, youth are usually ith the fifth annual forgotten.” Youth Forum taking Sisi responded by calling on the place in Cairo, there leaders of Egypt’s more than 100 W has been a large spot- political parties, many of whom light on the youth emigrating from were attending the forum, to pro- Arab countries to seek work and vide a means to empower Egypt’s other opportunities abroad. youth within their parties. Speaking on the final day of the “You cannot ask me to give the forum, Egyptian President Abdel chance for youth, while you do not Fattah al-Sisi highlighted educa- do this in your parties,” Sisi said. tion reforms made by his govern- The exclusion of the youth from ment but acknowledged that these politics is endemic across the Mid- should have been made earlier. dle East. “The current education [system] Jordanian economist Hosam is not helping prepare a workforce Ayesh called for more to be done to suitable for the demands of the la- keep Arab talent at home, where it bour market,” he said. is most needed. With overpopulation and lack “Arab governments cannot of opportunity major hurdles, spend these huge amounts of many Egyptian youth are looking money on the education of the to migrate. When the US Embassy new generations and then allow in Cairo started accepting applica- the most skilful and educated tions as part of the Diversity Immi- of these generations to leave for grant Visa Programme, Hatem Na- jobs in Arab Gulf hospitals, as well who leave or want to leave are af- ment and lack of opportunities other countries,” Ayesh said. “This bil, a doctor, was among the first to as sought immigration visas to ter high-paying jobs, better living that are the problems. Many Egyp- emigration costs Arab economies submit his application. Europe. However, none of his at- conditions and a better future for tians are pointing to stagnant polit- huge amounts of money.” Egypt has a young population, tempts have been successful. their children — things they will ical conditions as a source of their However, for those like Nabil, with about two-thirds of its people Many other highly educated not achieve by staying.” disillusionment. waiting for Arab governments to under the age of 30 and a quarter Egyptians have the same thing in Soon after the 2011 uprising that find solutions is not an option. For of them between the ages of 18 and mind. Nabil said he had met Egyp- ended the rule of autocrat Hosni them and their families, the clock 29 unemployed. tian doctors, engineers, teachers, Mubarak, a national poll showed is ticking. In 2017, about 800,000 Egyp- accountants and journalists com- According to the Arab a marked decline in the number of When Nabil graduated from the tians, most Nabil’s age and young- peting to be accepted in the Diver- Youth Survey 2018, 52% youngsters who wanted to leave College of Medicine a few years er, submitted applications to West- sity Immigrant Visa Programme. of Egypt’s youth now their country. The general feeling ago, he was stationed at a rural ern embassies in Egypt. Only 3,500 The desire to emigrate is high view the “Arab Spring” among the nation’s youth at the clinic by the Egyptian Health Min- of them were approved by the among Egypt’s youth, particularly time was of hope and empower- istry. He received a monthly salary programme that makes 50,000 im- those with university degrees. negatively. ment. of $28. migrant visas available worldwide However, many also complain Seven years later, however, He would never have managed every year. Nabil’s was not among about the departure of Egypt’s best The issue goes beyond Egypt this national zest is nowhere to to buy a flat and get married but them. and brightest from the country. and encompasses the entire Arab be found. According to the Arab for support from his mother. Now, “I would have wished to be ac- “More important than thinking world. A recent Gallup survey Youth Survey 2018, 52% of Egypt’s he earns $282 every month in the cepted,” Nabil, 35, said. “I had of the consequences of the escape found that close to half (46%) youth now view the “Arab Spring” private sector but this is still not hoped I would be able to escape.” of these highly educated people of respondents in North African negatively. enough to put food on the table This was not the first time Nabil, is to know the reasons why these countries, including Egypt, aged One speaker at Egypt’s Youth for his two children or pay for their who works as part of the medical people are leaving their country,” 15-29 in 2017 expressed a desire to Forum, which was enacted by Sisi education. emergency team of a state-owned said Mohamed al-Saadani, a po- emigrate, a 6% increase on the pre- to listen to the voices of Egypt’s “I cannot stay,” Nabil said. “If I bank in Cairo, sought to emigrate. litical science professor at Alex- vious year. youth, complained that youth wait for things to get better here, I He has applied for higher-paying andria University. “Most of those It is not just poverty, unemploy- were largely excluded from the will be waiting for too long.” 16 May 27, 2018 News & Analysis Turkey Turkey’s Kurds may decide Erdogan’s electoral fate

Thomas Seibert In the face of pressure. Suppor- Washington ters of the Peoples’ n Turkey’s polarised political Democratic landscape, Kurdish voters are Party hold likely to play a decisive role in up placards I elections next month. reading Numbering around 10 million “Free Demir- people — approximately 17% of tas” in front Turkey’s electorate — Kurdish vot- of Istanbul’s ers could hand victory to Turkish courthouse, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 21. or prevent the 64-year-old leader (AFP) from crowning his career by secur- ing far-reaching executive powers, boosted by a parliamentary major- ity for his ruling Justice and Devel- opment Party (AKP). Opinion polls indicate Erdog- an’s success in parliamentary and presidential elections June 24 is far from assured. The country is split between supporters and critics of the president, putting the Kurds into a possible role as kingmakers. One reason Erdogan is struggling is the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Demo- cratic Party (HDP), seen at around 10% in polls, a critical juncture be- cause Turkey’s election rules say a party needs at least 10% of the nationwide vote to secure seats in parliament. The HDP won just un- der 11% of the vote in the last par- liamentary elections in November 2015, a result that gave the party 59 seats. field of competitors that could prominent investigative reporter People’s Protection Units (YPG) fighting in an area devastated by With the HDP and the AKP being force him into a run-off on July 8. with the opposition newspaper militia in the Afrin area could de- decades of conflict. the biggest political rivals in the The HDP’s former chairman, Cumhuriyet, who has resigned crease Kurdish support for the AKP. There is no sign of a new peace Kurdish provinces of eastern and Selahattin Demirtas, is among from his newspaper to run for the The president used a television push, something that Erdogan’s south-eastern Anatolia, a failure of Erdogan’s challengers and could HDP as a parliamentary candidate interview in April to tell Kurdish opponents see as a chance for the HDP to overcome the 10% hur- score more than 10%, some polls in Istanbul. voters that the Afrin operation was themselves. “Kurdish supporters dle would boost the AKP’s share of suggest. Demirtas is conducting not directed against Syria’s Kurds of Erdogan are extremely unhap- deputies, said Gunes Murat Tez- his campaign from a prison cell but against “terrorists there,” add- py,” Abdullatif Sener, a former dep- cur, a professor of Kurdish political in north-western Turkey, where To boost its support ing that the YPG had non-Kurdish uty prime minister under Erdogan studies at the University of Central he has been in pre-trial detention fighters from Western countries and now an opposition candidate Florida. since late 2016. Erdogan critics say among non-Kurdish, such as France in its ranks. for parliament, told the Mezopota- “If the HDP fails to cross the the government is trying to keep a urban Erdogan critics, the “My Kurdish brothers in this mya news agency. threshold, most seats [from the strong competitor out of the race. HDP is fielding high- country need to know that we had Given the stakes, government Kurdish region] will go to the AKP,” “Demirtas will be popular in the profile candidates. no quarrel with our Kurdish broth- critics in Turkey say they are con- Tezcur said in an interview. That Kurdish areas,” Tezcur said. “He ers in Afrin,” Erdogan said. cerned that the government could way, Erdogan’s party and its politi- can mobilise people because he Many conservative Kurds have manipulate the elections in the cal partner, the right-wing Nation- has strong name recognition.” The HDP said it will support Mu- favoured the AKP over the HDP in Kurdish region. “Especially in ru- alist Movement Party (MHP), could Before his detention, Demirtas harrem Ince, presidential candi- the past but some Erdogan critics ral areas, pre-prepared ballots for be certain to keep their majority in opened the HDP for non-Kurdish, date of the secularist opposition say the ruling party lacks concrete the AKP and [Erdogan] can easily parliament. However, if the HDP left-leaning voters in Turkey’s big Republican People’s Party (CHP), proposals for progress in the Kurd- replace” actual ballots, said one re-enters parliament, the opposi- cities and won 10% of the vote in in a second round if there is a run- ish region, which includes some of Turkish academic, who spoke on tion will almost certainly have the the 2014 presidential election. Tez- off. Ince has visited Demirtas in Turkey’s poorest districts. condition of anonymity for fear of upper hand in the chamber. cur said a similar result for Demir- prison and has publicly called for A peace process between the reprisals. The HDP also poses a challenge tas was possible this time. the HDP candidate to be released Turkish state and the Kurdistan Another problem is the displace- for Erdogan in the presidential To boost its support among non- so he can campaign. Workers’ Party, a militant group ment of many voters by fighting in vote. Erdogan needs more than Kurdish, urban Erdogan critics, the Erdogan’s decision to send Tur- seen as a terrorist organisation by the Kurdish area in recent years, 50% of the vote for a first-round HDP is fielding high-profile candi- key’s military into neighbouring Turkey and the West, broke down which can make voter registration victory but is facing a crowded dates. One of them is Ahmet Sik, a Syria to fight the mostly Kurdish three years ago, triggering fresh difficult.

