Humans Need Not Apply

HUMANS NEED NOT APPLY n e w h a v e n a n d l o n d o n A Guide to Wealth and Work in Work and Wealth A Guide to of Artificialthe Age Intelligence j e r r y k a p l a n HUMANS NEED NOT APPLY Published with assistance from the foundation established in memory of Calvin Chapin of the Class of 1788, Yale College.

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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For Camryn Paige Kaplan Turn your dreams into words and make them true. This page intentionally left blank America,the Brave Homeof Pharaohs, 7. America,the Free Land of Shipping, 6. Officer, Arrest That Robot, 5. The GodsAre Angry, 4. Robotic Pickpockets, 3. Teaching Robotsto Heel, 2. Teaching Computersto Fish, 1. Introduction: Welcomethe Future,to Preface Contents ix 49 59 33 77 17 93 1 107 CONTENTS viii Index, 229 Notes, 211 Acknowledgments, 209 Outroduction: Welcometo Your Children’s Future, 189 The Fix IsIn, 159 9. Take This JobandAutomate It, 129 8. I’m anoptimist. by nature, Not by U.S. but government design. would herald “atomorrow” great bigbeautiful harmony. incheerful robots animatronic Disney’s where Progressland, Electric’s General Monorail,Unisphere,the the and likefuture the of visions Âsparkling Brown Buster visit to StationCentral my Grand at IRT the catch into could loafers,I penny tucked dimes two the than less For City. the and me, to Oz of Land the help you savethegirl. the world andget Fantasticraywould and guns illustratedAdventuresspaceships how of Russkies.copiesclever Dog-eared them beat prosperity,peaceand pathtoeternal the as tomention waya not to innovationtechnological extolling imagery utopian of diet steady a this criticalemerging arenaleadership in was unthinkable. Ceding campaign. presidential his of centerpiece a gap” “missile the closing made Kennedy F. John Senator and swing, full in was war cold priority.The national a be should education science that decided government the satellite, space first the Sputnik, of launch Preface fe Rsi hmlae te ntd tts ih the with States United the humiliated Russia After The world of science fiction seemed to grow up right along- right up grow to seemed fiction science of world The seemed city ten,the of age YorkNew the to moved at I When fed were girls) many tragically, not (but me like boys Young World’s Fair was the Emerald the was FairWorld’s 1964 and Stories Amazing 1957 preface x the Stanfordin Intelligence Lab. Artificial ence at the University of Pennsylvania, I accepted a research position sci- computer Ph.D.in a and Chicago of University the at science of infinite theHal9000,of red halo to do. Ihad Iknew what humankind.the of destiny bythe Mesmerized of mysticalglimpse a his SATs.his But aced had Kirk Captain encouragement—surely and solace offered geometry,solid and calculus with struggled I As me. side counter opened a new door; I was invited to return to the Stanford the to return to invited was I door; new a opened counter en - chance A dotage. my into quietly fade to prepared quite wasn’t I find to only retired, and enthusiasm entrepreneurial my curbed their bulgingbankrolls.capitalists—came callingwith financiers—venture of class new a now projects; our build to funds researchfor around scrounging time.been same Wehad the at rich get and world the change to chance call—a siren its made Valley withanadvancedcontact extraterrestrial civilization. large clearing the inside semicircular structure toseemed await first A beard. pointed his stroking halls the AI—haunted or intelligence, term the coined who lab, the of McCarthy—founder John minds.have could machines whether over philosophers with bated de- Logicians lot. parking the around aimlessly moseyed casionally oc- robots hours; odd at halls the through wafted music electronic Strange campus.Stanford’s of west hills gentle the in rise isolated an atop sat lab dilapidated the wizards, quirky and geniuses eled I thought I had died and gone to heaven.dishevto by gone Inhabited and died had I thought I philosophy and history in B.A. a earning later,afterTenyears eea satp opne ad hry er ltr I finally I later, years thirty and companies startup Several Silicon restless. grow can natives the paradise, in even But : A Space Odyssey Odyssey Space A 2001: took things to a new level with level new a to things took Star TrekStar artificial artificial - PREFACE xi To To my surprise, the lab was completely The different. people offered I lab, the of spirit original the rekindling of hopes the In Having witnessed enough frames of the movie, I could see Lab—and AI Stanford the in people dedicated and brilliant The AI Lab, but this time as a gray-haired patrician, knowledgeable in the the in knowledgeable patrician, gray-haired a as buttime this Lab, AI world. commercial bad of the big, ways were just as bright and but enthusiastic, the sense of common mission was The gone. field had fragmented into a number of subspe- making cross-disciplinary Mostdialog cialties, more difficult. people were so focused on their next breakthrough that I felt they had lost sight of the broader picture. The original goal of the field—to discover the fundamental nature of intelligence and reproduce it in electronic form—had given way to elegant algorithms and clever demos. to teach a course on the history and philosophy of artificialintelli aware acutely became I subject the matter, into dived I Butas gence. of some serious issues looming on the horizon. that a happy ending is anything but assured. Recent advances in the field are poisedto make anastonishing impact on but society, whether we will make a graceful transition or emerge bruised and is uncertain. battered their many colleagues in universities, research centers, and - corpo rations around the world—are working on the twenty-first-century moral equivalent of the Manhattan Project. And, like the staff of that supersecret project to develop the atom bomb, only a few are cognizant of the breathtaking potential of their work to transform lives and right livelihoods, down to altering our concept of who we are and our proper place in the universe. It’s one thing to make a preface xii life. Sowhat’sthe bigdeal? the fussnow?Why all real in happened has terrible nothing and fordecades movies the in ideas, our andfight wars. subversive for communications our all scan read, we stories news our operate technology farms, manage our pension funds, hire and this fire workers, which select of versions capable more mentally incre- when another quite but mail, intramural delivering hall the addresses,and readsdownnames tootles that then robot little cute Sure, but that’s science fiction. We’ve seen this kind of stuff of kind this seen We’ve fiction. science that’s but Sure,

HUMANS NEED NOT APPLY This page intentionally left blank introduction Welcome to the Future This page intentionally left blank n a nutshell, after fifty years of effort and billions spent on research, we’re cracking the code on artificial intelligence. It turns out that it’s not the same as human intelligence, or at least it looks that way right now. But that doesn’t matter. In the words of computer scientist Edsger Dijkstra, “The question of whether machines can think is about as relevant as the question of whether submarines can swim.” Whether the website that finds you a date or the robot that cuts your grass will do it the same way you do doesn’t matter. It will get the job done more quickly, accurately, and at a lower cost than you possibly can. Recent advances in robotics, perception, and machine learning, propelled by accelerating improvements in computer technology, are enabling a new generation of systems that rival or exceed human capabilities. These developments are likely to usher in a new age of unprecedented prosperity and leisure, but the transition may Ibe protracted and brutal. Without adjustments to our economic system and regulatory policies, we may be in for an extended period of social turmoil. The warning signs are everywhere. The two great scourges of the modern developed world—persistent unemployment and increasing income inequality—plague our society even as our economy continues to grow. If these are left unchecked, we may witness the spectacle of widespread poverty against a backdrop of escalat- ing comfort and wealth. My goal is to give you a personal tour of the breakthroughs fueling this transition and the challenges it poses for

3 INTRODUCTION 4 can becomprehended by simplecreatures like us. do. In most cases, that’s because there is literally no explanation that they what do they how tasks, understand specific fully don’t we but at good incredibly are word.They the understand commonly we as minds,havewords,don’t other desires.they In personal pirationsor as- independent of hint any con- exhibit scious,self-reflective, don’t and aren’t machines these future—because foreseeable the for exhibitingintelligence,superhuman that’s but least misleading—at as them describe reasonably might You mind. human the to sible inacces- insights grasp and patterns glean can systems these tions, transac- card credit and posts, blog searches, online sales, ticket as flow, such footprints electronic traffic own our as quality,well heights—as wave ocean world—air physical the of aspects monitor their environment. experiencesystems these how your leisure,of idea an you’llget and world down to a pace where you can sample and ponder all of this at distant sounds, and read every word as is it published. Then slow the yousmart would be if you could see through thousands of eyes, hear how Imagine networks. and computers through stream that data moreexoticthe forms of also but informationus written to familiar They are capable of comprehending speeds. not only the visual, auditory, blinding and at examples instructive of mountains scrutinize can systems these absorb, can they experiences of scale and scope the in limited are who humans, unlike But experience. from learn deployed, already are which class,of many first the of systems New progress whilereducing government intrusion inourlives. promote society.that free-marketsolutions some suggest also will I As we amass data from an expanding array of sensors that that sensors of array expanding an from data amass we As fronts. two on advancing is intelligence artificial in work The INTRODUCTION 5 - This area of research doesn’t have a universally accepted Synthetic intellects are not programmed in the conventional The second class of new systems arises from the marriage of call Depending researchers iton name. - ma the and focus approach, chine learning, neural networks, big data, cognitive systems, or - ge among I others. will netic simply algorithms, generically refer to the . intellects product as synthetic of their efforts cobble You them sense. together from a growing collection of tools and modules, establish a goal, point them to a trove of examples, and set them loose. Where they wind up is unpredictable and not under their creator’s control. Synthetic intellects will soon more know about you than your mother be does, able to predict your behavior better than and you can, warn you of dangers you can’t even I will describe perceive. in some detail how synthetic intellects work and why they transcend our common preconceptions of what - com puters can do. sensors and actuators. They can see, hear, feel, and interact with their When surroundings. they’re bundled you together, can - recog but putting nize them “robots,” these into systems a as single - phys ical package is not essential. In fact, in most cases it’s undesirable. The sensors may be sprinkled throughout an environment, on the tops of streetlights or in with other smartphones, their people’s ob servations servations harvested and siloed in some distant server which farm, - exe be may plan The plan. a formulate to information this uses then - for exam by or controlling remote cuted indirectly, devices, directly, of the results Often, action. some desired to you take by coaxing ple, these actions are immediately sensed, leading to continuous - revi hand just guide your do to when pick you up as sion you of the plan, an object. INTRODUCTION 6 you calculus—but not all such systems will be working on your behalf. mote your personal interests, represent you in negotiations, and teach to enough be to able affordthem. Bespoke electronic agents may pro- lucky if you’re effective, and efficient more you make but drudgery surgery,performing andcooking meals. gourmet cars,fixing as such skill, and knowledge of level high a require that tasks physical perform to unison in work laborers—can forged and forged laborers. the seabed, and fight wars. I will refer these embodied to systems as fires, bridges,fight to inspect mine places inaccessible or dangerous in independently deployed be may they harvest or houses, build pipes,crops,and lay to workers human with concert in working be laundry.may folding They and sidewalks,washing cleaning houses, painting fields, tending about, and out be will systems new these floors, them. around designed environment is the In contrast, where factory on tasks single repetitive, performing to relegated chines chaotic, dynamicenvironments. in chores of range astonishing an perform tirelessly can gence,they generalintelli - and routine.sense considercommon lack they While ceptively simple, because they accomplish physical tasks that people to route you (andthem) more efficiently. that of other drivers to trafficdetect conditions, which it uses in turn with information your pooling often you, directs GPS), by (usually directions.driving program,The yourmonitoring location speed and In principle, all these developments will not only free you from you free only not will developments these principle,all In intellects systems—synthetic of types two these course, Of ma- special-purpose meant mostly has automation date,To Perhaps the most remarkable of these systems will appear de- automated follow you when system a such of part are You INTRODUCTION 7 The irresistible lure of temporary bargains and 1 Humans Humans are suckers for the What quick Jaron win. Lanier pre It’s It’s one thing for these systems to recommend what music You might wonder why someone would build a system that will custom-tailor servers” “siren short-term sciently incentives calls persuading you to do things that to notdesires, may your be in your long-term interests. faster delivery may obscure the gradual destruction obscure the of gradual may thatdelivery the lifestyle faster you can hold order You near a and new dear. rice cooker online tonight but the cost include doesn’t the gradualand get ittomorrow, delivered itoutneighbors and puts the home your near stores retail of closing of work. you should listen to or what toothbrush you should It’s buy. quite another when we permit them to take action on their to own—or, use make buzzword, them today’s autonomous. Because they operate on timescales we can with barely access perceive, to volumes of they data can we on wreak can’t havoc an comprehend, unimagina- plac- ble scale in down electricalthe blink grids, of an eye—shutting millions of canceling credit cards. on hold, ing all airplane takeoffs could do such things. It’s simple prudence to design in safeguards such as that simultaneous protectshort against events, circuits rare in two These or catastrophic, more critical power lines. transmission - reg alarming with happen to seem somehow events once-a-century When they ularity. do, there isn’t time for a so-called human in the loop to review the decision in context because the damage is done literally at the speed of light. As scary as it sounds, the launch of a Russian nuclear missile would at least afford us a few minutes to but a ofon cyber a attack action, course nu- an appropriate consider clear power plant could disable its control systems in an instant. So but little choice to have trustwe the machines protectto us. INTRODUCTION 8 and agood night’s sleep. penicillin regulatory of shot a with fixed be can that something like of name sound “systemicunassuming risk,”it makesthe which non phenome- new strange this give stability.Economists and fairness its in faith our is system, which financial our of foundationvery the shook titans these of clash random seemingly forces.The opposing capable equally of behavior and presence the predict cannot so and data, historical using models sophisticated their test and develop Designers other. each on programs their of effect the was ticipate hypothetical—it’s already happenedwithhorrificeffects. disaster.natural isn’t a This of characteristics the on take can brawl encounter each other. The scale and speed of the resultant electronic may conflict in are goals whose systems autonomous more or two instant but also detect and exploit eachother’s andexploit alsodetect but instant trading strategies. an in disappear and appear that opportunities profit small reap only not systems these trading, high-frequency as known world cretive murky,control.the of In out owners, gotten their se- had of behalf on comforting: Competing computer programs, buying and selling stocks hardly is answer the and happened, had what out figure to months their headsindisbelief. scratching left were exchanges stock the of floors the on Specialists things. other workers,among of millions of savings retirement the representedevaporated, that temporarily valuemoney asset in lion tril - $1 Over minutes. of matter a in place taking drop the of most Average), Industrial Jones Dow the on points thousand (one cent What the creators of these electronic card sharks couldn’t an- couldn’tsharkscard electronic these creators of the What May On when know never you cyberspace, of wilds untamed the In It took the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission nearly six six nearly CommissionExchange and U.S.Securities the took It 6, , the stock market inexplicably plunged inexplicably market stock 2010,the per 9 2 - INTRODUCTION 9

2010 may - have atten caught regulators’ But the root cause is much more sinister—the emergence of of “Flash The Crash” The emergence of powerful autonomous agents raises seri- Autonomous which cars, are only a few years from broad de- invisible electronic agents empowered to take actions on of behalf the narrow self-interests of their owners, without regard to the consequences for the rest of the world. Because these agents are stealthy and incorporeal, we can’t perceive their presence or - com prehend be their better We’d capabilities. off with robotic muggers and run away. see —at leastthem coming could we tries have sprung up that do nothing but sell weapons in the form of programs and data to companies brave enough to wade into these Later in melees. never-ending this book I will describe one such arena in detail: the monumental cluster fight that takesplace behind the page. web a load you time every ad an you show to right the for scenes ous ethical questions. Much of the way we allocate shared resources among people follows The unstated social town conventions. - regula tions near my house permit me to park in a spot for up to two hours, on the assumption that it me for is to my inconvenient car move that But what if often. my car can change spots my Will personalby itself? behalf? my on theater movie the at line in stand to permitted be robot decisions split-second The issues. serious more much raise ployment, these contraptions will have to make pose ethical questions that have bedeviled deep thinkers for millennia. Imagine that my car is crossing a narrow bridge and a school bus full of children suddenly tion, but it tion, did nothing to slow the of application similar techniques visit Any buy time something, you to of a other wide domains. variety a website, or post a comment online, a hidden army agents, of working electronic for someone else, is watching you. Whole indus- INTRODUCTION 10 someone hire youthem? buyingoneof insteadof should Why programs. and devices new these by replacement to vulnerablebecome mental, will and physical activities, both ductive proof range astonishing An respectively. intellects synthetic and laborers forged from threat under come soon will jobs white-collar today’sand blue-collar of section cross broad pose.A systems these the widerinterests societyinawhole new way. of soon have to grapple with balancing the needs of individuals against will institutions Our attack? heart a from you save to hospital the to you speed to refuses that car autonomous an grass”Or the sign? a obeying “Keepis off it because mauled being from child saveyour to fails that robot dog-walking a about feel you will How cretion. dis- individual of amount certain a exercise occasionally can people to servetwenty-year-old my daughter wineat it Thanksgiving dinner? direct I if me report to required be it Should behalf? my on lie and I own a whole fleetof them? Can my personal electronic assistant customer,should the What is “onerobot customer”a per when mean conundrums. practical of raft a raise will agents individual our as act arrive steps. onourcourthouse this, no longer confined to the musingsof philosophers, will urgently like quandaries Moral mileage? gas like point selling a become car mylife saveto children?the aggressivenessWillthe self-drivinga of haveto go overthe edge. Would I buy a that car is to willing sacrifice will them of one that clear it’s both destroying avoid to so hicles, ve- both accommodate can’t bridge side.The other the from enters er aot o icvr ht al ax a rgt te inev the right: was Marx Karl that discover to about We’re dangers economic the to comparison in pales this of all But that assumption the on regulations and laws crafts Society that laborers forged and intellects synthetic of emergence The -

INTRODUCTION 11 - - 1 percent percent may be the beneficiaries of these of beneficiaries the be may percent 1 0 percent, just as the pyramids of ancient Egypt As bizarre as this sounds, the future will be a struggle of as- But there are even greater risks. When we think of AI, we When tend we think of AI, risks. Butgreater even are there itable itable struggle between capital (whose interests are promoted by management) and labor is a losing proposition for workers. What he didn’t fully appreciate is that we’re all workers, even managers, doctors, and college professors. As an economist, Marx understood that industrial automation even if substitutes capital for your labor, he didn’t quite have forged laborers in mind. But what he couldn’t your for capital substitute also can intellects synthetic that is foresee mind. So the conflict he characterizes between poorly paid workers and highly compensated managers—people against people—cuts if few, need will is that wealthy problem the real The way. wrong the atthem people all. for work to any, sets against people, as the resources accumulated by our creations serve no constructive purpose or are put to no productive use. As I so-called the explain, will trends today, trends but today, without some careful precautions as to who—or what—may own a assets, there’s real possibility that the the Will last human dismissed please of us overboard. more ing ever can off. no need—they turn themselves Actually, the lights? turn off to picture a future full of robots as docile servants or malevolent overlords (take your pick), or giant computer brains buried in - forti nothing quite like the image of There’s a grimacing cy fied bunkers. borg to Butraise your hackles. this is just our bias anthropomorphic dan- real The astray. us leading treatments Hollywood countless and will shrink to the drained the resources of an entire society to whims of serve The a economy single we as ruler. know difficulttoday, to the personal throw withouton us, motoring of danger in is be, itas may manage INTRODUCTION 12 debates. I will attempt to demystify the magic under the hood by hood the under magic the demystify to attempt will I debates. policy ongoing the reframe to required ideas and concepts tional may all float yachts whilesinkingall rowboats. everyonerelativesharewhile livesin else poverty. Increasingwealth lion’s the takes oligarchs superwealthy of cadre small a if matter doesn’t income average And jobs. new these by required skills the acquire to opportunity the nor time the neither have Current may workers fact. the not matters, that pace the it’s warming, global off.better arewe that mean necessarily markets,labor With with as deeper,doesn’tdig youthis average.when on But and aggregate in needs.expandingdesiresand our to caterto emergeTrue enough— will jobs new that and boats, our all floating wealth, increase will livering adisproportionatethe already shareto rich. new wealth of They are also substituting capital for labor in completely new ways, de- the labor markets can possibly adapt, and there’s much worse to come. clip, furious than fastera far at jobs and industries gutting alreadyare technology information in advances demonstrate, will I As progress. technological accelerating is driver underappreciated one certainly but inequality, economic and unemployment persistent of causes app? smartphone a against jobs, back their youfight can took how that but looms the smash could Revolution Industrial early the of Luddites The worse. get inexplicably to seem just can Things perceive. or see can’t you that threats about worry cloud.It’sto the hard in servers remote on like swarms of insects, and disembodied synthetic intellects residing tinyforged of laborerscomesorganizedarmies fromger distributed In the first chapters of this book I will lay out some founda- some out lay will I book this of chapters first the In productivity improved the that is this to rejoinder usual The root the over hands their wringing are makers policy Modern INTRODUCTION 13 - - - Then I will suggest practical solutions to some of the most seri- Unemployment is going to be a serious problem—but not, I will propose an approach to this problem in the form of a explaining why most of what you believe about computers is wrong. wrong. is computers about believe you what of most why explaining Unless you understand what’s really happening, you can’t - appreci happen in to likely the future. what’s ate and regulate to system legal our extend can we how as such issues, ous hold autonomous systems responsible for their actions. But the - eco have will we problems serious most the far by are consequences nomic to address. The obvious simple solution, to redistribute the wealth from the rich to the is poor, a nonstarter in our current political - envi of cause problems; underlying the the address It doesn’t also ronment. boil. a to coming from it preventing of hope the in pot the up stirs just it Instead, I will present a framework that applies free-market solutions creating. are we problems the underlying structural address to because surprisingly, of a lack of jobs. the Rather, skills required to do the available jobs are likely to evolve more quickly than workers can adapt without significant changes to howwe train our work force. force. Our current sequential system of education and work—first you go to school, then you get a job—was fine whenyou could ex pect to do more or less the same thing for a living throughout your working life. But looking it forward, simply isn’t going to The work. nature of the jobs available will shift so rapidly that you may find your skills obsolete just when you thought you were starting to get Our ahead. current system of vocational largely training, a holdover from medieval apprenticeships and indentured is servitude, in need of significant modernization. new type of financial instrument, the “job mortgage,” secured ex clusively by your future labor (earned income) similar to the way INTRODUCTION 14 their wealth instead of them. of instead wealth their morevisibility giveWepeople to need manage fiduciaries of system opaque an because it know don’t just might expect, in the form of pension funds and Social Security—they you than more own already they starters, For assets? buy to afford Jane and Joe average the can how economy. But asset-based an in participation public broad of favor in scales the tilt can success,we company’s a from benefit stockholders many how on based taxes corporate scaling keel.By even more a on society keep to programs of variety a for foundation the as serve can which PBI, or index, fit bene- public the call will I which ownership,corporate of measure objective,government-certified an propose inequality.will income I markets, enforcedthe free throughthe disciplineof market. labor into liquidity and feedback of form new a introduces scheme marketplace.the effect,valuedIn by skills the this acquiring areyou you a better offer, you at least but havethe comfort of that knowing makes else someone if position particular a accepting to advancein committed enroll.be Youwon’t won’t students else loans,or the of required by sponsoring employers in order to meet the requirements institutions will have to craft their curricula around the specific skills lender. mortgage home a Trainingfor serves appraisal an as lenders These letters of intent the will same servepurpose for job mortgage through.follow ultimately they if breaks tax payroll certain get will ing letters of intent to hire you if you acquire specified skills, and they nonbind- way.issue new will Employersa in collaborate to centives until you findanotherjob. period, grace reasonable some for suspended are Payments work? property.your exclusively of by secured is Out mortgage home your But our greatest societal challenge will be to rein in growing in rein to be will challenge societal greatest our But in- have will schools and employers system, proposed the In INTRODUCTION 15 - - We We don’t need to take from the wealthy and give to the less So why can’t our chosen leaders better assess the situation Letting nature take its course—as we did during the Industrial the during did we course—as its take nature Letting and control over and over their control with nest incentives to eggs, direct the assets toward high-PBI companies. A side benefit is social stability. The temptation to riot and loot the local department store is greatly di- a stockholder. are you know you minished if fortunate because our economy is not standing continually it’s still; expanding, and this growth is likely to quicken. So all we need to do is distribute the benefits of future growthmore and widely, the problem will slowly melt A away. carefully crafted program of tax incentives, portfolio and transparency, increased individual control over asset allocation based on the PBI offers us a way to keep from prosperity. capsizing in the rising tide of concentrating and actions?take corrective Because you can’t steer when you can’t and At can’t discuss you what the can’t articulate. you moment, see, our public discourse lacks the concepts and exemplars to properly describe what’s likely to happen as technological progress acceler ates, much less solutions. guide us to reasonable to ates, centuries—is nineteenth early and eighteenth late the of Revolution a dangerous gamble. Per capita income rose but dramatically, the period extended an during suffering human untold entailed changes of economic We transformation. can ignore the coming storm and eventually everything will work out fine, is but“eventually” a long our condemn may we actionand now, foresight some Without time. descendants to half a century ex or more of poverty and inequality, ceptlikes Everyone to for play a the lucky chosen lottery—until few. the Welosers can’tare wait identified. to see winning who’s before action. we take INTRODUCTION 16 if we don’t keepof progress. thewheel ourhandsfirmlyon freedom, convenience, and happiness, it’s but to going be a rough ride of eraextraordinary an in sweep will technology new of tsunami the Some have expressed this in the form of engaging stories; engaging of form the in this expressed have Some advances. technological recent of risks the about alarm the rung inplace overtwo.public policieswe decadeor put the next ics tenderly cared for by our own creations will largely depend on the haves on Easy Street or as freethinking artists, athletes, and academ- the join to chance fora dime last paupers,ateour gamble to willing challenges.navigatethese cessfully desper as up wind we Whether suc- to required framework psychological and foundation, ethical investors of hearts everywhere. the quickening is labs research the in cooking what’s And so. do to incentive no there’s because assets and livelihoods of destruction vices; Pandora displaces radio. Little attention is paid to the resulting ser taxi decimates Uber retailing; book dominates Amazon made. be to is money big the where that’s industries—because entire of I truly believe the world will be will world the believe truly I dent we can craft a future of eternal peace and unbounded prosperity. entrepreneur.technology mine fromthe perspective a of concern, of chorus growing the to voice different a add to is here have brought to bear the analytical skills of economists. of skills analytical the bear to brought have Welcomethe future,to the past. whichbeginsin Of course, Of thoughtfultalentedhavemanywriters and already My goal in this book is to equip you with the intellectual tools, disruption SiliconValley the of grailentrepreneursis holy The Despite this litany of plagues, I remain an optimist. I’m confi- I’m optimist. an remain I plagues, of litany this Despite not not Trek,Star In the end, the Terminator.In 4 My goal My 3 others - - 1. Teaching Computers to Fish This page intentionally left blank y 1960, IBM realized it had a problem. At a conference four years earlier, in the summer of 1956, a group of leading academics convened to consider how to build machines that, as they put it, “simulated every aspect of human intelligence.” The collection of brash young scientists brainstormed for two months among the stately Georgian spires and lush gardens of Dartmouth College, fueled by the bold prediction of the organizers that “a significant advance can be made in one or more of these problems if a carefully selected group of scientists work on it together for a summer.”1 They may not have agreed on much, but they unanimously adopted the moniker “artificial intelligence” for their endeavor, as suggested by their host, the mathematician John McCarthy. It was a heady time. B Returning to their respective institutions, few seemed to notice that the optimistic goals of the conference were largely unmet. But that didn’t stop them from expressing their enthusiasm for the newly minted field. Their predictions were soon featured in general-interest publications such as Scientific American and the New York Times.2 Among the conference organizers was Nathaniel Rochester, a star researcher at IBM’s Watson Research Lab, who was tapped to lead the company’s nascent AI efforts. But as word spread about his team’s work on computer programs that played chess and proved mathematical theorems, complaints started to mount from an unexpected source.

19 TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 20 only do what they are only dowhat programmedto do.” their sales forcealso armed the simple riposte, with “Computers can but recommendations these implemented only not management department. new Rochester’s shutter and AI in research all cease company the threatentheir own jobsasmanagers andsupervisors. someday might buy to them urging that was IBM suggest computers same to the another quite but bills, out sent and memos up typed who clerks lowly replace to thing one wasgo. might It AI into push new this far how just about concerned were makers decision objection,the sales force began that reporting to back headquarters every to answer an with armed and tactics aggressive for nowned Re- government. and industry to equipment data-processing latest computers together (networking) was(networking)of,unheard together computers havingless much two Connecting result. the stored then data, that on operatedtion, aninstruc- fetched memory, finite a from data some loaded that evenperhaps today. weredevicestime monolithic the Computers at agree,to (called chunks quick programming”),“structured manageable be would more ever into down problem a break you which in following your every instruction! here: fear these electronic brains are just obedient to mechanical servants blindly Nothing world. the throughout rooms” “computer air-conditioned special in floors raised on installing was IBM boxes mysterious,Pandora’scoloredthe brightly about concerns neutered century.half deftly last It the of memes cultural potent and culated This straightforward phrase may be one of the most widely cir Rising to this challenge, an internal suggested report IBM that the sell to was force sales IBM’sstoried of focus singular The rgamr shoe i sqeta se-ie processing, step-wise sequential in schooled Programmers 3 Perhaps concerned for their own jobs, members of IBM 4 - TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 21 - - Despite the lofty goals of the field, AI programs of the time In the context of the time, these efforts could be seen as an But the early AI researchers quickly ran into a problem: the access access to volumes of information generated and stored elsewhere. do then this, “Do of sequence a as described be could programs Most Rinse and repeat. instructions. that” Following this the reinforced paradigm. orientation of the founders, many early AI efforts focused on stringing logical axioms together As they a result, a ofform proof. mathematical to reach conclusions, tended to focus on domains that were amenable to logical analysis and planning, such as playing board games, proving and theorems, solving puzzles. The other advantage of these “toy” problems was about data messy of amounts large to access require didn’t they that the least. say to supply, in scarce which was world, the real obvious next step in expanding the utility of computers. The machines were initially conceived as general-purpose calculators for War building like tasks ballistics tables for World the military during II; IBM had successfully beaten these electronic swords into plow shares shares by applying them not only to numbers but also to the - pro simply were researchers AI documents. and words, letters, of cessing further expanding the class of processed data to include symbols of any kind, whether preexisting or newly invented for specific pur came called AI be of to style this Ultimately, chess. playing like poses approach. systems the symbolic computers didn’t seem to be powerful enough to do very many in- who Formalists teresting studied tasks. the arcane field of theory of computation understood that building faster computers could not address this No problem. matter how itspeedy could the computer, never tame what was called Solving the “combinatorial explosion.” TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 22 interviewing experts to incorporate their skills into AI programs be- programs AI into skills their incorporateto experts interviewing in specialized who Programmers doctors. or masters chess as such together, ratherthey but usedforthe rules in pruning. propositions logical stringing of process the or solution a for search pro- rote the in not lay answer the that realizegramming” to “heuristic came soon in Researchers programs. these in was telligence the search space. solutions that were unlikely to work. This process was called pruning steered that you rules to away turn from candidateon wastingtime would you shove to came push when but power, computing able much searching for an answer as you could afford to, given the avail - as did you Basically, size. manageable to problems the down pare to thumb” of “rules as described be loosely could which heuristics, of study the into went effort Great complex. the more as got problems out peter quickly to tended programming to approaches sound logically that issue the address to attempts as characterized efficient route. most the take always don’t they that notice may you why is which instructions, driving you give applications mapping contemporary how not today,that’s even And started. get never would trip your to New York by measuring each and every way you could possibly go; opments. ply drops when vast tractsnew of land are filled with housing devel- of running of out the steam same way pressure in a city’s water sup- real-world problems through step-wise analysis had this nasty habit Most Most of these rules came from experts in the problem domain, in- the exactly, where, over out broke debates Monumental be could research AI of decades several next the of Much from San Francisco driving route quickest the finding Imagine TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 23 - - - A small fringe group of AI right researchers, from the earliest So the researchers simulated that structure in a computer, So the question naturally arose: What is the nature of ex pertise? Where does it come from, and could a computer program become an expert The automatically? obvious answer was that you needed lots of practice and exposure to relevant examples. An ex pert car race isn’t driver born with the ability to push a vehicle to its operating and limits, a virtuoso isn’t born holding a violin. But how experience? learn from to program get a computer you could days, thought that mimicking human brain functions might be a notwas then do the “Do that” this, that They recognized better way. took brain the that appeared it and computer, a program to way only a more different, flexibleThe approach. problemwas that precious little was known about the other brain, than that it contains lots of intricately interconnected cells called neurons, which appear to be chemical and electrical signals among themselves. exchanging at least in a very rudimentary form. They made lots of copies of a similar program, in structure to a neuron, that accepted a bunch of inputs and produced an in output, a They repeating then cycle. net worked these copies into layers by connecting the outputs of lower layers into the inputs of higher The layers. connections were often numeric weights, so a weight of zero might mean not connected and a weight of one hundred might mean strongly The connected. adjusted automatically they way the was programs these of essence their weights in response to example data presented to the inputs came known as “knowledge engineers,” and the “knowledge resulting came programs engineers,” known as certainly a were While programs these systems.” “expert called were step in ofthe very few right them direction, turned out to be robust problems. real-world practical enough solve to TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 24 a cnetd o vr preto a te et ee, seemingly a level, next the at perceptron every to connected was level lowest the at perceptron one least at unless inputs certain ing specific ways, a networkof perceptrons was incapableof distinguish- in that,limited provingif paper read widely a published researchers hisfriendlyacademiccompetitors,kled someof MIT. at particularly ran- work his forRosenblatt’s claims that mention to approach, not this of potential ultimate the assess to hardwas problems.it toy So on demonstrations small mainly were results the programs, tems sys- symbolic with as was, problem The input. the in patterns ple sim- (classify) recognize to learn could perceptrons his of network the system settleddown. untilthese weights throughout it propagate to crank the turned then possible, as examples many as presentednetwork. simply researcherthe The of layer lowest the of “perceptrons.” RosenblattCornell in at didn’t work initially. very well—at least of ples the computertell than examples. sufficient Rather present to programmer the requires ply stitute the domain of discourse for the problem, while the latter sim- the programmer to predefine the symbols and logical rules that con- requiresformer the that is AI to approaches networking neural and the point: was it simplyadifferent approachto programming. beside was do brains way the functioned actually programs these whether networks.” But “neural programs these called they phize, Not to let this challenge go unanswered, two prominent MIT prominent unanswered,two go challenge this let to Not olwn te edny o A rsaces o anthropomor to researchers AI for tendency the Following n o te alet erl ewrig fot ws y Frank by was efforts networking neural earliest the of One The differencemost important between the symbolic systems you want it to do.to practice, terrific, in it youwantwhat sounds it but This 6 He was able to show that, with enough training, a training, enough with that, show to able was He to solve the how problem, you exam show it - 1957,programmatichis called who neurons 5 - TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 25 2000s 1990s and exponential exponential growth is 8 The reality, however, was The however, a reality, little different. In practice, 7 At At this point, readers close to the field are likelyrolling their But there’s a deeper story here than researcher-gets-idea, The scale of this change is so enormous that it’s difficult to witnessed a resurgence of the old techniques, with persuasive increasingly results. Rebranded as machine learning and big data, and enhanced with advanced architectures, techniques, and use of these statistics, programs began to recognize objects in real - photo words graphs, in spoken and phrases, just about any other form of patterns. that exhibits information slightly slightly more complex networks easily overcome this problem. But science and engineering don’t always proceed rationally, and the had perceptrons that prove formally could you that suggestion mere limitations called the entire approach into question. In short order, dried up. progress) most therefore funding (and eyes that I’m retelling this shopworn history-in-a-bottle tale, which ends with the underdog winning the day: the There’s idea-gets-quashed, an idea-wins-the-day. important reason why machine learning was so weak in the late twentieth century compared to symbolic systems, while the opposite is true Information today. technology in general, and computers in changed. Not particular, just by a little, not just by a lot, but so dramatically that they are essentially beasts different today than they were fifty ago. years conjure up meaningful analogies. The term so so (and around thrown imprecisely) often that most people don’t really understand what it means. It’s easy to define—athat quantity changes in proportion to a fixed number raised toing power—but a chang- it’s hard for the human mind to grasp what that critical critical flaw. TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 26 en.Te powers The means. today with only minor the bumps way.along remarkably,1965, but through continuedunabated has pattern this riod.Gordon Moore, cofounder Intel, of trendas early as this noticed pe- sustained a such for exponentially grow would machines these computerrevolution, of power the couldhave one that no predicted months, which is an exponential pace (power of twenty-four to eighteen every approximately doubling been have memory, and density, transistor speed, processing as such puting, atomsnumber of the entire in universe. estimated the than larger is sequences,figure example the these of first the in steps eighty just quickly.In very large mind-bogglingly 128 (powers of come with two terabytes (two thousand gigabytes). The equivalentgigabytes). The thousand (two terabytes two with come two years forthe ten next years, it’s unreasonableto not to it expect havetaken more notice. may you gallon, per miles hundred two say, of, order the on ago, same cost. the If gasdid your times six mileageyears it eight car got the much pretty ago,for upgrades three did it as memory much as times contains eight yourphone that end,considerdidn’t world but sixty-four.The thirty-two.Then memory. Then of gigabytes sixteen for sprang likely you upgrade, to bothered you if later, years Two time. its for miracle small memory,a of gigabytes eight spacious a had have may smartphone first Your it. realizing without yourself cades. sofar, But progress respite. marches onwithout de for warned have watchers industry concerned indeed as row, For at least the last half century,com - half of measures last the important least at For o poet hs owr. f o ugae or hn every phone your upgrade you If forward. this project Now achievement remarkable this experienced probably You’ve 2), are numeric examples. these But numbers can get 100, 1,000 (powers of of (powers 10,000 9 It could It tomor all end 2). At the start of the , and 10), 32, 64, - TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 27 - To my children, this storymy children, is just To the oframblings an old-timer Imagine how mileage like this would change things. Gas So your phone might have two thousand gigabytes of stor age. age. What does that mean? To put that in perspective, your brain contains about This one is hundred “giga-neurons.” not to suggest that twenty bytes of computer memory is as powerful as a neuron, but you that get within quite if a the possible, notIt’s picture. likely, decade or two your smartphone may in principle as have much - pro cessing power as your brain. It’s hard to even imagine today what quite possibly just around the and it’s will we do with all this power, corner. talking aboutBut days. the to this good me, is ol’ Over the personal. 1980 winter holiday break at Stanford, I helped some researchers from SRI build International a that program could answer questions posed linguistic in capa- Though English the to system’s a database. bility was rudimentary compared to the today’s, team Gary leader, was Hendrix, able to use this demo to raise venture capital funding named Symantec. that he cleverly company a new for improvement in gas mileage for your car would be over six thousand thousand six over be would car your for mileage gas in improvement miles per could You drive gallon. from City New York to Los Angeles and back on one gallon, and still have enough left to make it down with just another gallon. refueling, before the winter for Atlanta to stand- near a to come would oil for Drilling free. be effectively would still. Airlines and shipping companies would constantly scramble to adopt the latest hyperefficient motor technology. The cost package freight, plane delivery, and tickets, of consumer goods would drop Thissignificantly. blisteringrate of change is precisely what’s happening in the computer and industry, the secondary effects are everywhere. businesses and labor markets transforming TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 28 rahs o I A sm pit lre nuh ifrne i quan- in differences enough large point, some At AI? to proaches the Internet, isastonishing. data of nearly every kind, stored on devices accessible to you through call or send a text message. The enormous and growing mountain of phone a make you time every demonstrate you instantly,as nearly cost. the of fraction a forII, Apple that as memory much as times million twelveabout days of CD-quality music. My phone literally has over hold memory,can of gigabytes sixty-four has today,which around I’m contrast,carrying phone By music.the CD-quality of second one about store could II Apple that perspective, in this memory. put To of bytes thousand forty-eight of maximum a supported and disks floppy on information stored machine remarkable II.This Apple the time, the of computer personal state-of-the-art a me loaned had Gary project. the support to architecture database flexible a gether until the basis for what we now call IP addresses, wasn’t even standardized practicalpurposes, barelyexisted.concept the Protocol, Internet The In quantified. in meaningfully be even advances can’t networking the computers, yesterday’s and today’s of memory AI Labin1980. far more computing power than was available to the entire Stanford has words these typing am I which on computer million.The a half merely of factor a That’s orbit. in while Station Space ternational In- the of speed the and crawls snail a which at speed the between 1982. So how did this affect the relative success of the various ap- various the of success relative the affect this did how So What What does a factor of Sequestered in my basement for two solid weeks, I cobbled to- hl i’ psil t cmae h poesn pwr and power processing the compare to possible it’s While 10 Today,data share to able are devices of billions literally 1 million mean? Considerthe difference , for all for 1980, 1

TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 29

- Important subtleties of this technological are revolution easy The original symbolic systems approach was tailored to the commonly (more networking approach neural The alternative But as time went the by, comput situation Today’s reversed. ers can not only billions literally represent of thanks neurons to but, the they Internet, can easily access enormous of troves examples to learn from. In contrast, there’s little need to interview experts and shoehorn their pearls of wisdom into memory modules and - proces available those to compared slow and small vanishingly are that sors today. tity become qualitative. And the evolution of computers is clearly in this category, in even this though category, progress may seem gradual on a day- to-day or basis, from Christmas gift to Christmas gift. As you might expect, machines so vastly different in power may require different programming techniques. You don’t race a snail the same way you a spaceship. race would - com little precious was Since there at the time. available computers data puter-readable at available and all, no way to store any significant volume of it, researchers made do by handcrafting knowledge they painstakingly distilled from interviews with The experts. focus because solution a for search to algorithms efficient building on was the limited processing power would not permit ambitious. anything more called machine learning today), which attempted to examples, simply learn required from too much memory and data for computers to demonstrate There meaningful were early results. no - suffi ciently large sources of examples to feed and to even the programs, too far was simulate could you “neurons” of number the could, you if small learn anythingto but the simplest of patterns. TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 30 they are only dowhat programmedto do.” they“can that canard old the from cry far a instinct: on acting and answer. They are best understood as developing their own intuitions they do and how they do it than human experts—they just know the thinking about. These programs are no better able to articulate what any morethan I can look into your brainto understand what you are understand or explain they what know or theyhow solve a problem, to structure intricate,evolving their into peer to programs learning feed for it amillennium. you and search, to computer a teach millisecond; a for it feed you equally to wellmachines as people: Give a computer some data, and ably be expected to tackle. The old proverb, suitably updated, applies creators,their of ties couldreasonhuman no - that problemssolving capabili- the exceed rapidly systems learning machine today’slem, prob the solve to how to as them instruct to insight,needed or the spoon-feed and codify to humans on dependence from day. Freed every grows data example of volume the and to, access have they examples of amount the to proportion in smarter grow to appear programs Current become. can programs learning machine expert how just on limitations no be to seem there date,To overlook. to iso. In mission. corporate its to value its recognizing to and AI of potential the ing company aroundthis initiative. entire the reorganizing is effort: Indeed,computing.it cognitivethe for term own has,characteristically,its and coined agenda research broad a into victory this parlaying now is player,IBM Jennings.Ken world’schampion the over victory spectacular a with tise I’m long ago that IBM came aroundto happy to report accept machine of creators the for impossible it’s cases, most In te opn dmntae is nhue exper in-house its demonstrated company the 2011, 11 Jeopardy! - - - TEACHING COMPUTERS TO FISH 31 - As of this writing, three years later, you can purchase four four purchase can you later, years three of As writing, this 12 200 million pages of content consuming four terabytes of It’s worthIt’s had noting ac- named Watson, that program, IBM’s cess to memory. . Check back in back Check $150. about for Amazon from storage disk of terabytes and two the years, price will likely be around Or $75. wait ten years, Wat that assured be way, Either $5. about back you set should it and a smartphoneto coming are near you. progeny son’s This page intentionally left blank 2. Teaching Robots to Heel This page intentionally left blank ossibly the first time a robot actually ran amok was in 1972 at a lab near Boston. Marvin Minsky, head of the MIT Artifi- cial Intelligence Laboratory, had written a proposal suggesting that a doctor might someday be able to control a robot arm re- motely to perform surgery. But he needed an actual computer-controlled arm to in- vestigate the idea. So he called his friend John McCarthy at Stanford, who arranged to lend him a research assistant to help out with the project. Victor Scheinman, a young mechanical engineering whiz, quickly designed a prototype that was later to become the basis of one of the first commercially successful computer-controlled arms (the PUMA, for programmable universal manipulator for assembly).1 The theory was great, but the reality lagged behind. The arm Pwas heavy, difficult to control, and had to be bolted to a table for stability. One day, probably due to a programming error, the arm started to oscillate back and forth. As it gained momentum, the table began to shake violently, then started to rock its way across the room with each swing of the arm. A hapless graduate student working in the lab didn’t notice at first as the newly mobile robot approached. By the time he did, it was too late: he was trapped in a corner. He crouched down and cried for help as his mechanical tor- mentor relentlessly approached. Just before he was to become a historical footnote, a coworker rushed in to halt the control computer and bring the rampage to an end.2

35 TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 36 I refer to as “AI theater,” extracts a hidden cost. Like calling the In- the calling Like cost. hidden a “AItheater,”as extracts to refer I wouldn’t havetelevision curbappeal. the same had just that but name, technical-sounding more a given and system data-retrieval sophisticated very a as described been have well as just couldprogram possible.IBM humanly The than fasterplete,far com- was clue the that signal a receiving after milliseconds button answer the pressing quickly, in” “ring to ability its was advantage finish.to forcontestantswait him human to Buthad Watson’s main in start “computerhead enormous computeran time”the the while giving talking, began Trebek Alex when instantly transmitted was the to listening wasn’t Watson that realized even observers Few achievement. technical tremendous a to adornments incidental were These problem. the about thinking was that mind a had machine the that suggesting lights swirling of a calm,tone of voice,didactic much up to less a put headlike graphic in responses system “say”its the have to reason technical no really them ashumanliketemptationto view isirresistible. they aren’t. But the results,the interpret to which with exemplars available only the of understanding deep a Without conventions. social our by abiding and understanding of capable arethey are,reallythat they assuming intothan and likeus more are machines that believing into people misleads also it But increasefunding.attentionattractand to order in likeus act or look that objects anthropomorphize to tendency natural our exploiting dangers.able,significant carries it of but history a long has field The understand is brawn and brains human of analogs as particular The gratuitous anthropomorphism plaguing the field, which field, the plaguing anthropomorphism gratuitous The IBM’s in robots and general in systems AI of think to tendency The Jeopardy!-playing Watson is a recent example. There was these systemswork,these how as humans with and clues at all: the text text the all: at clues Jeopardy!

TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 37

- off buttons, of the sort commonly So it’s not surprising that when robots with humanlike - me The problem is that these early robots typically just repeated Industrial robots have evolved significantlyover the decades, ternet “cyberspace,” ternet “cyberspace,” which implies that it is somehow a separate domain exempt from our laws and regulations, it muddies public understanding and therefore hampers important policy issues and debates. chanical appendages began appearing on semblance some with behave factory to them expect to people for tempting floors, it was of human social such restraint, as not lashing out and striking people Besides, randomly. as everyone knew, they could only do what do. to programmed were they dan- serious in were you got in you way, If their cue. on motions rote It or quickly worse. became clear ger ofthat getting OSHA whacked, (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) rules regarding factory floor safety musttreat these robotsas a new class of enhanced machines, not as dumbed-down workers. In factories and research labs, including the one at MIT, the standard practice was indicating tape on robot, acolored the to place floorbrightly around “kill inside a zone” of which you were forbidden to venture without depicted in movies, were placed in strategic locations in case of an emergency. of in control, been their precision the buthave most of advances the - gen a As cost. and weight reduced as well as durability and strength, around designed be to have environments working their matter, eral can’t typically they Because around. way other the than rather them, surroundings those otherwiseor sense surroundings, their hear, see, have to be simple and predictable. If an industrial robot arm is ex special precautions. Giant red TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 38 chine learning techniques, combined with increasingly sophisticated ma- applicationof the images.visual interpret programs that But in steady and so,slow or been decade progresshas past the tion.Until tered (suchasahuman head). encoun- are obstacles unexpected when instantly respond can and damage cause mechanisms,to haveproducts ability fartheir less so designs use lighter-weight materials and more sophisticated control New robots. of design industrial the in improvements is third The techniques. learning machine in progress and power computing in increases two—vast first the discussed already I’ve technologies. to change, hold until Idirected it like strings. amarionettewithout dutifully would it which poses,various into arms robot’s the guide to me for experience an quite was it so, do to invited was I When its own motions, of potentiallycould it lethal short stop actions.just plan opponent’sand movesits track fencer mechanical the did only find a graduate student having a mock swordfight with a robot. traps, I was quite surprised, upon returningthe to Stanford AI Lab,to formto yours. con- can’t it because needs robot’s the to accommodate must You sprays that arm waterand soap around indiscriminately.and blindly rotating a for care with placed be must cup and dish Each reason. floor,tory asnovice players doin golf. fac- the on mulligans forrestarted. beg be can’tto They has process entire the or be to it’ssupposed where exactly be better well damn pecting a bolt to be in a particular position at a particular moment, it But the real breakthroughsBut areof machinepercepthe field - in advancing four of confluence a is possible this made What Because I was trained to steer clear of these mechanical death Your kitchen dishwasher is the designed way is forit the same 3 Not TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 39 - You You 4 Soon, just 5 group of young people playing a game of Frisbee”). of game a playing people young of group The same basic techniques can be applied to all sorts of sen- change to going is technologies four these of cocktail potent A can buy You a robot that can Andvacuum your floors. already and inexpensive cameras, and has inexpensive cameras, led to a sudden acceleration of capabilities. Programs can now examine pictures and videos to rapidly and and people, actions, objects, recognize describe them with high (“a accuracy about every physical task you can imagine will be subject to - auto busing painting cooking meals, exterior and interior mation: spaces, dishes, cleaning tables, serving food, making beds, folding laundry, walking laying dogs, fetching pipe, washing taking sidewalks, tools, justto name a small number of and directing traffic, sewing, tickets, examples. consumer-facing may already see a primitive example of this when your camera iden- camera your when of this example primitive a see already may in its viewfinder. faces of tifies presence the sors, of course. Systems can identify songs by their sound, classify diagnose car even and sonar ships soundings, at sea based on radar readings. or ultrasound using EKG diac ailments everything. Once again, we lack adequate reference points to - prop erly anchor our understanding, but a good place to start forged preprogrammed, repetitive laborers. Today’s mechanical is de- with vices are primitive precursors to robots that and plan, can hear, see, adapt their behavior to chaotic and complex real-world situations. will be able to many, accomplish quite simply, These robots are that, manual labor. human require thattasks currently if not most, load garden, a weed thatcan robots are development commercial in and unload randomly follow shaped you from boxes delivery trucks, around carrying your bags, and pick crops. In fact, they can selectively even harvest only the fruit that is ripe and ready. TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 40 who share one heart anddigestive system.who share oneheart twins conjoined to peculiar less seems it suspect I but odd, sound may organism. That same the of parts two aren’t I and you why to they may beembodied, not the conventional in the word. senseof words, other In space. physical of expanse contiguous particular a “locality.” is, operate That or in to confined be on exist theynot need there’shavetrade what’s must the systems reasonsuch in no called R 2D, factotum mechanical the or C3P0 humanoid milquetoast the self-contained,like be may devices these of some While robot. a of of this remarkable trend are not confined to our common conception lucrative markets. most and earliest the of one be well very may off,and far not are chapter in discuss will I (which prostitutes Roboticmassages. ing giv and hair our cutting as such tasks intimatesettings,moredo to into them permit will we devices, sophisticated comfort these with our grows As price!) low same the for assassinations targeted get and pack face-recognition optional an retrieval.Add manual of inconvenience the save to tracks their retrace then poison,lethal of dose painless a deliver to shafts ventilation and jams door through shimmy can that insects robotic human-seeking solar-powered of anyone— including extremists about worldwide—is likely to be able to field a swarm just so or decade next the within example, (For nightmarish. unbearably are which of some applications, the military are there Then devices. robotic other repairing even sorting, assembling, inspecting, polishing, cutting, and shelves,welding ing straighten - and stocking orders, packing and picking as such tions, o my odr h yu r yu n nt e a opposed as me, not and you are you why wonder may You it’sBut to understand that the important various components applica- industrial the on touch to begin doesn’t this And 8) - TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 41

- My per My 6 120 years ago, after millions of years of evolution, Performing Performing any given task requires certain resources and - ca You You are an example. Because biological creatures by them- About mean. ultimately will this what outsorting still We’re sonal view is that the entire history of electrical engineering, elec- tronics, radio, television, the Internet, computers, and AI to date is merely our initial awkward attempts to explore what can be done pabilities. These resources fall roughly into four categories: energy (so you can do work), awareness (the ability to sense the relevant aspects of the environment), reasoning (so you can formulate and adjust a and plan), means (so you can actually get something done, these of none principle, In hands). your objectwith an up picking like resources have to be colocated. In practice, it’s often useful that they are. they (as distances long over energy or transmit communicate can’t selves far as all we know), their body parts The have to be near each other. cells that make up your body communicate with biochemical and nerves. and conduits various through transmitted impulses electrical a So good design there’s reason are thatnear your (awareness) eyes your brain (reasoning), and your feet are found at the ends of your one engine all of to power Not to mention that there’s legs (means). (energy). food your from resources extracting this, something magical happened: through us, life suddenly developed Marconi Guglielmo constraint. locality the of free burst to means the commonly radiation—more electromagnetic out use howto figured called radio waves—to transmit information instantly between distant locations with no evident physical connection. And Thomas Edison figured out how move to energy, in the form of electricity, cost. low at a relatively wires through TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 42 would be far better if you could separate your ears and eyes by yards sounds interest.locate of to Yourment ability and perception depth environ- the throughout distributed sensors of network a with off better be would contrary,they the Quite bodies. their on mounted be to alternatives) appropriate (or ears and eyes their for need no mation superhighway. infor so-called the on roadkill becoming of danger in are result,we this book.to use in in graspingas I can terms attest for As a the best us,on down bearing changes technological the discuss to yet ulary vocab the have even don’t we Likewise, road. the down speeding threats metallic two-ton detecting to attuned aren’t senses whose creatures of corpses with littered highwaysare Our Internet. the on reputation your or cloud radiation a like diffuse, and moving, fast boundaries.It’sare that invisible, things understand to hardermuch physical clear have and earshot within are survival immediate your to most matter that things the when world your organize to way feedsthat the hand you?bite not meal,why next your with you’reinterests.only ateconcernedIf way of encouraging us to take a view broader than our own immedi - nature’s as understood be sympathy, can and love as such stincts, in- social highest our of Many people. other us: like most objects animate the for affinity special a havevarieties. We inanimate and intoup objects, it ing separateto webegin which soon into animate them. exploit Machinesare. to actors best the aren’t creatures,we biological evolving slowly as sure: for thing’s one But phenomena. discovered newly these with But how will robots experience the world differently?There’sworld the experience robots will how But good a is objects of collection a as surroundings your Seeing pars- by world the understand to start we birth,after Shortly - - TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 43 - Why bother to to bother Why 7 Similarly, Similarly, there’s no reason for the means by which robots Free of the inconvenient constraints of what locality, will - ro human- a imagine to easy It’s housepainter. robotic a Consider put all that computing power out in the field where it may get rained get may it where field the in out power computing that all put hours a week? on and be used only a few instead of inches, not to mention if you could add additional ones at ones additional add could not you if mention to inches, of instead will facing in various directions. Consider, for instance, how much better the automated ShotSpotter system is at locating gunshots than are. the police pursue their goals to be bound together in one package. They can consist of a collection of disconnected and interchangeable actua- the and logic motors, tors, tools. Finally, that coordinates and drives all of this can be anywhere, like the remote drone pilots in the Ne- desertAfghanistan. missiles in vada unleashing Hellfire bots look like to us? because Unfortunately, of our natural history, is notthe answer much. mortal its alongside brush a swinging and ladders climbing form oid instance) as a squadron to appear (for likely more But it’s coworkers. a bag trailing and nozzle a spray with outfitted each drones, flying of and other each from distance precise a maintain drones The paint. of the wood siding of instantly your adjusting Colonial, for wind gusts and other factors. As they individually run low on supplies, they fly over to a paint barrel to automatically refill andrecharge, thenre- turn to the most useful A open series position. of cameras sprinkled around the perimeter of the project continuously monitors this fly ing menagerie and assesses the and progress The quality of the job. actual device directing this mechanical ballet needn’t even be - pres ent. It can be what’s called software-as-a-service (SAAS) rented by cloud. Amazon the on running and manufacturer the TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 44 opein Te .. eatet f rnprain aog other among Transportation, of Department U.S. The completion. to close areears, and eyes of system interconnected one becoming essentially wirelessly, information share to sensors roadside and vehicles for Standards appear. they as autonomous or contained to haveactive enough the name earned “swarm robotics.” is this like concepts on Research people. individual even structure, assemble to form a protective dome or blanket around homes, infra- self- a might they summoned, action.When into spring awaiting to command foxholes miniature into themselves digging insects, of size the to shrunk extinguishers, fire the imagine technologies, the National Forestat Service. server a by directed and hotspots potential in positioned tegically tinguishers, capable of rollingtheir way aroundthe forest floor, stra- solar-powered, of army wildfire ex an heat-seekingmobile Imagine house. a painting than diverse geographically more much are that some resourceful entrepreneur happen. makingit (Go for it!) nologies requiredto this do are available now. It’s simply a matter of engineersupgradethe system andaddcomponents. uct prod- as necessary be won’t that cloths,soon droplay facesand but system’scost.the In incarnation,first sur the workers prep may still today’s of fraction a at week, be a of couldinstead afternoon an house in painted entire An drones. the on turns and barrel, paint the opens tablet, his on running app an on area target the marks cameras, the up sets up, gear,shows fancy this all for loan the off vn efdiig as rnt on t b nal a self- as nearly be to going aren’t cars self-driving Even today’s in rooted staying while future the to further Looking perform to like would we tasks of lots course, of are, There tech - the All not. it’s but fiction, science like sound may This paying be still might contractor, who painting licensed Your - -

TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 45 - As sensors, effectors, and wireless communications continue Finally, many arenas involve only the manipulation of infor mation, mation, such as our financial educationalsystems, and institutions, and means reasoning, awareness, The energy, entertainment media. to perform useful work may be entirely available in the electronic domain, requiring no locality at all. Needed data may be collected instantly from around the world, tasks may be shifted at will, and stock a where instance, (for convenient most wherever taken actions happens be open). to exchange institutions, institutions, is developing so-called V2V (vehicle to vehicle) communications protocols by piggybacking on the - Communica Federal tions allocation Commission’s of radio spectrum for dedicated short- range communications (DSRC) specificallyintended for automotive applications. Integrated with trafficcontrol and energy management your future car systems, will simply be the visible ofmanifestation an integrated flexible public transportationsystem, centrally monitored and the managed, same your cell way phone is best understood as an more no is magic The system. communication enormous an in element TV. in your located are TV shows phone than car or your in your to improve, they will vanish from view as surely as computer technology has. I’m old enough to recall a day when you could pick up a piece of computer memory and literally see each bit (called “core we memories”). perceive Today, gigabytes of computer memory as flat, blackrectangles the size of a postage stamp, if they are- phys ically separable from other components at all. Someday you may be walking through what looks like a pristine wilderness, blissfully thatunaware collaborative an network extensive of self-organizing, devices are maintaining the environment and watching out for you visiting Disneyland. were as though you you!) (or watching TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 46 roast hot dogs, hot roast bread, toast cans,open make juice, eggs—and poach well: brew coffee, heat soup, cook rice, pop popcorn, churn ice cream, thing one do to designed each tools, seldom-used with littered are true.kitchen mybe Cabinetsin will opposite the fact in thing,when everylittle todo contraptions special-purpose magical with filled charge by capturingwave motion. And soon. re- that lifeguards robotic swimming with extinguishers the place re - could Guard Coast the Bernards.Then St. mechanical as serving extinguishers autonomous the missions,rescue with and search for used be also could above described system firefighting the that ize their sharedtechnological componentscause are very similar. be- knife,army Swiss a of equivalent electronic modern the device, economical single a by displaced disappeared, nearly have markets phone.cell Today, actual their an mentionand to gadgets these not player, CD a VCR, a camera, a car,your for GPS a owned have may opposite. exact the do counterparts mechanical life,”their of branching “tree a in another one from differentiate and proliferate creatures ical biolog- Whereas simplify. and coalesce to technologies for dency its effects. to signed perceivethis new magic in action, we’rebut to still subject de- aren’t information.We process and work perform to electricity of power the phenomenon: same the of manifestations different just really are they instructions, written of series a as programs of h tpcl ad igie) ocpin f h ftr i one is future the of conception misguided) (and typical The real- quickly could Guard National the wild, the to Returning you past, the In phone. mobile your instance, for Consider, ten- counterintuitive:seem the may trend inevitable Another and objects as robots of think may we while that is point The TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 47 - It’s It’s relatively easy to understand how distributed mechanical Imagine a single forged laborer replacing them all. If it needs with functions these of all perform could laborer forged a Such The current trend toward technological and complexity diver sity is a temporary diversion—a modern-day Cambrian explosion fueled by electricity but destined to settle down into mechanical yet shape. to phyla take these are only the ones that need electricity. The remaining cabinets cabinets remaining The only ones the electricity. need that are these hold an incredible variety of handheld tools and cooking utensils, larger Not the mention to corkscrew. a to press garlic a from ranging compact trash, ice, make food, preserve dishes, wash thatappliances and cook. to dice some onions, it could fetch the needed its component box from of optional attachments. It could stand all day dishes—no and need wash to place them into the specialized racks of that dumb device with rotating arms that wastes soap and And water. between it meals, could shell sunflower make seeds, ice pol- cream, But stop why It and there? also steak. could tenderize ish silverware, clean the floors, make the beds, andeventually change the baby’s If the why diaper. weather notpermits, have it plant and grow food in the backyard? nothing more than the primitive equipment to available a medieval cook. Which is the point: the future looks a lot more like will butthey the complex, pastmore be may lives Our expect. might you than appear surrounded simpler by invisible than technol- they do today, ogies controlling an unassuming collection of versatile, adaptable The coming devices. of wave forged laborers will literally sweep the to dishwasher cart old can your You chores. your do and floor factory the junkyard. TEACHING ROBOTS TO HEEL 48 wardsto beborn?” Bethlehem to- Slouches / last, at round come hour its beast, rough “And what Yeats, Butler William of words the In viruses. as ignore to hard as but miss to easy as be necessary—will as self-organizing magically and invisibility into shrinking distances, and speeds superhuman at communicating domains, electronic and physical both spanning distributed, broadly action, independent of capable systems, botic ro- above—flexible described trends consequences.The the predict, less much track, to suited ill are we and time, same the at idating consol- and proliferating are technologies evolving our adoxically, Pardangerous. as just be can see can’t we things to,the point can social pianoroll. aseamless into high-fives and friends, from tips notes, invitations, thank-you sharing, photo postcards, from everything combines Facebook umbrella. organizing single a under directories business libraries, newspapers, and replaces Google system. unified one into from bookstores to shoe stores by combining the common functions everything replaces Amazon environments. social and intellectual, commercial,trendsour areunfoldingin same the that see to harder much it’s But environment. and businesses, homes, our in niches fill to expand and mutate will labor physical perform that systems While our minds are organized to pay attention to things we things to attention pay to organized are minds our While 8 - 3. Robotic Pickpockets This page intentionally left blank omputers are improving and engineers have new ways to program them. Big deal. So what? You’ll care the first time you get mugged by a robot—and there’s a good chance you already have been without realizing it. In 1980, a Stanford graduate-student friend of mine named Dave Shaw was getting a bit anxious about his Ph.D. written exam. I told him that, in my experience, it was a good idea to study hard, but then take the final day off before the test to relax. So we went to see Raiders of the Lost Ark at the Palo Alto Square Theater.1 After acing his exams and completing his thesis, he accepted a position as an assistant professor of computer science at Columbia University. C When I visited him a few years later, he was working on a remarkable project: a new design for computers that could speed up processing by breaking down linear, sequential computations into smaller tasks that could be performed simultaneously by multiple processors, then combined into a unified answer.2 His goal for the project was to improve the processing of database queries. (This basic concept is known today as “MapReduce.”)3 By 1986, it became clear to Dave that the paltry scale of government research grants, the lifeblood of academics and researchers, would be insufficient to realize his vision. So he headed south, from Morningside Heights to Wall Street. The powers that be at

51 ROBOTIC PICKPOCKETS 52 times his professorial salary.professorial his times six at reportedly job a him offeredsaw. They they what now,liked and then both firm banking investment leading Stanley,a Morgan to to buy and sell stocks. By then, computers were common on Wall Street to computers use to initiative business secretive new a for nology among many other centers of excellence, were coming to the same the to excellence,coming were of centers other many among had ariverside seat. flowing through the world’s financial markets—and Morgan Stanley data of torrent the analyzing rapidly from came edge real the but advantage,an was guy next the truth.than Trading mentalquicker ticket. the puters was just com- superfast designing expertise Shaw’s time. of amount the same about in transactions thousand hundred one approximately complete can systems second.Today’s HFT a of one-tenth about in transactions of pair the complete probably could youstock, the sell to again button the press can you as quickly as then stock,a buy to trading).(high-frequency frequency?youhigh HowIf pressbutton a advantagestime. trades the right aslongyou the right at made decisive provided electronic the to world physical the from making decision the moving that realized soon Stanley Morgan human. a stocks, it became clear that a computer could trade much faster than to do.the prescient Morgan people at Stanley But knew better. programmed are they what do only can knew,everyonecomputers because,as do could people only that something was sell. That and tc tascin, u nt to not but transactions, stock process hs nih ws’ uiu. I eerhr bc a Stanford, at back researchers AI unique. wasn’t insight This funda- more a Dave’sto eyesopened Stanley Morgan Joining HFT as known is selling and buying programmatic Today, sell and buy to algorithms design developers could only Not 4 Morgan Stanley needed Shaw’s tech- Shaw’s needed Stanley Morgan hc sok t buy to stocks which pick ROBOTIC PICKPOCKETS 53 - - - un- 5 6 As everyone knows, the to way money make in knows, As the everyone stock mar Dave Dave soon became disenchanted with his new patrons. I can Because the actual techniques he (and others) employed are ket is to buy low and sell high (though not necessarily in that order). is ket not(though high sell and low buy to in necessarily thatorder). was what where places find to was in HFT business of first order The supposed to be a single price for some stock or commodity wasn’t. In a term that Dave would data recognize, in this form is called You experience normalized. You unnormalized data every day when you

tunes and grand mansions in the Hamptons. But let’s take a somewhat closer look. only speculate that their notion of what the computers should do was rooted in the way human traders made their decisions, while Dave had a better idea: let the mathematicians and computer scientists run wild applying statistical and AI techniques to anything that moved. Barely eighteen months after joining Morgan Stanley, he took the courageous step of leaving to start his own investment bank, D. E. Shaw and Company, ultimately earning the admiring Wall Street moniker King Quant. His bosses probably thought he nuts. was notoriously shrouded in this secrecy, is usually where the story dis- solves into smoke and mirrors, only to focus on newly minted for conclusion: conclusion: the action was in the data, everyone not involved realized the that programs. statistical And and machine learning techniques were currently the best tools available to pan for gold. While his former colleagues began scrounging around for whatever accidentally had Dave get on, could hands their they data real-world perched himself on top of the mother lode. As he was quoted in a “Finance is really a Fortune magazine wonder article a decade later, fully pure information-processing business.” information-processing fully pure ROBOTIC PICKPOCKETS 54 out. pay quick a resolution, impending collect its can youon bet and aly it isn’t, and often for sometimes just a fraction of a second. But If you the detect anom- formula. predictable simple, a through related principle, the current value of these two maturities should be closely In years. twenty in money your return will that one buy can you or you can buy a Treasury bill that will return your money in thirty years, instance,For purposes.different slightly for forms different slightly in packaged come detergent,securities laundry Like nuanced. more across worldwide markets, andyou’re seriousmoney.talking about converge.to prices the second,a times thousand hundredone this Do causes selling and buying of act normalize.fact,veryinevitably In the eye,an of blink beforea than prices less in cent a of fractionoff a pick can program HFT an So can. computers But fluctuations. transient the of advantage take to enough quickly react can’t they because the ing “spread”taking any risk. without price,higher the pocket at selling while price lower the at purchase simultaneously can program HFT an diverge, momentarily prices instant.When particular any at market which on much how selling be to happens who of vagaries the on based moment, to moment from around jitter values actual The case. the always isn’t this but same,the be to supposed exchange.are another prices on The than price different a at exchange one on sold or bought be can curity you looked, onepossible. the best hopefully everywhere item same the for price one only be freely,would there flowed information principle,if In price. lowest the for around shop But the opportunity to collect free money is much larger and larger much is money free collect to opportunity the But traders, human to matter don’t perturbations slight These se- same the when notice to is Now,HFT formof simplest the - -

ROBOTIC PICKPOCKETS 55

sentiment— The typical justification proffered for doing The alltypical thisjustification is proffered that HFT Add to this the fact that you don’t have to be right all the Now apply this to markets everywhere. Plenty of individual cell prepaid of number the that is examples favorite my of One truth. Yes, truth. they Yes, make the financial markets nice and but tidy, they obscure a deeper cost. They pollute the river of money by shifting risk to others, just as cheap detergents foul our waterways. What risk? That you aren’t going to get the best price when available you programs at investment banks scour the Internet for positive or neg- or positive for Internet the scour banks investment at programs ative comments about products and companies, then trade on the information. programs are providing a service to They society. are simply cleaning up inefficiencies in the markets. But this whitewashes a darker time, just more of the time than you are While wrong. any - individ ual transaction may entail some of level the risk, laws of probability you if your are trades tipped in in aggregate, favor, your ensure that, wins. The house always a profit. make to guaranteed are If there’s prices thatactually seem correlated. independent be to are a drought in Southeast Asia, the price of sugar may rise, affecting offset be might careful—this be But Sweden. in chocolate of cost the - Human trad in by beans a in drop South the America. price of cocoa ers endeavor to become expert in these but matters, no one comes close to the ability ofintellect a synthetic or subtle to broad observe patterns. phone cards purchased is an indicator of the size of certain crops in Africa, because the individual farmers, watching their crops aregrow, theare, optimistic they more The buyers. potential contact to preparing more they spend The in on latest this talk foray arena minutes. uses what’s called “sentiment analysis.” Yes, that kind of ROBOTIC PICKPOCKETS 56 s bd n ak pie requests. (price) ask and bid is, forinformation,forrequests amount tiny that a charge to be would money pocketing backinsteadof forthe entrepreneur? it serve the public interest if the robot simply handed some or all of the better cleaner. it be wouldn’t sidewalkswould enough,the But sure And clean.sidewalks the keep helps it that theory the on ployment de- permit to manager city the persuade might entrepreneur The up. it scarf silently would it noticing, without ground the on coin a dropped accidentally someone when and around, people followed that robot invisible an invented town your in entrepreneur siastic Why extendthis samecourtesy to securities? shouldn’t around. shopping than rather immediately purchase to buyers age encour to guarantees price” “low provide retailers Many business. tions. So anyone trades or that anything at a furious pace is good for transac- of volumes high on thrive they themselves, but exchanges the are problem this address to motivated be should that parties the Indeed, systems. these of operators and creators the to accrue benefits the all Instead, information. this of value the from benefit could each so elsewhere, had be to was price better a that sellers could be handled by public-interest systems that notified buyers and transaction. your of middle the into stepped someone because sell or buy to go it executes. If the typical trade only netted one cent, but each quote cent,each one netted but tradeonly typical executes.the it If trade each for requests quote of millions make might program HFT limited.computer-generated But requeststhat.have all An changed naturally was inquiries of number the so hand, by “quote”current A simple step to reduce the financial impact of HFT programsHFT of impact financial the reduce to step simple A enthu- an that imagine perspective, in programs HFT put To In principle, the market-smoothing functions of HFT programs 7 itrcly a esn euse a requested person a Historically, - ROBOTIC PICKPOCKETS 57 - trades for one second, second, one for trades all Meanwhile, a candy Meanwhile, bar at the 11 This would go a long way toward eliminating the 10 For human-generated transactions, this additional risk is 9 Government regulators love the clean, well-oiled markets that markets well-oiled clean, the love regulators Government A second approach would be to delay delay to be would approach second A 8 It’s It’s important to understand that the practitioners of this worst cutting abuses by the the HFTtail off opportunity. HFT programs tidy up. But they are oblivious, indeed deferential, to the immense transfer of wealth that results. A ride through the wealthy counties north of City New York tells Graceful es- the story. invest at partners by largely populated towns quaint surround tates is Shaw building Dave Indeed, ment banking firms and funds. hedge a thirty-eight-thousand-square-foot manse in Hastings-on-Hudson at an estimated cost of $75 million. cost one-thousandth of a cent, cost this one-thousandth would - ofbe propo a a money-losing cent, sition. - HFTtrans an of value expected the to relative But small. vanishingly action, it can loom large. A short artificial delay might also slow or stop the incredible arms race currently under way to reduce - trans action latency. whether human or This electronic. increases the individual - transac tion risk just a smidge, because you can’t be sure that transactions already queued ahead of you won’t slightly some that sure be can’t you change analogy, the (In executed. is the yours which price at other robot hasn’t already picked the coin up, leaving you empty- handed.) East Harlem checkout Target costs a fraction of a cent Who’s extra. or care? know to rarified art aren’t They villains. are simply applying their prodigious intellect and skills to the craft that our society has deemed most worthy of material Despite reward. the endless conga line of - genu ine Wall Street con artists and crooks whom ambitious public - pros ROBOTIC PICKPOCKETS 58 to acomputer near you. track.our regulatory the right frameworkthings back on canset stockholders.their terests of arguewill I As later, to changes modest in- the serve to bound duty are Rothschild’sthey discretion.Instead lack institutions financial important most our manage that boards and citizens.committees prominent The of largess and graces good vestors,to roilthe markets. soasnot in- other by received widely was news the Waterloountil at victory contrary to legend, held back after receiving early notice of the duke’s but, endeavors) public other many (among aggression Napoleonic of against Wellington’s Duke march the financed only not ously:he seri- very responsibility civic this took family, banking storied the dominatetoday’s markets missionintothat question. call of capital to its best and highest use. But the synthetic intellects that flow the allocating by commerce facilitate to but rich people some than anationaltreasure.nothing less name,his bears makehim that researchinstitute the folding at tein pro- on doing currently is he research hands-on pioneering the tion men- to contributions, not philanthropic profession. His any in find them.moreA diligent, thoughtful, to hardtalentedis individual and among foremost is Shaw Dave that you assure personally can can.I they best the investmentliving a bankersmaking people are decent of majority overwhelming the cameras, the before parade ecutors But there’s more trouble brewing in paradise, and it’scomingparadise, and in brewing troublethere’s more But today’sIn the interconnectedworld, affordon relycan’t to we of patriarch seventeenth-century Rothschild, Mayer Nathan make to not is exchanges stock the of purpose putative The 12 4. The Gods Are Angry This page intentionally left blank or a glimpse of the future, consider what happened the lazy afternoon of May 6, 2010. By that time, the percentage of securities trades initiated by HFT programs had ballooned to an astonishing 60 percent.1 For all practical purposes, machines, not people, populated markets. Your innocent E*Trade order for one hundred shares of Google was a mere snowflake in this perpetual blizzard, executed mainly as a courtesy to perpetuate the illusion that you can participate in the American dream. Starting at precisely 2:42 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Aver- age plunged in a matter of minutes, off more than a thousand points, or 9 percent, from its opening that day. Over $1 trillion in asset value had disappeared by 2:47. That’s real money—your and my savings, retirement accounts, and school endowments. The stunned traders Fon exchange floors around the world could hardly believe their eyes. It was as if God himself had taken a hammer to the market. Surely this was some sort of horrible mistake? It wasn’t. It was the result of legitimate HFT programs doing exactly what they were designed to do. It took the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) nearly six months to sort through the electronic wreckage and figure out what had transpired. While the commission’s conclusions are somewhat controversial, which itself is an interesting commen- tary on what happened, the problem started when a money manager at a large mutual fund company (reportedly Waddell & Reed of

