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Volume 11, Issue 4 ISSN 2334-3745 Volume XI, Issue 4 August 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 4 Table of Contents Welcome from the Editors..................................................................................................................1 Articles Israel's Policy in Extortionist Terror Attacks (Abduction and Hostage Barricade Situations).............................................................................................................................................2 by Boaz Ganor The Dawa'ish: A Collective Profile of IS Commanders..............................................................16 by Ronen Zeidel Assessing the Feasibility of a 'Wilayah Mindanao'......................................................................29 by Joseph Franco Awareness Trainings and Detecting Jihadists among Asylum Seekeers: A Case Study from the Netherlands..................................................................................................................................39 by Joris van Wijk and Maarten P. Bolhuis Research Notes Terrorism Events Data: An Inventory of Databases and Data Sets, 1968-2017....................50 by Neil G. Bowie Toward Academic Consensus Definitions of Radicalism and Extremism ............................73 by Astrid Bötticher Central Asian Jihadists in the Front Line.....................................................................................78 by Ely Karmon Special Correspondence Does the Proposed Cure Address the Problem? Examining the Trump Administration's Executive Order on Immigration from Muslim-majority Countries Using Publicly Available Data on Terrorism............................................................................................................87 By Daniel Milton The Islamic State after the Caliphate - Can IS Go Underground? ..........................................95 By Thomas McCabe Resources Bibliography: Root Causes of Terrorism....................................................................................102 Compiled and Selected by Judith Tinnes ISSN 2334-3745 i August 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 4 Recent Online Resources for the Analysis of Terrorism and Related Subjects..............................................................................................................................................143 Compiled and Selected by Berto Jongman Academic Theses (Ph.D. and MA) on Terrorism and Counterterrorism-Related Issues, written in English between 2013 and 2017.................................................................................176 Compiled and Selected by Ryan Scrivens Book Reviews Marc Sageman. Turning to Political Violence. The Emergence of Terrorism........................193 Reviewed by Alex P. Schmid Geoff Dean. Neurocognitive Risk Assessment for the Early Detection of Violent Extremists..........................................................................................................................................196 Reviewed by Leiya Lemkey and Daniel T. Wilcox Joseph Daher. Hezbollah: The Political Economy of Lebanon's Party of God......................198 Reviewed by Richard C. Dietrich Counterterrorism Bookshelf: 15 Books on Terrorism & Counterterrorism-Related Subjects..............................................................................................................................................200 Capsule Reviews by Joshua Sinai Annoucements TRI Thesis Award 2016: Top Finalists Identified .....................................................................208 By the TRI Thesis Award Jury About Perspectives on Terrorism.................................................................................................210 ISSN 2334-3745 ii August 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 4 Welcome from the Editors Dear Reader, We are pleased to announce the release of Volume XI, Issue 4 (August 2017) of Perspectives on Terrorism at www.terrorismanalysts.com. Our free scholarly online journal is a joint publication of the Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI), headquartered in Vienna (Austria), and the Institute of Security and Global Affairs (ISGA) at Leiden University, Campus The Hague (The Netherlands). Now in its eleventh year, Perspectives on Terrorism has more than 7,400 regular subscribers and many more occasional readers and website visitors worldwide. The Articles of its six annual issues are fully peer-reviewed by external referees while its Research Notes, Policy Notes, Special Correspondence and other content are subject to internal editorial review and quality control. This issue features four Articles, three Research Notes, two Special Correspondences, three Bibliographic Resources, and eighteen Book Reviews. Here are some of the highlights: In the Article section, Ron Zeidel, who created a unique database of some 600 past and present commanders of the Islamic State, reveals some of their backgrounds. Joseph Franco, provides a backgrounder on the IS Wilayat in the Philippines, based on his great familiarity with the local conflict situation. In the Research Note section, Neil Bowie provides us with a list of 60 databases in the field of terrorism studies, commenting on their specific features. Astrid Bötticher, who just completed her Ph.D. work at Leiden University, proposes new consensus definitions of ‘radicalism’ and ‘extremism’, based on her analysis of the history of ideas behind these concepts – showing that the two concepts should not be equated. In the Special Correspondence section, two American commentators – Daniel Milton and Thomas McCabe - reflect on President Trump’s immigration ban for people from certain Muslim-majority countries and on what the Islamic State might do after the collapse of its so-called ‘caliphate’. In the Resources section, the reader will find three bibliographic tools by Judith Tinnes, Berto Jongman, and Ryan Scrivens that allow our readers to keep up with the recent on- and offline literature on terrorism and related subjects. This is followed by 18 book reviews by contributors Richard Dietrich, Leiya Lemkey and Daniel Wilcox, Joshua Sinai, and Alex Schmid. Finally, in the Announcement section, we reveal the names of the two top finalists of the annual TRI Thesis Award and provide Abstracts of the winning doctoral dissertations. This issue of the journal was prepared by Prof. Alex P. Schmid, Editor-in-Chief, in collaboration with Associate Editor, Prof. Gregory D. Miller, and with the support of Prof. James J.F. Forest, Co-Editor of Perspectives on Terrorism. On the IT side, Max Geelen at ISGA (Leiden University) provided technical support. ISSN 2334-3745 1 August 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 4 Articles Israel’s Policy in Extortionist Terror Attacks (Abduction and Hostage Barricade Situations) by Boaz Ganor Abstract One of the most challenging type of terror incidents is that of an extortionist attack, such as hostage-taking and kidnappings. Extortion attacks require governments to evaluate a series of options for handling the incident, ranging from giving in to all of the terrorists’ demands, to full-blown military-rescue operations. Since the 1970s, Israel has handled a number of extortionist attacks, using the Rabin Doctrine, which advocates rescue operations as a means of handling the attacks. This policy led to a shift in the kind of attacks being perpetrated against Israelis, with a shift from hostage-taking attacks to abductions. During extortionist attacks, decision-makers are faced with the dilemma of how to deter future terror attacks, while ensuring the safe release of hostages. This article illustrates the dilemmas that decision makers face during extortionist attacks, and will highlight the options that decisions makers have, using Israel’s experience as a case study Keywords: Extortionist attack, hostage situations, terrorism, Israel Introduction One of the most complex and problematic types of terror attacks that decision-makers around the world must contend with are extortion terrorist attacks.[1]An extortion terror attack, by its very nature, poses a dif- ficult and ongoing challenge for decision-makers who must evaluate a series of options and make decisions that involve direct and immediate impact on human life. Extortion attacks include both hostage-barricade situations, as well as kidnapping attacks. The distinction between these two will be addressed in this article. For example, when a terrorist group attacks and takes hostages in a certain building or vehicle, threatens their lives and issues an ultimatum requiring compliance with a series of time-sensitive demands, authorities must make tough choices. The extreme circumstances of the attack present decision-makers with a series of difficult moral and practical dilemmas that must be addressed in a timely manner. It is imperative in these scenarios to strike a balance by deterring terrorist organizations from carrying out similar acts in the future while attempting to ensure the safety and rescue of the hostages in the current attack.[2] In other words, deci- sion-makers must balance today’s considerations with those of the future. In their chapter “Hostage Taking, the Presidency and Stress” (1998), Margaret and Charles Hermann dis- cussed the dilemma facing decision-makers in these situations. Decision makers must decide how to free the hostages, without succumbing to terrorists’ demands or causing the death of hostages and without reducing the government’s legitimacy. This dilemma is exacerbated by pressures
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