Viewpoint The Thessaloniki factor in the Turkish election

he Balkans have had a against him. It evoked associations his Greek counterpart Eleftherios The main problem for Ince — as special place in Turkish with what happened in Sarajevo in Venizelos in 1923. The swap of well as with Aksener — is that nei- politics over the past the months leading up to the first Turkish and Greek subjects of the ther is seen as devout as Erdogan. Yavuz Baydar century. It was there world war. collapsed Ottoman Empire was Ince and Aksener employ populist that its defining feature Having abandoned many of his part of a mutually agreed, peaceful rhetoric and Turkish national- — fierce nationalism pious Kurdish voters in Turkey’s and successful project that could, ism. Both have made negative T— got off the ground in the early south-eastern provinces, Erdogan in some ways, be considered ethnic comments about Syrian refugees 1900s. now seems to want to extend his cleansing. in Turkey. Both have taken anti- The Young Ottomans movement constituency beyond Turkey’s Muharrem Ince, the secular main Western positions. However, even became the Young Turks. Turkish borders. In Sarajevo, he brought up opposition Republican People’s though both seem to be trying to officers posted in the Balkans be- Ottoman grandeur and bashed the Party’s (CHP’s) nominee for presi- edge closer to the mosque, their fore the first world war were sym- West. “European countries claim- dent, claims his paternal grandpar- devout credentials may be suspect pathetic to the ideas that formed ing to be the cradle of civilisation ents were from Thessaloniki. to pious, solidly Erdogan-support- the Turkish republic founded by have failed,” he said, adding that For Erdogan, the Balkan expan- ing voters. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk voters would “not only be choos- sion of his constituency is a pipe In other words, Ince and Aksener was born in Thessaloniki, once part ing a president and deputies” in dream. may run into resistance posed by of the Ottoman Empire and now parliament but also “making a Ince poses a considerable chal- the collective memory of conserva- part of Greece. decision for our country’s upcom- lenge. Ten years younger than Er- tive voters and the new middle This lends an interesting note of ing century.” dogan, Ince is a worthy match for classes. They fear a return to the irony to the current Turkish presi- The vote will decide the nature the president. His talent for riposte old days of military authority. dent’s choice of Bosnia for a rally of Turkey’s government and demo- has energised CHP rallies. Even so, Perhaps this is why Erdogan The asymmetrical ahead of snap elections on June cratic freedoms for the foreseeable Ince may be swimming upstream. seems confident. He is more 24. Turkish President Recep Tayyip future. With less than a month to The anti-Erdogan camp may be focused on dealing with economic campaign Erdogan picked Bosnia as the only go before the election, Erdogan hoping Ince will successfully chal- turbulence than on attacking Ince continues and in European venue to campaign after doesn’t seem to care about Eu- lenge Erdogan if the presidential and Aksener in his trademark pug- three EU countries refused to allow ropean concerns over his badly election goes into a second round. nacious style. the absence of Turkish politicians from campaign- concealed irredentism. However, However, a recent poll by MAK The asymmetrical campaign independent ing on their soil. he is aware that two of his main Consultancy shows Ince at 23.9% continues and in the absence of television news, Thousands of Erdogan’s devoted political challengers have roots in while Erdogan is far ahead with independent television news, Er- followers arrived in Sarajevo from Thessaloniki. 51.4%. MAK’s polling is generally dogan’s challengers can only hope Erdogan’s various parts of Europe to see and Though Meral Aksener, leader considered reliable and, if the he will trip himself up. challengers can hear him — and crucially — to cheer of the relatively new Iyi party, was numbers are right, Erdogan would him on. Interestingly, while in born in Turkey, her parents were win in the first round, eliminating Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish only hope he will Bosnia on May 20, Erdogan raised part of the massive population the chance for Ince to challenge journalist and regular columnist trip himself up. the subject of an assassination plot exchange between Ataturk and him one-on-one. for The Arab Weekly. May 27, 2018 17 Debate Iran Iran doesn’t really care about Muslims if they’re in China or Russia

Ali Alfoneh

ran’s official propaganda depicts the country’s head of state Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the “Guardian Commander of Muslims” — Vali-ye Amr-e Moslemin. He is said to be Ithe protector of Muslims all over the world and a champion of the Palestinian cause. However, the regime in Tehran repeatedly turns a blind eye to the sufferings of Muslims in Russia and China, both of which are con- sidered strategic allies by Iran in its struggle against the United States. The most recent example of the regime’s hypocrisy was Khame- nei’s first reaction to the new US Embassy in Jerusalem and the clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinian protesters. On May 17, Khamenei thundered against Israel: “Beit al-Moqaddas (Jerusalem) is the capital of Pales- tine. America and those greater or smaller than America and its satel- lites can’t do a damned thing about the divine truth and tradition of Blood and thunder. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in Tehran. (AFP) Palestine.” He asked God for absolution for Iran has been just as silent about ing response. It published a reader regime spokesmen make vague the sins of “the martyrs of Pal- re-education camps, in which the comment: “Is there difference The references to “realism” and “raison estine” and prayed for “greater Chinese government incarcerates between Muslims? How come our d’etat,” none of which figures resilience and resistance” for the tens of thousands — if not hun- honourable president constantly agonies of prominently in Khamenei’s deal- “warriors of the path of righteous- dreds of thousands — of Muslims. thinks about the Muslims of Gaza China’s 22 ings with the United States or Is- ness and the holy warriors of the The Independent reported that Chi- but ignores Chinese Muslims?” rael. In the case of the United States path of God.” nese Muslim detainees are forced The Theological Seminary in million and Israel, the ayatollah takes upon Remarkably, Khamenei did to drink alcohol, eat pork and Qom issued a public statement Muslim himself the mantle of anti-Ameri- not utter a single word about the denounce their religion in Maoist condemning “killing of many population canism and anti-Zionism. Chinese government’s decision to “self-criticism” group sessions. Muslims and closure of mosques These vestments no longer cover dispatch more than 1 million Com- The agonies of China’s 22 million in the hands of a racist bunch” but are not the hypocrisy of the regime in Teh- munist officials to live with Muslim Muslim population are not new nor Khamenei, the self-proclaimed new nor is ran. Iran is nothing but a republic families in the western region is Khamenei’s silence about it. Commander Guardian and protec- of dissembling for the Muslim of Xinjiang. The so-called home During the July 2009 Urumqi tor of Muslims, remained silent. Khamenei’s cause. It chants about Islam and stays serve the purpose of political riots, which led to the death and Tehran is just as silent when it silence Muslim but averts its gaze when indoctrination of China’s Uyghur post-riot disappearance of Muslim comes to the plight of the Muslim about it. expedient. As its head of state, Muslim population. It constitutes Uyghur activists, the Ahmadinejad population of Russia, in particular Khamenei bears the responsibility the most invasive form of govern- government described the Uyghurs Chechens. This silence raises ques- for the hypocrisy and the dissem- ment surveillance of citizens. as “terrorists.” tions about the Iranian regime’s bling. At the time, the Tabnak News sincerity on the Palestinian and Agency, which was close to the other Islamic causes. These appear Ali Alfoneh is a non-resident Iran is nothing but a former chief commander of the to be a matter of expediency rather senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri republic of dissembling for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, than belief. Centre for the Middle East at the the Muslim cause. Mohsen Rezaei, offered an interest- When there is any criticism, Atlantic Council. Iran’s ‘hybrid nationalism’ has implications for Iranian politics

first performed and recorded by the than religious centres, but are not clerics, are more pragmatic. Many iconic Iranian singer Gholam-Hos- necessarily secularists and may Turning to activists admire [Russian President sein Banan,” said Nima Mina, sen- even embrace a rising wave of “hybrid Vladimir] Putin as a strong leader Gareth Smyth ior lecturer at the School of Oriental Sufism. nationalism” who scares the West.” and African Studies, London. “Nei- Within the religious camp, would be hard The challenge posed by hybrid ther Khaleqi nor Gol-e Golab nor Golkar points out the differences with nationalism was recently illus- fter “America First” Banan had any known ideological between the Hezbollahis and tradi- Khamenei in trated by the apparent discovery of comes “Iran First.” In affinity with Iran’s Islamists. Since tionalists. The Hezbollahis support the remains of Reza Shah in Teh- its official response to 1979, ‘Ay Iran’ is often played in velayat-e faqih, the constitutional power. ran. “The family wants the body US President Donald gatherings inside and outside Iran principle giving pre-eminence to returned, while Iranian national- Trump’s decision to by Iranians who don’t recognise the the supreme leader. The tradition- ists want it buried where they can reject the US com- official anthem as their own.” alists are sceptical of politics and visit the ‘father of modern Iran’,” mitmentsA under the 2015 nu- Mina said the use of “Ay Iran” may follow Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, said Golkar. “Hardliners want it clear agreement between Iran and is a “sign of desperation.” He said the Iranian-born Najaf cleric, rather destroyed or buried secretly.” world powers, Tehran denounced Tehran’s propagandists are “aware than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian nationalism could be an “Trump’s absurd insults against that sectarian religious propaganda supreme leader. easier option, then, for Iran once the great Iranian nation.” splits Iranian society and has no Golkar traces divisions to the the 78-year-old Khamenei is gone The statement, issued by the potential to mobilise the regular keeping, or not, of pet dogs and the and a new supreme leader is in Foreign Ministry, asserts that “the armed forces, let alone the popula- names chosen for offspring. Those place but is that soon enough? people of Iran will, with calm and tion at large.” with a religious world-view pick Golkar is unsure. “Crises can ac- confidence, continue their path The relationship between dynas- Ali and Fatima. Post-modernists cumulate. Imagine a hot summer. towards progress and develop- ties, religion and nation in Iran is a choose Cyrus and Nazanin. Already with the lowest rainfall for ment.” It lauds Iranians as “brave long, complex one. Historians agree Golkar suggests the Iran’s leader- 15 years, Isfahan is cutting water and civilised people” and says Iran that the 1979 Islamic Revolution ship could broaden its support supplies. In hot weather, the moral- is “a trustworthy and committed emphasised religion rather than base through a “hybrid national- ity police are on the streets looking partner for all who are prepared to nation but, in general, Iranians re- ism” that could use the “Ay Iran” for ‘bad hijab,’ which widens the cooperate on the basis of shared main nationalistic and effortlessly anthem. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, cultural gap [between conserva- interests and mutual respect.” juggle the lunar Islamic calendar president for eight years from tives and liberals],” he said. Analysts have identified a grow- and a solar Iranian calendar, mark- 2005, was difficult for Khamenei “To stay powerful, the lead- ing use of nationalist sentiment by ing the festivals of both. to manage, but many of his actions ers of the Islamic Republic have Iran’s leaders. On April 18 — Army This makes for considerable cul- and rhetoric showed the appeal of to adjust their relationship with Day — the annual parade of the tural variations, a subject recently nationalism. society. Imagine if someone like armed forces echoed for the first addressed by Saeid Golkar, visiting Golkar said turning to “hybrid Qassem Soleimani [al-Quds force time since the 1979 revolution to assistant professor at the Univer- nationalism” would be hard with commander] or Mohammad Bagher “Ay Iran,” which is often seen as an sity of Tennessee at Chattanooga. Khamenei in power. “The first Ghalibaf [former Tehran mayor] alternative to the official anthem of Golkar’s paper, published by the generation of Revolutionary Guard visited the tomb of Cyrus the Great the Islamic Republic of Iran. Washington Institute for Near-East leaders, like Fadavi, don’t like na- [ruler 600-530BC] and talked about “’Ay Iran’ was composed in 1944 Policy, is titled “Cultural Heteroge- tionalism,” he said, in a reference being Iranian and Muslim and by Ruhollah Khaleqi, with lyrics neity in Post-Revolutionary Iran.” to Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, com- about Iran’s glorious past. This by Hossein Gol-e Golab, and was It argues Tehran faces a cultural mander of the Revolutionary Guard would be popular even with secu- conflict between “religious-Hez- Navy. “Ayatollah Khamenei has lar nationalists.” bollahi” and “hybrid post-modern” the same idea: Nationalism goes The relationship between worldviews. The post-modernists, against his notion of Islamic civi- Gareth Smyth is a regular who are generally young, believe lisation. A majority of the clergy contributor to The Arab Weekly. dynasties, religion and country liberty is as important as religion. are naturally not nationalist. But He has reported from the Middle in Iran is a long, complex one. They meet in coffee houses rather the younger swathe of Guards, and East since 1992. 18 May 27, 2018 Spotlight Italy New Italian government could mean trouble for immigrants