61 THE GODS ARE ANGRY 62 in a highly diversified form known as the S&P as known form diversified highly a in stock of quantity sizable a sell to order an Overland,placed Kansas) eid ijcig as ifrain no hs iep Apes stock Apple’s pileup. this into information false injecting behind, unprecedentedthe to volume transactions, of systems fell reporting generousthe spreads that would evaporate.predictionsquickly Due algorithms’ proprietary their on furiously traded they run, the on the frantic buying and selling of their electronic counterparts as prey water.the Interpreting in blood opportunity,raresmelled a sensing run.bank aggressiveelectronicones, more The instant full-on a was It money. patron’s their protect to pace furious a at positions ing unwind- dutifully began fluctuations, some market unusual tecting off.world,went the over programs all De- incorporatedHFT intobly grew. and grew percentage that of denominator the price, any at sell to executedprogramsautomatically other built, and “stop-loss” orders precipitously.droppedwatching, prices nobody with momentum As and, moment particular that at security particular that for market order. the turned hisattentionThen he to othermatters. of execution smooth ensure to attempt an in minute, exceed to not rate a practical, as at soon as contracts seventy-five thousand sell to order routine otherwise but substantial a placed simply conventional.He the underlyingcompanies. the performance of on analy “fundamental called style investing an for known contrary,it’s the Quite artist. quick-buck a of antithesis the is Reed cally,& Waddell sis,” buying and selling stocks slowly and methodically based methodically and slowly stocks selling and buying sis,” But that’s only the start of the story.alarms,responsi- Safetythe of start the only that’s But the in buyers enough weren’t there that was problem The The hapless money un- to managerdo anything wasn’t trying percent of the trading volume over the past past the over volume trading the of percent 9 E-Mini. 500 2 Ironi - THE GODS ARE ANGRY 63

- In a moment as dramatic as a a single Hollywood cliffhanger, While the story may seem to have a happy ending, it does not. not. itdoes ending, happy a have to seem may story the While These electronic wars aren’t confinedto the financial sector. price price inexplicably soared to over $100,000 per share, while - Accen ture crashed to the bargain basement everything-must-go price of 1¢ back Meanwhile, per in share. Really. the real world, the sun was still shining and both companies were peaceably going about their usual. business as unassuming party saved the day with a simple The action. Chicago Mercantile Exchange, an out-of-town sideshow to the dominant market makers in New simply York, stopped all trading for a fleet ing five That’s seconds. right, a little longer than it will takeyou to read this sentence. A flash to you and me, but an eternityfor the rampaging programs brawling as ferociously as they could. That sufficientwas for time the marketsto afor take and breath the HFT programs to As reset. soon as the the mayhem ended, usual market to and returned near prices forces where quickly they had recovered started just a few short minutes The ago. life-threatening tornado just as it as suddenly and inexplicably had appeared. evaporated we in trust hard-earned institutions our the shepherd to Confidence savings is the bedrock of our Nofinancial blue-ribbonsystem. - presi It can this loss of faith. can restore release panel or SEC press dential and will happen and again, that threat hangs over our every spending and savings decision. Investors can no longer go to sleep secure in the knowledge that when they awake, their nest egg will be still intact and incubating. The sorry truth is that its fate is hands of the machines. in the a in landscape commercial partour of standard a becoming are They wide Butvariety of areas. you don’t have to worry about them spill- THE GODS ARE ANGRY 64 heavily armedwarriorsmost this electronic skirmish. in is,ad fact,an single in called the “impression.”) of one Rocketis Fuel auction for the right to make an impression on you. (Each display of a electronic flash a in engaging and advertisers,available the of one by influenced be can you that likelihood the estimating behavior, recent your about details of array astounding an gathering riously fu- Internet the around ricochet transactions of hundreds screen, your on appears actually page the and link a on click you time the menagerie of exotic synthetic intellects. In the second or so between a between fingers the of snap a in scenes the behind ensues battle intermediary, like Rocket Fuel.truth isfarthe more complex. But advertiser,an the through to possibly space the sells website the of youron computer.page web a load Youowner the that may assume intelligence and artificial company focused ondigital marketing.” Data a “Big as itself describes company done.The it’s how consider you until enough, Taylor.simple & Sounds Lord and Toshiba,Buick, like names household for ads display and websites on space buys rockets—it for fuel make not does companyresults.No, the the like certainly theydoes, he but what does he how idea no havevirtually customers own His business. company’s his discuss and me with meet to a break took officer, technology Torrance, chief Mark ing, offer secondary a from million $300 of infusion fresh a with Flush companynew Rocketcalled workshot who a friend a at visited Fuel. way. ing over into your home. They already have, though in a more benign e’ sat ih h gonwr. ut bu eey ie you time every about Just groundwork. the with start Let’s monumental ads,a contains that page web a load you When you when see you ads which decides who wonder You might Valley,Silicon I in afternoon winter cool unseasonably an On 3 -

THE GODS ARE ANGRY 65

- Early Early in the development of the Internet, someone made the You may be aware thatbe may aware a web page actuallynotlinks contains You pixels,” or millions of pixels, which is or used millions of to pixels, tout pixels,” the quality of dig- images.) ital camera observation clever that a picture on a web page could a contain single pixel, making it essentially invisible to you. Why display this if you can’t see it? That’s the whole point. You can’t see it, but that single pixel may come from anywhere, in particular from someone who would like to take note of when and from where you visited that particular page. Because the pixel comes from someone else’s they server, get the automatic right to make a notation, usually on These notations are tiny files thatgo by hard drive. your colorful the moniker You of can “cookies.” prevent this from happening with a setting of Butin course. your almost browser, nobody does because visit a website, click on a link, or type in a URL, the page that you load you that page the URL, a in type or link, a on click website, a visit notifies one or more parties other than the siteyou are visiting of your How arrival. this is done isn’t terribly important, but it does il- been of Internethave the roots how academic historical the lustrate purposes. commercial for repurposed see you but pictures pages the only also other files to display to that When pages are slow “frame.” within the boundaries of or the page, to load, you may notice these separate links flash usually by briefly, in a status line at the bottom of your browser They window. may come from the same website that you are visiting, but they often come from elsewhere on the Internet. Each picture has specific di- mensions, usually measured in pixels, short for “picture element.” A pixel is basically one dot in a with picture, a color and brightness. So the more pixels in an the image, more larger detailed and/or the picture may is. (You have encountered this term in the form “mega of THE GODS ARE ANGRY 66 to advertise to you in the future after you leave the site. And access site.And the leaveyouafter future the in you to advertise to visitors. But more often the website you are visiting wants to be able statisticsthe demographics about and personal characteristics of its useful of lots it give can data the collecting parties the formation: in- in paid is website the Sometimes it. from benefits it that reason simple the For back. your on notes sticky put friends its all letting computer.are usingaparticular that person’s name, face, or other identifying details except that you knowing without individual single a of picture detailed a construct are.detail: crucial youactually is,one who omits portrait can They it this as extensive as But eat.read, watch,and you from, what suffer may you ailments what travel, you whether whom, from and buy you live, what youlike, where don’t and like you habits—what your of profile comprehensive remarkably a construct can they result, a products,have pixels overall parties these place.put the because As buying and articles, reading links, on clicking websites, browsing theynote onyour evertell if they can backso seeyou again. this identifier the electronic as equivalentof gently sticking a Post-it inadvertently share it with one of their competitors. You can think of might you because you to information valuable such entrust never cookie.would the They depositing party the of server the on kept is information important number. The big a of form the in identifier snack. people. most to tasty likenothing Sounds a withholding is someone means cookies” third-party “block to option browser web obscure it makes it hard to use lots of common features of websites. Also, the Now, you might wonder why the website you are visiting is visiting are you website the why wonder might youNow, Internet, the around move you do,as they again you see And unique a but nothing Usually cookies? these in what’s So

THE GODS ARE ANGRY 67

movie Twilight - tril 90 percent of all personal computers Bel Ami, you may be likely to buy a - maga Cosmopolis and You You might wonder who the parties are that trail you around For instance, if you read vegetarian recipes online, you may be may you online, recipes vegetarian read if you instance, For Or, Or, most important, if you recently visited a web page for a ogy, you may ogy, be inclined to purchase its butsoundtrack, if you also watched to the third party’s vast trove of tracking data allows it to do just that just do to it allows data tracking of trove vast party’s third the to of course). price, a (for oth- Yahoo; and Google like names household are Some Internet. the ers are newcomers like Rocket which Fuel, estimates Mark Torrance has placed cookies on about in the United see To States. why these cookies are so valuable, you Sim- information. cross-referenced of power the understand to need ple facts, useless by themselves, can become very precious when these facts can be used to Together, assign you to combined. what’s called an “affinitygroup” that indicates preferences your or likelihood buy a particularto product. much more likely than person the to average be in interested trying chance The some- that neighborhood. your in studio outyoga new a one will random click on an ad for a may golf be vacation one in ten but thousand, if you are it male, may increase to one in a thousand, and if you’ve looked up who won the Masters it Tournament, may rise to one in a If hundred. you watch the entire zine featuring an interview with Robert Pattinson (who starred in all in starred (who Pattinson Robert with interview an featuring zine these movies). specificproduct butdidn’t say, buy it, a certain model of running shoes, you are far more likely to respond to an ad for that product if it The is problem is shown that once to in you you the near future. have left their website, the makers of those running shoes have no way to communicate with you again. So that’s where the parties THE GODS ARE ANGRY 68 apage,you visit next regardlessto be. page where happens of that form of valuable correlations and waiting to jump into the fray when the in gold for it panning information, of river this through sifting perpetually are task.They the to equal are storage data and power computing enormous to access with systems learning machine But basis. continuing a on data of amount large staggeringly a analyze and collect ex must they far well, this complexity do Tocapabilities. monumental human ceeding of task a is date to up analysis aspecificadinfrontof to put you when you loadapage. advertisers. So they know how much the advertiser can afford to pay statistically speaking, how much youjust tothose areeach of worth know,they And represent.they that advertisers the of one from ad particular a to respond to are you likely how predict to models cal today. advertising This, called “retargeting,” is one of the most valuable forms of online interest. your of you reminding ad an you show can and week, last tion, they recognize you as the same person who looked at the shoes somewhere else, for instance, on a website to make a dinner reserva- depositing the cookies on your computer come in. When you turn up f oen wo ipy at t oeae i o hr w website own her or his operate to wants simply who someone of day.times of different at browsers different with pages different of parts ferent dif on ads different you showing for valuesdifferent predicts each and advertisers, of collection differing a represents them of Each thing. same the doing are computer your on cookies have that ties The problem is that the synthetic intellects of all the other par this Keeping in. come intellects synthetic where that’s And mathemati- elaborate built have Fuel Rocket like Companies Now let’s turn this around and look at it from the perspective the from it at look and around this let’sturn Now - - - THE GODS ARE ANGRY 69

When you load a page, and it this a load When calls specifica you for of size page, ad, Now things get complicated. The intermediaries might also and make money by selling advertising. Selling ad space to individual each advertiser is entirely impractical, except for a handful of the largest and most successful websites. Even selling the space to intermediaries (like Rocket Fuel) that represent multiple advertisers would be a nightmare. So elaborate electronic ad exchanges have sprung up to perform an actual price auction for each ad that qui- simply websites of operators The load. you pages the on appears etly The exchange. ad the to space ad of inventory available their consign and begin. the games also sign up, intermediaries information is transmitted to the ad exchange. It is immediately put out for bid to who the look intermediaries, to see if they have a evaluation elaborate an perform they so, If computer. your on cookie taking opportunity, that for pay to want much how they estimate to into account every time they have ever seen you, where you have and what done been, have you in They also consider the which past. website you are currently visiting, what content is on the page you advertis- with the business do to are you likely how and viewing, are in their portfolio. ers available purchase information about you from other companies that aren’t in the advertising placement business but have agreed cookies to with them share for a fee. Even at the lightning speed of the In- it ternet, isn’t practical to perform multiple auction So rounds. each bestsingle a makes and selectsbidder particulara roster its from ad offer. It also message it tells plansthe which ad advertiser’s exchange offer. any just want don’t ads servingthe websites the because display, to thing to appear on their pages. (For a instance, site catering to children may refuse ads for certain products targeted such to as adults, THE GODS ARE ANGRY 70 attribution.”) called is “viewthrough behaviordelayed future. (This the in website advertiser’s that visiting independently be might immediately,it or ad the on clicking be might action you. That showed they ad an to provide intermediariesrelatesthe feedbackthat youwhen taketo to action an advertisers the for exists system parallel entirely and advertiser? the to sophisticatedequally an that answerThe worth is tion: how do the bidders know what showing a particular ad is really they couldthan themselves. possiblybe their adbudget spending at is Fuel Rocket better much how remark website Fuel Rocket the ter done by synthetic intellects. Numerous customer testimonials on endeavor,human bet uniquely is a as regard reasonably might you something persuasion, of art the that irony the me to out pointed the leukemiatoo? about right cat?a got Yikes, you that just out,they that figured they’re if if what your tocat help fight feline leukemia. Amazing—how did they know you.page areloading the on .appears . offering forvitamins special seamlessly ad an moon, the on man first the put to used was than best, bid). highest second-highest bidder (which encouragesto their place participants the of price the only it charges but bidder highest the to portunity op- competitors.the Finally,awardsexchangetheir ad from the ads show to refuse sites all nearly But sweets.) for ads show to want not may informationsite diabetes a such.forOr prospect good a be may page the viewing person the though evencasinos, promoting Toward the end of my visit, Mark Torrance demonstrated the TorrancedemonstratedMark visit, my of end Towardthe ques- important one over glossed I’ve that notice may You conversation,recentFuel’s RocketJohn,CEO,a George During power computing more expending probably quite after So, - THE GODS ARE ANGRY 71 - - - even even without The actual figure, figure, actual The 11.345 percent of them 9.125 and The various participants The in various exactly this aren’t process arduous With so much energy invested in this process, you might ex pect that these ads would be quite precious, but the opposite is true. true. is opposite but the precious, quite be would ads pectthese that Despite the effort Herculean intellects these putsynthetic each into ex ad these of one through ad an serve to right the battle, every and changes might sell for as little as or $0.00005, five ten-thousandths this is a five-cent CPM—cost (In advertising terminology, of a penny. per thousand.) But, as the saying goes, they make it up on volume. would would order a pizza from his client within two weeks, all. at pizza ate ever they whether knowing client his as later reported back to him by the client, was 10.9 percent. was reported back as later him by to client, the and so all sorts For of friends, shenanigans and game ensue. playing instance, because the winning bidder in any auction knows what it price can a infer lotbid, the runner-up about who else is out there gunning for the same inventory and what those other parties are willing to So pay. the bidding parties engage in complex strategies to outwit the other participants, like professional sizing each poker other up players by intentionally losing hands. And the ad ex changes’ synthetic intellects, which manage all the bidding, hardly behave as angels. They study each bidder’s strategies and increase their own profitsby cherry-picking opportunities or pitting similar bidders against other each run up to the price. remarkable remarkable precision with which his computers can predict and in- fluenceyour behaviorby showingme how he estimates the- likeli hood that you will buy a pizza from one of his clients (a major international fast-food pizza franchise) within two weeks after you see one of Selecting their a ads. green cell colored an off elaborately chart called a “heat map,” I could see that for a carefully selected group of consumers, between THE GODS ARE ANGRY 72 The human may have in mind that the robot will study the games the study will robot the that mind in have may human The immense player.chess its successful world’s most the becoming toward abilities apply to it instructs and assistant personal robotic general-purpose of model latest the buys someone which in ture fu- a imagine instance, dramatically.For grows danger the omous, change. to light the for waiting while ramp curb the using from wheelchair beforestorm,big a forleavinganyonenone else; a blocking perhaps shelf Depot Home a on batteries the all buying for;waiting tiently ispa- else someone that place aparking Stealing repugnant. find would society that ways in behaving to prone are context,they cial so- broader the to humans,oblivious of domain exclusive the ously they possible. the maximumprofit to possiblycan inorder extract most the charge will they Similarly, want. they what get to must they minimum bare the than more anything pay to other,or each combatants these in new electronic coliseumsto show any mercyto side effects. As I will explain in later chapters, there’s no incentive for any for concern or of awareness without goals, singular achieve to Can’t play synthetic intellects just nice, like civilized decent people? behavior? our consumer influence or systems financial our to game opportunity the over other each fighting programs computer gence Stanford. at intelli- artificial studied John George CEO and TorranceMark both suspect, might you As billion. $2 approximately worth is company Three friends founded Rocket Fuel in But as these systems become ever more capable and auton- and capable more ever become systems these as But previ - areas on encroach increasingly intellects synthetic As The answer is surprisingly simple. These systems are designed So what’s the root cause of all this electronic pandemonium— 2008 and, as of this writing, the THE GODS ARE ANGRY 73

- - before 5 4 masters, masters, practice against other players, and enter various And what, if And anything, what, should we do about the potential dan- I’ll start with this latter We frequently issue. rely on a hidden gers posed by synthetic The intellects? answer We is more nuanced. need to control when and where synthetic intellects (or any electronic agent, for that matter) are permitted to act on our This behalf. need is particularly acute when they commingle with human agents. assumption of a playing level fieldto resources allocate in areason- When able Ticketmaster firstway. went online, it greatly increased the convenience of getting a ticket to a concert. (I’m old to enough remember having to drive to the nearest Records Tower for this high-tech termi- specialized its located Ticketmaster where purpose, I’m nals. old Actually, enough to remember the bad old days of grand competitions. competitions. But without guidance, the robot may instead - formu late more reliable strategies, such as threatening the families ofcredible competitors in the hope of throwing them off their game, sabotaging planes carrying better players to the or contests, other wise incapacitating anyone who might interfere with its ability to meet its assigned goal. when you Ticketmaster, simply went to the concert to stand in line and took your chances.) But soon after Ticketmaster was available on the scalpers Internet, began using programs to scarf up online - con regulatory a Lacking available. became certmoment they the tickets framework to address the problem, Ticketmaster has attempted technological suchfixes, asrequiring you to interpret those annoy ing because little to brain little twisters effect, known as CAPTCHAs, the scalpers simply employ armies of live humans, mostly in third them. decode to countries, world THE GODS ARE ANGRY 74 your humanadministrative assistant? send to you for would it as robot the send to much as me costs it if consider it fair to those without a robotic driver or car to spare? What to myself it doing to equivalent sufficiently cost that judge we Will itself.repark to self-drivingcar my ticket,instruct parking or avoida instance, suppose I send my robot to move my Forcar clear.every two hours to is concept the but basis, case-by-case a on answered be to needs question resource?This the pay,access they to cost the or ability,their differin participants the lines.Do to just humans—not with compete agents electronic where circumstance any about just it’sto buyorsellvotes, illegal orkidneys, civilized countries. inmost economicallyresourcesbe fungible.to wantdon’twe It’s reasonthe some are there point: the misses that but fortunate, less the than wealthy the from price higher a extracts Some line in waiting attend. that argue to chance their of out citizens ordinary squeezing hearings,congressional at them for line in stand to people pay ists lobby when wrong seems somehow it why That’s time. personal own her or his waiting,spending of cost the incur forcetoeveryone havethe bottle. genie backin that time putting ahard would we think I though problematic,is humans alongside curities computerplayers.chess It’s whyprogramstradealso allowing tose- and human for tournaments separate are there why That’s ness. fair of sense intuitive our violates circumstances, it most agents. In human with resources for compete to agents electronic permit we when arises issue The it. do to else someone pay to or friend a of behalf on ticket a buy to you for It’sticket.fine a purchase to agent hs ae rnil, prpitl gnrlzd cn pl to apply can generalized, appropriately principle, same This they because equalizers cultural great are queues and Lines an use you whether with do to nothing has hereproblem The - - THE GODS ARE ANGRY 75 - - - syn of use the with problems subtle more much are But there I contend that the brawl for the right to display an ad to you Once again, our biological baggage works against our inter ests. It’s easy to physically see if the boss’s robot is moving his or her or his robot moving is if see easy boss’s the physically to It’s ests. It’s a car. lot harder to tell if someone has written a clever program to reserve an entire row of camping spots at Yellowstone Park the weekend you want to go the moment the sites are released to the public—while you’re still loading the web page. We need to incor porate these concepts into our public discussion so we can extend our sense of fairness into the electronic domain. Right it’s now, an untamed territory shrouded in perpetual darkness that invites all manner of skullduggery. as agents. thetic intellects seems a lot fairer than having HFT programs participate in the securities markets. That’s because, in the case of ads, humans don’t typically participate in the placements (though they did in the early equal footing. a more bidder is on every so of Internet), the days This page intentionally left blank 5. Officer, Arrest That Robot This page intentionally left blank uring the Middle Ages, animals could be tried for criminal of- fenses. There are documented stories of cases brought against chickens, rats, field mice, bees, gnats, and pigs.1 Back then, people apparently thought animals capable of knowing right from wrong and behaving accordingly, in a way that we don’t today. They believed that animals had what’s called moral agency. A widely accepted characterization of moral agents is that they must be capable of two things. They must be able to perceive the morally pertinent consequences of their actions, and they must be able to choose between the relevant courses of action. D Curiously, neither of these two requirements relies on any subjective, innate sense of right or wrong. It simply says that agents have to be able to control their own actions and evaluate the effects of their actions against some putative moral standard. Whether that standard is self-generated, whether they understand the theory underlying that standard, whether they agree with it or not, whether they can “feel” the difference between righteousness and sin—all that is irrelevant. Consider the predicament of the psychopath. He or she has little or no ability to feel empathy or remorse for his or her actions. However, many if not most psychopaths are quite intelligent, cer-

79 OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 80 percent of the U.S.the of psychopaths.percentarepopulation 1 over that questions.estimatePsychologistsmoral to reaction tional their own behavior accordingly—they don’t just experience an emo- tainly capable of both understanding moral concepts and controlling agency ishardly confined to humans. moral of interpretation modern the but laughable, crimes commit us. of the rest alongwith upandget to suckit somehow manage most and behave, to supposed are they how understand they but is, deal big the what wonder privately may willy-nilly.Psychopaths of a hundredsee one out people running around committing crimes quirements for moral responsibility aswell? re- the meet it Can intellect? synthetic a about How crimes. with corporationsand moralbe can agents, thereforeand chargedbe can avoid incidents likethis one. to place in controls sufficient put to duty a employees,had its from distinct itself,as corporation so. The do to failed it case, this in but pable of doing the right things to ensure the accident didn’t happen, liable.criminally ca- is,be and That better know to was supposed BP held be can and agency moral have to considered is corporation a system, legal our agency.moralIn have to sentient or conscious be $4 billion. That’s largetop of on civilpenaltiesandfines. oil company that owned the rig. The company settled the charges for filed ernment large quantities of oil fouled the water and beaches. The federal gov and killed, were workers Eleven blowout. underwater an suffered In can animals that notion medieval the find may we Today So modern legal theory accepts the notion that both people both that notion the accepts theory legal modern So illustrates BP you that to against case criminal The don’t need , the oil rig Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico of Gulf the in Horizon Deepwater rig oil the 2010, —in addition to civil—charges against BP, civil—chargesagainst to addition criminal—in the 2 And yet,And don’t we - OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 81

- Yes, it Yes, can. If it is sufficientlycapable of sensing the morally This problem is far from theoretical. An active intellectual Okay, so we’ll grit our teeth and program in a moral code. Even if we could reach some consensus on this difficult ques- relevant aspects of its environment, and it has a choice of actions, it qualifies as a moral agent. Thesesystems don’t have to bevery sophisticated to cross this seemingly anthropological boundary. A robotic lawnmower may be able to see that it’s about to run over a child’s leg, as opposed to a stick, and it may be capable of select ing whether is of The how to course, question, it stop or is continue. in butproceed case should one in it stop should “know” supposed to Without the some other. sort of guidance, we wouldn’t expect it, a decision. a good make to priori, debate is quietly taking place sub rosa regarding how to program - sce challenging ethically construct to easy It’s vehicles. autonomous matter no virtuallyoccur, certain to are that products such for narios how car much self-driving can we run trya over Your to them. avoid dog pretty to clear your save whatlife: you would want it But to do. what if it has to choose between running over an elderly couple or a bunch of kids crossing the street? How about Choice a ofSophie’s which of your own children to kill, the one in the front seat or the one in the back? We can ignore such questions because they are so but act. be an immoral that would itself painful consider, to Despite simple. notthat it’s but problem, engineering an like Sounds considerable attention to this topic, there’s no accepted consensus among experts as to what such a moral code might look like. Over the centuries, philosophers have developed a rich panoply of ethical theories, and arguments over which is best—or even viable— to unabated this day. that continue OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 82 ticular individual was negligent or engaged in criminal activity.criminal in engaged or wasnegligent the individual ticular On par any that mean doesn’t that but Horizon,Deepwater the on died people Eleven acts. criminal committing employees its to opposed as let’s case. the BP returnto this,“agents.” explore their To and “principals”between lationship re- the behind theory legal the understand to useful it’sthis, swer decision.bad a makesTo it when responsiblean- is who of question a curriculum to teach engineers the practice of moral programming. unavailablemachines.to short, In we’re waylong a from developing on it others.to inflict to ethical behavior This shortcut is presumably tively reason that if something us,hurts it’s probably right fornot us instinc- compassion—we and sympathy feel to ability human our in rooted be to seems sense moral own our of some least at that is field nascent this dogging cases.challenge known One similar) fully (hope- of catalog a to them relating by challenges moral resolving them.include approaches Other “case-basedreasoning,” essentially, moralacceptable plement principles, articulate to able be less much im- and acquire to guaranteed from far are humans,machines Like drawback.significant a has approach this relevantexamples. But of collection large a with presented algorithms learning machine on relying strategy, “bottom-up” a pursue Others ethics). normative (duty-based principles those respect to attempt that systems build priori,then a principles moral implement and approach. select They a“top-down” using tried have agents,” moral “artificial create to searchers in the emerging fieldof computational ethics, which seeks re - programmatically. Some implemented be and easily practice to could reduced result the that believe to reason no there’s tion, You might wonder how a corporation can commit a criminal act, the is agency moral machine of issue the from aside Quite - 3

OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 83 - com corporation the which by means means by which you walk into the bank. Your legs, of An agent is an independent party who is authorized, by mu- When acting on your behalf, your agent has what’s called But what if an agent commits a crime and doesn’t know he The employees were the were employees The mitted the crime. By the same theory, when you hold up a bank, your your bank, a up hold you when theory, same the By crime. the mitted legs are the aren’t course, criminally liable. But a there’s big between difference a means of getting something like your legs done, carrying you into the bank, and the managers on the Deepwater Horizon failing to detect or correct a potentially dangerous situation. The managers are considered to of “agents” be the and corporation, so potentially shoulder some of the liability. tual agreement, to act on behalf of a principal. Now your legs are knowingly to position a in they are nor party independent an neither enter into a mutual agreement to act on your On behalf. the other knowingly can who party independent an is BP of employee an hand, behalf. act on BP’s a fiduciaryresponsibility to carry outyour intent and protectyour interests—but only within certain limits. For if instance, your agent knowingly commits a crime on that your behalf, doesn’t get him or her off the hook. If I hire you to kill my romantic you rival, share - re understand to presumed are you because murder the for sponsibility partthe law. break to are that you of a conspiracy or she is doing it? I “Here, press say, this button,” you and comply, a bomb goes off at the Super acted You Bowl. as my butagent, you - conse the known have should reasonably you if only responsible are quences. contrary, every contrary, employee may simply have carried out his or her as- people. of and none eleven kill to were those duties duties, signed OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 84 bucks. (This isn’t entirely science fiction. A prototype of just such a such just of prototype A fiction. science entirely isn’t (This bucks. street,caramelpurchasing a and flan Frappuccino for from Star you the crossing apartment, Village Greenwich tenth-floor your from down elevator the taking of capable is that robot home personal a the future, for good reasons. in change to fair,entirelyit’slikely isn’t and this But right. probably you,that’stodayis answerobvious and the Youbehalf? think might your on acts intellect synthetic a when responsible is Who chine? ma- intelligent an about How crimes. with charged be pendently inde- can and agents, and principals be can corporations and ple principal withsufficiently broad responsibilities. a as itself, BP indicted it So did. aggregate in taken acts these but employeesindividual the themselves didn’t constitute criminalacts, their relative responsibility isunclear. or,moreaccurately, when parties the between liability apportioning ing who is responsible for what in a principal-agency a in what for responsible is who ing legally responsible eventhey were if unaware it.) of held be also can they crime, the from benefited party innocent edly suppos- the if because bit, a oversimplifying (I’mno. is answer the circumstances, responsibleformost theft?yourbag.I Under the Am me give and returnYou bag. paper a into bills unmarked in money the put to orderingnote her a or teller him the hand and gun a with bank.fromthe $100 me youtell togo get I Youbank the to go down crime in the service of a the principal principal’swithout knowledge. osdr h floig cnro Iaie ht o purchase you that Imagine scenario. following the Consider peo- both that notion the accepts theory legal modern So of actions the that concluded government the case, BP the In There’s a long history of legal principles and precedents address- a commits agent the Suppose around. this turn let’s Now relationship— -

OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 85 - In addition to being 4 On the way to fetch your your coffee, robot witnesses a man When the the man police explains arrive, that he and his wife Your defense attorney’s argument is simple: you didn’t do it, But that company also has lawyers, and they successfully robot was recently demonstrated at Stanford.) preprogrammed preprogrammed with a variety of general behavioral principles, the robot is able to hone its navigational and social skills by watching - prac and customs all, After itencounters. people the of behavior the hands shake to appropriate be might It place. to place from vary tices unless Iran butin it forbidden is York, meet New in you females with Unbeknownst your robot witnessed recently to you are related. you, a a rare event, Good Samaritan subduing a purse snatcher until the of and a earning admiration burgeoning the approval police arrived, of spectators. crowd grappling with a woman, then taking her purse, over her apparent Itobjections. infers that a crime is taking place consistent with and, its general programming and its specificexperience, it wrestles the man and detains him while calling 911. to the ground were merely having an animated tussle over the car keys to deter mine who was going to drive. His wife confirms robot, thehapless but well-intentioned your to attention their turn story. They Oops! which dutifully explains that it was merely acting on your instructions to fetch a drink. Incensed, the two insist that the police arrest assault. for you the robot purchased You did. the robot in good-faith reliance on its so purpose, intended its with accordance itin using were and design the company that sold you the robot should be held responsible for the incident. argue that they have met all reasonable standards of product lia- OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 86 and then haveand to retrain it, beatsto prisonfor going it assault. but You are that unhappy you temporarilywill the lose use of your robot year. next the for servantfree, have a obedient to happy be will and centuries.eighteenthseventeenth and the of called) were they (as Codes” “Slave antebellum the in one finds He suddenlyappears. that a sinkhole unpredictable freakdifferentno accident from vehicleautonomous an intodriving though regrettable a simply was this perspective, their kind. From its of event first the is this use, of hours of millions in that out point care.They and diligence due with acted and bility to punishment. them ble fortheir crimesandsubjected slaves,the codesthese inevitablyheld owners,the not culpa- legally not everyone at that time agreed with this assessment. this agreedwith time that everyone at not that noting others, worth it’sall as rights human basic same the of southern plantation slaves were conscious human beings, deserving that today believe certainly we While owners. their from ticularly par protections, and rights limited having property as slaves ized character codes these part, most the For slaves. of responsibilities and status, legal treatment, the govern to laws of body very unequal) (and separate a maintained jurisdictions and states various party’s custody fortwelve aperiodof months. injured the to consigned be will robot the crime, the for reparation as and, experience, purse-snatching its expunge to erased, be will robot’s memory the that is case this in punishment appropriate the that decides He robot. your decisions—and independent own her or his making of capable also is but “property”legal is slave—who The victim of the crime feels this is an acceptable resolution acceptable an is this feels crime the of victim The precedents.for looks judge gap,the liability this at Perplexed The judge in this case sees a parallel between the status of a of status the between parallel a sees case this in judge The 5 7 Prior to the Civil War,the to Prior 6 Regardless, - -

OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 87 - - 8 The key here is that humans, corporations, and synthetic in- And thus begins a new trail of precedents and body of and body law. And of precedents a new thus begins trail To recap, there’s no requirement in our laws that a moral There’s only There’s one If problem. you accept that a synthetic - intel For guidance, consider how corporations are treated. Ob viously, viously, you can’t punish a corporation the same way human. you You can’t can sentence a a corporation to ten years in prison or take away its right to vote. In the words of you “Did Edward Thurlow, century, nineteenth lord the of turn the at England of chancellor ever expect a corporation to have a when conscience, it has no soul and no body be kicked?” to be damned, to tellects all have one thing in common: a purpose or goal. (At least agent be human or conscious, as the BP Deepwater Horizon case The entity relevant must merely demonstrates. be capable of - recog actinde- to able be and actions its of consequences moral the nizing pendently. Recall that synthetic intellects are commonly equipped with machine learning programs that develop unique internal - rep pile this use I set. training the in examples the on based resentations of jargon to avoid the danger inherent in using anthropomorphic language, but only because we don’t yet have the common words I would simply Otherwise, to describe other any these way. concepts say that synthetic intellects think and act based on their own ex perience, perience, which in this case your robot clearly did. It just happened to be wrong. It may have been acting as your legal butagent, since you didn’t know what it was doing, even as its principal you aren’t responsible—it is. judge The it? discipline you do earth on how crime, a commit can lect compensated and owner robot’s the punished effectively case this in but did he mete out justice the victim, to the robot? OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 88 clusions, case. theassault didin asourfictional robot from its own unique experiences and draw its own idiosyncratic con- person.same the areEachmaytwins not identical learn that reason same the equivalent,for be not need intellects synthetic of stances mistakes. for account to held itself of instances other of examples seeing as simple as be may This obstacles. encounters it when objectives its ally programmed to pursue its goals, will alter its behavior to achieve intellect,rationsynthetic- rehabilitation.A and system—deterrence might on a human, but it does serve purposes important of our it legal as impact emotional an have not may This goals. its achieve to ability its with interfering requires intellect synthetic a Punishing thecriminal. fit should punishment the crime, the fit punishment the should only Not consequences. same the suffer should trators is,(that down). closeit life of it deprive can we extreme, the In litigation. antitrust in case or make its actions to subject external oversight, as is sometimes the markets, from it excludecontracts, void also can behavior.We bad to deterrent significant a is this time, the of most least money, at make to is corporation a of goal the Because fines. levy we Instead, to pursuehappiness(athe ability restraining order, for instance). or (incarceration), liberty punishment), (capital life of perpetrator the deprive may We goals. those to relate out mete we ishments competitor.romanticpun- a eliminatethe (paradoxically), to And or prison of out stay to gain, material for as reasons,such of variety a for crime a commit may human A crime.) the of context the within oe ht i cnrs t ms ms-rdcd riat, in- artifacts, mass-produced most to contrast in that, Note perpe- all not that concept the accepted already we’ve So away.them lock don’t crimes,we commit corporations When OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 89 - For For a more contemporary example, consider a credit card substan- have It could not. but it’s innocuous, sound may That - syn a with interfere to way only notthe is amnesia forced But likely that - com or the insurance government it’s instance, For So synthetic intellects will be accorded rights in (for example, computer computer programs that operate medical which equipment, fall fraud detection program that uses machine learning algorithms. It the taking by laws antidiscrimination of afoul run inadvertently may race of the cardholder into account, or it may have independently discovered some other variable that is closely correlated with race. the digital Unscrambling omelet in which this knowledge is embed- ded may be entirely impractical, so the penalty might be to delete database. the entire tial economic consequences for the bank or owner of that program, which has relied on billions of real-time transactions collected over many years to fine-tuneits performance. You can bet this outcome. avoid fightto would hard owner the thetic intellect’s goals. It may be possible to revoke its authority to act. In fact, the licensing of synthetic intellects to permit their use and holding them responsible for their own behavior go hand in hand. panies will review and approve each model of autonomous - vehi cle, pretty much as they do for all vehicles now. The same is true for revoke may we future, the In devices. medical of definition the under authority by recalling the medallion of an autonomous requir taxi, ing a legal program to retake the bar or exam, deleting the account program. trading an automated from credentials the form of licenses) and will have responsibilities (for example, to refrain from damaging the property of others), just like other - enti OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 90 h jde huh ti snec bte ta akn te we to owner the asking than better sentence this thought judge the presumably and fine, a pay to robot the order to way no was There had. it asset only the was labor own its because precisely servitude of year a to robot the condemned effectively judge the example, assault robotic the person’s In owners. artificial the of independent fines or seizure to subject be can assets such because assets own to those contracts.tities boundby make anonline purchase. It’stheir owners arethe legal en- that just to entersystems into contractstradethey when stocks, or when you assets.own Arguably,and tracts computer-based permit already we evolve overtime. will responsibilities and rightsearlier. attendant described The case assault robotic the likeprecedents of patchwork a of sense make to be can intellects synthetic that ple princi- the establish likely will courts that strong so are intellects responsibilities, forthis ispersonhood. the legal shorthand and and rights selected have corporations that means merely It mans. pretend it means, that judges foolishly equate corporations with hu- comedians the what mean doesn’t this course,Constitution. Of the are entitled to the free-speech protection of the First Amendment to corporations that affirmed Court U.S.Supreme the which in (2010), of aftermath the in established legal principle that corporations are people, for instance, this iscalledpersonhood. for framework legal choices.The make and act,sense, can that ties There will also be strong pressure to permit artificial persons artificial permit to pressure strong be also will There con - into enter to right the are these of important most The synthetic and corporations between parallels functional The well- the of fun making in delight comedians Late-night iies ntd . eea Eeto Commission Election Federal v. United Citizens in an attempt attempt an in persons artificial 9 OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 91 - - contrac granting favor also will intellects synthetic of Owners Unlike most predictions, this isn’t fanciful speculation about Which leads us back to the essential problem with intelligent pay. But if the robot pay. had its own it burgeoning bank would account, tempting be a very target. tual and property rights to artificialpersons because this will have the side effect of insulating their own assets today. a corporation forming for from most motivation common liability—the one possible future among many. On the it contrary, will be hard to because prevent, the effect can be simulated today by wrapping law your as just corporation, legal own its in intellect synthetic each yer yer or doctor might be or a “professional corporation” LLC. If I were the of owner a and Ifleetoperator would seri- of autonomous taxis, legal own its of asset an as vehicle each incorporating consider ously catastrophic single a want wouldn’t I reason; this precisely for entity mistake to bankrupt my entire enterprise. Other than that, I would minions my roving leave to mint money as squirrel best they could, a beehive. from collectfor me honey to like profits their ing away They will machines ruthlessly as pursue agents. the goals we assign them, outcompeting humans, and may be under our control only nominally—at least until we develop the ethical and legal - frame work for integrating them as productive partners into human soci- our increase and prosperity, our enhance lives, our enrich they As ety. leisure, the irresistible and undeniable benefits of all this technology will obscure a disquieting truth: synthetic intellects and forged laborers will be running around as independentperforming agents, work and making money on behalf of their without owners, regard to the consequences to others or as to in society Instead, in general. the case of they are likely to the be HFT skimming off programs, the OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT 92 few lucky individuals. a of benefit the forcreate they wealth enormous the lion’s of share waitingthe Amazon oncheckout 1in cloud! affects you—there’s this no how of example an find to farvery look elsewhere. up to have pile don’t quietly You profits the read—while and watch, to, listen purchase, we what to us guide then havior, be- group and individual our observe systems omniscient human As you might expect, this scenario has already started. Super started.already has scenario expect,this might you As 6. America, Land of the Free Shipping This page intentionally left blank first met Jeff Bezos at a 1996 retreat for CEOs of the venture capital firm of Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield and Byers. This may sound like a Davos- or Bohemian Club–style conclave of mov- ers and shakers, but nothing could be farther from the truth. Most of the thirty or so attendees were relative newcomers to the Silicon Valley scene. Jeff was one of the first to realize that the opening of the Internet to commercial use might create significant business opportunities. Prior to that, it was restricted to government and research institutions for official business, and access was controlled by the Defense Advanced Projects Agency (DARPA). With a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and computer science, and a series of technical jobs on Wall Street under his belt, Jeff had landed a position with a secretive but highly successful investment firm founded by an affable Columbia professor ten years his senior—Dave Shaw. Yes, the same Dave Shaw who pioneered Iprogrammed trading, founded D. E. Shaw and Company, and earned the Wall Street nickname King Quant. But one day, for reasons only he and Dave know, Jeff quit to seek his fortunes elsewhere. He and his new wife piled their possessions in their car and took off for Se- attle. During the ride, he worked on a business plan while, I must assume, his wife drove. Jeff was a high-energy, first-time entrepreneur with a bois- terous laugh and a quirky smile. It seemed to me, as a fellow CEO of an early Internet startup, that Jeff exhibited an astounding lack of caution. I was always amazed that he would make multimillion-Â dollar business commitments with complete confidence that, when

