Interview Italy’s ripple After the Paula Yacoubian, effects across elections in Iraq a new face the Mediterranean and Tunisia in Lebanon’s parliament Page 18 Pages 3, 13 Page 5 May 27, 2018 Issue 158, Year 4 UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com EU €2.50 Risks of wider Middle East confrontation as Iran pursues ambitions ► Growing friction between Israel and Iran, with Tehran’s ambition of becoming the region’s superpower as it exerts growing influence across the unstable region, Looming peril. (AFP) lies at the core of the problem. Iranians take part in an anti-US and Israel demonstration in Tehran, on May 18. Ed Blanche interdiction of nuclear enrichment, In conjunction with that, succes- wield considerable power. cabinet was “strongly considering” ballistic missiles and Tehran’s re- sive layers of economic sanctions Trump has made it abundantly a long-term ceasefire with Hamas in gional ambitions through armed are being imposed on Iran’s key clear the United States stands be- Gaza, something it dismissed out of Beirut proxies. ally, Hezbollah, by the United States hind Israel, having moved its em- hand only weeks ago. Washington’s uncompromising while the United Nations urges the bassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem on That suggests that Israel, fearing he Middle East is in turmoil position on Tehran appears to have Lebanese movement to halt its mili- May 14, bolstering Israel’s claim to a serious clash with Iran in Syria, and all the signs are that set the United States on a collision tary operations, a key element of sole control of the holy city. wants to dampen violence on its wider conflict is likely but course with Iran after Washington Iran’s regional strategy. On May 23, Israeli Intelligence southern border to avoid a two- T there does not appear to unilaterally abrogated the landmark Right now, however, Hezbollah Minister Yisrael Katz indicated front showdown — or at least defray be any significant effort by the ma- 2015 nuclear agreement with the Is- and its allies see themselves on a Prime Minister Binyamin Netan- an international outcry over the jor powers — primarily the United lamic Republic. winning streak and are unlikely to yahu’s far-right government ex- Gaza slaughter. States and Russia — to avert calam- US President Donald Trump “may back off. pects more major concessions from Meantime, cracks are appearing ity. prefer to distance us from Middle They control Lebanon’s parlia- Trump — such as formal recognition in the alliance between Russia and Growing friction between Israel East conflicts,” Ross noted, “but ment following May 6 elections and of Syria’s southern Golan Heights as Iran, Syrian President Bashar As- and Iran, with Tehran’s ambition of they have a way of finding us and will effectively be in charge of the Israeli territory. sad’s key allies that have kept him becoming the region’s superpower withdrawal from the Iran nuclear government for the first time. Israel seized part of the strategic in power. Russia does not want to as it exerts growing influence across deal won’t stop Iran’s effort to ex- Thus legitimised, Iran’s influ- volcanic plateau in 1967 and unilat- use its air defences in Syria to com- the unstable region, lies at the core pand in the region. ence in the Levant, a key target in erally annexed it in 1981. This has bat Israel’s air strikes, which are of the problem. Tehran’s grand design, is expected never been internationally recog- primarily targeting Iranian forces. “An all-out war between Iran and Dennis Ross to intensify, antagonising Israel, nised. Tehran’s “lack of conviction” in a Israel is approaching and the Trump Washington Institute already alarmed at Iran’s growing That standoff could spiral into a political solution,” which Moscow administration has no strategy for Fellow and former US military power in Syria on its north- new Israeli confrontation with the favours, is a potentially divisive preventing it,” observed Dennis senior offcial ern border. Arab world, particularly if Netan- element that could reshape the Ross of the Washington Institute for The Israeli Air Force’s disclosure yahu is emboldened enough to try geopolitical element” at a crucial “Withdrawal from the Iran Near East Policy in a May 20 analy- that it has carried out combat oper- to annex the West Bank as well, juncture. nuclear deal won’t stop Iran’s sis. ations with its state-of-the-art F-35 dashing any hopes of a Palestinian In Iraq, the United States is reach- effort to expand in the region.” Consider how, in recent days, the stealth fighters from the US, only state — and thus a peace treaty — ing out to one-time foe Muqtada al- situation has seriously