Justin Salhani brary during that period. Five Star was formed in 2009 by comedian Beppe Grillo and web Milan strategist Gianroberto Casaleggio. Casaleggio died in 2016 and Grillo new government that stepped down from the party this would bring together It- year, handing the leadership to aly’s two largest populist Luigi Di Maio, 31, who was thought A parties seems imminent, to be in line to be prime minister a development that could signal before Conte’s name was placed in trouble for immigrants in Italy. nomination. The Five Star Movement won the The Five Star Movement has biggest share of votes in March’s borrowed policies from across the election but did not secure the political spectrum, such as envi- right to form a government. It ronmental advocacy and a push will join with Matteo Salvini’s the for direct democracy. The League, League — a populist, right-wing which once espoused the secession and nativist party, which recently of the Padania region from Italy, is dropped “Northern” from its name firmly entrenched on the far right to have wider appeal. The League and shares many positions with was the most successful party in US President Donald Trump and Closer to power. Compromise candidate for prime minister Giuseppe Conte. (AP) the centre-right coalition, winning France’s National Front. most of its votes in the north. The The two parties seem to have Five Star Movement dominated the reached certain agreements that a political science professor at populists in Italy, including Mr are clearly against EU policies on voting in the rest of the country. could bode poorly for minorities Urbino University. Silvio Berlusconi, but repatriation the matter.” and immigrants in Italy. Bilateral agreements between activities have been generally lim- EU criticism hasn’t previously “The forthcoming Italian gov- Rome and Tripoli had meant mi- ited.” deterred Salvini or Di Maio but for EU criticism hasn’t ernment is very likely to be mark- grants were sent to Italy but insta- The policies could contradict the first time they will no longer be previously deterred edly anti-immigrant,” said Jalel bility in Libya makes that prospect the Dublin Regulation, which de- in the opposition. Ruling coalitions Salvini or Di Maio but for Harchaoui, a doctoral candidate in more difficult. fines protocols European coun- must find ways to govern and enact the first time they will no geopolitics at Paris 8 University. “It “The government agreement tries should take in accepting and policy but that may be something longer be in the will be anti-migrant in a way that is between the League and the Five settling migrants and refugees. It the two parties struggle to do. more ideological and more aggres- Star Movement includes a number would also focus on the weakest For one, Italy is divided political- opposition. sive than the [Prime Minister Pao- of highly restrictive proposals con- and most disenfranchised of the ly and the country is notorious for lo] Gentiloni government has been cerning migration and integration, new arrivals. its slow moving legislature and the Together they nominated a over the last 18 months.” with a crackdown on Roma peo- “It seems they will be intoler- potential ruling coalition is yet to compromise candidate, Giuseppe Before the election, Salvini made ples, the fight against illegal settle- ant towards refugees without pa- outline how it would accomplish Conte, for prime minister. Conte, Trump-like proclamations about ments and Muslims, further con- pers, by rejecting asylum requests its goals related to immigration. 53, is controversial considering he 600,000 “illegal immigrants” liv- trols at mosques and compulsory and making a plan for expulsions,” “I would say there is a clear and has never held office. Questions ing in Italy who need to be deport- preaching in Italian,” said Pietro said Laura Silvia Battaglia, an Ital- shared aim to stop uncontrolled remain over his qualifications af- ed. Castelli Gattinara, a research fellow ian documentary film-maker. “It migration, while the concrete ter he claimed to have “perfected “The two parties are discussing in political science and sociology should be taken into considera- measures that should be adopted and updated” his studies at New — this part is highlighted as provi- at the Centre on Social Movement tion that 80% of the people who and the feasibility of the stated York University from 2008-14. The sional in the file — the possibility of Studies, Scuola Normale Superiore requested asylum in Italy are not aims — especially in cases where university said it had given Conte opening at least one centre of tem- in Florence. inside Italian borders anymore. they need international agree- “no official status,” though he was porary detention and expulsion in “These types of proposals have This plan could be criticised by the ments — are still not clear,” Bor- granted access to the university li- each region,” said Fabio Bordignon, been common among right-wing European Union and some points dignon said. Viewpoint Italy’s politics have Euro-Mediterranean ramifications urope faces a paradox will be a political prime minister of partners — France in particular — not to say callous — reaction of with the incoming Ital- a political government, chosen by — few have shown solidarity countries such as France that have ian government. two political forces within it. with Italy, which has been left to not shared the burden of the refu- Francis Ghilès The coalition partners Salvini is likely to be appointed bear the financial, economic and gees has not been received well by are the anti-establish- interior minister — to oversee a sanitary burden of the arrival of the Italians. ment Five Star Move- planned crackdown on immigra- tens of thousands of destitute Over the past year or so, Italian Ement led by Luigi Di Maio and the tion — and Di Maio would head the people. It is worth recalling that, authorities have made deals with League led by Matteo Salvini. Both ministries of labour and economic as of 2016, and after Germany (8.6 power brokers in Libya that have parties are very much anti-estab- development. The policies of the million) and the United Kingdom stemmed the flow of migrants from lishment and have long sneered first would directly affect Medi- (5 million-6 million), Italy is the that country. Italy is all the more at unelected technocrats taking terranean countries and beyond EU country that boasts the most sore for not having supported the power; yet, following weeks of as Salvini is determined to crack foreign nationals (5 million), before French-led NATO-backed military wrangling, they have put forward down on migrant arrivals, be they Spain (4.4 million) and France (4.4 intervention in Libya in 2011. That Giuseppe Conte, 53, as their pre- irregular migrants, asylum seekers million). turned Libya into a failed state and ferred prime minister. or refugees who cannot legally This has left a bitter taste in the unleashed an unprecedented wave The next Italian prime minister justify their presence in Italy and mouth of Italians, who were less of immigrants across the Mediter- may not be a household name but, those who have a criminal record. well-placed to absorb large num- ranean. after earning his law degree at the Repatriation orders will increase. bers as their economy has, since One can expect to see the new Sapienza University in Rome, he Salvini’s speeches are overtly the financial crisis of 2008, shrunk. government in Rome confront the studied at Yale and the Sorbonne. racist and for years the League Germany, where the net flow of European Union on immigration He has positions at the University argued that it wanted to set up an refugees has been larger, has wit- and on foreign affairs, which, in of Florence and Luiss University independent Padania in northern nessed steady economic growth. the Mediterranean, are closely in Rome. He has had high-profile Italy to stop all the “scroungers” in Each European country is differ- bound. Italy’s relations with Tuni- posts, including a seat on the coun- the Mezzogiorno, where the Five ent but what is not in doubt is that sia, Egypt and Algeria should not cil that regulates Italy’s adminis- Star supporters live, from feeding economic stagnation kindles fears suffer as North Africa, outside of trative judiciary and led a special off the wealth of their richer broth- of “being invaded.” In its modern Libya, controls its borders pretty committee that investigated sexual ers. The “scroungers” are from the history, Italy has not had, until re- well. That said, mass deportation harassment allegations against southern and eastern shores of cently, a large stock of immigrants from Italy is not a realistic option. Francesco Bellomo, a senior judge. the Mediterranean and beyond in — certainly a much smaller one How Italy fares economically He has worked with the World Afghanistan. Salvini is determined than France, the United Kingdom will also affect Maghreb countries Bank’s former senior economist, to do all he can to bring the flow or Germany, let alone Spain. with which it has long-standing Joseph Stiglitz. down. He can look his EU partners The provenance of those immi- economic and energy ties. Unlike Technocrats have governed Italy in the eye. grants, their religion and their lack Greece, Italy is too big to fail but before. Two recent prime minis- The International Organisation of resources have, when combined maybe too big to save. Its $4.4 ters, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi (1993- for Migration said that, in 2015, with an economy in crisis, pro- trillion public debt is seven times 94), a former central bank gover- 153,000 immigrants arrived in Italy duced a perfect political storm. bigger than Greece’s, the largest in Salvini’s speeches are nor, and Mario Monti (2011-13), a via the Mediterranean (857,000 in The result of the Italian elections the eurozone and fourth largest in overtly racist and for former EU commissioner, served Greece); in 2016, 181,000 (in Greece needs to be seen in context. the world. Were Italy to crash out years the League the country with great skill. They 176,000) and, in 2017, 111,000 Thousands of immigrants are of the euro, the economic shock led emergency administrations (Greece 27,000). Among those who waiting in camps to be regularised; waves would be felt across Europe argued that it wanted and had considerable knowledge arrived in Greece were a greater others are working as virtual slave and North Africa. to set up an of Italian institutions and how they proportion of people from the Mid- labourers in the fields of southern worked. dle East, Afghans and Pakistanis Italy; others camp in derelict areas Francis Ghilès is an associate independent Padania Such is not the case with the and fewer Africans. on the edge of major cities. The fellow at the Barcelona Centre for in northern Italy. prime minister-designate. Conte Among Rome’s major European indifference of Europe, the cynical International Affairs. May 27, 2018 19 News & Analysis East West ‘Iranian adventurism’ among concerns of CIA under new director