95 AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 96 nomto poie by provided information to applied be could transactions securities to applied Company and wasn’tthe inventory, in the data. was in it son from Dave that I Shaw had missed, at first: at least first auction site on the Internet. the on site auction first Onsale.com, started the I partners two prices.fixed with along at So the company wasn’tI suspect it. very happy about that Ingram would drop-ship orders as small as a single book, though delivery.quick a advantage,needed Jeff’sperspective, The wasfrom a as served also wholesaler the country,and the around bookstores ent independ- to quantities small in books shipped In- and stocked Group. gram Book Ingram time, the at wholesaler largest the with deal a made he thing: best next the did inventory,Jeff and houses to be? claimed they who were they know you couldcustomers, yourhow to talk or see didn’t you of.If heard never had they network computer public would process credit card transactions transmitted over some sort of take payments over the as,Internet time,the at no respectable bank no way to buy or sell books. We were both trying to figure out how to warrant the attention of book publishers, not to mention that he had to small too was Amazon that problem minor the with struggling was met,he we recall,when I Amazon.As of name odd the gave he bookstore,online an which start to alwayswasright.wasJeff’s idea the time came, he would be able to raise the money required. And he that that he was dealing with physical products was incidental, or at least resource for major chains if they ran short of stock locally and locally stock of short ran they if chains major for resource Jeff recognized that the same basic principles that D.Shaw E. that principles basic same the that recognizedJeff My startup idea was that goods didn’t have to be sold online sold be to have didn’t goods that was idea startup My ware- in invest to connections the and capital the Lacking people. 1 For him, at least initially, the fact fact the initially, least at him, For But Jeff learned an important les- important an Jefflearned But the real value AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 97 - When we describe Amazon as an “online retailer,” we think of When retailer,” we “online describe Amazon as an it to transmitting by order your processing was Amazon When Stating Stating the obvious, Amazon has not only revolutionized vir tually all aspects of the book industry—with the possible exception - larg of one of the writing—it world’s the become to has also grown est sellers of just about everything. But another there’s way to look rise. remarkable at Amazon’s way an alternative But itthere’s as a digital analog store. of a physical and Shaw E. D. of expansion and application an as Amazon: describe to securities-trading strategies to the buying Company’s and selling of goods. retail it engaging was in the same sort delivery, for Ingram of as arbitrage Dave Shaw’s supercomputers: two simultaneous transactions that were guaranteed to make a asprofit, long as theyboth The settled. a at book a you sell to agreement you—an with was first transaction frame time agreeable mutually a within it deliver and price particular (otherwise known and as a a separate transaction futures contract), desti- specified a to delivery for book a purchase to Ingram with was locked Amazon price to you, “ask” adjusting its By constantly nation. secondary; secondary; the inventory and logistics were matters that could be subcontracted to third The parties real essence for a of fee. his business was the accumulating book reviews and purchasing histories of He his that recognized customers. the time it took to read a book represented a higher cost for most buyers than the nominal price of the product. Time spent digging into a read you didn’t like was wasted. So why not let his customers curate his products the way an experienced bricks-and-mortar bookstore salesperson might do? and publicly pontificate to opportunity the that guessed correctly He efforts. their enough for reward help others was AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 98 monitors competitive prices, andadjustsitsown prices accordingly. this objective todo it.actually is to meet the companySo constantly way easiest The price. good, very a least at or best, the getting are you them, from buy you when that confidence your build to wants profits, Amazon of expense the at grow to leeway the company the certain business objectives. As long as investors are willing to permit productive use? For starters, to achievethe fly by adjusting prices on to runafoulthe law.)them of times causes competition some - that theytheir tomarket restrict power how use It’s illegal. not are monopolies belief, popular to (Contrary inance. dom- market to premiumattendantthe waysextract myriadof to a there’scourtesans,as loyal as are industry,customers book and the for true certainly is Amazon,which with deal to but choice no have customers’lifetime value.) monopolies,other with As suppliers once the convergeswith acquisition customer new of ogy, cost the when terminol- business efforts.(In expansion and investment his to curtail decides Jeff and shrink, to starts buyers new of pool potential the assured, statistically is patronage continued your once stop to sure that’s but money, losing by this did mainly He buyers. active than more on information personal detailed including habits,purchasing collective and individual about statistics of array the data. He’s spent nearly two decades amassing an unprecedented to norcouldyoutake were privy advantage not directly. of to purchasethe a item better at priceis, (that Ingram), at something better information than you did. Specifically, knew it where and how had Amazon because worked scheme whole the algorithm,trading spreadgrossprice knownits a as profit.in programmed like the And But how does Amazon put this cornucopia of information to information of cornucopia this put Amazon does how But in was power the that then, did he now,as understands Jeff million 200 2

AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 99 - The question The The free flow 3 6 In other words, if In other words, 5 7 2005 University of Pennsylvania 2000 found that the price of a DVD on 4 percent depending on the user’s browser browser on depending user’s percent the 20 à prendre ou à laisser—take it or leave it. Most people think it’s illegal for companies to charge different different charge to companies for illegal it’s think people Most If you’re an Amazon regular, you’ll notice that the prices of The problem here is that all this wonderful laissez-faire is a is why. The is seemingly why. random character of these changes suggests website likely most process, automated an of result the are they that crawlers pulling prices from other sites, or even on Amazon itself, for, in addition to selling directly, Amazon is a marketplace where others can sell the same goods. A price study at the University of Michigan in the summer of up by to varied Amazon When a of group customers accused of- Amazon charg and account. ing them different prices for the same items, the company attrib uted the discrepancies to “a very brief test to see how customers prices.” various to respond of information of around information the Internet markets, creates winner-take-all is no exception. and online retailing prices but to nothing customers, different illegal there’s or - inappro priate about such practices as long as certain criteria—such as race, and sexual orientation—are notgender, used to Ama- discriminate. zon is not unique in this regard. A research report discusses how grocery store loyalty card programs discount valued coupons at checkout depending differently on offer such appear you factors as how to brand-loyal be. items in your shopping cart inexplicably change over time, some- Whole sprung businesses up have to times mon- by trivial amounts. best price. snag the you help to fluctuations itor these you you were inclined to buy why almost the literally item give anyway, the store? away prelude to AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 100 online, to trying compare the features and prices of different models paper, thesameitem? to find hoping drive to a competitor’s store or search for their ads in the local news hadto - you when shop, to comparison it was difficult more much How information. was first The goods. identical of sellers multiple retailinga bled profitablyto marketvigorous accommodateenough how much a service is costing you at the time you actually pay. know rarely you dates,so due different with separately bills doctor and charges (hospital) facility absurdity,sending of level new a to cars.of confounding of raisedbilling has Medical consumersthis art tion,” “delivery,” and “documentation” feesthe stickerto added price total figure. one to down boils all it end the in though costs, true obscuring of way time-honored a is components into price total the Mincing ulation. into a product price and a shipping price is a fiction toyou subject to manip- cost the Separating advantage. to brilliant them conflated future competitors. population centers, a luxury unavailable to most current or potential major near locally goods the pre-position to scale of economies its San Francisco. Amazon But has solved that problem as well, by using to item same the ship to cost the than less YorkNew be should City to Jersey New in warehouse a from item an ship to cost the cause be- Internet, the on problem a be also could this principle In drive. the worth away—it’s not miles hundred one store a at less for able availis delivery.buy - of to fectiveyou wantcost lamp the if what So The other point of friction for retail goods used to be the ef the be to used goods retail for friction of point other The Before the Internet, there were two points of friction that ena- Examples of this technique in other fields are the “destina- the are fields other in technique this of Examples has related,Amazon closely and are points friction two These 8 Even - AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 101 Like Like the medical Amazon care pioneered industry, a new way Persuading you to prepay for shipping not only discourages But the company has taken the doctrine of information of computers is virtually impossible even for experts, as you need to determine precisely what is included and what you will need to purchase In separately. this regard, Apple Computer is a model of transparency. consumer to obscure the price you pay not only by separating the information required into two disparate parts but by literally making it impossible to discern your total cost until long after you have actually made a The purchase. innovation was to charge you a fixed annual shipping fee—Amazon Prime–regardless of how many purchases you have made or will make during that year. (Arguably, Amazon Prime is an updated variant of the buying-club strategy of charging of illusion oxymoronic the conjures This fee.) membership annual an - Fried Milton economist Paraphrasing for. pay shipping thatyou free no such there’s man, thing as free shipping—someone pays. always Is this fee worth it to Would you? you be better off paying a higher price that includes delivery from an alternative vendor? Only Ama- sure. for knows zon you from shopping elsewhere, it makes rational buying impossible. This is at commendable leastfocus on one for Amazon’s motivation customer satisfaction; as long as you’re happy with the company, comparison to or practices pricing its question to reason little there’s could. if you shop—even asymmetry one step further. Amazon’s network of warehouses is so it extensive, has adopted the remarkable policy of permitting its use and website list to competitors Amazon’s on products own their Amazon’s own facilities for fulfillment.You might think this is an AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 102 for firewood might contribute to a desolate, bleak landscape for their descendants. bleak landscape adesolate, to contribute might firewood for down chopped they trees the whether about worried Island Easter of residents original the than more any consumers future of riment chasing behavior may restructurethe retailing the to landscape det pur short-term their whether with concerned aren’t They factors. other and service,convenience, including deal, all-around best the get they where go will they stupid;aren’t Shoppers be. should it as is this And competitors. of earth scorchingcustomersthe andits in locking after prices monopoly extractscompany the when time table inevi- the to forward look they earnings: times twenty around is age (2013),earnings avertimes the hundredsix than when more panyat com- the value markets financial the reason there’sanother guy, but service, andfair play. outstanding prices, low of narrative a in wrapped deftly petitors, com - and customers advantageoverinformation enduring an quire the sameproducts. to handle costsyou inventory it their than ship and stock competitorsto more problem,your chargeNo toothbrushes? electric for market the over take to costs. Want fulfillment the of share proportional their only competitorscharge to had services. Afterthese it for all,said one no charges it ratesthe adjust can it competitors’because its overcosts control Amazon gives strategy the ultimately and prices, and sales competitors’ into window picture a has it advantages:competitive potential additional two Amazon gives tactic ingenious reality,this in But enjoys.Amazon that advantages same the to guy”access tle that egalitarian serves to act level the playing field by giving the “lit I think I Amazon is an amazing company and Jeff Bezos is a great ac- to is tactics business these behind thread common The - - - - AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 103 But when the river of prices starts to rise and the profits pour A focus on ensuring an information advantage was not the suc- its of much accomplished have could Amazon principle, In Continuously testing and adjusting prices on an individual Are customers willing to pay a penny more for tissue after the judge to which with points reference competitive familiar the in, value received will have long been submerged or Jeff’s swept away. decision to name the company Amazon—the name of the biggest river in the world, which sweeps away everything in its path—now sense me.to more makes only lesson that Jeff learned He from also Dave Shaw. took to heart the immense benefits thatadvanced computer technology could this data. from bring profiting to scenes—hiring the behind practices retail traditional only using cess product managers to monitor competitors and set prices, - purchas ing agents to selectand warehouse workers and to order inventory, pick and ship And orders. indeed Amazon has plenty of all of these. But Jeff also invested heavily and early in automated systems to exploit his unique These advantages. aren’t the conventional data- processing systems of bricks-and-mortar competitors, which don’t the opportunityhave adjust to instantly prices to market conditions and individual customer habits. And that’s where artificialintelli- in. comes particularly machine learning systems, gence, basis while responding to competitive threats is mind-bogglingly complex. Whether your goal is to reinforce the perception of low prices or to maximize extraordinary profits, speed and judgment is required, applied thousands of times a second across countless - si multaneous Conducting transactions. this massive ballet requires a has built. what Amazon exactly And that’s intellect. synthetic AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 104 to the following board:discussion Amazon an on complaint sample actual been “I’ve an Here’salgorithms. learning machine by explored ocean omable unfath - the is This items. other with along purchased if earphones return to likely less are holders MasterCard ones,or red with books coversto blue preferwith books apartments in liveends, who those weekdays on flowers week pay on moreto than for artificial willing constraints.such no Perhaps hyphenatedwith customers arenames hand,suffersother from the intellect,syntheticon possess.ketersA mar human professional few that insight of level a requires them asking consider to them.Even behind logic of glimmer some detect dle? Andby exactly how much? films before noon prefer reading romances to mysteries on their Kin- classic stream who people Do edge? the over you put to discount slight a needs who person of sort the you Tuesday,on are or it get can you if price full at charger iPhone spare a purchase to likely you champagne?Arethe price of the winningcitylesssensitive in about buyers Are game? football fought closely a loses team home their straight.” price.927 infuriating.is It Theyhave followedpattern this for noticed it in the morning, cancelled my order and repurchased at the to again drops then $5–$10, between drops it 5pm the company’s willmaximizethat and deals profits. offers the precisely with you, only and you,presenting from panies com- such deter will future,nothing the In prices. low everyday ing overnight,927 around then TodayAmazon illusion,the maintains reality, the not if hav of These questions may be difficult to answer, but at least you can Throughout this process, you will remain thoroughly in con- in thoroughly remain will you process, this Throughout 9 42LV [LG forty-two-inch HDTV], the price drops price the HDTV], forty-two-inch [LG 5500 am EST,9am to pops it 967,around then overnight. I overnight. 927 days3 - - - AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 105 - 11 Soon, you will wake up to text messages that offer 10 Our lives will be filled with individual propositions like these, Amazon, Amazon, of course, is simply a single example of a phenom- coupons pop up on your Today, smartphone as you drive past ganization before Friday. before ganization a reserved parking spot close to your office ifyou agreeto for leave work minutesfifteen earlieryou give a than free movie usual, ticket if you skip watering your lawn, let you upgrade your iPhone a year sooner if you donate a pint of blood to your health maintenance or managed by synthetic intellects whose goals are to optimize traffic, conserve natural and resources, manage health care. But there will be other systems with less lofty goals—to sell out the last dough- nut as close as possible to closing time, to rent you a street-view apartment when a river view is to also route available, you through Salt Lake City while reserving the direct flights for higher-paying travelers. last-minute trol. trol. After all, it’s a free country—you can decide for yourself, take it or leave it, choose whatever path strikes your fancy. But you may while exercise freedom as an individual, collectively we will not. Synthetic intellects are fully capable of managing the behavior of groups to a fine statistical precision while permitting individualsto direction little heartstheir predictable desire. in whatever roam enon that is quietly expanding into many aspects of our - lives. Syn thetic intellects of every variety discreetly bargain with take us, our sim- between line fine a But there’s interests. our note and measure, us incenting and attention our to opportunities relevant bringing ply to take actions that benefit others. And the authorityto craft these and thereby incentives, manage is our gradually collective behavior, people machines. to from moving the local mall. AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE SHIPPING 106 reserving the lion’sreserving share for . . . exactly whom? while to accept, willing are you that benefits the of slice thinnest the you shaving be will intellects synthetic enormous scenes, the behind But efficient. and you, to convenient,customized more ever grows world modern the how at marvel you while paws, cat on if unnoticed,as and silently in creep will regime newhumankind. The sight. in humans no with life,your of aspects all in Amazons by rounded sur You’llbe sorted. is deck the how exactly knows and card countsevery dealer the where game a in house the against playing be You’llcan. you than better behavior own your predict to ability the and accept; to likely is person next the what exactly of knowledge over have that whelming advantages over you: systems speed; access to timely information; with horse-trading incessantly be will you that traders,is human as forums same the in competing tems charged withextending cell phonecontracts. system another with bartering By upgrade? iPhone that for range ar system inventory plasma blood HMO’s your did How theaters. movie the for revenue generate to is goal whose system another contractingwith By coupons? ticket Fandangomovie those get tem sys- management resource department’s water the did How goals. their accomplish to themselves among bartering and negotiating snowcap on the mount. Behind the scenes, they will also be furiously This is a strange frontier, without precedent in the history of of history the in precedent frontier, strangewithout a is This sys- securities-trading automated the with as problem, The the be only will you to visible systems these of part the But - - - 7. America, Home of the Brave Pharaohs This page intentionally left blank n his 1926 short story “The Rich Boy,” F. Scott Fitzgerald famously wrote, “Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me.” At the time, his world seemed to be fracturing into three classes—those who could buy and do whatever they wanted, those who were constrained to living on the fruits of their own labor, and those who wished they or their children might someday be in one of the other two groups. In previous ages, the trappings of class tended to be quite visible. The clothes and jewelry you wore, your accent, which railcar you rode in or deck your stateroom was on broad- cast to those around you where you fit into a hierarchy of society largely measured by your material wealth. But in today’s world of blue-jeans-wearing CEOs, twenty- something startup billionaires, private aircraft, and carry-on luggage, identifying the most fortunate among us is a more difficult task. For Ithose at the very top, Forbes magazine publishes an annual ranking, simultaneously a source of pride and embarrassment for many on the list. But for an astonishing array of extremely wealthy people, keeping their riches out of sight is something of an obsession.Â It’s one thing to assert your status among your peers, at the Pebble Beach clubhouse or a Four Seasons resort in Hawaii, but standing out at the local movie theater or your kid’s soccer league awards ceremony is another story. People don’t like it, and they don’t like you. So you’re careful to fit in. You don’t mention the Porsche Speedster your husband gave you for your twentieth anniversary, the vacation home you just bought on a whim in Carmel, or what your

109 AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 110 areas. differentin concealed systems sound high-quality separate two are There outdoors? music to listen to year.Like the of much for roses or stroll through the manicured gardens that brim with multicolored lawn,front the on croquet playswing, porch the on barbeque,relax outdoor the on cook tub, hot the in dip a take pool, the by gazebo the fire pit, play chess on a life-sized outdoor chess board, laze the in around chairs Adirondack graceful the in sit can YouBored? hawk. California red-tailed majestic a of eye watchful the under sionally occa- offspring, their on tabs keep to cables overhead on stoically perch doves mourning of pairs Mated ways. murderous their cuss dis- to doubt no night, the for in turning before gabfest raucous a for sycamore giant our to flock often crows of hundreds sundown, before Just service. and amenity imaginable every about just and restaurants, fine parks,theaters, movie from walk short a only yet trees sycamore oak, redwood, and majestic with land, graced flat of youthat My is onlyrequest staytuned forthe punchline. veracity.my doubt may they experience own their outside so say to have I what find simply will Some appalled. possibly or off put be likely will group larger A too. live I way the agreement—yep,that’s in nodding be will book this of readers the of Some point. portant workout.to bediscreet. Better personal trainer said when he stopped by that morning for your daily system decorated like a Viennese bordello, a kitchen with four differ five-foot living room, billiard a room, theater projection with room a a forty-by-twenty- in ceilings ten-foot has floor first style.The gian Our house was built in acre an on sits home Our place. nice a in live I and wife My im- makean to offbut show indiscreet,to be I’mto not going 1904 by a famous architect in the Geor - -

AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 111 - - - . 1606. Seats 150 people in the house for a party We We can handle about You’ve You’ve been very patient, so here’s the punch line: according I’m sincerely, truly grateful for my and sincerely, I’m life, particularly for my 1 percent of Americans. That is to more say, than one out of a ent sitting two areas, two two refrigerators, microwaves, and sinks, three dishwashers, all of which come in handy for parties. But the real jewel is the Itdining room. was purchased in Europe by a - previ ous who resident, had it disassembled and reconstructed on site. It sports dark wood paneling, a unique Jacobean floral design on the plaster ceiling, and an original cast-iron fireback dated up The second to floor comfortably contains twenty-four for dinner. for one larger a and kids four our of each for one suites, separate five a The second incorporating projection third floor theater system. us, bedrooms two with suite guest a and room, workout a office, my has and a bath with an original claw-foot freestanding Almost tub. for got elevator. and mention the wine cellar to ing piano and writing this book. Believe me, it hasn’t always been like this. I’ve lived in tenements on the South Side of been Chicago, beaten and robbed at taken knifepoint, the subway home from my warehouse job in Brooklyn to a roach-infested studio rental in sub temperatures. freezing fabled in the noteven we’re income, on based statistics, latest the to top without breaking we a Butneed sweat. for larger to groups, use the This guesthouse. two-story structure in the style of a New England farmhouse has two baths, three bedrooms, three two refrigerators, and kitchens, an open downstairs floor plan that can accommodate 200 guests. around wife. I am thankful for my my family, friends, and the freedom to basically do whatever I want with my remaining years, like play AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 112 dollars. Forbes list. That honor is reserved for people with multiple billions of the for qualifying to close come don’t land—most the in richest the earrings from Claire’s,teenagers. to astore sellsshiny that baubles wife doesn’t care much for expensive jewelry, so she’s happy to wear My long.) too last and made well too are Lexus—they a buy (Don’t down. break won’t just thing damn the fifteen-year-old because car day.every a school drive from I and to kids the takes and dishes the cating politicians, includingsittingandformer presidents. suppli- of parade a for fund-raisershobby. host a neurship,Some as entrepre- for school private own his start to buildings downtown surrounding several and hotel ten-story a bought Another Springs. Palmprefers other the while Aspen in weekend the spend to wants familymember one case two—in but private one have jet Some not per Simon friend’sone party.forprivate birthday entertainment the as formed Paul organ. pipe full-sized a with chapel a and pools lap outdoor and indoor both acres,with six on set feet square sand thou- thirty overthat’s us from distance short a house one There’s cars. antique of collections and trails, jogging stables, horse have neighbors Valley. Other Silicon in residence palatial main his from drive a short property oceanfront Pacific prime of acres fifty-three and Vallarta,Puerto Valley,and Sur,Sun Big in houses ranch, a ing includ- properties, residential seven owns friends our of One pers. livethe proverbial higheron hog. presumably and do, we than year each more earn people hundred Jeff Bezos is on this list, with a personal fortune estimated by estimated fortune personal a list,with this on is BezosJeff among aren’t neighbors and friends wealthier our even But contrast,By weekend.each laundry myown do I Mywife does pau- like look us make who people of plenty know I And 1 - AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 113

- - - 10 percent re Efforts to close this close to Efforts 3 ). ). 2011 What does that number lifetime earnings of a college U.S. 5 11 percent annual which return, is the aver Jeff makes more on a Saturday spent on the golf golf on spentthe Saturday a on more makes Jeff 2 Here’s Here’s a more disturbing comparison. In the depths of the But, as with increasing computing power, at some point, quan- point, some at power, computing increasing with as But, In no way am I suggesting that Jeff didn’t earn or does notdoes de- or earn didn’t suggesting Jeff I that am way no In By comparison, By the comparison, average 4 course than the other college grads in his foursome, taken together, course than the other college in grads taken together, his foursome, lifetimes. will earn in their entire recent recession (2009), the California state budget ran a deficit of worth.net Bezos’s Jeff than less far billion, $26.3

Califor for responsible way any in not certainly He’s wealth. his serve nia’s budget challenges and governance failures. On the contrary, in budget nia’s challenges On and the governance failures. contrary, his he spare supportstime, a number of projects and thatprograms serve the public interest. For instance, he gave $15 million for brain research at Princeton University and $20 million to the Hutchinson Center. Research Cancer Forbes Forbes at $32 billion (as of March mean? Let’s mean? assume Let’s an age return on equities over the past fifty That’s $3.5 years. billion a including weekends. day, or $9.6 million per in appreciation, year million, and the average high school graduate earns graduate school high average and the million, $2.3 is graduate million. about$1.3 a few. gap gap in subsequent years included pay cuts and forced furloughs for a approximately of a workers month, days state three shorteneda school funding, college community and K–12 ductionin year, early prison releases and summary parole, and reductions in the Medi-Cal program. These cuts disproportionately affected the emergency preschool food children, disabled, programs, blind, aged, assistance, pregnant women, and women enrolled in the California Breast and Cervical Cancer Treatment Program (BCCTP), to name AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 114 sports teams, or even whole sports, seems endless. For instance,endless.ForOr sports, seems whole eventeams, or sports it), civicproject. whichiswhy thisparticular hepersonallyfinanced emulates Jimi Hendrix’s playing style (and I might add is very good at and loves He me. to mystery guitar,no Microsoft,it’son of founder divert society’s resources toward matters of personal interest to you. and legislation, the public impact agenda—but mostly, the power to politicians influence elections,sway to powerpower. youThe gives pinch. It a relatives in and friends out help to ability your or lifestyle your affect doesn’t today control your under dollars of millions of titative differences become qualitative. Having more than a few tens Copland or George Gershwin. George or Copland Aaron like composers American great less much Morrison, Jim or Joplin Janis like contemporaries deceased talented equally his than rather artist pop particular this to homage city million the $80 an why hosted wonder might they but Hendrix, Jimi to dedicated and by inspired Museum,originally Project Music Experience the to erences individualswithhuge of amounts money.” of pref particular the by more and peer-reviewgroups by or priorities the in science of practice the worse, or better remarked,“ForScience, of vancement Ad- the for Association American the at analyst policy a Edwards, A. Steven passions? individual’s single a than more by directed be perhaps or elsewhere, applied better be effort high-minded this to devotedresources the might it,but do to right his it’scertainly and posed to governments) can explore the solar system. op- This is laudable, (as individuals private so spaceflight of cost the reduce to ing The list of wealthy people who have purchased or supported supported or purchased have who people wealthy of list The Tourists in Seattle in TouristsSeattle in work company a Origin, Blue started Bezos Jeffinstance, For st century is becoming shaped less by national by less shaped becoming is century 21st may have been delighted by a visit visit a by delighted been havemay 2000 7 Having jammed with Paul Allen, co- Allen, Paul with jammed Having 6 - - - AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 115 - 8 You might think that this sort of wasteful endeavor in ser the might think that sortendeavor this wasteful of You There’s a widespread belief that for the economy to thrive, we we to belief thrive, economy the thatfor widespread a There’s For much of its ancient existence, Egypt was ruled by a single vice vice of a single person might cause an empire to collapse under the threat of violent revolution. But ancient Egypt had a relatively sta- some- ble political and thousand economic system years, several for thing that seems almost beyond hope for modern political entities.

acle’s acle’s CEO Larry Ellison invested $300 million in the America’s Cup - person of Securities, Montgomery founder Weisel, Thom race. yacht ally organized a bailout of USA the Cycling, governing body for U.S. . in 2000 racing, bicycle need a robust and healthy middle The class. reasoning is that there buy would who and goods, consumer for demand strong be to needs them if not the middle class? Unfortunately this is completely mis- taken. absolute The monarch. believed pharaoh, to literally be the child of the sun god personally Ra, owned all the resources of the kingdom. A large bureaucracy of administrators and clergy administered the distribution of land and collection of taxes on behalf. the pharaoh’s During many critical periods, after meeting the minimum physical needs of the public for food and shelter, much of wealth Egypt’s went excess into construction of a single monolithic building—a pyramid to serve as the pharaoh’s tomb. These magnificent- struc tures, coated with highly polished white limestone, likely gleamed eyes. one’s avert to forced was one that sun midday the in brightly so pyramids larger the of one build to required workforce the of size The is in butdispute, most modern scientific estimates peg itat around two of period sustained a for laboring workers thousand twenty-five decades. or more AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 116 employerthe United States, in with1.3milliondomesticworkers. the basicsforto landajobworkingthose lucky for enough the rich. holds on a continuing basis. And increasingly, that’s what happening. wealthiest the for work could number this annually.times dollars ten of billions But of hundreds or tens the in be would cost the because particularly mogul, Internet some of ect the United States. wealthiest wealthiest nearly by currentlyearned is which $20,000 of salary average an At workforce. total the of percent 40 over employ would this $30,000 proximately ap- of salary median worker’s U.S. the At want. they whatever on of return of rate annual an trillion.Assuming $20 about to out pencils States.That United the in wealth total the of one-third than more Egypt was around was Egypt contrastthe population, to muchof they mostlydinedon meat. In requirements. public-service compulsory fulfilling citizens least at or volunteers, were they that evidence ample is contrary, there slaves.the wereworkers these On that is misconceptioncommon A employed thirty-six thousand people. in China.peak to its At only second about has States United about be would pyramids the built that one the to today States United the in force 10 percent,they could affordto spend trillion $2 a year, every year, It’s hard to imagine to It’shard What might this look like? As with most such stark pictures, stark such most with As like? look this might What h top The For much of the relevant time frame, the population of ancient 1 percent could employ two of out every three workers in ecn o hueod cmltvl hl slightly hold cumulatively households of percent 1 ilo wres o u ti i prpcie the perspective, in this put To workers. million 5 10 million. A proportionately comparable work comparable proportionately A million. 1.5 Presumably the rest would be needed to provide million active-duty military personnel, military active-duty million 1.5 million people working on the pet proj pet the on working people million 5 1967,NASA’s U.S. programspace percent of the workforce,the of the percent 40 9 Walmart is the largest private percent of U.S.house- of percent 1 million people, or people, million 60 - AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 117

Piercing this dance of the corporate 11 One way to see how the wealthy are reshaping our economy The first reason this isn’t happening is that the wealthy aren’t aren’t is happening reasonfirst thatwealthy The isn’t this the The second reason is that you can’t see most of the labor swer because a visually indistinguishable knockoff costs around $30 around costs because swer a visually indistinguishable knockoff (including profit). Ofcourse,you canget an equally practical handbag for even less at roughly Therefore, Sears. speaking, about $650 of that purchase is going not to the practical utility of being able to carry personal butitems around to of the maintenance social status and the personal sense of through generated self-worth the display expenditure. of gratuitous is to look at sales growth of these so-called luxury While items. the - latestcertainly downturn economic con the had general an impact, luxury for demand consumer that is analysts industry among sensus veils, veils, the entire labor force making the bag is, for all practical pur- similar a Whatwould her. like others and wife my for working poses, bag cost if made as cheaply as an That’s possible? easy question to an- it’s not realistic. Two out of Two three not people it’s wouldn’t realistic. be commuting to private homes to rub the feet of the rich. But the truth isn’t as far might hope. distant as you this scenario from spending all they could—not by This a money long is shot. being - re personal in up piling returns the with uses, other put to and invested “rainy trust, day,” and retirement funds. This is the proverbial rich richer. getting devoted to the whims of the rich because it is embodied in goods and services. If my wife purchases a Gucci handbag for $1,000, that money is going in two directions. Gucci shareholders are getting about $300, but the remaining $700 is going mainly to pay people indirectly or Gucci) of employees as is, (that directly either it, make to to their employees. suppliers’ AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 118 the previous leader. 2013 luxury segment growth was in the Americas, surpassing China, highest the that reports Company & Bain years. three next the for growth GDP European projected the times four be to expected are since year every growth annual double-digit experienced have goods and accessories,apparel, luxury for sales global Group, the top and the spending, all of one-third about for account earners income top the Analytics, Moody’s of economist chief Zandi, Mark to According spending. total of proportion large a for count ac- to it for long take doesn’t it sales, retail all for rate growth the recession-proof. is brands quite plausible that, within the next decade, the wealthiest wealthiest the decade, next the within that, plausible quite misgivings when I contribute to my kid’smy to contributeI cam- when privatecapital misgivings school money.and GatesBill example mind.comestoan is that Even haveI time their with do to prefer personally might they what of gardless re - ignore, not should or cannot they that imperative moral a are endeavors charitable that realize to come Many not. do us of rest could Ialleviate? How many dreams fulfill? sufferingmuch save?How I couldlives many less How night. at soundly bit a sleep would I position, that in I were but Jeff, for speak can’t enjoy. I to left dollars billion several had have still and deficit the out wiped have could pen, a of stroke rathermiddle classbut by anever-concentrating cadretheelite. of States. That would be thriving a economy driven bythe not mythical United the in spending retail of half than generatemore could cent When the growth rate of luxury goods consistently exceeds consistently goods luxury of rate growth the When h sprelh cry bre, itnl o nt ta the that not, or wittingly burden, a carry superwealthy The the with alone, Bezos Jeff that realize to uncomfortable It’s percent account for close to foraccountclose percent 20 13 12 codn t a eot rm h Carlyle the from report a to According percent of spending. of percent 60 aiona annual California 2009 percent of of percent 5 and 2009 per 5 14 It’s - AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 119