deteriorated months after receiving the first of 50 emerging. Sadr to blunt Iran’s efforts to trans- with the global states, traditional “To the contrary, sooner or later, of the most advanced fighter jets in The long-mooted embassy move form the Shia-majority country into arbiters of coexistence, seemingly that expansion will trigger a wider the world, underlines the tension. triggered major Palestinian pro- a Persian province under a new unable — or unwilling — to prevent war. Engage now or engage later Israel has been intensifying its tests, with Israeli military gunfire government. the region’s various conflicts merg- that’s the choice we face.” air strikes against Iranian targets in killing more than 60 Gazans and ing and reaching critical mass. The consensus is that Iran defies Syria. It may be a matter of time be- wounding thousands more as they Ed Blanche is a regular US Secretary of State Mike the Trump administration because fore open warfare erupts between protested on Israel’s southern bor- contributor to The Arab Weekly. Pompeo, an anti-Iran hawk, an- it sees the European powers — in- them. der. He has reported on the Middle nounced a new strategy of con- cluding Russia, Britain, Germany While cooler heads on both sides With Israel facing trouble on East since 1967. fronting Iran that goes beyond the and France — increasingly alienated want to avoid war, the hard-line two fronts, Channel 10 television anti-proliferation restrictions to the by Washington. camps in Tehran and Washington reported May 21 that Netanyahu’s P2,6-7 Arab world represented by unprecedented four teams in Russia’s FIFA World Cup Justin Salhani ages of Arab stars competing against country proud. Egypt is probably the Arsenal’s rising star Mohamed Elne- the best could also be an inspiration Morocco will learn just before strongest Arab team in ny — and Egypt could make a run for for Arab youth. this year’s World Cup whether it the tournament. Mo- the knockout stages. Milan Saudi Arabia is marking its return was chosen over a joint United hamed Salah leads the Expectations are high, especially to the World Cup after a 12-year ab- States/Canada/Mexico bid to team into the tourna- considering Salah’s success this he FIFA World Cup this sum- sence. The Saudis have sought to host the tournament in 2026. ment after a phenom- year. His popularity is so widespread mer for the first time will bolster their chances at success in Tunisia is making its fourth enal year with Liver- in Egypt his face can be seen adorn- feature four teams from the Russia by striking a deal with Spain’s World Cup appearance and first pool in which he scored ing walls around Cairo and he was T Arab world. Egypt, Morocco, top flight La Liga, sending nine Sau- since 2006. Youssef Msakni is the 42 goals in 48 matches. the runner-up in the Egyptian presi- Saudi Arabia and Tunisia all quali- di players on loan to clubs in Spain. star player after scoring a hat- Salah’s performances in dential election with more than 1 fied for the 32-team tournament, set The Moroccans are led by Juven- trick against Guinea in qualify- Europe have made Egypt million write-in votes — despite not for June 14-July 15 in Russia. tus’s Mehdi Benatia, who was born ing. Msakni, however, will miss a favourite of the tourna- running. The qualification of four teams in France but chose to represent the World Cup due to injury. ment, too. Add to that a means the eyes of the world will the country of his parents. Moroc- “We’re very happy to have done strong contingent play- Justin Salhani is an Arab Weekly be on the Arab region through the co qualified without conceding a the people of Tunisia proud by ing in leagues across contributor in Milan, Italy. performance of athletes and not single goal and citizens are hoping qualifying,” Tunisian striker Wah- Europe — including sev- through negative stereotypes. Im- the squad will unite to make their bi Khazri told the FIFA website. en in England such as P22 2 May 27, 2018 News & Analysis Pompeo’s Iran Speech Pompeo draws a hard-line list of demands from Iran but experts sceptical about compliance Thomas Frank realistic pathway to achieving them,” Maloney wrote. “It’s magi- cal thinking to suggest that after Washington 40 years and at the apex of its re- gional reach, the Islamic Republic S Secretary of State Mike will proffer a blanket capitulation Pompeo has issued a lita- in exchange for the promise of a ny of demands on Iran to future treaty with a government U escape American punish- that has just jettisoned an existing ment but, as admirable as the list agreement.” may be, there is almost no chance Conservative analyst James Ca- Tehran will comply, analysts said.