Thomas Frank In 2005, Haspel helped her su- pervisor destroy CIA videotapes of the torture of Nashiri and of Washington another terrorism suspect, Abu Zubaydah, another Saudi citizen. he new director of the US Both men are being held at the US Central Intelligence Agency military prison at Guantanamo Bay, (CIA) pledged the agency Cuba. T would not resume torturing The torture, which the CIA called terrorism suspects and indicated “enhanced interrogation,” drew that she would defy a presidential international condemnation when order directing the CIA to use inter- it became publicly known in 2005 rogation techniques that she con- and was halted in 2009 by then- sidered “immoral.” US President Barack Obama. Many Gina Haspel took over as head members of the US Congress were of the CIA on May 21, after intense alarmed when Haspel was nomi- questioning and scepticism from nated to run the CIA by US Presi- US lawmakers over her role in the dent Donald Trump. He had said CIA’s torture of suspects captured during his election campaign that mostly in Afghanistan and Pakistan he “would bring back waterboard- and transferred to secret prisons ing and I’d bring back a hell of a lot around the world for interrogation. worse than waterboarding.” Challenges ahead. Gina Haspel prepares to speak while flanked by US President Donald Trump (L) Haspel said the CIA under her During a bruising confirma- and Vice-President Mike Pence after she was sworn in as CIA director, on May 21. (AFP) would focus on terrorist threats, tion hearing before the US Senate, China’s rise as a global power, Rus- Haspel noted the CIA’s use of tor- sian brutality and “destabilising ture had been approved by top of- president “ordered you to get back prove the nomination and two Re- crony of the president running Iranian adventurism.” ficials under former US President in that business,” Haspel replied: publicans voted against. the agency. I think that’s precisely On May 21, Secretary of State George W. Bush but said she would “I would not restart, under any cir- Haspel is the first woman to head what we want,” Jeremy Bash, who Mike Pompeo described the Trump not use such techniques even if re- cumstances, an interrogation pro- the CIA, which was created in 1947, was the CIA’s chief of staff under administration’s aggressive stance quested by a president and author- gramme at CIA.” and she is the first director in 50 Obama, said recently on National against Iran in which the US mili- ised by government lawyers. Haspel downplayed her role in years who ascended through the Public Radio. tary would “crush” Iranian opera- “My moral compass is strong,” the CIA interrogations, saying she agency’s ranks. Other CIA direc- Bash said Haspel would help the tives “and their Hezbollah proxies” Haspel said in response to a sena- was not involved in the torture of tors, such as Haspel’s immediate CIA focus on intelligence gathered around the world. “Iran will never tor’s question. “I would not allow Nashiri. When the CIA videotapes predecessor Mike Pompeo, have from human sources, so-called again have carte blanche to domi- CIA to undertake an activity that were destroyed in 2005, she said, been members of Congress, former “humint,” which the CIA has been nate the Middle East,” Pompeo said. I felt was immoral even if it was she wrote a memo at the request military leaders and White House accused of downplaying in favour Haspel, a CIA officer for 32 years technically legal. I would absolute- of her boss directing CIA officials in advisers. Pompeo left the position of electronically captured signals until becoming the agency’s deputy ly not permit it.” Thailand to put the tapes through in April when he became US secre- intelligence (“sigint”) that involves director in early 2017, supervised She added: “I believe that CIA an industrial shredder. From 2002- tary of state. intercepting communications such a secret CIA prison in Thailand in must undertake activities that are 08, the CIA tortured 39 of the 119 Haspel’s background helped her as phone calls and e-mail. 2002 where agency interrogators consistent with American values. detainees it held at secret prisons, win support from dozens of for- “She is an expert in her craft, par- tortured a suspected al-Qaeda lead- America is looked at all over the a US Senate report released in 2014 mer CIA leaders, who praised her ticularly humint operation, which er, Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri of Saudi world as an example to everyone stated. knowledge, professionalism and is the bedrock of CIA collection,” Arabia. He was subjected to water- else in the world, and we have to Haspel’s repudiation of torture presumed independence from Bash said. boarding, which simulates drown- uphold that, and CIA is included in helped her win confirmation by the Trump. ing, and had his head slammed into that.” Senate on a 54-45 mostly party-line “It’s best if we have a career, Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly walls. Asked what she would do if a vote. Six Democrats voted to ap- non-partisan, non-political, non- correspondent in Washington. UK mosques look to security during Ramadan Mahmud el-Shafey Trust (CST), the Metropolitan Po- to managers, imams, trustees and for faith communities and their during the referendum and the lice Service and the West London community volunteers at other institutions,” Faith Associates CEO environment after the referendum Mosque Forum, seeks to ensure mosques, who will implement Shaukat Warraich said in a release. has made racial and ethnic minori- London security at British mosques during what they learnt during Ramadan. “The mosque security training pro- ties more vulnerable to racial dis- Ramadan. gramme should help our institu- crimination and intolerance,” Achi- ritish mosques have beefed “Religious communities up and tions refine their approach to secu- ume told the Guardian. up security during the holy down the country face varying se- An initiative by Faith rity.” “Many with whom I consulted month of Ramadan amid curity threats. CST has a long tradi- Associates is providing Highlighting the interfaith na- highlighted the growth in volume B increased fears over Islam- tion of working with other faiths “bespoke” training to ture of British religious authorities, and acceptability of xenophobic ophobia. to improve their security, whether mosque authorities at a Jewish volunteers with decades of discourses on migration and on for- Tell MAMA, a national project through advice or training, and time of increasing attacks experience protecting synagogues, eign nationals including refugees that records anti-Muslim incidents will continue to do so whenever we attended the Hayes session to give in social and print media.” in the United Kingdom, reported can,” CST Chief Executive David on UK mosques. advice. “As an imam and someone who that more than 100 mosques were Delew said in a release in early May. There is genuine fear among works in the heart of Muslim com- targeted in anti-Muslim hate in- “When communities work to- The training included threat as- many British Muslims about their munities… it is startling to see the cidents and crimes from May gether we are always stronger and sessments and establishing proto- safety. UN Special Rapporteur on way that the level of fear within 2013-September 2016. we are hopeful that this is a posi- cols to deal with emergencies, in- Racism Tendayi Achiume high- our communities has grown over “We know that during Rama- tive step towards deeper ties be- stalling CCTV cameras and working lighted increased racism and in- the past five years,” said Mamadou dan there is increased visibility of tween our communities.” with local police. tolerance because of Britain’s deci- Bocoum, a prison chaplain. Muslims going to and coming back The initial session was deliv- “The Finsbury Park attack high- sion to leave the European Union. Writing in Britain’s Independent from mosques. We also know that ered at Hayes Muslim Centre in lighted the potential vulnerability “The environment leading up to newspaper, Bocoum said, while it visibility is one factor that triggers West London ahead of Ramadan of mosques and exposed the risks the referendum, the environment is important to secure mosques, comments from people who have mosques need to remain welcom- stereotypical views about Muslims ing to visitors. or carry anti-Muslim hate in their “Mosques that were once open minds. This is my advice and in- and accessible to members of the formation to members of the con- public now feel like they are em- gregation is key,” said Tell MAMA battled and located in conflict Director Iman Atta. zones, with high fences, volunteers Ramadan in 2018 falls one year patrolling them and CCTV cameras after the Finsbury Park Mosque at every corner. How did we reach attack in London in which a van this point of division and separa- driver tried to mow down as many tion within the space of just five Muslims “as possible” following years?” taraweeh prayers. While Tell MAMA has sought to “Islamophobia is real, normal- raise awareness of security issues, ised in many sections of our soci- including releasing literature on ety and appears to be on the rise how mosques can better secure in all its forms,” Muslim Council of themselves, the national project Britain Assistant Secretary-General acknowledged that such fears Miqdaad Versi wrote in an opinion should not be allowed to overshad- piece in the Guardian before Rama- ow Ramadan. dan. “Safety is something that should An initiative by Faith Associates, be considered but, ultimately, we a theological consultancy that ad- urge Muslims to enjoy and spiritu- dresses the needs of ethnic mi- ally regenerate themselves for the nority faith-based communities, coming year. There is much that is is providing “bespoke” training to beautiful in the month of Rama- mosque authorities at a time of in- dan,” Atta said. creasing attacks on UK mosques. The initiative, which brings to- Safety concerns. Muslim women walk past a police van positioned near Finsbury Park Mosque in Mahmud el-Shafey is an Arab gether the Community Security London. (AFP) Weekly correspondent in London. 20 May 27, 2018 Society Social Media Social media shaping norms of expression in the Arab world Caline Malek an 84% reach in the United Arab “Many GCC countries have cy- Emirates and 60% in Saudi Arabia. ber-security laws, which can be a “What’s interesting about Face- little ambiguous in terms of ‘do’s Abu Dhabi book, however, is that numbers and don’ts’ on social media,” Rad- are considerably lower among na- cliffe said. “This can make users ince the “Arab spring” in tionals — 70% in the UAE and 55% wary about what they say online. 2011, social media have in Saudi Arabia — and much lower We also know that many users taken the Middle East and than they were in 2015, perhaps as support regulation, aren’t tolerant S North Africa by storm, a result of users migrating to newer of government criticism of their changing its collective and indi- social networks,” he said. government and, as I found and vidual communication landscape. He said “Snapchat is the real suc- reported on in 2014, online users The “7th Arab Social Media Re- cess story” with the percentage of across the region want govern- port,” put out by the Mohammed users in the United Arab Emirates ments to block harmful material bin Rashid School of Government going from 8% to 35% and from 4% and keep their children safe.” in Dubai, states that Facebook re- to 40% in Saudi Arabia. In practice, this means there can mains the most popular social me- Privacy and the user experience be a lot of self-censorship online dia platform in the Arab region. are concerns for social media users and people do not always use their for creative expression and inter- will shatter the global political The number of Facebook users in all over the world. As Sarah Vieweg, real names. They share and partic- action, which were not previously equilibrium and shift power from the region has steadily increased, a user experience researcher at Fa- ipate in closed communities, such possible. This takes place within a governments towards individuals. reaching more than 156 million in cebook, said, social media use in as forums or WhatsApp groups, cultural framework shaped by the “We now face a century of 2017 — a year-on-year increase of the Middle East is often different which can be more difficult to traditional and conservative val- change like no other in history,” he nearly 41 million from the begin- than in other regions. “check the temperature” of a coun- ues of many countries. Radcliffe said. “States, ideas and industries ning of 2016. Cultural sensibilities, such as try by surveying social media. said the two can be compatible, will go out of business. Inequality whom to friend, the pictures “That’s the case everywhere,” as witnessed by the growth of so- could grow.” shared and profile pictures, shape Radcliffe said. “Social media users cial media usage and the breadth He said the internet has changed Facebook enjoys an online behaviour, often in a man- and their opinions are not a rep- of activities, ranging from news the world faster than any previous 84% reach in the United ner that people from outside the resentative sample of the overall to comedy, sport and discussion technology. “The smartphone has given a super power to much of the Arab Emirates and 60% region would be unaware of. population but that’s especially of religion, that people in the GGC “Similarly, social media in the true in the Middle East.” engage with on these platforms. world’s population,” Fletcher said. in Saudi Arabia. Middle East and particularly the He said it helped both break and “For many, the web is no longer for GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council enforce conservative taboos. “So- our downtime but for all our time. “The results from last year’s countries] are very innovative,” cial networks have created a plat- We have access not just to more in- study ‘Media Use in the Middle Radcliffe said. form for people to express their Of the biggest social formation than we can process but East 2017,’ by Northwestern Uni- “The use of WhatsApp and Ins- views and opinions, which can networks, WhatsApp has more than we can imagine.” versity in Qatar, found that only tagram as market places for small often be critical, such as Facebook 95% reach in the United He spoke of social media as new 5% don’t use social media in Saudi businesses, often those created in Iraq or an opportunity to ex- Arab Emirates and 88% in frontiers for digital diplomacy, in- Arabia and 0% in the UAE,” said and run by women, are uses of press support,” Radcliffe said. “It’s Saudi Arabia. cluding using social media to gath- Damian Radcliffe, a journalism these networks that their creators a space where people have been er information and connect and professor at the University of Or- probably never imagined. It shows very entrepreneurial with women, to influence on a massive scale, egon. “Usage among Westerners, how the community is able to har- in particular, often taking advan- Technology is transforming the building campaigns and coalitions. Arab and Asian expats is similarly ness these platforms to meet their tage of this to create and market way people meet their needs for “Diplomacy is no longer an elite high.” own needs.” their own businesses, while plat- peace, dignity and community. pastime,” he said. “It will become Of the biggest social networks, Whether social media change forms like YouTube have led to the Tom Fletcher, a senior adviser at more open, democratic and inclu- WhatsApp has 95% reach in the the terms of political and social emergence of online comedy stars the Emirates Diplomatic Academy sive. If diplomacy did not exist, we United Arab Emirates and 88% debates depends on the context of in the region.” in Abu Dhabi and former British would need to invent it. Now, we in Saudi Arabia. Facebook enjoys individual countries, experts said. Social media offer opportunities ambassador to Lebanon, said this need to reinvent it.”