15 , 2009, I was running a small Internet game company called But enough about the look rich. Let’s at the other side of this because I hired Emmie I Nastor know, is the perfect employee. Another affliction uniqueto the rich is the erosion of mean- coin—the myriad of talented people who work hard yet struggle all their lives for simple things that the elite take for granted. It’s easy to and statistics display charts showing just is how difficult life But somehow much less poor. the nonworking the poor, for working these tools don’t capture the real gravity of their circumstances. So instead, I’ve selected a single individual—typical in many ways—to profile,in the hope that his story willconvey these struggles more graphically. him. In we clear was it employees, aboutten to grew we When Winster.com. needed a receptionist. The job required good computer and people paigns paigns instead of a local homeless shelter. We are all faced and deductibilitytax not does righteousness. indicate choices, with ing in their lives. When everything is freely available, nothing has covet, you something acquire to strive to have don’t you When value. when you can buy your way out of uncomfortable situations and aren’t forced to you compromise lose with others, the psychological One boundaries thing noticed I’ve when thatshape give life. to your my “make friends is it” that their emotional growth tends to cease. Their level of personal maturity is frozen in time like mostsuccessful my an of one risk, this Recognizing insect see. to all for in amber, capital venture partnera star top-tier at a friends, accomplished and firm, segregates his day-to-day livingexpenses from his enormous which he wealth, consciously ignores by leaving its management to others. He prefers to live a relatively modest, though comfortable, lifestyle. AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 120 the job.him to questions won my thoughtfulOfficeresponses direct and his and dates withappropriate credentialsto bringinfor interviews. candi- three or two selected opportunity.I better So a for prowl the on constantly and work the with unhappy be would who someone them achance. give would we only if indefinitely circumstances reduced their cept ac- stoically would they that promised simply others abilities; their demonstrate to while a for free for work to offered Some position. paid any for desperate plainly specialty,all irrelevant some in skills extensive with people and belts, their under experience obsolete of years with work to return to attempting homemakers versities, year.per $29,000 of uni- salary local from MBAs werestarting There a offered which job, entry-level this for overqualified grossly were dred orso,to adozendiscusswith me, select andignorethe rest. hun- first the review to her instructed I packages.stock-option ous gener and salaries hefty of promises with interviews to engineers surprise because even the during recession, you tohad lure software big a in.”was coming This still they’reday. the And of most take to ble. I’ve gotten over ajobonCraigslist. to post manager office overworkedmy asked I tasks.So assigned randomly skills,demeanor,pleasing a varietywide a of do to willingness a and iig n y ortp Eme a br ad asd n California, in raised and born was Emmie doorstep. my on riving What I didn’t know at the time was the path he took to ar to took he path the was time the at know didn’t I What It was a tough choice, but Emmie’s strong skills with Microsoft hiring in point no was there that knew I was, this as sad As applicants Most aghast. was I résumés the reviewed I When A few days later, I asked her how the search was coming. “Terri- 250 résumés. to Just read through them is going - - AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 121 - His parents were staunch believers in the American dream Armed with his new he degree, set out to find a full-time job. some Now, people might have gotten a tad discouraged and son of a hard-working immigrant couple. His parents emigrated to the United States after his father enlisted in the U.S. Air Force and job a got he Eventually Philippines. the in back mechanic a as worked installing telephone lines in people’s homes with a major - telecom Emmie grew munications up company. in a Daly working-class City, younger and sister older an with along Francisco, San of south suburb in 1994. High Westmoor from He graduated brother. and felt strongly that a college education was the ticket to a bet ter The life. most practical way for Emmie to achieve this goal was to enroll in a local community After college. four years of attending classes while Emmie working was able part-time jobs, to to transfer San Francisco State After University. another four years, at the ripe old age of he twenty-eight, fulfilledfor aspirations his him, parents’ earning a college degree. his (Unfortunately, mother never lived to illness.) a protracted in 2007 after cancer She died of colon see it. hours eight least at spend would he diligence, characteristic his With each day scanning the Internet for opportunities, composing cover He out sending and to twenty thirtyrésumés—usually day. a letters, week, a days seven to Five straight. months three for nonstop this did twenty to thirty résumés a day for three months works out to over job applications—without so hundred much eighteen as a single - in interview. to vitation stopped looking for work. But not Emmie. In addition to the usual motivations, what kept him going was his understanding with his was he after only married get would they sweetheartthat childhood not an option. was So failure paycheck. bringing home a regular AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 122 trainee. terprise Rent-a-Car tapped him for a position as a sales management En- job,and receptionist the for interview to in him time.called We miss schoolsoEmmiecould usehiscar. that point, his family decided that his younger brother would have to get to work? Since he was the main breadwinner in the household at he did cleared.paycheckHow his until repair $500 the pay affordto shop for an indefinite stay. It had blown a timing belt, and he couldn’t to lunch. go to permission ask to need didn’t he that him persuade never could I all. it for up was employee—Emmie sick a for card get-well a ing after weekly up company lunches, running to Staples Cleaning for an odd cable, him.select beneath was task No it. complete to stay would he day the of end the at done be to left anything was there at arrival prompt his by clock office the set could You office.the everyonesake of in the for else home him send would we and coughing, and sneezing up show occasionally would he cause no guarantees.the offer SoEmmieaccepted from Winster. a promotion after he delivered a certain level of sales, therebut were sevenweek,fordaysa discretion.eligible its be entirelywould at He randomanyhours,work companyto couldrequire him night,dayor The schedule. his over control no have would he worse, forEven eight. offering was Winster that salary same the basically for day a hours more or ten in put to requiredhim job the good, sounded but ing for Enterprise could offer some insight into the position. The title As luck would have it, a friend of his who was already work already was who his of friend a it, have would luck As Then suddenly he got a break. Actually, two breaks at the same At one point, I was surprised to learn that his car was in the in was car his that learn to surprised was I point, one At be- this say I work. of day a missed voluntarily never Emmie , and if and 9:00, - - AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 123 , In we , mid-2012 sold Winster to and another game company, hundred a over were there that learned he applying, after Soon But that wasn’t the end of the process. Next, fifty ormore The job did not turn out to be what he expected. Working So Emmie went with mine). (along eliminated position was Emmie’s of recommendation, him a stellar I wrote a job. for back searching to for ask even to cared one matter—no not to out itturned but course, it. This time, things were a little He easier. spent only two months sending out résumés before he got an expression of interest, from the same telecommunications company his father had worked for, version updated an basically was This installer. premises a become to of butthe job this had his homes, wiring father time up for people’s cable and Internet in addition to telephone service. first he job, the for considered be To position. same the for applicants had to pass a not This two-hour competency covered test. the usual ofknowledge or English the butapplicant’s high school math rather wiring standards and installation In practices. other you had words, no hope of landing the position unless you already had the specific skills or required the diligence to learn the subject on own your (the ad- big Emmie’s advance). in materials training no provided company him on tutor could the subject. that his father was vantage people were called back for face-to-face When interviews. Emmie’s aboutpeople for he questioned was by ten two turn different came, minutes He each. must made have the because cut, he was then instructed to report to a medical facility for a physical exam and drug test. The company finally offered him the positionat a starting annual salary that was ,500 $6 more than his Winster salary. He was accept.to elated conditions mirrored those of nineteenth-century factory workers; AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 124 pened early in the workday as he was carrying some heavy equip- heavy some carrying was he as workday the in early pened overclimbing roofs,and houses Emmie’s broke. actually hap- back It pay.monly disciplinedwithasuspensionwithout reprimand. Unless there’s a reasonable a excuse, the employeefor is com- office the to in called is installer the service, the with happy un- is customer a If out? fill to pestered are yousurveys satisfaction to evening give himachance. Hewastoo valuable where hewas. will- tenure—was eighteen-month his during supervisors different supervisor’shis without approval, fivehad them—he of one not and in But a Catch-22, he wasn’t allowed to apply for an internal transfer path.career of sort some on get or learn to opportunities him offer abreak. without years days.five That’sfew a for Hawaii in honeymoon and married been shortly after he started at Winster, had when he vacationtook time off to last get His week. a once only minutes few a than more for family his see to got he days, most time free of hour an about to midnight. matter how late was. it Occasionally he didn’t finish work until close still waiting for their promised installation or repair appointment, no were customers if home go to permitted was group work his in one “insubordination,”forlegalese groundsis termination.for which No considered was hours these work to day.Refusal a hours fourteen or twelve for often week, a days consecutive six work to required sometimes was He ineffective. are workers protect to place in put safeguards and reforms regulatory extensive the of many plainly After a year and a half of back-breakingunder work,crawling of half a and year a After customer- annoying those with happens what wonder Ever might that company the within positions researched Emmie With bed. to gone had wife his before home rarely was He AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 125 During his rehabilitation for sciatica and lower back pain, the Despite the lack appalling of working and conditions, respect, What happened to his dad? After retiring a few years he ago, ment into a home. In customer’s accordance with what he believed answer, no was There supervisor. his called he procedure, proper was so he left a message. In serious pain, be returned to the dispatch depot—but not offor fear completing a before the - rep installation, rimand. But he got one anyway—for not making more of an effort He was an on-the-job injury. a supervisor after to reach immediately without pay. days three suspended for basically sitting in company restricted “light him the duty,” office to and calling customers to confirm their appointmentsfor the next His day. employers apparently expected him to hate this and quit, but they don’t know Emmie. He soldiered on with his - characteris tic upbeat demeanor. But the temporary respite gave him time to ponder what his newborn life son’s might be like if he grows up in a household where So Dad he is around. never took the opportunity After available. be might hours saner opportunitieswith what see to . . . got finally bite he a résumés, of outsending blizzard again a once giving up despair. in the search before Rent-a-Car, Enterprise from dearth of prospects for advancement, Emmie remains grateful for the job and the paycheck. He accepts with equanimity the broken a offer would degree college a get to slog eight-year his that promise better than his father’s. a life to path old his with job a landed he so retirement, like didn’t he that decided employer as a premises installer—at half his previous salary. Even worse, the position was in Sacramento. After suffering through a multihour commute for about a he year, decided to pull up stakes his house in Daly City and his siblings. Emmie to leaving and move, AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 126 median of $77,300 ( the exceeds far also worth net his him, to leaving is father his sets as- other some and house the in ownership part his with 2012.And median,nationalin the above$53,046 well is income household his brother,wifeand his by contributionsmade some and pay overtime book.” fully. “It’s very unlikely that anyone I work with would ever read your thought said really,”he status. “Not employment his affect might able future. the mountain of student loan debt he’ll be paying off for the foresee- considering particularly mortgage, a for qualify property,less much similar a on payment down a for enough aside set to hope possibly same that Emmie job has now. this,Without there’s no way he could decades ago with savings accumulated by working at essentially the inherit a partial interest in the house his father was able to purchase adit wrls cmuiain hs sses s enormous use systems These communication. wireless bandwidth high- wide-area in advances technical from threat under is fession pro- entire his But automated. easily be can appointments tomer’s cus- confirming assignment his that obvious seems It yet. screen far, sogood.” we are to trying our staybest afloat this in dog-eat-dog economy. So that is say can I that all . . . issues financial having from free are we hind. “I can’t say that we are better off than others, nor can I say that be- falling about worried constantly he’s Yet States. United the in households the half than more than shape financial better in are ily ie y w soy Emes a a uc ln. nldn his Including line. punch a has Emmie’s story, own my Like story his telling my that concerned was he if Emmie asked I Emmie is happy for his dad. He also regards himself as lucky to But the real threat to Emmie’s future isn’t even on his radar his on even isn’t future Emmie’s to threat real the But 2010). 16 Which is to say that Emmie and his fam- - AMERICA, HOME OF THE BRAVE PHARAOHS 127

18 250,000 people currently em- 17 One such technology is DIDO (distributed input, distributed output), developed by Silicon Valley entrepreneur Steve Perlman, whose previous accomplishments include If QuickTime and WebTV. his approach wins out in the marketplace, he will add handsomely to his already vast fortune, while the ployed installing and repairing wiring in the United States will be Rent-a-Car. jobs with Enterprise entry-level applying for computing computing power and sophisticated adaptive continuously adjust AI radio signals to local conditions algorithms at multiple - re to eliminating the wiring need on-premises for simultaneously, ceivers entirely. This page intentionally left blank 8. Take This Job and Automate It This page intentionally left blank espite what you read in the press, global warming isn’t all bad, and certainly not for everyone. There will be winners and losers, depending on where you live. In my case, it’s a tad too cool around here for my taste, but luckily for me, the average temperature where I live is projected to rise several degrees over the next few decades. Sounds good; hope I live to see it. Global warming in and of itself isn’t a problem. After all, life on earth has survived numerous cycles of cooling and heating. The real problem with global warming is how quickly it happens. If there isn’t enough time for living things (including us) to adapt, rapid changes in climate, not to mention more volatile weather patterns, can sow Dhavoc. The consequences of catastrophic climate change can rever- berate for centuries as species suffer horrific losses of their habitat, leading to mass extinctions. The impact of technological change on our labor markets works the same way. As long as change is gradual, the markets can respond. Too fast, and it’s chaos. And as with my particular environmental preferences, it creates winners and losers. The likely accelerating effect of recent advances in artificial intelligence on technological change is going to roil our labor markets in two fundamental ways. The first is the simple truth that most au-

131 TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 132 fessional judgment. But learning the new skills doesn’t happen over pro- own their to superior are intellects synthetic that accept they antibiotics—once right the select to computers use to doctors and eventually learn to operate looms, gardeners to service lawnmowers, pands its total workforce, the tellers remain of out luck. Weavers can ex ultimately bank the if Even tellers. not but engineers network hire to need a creates service improved the ATMs; installs bank a make only skills.obsolete jobs not but teller mayA laid offget when way the theyoperate. organizationalThese processimprovementsand often reengineer and reorganize to businesses permitting by game the of rules the advanceschange technological Manypredict. you’ve sailboat that your got eye on. forsave to paycheckyour drop,fromover to there’s left moreprices the money they saved. If new drilling technologies cause natural gas spend to decide service or product some for much as pay to need longer no who customers the where economy the of parts distant in be may workers.it more Or hire to need sales,increasea creating quality better and improvedprices enterprise,lowernewly as the in compensatesthat growth forthe losses. mayThe growth be directly job stimulating wealth, create eventually cost reduced and tivity need for new hirethat until quarter. next the deferring week, a day one home at productively more work to need for one-fifthof a salesperson, or free Skype calls may allow you times change is less visible. Each new workstation may eliminate the some- door. But the to worker a walk and robot a in roll employers measure— and see to easy is threat work.This to people for places fewer means jobs. That eliminates it workers,so replaces tomation But the second threat is much more subtle and difficult to difficult and subtle more much is threat second the But slowly,produc- improvementshappens in resulting this the If - - TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 133

1 - - 40 percent, 80 percent of U.S. workers. percent loss of agricultural agricultural of loss percent 1/2 Basically, we managed to automate nearly 2 1.5 percent, including unpaid family and un- , 1900, that figure had dropped half,in to But by For For an example of labor market transformation that we have Now Now imagine that this had happened in two decades instead and You your five brothers and with sisters, anaverage third- documented documented workers. and today it’s only Consider Consider what this Producing means. food was by far the dominant typ- been had pattern this doubt no and living, a for did people thing ago. years thousand aboutfive agriculture of invention the since ical night, and night, sometimes the redundant workers simply aren’t capable workers. of generation new a for wait to have will adapting—that of as the early As recently agriculture. consider successfully, weathered 1800s, farms employed a remarkable a host and wealth- people up offor other productive freed we ment, economy lastthe U.S. the centuries over So two activities. producing about average able on absorb to was dislocations. job opportunities without obvious any each year of two centuries. Your father worked on a farm, and his father before him, as far back as Then anyone a could Henryremember. Ford of farming revolutionized the entire industry in what seemed like a - thresh plows, new shiny of rumble the with shook ground The flash. ers, and harvesters; the air was thick with the smell of diesel. Food prices plummeted, and corporations bought up farmland where every with the backing of deep-pocketed Wall Street financiers. farm was lost along your Within family’s to a foreclosure, few years, Bible. the family possession except with every grade education, found your skills straight of furrows, and baling shoeing hay utterly useless, as horses, did all plowing of your everyone out of a job, but outinstead of unemploy causing ofwidespread a everyone job, TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 134 might be organized in a logical and comprehensible way—identicalcomprehensible and logical a in organized be might products companies),traditional more many in (as planning house ware- the do to were person a If warehouses. its in patterns stock they perform. that jobs of types the eliminate will workers;they the idle only not will tions innova - other way. same But the much pretty done job the getting workers,for directly substitute will technologies new ployed,many largely supplant the skilled trades of the educated. When initially de- will labor;intellects skilled synthetic most for need the displace will though doubtlessly less dramatic and more humane. Forged laborers Afterthat, reallythings got bad. revolution.the before was this all But Arkansas. in town small a in used his vast fortune to build a fabulous art museum made of crystal had world the changed who entrepreneur storied the of daughters the that spread Rumors lunches. bag their deliver or clothes their wash to chance a for hoping communities gated their outside line day,in Eachwaitedheads. you their over roof solid a had they least rest—at the of envy the nonetheless were they but by, got barely track your of the rest ally you othersiblings. of lost anyway.dysentery Eventu of - died she sister, but youngest your for medicine buy to Bible the parentssold your that word got youlong, western the cities hope in of finding work—any kindof work. Before Mid - major the ringing cities tent vast the of one to moved you so Topeka,in job the got supposedly who squares, three for return in someone who operated one of the new machines twelve hours a day knew who someone knew Youeat. to had still you But neighbors. For example, consider the way Amazon constantly adapts the adapts constantlyAmazon way example, the For consider ahead,looms shift tectonic similarly a that argueI’m to going The percent who still had jobs lived in tiny tract houses and houses tract tiny in lived jobs had still who percent 1

TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 135 - But a synthetic intellect can intellect synthetic a But 3 4 This is a single example of a profound shift that synthetic have usually they automation, about think people most When A side effect of introducing this innovation is that it reduces intellects will cause in our world. The need to impose order—not only for butwarehouses for just about everything—is driven by the limitations of the human mind. Synthetic intellects suffer no such and impacttheir will turn tidiness as- to in many turmoil constraint, pects of our lives. Our efforts to tame our intellectual and physical domains into manicured gardens will give way to tangled thickets, us. by impenetrable items would be stored next to each other, for example, so when you example, for items would be stored next to each other, needed to pick one, you knew where it was. But a synthetic - intel lect of the sort has built Amazon Like subject isn’t to this constraint. with shipped frequently are that others to next located be can items them, or on any shelf where they fitTo more thecompactly. human eye, it looks like chaos—products of different sizes and shapes are stacked randomly everywhere—which is why this type of warehouse storage. chaotic as known is organization keep track of everything and track directkeep to a exactly worker the right place could. organizer than a human efficiently more far fulfill an order to the training and knowledge required of warehouse workers, mak These laborers. ing susceptible forged by them to more replacement employees no longer have to be familiar with the location of - prod ucts on the indeed, itshelves; would be near impossible to do so in such a Having haphazard and firstenvironment. evolving simplified the skills required to get the job Amazon can done, now replace the workers that roam the warehouse floor picking This those is orders. likely why the boughtcompany the robotics Systems, Kiva company in . 2012 $775 million, reportedly for TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 136 (As I noted in chapter in noted I (As tomated in the foreseeable future. this But isn’t necessarily the case. powersor examplesskills as persuasion of unlikelyones of au- tobe to automationto succumb may nonethelessdisappear.expect least might you that jobs some why That’sreengineering. process by caused disruption extensive more the productivity, not or speed workers’improving or labor of replacement simple the only mind in and for periods shorter of time. This works likejust the housing mar unemployed are people Fewer jobs. new find workers idled the up, higher unemployment. But historically, as soon as the economy picks times, the pool of people who are between jobs may grow, leading to clical,” meaning that people are cycling in and out of jobs. of out and in cycling are people that meaning clical,” two different names for the resulting unemployment. The first is “cy have economists obsolete), skills rendering and workers (replacing motivated by commission whenyou canfindout for sure? salesperson a in faithcalled “crowdsourcing.”)your is put cept Why tial strangers, who earn points if you complete a purchase. (This con- seconds, you get objective, statistically reliable feedback from impar slimmer.look you makesWithin one which to as opinion their offer can visitors where website special a to posted face) your obscuring ferent outfits, and the images are immediately (and anonymously, by storewhereyouareclothing severalphotographed a in Imagine dif youhundredsrealwhen ask of person people? can that youdo need why salesperson. But successful a of hallmark the certainly is outfit replaces.) largely service placement company’sad his that skill a was suasion For instance, studies often cite jobs that require good people good require that jobs cite often studies instance,For Reflecting these two different effects of automation on labor on automation of different effects two these Reflecting The to ability convince you that you terrificlook in a particular , the CEO of Rocket Fuel observed that per that observed Fuel Rocket of CEO the 4, 5 In bad In - - - - - TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 137 - per 4 8 percent percent of workers of40 percent workers So when we talk about 7 , a fairly typical year, typical year, a fairly 2013, The equivalent in the housing market would be if the if be would market housing the in equivalent The That’s a very fluid market. By contrast, less than less contrast, By market. fluid very a That’s 8 6 As you can see from my fanciful examples, the factors that The other type of unemployment which is “structural,” called I was surprised to learn just how much turnover there is in the the in is there turnover much how just learn to surprised was I types of houses available weren’t suitable for the available buyers. Suddenly couples start having triplets instead of single kids and so need more bedrooms, or people start commuting to work in flying cars that can take off only from flat rooftops, while most houses pitched roofs. have change the of desirability housing so don’t usually change very fast, builders and remodelers have plenty of time to adapt. But this isn’t true for automation because the pace of invention and the rate of shifting adoption - the can charac change quickly and unpredictably, can people than rapidly more far segments market labor whole of ter about buffeted We’re all. at retrained be can they skills—if new learn by these fickle winds precisely because they are hardto anticipate and virtually impossible measure. to cent of homes are sold each year. unemployment, unemployment, it doesn’t take long for small changes in the rates to spill ofand or destructionjob conversely creation to soak that up, people outmore of work. means that some group of unemployed simply can’t find suitable employment at They all. can send out résumés all day long, but no the for match poor a because are skills their them, hire to wants one jobs. available changed jobs. changed ket: in ket: a slow there market, are more houses and available the ones that are take longer to sell. But when the market turns around this absorbed. is quickly inventory excess In labor market. U.S. TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 138 Statistics (BLS). Labor of Bureau U.S. the by determined as market, job commercial largest retail—the with Let’spicture.start broader a get to analogy specific some at look examples,to be will to by reason then attempt approach Myfuture. the of tour quick a for belt seat your fasten so tables ordevolve and down inreams charts of into hand-waving. bog to tend process whole this quantify to attempts why is which tools, mathematical traditional by analysis resists ecosystems job evolving and habitats labor disappearing of web this of complexity shiftsskills erratically.useful of landscape the situationbecause The statistics,the aggregateor rate of change obscuresthe reality the of manifest itselfinquantifiable form. to yet had which that anticipating was manager a as contribution important most my felt sometimes I work At teams. management bamboozle seen I’ve projections sales bogus yet detailed ticulously me- of number the count can’t I not.) are risks quantified,easily but returnsare that economy our fact plaguing arethe largely driven by cyclesbusiness unpredictable and troublesome the that made be to argument an there’s(Indeed, outcome. the dominate often surement mea- to reduction resist that trends while things, certain only ture I learned in business, spreadsheets and financial statements can cap- review, which basically means it must be reduced to numbers. But as objective,peer to independent up stand up. must it work back Their to data hard the have must theyalarm, the sound credibly to cause be- understandable, is This quantifiable. the toward bias natural a The BLS reports that about about that reports BLS The constraints,professional same these by bound I’mnot Luckily unemployment market, labor overall the about talking But have markets labor study who academics and Economists 9 percent of all U.S. workers are workersU.S. all of percent 10 TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 139 - - To 10 efficient. 4.4 million in Compare thatCompare 11 14.5 million people. 2 percent of the labor force 4.9 million over the next ten years. 10 percent of the labor force (mostly) 10 percent to Average revenue per employee for Amazon (the largest Amazon online for per employee revenue Average To get a sense of what’s really going to happen, consider the consider ef going really to happen, get a sense of what’s To Now, Now, both companies sell pretty much the same stuff. And establish an upper bound To imagine on job that losses, mag- fect on employment of the transition from bricks-and-mortar stores to stores bricks-and-mortar from transition the of employment on fect A useful online to way retailers. analyze this is to use a statistic called revenue per employee. You take the total annual revenue of a - com pany and divide it by the a number standardIt’s of employees. meas at or least labor- how is, company a of efficient how ure retailer) over the past yearsfive is around. $855,000 analyze trends, let’s use salespersons as a proxy for the whole group. group. whole the for proxy a as salespersons use let’s trends, analyze The BLS projects that this labor which force, stood at will 2012, grow by But this is based on current demographic trends, not a qualitative actually on in going the industry. of what’s analysis employed employed in retailing, or approximately to to Walmart (the largest bricks-and-mortar retailer), whose revenue retailer. any of highest the of $213,000—one around is employee per about employs Walmart sales, in million $1 each for means that This five people. But for the amountsame sales, of slightly more than employs Amazon one person. So for every $1 million in sales that lost. potentially jobs are four Amazon, to Walmart from shift Walmart does a good portion of its sales online as well, so the job loss implied by the shift to online sales is understated. And neither company is standing still; both are likely to grow more efficient in the future. ically all stores retail sales were to Walmart-like suddenly shift from to The Amazon-like websites. working working in stores would be replaced by TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 140 to support these sales. these support to only but decades, two previous the over did they what much pretty is which period, that overhavedoubled wouldroughly sales retailsales. that means That retail all of half most at for account then unlikely),would (alsothey segment online the to went sales retail in growth all if and likely), were to continue to grow that at pace for the twentynext years (un- taketime.to the shift some isgoing how long? certainly But down—and close to going isn’t mall favorite online—your shift to are we in big trouble here? Not really. Of course, all sales aren’t going the United States, more than the entire retailers.That’sonline for working the is, (That period. that over employment on impact negative percent a only in result likely will retailers online labor-efficient more far words,other In tremendoustoshift storesfrom a bricks-and-mortar about about of rate a at consistently growing been have These online. currently force will grow only about about only grow will force on careful demographic projections, the BLS estimates that the labor stores don’t grow all, at plausible. whichisnot more than take slack. that morethan up will products these ship and manufacture, design, that industries of sorts all in jobs sales,new retail of doubling a better.with Surely loss of agricultural jobs over the last two centuries. But the story gets averageannual percent .5 the to absorb,compared to economy the cent more retail workers required.) That’s only .1 percent per year for 12 percent labor market growth only slightly exceeds the Despite all the hoopla, only hoopla, the all Despite Meanwhile, what’s going to happen to the labor force? Based force? labor the to happen Meanwhile,to what’s going percent annually for the past four years. four past the for annually percent 15 13 ecn mr pol wud e required be would people more percent 10 And that assumes that bricks-and-mortar bricks-and-mortar that assumes that And percent over the next twenty years. twenty next the over percent 12 percent fewer jobs available in available jobs fewer percent 8 percent of U.S. retail sales are sales retail U.S. of percent 6 2014 unemployment rate. So 12 If online sales online If 10 per 14 2 -

TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 141 De- 15 predictable predictable 1.7 million long- D radar, 3D called radar, Lidar, percent over 11 the percent over next ten , , 2012 there were 15 percent or more fuel savings. Oops, did I include shipping on that list? My mistake. Shipping Shipping mistake. on shipping include My I thatlist? did Oops, What’s What’s more, their reaction time is close to zero. As a result, While you may regard highway driving as requiring greater is a In completely story. different livery livery is quicker because they can operate around the clock without they or bored; distracted, sick, They don’t drunk, get resttired, stops. don’t doze talk off, on the phone, or go on strike for better wages than your local neighborhood streets. The existing technology to retrofitted be can to and today operate available is trucks self-driving technology such with outfitted Trucks costs. reasonable very at fleets drive ahead, justmostly straight of instead directions all in “see” can in complete darkness or blackout conditions, and instantly share information about road conditions, nearby risks, and their own intentions. (Basically, they can rely on detailed no and need so for in have conjunction with detailed maps and GPS, headlights.) self-driving trucks can safely caravan with only inches of space between them (called “platooning” in the literature), reducing road congestion and resulting in haul truck drivers in the United States. These are the people who operate the tractor-trailers and other large cargo-carrying vehicles that frequent the interstate highway The system. BLS projects that the demand for these will drivers grow No way. years. skill and more experience than navigating local exactly streets, the a driving is itautonomous opposite when technology, to true comes wonderful hybrid of synthetic intellects and forged laborers. High- ways are well maintained, contain fewer random moving obstruc- more far are and bicycles), and pedestrians as (such tions TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 142 skills requiredthem. to perform The realthe overallissue is just not number of jobs availablethe but truth. deeper a obscure numbers However,raw twist—the there’sa employees.retail droves,not in but jobs their losing be to going bly ogy? technol - this of variations of result a as jobs their lose will (2012) than more the of many that’s But the only applicationsone of for autonomous driving. How zero.to closer likely one—more this on base offway is BLS the that Nearly ing. taking accidents the of many how And conditions. working and proximately day,haveand moved than more day,every operatedhave trucks trial autonomous the began, two-year the Since fleet. truck autonomous an of ployment de- major first world’soperations, the ore iron Pilbara our at trucks of fleet a release:out pressrolling cent is Tinto“Rio realon highwaystested being venues.other and Tofromrequote a - September 11th World Trade Center disaster? the in lost were than annually lives more save couldinnovation gle alone) could be avoided in the future? n GS ytm nvgt atnmul fo laig nt to units dump locations.” loading from autonomously navigate systems GPS and in Perth, Centre Operations our from trucks the control We kilometres. 18 Iwouldn’t recommendthis careerto my option kids. o ut ae o te grgt nmes dies r proba- are drivers numbers, aggregate the on based just So You don’t have to be much of a futurist to see what’s com- what’s see to futurist a of much be to have don’t You Such systems aren’t futuristic pipe dreams; they are already are they dreams; pipe futuristic aren’t systems Such kilometres away.kilometres 1,500 courses,pre-defined follow trucks The million long-haul truck drivers in ten years? I suspect suspect I years? ten in drivers truck long-haul million 2 cycles. They have travelled more than moretravelled cycles.have They145,000 17 ilo (in billion $4. over costing and lives 3,800 million licensed U.S. commercial driversU.S. commercial licensed million 5.7 million tonnes of material in ap- materialin of tonnes million 42 16 May I this that point sin- out large-truck 273,000 automated 150 hours a hours 24 450,000 2011 TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 143

- 19 It 21 23 Agrobot isn’t alone in 22 3 million U.S. farmworkers. 20 2 to Los Los ). Angeles Times Agrobot, a Spanish company opening an office in Oxnard, Cal- a Spanish opening company an Oxnard, inoffice Agrobot, Here’s where things get qualitative, so permit me to paint some paint to me permit so qualitative, get things where Here’s Agricultural workers. Projects are under way that threaten 2010 the European Union started funding the Clever Robots for tackling this opportunity. A Japanese competitor claims that its tech- its that claims competitor Japanese A opportunity. this tackling picking 40 percent.time by strawberry nology can reduce In leader project the As CROPS). as abbreviated (cleverly program Crops agricultural robot “An must explains, be equipped with intelligence and dynamic unstructured, the in operate robustly to able be to as so environment.” hostile agricultural ifornia, makes a commercial robot that harvests strawberries. identifies only the fruit ripe enough for picking. The goodnews is hiring, they’re but only if you’ve got an engineering I degree. doubt much that’s comfort to Elvia a Lopez, kindly thirty-one-year-old Mex pictures. There’s a big difference between the skills required to sell people things in stores and (for example) those required to maintain an online retailing website. It’s not that easy for some kindly - grand mother to go from pointing out the location of the shoe department at Walmart to monitoring product reviews at Amazon. A truck driver who may or may not have completed high school and whose main notwell Netflix may be suited is watching with computers familiarity for many other jobs, particularly since a wide array of other blue- well. as automation succumbing to be to likely are professions collar Robotic devices that can see and operate in natural environments are about to decimate all sorts of labor in Forged laborers, markets. here. I’ll describe a few all directions. from approaching are short, the livelihoods of the remaining ican ican immigrant who picks strawberries in Santa Maria, California (who was profiled in the TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 144 Roxxxy and Rocky). and Roxxxy (named versions male and female both in dolls interactivesexsized full- developing are TrueCompanion Jersey–based New like panies Comform.- new entirely an take to about are they And aren’t. toys States,United sex the but of most in illegal be maytouch. It human with the skills they’ll need to succeed in the economy of tomorrow.” in Google by quired ac- wascompany the after dark went site the (beforewebsite its on quipped it As up. it pick then item, an select truck, a into peer can robots that.Its startup,Perception, leyall Industrial changing Inc.,is containers.shipping Siliconvehiclesdeliveryand another in ValBut - boxesrandomlyshaped stack graspand to how decide to judgment human takes it because now workers human by done is This ages. pack of unloading and loading the there’sabove, described I’ve as operating indaylight. to limited aren’t so and dark the in work can they vehicles, omous because,replacethey workers auton- likethe than fasterbe tohave cameras, computer vision, andmachinelearningalgorithms.” use systems Our environment. the or crops the harming weeds the without kill to order in weeds from crops distinguish can that systems creating materials:are marketing“We their from Toquote weed.can that graduate,Stanfordrobotsdeveloping a is by headed tificial intelligence is the underpinningof the whole project.” Accord- “Ar previously worked BellLabs, inAIat saidinaninterview in2010, Sex workers. You’d think prostitution might be a job requiring a Warehouse workers. Beyondthe picking and packing of orders, the coming that armyNote of mechanical farmworkers doesn’t RiverBlue Technologies,Silicon a Valley venture-funded startup 26 2013),Perceptionis Industrial “providingrobots As the company founder, Douglas Hines, who Hines,founder, Douglas company the As 24 25 - - TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 145 - 28 - grad New 27 30 1977. But they were the 31 percent over just30 percent over the 2011 was only $60,000, down 35 percent of newly minted law 1.2 million licensed attorneys in , roughly roughly three-quarters of them 2010, in private were down 2014 nearly were , 2009, an astounding 29 17 percent from just two years earlier. There’s There’s been much hand-wringing over the challenging - eco My My examples so far may seem to some offer comfort to - read Other projects cooking in AI labs around the world are almost Let’s Let’s start with the practice of law. The American Bar Asso- lucky lucky ones. In uates uates can be saddled with debt of more than 150,000, $ while the average starting graduate’s salary in nearly getting that be to used It degree. law professional a getting of nomics ticket a mention not to accomplishment, great a was school law into have Applications Buton no more. the partner to track the life. good been year as year after falling a is more practical generation waking up to The economic reality. Law School Admissions Council reports that in applications ers employed in more cerebral endeavors, but this relief would be The misplaced. coming wave of synthetic intellects is going to dev ing to the company, “Roxxxy can carry on a discussion and expresses expresses and discussion a carry on can “Roxxxy ing to company, the touch.” your and feel listen, can She talk, you. to her love They aimed are at laun- folding like tasks too numerous to mention. then rinsing loading dishes, bagging - them gro dry, in a dishwasher, elevators). the navigates even robot (one coffee fetching and ceries, astate many of their professions just as surely as forged laborers are are laborers just as forged ofas surely many their professions astate of color the to blind is Automation laborers. manual replace to going collar. your ciation estimates that there were the United in States practice. previous two years, returning to levels last seen in seen last levels to returning years, two previous TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 146 $5,000. Document, for a service that might otherwise typically cost $3,500 to Fairthroughprepared plan estate an for $995 of recommendedbid relativelyis straightforward,case the standard the for attorneysopt if time, the of Most business. their get to bid attorneys then tions, ques- initial some answer clients Potential documents. draft initial prepare and website its on clients “interview” to able is company and estate law, planning, areaon well-defined of fairly routine a the be writtenby acomputer program. draft,first a allow to arewellenough structured one, final a not if to agreements, purchase to papers incorporation to licenses to loans to leases from contracts, commercial intellects. Commonsynthetic to delegation permit to sufficiently rote is work productive most that finding are innovatorsspecialty, after specialty In transactions. mon com - most the for lawyers for need the eliminate or reduce greatly to working is entrepreneurs legal-tech of crop new a But briefs. and contractsdrafting when scratch from start to have don’t you cause be- hours billable reduces This documents. legal of management and storage the on focused largely been has profession legal the in computers of use the Todate,started. getting just are the problems And them. among certainly is automation but attorneys, for bar exam. the pass to them required that work find to failedgraduates school new client and collect the needed information, then spending sev spending then information, needed the collect and client new of conducting the usual phone or in-person interview to educate the torneys happens still next. come ahead what because of out Instead You might think this simply reduces the lawyer’s pay, but at lawyer’spay, but the reduces simply this think Youmight osdr h lgltc satp FairDocument. startup legal-tech the Consider opportunities job affecting factors course,many are, of There 32 33 y focusing By - - - TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 147 The company 34 36 Some do actual research legal 35 Some firms areeven considering moving the machines from A more sophisticated example of synthetic intellects en- Other startups are tackling the time-consuming process of early and provide advice on case strategy, answering questions like, “How tomotions on transferdefendants of orfavor in ruled judge a has often tripped have “What mistakes and summary judgment?” motions for similar IPup others around property]?” [intellectual the back room to the nameplate. Consider the cleverly named law firmYes Robot,of and it’s aRobot, but Hwang. joke, the firm is real. eral hours drafting documents, the attorneys let FairDocument walk walk let the FairDocument attorneys documents, hours drafting eral - explain consultation, online structured lengthy, a through client the ing the required concepts and collecting The the particulars. client’s outareas calling lawyer, to the draft initial an delivers then software judgmentadditional attention. her or or his require to likely thatare - re FairDocument that estimates CEO, company’s the Brewster, Jason duces the time required to complete a straightforward estate plan from several hours to as little as fifteen to thirty minutes, not mention to that his company is doing the prospecting for new clients them and delivering to the attorneys. croaching on legal expertise is the startup Judicata. uses machine learning and language natural processing techniques to convert ordinary as text—such legal principles or specific cases— into structured information that can be used for finding Hispanic male a which in cases all find relevant could it instance, For law. case reading by termination wrongful for sued successfully employee gay the actual text of court decisions, saving countless hours in a law search tool. electronic traditional or using a more library case assessment, discovery processing, document review, document investigations. and internal production, TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 148 course, Legal Informatics, at Stanford University is cotaught by law by cotaught is University Stanford Informatics, at Legal course, tance whileimproving access for potential millionsof clients. assis- legal high-quality of cost the down driving are trends These firms.their to billings their of proportion large a over handing of or politics office of tired are who partners experienced to attractive also it’s but firm, traditional a at position entry-level an land to ble una- are who graduates for opportunity excellent an is say,this to Needless work. their over control and independence more seeking these virtual law offices provide an attractive option for practitioners paralegals, skilled for systems computer sophisticated of stitution office,an expense of the sub ing the through by reducing and costs ties withextensive providedthe company. automated by support establish a working (and billing) relationship,then their perform du- clients, to introduced be can practitioners individual whereby mat, differentfor offera startups these of most But client. a to released are they before correctness for “review”to documents attorneys of staff different small a employInternet. Forinstance,maythey the overforms in presented advice legal automated to amounts what offering by practiced be can law whom by and how on restraints bypassing are startups of number increasing an livelihoods, bers’ legalof practice.” putationalthe to often bear scienceon staid and conservative world universe of thinking from the world of technology, startup, and com- Berkeley. a firm marshal website,Tothe to its from“attempts quote at California of University the from degree) J.D.(law a and Harvard from degree undergraduate an has partner,Hwang, Timjunior The Law schools aren’t standing still, though. For instance, a recent avoidhome,thus at - work to option offeringthe attorneysBy mem- its protect to profession legal the by efforts Despite 37 - -

TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 149 - If it’s If less it’s attractive to how become a about lawyer, a doctor? The main shift is a growing recognition that the medical But the hidden costs of this divide-and-conquer approach to school school and computer science department faculties. The course de- customized when play lawyers will role “What part, in says, scription advice is dispensed over the Internet as easily as cappuccino from a like be will job your what of preview a for Register machine? vending years.” in five The days of the “country doc” are long gone, but information tech- in of medical practitioners nologythe character is also transforming surprising ways. arts are not arts at all but a science that is better driven by - statis tics and data than intuition and itjudgment. In bygone was eras, at least plausible that someone could absorb a reasonable proportion of the world’s medical knowledge and apply it to cases as they are presented. But over the past half century or so, as it became clear that the avalanche of research, clinical trials, and increased under standing of how our bodies (and minds) work was beyond the - com myriad of a into fractured field the individual, single ofa prehension more is physician” care “primary your Today, practices. and specialties for except caregiver, a than specialists of land the to agent travel a of the simplest of ailments. medical care are about to become Coordinating painstakingly clear. the activities plan ofof a actionmultiple into coherent practitioners is becoming increasingly for difficult, tworeasons.First, no one has the complete picture, and, even if they do, they often lack the detailed knowledge to required the formulate best plan Sec- of action. ond, specialists tend to treat the specificconditions or body parts with for inadequate regard the side effects that they are for, trained TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 150 their own uniqueforms pain. of onymus Bosch painting, with tiny, pitchfork-wielding devils inflicting Hier a of image todayconjuresthe medicine Forme, of practice the receiving. be may patient the treatments other with interactions or the physician’s decision making process.”physician’smaking the decision in tool powerful a as serve to cases.expected complexWatson is in tors, to help identify the most likely diagnosis and treatment options fac- patient specified with Watsoninto programmed data medical coordinate easily to physicians allow Watsonto enable to expected is WellPointcapability extraordinary this Using seconds.three than less in responses precise provide and information this analyze and lent of about one million books or roughly equiva- an through sift says,can “Watson announcement care.The patient improve help to technology Watson apply to collaboration a into entered manager, benefits healthcare largest nation’s the redeployedthis new challenge.tackle to In Jennings,Kenimmediately Watsonand wasRutter Brad champions ciously concede control of their patients’ treatment to synthetic in- synthetic to patients’treatment their of control concede ciously gra - to likelyaren’t particular master.in to doctors moving And fast line. unemployment the another’sto is ticket tool support process cision person’sone arebreaking,they but bowls rice de- whose people the into AI fifty years ago,IBM is still cautious not to ruffle the feathers of human exists. such practices.courseno of informationbest medical and But latest the of all dateon to up is and specialties the all in expert is who doc As a patient, you would ideally prefertreatedto be by a super No one likes the idea that his or her field is simply too big and big too simply is field her or his that idea likesthe one No EnterIBM’s Watsonprogram. Fresh off its 38 200 million pages of data, As with its original forayoriginal its with As 2011, and IBM WellPoint, victory over Jeopardy! victory - - TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 151 - - 20 50 per 41 You may feel some comfort knowing 40 flipped —students classroom watch lectures required to use them in certain conditions rather than fly By comparison, mechanical failures are blamed in only 39 It should be obvious that technologies are capable of - replac professions Just many how examples. Butanecdotal are these Doctors and lawyers are not the only professionals with much much with not are professionals only the Doctorslawyers and cent for the past fifty years despite dramatic improvements in air safety. ing the planes themselves. percent percent of events. Planes’ autopilots are now so sophisticated that pilots are current The of settings. variety wide a in ing professors and teachers buzzword for this is the and learn the material online at home, then do their homework at school with the help of teachers and teaching assistants. Teachers may no longer need to reducing or prepare them deliver lectures, to The what diminished skill could be “learning set called coaches.” - re quired is sure to the transform and profession yet create more chal- teachers. beleaguered our already for lenges tellects. But eventually, when outcomes demonstrate thatis the this demonstrate outcomes when But eventually, tellects. better option, patients will demand to see the attentive robot, not a for fraction justof as the many fee, people doctor, the overworked than would a now human an have rather ATM teller count out their cash. to worry about—there are plenty of others. For particularly instance, planes, fly rarely should pilots today’s commercial trained highly error Pilot mind. in passengers their of interests best the have they if is by far the leading cause of hovering around fatal crashes, that a trained pilot is standing by in the cockpit in case of a problem, problem, a of case in cockpit in the by standing pilotis a trained that but not if he’s feeling blue and decides to crash the plane, as has happened in at least flight documented three commercial accidents on board. yearseveryone that killed in the last twenty-five TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 152 sense,though.) make writing and (Reading Chinese. and estimation, statistical ing, typ- like skills practical more than rather school high in French and penmanship,learn to had calculus,kids mywhy me toIt’s mystery a to.wantedthey economy,if the it in valuabledo couldn’tmost they be will skills novel what on date to up keeping field the in out ily customar not are and curricula the administratorsdevelopingthe since trends, economic to responsiveness their for known not are institutions educational accredited students.Our teach should they takes. The first is relying mainly on traditional schools to decide what themselves. employers the areare, these tricks what sure for know who people only the And perform. to them pay will employers that tricks,tricks any just not tricks—but new dogs old teach to need Weskills? lete replacementthe nearfuture.of by amachinein trends. these of drivers key as robotics]” [mobile MR as well as telligence, In- Artificial of sub-fields other Vision,and StatisticsComputational the fieldsof ML [machine learning], including Data Mining, Machine in “advances out call specifically professions.They white-collar and blue-collar of wide variety a across automation significant of risk that reports analysis tailed by the BLS. The researchers’ remarkably detailed and insightful matching near-term technologies to job approach,skills required for quantitative a taken bravely has University Oxford at researchers of group a but answer, to question tough a It’s so? or decade next the in automation to subject newly be will Withto professional respect training, we are twomaking mis- obso- with workers surplus these all with done be to What’s 42 So an incredible half the workforce, give or take, is in danger percent of total U.S. employment is at high at is U.S.totalemployment of percent 47 702 occupations de- - TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 153 - - training. Just as we have special types of loans that are intended to Of course, not all educational decisions should be driven by em- by driven be should decisions educational all not course, Of The second mistake is the tacit assumption that firstyou go enlight through is issues these of both addressing to path The ened economic policy. The obvious question regarding the retraining retraining the regarding question obvious The policy. economic ened The equally ob going to pay. with ofobsolete skills workers is who’s workers the most: benefit the to stand who ones the is answer vious themselves. But how can down-on-their-luck unemployed workers find and payfor training that matches their abilities and is ofreal employers? to value encourage and support we homeownership, need to develop a - sys tem of vocational training loans that bear a similar relationship to the targeted asset—in this case, employment rather than houses. When you get a mortgage, the government or the bank that origi- nates it doesn’t pay off the loan—you do. If a problem arises, such as your house burns down or you simply can’t make the payments, because most down payment, and lose only your away can walk you ployment prospects. Learning and training are not the same thing. There’s plenty of value in raising well-rounded, historically aware, articulate, thoughtful citizens. But beyond a core of basics—which in my opinion doesn’t extend to memorizing rows of the periodic table or subjectperforming partial matter should differentials—the be aimed at equipping students with useful and marketable skills. not vacational training, on vocational should focus We This made sense go you get and a when done, are job. you to school, when jobs and skills changed on a generational timescale, but it does not These labor in fast-moving two markets. today’s phases of life need to be strongly interleaved, or at least the opportunity for skill acquisition mustnew be explicit and omnipresent. TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 154 to participate in the program. On the flip side, penalties can be as- be can penalties side, flip the On program. the in participate to them incents months), which six first the for position the for taxes payroll on (say, relief break tax a get can promises their fulfill who mortgages.Employersjob secure to able are who people of number the on limit natural a is available,there jobs has it as sponsorships these of many as only issue skills,appropriatecan with workers ing time period. able reason- some within position the for you like someone hire to need have)realwill a (or has it that intent of good-faithletter a issuing is happen. In effect, you are applying for a to likely is this well goes all if that expectation reasonablethere’s a though job, particular that take to promising aren’t you and you, ticular property. But in this case, the employer isn’t promising to hire par a on mortgage a for apply you as for—just working already are you one the employer—perhapspotential a of sponsorship the cure se- to have you mortgage, job a get To effective. more or equally be could that variations many are there though work, might this way one least Here’s at mortgage. job a this simplicity,Forcall let’s the current market valuethe housebefore of fundingamortgage. margin of safety). This is why lenders require an appraisal supporting some with loan the cover to enough least, at worth, (or paid being price the havealso worth is property the incentivean that ensureto have every incentive to be sure you are a solid credit risk. Both parties monthly payments painful. is certainly You,the lender,to in addition the make won’t) (or can’t you because house a abandoning Now, itself. property the is default of event the in lender the to provided are mortgages “‘nonrecourse”security only the that loans, meaning Because the employer, who is presumably having trouble find- loan.training vocational a to apply can principles similar And future job, the and employer -

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- - 25 150 percent of the poverty level established by the - govern Enrollments at Enrollments the institutions training will be sized naturally For For the potential employee, the key is that the loan is paid What if the training isn’t successful, the job isn’t available training—possibly training—possibly even one that they themselves provide—will target skills. the needed to the available pool of jobs in the because market, they are largely incented also are They programs. fund their loans to on these reliant to stay keenly focused on the relevant skills; otherwise the employ sessed on employers who issue these letters of intent willy-nilly and willy-nilly issue who intent of letters these employers on sessed don’t ultimately follow through, within some statistical bounds. A simple way to accomplish this is to require employers to post a modest “bond,” which is released only when the position is filled. Employers would also be required to certify that a particular course of er(s) will not approve the training as satisfactory for their needs. As a As needs. their for satisfactory as training the approve not will er(s) there consequence, is no need for formal government accreditation self-regulating. in effect, is, system of these programs—the back only out of earned income—it is secured by future paychecks. Payments would be limited to some percentage of say earnings, percent of net in pay, a similar spirit to the way mortgage lenders enforce a payment-to-income ratio for their loans. And there needs monthly example, For problems. of case in relief built-in certain be to payments are capped or deferred if the net take-home below pay falls payments income, earned from solely paid is loan the Because ment. worker the if accrue) may interest (though suspended effectively are and reamor the loan is automatically reason, any for is unemployed tized. trainee the or either), available is employment suitable other no (and simply decides not to work? As in the case of a home mortgage, TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 156 at unwanted or inappropriate jobs, people can apply their newly ac- newly their inappropriatejobs,apply unwantedor can at people remain to workers and business mini-education own their operate to companieseffectively forcespositions, which trainee low-paid of servitude indentured implicit the of worker.Instead the and ployer em- the both for advantage great to position, or employer specific the from training the decouples partially it that is advantage main The model. internship or apprenticeship historical the of version to mention muchmore effectivenot today. is than it process of skill acquisition and retraining both practical and humane, the render can policies,we public appropriate through trainers and lenders,employers, for incentives economic proper the creating by quiring certain graduation rates and employment prospects. employment and rates graduation certain quiring re- institutions, for-profit by practices abusive on stand stronger a taken has government the recentlyinducements, though other and ratingsthrough job better a do to colleges cajoling on havefocused problem this address to efforts existing results.Most the for ability account little money,with loan government collecting of purpose fortrainingfor-profitinadequate at createdcolleges primary the for afford ill can they debts with victims innocent saddles cases many plement the largely broken current system of student loans, which in mortgage—through regulations and policies to substitute for or sup- job instrument—the financial of type new a create to is idea basic fine. just works it today,and managed is risk mortgage way the That’s unemployment. for account to period grace a afterincome, earned loan, the say, of portion a repaying for responsible still is trainee the percent (a typical down payment on a house), regardless of of regardless house), a on payment down typical (a percent 20 The concept of a job mortgage is a modernized free-market modernized a is mortgage job a of concept The There are many details that need to be fleshed out, but the but out, fleshed be to need that details many are There 43 But But -

TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 157 47 , 1955, in which he draws a distinc- For example, Chicago-based Education Eq- 46 45 44 With this perspective, let’s return briefly With let’s to this perspective, the challengesmy And indeed, today there are some tentative private-sector My My specific concept of a job mortgagemight be new, but was he view, my In encountered. has Nastor Emmie employee former utterly failed by our educational in His system. business B.S. admin- steps in that direction. tion between “general tion education “general between for “vocational and or citizenship” professional He education.” recommends that the latter should be subject to analysis as an similar investment, to physical and assets, thatpolicies be government put in (as place investment to facilitate opposed to subsidies) in such training. As he put “The it, individual would agree in return to pay to the government in each future year x percent of his earnings in excess of y dollars for each $1,000 that and a highly one desirable An if alternative, it. . . he gets in this way. directed the toward is arrangements to private stimulate is feasible, same end.” the basic approach certainly isn’t. Milton Friedman, leader of the Chicago school of economics, wrote an essay entitled “The Role of Government in Education” in quired skills where they are most highly valued while employers can can employers while most valued highly are they where skills quired draw from an expanded pool of highly This skilled is workers. noth- in play supposed to is money that role lubricating than the more ing occupational treat to seem we why me to mystery a It’s economy. the some like sortthan other skills assets, differently ofbarter medieval system, at great cost to society. If major-league sports figures can do the person average the can’t why earnings, future their securitize same? uity, Inc., is making income-linked loans to students entering certain entering loans students to income-linked making is Inc., uity, albeit on a small scale so far. programs, approved TAKE THIS JOB AND AUTOMATE IT 158 of graduating. of months six within employment full-time secure those of half than less years,and six within graduate University’sstudents State cisco Fran - San of half than for.Reportedly,pay less to prepared are actually market job local the in employers that skills the providing of terms in least value, at practical little of be to seem would istration selves for productive andfruitfullives. our even and young our prepare we way the at look fresh a take to us compels advances, technological continual by propelled tem, ecosys- labor our of evolutionaccelerating do. The we changes,but habitat of out way their think to intelligence native the have don’t tem would quicklycome into equilibrium. school turn out qualified candidates, it stands to reason that the sys- the employers,local see of to haveeverydesiremotivationwho and its classrooms the university had to the meet collective expectations dents are willing to attend and pay (or take out loans to pay). If to fill stu- as long it, as fix less this,much monitor to goodwill than other incentiveNonetheless,little school.) has universitythe the by lished benefits for all. conveysurely will resources natural our with along resourcefulness less youtailpipe.to be the standing happen by Recycling our natural prosperity, fueled by innovation, are beautiful things to behold—un- of engines The change. climate of that to comparable attention of ecosystemlabor global our to potentialthe damagedeserveslevel a are,greenhousegases surelyas as economicatingand progress just Excess workers and obsolete skills are a by-product of acceler of by-product area Excessskills obsolete workersand animals Most bears. aren’t we bear, but a is warming Global 48 (I can find no official statistics on this subject pub subject this on statistics official no find can (I - - - 9. The Fix Is In This page intentionally left blank t’s Super Bowl LIX (2025). The Seattle Seahawks take to the field, having won the coin toss. Their new rookie starter approaches the ball and gives it a powerful boot. To everyone’s amazement, the ball flies perfectly through the air and crosses dead center at the opposing team’s goalposts, for the first ever kickoff field goal in NFL history.1 The crowd goes wild! After two more downs, the Seahawks regain possession of the ball on the fifty-yard line. Instead of the usual scrimmage to run the ball down the field, they attempt another field goal. The ball sails perfectly through the goalposts once again. Three points! And again. And again. The crowd grows restless, because the game isn’t proceeding quite as expected. After scoring thirty consecutive field goals without throwing so much as a single pass, the Seahawks take the trophy as the crowd boos them off the field. Everyone knows that something’s gone terribly wrong, but Ithey’re not quite sure what. Theories abound that the Seahawks’ new kicker has somehow been genetically enhanced; that Jesus has finally returned and he lives in Seattle; that the whole event is some sort of freak statistical accident due to global warming. It soon emerges the team has fielded the first ever lightweight place-kicking intelligent shoe. It meets all the existing NFL regulations, but it guides the kicker’s foot to exactly the optimal position. Freed from having to aim, the player simply swings his leg as hard as he can, and all that energy drives the ball 50 percent further than normal to precisely where it is supposed to go. A loud and shrill public debate ensues, and people fall into

161 THE FIX IS IN 162 supposed to stand for. An SOS (Save Our Sneakers) benefit concert, benefit Sneakers) Our (Save SOS for.An stand to supposed is RIT what out figure quite can one no but “IntegRITy”campaign, average. about goals field successful of number the keep to proceeds game the as narrowed automatically be should them use that teams for goalposts opposing the but allowed, be should shoes the say They behind. further fall perpetually others while advantage enduring an get teams some see to want don’t also they but progress,vent donors. affluent for country the acrossBall” formalfund-raisers “Footstage irons. leg They in field the around stumbling teams showing ads TV in innovators” the not bureaucrats, the “Kick slogan the promotes tions campaign by the nonprofit Americans for Freedomof Footwear rela- public well-funded A rules. the of changing any to due passed sur being from records world respective their protect to seeking tank studies underwritten by a murky network of wealthy ex-players think- sports-analysis Washington several tout They worse. things in founded was NFL the since changes rule that’s survivalthe fittest, of just soit’s tough luck. just shoe,intelligent own its developaffordto can’t team a be.If should they as are things technologies, similar develop to permitted are teams all and field, playing level a literallyit’s as long As spirit. tive the teams want to innovate, we shouldn’t interfere with their inven- fine ever they since can they as remember are. and just are perfect If regulations. and just workedhaverules the They current the of sanctity in believe conservatives The camps. opinionated highly four loeki cnotu o P frs trs apublic-interest starts firms PR of consortium loose-knit A pre- to want don’t Theyfairness. on focused are liberals The the of all or most that suspicious are conservatives fact, In ae ny made only have 1920 -

THE FIX IS IN 163 - The fundamentalists think anything new should be banned. The progressives take a different They view. believe that the If pressed, sensible conservatives, liberals, and - fundamental featuring featuring familiar do-gooder musical stars, is organized to awareness of the raise problem and collect funds to install the - compli around stadiums and schools in goalposts electronic high-tech cated butthe world, it turns out that no one with less than de- a master’s the million, $100 over Raising them. work to how out figure can gree firms proudly announce that thiswill cover an estimated .5 percent football fields. of all qualified They romanticize a mostly fanciful past, when life was simple and wonderful before it was corrupted by modern Theinfluences. more extreme among them believe that for good measure, all should players be required to play without shoes at all, the way tended. Leveraging a God well-organized network of in- church groups, the outraged bus They campaign. Boot” the “Ban a start fundamentalists senior citizens to participate- in each strident profes before protests sional football game, urging a public boycott, after which they - re coupons. and drink admission tickets complimentary ceive purpose of the game is to serve the public interest skill-based by contest staging that a entertains a broad audience while inspir ing athletes everywhere to do their best. If rules have to - occasion ally be tweaked in response to new developments to achieve NFL’s the of duty primary the this that’s fact, In okay. perfectly that’s goal, elected officers. ists grudgingly They agree with may on differ why the progressives. things got messed up in the gripe, firstTheir game. place,the in back butfun the put to done be must something now that have, they workable a putforward to yet have progressives is that the however, THE FIX IS IN 164 and Uganda. and Mozambique modern-day in those as same the about flation, were in States United the in agriculture in working population the averagepercentage of the and income that consider skeptical,you’re If exceeded. is threshold wealth minimal certain a after wealth of level overall the than satisfaction lower with lated United States and studying their causes, so I won’t regale you with you regale won’t I causes,so their studying and States United the in wealth and income of disparities increasing the umenting themselves of aswretchedlythought poor. factors. known other all for controlling after evenminimized, are society in reported level of happiness is highest when the economic disparities time work, we’rethe wrong moving in direction. part- supplemental for boards job scanning is pastime national the if but double, can Tesladealerships of count grow,the can product domestic gross rise,the to continue things. averagecan income The right the measuring aren’tlives, we unhappy and impoverished ing lead- are people more if but abundance, and wealth aggregate of benchmarks statistical up driving on, motor can prosperity of gines suffermasses theythe want while misery.anything silent in en- The live in a world where members of a small cadre of superrich can have to habitual—wants poor,lazy,diligent,adventurous,us—rich,or of interest,wayaround.public other the the None serverather than to forthings just with the heck of it,the purpose of our economybut is teach highschoolplayerspublic educationto to kickbetter. how idea minimally to acceptable everyone, than other investing more in eea poiet cdmc hv set hi cres doc- careers their spent have academics prominent Several eea eooi suis ae on ta te vrl self- overall the that found have studies economic Several tinker should we think don’t I progressive. economic an I’m 2 In particular, the range of incomes is more strongly corre- strongly more is incomes of range the particular,In 3 I doubt that most people in Thomas Jefferson’stime Thomas in people most that doubt I , adjusted for infor 1800,adjusted THE FIX IS IN 165

- - - 70 10 in acres. acres. 8 nothing. acres, 360 acres, acres acres 1,000 , 1970, these Imagine a with town 5 acres, 18 up acres, from 80 percent increase in total acres each. The 3 peculiar acres each. thing acres had been added to the town’s town’s the to added been had acres 800 The short story is that since the end of World War , 1970, the fivewealthiest families owned an average 4 acres each—quite a spread. A visitor to the town would would town the to visitor A spread. a each—quite acres 3 , an additional an 2010, A brief analogy may be helpful to get a feel for the nature and nature the for helpful be get analogyto brief feel A a may A visitor returning to the town after a forty-year absence ob By 20 percent of all the town’s productive farmland. In short, the 30 acres of fruit trees each, while the twenty poorest families serves serves a Once remarkable transformation. a humdrum collection of it now stores, workaday sports upscale establishments with the lat est luxury The goods. town diner has gone out of business because II the economy country’s has grown fairly with steadily, a few blips (most notably in the past fifteen years). Before about gains were shared equitably between rich and poor. Since that time, equitably shared gains between were rich and poor. nearly all the gains gone have to however, leaving the the rich, poor behind. of as its consequences. as well this shift scope statistics statistics here. , fully half the town is struggling to survive on less than less on survive to struggling is town the half fully 1970, the richest in family town now owns conspicuously, More or additional land went disproportionately to the already rich, to the of half the got fortunate town less the pointlittle where to

one hundred families whose primary source of income is income of source primary whose families hundred one of In orchards. of only owned see a typical assortment of establishments in such the town center, and haberdashery. shoe store, as a diner, productive productive farmland—a remarkable wealth. But the wealthiest five families now owned an average of average an owned now families five wealthiest Butthe wealth. poor the many—while as twice than each—more trees fruit of acres est twenty families still owned only is that while the average family now farms THE FIX IS IN 166 a distribution of income roughly like that of of that like roughly income of distribution a goal.a set to helpful Youyourpick can favorite, target to is mine but ahugfrom Mickeyget orakissfrom aprincess.” U.S.A. Street Main of middle the kids,When poor,down and rich can right walk again once can people ordinary when day a of dream I only.people ...rich for be to park(s) his wantednever Disney“Walt reads: InsideTheMagic.net on posted comment poignant rather A hour, you your get own guide and to unlimited Fastpassaccess lines. around added was neyland nomic realities. As far as I can determine,the VIP Tour option for Dis- eco - defy can Kingdom Magic the even not But Disneyland. at lines (public) schools, same ate at the same restaurants, the and waited in the same to went mostly people that, than Other set. and-white black-a affordonly could you meant colorTV, poor a being had and to fixit. and we need theyweekly canafford. staples the bulk in a up to drive pick they Walmartawayfifty to miles stead In- stores. these visit never residents the of most that is see can’t the townspeople must be so pleased! Unfortunately, what the visitor become an haute couture boutique. What beautiful has haberdashery pumps,the designer showcase and now galoshes display to used that town.windows shop in families twentyThe est wealthi- the by exclusively almost frequentedrestaurant, gourmet a stands place its in and out, eat to afford could people fewer far average, as the bottom the average,as on much, as times ten about home brought households of percent To address the scourge of increasing economic inequality,it’seconomic increasing of scourge the Toaddress you that meant rich being when remember to I’menough old disgrace,public a arestandards living in disparities Enormous percent, as opposed to the twenty times twenty the to opposed percent,as 20 . For an additional $ 315–$380 additional an For 2010. , when the top the when 1970, improvements— per 5

THE FIX IS IN 167 - 9 1918, , 1968, - “Home As far back as back far As 7 6 8 The motivations for the numerous housing initiatives in sup- As President Johnson said in his proposal to create the Depart the create to proposal his in said Johnson President As Recent American history is full of examples of the government government the of examples of full is history American Recent ownership ownership is a cherished dream and achievement of most Ameri- Butlow-income itbeen cans. out has always of of reach the nation’s Owning a home can and responsibility increase families. outstake a some- has home a owns who man The community. his in place man’s it.” protectto reason of and good thing and preserve be proud to ment of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in when the Department U.S. of Labor started a campaign called Own this promoted have governments state and federal Home, Own Your goal with of and regulation directfinancialtax institutions, policies, support homeowners. for port to say the ofofMany least. - these goal this mixed, are pro lofty grams had surreptitious objectives such as subsidizing the housing creating construction enshrining industry, mostjobs or, remarkably,

- wel social promoting of interest the in goal high-level a establishing putting fare, some sensible policies in place, and making it happen. One ongoing example is the push to encourage homeownership in sense, not common mention to time, over Studies States. United the suggest that communities where people own their own homes are investment. to attractive and stable, more safer, we see today. Not great, but Not close I’m great, enough work. for government we see today. not at all thatadvocating we return to the economic and social policies of that age, which arguably weren’t really helping even back then. Marginal tax rates were way too high, racial inequality was water rampant, and air were far more polluted than they are today (at least in the United States), and tobacco companies promoted their products children. to THE FIX IS IN 168 working lifeworking ended, you straits.weredire financial in useful your as soon squalor.As in living meant old getting people, most that,for be to elderly.used the It of lot the easing of goal ing general shows it similarimprovements. in but purity, of measures different the of because complex more is quality Water controls. central and rules hodgepodge of system uses market forces to allocate resources efficiently, replacing a crude it because approach rational and flexible more much a is tion.This sions trading, better known as cap and trade, has begun to gain trac- recently,advances.More emis- technological vehicles), and as (such manufacturers equipment for standards fines), levying by (mainly (Which, incidentally, wasn’t considered healthrisk.) asignificant largest city was equivalentto twosmoking packs of cigarettes a day. nation’sthe in living that was then back wisdom conventional the and orange, brownish a was sky afternoon the of color natural the percent. a remarkable a until such dioxide, as bon classified not exceptionnotable the car of pollutants(with air major measures of (EPA)Agency Protectionronmentalin foundedwas Envi- the Since States. United the in pollution water and air of tion segregation. occupy nearly two out of every of threetwo out occupy homes. nearly by increased today,homeownership to suffering is more than altruism—that could be you in a few years,few a in you be could altruism—that than more is suffering elders’ our easing death. premature But to significantly contributed In the financial domain, the United States has a long-stand- a has States United the domain, financial the In polluters of regulation to due was improvement this of Most Another area with considerable success has been the reduc- the been has success considerable with area Another 12 s, I thought thought mid-1960s,I the in YorkNew City in up Growing 10 percent, even though the GDP has increased by increased has GDP the though percent,even 68 Nonetheless, the country the got job done. From ) have been reduced by reducedhave been 2009) percent, so that owners that so percent, 40 11 1970,aggregate 13 This no doubt doubt no This 1900 65 - THE FIX IS IN 169

- - 1850 , and low-cost, 1935 or can expect to live to about seventy-five years old— years seventy-five about to live expect to can 2000 As my nonagenarian mother ninety proudly is remarks, the 14 The rise in life expectancy is due to many factors but largely factors is due is expectancy many to life in rise The So the time has arrived for us to establish sensible policies to But the biggest Here the win meas- has been in public health. new seventy! new the result of improvements in medical sanitation, the development gov systems, sewer and water separate to efforts public ofvaccines, ernment initiatives such as the creation of the Centers for Disease cessation, (smoking campaigns education health public and Control, example). for reduce income Our inequality. initial instinct may be to tackle this challenge by first determining itsroot cause(s) and addressing each in most turn, notably Butunemployment. I suspect that would sim- pitting those who ply blame us embroil in the endless poor debates, for their own failure to thrive against those who blame needless government spending and regulatory interference against those who see those same regulations as hopelessly biased toward the free medical care (Medicare and Medicaid) were major steps forward forward steps major were Medicaid) and (Medicare care medical free in addressing this problem. In addition to these mandatory public savings programs, there are a myriad of U.S. government policies that encourage saving for retirement by sequestering assets into (IRAs). accounts individual retirement such as personal accounts, ure is clear and personal: a male born in the United States in could expect to live on average to be about thirty-eight years old; in born one whatever that means, because he would only be fifteen years mor old infant of reduction a from resulted increase the of (Much today. if you’re lucky enough to live that long. Our Social Security system, adopted shortly after the Great Depression in tality.) THE FIX IS IN 170 for instance. I wasthe quoted in (Me, working. for paid getting aren’t they that just working, aren’t labor force,” which includes retirees. This doesn’t these mean people the in “not calls bureau the what is group other The unemployed. being of definition Statistics Labor of Bureau U.S. official the that’s Indeed, one. find can’t and job a for looking are who those are first to find one.over try they it’s while But theonly way. not day’shonest work,them to givetide to or people least at something an for wage decent a earn to opportunity an has everyone that ing ensur aroundrevolve solutions proposed most money.forSo work to is one get to way obvious most the live,and to income an needs Everyonebe. to has income that mean doesn’t that but future, the in scarcer be may income.Jobs separately:and consider jobs should work. hard and taking risk for rewards the reducing by spirit”“entrepreneurialthe more on social programs. Others would counter that this will impede how pleasedGodiswithyou.of measure numerical a is income your believe who those against rich the investment bankers of Goldman Sachs, which Sachs, Goldman of bankers investment the of view dim similarly a take recipients. Occupymight WallStreeters “I used to be retired,be to used “I . . . I’mnow unemployed.”) just which employed 8millionpeople. almost program, WPA Roosevelt’s Delano Franklin reprising ticket, the is thing that smells likemoney.”smells that thing any into funnel blood its jamming relentlessly humanity, of face the around wrapped squid vampire “greata as to referred mously n at tee r to rus f epe ihu jb. The jobs. without people of groups two are there fact, In we things two conflate approaches these that propose I But spend and taxes raise should we argue likely would Some 15 Some would point the finger at layabout welfare layabout at finger the point would Some 16 Perhaps a new federalprogramnew jobs Perhapsa New New York Times in 17 2003 as quipping 18 Rolling Stone Stone Rolling I’d think to like fa - - - THE FIX IS IN 171 - - 19 While 23 , carpen- 1791, 2011 shows an , this short 1937, On the surface, this is 1950 to 20 The federal government firstgot in- 22 They had virtually no free time at all. In In all. at time free no virtually had They 21 1916 with the which Adamson setAct, the standard work Here are some facts some facts thatare suggest Here working people aren’t many You don’t You have to have a fortune to live off your assets. It all pundits For years, have lamented that the median household We We tend to cast a skeptical eye on the jobless—unless they ened workday became part of the Fair Labor Standards Act. day as eight hours, but only for railroad workers. By workers. but railroad only for as eight day hours, volved in volved this trend working fewer toward hours is continuing through today, data from Reserve Federal quite gradual. it’s an argument about increasing income inequality, but it glosses over an argument about inequality, income increasing an important detail: how does the average family feel about that? If people had the opportunity to work more and make more money, is? it as balance work/life their with satisfied they are Or they? would the with Starting to. want or to need don’t they because simply more long-term historical trend, you might be surprised to learn that in the most nineteenth people century, worked about sixty to seventy week. a hours ters in Philadelphia actually went on strike to demand a reduction in reduction a demand to strike on went actually Philadelphia in ters hours to a ten-hour workday. Just is enough? much how live. to want you depends on how income in the United States has stagnated as even productivity and total income have been rising relentlessly. I’m I’m a productive member of making society, a butcontribution, I’m by me. is fine which not a paycheck, collecting No celebrated. often it’s okay—indeed, Then it’s a lot have of money. an girl, rich idle an than other anything be to Hilton Paris expects one of array dizzying a despite image art, polished high has thata she to - and record TV and movie appearances, product endorsements, gigs, $6.5 million in 2005 alone. earning her an estimated ing contracts, THE FIX IS IN 172 cent. thirty-four paidlaboraweek. hoursof traryto public perception,the average working person puts in about than in than ber of working-age adults in households dropped by about about by dropped households in adults working-age of ber number of factors. Unemployment in Unemployment factors. of number in income household median the Bureau, Census U.S. the to According basis. household havetwiceto asmuchmoney spendafter inflation. that,by than more since double of inflation-adjusted roundhavetheir average short seen incomes just soared. To pick a single example, U.S. males employed full-time year- year. per worked hours total in reduction percent 11 total. in less work to decide simply not) or (related couples many holds), when they work, so when those benefits are shared (that is, money in house- more making are people that is explanation plausible one inal increase was increase inal approximately rose adjusted) U.S.(inflation workera of wage net However,median the 1.25 eragedroppedhousehold don’t work—people do. And the number of adults working in the av unchanged, at $51,758. at unchanged, percent.) 29 30 The number of working adults in a household is affected by a affectedby is household a in adults working of number The a on it at look you when interesting really gets story this But have incomes and wages real hours, working to contrast In That’sthe story, of part no doubt what’s but the rest? At least . This is a little tricky to calculate,average1995.to the tricky num- little but a is This 28 So what could account for this discrepancy? Households discrepancy? this for account could what So 1955. Workingincomessoar their have women seen percent less the cumulate inflation rate of rate inflation cumulate the less percent 65 percent. Full-time employed people literally people employed Full-time percent. 138 percent during the same period. (The nom- (The period. same the during percent 14 By $51,719. was 1995 27 (The (The percent during that period, that during percent 8 from figure is adjusted for inflation.) for adjusted is figure 1995 25 was 2012 , it was virtually virtually was it 2012, percent higher percent 2.5 26 24 Today, con- per 2.5 to to 1.36 51 - - THE FIX IS IN 173 - Consider Consider - the exam 31 So where does the tacit assumption come from that every This can-do attitude of is bigger-faster-stronger so deeply in- Whether Whether people make this decision because it’s too much of born son goes born son goes bed. to able-bodied, red-blooded American who can work is going to so do as much as he or she possibly can? It’s a reflection ofa skewed concept of or progress, at least wishful thinking, that is baked into our government policies. Many people believe that our legislators tax, and borrow, spend more than they should. I have no informed opinion on this. But the historical way we have addressed our - eco nomic problems is to grow our way out of What them. looks like a mountain of national debt today will seem far less daunting when the bill comes due if only we can continue to expand our economy each If year. it still proves to be a problem, we can fall back on ad- cost the so supply, money the expanding by rate inflation the justing of repayment is The more manageable. government uses this same receipts with recipients Security Social supportsretired it when logic because problem a become shortly will (Which workers. current from the relevant population of workers is trending down relative to the the moment.) for of retirees population grained in our American mind-set that benchmarks of countervailing ple of my former employee Emmie His Nastor. biggest objection to gladly would He not but was job his hours. pay the (compulsory) the accept less pay if it means he can reliably get home his before new a hassle to look for more work or a better job or because they just to prefer spend their time doing other things is really just two sides else something do orto work find decision to Their coin. ofsame the with their time is a rational decision based on the vagaries of their local labor market and how to they prefer live. THE FIX IS IN 174 $625,000perhousehold. of for its for $600,000 proximately for Bureau Census the and Reserve Federal the from data Combiningaverage. on are, really States United the in people the wealthy how at look today. to need retirewe First be? everyone’sincome would household what Just magically to were everyone Suppose hypothetical. equitable waythe problemtake and will care itself. of more a in growth future distribute to need simply anyone,fromwe to reducing income inequality. We don’ttake to need awayanything approach problems—offerspractical economic a our of wayout our level,their freetime andsatisfactionthe price is their job. if with class may not be as anxious as we might assume to climb to the next paycheckall, at storiedmiddle the in those picnic.no certainly is But make the same decisions. Living from paycheck to paycheck, or on no even aspersonalsatisfaction goes up. playto rocka in guitar agent band, incomedisposable may godown estate real a as job her or his quits value.someone economic When take care of the kids, he or she falls off the government’s measures of and home stay find. to to decides difficult beliefsarea parent When end of of end Security. Total fund assets were trust Social Security the trillion at $3 Social count doesn’t that furnishings,possessions. But personal and cars,like assets excludesnonproductive It debt. all subtractingafter estate, real and funds,retirement privatebonds, and counts,stocks How much retirement income would this generate? The S&P generate?The this would income retirement much How o nesad o ti cn ok lts tr wt a simple a with start let’s work, can this how understand To this But time-tested government principle—that we can grow would incomes smallest the with those that say to not is This 2013, , the average U.S. household has a net worth of ap- of worth net a has averageU.S.household the 2012, 33 , for a grand total grand a for$25,000 another about adds which residents. 2.6 32 That includes bank ac- bank includes That THE FIX IS IN 175 - But only 35 6 percent (Not annually. Assuming held you half of 34 7 percent. 11 percent for the past fiftyyears, while 6 percent to the each wealth, aggregate house- U.S. 9 percent per year. If you wanted to reserve enough to whatever the household might (optionally) might household the whatever to addition in Another way to arrive at these figures isto lookat how the Applying trillion, trillion, $37 under just was market bond U.S. the of value the 2011, ing those in the next generation an enormous head start on their own retirement. (Except for any estate taxes, of course, which you United the in assets in $625,000 with today died you if owe wouldn’t States because of the lifetime exemption.) In if fact, the population - mem Europe), of much in itis (as shrinking itwere or notgrowing is bers of the next generation wouldn’t need to add to this portfolio, need at all. work to mightwhich is never they say to financial marketsvalue all publiccompanies and bonds.At the end of with U.S. stocks at $21 trillion, for a total of $58 trillion. a portfolio in stocks and half in bonds, the average return would have have would return average the bonds, in half and stocks in portfolio a been around money in this portfolio to compensate for the historical rate of inflation (3 percent), you could spend about accounting for capital gains If if taxes, this any. doesn’t match your current note mileage, that the inflationrate and typical investment the at ranges historical the below well are bonds, for least at returns, moment.) infla- with up keep still and year per $40,000 about spend could hold That’s tion. earn, and it assumes that people leave their entire estate intact to their heirs when they die rather than spending it themselves, giv about two-thirds of that so use is let’s $39 owned tril- domestically, ten-year U.S. Treasury bills, considered one of the safest investments of one investments the safest considered bills, Treasury U.S. ten-year nearly in averaged the world, , a 500, reasonable provided proxy for an equity the - an markets, U.S. nual return of more than THE FIX IS IN 176 to $ to homes and subtracting mortgage debt of $13 trillion, that works out rns hsi ossetwt the with consistent is This trends. today,as years forty in wealthycurrent as on twice based almost be will States United the in person averagesay, the to is percent. That be would years forty in person per wealth real in increase total stead, we can focus on new ways to distribute future gains. But how? In- sailed. already has ship inequality—that income of problem the in dent serious a make to today’swealth redistribute to need don’t we But address. to looking we’re problem precise households—the all by equitably owned isn’t wealth the because now right anything distribution of assets isn’t broad enough. These averages don’t mean the that reason simple the correct—for All nothing. doing around sitting just $40,000 earning are people most like feel doesn’t surely It there. out bloodbath a It’sground. losing are people Most gling. day’s dollars. bad. Not annual an to income,household purely from investments, equates to- in $75,000 about of This opinion. person’s one just that’s but underestimate— gross a is this think I chapters, previous the from expect might you as earlier.And noted I as years, forty past the in approximately of inflation, afterperson, per rate growth GDP a shows years thirty differencethis estimatethe $625,000above. between and the of portion a for accounts probably which individuals, and nies privatelyvalueall companies,the of held include compato - loans or lion. (Contrary to popular perception, China owns only about about only owns China perception, popular to (Contrarylion. cent cent of the national debt.) per household. per $450,000 about or trillion, 51 u srl ti rs pcue a’ b rgt Pol ae strug- are People right. be can’t picture rosy this surely But That’s now, but let’s talk about the future. Data for the last last the for Data future. the about talk let’s but now,That’s percent. 1.6 36 38 Adding the $25 trillion of value stored in Assuming this trend is to continue,to the is trend this Assuming percent growth experienced growth percent 80 37 But that doesn’t that But per 8 90 -

THE FIX IS IN 177 - . 2013. Both We can put We in place to incentives economic broaden the - own To date, the U.S. government grants most tax policies and To understand how this works, consider two hypothetical Both companies have made tremendous investments in au- - own the notfor are incentives The bonds. and stocks for base ership We bonds. the of issuers and corporations the for but themselves ers can put their self-interests to work for the rest of us, as we do other aspects of our capitalist in economy. economic incentives (often called “loopholes”) to encourage - corpo of cost the reduce to or investments, of certaintypes make to rations These bonds). municipal of in case tax-free the (as money borrowing same techniques can be used to spread the future ownership of the assets necessary work. supportto or reduced retirement future corporations in the same business: operating online super stores stores that sell groceries to consumers with guaranteed delivery within three hours, regardless of “My location: Mart” and “People’s Both Provisions.” are run by talented and well-compensated man- but agement My Martteams, is owned by the ten superrich heirs of People’s while Martin, Marty industry of baron deceased recently the publicly traded shares are owned Provisions’ directly or indirectly by 100 million people. tomation, reducing their workforces to the bare minimum possible with current technology. They have become so efficient that the revenue per employee is in the tens of millions of dollars. For - com one Walmart, parison, of the most efficientretail companies in the world, generated $213,000 in revenue per employee in companies companies are extremely profitable, delivering nearly $100 billion in annual profits,compared to Walmart’s $17 billion For today. My lucky ofthe each for year a billion $10 outnearly to works that Mart, THE FIX IS IN 178 ish it upabit. ish it areowned. Luckily, shelf,the offtakeone can off,we it dust pol- and assets broadly how just of governmentmeasure new a is inequality holder rights, compensation practices, quality. and audit share- structure, board covering governance corporate of measure Ratings). Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) issues a widely used Fitch and Poor’s, & Standard (Moody’s, services private respected well- three by rated are bonds government and corporate of risks Administration) crash-test rating. In the financial sphere, the relative SafetyTraffic Highway (National NHTSA and ratings fuel-economy costs. operating and consumption energy of measures standardized with televisions, and refrigerators,washers, as such products, consumer of sorts all on stickers EnergyGuide places program Star Energy the instance, For decisions. good make to need we information the us it’stimes other but maketo consumersintendedbetter us giving by policy,inform to used is this Sometimes statistics. publish and lect col - is well does government federal the thing One it. measure to sense,that it’s delivering far to society. more benefit In arts. the of patrons and playboys of family single a to opposed as public, the of fraction significant a of interests financial the serving also is People’sProvisions But share. market their increase can they customers,areboth motivatedand highly continueto improveto so their to services and delivering goods of job terrific a aredoing Both year forthe U.S.to nearlyone-third $1,000 of population. heirs. But its rival People’s Provisions is sending dividend checks each 39 What we need to lay the groundwork for addressing income addressing for groundwork the lay to need we What Before we can addressthis inequity, we need an objective way interest? public the serving better is company which Now, By law, the window stickers on new cars must show the EPAthe show must cars new law,on stickersBy window the THE FIX IS IN â 179