Viewpoint Fake social media pages cause a stir in Egypt

ake social media pages appearance in the FIFA World Cup “news” from fake accounts without reaction was a simple statement and accounts ascribed to “for lack of patriotism.” confirming allegations. Many news saying Badawy “does not own any top government officials Observers said fake accounts consumers believe what they are social media account in the first Amira Fekri are causing problems were linked to developing politi- reading is accurate because it place and someone took advantage in Egypt. Because of cal and social events. Social media comes from known news sources. of that and pasted his (Badawy’s) the high volume of fake users quickly react to any event Most officials in Egypt do not picture on a fake account and Fnews and false official “decisions” and post on the internet about have official social media accounts spread these rumours.” they spew, the pages are driving a them regularly. Many are obviously and many are indifferent to the Information safety expert Walid wedge between citizens and state aware they are not interacting with phenomena of social media and do Hajjaj said the biggest danger of institutions. the person purportedly attached to not quickly correct misinformation. fake accounts is that their creators The government has been the account but still become angry Fake accounts can easily be taken closely imitate personal character- criticised for not closing fake while others jeer. as legitimate ones when there are istics and ideas of the officials they pages. The government’s inaction The observers said the absence no other official accounts. are forging. He said fake accounts has given fake accounts a legiti- of official reaction to fake accounts The government had to officially of high-profile officials anywhere macy among followers, which can encourages people to continue deny declarations that appeared on in the world attract followers and number in the hundreds of thou- even though the fake postings can the fake account bearing the name acquire credibility when govern- sands. The fake page of Education lead to hard-to-control situations of Minister of the Public Enterprise ment leaders do not communicate Minister Mahmoud Abo el-Nasr, for Egyptian authorities. Khaled Badawy that alleged the effectively with the public. Such for example, has 80,000 followers The problem is compounded selling of public sector companies. situations feed political discord compared to the 55,000 following when online news sites report The extent of the government’s and distrust of the government. his official page. Hardly a week passes by without There are fake accounts for a news release by the Egyptian practically all high-ranking officials Cabinet’s Information and Deci- and institutions in Egypt. There is sion Support Centre denying news a fake account of the Presidency of or information released through the Republic, which specialises in fake accounts under the names of spreading rumours about expected ministers and other high-ranking actions and decisions by President officials. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The news is Egyptian authorities quickly fake but that does not stop the op- close social media pages that pro- position from using it to severely mote religious extremism, violence criticise the regime. and terrorism but hardly lift a fin- Taking advantage of the obses- ger against accounts spreading ru- sion many Egyptians have with mours and fake news. Perhaps the social media, fake accounts were government reaps some advantage established targeting officials. from ignoring such situations. Authorities have not moved against Hajjaj said: “The fake pages of those accounts and the number officials contain ideological terror- of followers of the accounts has ism and there is an unjustified of- increased. ficial slackness in going after them There are fake Hany Abo Rida, president of legally. They can easily be shut accounts for the Egyptian Football Association down when an official institution practically all high- fell victim to a posting on a fake presents documented proof that account, which claimed Abo Rida these accounts are fake.” ranking officials and would bar star player Mohamed institutions in Egypt. Salah from the national team’s Fake news. An Egyptian man checks his smartphone in Cairo. (AFP) Amira Fekri is an Egyptian writer. May 27, 2018 21 Society Egyptians gripped by World Cup fever, pinning hopes on Mohamed Salah

Ahmed Megahid Mohamed Trezeguet and Kahraba. Defender Ahmed Hegazi enjoyed a good debut season in the Pre- Cairo mier League, even though his West Brom side was relegated. Veteran gypt is in the grip of FIFA goalkeeper Essam El-Hadary, if he World Cup fever and many makes the final squad, could be- people in the country hope come the oldest player to feature at E the Pharaohs, as the men’s a World Cup at age 45. national team is known, will make Egypt has a strong squad and all it into the knockout stage. eyes are on Salah and his ability to The Egyptian Football Associa- score goals. There have, however, tion has chosen a provisional team been rumblings about Cuper’s de- and the final roster is to be named fensive style, even after Egypt fin- June 4, said Ehab Lahita, adminis- ished second in the 2017 African trative manager of the team. Lahita, Cup of Nations. who serves under manager Hector Millions of Egyptians took to the Cuper, said the Egyptian delega- streets last October 8 to celebrate tion would include 23 players, the the country’s qualification for the coaches and their assistants, the World Cup, after Salah scored on a medical team and members of the penalty in the final minutes of the country’s football federation. match to secure victory over Con- “This is a very important com- go. Many are anticipating similar petition and everybody in the scenes of celebration with Egypt team has the resolve required for facing off against hosts Russia, an achievement,” Lahita said. “We Saudi Arabia and Uruguay in Group promise to do everything possi- A. ble to make the Egyptian public “We have a big chance to score happy.” major victories in the competition because we have a strong team that contains very talented and dedicat- In Egypt, football is more ed players,” said sports commenta- than just a sport and popular tor Ehab al-Khatib. “Every member High hopes. A Cairo open-air cafe displays a mural by Egyptian artist Ahmed Fathy (C) showing national teams have never of the general public will be watch- Liverpool’s Egyptian midfielder Mohamed Salah. (AFP) been able to escape politics. ing the matches closely.” Egyptian state television has This is the first time that Egypt bought the broadcast rights of Aziz said. When the Egyptian Football Asso- they will face a strong Belgian team has qualified for the world’s top Egypt’s World Cup matches. This “The public will be able to watch ciation allowed a local telecommu- on June 6. football event since its appearance should mean football fans will not the matches on squares and at nication company to use Salah’s im- The national team is to return to at Italy in 1990. Since then, Egyp- have to worry about choosing be- youth centres,” Abdel Aziz said. age without his consent, this placed Egypt June 8. The following day, tian footballers were unable to tween Qatari and Israeli broadcasts “We want to make everybody feel the Egyptian winger in trouble with the players are to attend a major make the grade during World Cup to watch the games, as they had to that the tournament is not held far his own sponsors, with the issue celebration at Cairo Stadium that qualification campaigns, even as do so in previous World Cups. away from home.” only being resolved after an inter- includes an estimated 100,000 fans the team won five African Cup of However, relatively few Egyp- In Egypt, football is more than vention from the president. before travelling to Russia on June Nations titles in the same period. tians tend to stay at home to watch just a sport. Popular national teams When a local communications 10. The only other time Egypt quali- the matches, most preferring to have never been able to escape company illegally used Salah’s “Everybody is hoping that the fied for the World Cup was in 1934 enjoy them as part of a communal politics. Former President Hosni photo in one of its advertisement team will perform well in the com- — the second time the tournament experience. During the Africa Cup Mubarak used to receive the na- in April, the presidency instructed petition and have good results,” took place. The Pharaohs are yet to of Nations in Gabon, it seemed all tional football teams at the presi- the football association to pay $5.6 Khatib said. “I am full of confi- win a World Cup match. of Egypt was out on the streets, dential palace, attend matches and million for the fine that had been dence that our players will make Egypt has scored a total of three watching the matches at coffee telephone the manager to receive issued against Salah over breach of wonderful surprises.” goals in its previous four World Cup shops or in public squares on gigan- updates. image rights. Egypt goes against Uruguay on matches. It is hoped that Mohamed tic screens or at sports and youth Mubarak’s sons, Alaa and Gamal, Egypt has arranged a series of June 15 in its World Cup opener. Salah, coming off a record-setting centres. attended training of national teams, friendlies ahead of the World Cup Other Group A games have the 32 goals during Premier League When the World Cup starts, simi- made friends with the players and to fine-tune tactics and final selec- Pharaohs playing Russia on June 19 play for Liverpool — and 43 across lar screens will be provided for the travelled to matches outside Egypt. tion. The team drew 1-1 with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia on June 25. all competitions — will increase public to watch the matches and The current Egyptian administra- on May 25, before travelling to Italy Egypt’s scoring opportunities. support the national team, Youth tion also seems more than ready to for a game June 1 against Colom- Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian He will get support from wingers and Sports Minister Khaled Abdel offer its support to the Pharaohs. bia and finally to Belgium where reporter in Cairo. Lebanon’s manousheh takes on pizza in London