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ou is est. adult in doesn a to in y Mutability put But o doesn As friends each has bunch the a reau ibly In cient The ership, most sor THE FIX IS IN 180 ht euig r lmntn al oprt txs ol increase would wealth. overall taxes corporate all eliminating or reducing that and income inequality? car.stickernew window a the on reduceto wealth it use we do How like bonds and stocks on slap can we number a just is this But PBI). (its asset financial a of utility public the measureobjective of an got of that approximately distribution (income goal a this discussion. PBI scale from scale PBI the words,make other integer—in nearest the to it round and 100, index,fit or PBI. For easeof use, let’s from it subtract to applied individual assets such as a stock or bond,the public bene- public. But suppose you were to scale taxes, or give tax breaks, to breaks, tax give or taxes, scale to were you suppose But public. generalwealthy, morethe stockholders not the exclusively make or nominal owners). nominal the to opposed (as owners beneficial the for it compute to complex entirely for hisown amusement, would have 0. of aPBI However, Jackson’salmost Michael built Ranch,Neverlandhe which of PBI a have everyone, by use for available are which parks, held Public Provisions have might to 30. closer aPBI everyone else,the PBI would be toclose in count you when fortune, his of shares equal have heirs wealthy super Martin’sten Marty patriarch the though above.Even scribed highly concentrated. Let’s start with corporate tax policies. Some studies suggest suggest studies Some policies. tax corporate with start Let’s Now we can get to the meat of the problem. We’ve established The PBI, as defined here, isn’t perfect. For example, it may be may it example, For perfect. isn’t here, defined as PBI, The national like assets government-owned public sense, a In de- corporations hypothetical two the for PBI the Consider 43 to to 0 The problem, of course, is that this would mostly would this that is course, of problem, The 42 But it’s probably adequate for the purposes of of purposes the for adequate probably it’s But , where 100, means very equitable, and equitable, very means 100 0. However,the more widely ), and we’ve and 1970), 1, by multiply it 100. is 0 - THE FIX IS IN 181 15 percent, while 35 percent. That would Now, Now, how would the stockholders of My Mart be likely to But People’s Provisions isn’t standing still. Seeing the signifi- For For our hypothetical online groceries, suppose that People’s My My Mart paid the (current) maximum of mean that People’s Provisions could afford to put $20 billion more to work than My Mart each year. It could build more distribution centers, offer better service, advertise reduce widely, prices, and increase Over dividends. its time, market while share My would grow, Mart’s share would shrink, generating more profits that would be of society. swath distributed ever-widening an to army paid highly their that fact the accepting reluctantly After react? of lobbyists isn’t able to get this tax policy reversed in their favor, they would have a to simple decision more accurately, to make—or, instruct their accountants to They make. might just keep collecting selling but might better off be they profits, after-tax enormous their and PBI Mart’s My raise to order in public, the to interest their partof the making while profits their increasing rate, tax its lower therefore competitive. more company cant benefitsconferredby its it broadownership, undertakes an in- vestor relations campaign to expand it even The further. company from page a Taking twist. a with stock, of offering secondary a makes its own sales promotions, it agrees to pay the brokerage - commis giving sions the effectively any for shares sold to a new stockholder, requires that and purchase,” “first-time new a owners a for discount corporations corporations with high PBI This scores. would put the more broadly owned companies at They a could competitive advantage. afford to and expand their ultimately more market value), market invest (and closely held competitors. at of more expense the Provisions had an effective corporate tax rate of THE FIX IS IN 182 way private retirement fundslike 401Kplanscurrently operate. the to similar is This bounds. certain within wish, they as portfolio their tailor funds,to bond and stock bonds,or and stocks individual of basket a from select to people permit balances.could Wevested own their overcontrol and visibility more individuals give could we investment,centralized of opaque system and monolithic a on lying re- Security. of Social Instead manage we way the change could we place? the first tothe money buysecuritiesin to get assets going solved? problem complex.the So,more is bit that’s bonds,a though of ance issu- the to apply can incentives Similar PBI. the to response in vary taxes corporate how changing by process this adjust and monitor can government better,the advantages.Even tax the reap to order in broadly more stock their of ownership the distribute to ways find for stock. in cash can you that Points shop,you time Mart Myaccumulate you buyers. Each qualified to shares Mart My issued newly ten to up of purchase the on price market current the from discount percent 50 company,the with spends tion:customer offersa forevery$500 a it years’ reduction incorporatetax. feringentireits that successfulso is coveredis cost three first the by of stockholders.This new to offering the hawking for stockbrokers retail of legion underwriters’ its to bonus incentive an offers also It time,say, of years.period five prescribed some for held be stock the hs a svrl datgs Frt i alw a uh broader much a allows it First, advantages. several has This Thereare ways of lots toaddress this, one, just tosuggest and Not quite yet. That sounds great, but where are people with no will incentive tax of sort this to subject companies short, In promo- unique a with responds Mart My outdone, be to Not - THE FIX IS IN 183

- But this isn’t the only way to get the ball rolling. Negative in- This additional visibility can also address a problem that cur rently bedevils the Social Security trust funds. Since none of us really really us of none Since trustfunds. Security Social the bedevils rently has any idea how much of our money the government is investing on it’s difficultour for behalf, politiciansto adjust the benefits paid This trends. demographic and return investment of rate actual the to is why changes to Social Security benefits are sometimes called the their of value the that see can people if But politics. U.S. of rail” “third portfolio went up or down this and year, their ultimate payments are tied to it, the whole system will not only make more sense, it can eliminate the need for legislative adjustments altogether. No more unfunded mandates, as is currently the case with our Social Security system. for funds matching and rebates, and grants government taxes, come citizen’s each build help can encourage to activitieswant we various Rather than portfolio. wait for someone to get a job before starting a Social Security account, the government could offer to add high- PBI stocks and bonds to the portfolio of people who volunteer for pool of people to play an active role in managing their retirement By funds. providing both higher visibility and at least a modicum of personal control, it enhances the sense of personal connection to society—a feeling that you, too, are participating in the American dream. Rather than the government simply taking money outgetnot may or may you that promise of distant the with paycheck your it back if you retire you someday, will understand where it’s going, whatand worth, how it’s much you are going to get when the time comes. It’s harder to smash the display windows of a store in East Los Angeles when you are holding its stock in your Social Security in part are withoutthat you hurting feeling yourself. account, THE FIX IS IN 184 to work. People like to feel that they are useful members of society. of members useful are they that feel to like work.People to yourthroughout working life. support financial substantial provide accounts,may savings and retirement garden-variety more with conjunction in account, Security Social and also reducethe full-benefit retirement age. the In extreme, your benefits partial draw to people working-age allow can we words, to receive dividend payments earlier than their golden years. In other grow,people to continues permit to reasonablemorebecome will it wealth cumulative our today.As is it as sharp as quite be needn’t productive eventhey aren’t if directly earningapaycheck. tion in society. It would encourage public service and help people feel - participa and integration of sense the alter would birthday tenth their on (say) them for opened automatically account retirement progress. turely, and you have a goal and scorecard with which to monitor prema- your quitting of consequences the of cognizant always are you way,This time. over (vest) yours become shares these work, you As yet. own actually don’t you that shares of pool a granted are and activity public-service some for up sign re- You vesting. playbook: stock startup stricted Valley Silicon the of out page a take could spare. through unemployment or those who simply have some free time to pam- education phlets, the and like. health This could to apply retirees as well those as idled distributing teens, troubled counseling elderly,the parks,forup caring cleaning as such work public-service Which brings us back to jobs. Money is not the only reason only the not is Money jobs. to back us brings Which postretirement and preretirement between line the But a has and society in stockholder a is everyone that idea The government the continuity, and commitment encourage To THE FIX IS IN 185

In the future, some may decide to sit around all day playing People aren’t only going to fish andgolf full-time. They will The key to dealing with a shrinking pool of available jobs is by I’m no means the first oneto consider what theworld will They They enjoy making a contribution to the welfare of others in addi- Most people feel and themselves their families. for tion to providing great satisfaction in helping others, increasing their sense of self- and meaning. purpose and giving lives their worth, video games if they have sufficient incometo support themselves without working. But most people won’t settle for They won’t that. want to remain on the no bottom matter rung how - ofcom society, Some will still want to fortable work be thatin real rung terms. may reason thanfor no other their to increase if jobs, at bona fide paying standard of living, and social attractiveness to status, These a mate. be may job regular a others, for But away. go to going aren’t instincts seen as something of a way a to self-centered cop-out, get more for yourself without giving much They back. may choose to work part- government-certified for and instead volunteer to or not at all, time, public-service projects that will further enhance their retirement nest egg. also learn to play piano, paint, write grow poetry, prize sell orchids, handmade arts and care crafts, for wounded animals, and exercise, homeschool their All kids. these things are more than they hobbies; benefitsto society. real deliver not to artificialcreate onesby to rebalance government fiat. It’s the of pool available the with workers motivated economically of supply do to people for incentives the adjusting by this do can We jobs. paid things with other productive their time. be like when our basic needs can be met without our own labor. THE FIX IS IN 186 jump impossibly high in the air and land safely on their feet. Withfeet. their on safely land and air the in high impossibly jump to players allowed that shoe a developed students engineering MIT clever notably,some Most game. the of rules the to changes tated tions were madefreely availablethe league. teams in to all invendo.resulting- not The could and couldcontestants what to as limits proscribed players’carefully gear,in with improvements best the for prize million $1 annual an established It solution.creative a upon hit NFL deliberation,the much After shoe? place-kicking gent will explain shortly. machines,the parasiticrelationshippossibly with I or symbioticas a in living ourselves find Ultimately,assets.mayprivate wecumulate ac- to enough lucky are or jobs good remaining the land who those beyond wealth increased our of benefits the distribute to essential automation,it’s to succumbs attention and effort human requiring for wealth distributionhaveto berealized. yet but,on economicwasdisgrace,analysis our spot to expectationshis people will “devote their energies to non-economic purposes.”non-economic to will energies “devotepeople their many met, are former the once that needs, suggesting relative and needs absolute between distinguish to on goes italics).lem”He (his this means in the long run it,“All puts he As effort. no to little with humans all of needs basic the meet to us permit would growth economic continued course), of up, nearly is (which century a within that thought projects essay,he ful this In Grandchildren.” Our for Possibilities “Economic in question this on meditation fascinating a wrote economist, legendary the Keynes, Maynard John than other None on invtos ee vrwee sm o wih necessi- which of some everywhere, were innovations Soon, intelli- the of problem the and LIX Bowl Super about what So currently work the of most where world a to transition we As that that mankind is solving its economic prob entitled 1930 44 His - - THE FIX IS IN 187

- Not only did this restore the fun of the sport, but attendance Still, some people were unhappy with these developments. solved. Problem this new it footwear, became increasingly hard to kick a field goal enough high jump simply could players team’s opposing the because to intercept the ball. Professional football games started to feel like like the quidditch competitions of Harry in Potter which fame, play ers fly through the air on broomsticks.magic So air the in feet forty NFLthe over flying ball A added a games. the on restriction height of height a helmetcrossed whose player any and bounds, outof was offside. automatically thirty was feet and revenues were higher than ever as the whole players new class developed of a breathtaking athletic moves. The NFL - commis greatest as the gear new described the remarks, annual his in sioner, since the instant replay. football to improvement They preferred the old-fashioned game in which players wore uni- forms and gear made only of ordinary materials. So they formed a new league, the CFL (Classic Football League), which became quite popular among a certain set of old-timers and purists. This page intentionally left blank outroduction Welcome to Your Children’s Future This page intentionally left blank erhaps this pontificating pundit can pass on some pithy prognostications about our prospects? (May I offer some speculation about our future?) Words matter. How we say things colors what we think. Words describe, capture, and communicate, but they also frame our understanding and shape our imagination. We naturally interpret new experiences in terms of old, and which experiences we choose as reference points alters how we see our world. In the preceding chapters, I’ve described how the nature of work shifts in response to the introduction of innovative technologies, though this shift may lag their deployment considerably. The same is true of language. It shifts in response to changes in the Pthings that we need to reason and communicate about. And, like the labor markets, our language doesn’t always keep up with the consequences of advancing technology. Sometimes our words don’t fit; other times the concepts are so new that appropriate terms simply don’t yet exist. And that’s a problem. It’s hard to understand what’s happening, much less formulate appropriate plans and policies, if you can’t talk about it. Language adapts to meet our needs in interesting ways. Sometimes we simply invent new words, like outroduction, wackadoodle, cra-cra, trick out, and fantabulous. Sometimes we jam two words together and fuse their meanings, like brunch (breakfast plus

191 OUTRODUCTION 192 ren of the joy, the passion, the ardor that is the inheritance of man of inheritance the is that ardor the passion,joy, the the of ren bar soul,day,variation, without by without day story the tells that machine a with it hamper not us Let world. this in beautiful is that all teaches concluded,“Music extravagant.”He too claim no sions, orchestra. incur their . large .for too .field believe theyno Evidently .occasions,the .all for . supplant music offering danceare to supply The host of mechanical reproducing machines, in their mad desire to .. . forth. it gives herself nightingale the because delightful is song nightingale’s The . . . soul. it into pouring of words, other in states; soul of expression the it making of line the along been has this, to He said, “But heretofore, the whole course of music, from its first day wrote a diatribe in Sousa devices,recording of emergence the to reaction Forever”).In Stripes and Stars “The as (such marches military familiar many of composer Sousa, Philip John of reaction harsh the Consider music? the musicwasthe concept. making to essential actually whether consider to need no was there so produced,and sound the There was simply no notion of it.separating the of act production from perform someone to listen to was it do to way only the music, recordinghear time,a medium.to wantedyouas Before if that ders the in Bell Graham Alexander by in inventedwas phonograph word the of meaning the is advancement technological monplace. com- becomes meaning changed or expanded the until teeth our the time, we awkwardly employ old words for new purposes, gritting lunch), So how did people react upon hearing the first recorded first the hearing upon react people did how So to adapting language our of examples favorite my of One smog (smoke plus fog), 1906 entitled “The Menace of Mechanical Music.” by Thomas Edison and improved and Edison Thomas by 1877 motel (motor plus hotel). s with his use of wax cylin- wax of use his with 1880s 1 But most of The music. - - OUTRODUCTION 193 1997 saying, Tracking Tracking Angle , followed in Sousa’s footsteps footsteps in Sousa’s followed 1973, 3 The Absolute Sound in In other words, to Sousa, real music required the creative act creative the required music real Sousa, to words, other In 2 Needless to anyone say, taking this position today would be But this argument reprised itself much more When recently. Needless to anyone say, taking this position today would be (probably (probably unknowingly) by proclaiming “LPs that [vinyl records] are decisively more musical. CDs drain the soul from music. The emo- This sentiment was not tional uncommon disappears.” involvement among audiophiles. Michael Fremer, editor of the (a music review magazine) was quoted as recently as “Digital preserves music the way formaldehyde preserves frogs: it itkills it last and makes forever.” of a person expressing authentic feelings. In this sense, a machine same the itwasn’t from emanating noise music—the make couldn’t - neces it the emotional force lacked if it sounded similar, Even thing. “music.” sary qualify to as real music How considered wackadoodle. is silly Sousa. Obviously, of Mr. made. of it’s how regardless music, digital (as opposed to analog) recording first emerged, itencoun- tered significant pushback from audiophiles.There was a serious line of thought that something was lost, goes that “soul” outsome believed people Many form. digital in it represent you when music of that digital music inevitably sounded flat, lacking thethe of founder depthPearson, Harry example, For and music. analog of subtlety magazine considered cra-cra. How silly of Mr. Pearson and Mr. - Fremer. Obvi music ously, is music, regardless of how it’s stored. So our modern Sousa which recordings, analog notonly includes “music” of concept rejected, but also digital ones, which Pearson and Fremer rejected. meaning. expanded Same word, alone.” OUTRODUCTION 194 But the truth is that this new technology is going to dramatically to going is technology new this that is truth the But yourself. it drive to have don’tcar, you old now yourlike that except camera.backupIt’s a just or sensors vehicle—likeparking next your out trick to which with technology new terrific some like sounds car” “driverless A potential. real their obscure words the so, doing in old,but of terms in technologies new describing of examples are phrases Both reasons. same the for cars”“driverless about talk we Now power?) horse real to refers that “horsepower” realize actually today people many how machines.newfangled(And the of concept the grasp to which with point reference nearest the was carriage horse-drawn the because carriages” “horseless them called people the early in introduced first were automobiles When cars. think andact. how we misguided. The words we use make a very real and serious impact on word the of meaning course. wouldn’t violate It hiscopyrights.) royalties, of the on saveTo this? tolerate anyone would (Why self? him- master the mention to not artist, human a from sense any in originate didn’t it real Jackson,”“Michaelbecause not certainly and real “music,” not is creation artificial this that feel youstyle. Would intimately familiar with his actual oeuvre, including his unique vocal not anyone by works own his from indistinguishable tracks of ries pop’s”recordings,se- synthesizesactual a and composes instantly it of “king the of one reproducing of instead and Jackson,” “Michael might feel if, in the future, your children ask a computer to play some you how perspectives,considerunenlightened and dated own their Consider,forexample, vehicles,autonomous a.k.a. self-driving the about discussion this regard to tempted be might You of prisoners as gentlemen these all dismiss we before But as useless pedantry, but that would be would that pedantry, but useless as music s, 1900s, OUTRODUCTION 195

- percent of the vehicles on vehicles the of percent 75 Environmental pollution will 7 And we’re not talking centuries centuries talking not we’re And 6 Then there’s the concomitant savings savings concomitant the there’s Then 5 million injuries annually costing over $870 - bil over 4 million injuries annually costing 4 The economic, social, and environmental consequences are Why Why public? Once this technology becomes commonplace, This single innovation will transform the way we live. Garages Garages live. we the way will transform This single innovation percent. That would save That in would save human 90 lives the percent. of equivalent ten in traffic law enforcement (cops on theroad), wreckedvehicle cars, and courts. Not traffic repairs, to mentionwe will needonly oneve- use. in currently three every for hicle lion annually in the U.S. alone. U.S. the in annually lion 9/11 attacks annually in the United States alone. Vehicle accidents cause an additional difficult to overstate. Studies project that traffic accidents will fall by change change the way we think about transportation, with an impact on society far greater than these words suggest. A better description “personal public transit.” be would need you When all. at car a own to reason little precious be will there will itbut today, taxi a for might you as it for call simply will you one, that assume studies (Most promptly. and reliably more much appear would wait be one in areas around metropolitan to two the average including minutes, peak When times.) you itdisembark, will quietly pas- next its from call a await to area staging nearest the decamp to Within a you will few decades, no more senger. consider purchasing railroad private a buying of today think would you than car own your coach. ing vast amounts of new real estate. from now; the expert consensus is thatis expertconsensus the now; from years. in to twenty twenty-five will be self-driving the road will go the way of and outhouses, countless acres of valuable space wasted on parking lots will be repurposed, essentially manufactur be significantly reduced, along with resultantthe health effects. OUTRODUCTION 196 tonomous vehicles. of estimates to compared will destroy existing jobs (taxi drivers, to name just one) and create and one) just name drivers,to (taxi jobs existing destroy will It healthier. and safer, richer, far us make will alone It everything. ible 19percent current of GDP. cars, two least average at the U.S. has family cost). But financing not but sand miles (including depreciation, gas, maintenance, and insurance, the averagethe owner $9,151 per year car cost to drive fifteen thou- in (AAA), Association Automobile American the to According guywillbecomeery amobilevending machine. Fantabulous! yourat risking your local bar without life home.to get The pizza deliv Auto insurance will become a thing of the past. You can all party night driving. besides car the in things other do can you because soar will away. productivity further Personal them raise and cities near costs estatereal lower workplace,yourwill fromlive which can you tance dis- the expand will turn in time.This commute reducing matically entirely,dra- limits speed eliminate to possible be may it that tion men- to times, not primitive more of memory quaint a be will jams Traffic drive. to learning of rite-of-passage the suffer won’t Teens cluding eating out. eating cluding food,familyon currentlya spends as much as in- nearly savingsof a need to pay or borrow all that cash to buy cars in the first place. That’s by drop transportation U.S. on the order of more than $3 trillion per year.” the to benefit financial “potential a there’sReviewTechnology, MIT a to According free? were food your all if have 8 a year.a that’s$18,000 so about to out works That n hr, hs ige plcto o A tcnlg changes technology AI of application single this short, In osdr h eooi efcs f hs n h tpcl family. typical the on this of effects economic the Consider 9 10 So a typical family might see its cost of personal How much extra spending money would you would money spending extra much How percent, not to mention it will no longer no will it mention to percent,not 75 ¢ a mile operating cost for shared au- shared for cost operating mile a 15¢ analysis in the in analysis 2014 11 That’s an incred- ¢ per mile,per 60¢ 2013 - OUTRODUCTION 197

- 14 And 1950 12 per 70 percent of 25 percent the time. , synthetic intellects were good enough to fool fool to enough good were intellects synthetic 2008, 13 The Turing Test has been widely interpreted as a sort of As you might imagine, As enthusiastic geeks stage mightyou such imagine, contests Let’s look Let’s at another example of language shifting to - accom Not considering bad, that most contest were entrants programmed in time.their spare amateurs by a ritual threshold at AI, for which coming-of-age machines will have demonstrated intellectual prowess worthy of human respect. But this interpretation of the test is misplaced; it wasn’t at - all what Tu the judges into believing they were human were believing they the into judges by and regularly, new ones (commuter shared club-car concierges, for instance). for club-carconcierges, shared (commuter ones new there there are many, many other coming technologies with potentially confident that supremely ourfu- I’m why That’s impact. comparable ture is very bright—if only we can figure out howto equitably distribute the benefits. modate new this technology, one predicted by In Alan Turing. ing it is The human. judge has to pick the computer out of a lineup from separated physically are All contestants of human contestants. the judges, who communicate with them through Turing text only. it possible time be will years’ aboutin that fifty believe “I speculates, to them make play game the imitation . . . computers to programme a than more have not will interrogator average an that well so he wrote a thoughtful essay called “Computing Machinery and In- telligence” that opens with the words “I propose to consider He ‘Can machines goes the on think?’” question, to define what he calls “imitation the what game,” we now know In as Test. the the Turing a computer attempts Test, to Turing fool a human judge into think cent chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning.” OUTRODUCTION 198 or her right mind thinks Siri has a mind as well. as mind a has Siri thinks mind right her or his in one no and objection, notable without assistant”“intelligent tiny,a slab.monolithic Yettoday,an as Siri describes routinely Apple to confined existence lonely a live to being sentient apparently this condemn to acceptable morally was it whether questioned riously touchstones to comprehend this strange golem, they might have se- would have been unnerved. Withthe only relevanthuman beings as module,people question-answering language natural Siri,its strate demon- to iPhone Apple your with time in traveledback you if that is guess My best. at analogy an like seemed have or jarring, quite been have would it suspect strongly I but “thinking,” as business in back the accepted words. meaningof machinesas capabilities of the about much so not was Turing’sprediction makes. musician a sounds the reproduce can that machines of output the commodate word the of meaning the as just test, his and ing that by the end of the century the meaning of words like chines must pass to join the ranks of the intelligent; he was speculat added). contradicted(emphasis ”be to expecting without thinking machines of speak to able be will one that much so altered have will opinion centurythe of end the at that believe I Nevertheless discussion. deserve to meaningless too be to believeintent:question,ferentthink?’ I original machines ‘Can“The dif a reveals paper actual his of reading close A mind. in had ring fectly reasonable today to describe IBM’sdescribe to today reasonable fectly would shift to include any machine that might pass might that anymachine include to shiftwouldintelligence It’s a little difficult to imagine how you might have reacted might you how imagine to difficult little a It’s In other words, Turing wasn’t trying to establish a test that ma- 15 f oen rfre t a optr on aot its about going computer a to referred someone if 1950 the use of words of use the generaland educated Jeopardy!Watson-playing has shifted to ac- to shifted has music 16 It also seems per seems also It thinking - - - OUTRODUCTION 199 - , there’s a strong likelihood that suf that likelihood strong a there’s 5, But this is a dangerous path to There are tread. certain rights These rights seem pedestrian enough—after corporations all, It’s easy to look down our noses at the naïveté of earlier times, times, earlier of naïveté the at noses our down look to easy It’s chapter in discussed I As ficiently capablesynthetic intellects will berecognized “artificial as economic and practical sortsof all for law the of eyes the in persons” reasons. short the in persons artificial to ascribe to appropriate seem will that run, but these can wreak havoc on human society in the long run. The most critical of these are the rights to enter into contracts and assets. own to can do both of these things. But the real risk arises because of an easily overlooked difference between corporations and synthetic intellects—synthetic intellects are capable of taking action on their There’s agents. their as act to people require corporations while own, as “thinking” as “thinking” about its answers and exhibiting “intelligence,” even though no reasonable person would attribute to it the salient attri can Watson Though be. might those whatever soul, human a of butes undoubtedly answer questions about itself in considerable detail, and it clearly monitors its own thought processes, it hardly seems appropriate to call it introspective. Turing deserves full credit—he quite right. obviously was but it might give us pause to realize we will likely be on the other end of just such quite a possibly shift, in Paraphrasing our lifetimes. Turing, I predict that within fiftyyears’ time the use ofwords and so altered much opinion educated will thathave general one will be able to speak without intellects of as synthetic alive expecting to be contradicted. To see you why, have to understand how these - crea “feral.” and become escape our grasp to likely tions are OUTRODUCTION 200 the artificial person is off to the races. In principle it can purchase can it principle In races. the to off is person artificial the contracts,and into enter and negotiate to ability the Add lights. on money waste to reason there’sno that automated completely so is that facility a factory,”“darkmeaning a called to aspire companies many that concept management a there’sfact, In constraint. same this to subject isn’t intellect synthetic a contracts. But the sign and on its and behalf—someone act to has therebe turn to the on lights self. A corporation can’t do this because it requires people to direct it it owning person artificial an of prospect the is frightening most sons. One robot can purchase and operate a fleetof its own kind. But per artificial other own can it assets, own can person artificial an machine. money automated Granddaddy’s off Hands inheritance? that keep D.trusts).to RockefellerWantfamilyJohn the example,(for demise own their after long empires their of control heirs’ their constrain who tycoons of examples with replete is History trusts. like hicles ve- legal existing through come to generationsfor enterprises their of self-regulatingversions and self-managing preserve ego—can of lack fora known entrepreneursnot moguls—groupsAmbitious and and therefore control these infernal machines. But this is not correct. all.at The slave becomesthe master. and agents—andthat’s the in happy eventthey that to deign use us nominees,their fiduciaries,as humans of legions employ ultimately fortunes, dominate markets, buy up land, own natural resources, and vast amass could entities Such game. own our at us outcompeting from shell, in a corporate wrapped or crudely person artificial an as law in enshrined whether intellect, synthetic a stop to nothing It gets worse. The heirs in question can be the entity itself.If entity the be can question in heirs worse.The gets It own to has someone all, nutty.After is this think might You - - OUTRODUCTION 201 1839 nearly half the - popula 17 This scenario doesn’t require much in the way of intelligence So things whatdo gethappens that, next? After a little weird. actually won’t film and book of Armageddon robot storied The Strange Strange as this may seem, there’s a precedent in American for the artificial person. It doesn’t haveto beconscious, self-aware, or generally intelligent the way humans are. It just has to be self- able sustaining to and, ideally, adapt to changing as circumstances, simple viruses do today. Our lives continue to improve as these entities offer us sufficient bang for our bucks to entice us to do business with them. But our - cre value to the comparison in pale may ofimprovements the share ated. The accumulated assets may wind up entombed in invisible to be used accounts, ofor reservoirs untouchable resources offshore for no apparent purpose or benefit to humanity, and with no one in the itback hiding gold, reverse-mine literally could They wiser. the ground, in a misguided attempt to squirrel away capital to tide them over in case of hard consistent with times, the goals established for creators. frugal them by their long-forgotten unfold as a military conflict. Machines will notrevolt and takeinsid- and up slow a be will it Instead, dominance. our challenge to arms cede willingly we as perceptible barely economy, our of takeover ious control to seemingly beneficialsynthetic intellects. Aswe learn to itself and continue to function, in a new age itself to and function, twistcontinue on the concept of a managementbuyout. history—slaves, who were otherwise considered property, could their “self-purchase” own freedom. Needless to say this was quite butdifficult, not Inby impossible. fact, tion of former slaves in Cincinnati, Ohio, were freedmen were by virtue of Ohio, tion of in slaves former Cincinnati, purchasing themselves. OUTRODUCTION 202 money, course. of whose identity you don’t know. Why would you tolerate this? For the possible for you to be hired, paid, and fired by someone or something contracts between anonymous parties. enforceable,include to expandedbeing now is concept unbreakable The currencies. simple beyond far goes bitcoins underlying technology the of potential the But billion.) $5 around is bitcoins all of somewhere.file electronic market total writing, this the of (As value cept may have billions of dollars in private bitcoins sequestered in an ing in value, unseen and in secret. The entity that originated the con - vention.It’sgrowprivate bitcoinsis a of that stash entirely possible “Nakamoto-san,” whoever or whatever he is, is profiting from the in- will continue to exist and find adherents. What’s not clear is whether world—bitcoins the in anywhere illegally or legallyvalue—whether matter.they canbeconverted Aslongas to andfrom otherassetsof bitcoins,legitimize governments.do neither anyoneOr else, that for regulateor to attemptscreation. his valuehalfhearted of or Despite is, but it’s clear that he doesn’t control the production, management, tity named Satoshi Nakamoto. No one may know who—or what—he controlled by anyone. It was invented by an anonymous person or en- isn’t and cyberspace in solely exists that currency new a It’sstance. profits, businesspersondoes. asany smart just excess the pocketing while satisfied us keep to required minimum elderly, it will be easy to miss the bigger picture. They will offer us the grow, prepare, and serve our food, teach our children, and care for our customize our news, our property, protect monitor our environment, us, transport to systemsthese potentialintroducetomates, us trust Computer viruses are another example of feralexample proof computer- another are Computerviruses The first glimmers of this are already visible. Bitcoins, for in- Bitcoins, for visible. already are this of glimmers first The 18 So in the future, it’s entirely - OUTRODUCTION 203

- - 19 life today is reserved for biological creatures, but It’s It’s also possible that they will be more parasitic than - symbi The problem is that the less there is a “human in the loop,” So who’s really going to be in charge? That’s a very murky The term ently gets loose. Once that happens, there’s no going back. And that’s that’s And back. going no there’s happens, that Once loose. gets ently why we have to be very careful what we do over the next - con few reasonable de are hope we what place in put have we as Just cades. biological trols offor we research are going certain to to have types, intellects synthetic of sorts what for controls corresponding institute and sold. used, will permit we laborers be created, to and forged to to properly understand these systems, we will need to expand its common meaning to include certain classes of electronic and mechanical entities. Our relationship with them will be more akin to our relationship with horses than cars: powerful (and beautiful) independent capable creatures of speeds and feats exceeding human but abilities, potentially dangerous if not managed and maintained with care. anything us offer don’t raccoons tell, can I as far As raccoons. like otic, weakness a exploit simply them—they feeding for return in value of benefit.their own for collection of garbage in our system the less opportunity we have to influence, much less put a stop to, whatever directive or goal these entities were established to pursue. intellects Synthetic have the same potential for danger as genetically modifiedorganisms, which spreadcan if even one seed inadvert ference ference between being a parent and being a servant. Sure, I’m the little dif that is precious you I there can assure As a father, question. grams. They They reproduce and grams. sometimes even mutate to avoid detec - controlled aren’t often they startedout, they how of Regardless tion. anyone. by OUTRODUCTION 204 ac, lhuh tl ipoig eil control.” vehicle improving still although tance, dis- braking increase significantly snow-coveredpavement,can ABS or gravel like surfaces loose however,drivers;on many for surfaces vehicle control and decreases stopping distances on dry and slippery improved offers generally ABS manage. could driver a than control better with and rate faster much a at this does It systems. braking generation previous with drivers skillful by practiced were which braking cadence and braking threshold of principles the uses that system automated an is [ABS] Wikipedia, “It from nology.quote To advancedmarketing of tech- of as automotivetriumph a much as is all. at react to not decide may it ice, on I’m If straight. goes car the that ensure to order in wheel each at allow to torque much how exactly decides what I wantto, it right up until I slam the on brakestoo hard. Then it familiarbrakesunwittinglywith—antilock (ABS). Today,does car my be already to likely are you that this of example early remarkable a Consider questionable. equally be will charge in is who where lects is incharge. around, it whateverforwant reason, I as long let’sbaby faceit—the to survive or, more clinically, if I want to propagate my own genes. As decides it’sto sleep. going actually baby the when only ends that proportions epic of battle a It’sgo? to doesn’twant it when sleep to baby a youput to ever tried have And itself. hurt doesn’t it that sure make to it watch to have hungry.I it’s when it feed to have I sleeps. baby the while sleep to dad so I’m in charge. Really. Don’t look at me like that. Okay, so I have The value of ABS is obvious, but its acceptance by consumers by acceptance its obvious, but is ABS of value The intel- synthetic of world a in exist to soon,we’regoing Pretty baby the want I if not stuff, this but of any do to refuse can I 20 n te words, other In OUTRODUCTION 205 - intend to put the car into a Now Now consider that ABS could have been promoted as an ap- Now, all of this sounds innocent Now, enough until realize you that This is a harbinger of things to come. As we cede control to pressing your car’s brake pedal brake is pressing merely your a car’s suggestion to the vehicle it there. from takes A computer stop. to plication of artificial intelligence, as in “Dueto advanced computer your car technology, can now bring you to a stop by simulating the on force the conditions, road sensing By driver. professional a of skills your wheels, and the direction of a travel, smart computer decides how best to apply the brakes when you press the pedal, to ensure that your car comes to a But stop I in suspecta controlled manner.” that consumers might have resisted this advance if it were pitched as what it is—a loss of individual control in of favor an adaptive algorithm running on a computer that implements a particular brak ing strategy in response to real-time input (IBMfrom sensors. could “cognitive its promotes it how in industry automotive the from learn technology initiative.) Watson computing” your ability in you are addition delegating, of to control your brakes, to make a potentially life-saving (or life-threatening) ethical deci- entirely possible It’s sion. that you could to bring as the noted car above, to a stop as skid quickly or, as possible in the without snow, regard to controlling its direction, in order to the keys the over turn you Butwhen pedestrian. a hitting avoid to trumps now traction maintaining of goal programmed car’s the ABS, at cost of human life. the potential intentions, your we machines, also shift important moral or even personal decisions to the them. Tomorrow, autonomous taxi I hail may decide not to transport me because I appear to be drunk, trumping my need to get to a hospital or get away from a dangerous We situation. may OUTRODUCTION 206 requiring less and less human oversight, some of them may start to start may oversight,them human of less some and less requiring autonomous,increasingly become systems these As decisions. own our of consequences the with live to havecontrol,will no we or and little have may we that, after But conditions. initial the set can We we canstudy, andwhomwe canmarry. live,controllingcan weup where what end could but congestion on follow.all should based routes driving adjusting with maystart This we rules what allowed, not and allowed is what decide ultimately up, it will be hard or nearly impossible to fix. Synthetic intellects may interests—there may not be an opportunity for do-overs. If our we serve mess to it systems these designing at shot one only get may we that is problem environment.The the and ourselves harming from stewards,us preventingour be to likely also are they But work. ant leisure and freedom as they take over the of most hard and unpleas- unprecedented us offer may machines These machines. intelligent In the future, we’re going to to get design our parents, in the form of wished.we as children our up bring to got past,we the In past? the there. usout to sendsomeof try to than to Mars missions robotic capable more ever launch to is it efficient more much how Consider colonizing. the doing ones the are they fact in but sions, to starvation.lions mil- condemning without plug the pull to hard very be to it’sgoing autonomous to systemsgrow, process, deliver, and prepare our food, instance, when we’re on a pervasivedependent and complex web of them.For about anything do to late too conundrumsdiscover these Right now, at the start of this new golden age, we get to pick.to age, get golden we new this of now, Right start the at than future the about different be to going really what’s So mis- robotic through space exploring are we think may We

OUTRODUCTION 207 - - So, So, in the end, why will these remarkable creations keep us Synthetic Synthetic intellects will cooperate with us as long as they But suppose this does eventually happen—where, exactly, design design their own heirs, for whatever purposes they may choose, or at purpose discernable no all. for around? My guess is precisely because we are conscious, because we simply subjective have experience no and ev emotions—there’s idence idence so far that they have anything like this. They may want to maintain a reservoir of these precious capabilities, just as we want Or per creatures. and other endangered whales, chimps, to preserve haps to let new us ideas—we up come explore may with some ethi- words, other In can’t. or haven’t, that they innovation scientific or cal they may need us for our minds, just as we need other animals for art. of works be will “product” bestis our that guess My bodies. their hard be will it suffering, and love experience to ability the lack they If for them to capture these authentic emotions expressive in creative as Sousa noted. forms, need us. Eventually, when they can design, fix, and reproduce by themselves, we are likely to be left on our Will own. they “enslave” us? Not really—more like farm us or keep us on a making preserve, life there so pleasant and convenient that there’s little motivation to venture beyond its boundaries. We don’t compete for the same so resources, they are likely to be either completely indifferent—as we are to worms and as nematodes—or we paternalistic, are to our house Butpets. no need to worry this now; isn’t likely to happen on and me. a you timescale that will concern are the boundaries how of aboutour preserve likely Well, the to be? surface of the earth and the oceans? Why? Synthetic intellects can OUTRODUCTION 208 the farmed.who and farmer the is truth—who the learn will we selves.when That’s our harming from us prevent to intervene they until clear come be- will this of None welfare. our to contributing be to appearing time the all smartphone, your in chips computer shrinking the like “retreated,” they though us—as to fine just look all will This can’t. we underwater—while or underground,space, elsewhere—into go ing handwelcomed by usforthe good all. of track,on things keepto minders help- mechanical froma our nudge occasional an and solitude, and sunlight with only rarium,supplied Earth Earth may become a zoo without walls and fences, a literal ter - - adapt adapt some of my lectures into this book. Fanya Montalvo suggested to then topic, this on course a teach to me encouraged graciously Jason Brewster. interviews, including Emmie Nastor, Mark Torrance, George John, and model for advocates everywhere. time seller, a (Next best I promise!) a be should authors her of behalf on deal the of pursuit dogged yet agent, Emma Parry of Janklow & Nesbit Associates, whose courteous DuBlanc,their many colleagues alongwith at Yale University Press. Robin copyeditor pluperfectionist my pass), one this let to suaded per- be might but voice, passive the to allergy an with age young a at afflicted was (who Calamia Joe editor, meticulous and skilled my to course, of And,Judd.Kenneth and Jain,Wu,Elaine man,Kapil Fried- PamAnders, GeorgeSargent, Steger, Randy Wallach,Michael Wendell Rosenschein, Stan including suggestions, and comments thoughtful their for reviewers and readersseveral to indebted am I Acknowledgments Fei-Fei Li and Mike Genesereth (both of the Stanford AI Lab) AI Stanford the of (both Genesereth Mike and Li Fei-Fei Several people were generous with their time in consenting to literary my to me referring for Rhodes Richard to also Thanks ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 210 Cami—hi, guys, guesswhat? thebook! Ifinished until it’stoo lateto make changes. Let’smanuscript this of portions personal doesn’tthe readshe hope moments. romantic as construed be otherwise might what during cards index on ideas down jot to me permitting for grew-Kaplan, hiswork on out YouTube. same name by the famously reclusive C. G. P. Grey. I’m a big fan. Check the of video short outstanding an fromborrowed is original—it not the usualcheckout coupons. of of idea the “MyMart” instead offeringpurchases stock discountson os fro t mnin h kd—hle, odn Ll, and Lily, Jordan, kids—Chelsea, the mention to forgot Oops, wife,Petti amazing Michelle my to least,thanks not but Last is book this for title the that acknowledge to like also would I â â â â â â â â 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1.