Dunia El-Zobaidi Chamoun said. Born and raised in Beirut, the brothers said they draw inspiration London from all corners of the globe to ex- pand the neighbourhood bakery. othing beats your mother’s Alongside his work with the Mid- home-cooked food. You’ve dle Eastern eatery, Samer Chamoun grown up with it. It’s made works as an architect with a studio N with love and there are in Beirut. The restaurateur has also many warm memories associated worked for Zaha Hadid Architects, with it. where he honed his design skills. Lebanese brothers Samer and Bas- Bassam Chamoun is a real estate sam Chamoun wanted to share with developer behind a number of large Londoners a deeply rooted food her- commercial and residential projects itage — manousheh — at their first in Beirut, including the development international brand store, the Leba- of local and regional restaurants. nese Bakery. Their design skills are shown in They say they are not compet- their attention to detail in presenting ing to have the best manousheh but the toppings on the flatbreads and want to present more variety that is their packaging. New shapes of the new and authentic to their roots. flatbread will be introduced to give The Lebanese Bakery offers a fresh each piece its own identity. approach to manousheh, a popular Until now, the Lebanese “pizza” Lebanese flatbread usually topped has been more or less unheralded in with thyme, cheese or ground meat. the United Kingdom despite some of Based in Beirut, the Chamouns Unique taste. The breakfast special: the baked egg manousheh. (The Lebanese Bakery) the best restaurants in Paris and New opened a branch in Covent Garden, York scribbling it on to their menus London, and said they hope to ex- with marker pens. pand to France, Germany, the Gulf za’tar, which contains tomato tahini and Western toppings such chain restaurant Franco Manca. The Britain, though, has caught on. and North America. spread, thyme flower and fresh as Nutella. The average manousheh Chamouns use the same approach Looks like pizza has some competi- “We want to introduce new reci- thyme. They use seven types of has 350-500 calories. of making the dough fresh on-site. tion from the Lebanese Bakery dedi- pes, not only have three or four cheese and mix sauces for a unique “Flatbread hasn’t been innovated While the dough used in Italy and cated entirely to Beirut’s most popu- items that the manousheh usually taste. Although the manousheh is in a while so we want to fill that gap,” Lebanon is similar, the toppings are lar street-food snack. has. In Beirut, one type of dough is usually enjoyed for breakfast, the Chamoun said. “We are not compet- different. Link to Lebanese Bakery’s used normally. We use three types bakery offers it all day and with free- ing with other manousheh, howev- “We want to present the farm- website: of dough such as whole wheat and range eggs. There is also a delivery er, we are rivalling pizza.” to-table experience. We work with http://thelebanesebakery.com multigrain oats, which are used in and takeaway service. The Chamoun brothers are smart local farmers in Beirut to bring an cereals,” Samer Chamoun said. There are sweet flatbreads with to compete with pizza. Their dough authentic and organic taste. We Dunia El-Zobaidi is a regular Arab Their biggest seller is za’tar on Arabic toppings such as halawa and tastes a lot like the pizza from Italian want to bring the farms to the city,” Weekly contributor in London 22 May 27, 2018 Economy

Egypt seeks to attract Arab investments Briefs with new sovereign wealth fund Algeria’s Islamist opposition urges

Amr Emam ment to set aside investments for consensus on sectors neglected by the private sector.” economic reform Cairo The creation of the fund is part of broader efforts by the Egyptian Algeria must build a national gypt’s first sovereign government to secure different consensus to undertake deep wealth fund will help the sources of income. Egypt previous- economic reforms and end its country diversify invest- ly relied on traditional sectors of dependency on volatile gas and E ments, shield the economy the economy for income, particu- oil revenues, the new leader of against unexpected fluctuations larly the tourism sector, which was the main Islamist opposition party and open the door for investment hit hard following the 2011 revolu- said. partnerships with other Arab states tion. Abderrazak Makri, elected to that have financial surpluses, the In late 2015, the bombing of a lead the Islamist Movement of government says. Russian passenger plane over Sinai Society for Peace party, said he Egyptian Finance Minister Amr led almost all Western countries would stand in the presidential al-Garhi hailed the new fund and to suspend direct flights to Egypt. election next April if the govern- its potential effects. While tourism numbers have slow- ment does not bring the opposi- “The creation of the fund is a ly been increasing over the last two tion into its plans for taking the major investment leap,” Garhi said. years, boosted by the restoration oil-producing country forward. “It is an important mechanism for of direct flights to Cairo from Mos- Major leap. Egypt’s Finance Minister Amr al-Garhi attends a news perking up the investment climate cow in April, the vulnerabilities of conference in Cairo. (Reuters) (Reuters) and making business with invest- Egypt’s tourism sector have been ment partners.” exposed. The government inaugurated Egypt’s plans to serve as a major create these revenues by skilfully people, such as food, from interna- the fund in mid-April with the aim trade hub also failed to bear fruit in managing unexploited assets.” tional markets for several months of managing unexploited state as- the short term. In the second half Tawfiq and other economists to come. Saudi Arabia sets to bring additional revenue of 2014 and the first half of 2015, refer to the presence of tens of “Sovereign funds need money to the state treasury. The $11.3 bil- Egypt spent billions of dollars to billions of dollars in unexploited to turn into an effective tool that assures on lion fund is small compared to upgrade the Suez Canal by digging assets nationwide. They include serves economic development,” funds managed by countries like a parallel channel to allow two- massive plots of land in desirable said Ehab al-Dessouki, an econom- supply as oil hits the United Arab Emirates, which in way traffic for the first time since locations, with thousands of build- ics professor at the state-run Sadat 2017 boasted a fund of $828 billion, the digging of the canal almost 150 ings, some of them overlooking the Academy for Management Scienc- $80 a barrel but the Egyptian government said years ago. Nile, as well as beaches and other es. “However, ongoing financial Saudi Arabia said it is consulting it is a good first step for future in- However, the recession that hit tourist infrastructure that are cry- constraints can derail the new fund oil producers inside and outside vestments and financial gains. the world economy a short time ing out for investment. and prevent it from functioning ef- OPEC to ensure the world has One of the fund’s major aims is to later meant that global trade was Nonetheless, one of the chal- fectively.” adequate supplies to support eco- allow the Egyptian government to down and an expected increase in lenges that will face those putting Garhi said the government nomic growth after prices hit $80 a diversify investments, especially in usage of the canal failed to materi- the fund to work, economists say, would solve this problem by invit- barrel for the first time since 2014. sectors of the economy that do not alise. is the lack of financial surpluses ei- ing friendly Arab states to invest OPEC’s most influential energy traditionally attract private sector A sovereign wealth fund, econo- ther at the central bank or in gov- some of the money available in minister, Saudi Arabia’s Khalid investment. mists said, can shield the national ernment coffers. their sovereign wealth funds in the al-Falih, said in a Twitter post that Infrastructure projects, econo- economy against unexpected fluc- Garhi did not mention where the new Egyptian fund. he called his counterparts in the mists said, and water and elec- tuations and secure revenues for $11.3 billion in the fund will come Saudi Arabia is reportedly plan- United Arab Emirates, the United tricity plants, for example, do not the state treasury, especially if its from, but economists said it would ning to invest in the fund. Garhi States and Russia, as well as major attract the private sector, even investments are managed properly. most likely manage the value of said Egypt would also propose the oil consumer South Korea, to though they are important to the “The fund is a non-traditional unexploited assets. idea to the United Arab Emirates, “coordinate global action to ease general public. way to generate revenues and solve Egypt has $44 billion in foreign another close ally. global market anxiety.” “This is where the fund proves some of our economic problems,” currency reserves at the central “The fund is also open for invest- to be extremely important, among said Egyptian economist Hany bank, but this amount of money ments from the local and foreign (Reuters) other things,” said Rashad Abdo, Tawfiq, who has extensive experi- is partly made up of Arab deposits private sectors,” Garhi said. “The an economics professor at Helwan ence in private equity and venture and loans. Egypt also needs the private sector will be a main part- University. “It enables the govern- capital firms. “Fund managers will reserves to secure the needs of its ner in this fund.” Libya cuts oil Decline of Algerian dinar adds to poverty, capital flight output due to power problems Lamine Ghanmi monthly salary is about 20% of that cies than banks. dollar and euro fall. Normally the in the European Union. Port Said Square is a major source opposite should happen,” he said. Libya’s National Oil Corpora- The policy is being criticised, of money for rich Algerians abroad. He and other economists said a tion cut oil production by about Tunis however, as subsidies become in- “Indeed, many Algerians invest depreciated currency nominally 120,000 barrels a day as its eastern creasingly burdensome for the heavily in activities such as restau- increases the value of state tax rev- subsidiary AGOCO faced power lgeria has steadily deval- state budget, causing waste and rants, hotels, services, or property enue from the hydrocarbon indus- problems due to unusually hot ued its currency over the making the country more depend- outright in some countries such as try as well as earnings from taxes weather, a company official said. past 48 years, keeping ent on imports. All of this at a time France, Spain and Tunisia,” said and duties on imports. AGOCO hopes to gradually re- A most citizens poor, the when the country is striving to re- Algerian university economics “This depreciation intensifies sume production, which has fallen country’s economy dependent on build a productive economy that teachers Bouteldja Abdelnacer, Be- domestic inflation,” said Mebtoul, to 146,000 bpd, when the weather imports and bringing about a new provides more jobs for the popu- nameur Abdelhak and Samir Maliki adding that “the level of inflation gets cooler, the official said. Pro- class of wealthy Algerians who in- lation, as well as more locally pro- in a joint study on the impact of the can be analysed by examining the duction was halted at the Massala vest abroad with smuggled foreign duced food and other consumer country’s faltering currency. level of productivity.” field and the Sarir field also has currencies. goods for its population of 40 mil- Algeria’s central bank says the The “labour productivity rate in power problems, he said. “A simple banknote of 200 euros lion. dinar’s value is mainly determined Algeria is one of the lowest in the ($235.6) is the equivalent of the av- Local economists said the depre- by the disparity between the rate of Mediterranean basin,” he says. (Reuters) erage monthly salary of a govern- ciation of the country’s currency inflation at home and in trade part- “The worker who is paid 200 eu- ment employee in Algeria,” wrote coupled with a rise of corruption ner countries in Europe and the ros per month does not have the civil servant Allal Bouhlal on social has benefited a select few in Al- United States. same perception of inflation as the media. “Is that worth the suffering geria. More and more, they said, worker who is paid 30,000 euros,” and the pains to end the French co- wealthy Algerians are using the he said. Turkish lira lonial rule in 1962.” foreign currency black market to The government is heavily In a difficult balancing act, the The official value of the dinar smuggle foreign currencies abroad subsidising imports to offset Algerian government has heavily weakens dropped from 4.94 per US dollar in and invest in businesses and real their high prices on the subsidised goods to tame inflation sharply, 1970 to 58.76 per US dollar in 1998. estate in European countries. domestic market and boost citizens’ purchasing On May 16 this year, one US dollar “The new trend is more and power. surrendering traded for 116 Algerian dinars. more Algerians are getting rich by Subsidies accounted for 13.6% of The steady depreciation has plundering the wealth from oil and “But there is a paradox. When Algeria’s GDP in 2017, official fig- some post-rate been part of the Algerian central gas to invest massively in Spain the inflation rate in developed ures showed. bank’s attempts to keep the coun- and France. Who permits them to countries for the 2013-2017 period “The system of subsidies in Al- hike gains try’s budget deficit artificially low smuggle such huge (amounts of) was under 0.5 %, the value of the geria is unique in the world,” said and its revenue from taxes on oil money abroad?,” asked Saad Larbi, dinar continued falling and the Mouloud Hedir, an economics Turkey’s lira weakened more and customs duties high. a private travel agency employee. prices of imported goods did not teacher at the University of Algiers than 2% on May 24, giving up “We are in a hurry to hoard euros “It is the same with illegal im- fall,” said financial expert Abder- and researcher at the local think- some of the gains it made after the not by buying them from the banks ports of Chinese products. For rahmane Mebtoul. tank Nabni. “No country in the central bank raised interest rates but from the streets. We are under- that, the money is wired from “In a productive economy, the world is doing the same as in Alge- by 300 basis points on May 23 in mining the country’s economy by Europe. The country is getting depreciation of the dinar or its ria. We subsidise agriculture goods an emergency move to prop up the destroying its main pillar, which is hit twice by losing revenues and slippage would further the rise of and petroleum products.” tumbling currency. the confidence on its currency and bleeding foreign currency flight,” exports outside oil and gas exports “For milk and cereals, Algeria The central bank raised its top the credibility of its policy-mak- he added. and cut imports. In Algeria, it is the has the resources and the ability interest rate to 16.5% from 13.5% ers,” said Slim el Bordji, owner of a Across the street from parlia- opposite that happens,” said Mebt- to produce them to satisfy domes- during an extraordinary meeting small restaurant in Algiers. ment in central Algiers is the oul. tic needs but to do that, subsidies prompted by the lira’s fall in recent Algerian financial experts say the country’s largest illegal foreign ex- “In Algeria, the state, through have to end,” he added. weeks. The currency had depre- government is heavily subsidising change market, Port Said Square. the central bank, depreciates the A 50-litre tank of gas costs the ciated as much as 23% this year imports to offset their high prices There, euros and dollars are ex- dinar to veil the real hole of the state 5,000 dinars in subsidies, before the bank’s move. on the domestic market and make changed with dozens of bustling budget deficit,” he added. Hedir said, adding: “That under- most goods affordable to the ma- money changers, who pay an aver- “We have the Bank of Algeria lines the anti-economic nonsense (Reuters) jority of workers, whose average age 40% more for foreign curren- devaluing the dinar when the US of this system of subsidies.” May 27, 2018 23 Culture Nadine Labaki, first woman Arab film-maker to win major prize at Cannes festival

Samar Kadi elected parliament. First-time MP Making Paula Yacoubian said she voted for history. Labaki in the ballot for electing the Lebanese Beirut speaker, a vote that was disquali- director and fied. actress Nadine he euphoria over Lebanese “I wanted to highlight the great- Labaki (R), director Nadine Labaki’s ness of Nadine inside the parlia- her husband win at the Cannes Festival ment after the campaign that was Lebanese T with her film “Capernaum” waged against her. I wanted to producer being awarded the Jury Prize was make a point that Nadine held Leb- Khaled clouded by comments from Hez- anon’s name up high and to tell her Mouzanar (L) bollah members belittling the un- that we are proud of her,” Yacoubi- and Syrian precedented achievement by an an said. “It was a direct retort to the actor Zain Arab female film-maker. smearing comments by Hezbollah al-Rafeea Manar Sabbagh, a reporter with members. I don’t understand how pose with the Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV, tweeted any person can see Nadine as a lia- trophy, on that “there’s no reason to be proud bility. She should be honoured and May 19. (AFP) of Nadine Labaki’s accomplish- celebrated by the state.” ment when the deaths of Hezbol- Hezbollah issued a statement lah militants in Syria are high.” clarifying that the comments made Hezbollah MP Nawaf el Moussawi by Sabbagh and Mussawi reflected pitched in saying: “Can you name their personal opinion and not the one movie about (Hezbollah’s) party’s stance. resistance (against Israel) or any “Capernaum” sheds light on Arab resistance winning a Western the plight of children begging in prize?” the streets of Beirut or engaging The tweets sparked a public out- in poorly rewarded labour. It was cry. A comment on social media considered among the leading con- blasted the Iran-backed group for tenders for Cannes’ top prize after entrenching Lebanon in a “culture it received a lengthy standing ova- the film staring her in the face one “I wanted to be in the head of will enable the voices of these chil- of death.” tion at its premiere. night when she was driving home these kids and understand what dren to be better heard and trigger Labaki used amateur actors liv- from a party. happens when you turn away and a debate.” ing in circumstances much like “I stopped at a traffic light and the kid goes around the corner and Labaki was gracious with her Children begging in the those in the film. The lead charac- saw a child half-asleep in the arms disappears,” Labaki said. country, “which, despite every- streets of Beirut or engaging ter, 13-year-old Syrian refugee Zain of his mother who was sitting on “I’ve been spending the past few thing it is accused of, gets by as in poorly rewarded labour al-Rafeea who plays the role of a the tarmac begging. It became an years going to detention centres, best it can,” she said. “It has wel- were thrust into the boy of the same name, was work- obsession for me… These kids are going to prisons for minors and it’s comed the most refugees in the international limelight ing as a delivery boy in Beirut until facing extreme neglect. A lot of the always the same theme that keeps world (relative to its population), through “Capernaum.” recently when Labaki discovered things I saw shocked me, children coming up: Why do you bring me despite not having the means to him. He had only just learnt to who were incredibly neglected. into this world if you’re not going meet the needs of its own popula- “How the hell does a movie write his name but turned in a per- “You feel completely power- to love me, if you’re not going to tion.” about mistreated children, child formance that critics said would less and that’s maybe why we turn nurture me, if you’re going to let However, she appealed: “We brides, illegal workers and a Leba- melt the hardest of hearts. away,” said Labaki, who is also me suffer so much, if you’re going cannot continue to turn our back nese director winning at Cannes In the film, Zain runs away from known for her far less gritty beauty to leave me to fate to raise me? and remain blind to the suffering somehow turn into an existential home after his desperate mother parlour story, “Caramel.” “It always comes up. It’s the why of these children who try their best crisis for Hezbollah members?” one and father sell his 11-year-old sister It was Zain’s on-screen rapport that breaks your heart.” to make their way in this Caper- commentator asked. into marriage for a few chickens. with an unbearably cute baby “Capernaum” is the third feature naum (confused jumble) that the “Obviously, this culture of death He takes his parents to court for Boluwatife Treasure Bankole that for Labaki, whose feature debut world has become.” sees an insult in a director telling having brought him into a world of created the most cinematic magic. “Caramel” played in Cannes’ Di- Labaki grew up during Leba- the story of a Syrian refugee that pain and suffering. Labaki discov- In an astonishing sequence, the rectors’ Fortnight in 2007. Labaki is non’s 1975-90 civil war and her was rendered as such by the very ered the girl who plays his sister, boy is left to look after the breast- the first Arab woman to have won a father missed out on his dream of same regime they’re fighting for,” Cedra Izam, selling chewing gum fed baby in a shanty town after his major prize at the festival and only becoming a film-maker. he added. in the streets. mother was imprisoned by police. the second to have had a film com- “I said to my father: ‘One day I Another tweet said: “Bravo Na- “Cinema is one of the most pow- The baby’s real-life Kenyan and peting for Cannes’ Palme d’Or. will go to Cannes.’ So I have helped dine Labaki. The Lebanese resist- erful weapons we have to draw at- Nigerian parents were arrested Labaki dedicated the Jury Prize my father fulfil his dreams,” she ance aka Hezbollah is the new opi- tention to problems, it is one of our during filming and the film’s cast- to her impoverished amateur cast said. um of the people.” responsibilities as artists,” Labaki ing director stepped in to look af- and her homeland. The controversy popped up in told Agence France-Presse. ter the infant in the absence of her “I really think about them (the Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly the inaugural session of the newly She said she found the idea for parents. cast),” she said. “I hope the film Travel and Society section editor. Leading writers discuss the state of the Arab novel in Tunis forum Roua Khlifi the importance of the novel as a panels focused on “the novel and literary genre. its ability to change” and addressed Tunis “The existence of a cultural insti- concerns over declining readership tution regardless of its objectives in the Arab world. eaning on his cane and or changes is an accomplishment “As for this year’s theme, which treading carefully, 70-year- to be celebrated and an important is the novel’s ability to change, it old Ibrahim al-Kouni was event to be praised,” said Mab- is important in the sense it brings L greeted by a crowd of people khout, who received the Interna- up other questions. Who reads the as he approached the theatre room. tional Prize for Arabic Fiction in novel? We cannot speak of read- Kouni, a Libyan novelist who is 2015. “We need to reflect on the ers in the Arab world anymore. a star of the Arab literary world, ability of the novel to change the There is even illiteracy. Even those was the guest of honour at the first mentality and the thoughts and educated in these societies do not Tunis Forum of the Arab Novel, people’s approaches to life and this read,” said Sakin. which took place in Tunis’s City of is the unprecedented theme and Kuwaiti novelist Saud Alsanousi Culture. The forum marked the in- we need to focus on this issue to be said novelists themselves were auguration of the House of Novel, able to understand it.” partly responsible for readers’ lack a newly created cultural institution Sakin also expressed his appre- of enthusiasm. in the City of Culture. Guest of honour. Libyan novelist Ibrahim al-Kouni speaks at at the ciation for the new institution. “If there is a danger to the novel Headed by Tunisian writer Kamel first Tunis Forum of the Arab Novel. (Tunis’s City of Culture) “Such meetings and forums are today, it is a danger presented by Riahi, the House of the Novel aims important on three levels,” he said. the novelist himself, especially to promote the novel as a literary “First, they serve to document the that there is a wave of novelists genre and to create a cultural hub Novel attracted hundreds of liter- crowded around to take pictures different opinions and reflections who are interested in appealing to for writers throughout the Arab ary figures, including writers and and receive autographs from the regarding the novel and novelists the foreign reader for the sake of world. critics. Among them were Kouni, literary figure. and especially the evolution of the getting translated and becoming “The House of (the) Novel strives Tunisian writer Chokri Mabkhout “The turnout of the audience is novel. The second point concerns internationally renowned,” said to become an important cultural and Sudanese writer Abdelaziz fascinating, which proves today the relationship of the reader and Alsanousi, who won the Interna- hub and a minaret of literature in Baraka Sakin. that novels and readers are an im- the novelists. When there is an ex- tional Prize of Arab Fiction in 2013. the Arab world,” said Riahi. “It also “The annual forum of the Arab portant portion,” said Riahi. change between the readers and “Today when we read these nov- aims to promote the Tunisian cul- novel aspires to become an annual “If it is true that there are no the novelist, this especially pro- els, we find the same stereotypes ture and the Tunisian writers. This meeting for literary figures and readers and that the novel has no vides support for young writers perpetuated by Hollywood. I don’t institution is one of its kind in the critics as well as fans of the novel following and that the novel is in who cannot find the opportunities find Arab characters I can identify Arab world. to exchange and discuss pertinent a critical state, then how come we to meet great novelists. with but rather those characters “Not only will it be devoted to issues to the future of the Arab have novelists that are still chased “It is also an important space for that the West wants to see. The real the literary genre of the novel but novel,” Riahi said. “This forum out of their countries? How come novelists themselves. Here differ- danger consists in the concessions it will be open for other genres also aims at engaging film-makers we still have novelists in exile like ent generations of writers meet that these novelists are making for and one of its objectives is to rein- and artists from other disciplines Abdelaziz Baraka Sakin, who did and these novelists are my teach- the illusion of becoming interna- troduce the genre of novel and to to work on ways to have the genre everything he can to come to the ers. When we meet, there is an im- tional writers.” promote novel writing and also to of the novel open up to other dis- forum today?” mediate learning experience for me praise and promote the Tunisian ciplines.” Mabkhout stressed that Tunisia as a writer.” Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel production.” Kouni’s appearance at the forum and the Arab world in general are Featuring novelists from Sudan and Culture contributor to The Tunis Forum of the Arab was a highlight for guests, who in need of events to shed light on to Iraq to Morocco, the forum’s The Arab Weekly. 24 May 27, 2018 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Part of the landscape at the town A view of the courtyard at the bed of Matmata in southern Tunisia. and breakfast Au Trait d’Union in (The Ministry of Tourism) Matmata. (Rashmee Roshan Lall)

Tunisia’s troglodytes follow a Agenda Tunis: Through June 10 different script from Star Wars The 36th Tunis Medina Festival is set for the Municipal Theatre of Tunis, Dar Lasram, Dar Hussein, Rashmee Roshan Lall Tahar Haddad Club in addition to the new Opera Hall of the Culture City. The festival includes Matmata concerts by Salatin al-Tarab from Syria, Zied Gharsa from Tunisia, ajet sits in her kitchen Gnaoua from Morocco and oth- about 6 metres below ers. Many street performances are ground level. It has no run- scheduled. ning water nor any of the N Amman: other basic conveniences much of the world takes for granted but Najet Through June 14 has no plans to leave the 300-year- Amman is welcoming visi- old house in the southern Tunisian tors from all over the world to town of Matmata. celebrate traditional Arab culture “It’s cooler (than above ground),” in the Citadel Nights Festival. As she says of the mud structure tun- the city comes to life each night nelled deep into the earth. “It’s during Ramadan, guests enjoy simple, it’s clean and it has all that’s traditional Arab dishes, authen- important for the body when you tic souks, classical Arab music, sleep.” folklore and handicrafts. She means the sound of silence from being underground. Najet was Jounieh: born a troglodyte — one who lives in June 16-29 a cave — except that the Matmatans inhabit mud houses dug out of the The Jounieh Summer Festival, earth and carefully constructed to a set near Jounieh Bay north of centuries-old formula. Beirut, will include performances Like those of the approximately from international artists such as 200 Matmatan families who still Sidi Driss, the underground Star Wars hotel in the town of Matmata. (Rashmee Roshan Lall) James Arthur, Julien Clerc and Il follow a traditional way of life, the Divo. house Najet shares with her hus- Every year, a few more move to above 50 degrees. We need no air dwindling tribe of true believers in Rabat: band, Kilani Ben Nasr, and their chil- brick houses in Nouvelle Matmata, conditioning in summer or heating the troglodyte lifestyle. Her mar- June 22-30 dren has a central courtyard, which the new town 15km away. However, in the winter.” ried son and two married daugh- resembles a large circular well with many stay on, stubbornly clinging to Azzouni’s family is careful to ters moved to modern homes years The 17th Mawazine Festival vertical walls. It is made of the re- their unique cultural heritage. maintain the troglodyte home year- ago. A third daughter, 27-year-old takes place in Rabat and features gion’s distinctive clay and gypsum Ahmed Gnouma, 41, is next door round. “Every week, winter or sum- Sabrine, is soon to wed a man who international and local musical soil. Rooms are built off the court- to the troglodyte house where he mer, we clean away the mud that lives in Kebili, the nearest big city. performances. yard. There is no bathroom or toilet lived from birth until the age of 32. constantly falls. We have a saying in “I want her to have her own life,” within the structure for fear a leak “I always liked how quiet it was Matmata, a troglodyte house needs Najet says of Sabrine’s impending Cairo: would seep into the mud and cause underground,” he says wistfully. “I the breath of human life to stay departure from the family’s under- June 25-July 2 the house to collapse. only left because my wife refused to alive. If we leave it, it will fall.” ground home, “but I won’t leave. Raqs of Course is a week-long The vernacular architecture on live there. She was used to a mod- Troglodyte houses may seem an Later, after my husband and I, this Egyptian dance festival that in- the edge of the Sahara Desert “melts ern house and a toilet near the bed- anachronism in the 21st century house will belong to our children cludes workshops, competitions within its environment,” a paper room.” and they arouse strong emotions and I hope they return from time to and performances. by British-Egyptian architect Mam- Khaled Azzouni’s family is try- — from admiration to prurient cu- time. It is their inheritance.” douh Mohamed Sakr states. Mat- ing to marry new ways with old. He riosity to claustrophobia at the Azzouni agrees that with every Marrakech: mata, he adds, “has many of the best lives most of the year in a modern windowless rooms. successive generation, the Matma- July 1-31 examples of troglodyte architecture house with his parents, wife and son In the 19th century, Matmatan tan way becomes less tenable. “I in the world. It is a prime example but returns to the nearby ancestral troglodytes provoked scholarly in- don’t think my 3-year-old son will The Marrakech Festival of Popu- of a whole settlement of earth-shel- troglodyte structure every summer. terest in the journal of the Royal want to live in a troglodyte house,” lar Arts and Folklore showcases tered buildings.” It makes good sense, Azzouni ex- Geographical Society. It featured Sir he says. “Young people want tech- traditional Moroccan music, The settlement is shrinking. In plains: “It’s the same temperature Harry H. Johnston’s 1898 account, nology, the internet… sometimes dance and customs from through 1967, there were twice as many trog- — 27 degrees — all year round even “A Journey through the Tunisian there are insects like scorpions in the ages. Visitors are invited to lodyte families in Matmata as today. though Matmata in summer goes Sahara,” which admiringly told of troglodyte homes and the young are attend concerts, exhibitions and Matmatan underground houses so afraid of them.” Moroccan street troupe perfor- warm and dry in very cold winter The troglodytes have unlikely mances. weather he thought they were arti- additions to their numbers, too. ficially heated. Patrick Bonel left his native France Carthage: The troglodyte dwellings became for a 350-year-old abandoned un- July 13-August 15 a subject of global fascination after derground house in Tijman village The Carthage Festival is one of they featured in Hollywood’s “Star near Matmata. Bonel laboriously re- the oldest arts and cultural events Wars” series starting in 1977. In the stored the house by hand and threw in North Africa, drawing a mix of decades since, Matmata has become it open as a bed and breakfast, Au local and international perform- a place of pilgrimage for fans of the Trait d’Union. ers to Tunisia over several weeks. films. Mostly, they visit Sidi Driss, “I’ve been here 11 years,” he says, Performances take place at the the rundown underground hotel “and I’m not leaving. It’s very good Amphitheatre of Carthage. that was cast as the fictional Tatoo- to live underground — 27 degrees ine home of “Star Wars” protagonist maximum in the summer — and Luke Skywalker. very inexpensive besides. You don’t We welcome submissions of Since 2012, Najet has tried to cash need cement or stone, just hard calendar items related to in on tourist interest. She opens her work to keep it liveable.” cultural events of interest to house to visitors for a few dinars travellers in the Middle East apiece and sells jars of Matmata’s Rashmee Roshan Lall is a columnist and North Africa. distinctive rosemary-flavoured hon- for The Arab Weekly. Her blog can Please send tips to: ey. be found at www.rashmee.com and [email protected] The entrance of a troglodyte house in Matmata. (The Ministry of Tourism) She admits that she is one of a she is on Twitter: @rashmeerl.