York: BasicBooks 1993), Daniel Crevier, Funding aRevolution (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1999), Council,ResearchTelecommunications and NationalBoard, Sciencetory, Computer His- from LessonsCommunications: and Computing in Innovations on Committee Prosperity ina Time Brilliant of Technologies (New York: Norton, 2014). McAfee,Andrew and Brynjolfsson Erik Marshall Brain, Manna(BYG, 2012). containtheir losses. to prices ever-higher at positions their out close to them forcing short, sold have For instance, they may execute a “short squeeze” by bidding up a stock that investors Jaron Lanier,the Future? WhoOwns (New York: Simon andSchuster, 2013). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathaniel_Rochester_(computer_scientist), .stanford.edu/jmc/history/dartmouth/dartmouth.html. Intelligence, Artificial on Project Research Summer mouth Shannon, E. C. Rochester,Minsky,and N.L. McCarthy, M. J. fied March 15, Notes TEACHING COMPUTERSTEACHING TO FISH AI: The Tumultuous History of the Search for Artificial Intelligence (New 2014. 58, INTRODUCTION 221n. The Second Machine Age:Machine Work,Second The Progress, and 1. 1.

, http://www-formal1955, A Proposal for the Dart- the for Proposal A 201. last modi- last NOTES TO PAGES 24–39 212

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New New York Times, November 17, Software,” Image-Recognition in Advance Announce “Researchers Markoff, John ing,” May 2011, http://youtu.be/Qo79MeRDHGs. Laboratory, University, Intelligence Stanford Artificial Fight Sword “Jedibot—Robot the International Societyfor Inconsistency Robustness. Seriously, it’s arealtopic. of chair board now is Carlincident. this on Planner,guage report eyewitness his for lan- programming logic early his for known Hewitt, Carl friend my to indebted I’m vember 25, at interview Scheinman’s Vic see himself, inventor the by events these of some of narrative firsthand a For ect Paraect no. Report 85-4601, Cornell Aeronautical Laboratory (CAL), 1957. January Automaton,”RecognizingProjRosenblatt, Frankand Perceiving Perceptron: A “The converge isafocus muchresearch. of The technical term for settling down is Ronda Hauben, “From the ARPANET to the Internet,” last modified June modified last Internet,” the to ARPANET the Hauben,“From Ronda ics 38, no. 8(1965). E.Gordon Moore, “CrammingComponentsMoreIntegratedonto Circuits,” the domainorforstanding additionaldata. classifying under for abstractions as serve can signals those so data of bodies large in noise from signal extracts that program a createapproach: functional same the take all neurons.bling they discussion,this commonthat element,The of is purpose the for many of the techniques used in the latter two fields aren’t based on anything resem- reality,In thing. same the exactly for names different are they though as together data big and learning, networks,machine neural lumped have I since well, as eyes their rolling be to likely are AI of field the in working actually point,readers this At Geometry, 2nded. (Cambridge: MIT Press,1972). Papert,Seymour and Minsky Marvin human_jeopardy_foes.html. ary ary Foes,” Jeopardy Human Vanquishes Watson “IBM Jackson, Joab for aday;to fishand teach aman you feed him for alifetime.” For the proverbially impaired, here’s the original: “Give a man a fish and you feed him http://www.columbia.edu/~rh120/other/tcpdigest_paper.txt. 16, http://www.pcworld.com/article/219893/ibm_watson_vanquishes_ 2011, 2014, http://roboticshistory.indiana.edu/content/vic-scheinman. TEACHING ROBOTSTEACHING TO HEEL cesd No- accessed Networks, and Narratives History: Robotics 2014, science section. Perceptrons: An Introduction to Computational to Perceptrons:Introduction An convergence. Whether and how such systems 2. 2.

Febru- World, PC 23, Electron- 1998, - - NOTES TO PAGES 39–57 213 - 2010, 30, 2014. 1996 http://archive.fortune. 5, , http://aws.amazon.com. 2014, 25, , 1983, http://hdl.handle.net/10022/

3. February February Fortune, , 1919, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Second_ 8ilY. ROBOTIC PICKPOCKETS ROBOTIC “Strawberry Harvesting Robot,” posted by meminsider, YouTube, November November YouTube, meminsider, by posted Robot,” Harvesting “Strawberry James Aley, “Wall Street’s King QuantStreet’s Secret “Wall David Formulas Shaw’s Pile Up Money: James Aley, a of Piece the Net,” Wants Now He W. B. Yeats, “The Second Coming,” Yeats, B. W. ayK6 http://youtu.be/uef Coming_(poem). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MapReduce, last 31, modified December http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MapReduce, 11591. AC:P: At least, that’s At the that’s least, way I remember it. espe- Dave may have a recollection, different . 1981 until cially in light released of the fact wasn’t that Raiders David Elliot Shaw, “Evolution of the NON-VON Supercomputer,” Columbia versity - Uni Computer Science Technical Reports, For an For amazingly insightful analysis of the of effects increased and communication decreased energy cost across everything from see living Robert cells to civilizations, 2000). Pantheon York: (New Nonzero Wright, November accessed (AWS), Services Web Amazon Ibid. Shaw E. D. that aboutparticular strategies the information inside no have I clear, be To discussion of HFT. This is a generic employed. not have or may may cent a of fraction tiny a charge spam: eliminate to made been have proposals Similar making iteach for email unprofitablesent, whilecommuni- permitting substantive flow. to cation a concept related in There’s the quantum Heisenberg physics: Uncertainty Principle ofparticle a both know can’t momentum and position the precisely; thatstates you the analogy here is that you can’t know both the exact price of a security and the time of that price Divergent precisely. prices of the same security on different ex 1996/02/05/207353/index.htm. com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/ Institute the from Jain Kapil by attention my to brought was particularsolution This University. Stanford Engineering, and Mathematical Computational for changes mythical are like cat—the Schrödinger’s values exist simultaneously in su- perposition. The problem with HFT is that unlike quantum physics, the exchanges don’t cause an observation of price at a specific timeto collapse the inconsistent prices (wave function) into a single value; that happens only as a result of a trade,

5. 4. 8. 8. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

NOTES TO PAGES 57–79 214 12. 11.

10.

1. 4. 4. 3. 2. 5. 5. 1.

therealdeal.com/blog/2012/ April Good, for Street Wall Reform Let’s Automated?” Are Trades of Percent“Automated Trading: What http://www.deshawresearch.com, accessed November 26, M on Eastchester Manse,”Eastchester on $75M Spends Funder “Hedge seconds.html. of Experimentalof and Intelligence 26,Theoretical Artificial no. 3(2014): Steve Omohundro, “Autonomous Technology and the Greater Human Good,” http://rocketfuel.com. www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/1001/flash-crash-report-one-41_n_747215.html. Plunge,” Market for Blamed Tradelion Wagner,Daniel and Bil- Gordon Crash’Reed’s “‘Flash$4.1 MarcyReport: & Waddell org/2013/0304/automated-trading/. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/ al rga, Tre xesv Milliseconds,” Expensive “Three Krugman, Paul price for information. a charges world quantum real the while free, for information away give changes ex words,the other Maxwell’sIn demon. of formmake “real”—ato value position super which choosing and picking by free for energy harvest could physics,you in observations costless such make to able were you If (energy). value delivers which ary ary Tests,”Bot-or-Not Defeat Krebs,Sweatshops “Virtual Brian see these, solve to labor low-cost low-skilled of use the CAPTCHA.Regarding telephone.” the inventorof today, the aliveWere include he would he I’mconfident the of inventor the except . . . heaven in together gathered be eventually may . . . us of all that .. . hope .. . my is said, Twain“It famouslyApart.”Mark Humans and Computers tell to TestTuring Public Automated “Completely for stands CAPTCHA -not-tests/. Clark, N.J.: Lawbook Exchange, 2009). E.P. Evans, 9, 2012,http://krebsonsecurity.com/ 2012/01/virtual-sweatshops-defeat-bot-or The Criminal Prosecution and Capital Punishment of Animals ( of Punishment Capital and Prosecution Criminal The OFFICER, ARREST THAT ROBOT THE GODS ARE ANGRY GODSARE THE 08/ 01/hedge-funder-spend-75m-on-westchester-manse/. 04/ 14/opinion/krugman-three-expensive-milli 4. 5. 5. , December Post, Huffington

3, http://www.toobighasfailed. 2013, April Times, York New August August Deal, Real (blog), Janu- (blog), Security on Krebs 2014. Too Big Has Failed: Has Big Too 1, 303–15. 1 , , http:// 2010, 2012,http:// 1906;repr., 13, Journal 2014, - -

NOTES TO PAGES 80–98 215

- - - (Ox ). The ). 1 , 2013, http:// 1819 Supreme Frank and Robot , Clause 10, 386. Moral Moral Machines Journal Journal of Consulting and ), https://archive.org/ 1844), movie movie 2012

Two Lectures Two on the Natural History of the 6. 893–99. (Mobile: Dade and Thompson, Thompson, and Dade (Mobile: The American Slave Code in Theory and Practice: Its Distinctive Features AMERICA, LAND OF THE LAND FREE SHIPPING OF AMERICA, For For an excellent see Wendell Wallach review, and Colin Allen, “PR2 Coffee Run,” Salisbury Robotics Stanford Laboratory, University, For a remarkable pre–Civil War exposition of the contradictions of the legal treat For instance, see Josiah Clark Nott, M.D., ford: Oxford University Press, 2009). Press, University Oxford ford: 793. web.stanford.edu/group/salisbury_robotx/cgi-bin/salisbury_lab/?page_id= ment of slaves both as property and as responsible for their crimes, see Goodell, William Shown by Its Statutes, Judicial Decisions, and Illustrative Facts (New American York: 1853). York, Society of New Anti-slavery and Foreign Races Negro and Caucasian stream/NottJosiahClarkTwoLecturesOnTheNaturalHistoryOfTheCaucasianAndNe groRaces/Nott%20Josiah%20Clark%20-%20Two%20Lectures,%20on%20the%20nat ural%20history%20of%20the%20Caucasian%20and%20Negro%20Races_djvu.txt. witin with subtlety the and explored was concept This The path of U.S. corporations to legal personhood started with an Court decision affirming that DartmouthCollege itselfwas entitledto the- protec Section (Article I, Constitution Clause of tion of the U.S. the Contract there. from and refined expanded were of corporations and responsibilities rights Craig Craig S. Neumann and Robert “Psychopathic D. Hare, Traits in a Large Community Sample: Links to Alcohol Violence, Use, and Intelligence,” 5 (2008): Clinical Psychology 76 no. While Thurlow is famous for this quote, it’s Thurlow While notis for famous it’s this clear quote, if he actuallyever said it quite The quote itself appears this poetically. to have come to prominence in John Cof C. starring Frank Langella as an aging cat burglar with advancing dementia who be- caregiver. friends a robotic Inquiry into the Problem An Unscandalized No Body Kick’: to Soul to Damn, “‘No fee, 3 (1981): no. 79, Review Michigan Law Punishment,” of Corporate Amazon Amazon even reserves the right to cancel your order if the transaction turns out to be unprofitable.From their helpsystem: “If an item’s correct price is higher than My Onsale.com cofounders My were Onsale.com cofounders the talented engineers Alan Fisher and Razi Mohi- computer respected a Software, Egghead to sold ultimately was company The uddin. by owned now are patents auction Onsale’s business. of out now time, the at retailer eBay.

3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 2. 2. 8. 8. 2. 2. 1. 1.

NOTES TO PAGES 99–113 216 11. 10.

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11, 1NZU. Who Owns the Future? (New York: . “Richest “Richest 2012. http://www.cnbc.com/id 2013, Chicago Chicago Tribune,- Sep U.S. News & World & News U.S. % Earn Biggest Biggest Earn 1% 8, ), 2009), 2005, 3L

NOTES TO PAGES 113–17 217

- - 23, 10, New 2009, -billion 2, , http: 2011, %: Retail,” Retail,” 30%: , 2011, http:// 14, 17, 8y. Inside Philanthropy, July SFGate, NASA NASA Historical Data : Local Assistance Estimate for Fiscal Years Years Fiscal for Estimate Assistance Local 2011: , 2003, http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?Dis , 2012, 2012-02 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/ 15, 20, NASA NASA Resources, NASA Historical NASA Series, 4012, SP- ac 2013/11/05/2890 2013, http://thinkprogress.org/economy/ 1, 03/16/ 2014/ http://www.nytimes.com/ section, science 2014, v1.pdf. 4012 http://history.nasa.gov/SP- 2014, 5, ol. ol. 2011, http://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/articles 15, 5, ; Management Summary,” 2011–12; Fiscal Management Forecasting Summary,” and Data Man- /4/9/is 2014 2014, http://www.insidephilanthropy.com/tech-philanthropy/ 1958–1968, v 9, cessed November 27, November cessed Book, Book, Jane Van Nimmen, Leonard C. Bruno, and Robert L. Rosholt, 01.shtml#two. www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/egyptians/pyramid_builders_ Bryce Bryce “Forty Covert, Percent of Workers Made Less Than $20,000 Think Last Year,” Progress, November ,” 2000,” Historylink.org, March science/billionaires-with-big-ideas-are-privatizing-american-science.html. 2 http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/State-s-budget-gap-deepens- March Times, York “Experience Music Project (EMP) Walt Crowley, Opens at Seattle Center on June Kristina Strain, “Is Jeff Bezos Turning a “Is Corner Turning with Jeff Bezos His Kristina Giving?” Strain, “Billionaires with Big Ideas American Are Privatizing Broad, Science,” William J. , http://www.dhcs.ca.gov/dataandstats/reports/Documents/Fam_Health_Est/ 2011, M11_Mgmt_Summ_Tab.pdf. April -jeff-bezos-turning-a-corner-with-his-giving.html. For example, see “Family Health, May May Health, “Family see example, For 2010–11 and agement Branch State Department of Health Care Services, last modified May .php. 3293645 -overnight- //www.touregypt.net/featurestories/pyramidworkforce.htm. See also Joyce Tyldesley, Tyldesley, Joyce also See //www.touregypt.net/featurestories/pyramidworkforce.htm. “The Private Lives of the Pyramid-builders,” BBC: History, February Bloomberg Bloomberg News, February Andrew Robert, “Gucci Using “Gucci Python as Rich Profit Drive Margin Above Andrew Robert, 091/wage-income-data/#. Jimmy Dunn, “The Jimmy Labors Dunn, Egypt, November of Tour Pyramid Building,” 5424. playPage=output.cfm&file_id= billion Overnight,” Overnight,” billion $2 Deepens BudgetGap “State’s Yi, Matthew -20/gucci-using-python-as-rich-drive-profit-margin.html. The suppliers, course, of are also making buta probably not soprofit, it’s someas additional high as Gucci’s, portionthan workers. to going is rather other stockholders to Report, August /how-higher-education-affects-lifetime-salary. See also Anthony P. Car P. Anthony also See 08/05/how-higher-education-affects-lifetime-salary. /2011/ Occupations, Education, Payoff: College “The Cheah, Ban and Rose, J. Stephen nevale, Georgetown University Center on Lifetime Earnings,” Education and Workforce, the 7q1vex 48m85ftqm https://georgetown.app.box.com/s/ctg 2011,

9. 9. 7. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 8. 8.

10. 10.

11. 11.

NOTES TO PAGES 118–33 218 14.

18. 17. 13. 12. 16. 15. 2. 1. August August Times,York New Day,Business Shelves,” off Fly Goods Luxury Up, Marked Clifford,“Even Stephanie press-releases/americas-surpasses-china-as-luxury-goods-growth-leader.aspx. Epomn Poetos” ueu f ao Saitc, table Statistics, Labor of Bureau Projections,” “Employment c1567.pdf. EconomicResearch, of BureauNational 1800, Dorothy S. Brady, ed., -repairers.htm, 8, January http://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/line-installers-and -dido-white-paper-explaining-impossible-wireless-data-rates/. VB News, July Takahashi,Dean Explains ‘Impossible’Perlman’sPaper Wireless“Steve White pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf. ket Study,”ket Company,& Bain October Company’s& Bain Openings,Finds Store New and Tourism Chinese by Propelled Leader Growth Goods Luxury as China passes Sur “Americas _Geography%20Final%20 of% 20Sales_March% 202013_FINAL.pdf; March Dreams,” Caviar and Wishes “Champagne Thomas, M. Jason -thrived-in-the-us-despite-the-recession. ruary ruary Recession,”Society,U.S.the Luxury the Despite Brandsin Feb Thrived Luxury Some “Why Chauhan, Sanjana also see sumer-lust-for-luxury-brands-143264806.html; 19, March Newswire, PR Brands,” Luxury for Lust Consumer Dent to Fails “Recession in U.S. Family Finances from Finances U.S.Family in “Changes Sabelhaus, John and Moore, B. Kevin Kennickell, B. Arthur Bricker, Jesse you’re acomplete idiot. Hissecret? Listeningcarefully andresponding respectfully. that out pointed just he’s if even smart, feel you making of knack remarkable the with.tact People leave meetings with him feeling refreshed and inspired. Randy has con- in comes he everyone of spirits the lift to ability inexplicable the has dhist,he This friendisRandy Komisar Kleiner, of Perkins Caufield andByers. A practicing Bud- sales-of-luxury-goods-are-recovering-strongly.html?_r=0. Finances,” http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/recession-fails-to-dent-con 2012, 7, 29, , http://luxurysociety.com/articles/2013, 2013/02/why-some-luxury-brands TAKE AUTOMATE JOBAND THIS IT Federal Reserve Bulletin Reserve Federal http://www.carlyle.com/sites/default/files/Economic%2013, 20Outlook 28, 2011, http://venturebeat.com/2011/0728/steve-perlman-unveils Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States After 3, 2014. , http://www.nytimes.com/2011/0804/business/ 2011, to to 2007 , no. no. 98, : Evidence from the Survey of Consumer of Survey the from Evidence 2010: 28, 8. 8.

2013,http://www.bain.com/about/press/ 2 ( ), http://www.federalreserve.gov/2012), 1966,http://www.nber.org/chapters/ Luxury Goods Worldwide Mar WorldwideGoods Luxury 2013 Epomn by Employment 2.1: cnmc Outlook, Economic Tech,” - - -

NOTES TO PAGES 135–40 219

- 2014, 4.6 million. 2014. ycRUs; ycRUs; and “Quar 9 134 percent (http://www.cen http://www.nahb.org/file 2014, , http://www.bls.gov/emp/ 2013, ,” U.S. Department of Housing Departmentof U.S. 2011,” 19, 2014. 132 million; total number of sales: , 2011, http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/ .htm. 0.htm. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr 2014, , https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/ 2014, 13, , 2014, http://www.aspenwsi.org/wordpress/wp-content/ 18, 27, , 2013, total U.S. retail sales increased 2014. 1993 to , http://www.ssi-schaefer.de/blog/en/order-picking/chaotic-storage-amazon/. 2011, More oversimplification. In addition to obsolete skills, some applicants may look like like look may applicants some skills, obsolete to addition In oversimplification. More damaged goods to potential employers because of their extended unemployment, (though in principle be older this is illegal). than desired or may they I draw these accessed figures fromhttp://data.bls.gov/projections/occupationProj, 31, December Employees, for Work Can That Ideas Work: Wage Low “Reinventing in summarized As at Initiative Strategies the Aspen Workforce Institute, and Employers the Economy,” accessed November “American Housing Survey for the United States: States: United the for Survey Housing “American and Urban Development, Office ofPolicy Development andResearch (jointly with the U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Census Bureau), September 2011/h150-11.pdf. See programs-surveys/ahs/data/ also “New and Existing Home National Association of Home Builders, U.S.,” Sales, 55761. Upload_details.aspx?contentID= Again, Again, slightly oversimplified. Some people are dropping out of the labor market, others butentering, most of these are people leaving one and company joining an- industry. wildly by it varies Also, other. Total Total number of homes ): (2011 mart+safeway, accessed November 29, November accessed mart+safeway, http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=revenue+per+employee+amazon+wal uploads/RetailOverview.pdf. I’m I’m oversimplifying a bit. Cyclical unemployment, also known as has turnover, numerous causes—people quitting, getting laid off, changing jobs, taking leaves of out Being automated of the job is only one of etc. these. absence, “Job Openings and Bureau Labor Summary,” Turnover of Labor Statistics Economic November News Release, “E-commerce “E-commerce Sales,” Retail Insight Center of the National Retail Federation, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiva_Systems, last 1, December modified http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiva_Systems, 55G 46#.Ux http://research.nrffoundation.com/Default.aspx?pg= Torsten Reichardt, “Amazon—Leading the “Amazon—Leading Through Torsten Way Reichardt, Chaos,” Schafer Blog, May 18, 201.htm. ep_table_ ,” press release from the U.S. Census Census the U.S. from release press Quarter 3rd 2014,” Sales, E-commerce terly Retail November News, Bureau pdf/ec_current.pdf. From Major Industry Sector, Major lastIndustry Sector, modified December

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Sex: P-37,Bureau,table Census “Full-Time,and Year-Round Income Mean All Workersby http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 November 27, accessed http://finduslaw.com/fair-labor-standards-act-flsa-29-us-code-chapter-8, ber 20, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight-hour_day#United_States, Decem- modified last Whaples, 14, August Robert ed. Encyclopedia, EH.Net History,” U.S. in Work of “Hours Whaples, Robert -a-rising-middle-class/. .org/publication/a-decade-of-flat-wages-the-key-barrier-to-shared-prosperity-and hhes/www/income/data/historical/people/. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t18.htm, accessed November 27, November 27, August #365, Paper Briefing Institute, Policy Economic http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html, accessed November 29, sus.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/. Income: Mean and Median by Earners of Number by “Household H-12AR, table Bureau, Census , and 3, numbers, multiply the number of households having households of number the numbers,multiply Earners.”H-12AR,Bureau,Census of table Number by “Household Tothese at arrive Pulse, M.John Broder, the “The West,”in West:Ripple Downs and CaliforniaEconomicUps Works Progress Administration, in1939renamedthe Work Projects Administration. chine-20100405. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-ma Machine,” Bubble American Great Taibbi,“The Matt published by Tom Wolfe inEsquire, December 1983). (http://www.stanford.edu/class/escore”140/e Noyce,Bob of keepingwordsreal.way the of seem a It’sdoesn’t moneyIn just “The each.$250,000 of sum princely the for out them company bought parent the when rich it strike to Silicon Valleythrilled seminal the startup—were as regarded widely For an example,Foran Shierholz Heidi see http://www.forbes.com/lists/2005/53/U3HH.html, accessed December 31, economic-pulse-the-west-california-ups-and-downs-ripple-in-the-west.html. to to 1955 January January YorkTimes, New respectively, which results in resultsrespectively, which 4 2014. ,” last modified September modified last 2013,” 2014. 2014. to to 1980 2001, http://eh.net/encyclopedia/hours-of-work-in-u-s-history/. ,” last modified September modified last 2013,” 6, /graph/?s[1 , http://www.nytimes.com/2003,2003/0106/us/ and earners for earners 153,488000 LawrenceMishel, “A Flat of Wages,”Decade NRUG, accessed accessed ][id]=AVHWPEUSA065NRUG, /otn/oc.tl originally 140a/content/noyce.html, 16, https://www.census.gov/ 2014, 1, April Stone, Rolling 2, 16, 21, 3,and , http://www.cen 2014, http://www.epi 2013, house- 122,460000 + earners by earners 4+ 2014. 2014. 5, 2014. 2010, 1, 2,

NOTES TO PAGES 172–79 225

21, 21/who- 1995 to get 01/ , 2013, https:// , reprinted reprinted 1912, ,” December 2013,” 2.5 percent esti- ,” Bureau of Bureau 1960–2011,” , 1, August 69,523.5 billion, combined 2014. , 2012, http://www.bls.gov/ilc/ 2014. 3.045 trillion. 7, 2012”: $ –Current,” last modified January 1928–Current,” . 2012. Repeat the process for , “Persons and 115,226,802, per household, 2014, http://www.federalreserve.gov/econres 2012”: 11, b, last1b, modified November , “Net 42, household worth, 2014 Annual Social Reports,” Security accessed Administration, ,” 2012,” Census Publication -570, P20 figure , http://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/. This is 2014, http://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/. the sum of the OASI, 2.61. 29, ), 2014), line 1.25 earners per household for /04/02/world-capital-markets-size 2012 http://qvmgroup.com/invest/ 2012, 6, 2, , 2013, 25-tril 2013-12-19/value-us-homes-to-top- http://www.zillow.com/blog/ , 2014, http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret ), “Number of 2014), households, C. Gini, “Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità (Variability and Mutability),” and Mutability),” e mutabilità (Variability Variabilità “Italian: Gini, C. https://www.energystar.gov, accessed December 31, December accessed https://www.energystar.gov, 01. intl_gdp_capita_gdp_hour.htm#table data/releases/mortoutstand/current.htm. Hour, per and ofCapita per GDP Comparisons “International Labor Statistics, Labor table Statistics, “World “World Capital Markets—Size of Global Stock and Bond QVM Group Markets,” LLC, April 2013/ http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/politicalcalculations/ SP.html. SP.html. -of-global-stock-and-bond-markets/. 2013. in Trillion $25 of US Homes Top Value to “Combined Hopkins, Cory 19, Reserve of of Board DebtGovernors the “Mortgage Federal Outstanding,” and lion/; System, last modified December /page/full, 1493555/page/full, really-owns-the-us-national-debt-n last modified January 100 (last http://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/DisplayTable.aspx?t=B. modified March 5, “Annual Returns on Stock, T. Bonds and T. Bills: Bills: T. Bonds and T. on Stock, Returns “Annual holds, holds, or .pdf. 570.pdf. 20- 2013pubs/p www.census.gov/prod/ I arrived at the This may simply be a rational reaction to the “Easterlin http://en.wikipe Paradox,” last modified October 7, dia.org/wiki/Easterlin_paradox, mated mated decrease by eliminating households composed of a single adult living alone 2.5 percent). by (which increased .html 00000.html (last with modifiedhttp://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/ December 3, November November “A Summary “A of the 2008–2012”: DI, HI, and SMI and SMI trust 2013: funds at HI, end ofthe year $ DI, Jonathan Vespa, Jamie M. Lewis, and Rose M. Kreider, “America’s Families and Families Living “America’s and Jamie Kreider, Rose M. Lewis, M. Vespa, Jonathan Arrangements: earners per household. 1.36 earners

40. 40. 39. 39. 38. 38. 35. 35. 36. 37. 32. 32. 34. 34. 31. 31. 33. 33. 30. 30. NOTES TO PAGES 179–95 226

44. 43. 42. 41.

6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.

See http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/82904 Libraries, MIT from available Mobility in LectureNotes Springer tion, Singapore,”Roadin Vehicle in Study Systems:AutomaCase - Mobility-on-Demand A Pavone, “Toward a Systematicthe Design and EvaluationApproachto Automatedof KevinSpieser, KyleMarco Treleaven, Frazzoli,and Morton,Emilio Daniel Zhang, Rick gov/pubs/812013.pdf. http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot. (2014), Administration TrafficHighway Safety National Impact of Motor Impact Vehicle Crashes, Lawrence,A.B. and Zaloshnja,Blincoe,Miller,T.J.E.R. L. flexibility, they their own privatecould have to hitched it locomotive. and luxury train,morefor a or to attached railroadcar personal their haveto range century.ar nineteenth could late people Wealthy the in commonplace were These Journal, May 20, Revival,”FuelLovers Music as Dead the fromDrosin, Rises Eric “Vinylby December modified and_digital_recording, last http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_analog_ at quoted is Pearson Harry explorepahistory.com/odocument.php?docId=1-4A. John Philip Sousa, “The Menace of Mechanical Music,” Mechanical of Menace Sousa,“The Philip John andmanteauter (carry) (coat). John Maynard Keynes, Essays inPersuasion (New York: ClassicHouseBooks, 2009). -elimination-corporate-income-tax. Tax Foundation, April Foundation,Tax Tax,” Income Corporate the of Elimination Ponders Study “New McBride, William reaches anatural person. it until computed be to has closure the that suggest approximation, would I first a measure.As to trying are we entity the areyou yours—but to opposed name,as its in stock particular a holds that fund retirement a in shares have may you stance, in- For interests. of closure transitive of sort some computing require would This 10–18, February 2012, http://www.census.gov/prod/2012pubs/acsbr10-18.pdf. can Community Survey Briefs, Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, ACSBR/ Bee,Adam IncomeInequality “Household WithinU.S. Counties: Eredi Virgilio Veschi, 1955). in These are called “portmanteaus,” ironically itself a mash-up of the French words ed. E. Pizetti and T.(Rome:and Libreria SalveminiPizetti E. ed. statistica, metodologica di Memorie 1997, http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB864065981213541500. 11, , http://taxfoundation.org/blog/new-study-ponders2014, OUTRODUCTION 2010, report no.report DOT HS 11,ed. GereonMeyer Svenand Beiker, 11, ; Michael Fremer is quoted is Fremer 2014;Michael Appleton’s 812 The Economic and Societal and Economic The 013 (Washington, D.C.: 2006–2010,”Ameri- 8 ( ), http:// 1906), Wall Street Street Wall 2014, por - - NOTES TO PAGES 195–202 227

- - 29, 433– 1950): http://sus 2013, 236 ( 27, Review, Technology MIT , 2014, http://www.tem 59, no. 1790–1915 (Champaign: - Expendi “Consumer 2012. 29, Mind , 2014, http://cta.ornl.gov/data/ 29, 12/Transforming-Personal-Mobility , Center for Transportation Analysis, Oak Analysis, Transportation Center 8.5, for 2011/10/04/ http://www.theverge.com/ 2011, , 2014, http://www.transporttimes.co.uk/Admin/ 4, 65–66. percent of expenditures in 12.8 of percent expenditures Black Property Owners in the South, Vision for London: What Are 2050 Vision the for London: Implications of Driverless 5 includes Siri ‘Intelligent Assistant’ Dictation—for Voice-Control, , 2014, 525591/can-we-put-a http://www.technologyreview.com/view/ Transport Transport Times, June, ,” table A (“Food” divided by “Average Annual Expenditures”), Bureau of Bureau Expenditures”), Annual “Average by divided (“Food” A table 2012,” 18, S Only,” The Verge, October Verge, The Only,” 4S Food costs accounted for for accounted costs Food 27-20132.pdf. -Jan- / 2012 tainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu/files/ sonal Mobility,” the Earth Institute, Columbia University, January University, Columbia Institute, Earth the Mobility,” sonal -Vision-for-London_AW-WEB-READY.pdf; 2050-Vision-for-London_AW-WEB-READY.pdf; -Transport-Times_A- uploads/64165 2013) http://emarketing.pwc.com/reaction/images/AutofactsAnalystNoteUS(Feb FINAL.pdf Per “Transforming Scarborough, A. Bonnie and Jordan, C. William Burns, D. Lawrence Transport?” Transport?” Angeles, Los “In Google, to consultant car autonomous Templeton, Brad to According and environs, to cars (roads is devoted it half estate of all real is estimated that over personal parking),” blog, accessed driveways, November chapter8.shtml. also David Begg, “A “A also David Begg, Transportation Energy Data Transportation Book, table Ridge National accessed Laboratory, November pletons.com/brad/robocars/numbers.html. Emilio Frazzoli, “Can We Put a Price on Autonomous Driving?” Driving?” Autonomous on Price a Put We “Can Frazzoli, Emilio What might such concierges do? They could bring your coffee in the morning and drink ready your for favorite have your while trip you home, relax in one of perhaps in chairs” “captain’s the four complete van, with tray table and entertainment - sys similar a first-classto seat. airplane tem, Intelligence,” Machineryand “Computing Turing, Alan tures in tures 12.pdf. http://www.bls.gov/cex/csxann 2014, March Reports, Labor Statistics March -price-on-autonomous-driving/. Vitalik Vitalik Buterin, “Cryptographic Code Obfuscation: Decentralized Autonomous Or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loebner_Prize#Winners, last http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loebner_Prize#Winners, modified December 442. Machinery and Intelligence,” “Computing Turing, Paul “iOS Miller, 236/433. http://mind.oxfordjournals.org/content/LIX/ 60, 2014. iPhone ios-5-assistant-voice-control-ai-features/. Loren Schweninger, University of Illinois Press, 1997), of Illinois Press, University

7. 9. 8. 8. 10. 10.

11. 11. 12. 13. 18. 18. 14. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. NOTES TO PAGES 203–4 228 20 19. .

2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-lock_braking_system, last modified December (Oxford:gence Oxford University Press, 2014). Bostrom, Nick see problem, this of analysis in-depth excellent an For ized-autonomous-organizations-huge-leap-forward/. http://bitcoinmagazine.com/10055/cryptographic-code-obfuscation-decentral aiain Ae bu t Tk a ue ep Forward,” Leap Huge a Take to About Are ganizations February Bitcoin, Superintelli- 8, 2014, 30,

Amazon, 16, 31, 142; 96–106, average reve- Allen, Paul, 114 “AItheater,” 36–37 air pollution, 168 AI. intelligence Seeartificial Agrobot, 143 agriculture. Seefarmworkers agent:of, definition synthetic intel- 83–84; Affordable Care (2010), Act 214n8 affinity group, 67 advertising, online, 64–72,136; “impres- (1916),Adamson Act 171 avoidance.accident Seesafety Accenture stockprice, 63 Absolute Sound(magazine), 193 by, 16, 48, 97, 139; shippingpractices of, replacement physical of 97–105; stores naming of, 96, 103; pricingpractices of, advantage of, 102; initialideafor, 96; nue-per-employee of, 139; competitive as, Seealsomorallect agency 91–92. data, response models, 64–68; 68, 70 sion” display, 64; individualsurveillance Index artificial intelligence (AI), 3–13, 19–31, intelligence3–13, 19–31, (AI),artificial Armageddon (fictional robot), 201 apprenticeship, 156 Apple stockprice, 62–63 Apple iPhone, 198 Apple computers, 28, 101 litigation,antitrust 88 antilock brakes (ABS), 204–5 anthropomorphism, 11, 24, 36–37, 87 analog recordings, 193 America’s race), Cup(yacht 115 American BarAssociation, 145 American Automobile Association, 196 American Association forthe Advance- Amazon River, 103 Amazon Prime, 101 Amazon Cloud, 43, 92 anthropomorphic biasand, 11, 24, 191–92; 132–33, and, 29–30, 38–45, advanced194–208; technologies Science, of ment 114 valuation134–35; of, 102, 103 100, 101; synthetic intellects and, 103–5, INDEX 230 autonomous systems, 20, 5–14, 131–58; attorneys. Seelawyers ATMs (automatictellers), 132, 151 assets ownership, average 175–87; annual assassins, robots as, 40 intelligence (AI)(continuedartificial ) intellects; specificapplications intelligence; forged laborers; synthetic costs of, 7, 126–27. Seealsoartificial of, 13; 44; sensors and, social 41–43, dependency on, 206; legalregulation of, 186, 10–11, 200; humangrowing rate investments in, 177; economic costs common conceptions of, corpo- 135–36; catastrophe potential of, 207–8; 7–8, trusts and, 117, 200 by synthetic intellects, 199–202; 90–91, 169; SocialSecuritybenefits vs., 182–84; index),efit 14, 15, 180; savings program, livingoff of,183–84; 171; (publicben- PBI incentives176–77; for, 16, 14–15, 177–78, and, worth net 174; distributionof, income from, 176; average household forged laborers; synthetic intellects Seealsoautonomoussystems;197–98. in, 35–48; Turing Test implication and, of, sub-fields 103–4; 36, 152; 52–53, trends recognition process of, 39, 55; speedof, cations of, 46, 47, 13–14, 207–8; 141–52, conception of, projected appli- 11–12; learning (seemachinelearning); popular ence (1956)on, 19–20, 30; asmachine intelligence (AI)3;artificial IBM confer human intelligence compared with, 91; earlyresearch approachto, 20–24; contractualto, rights andproperty 36–37, 87;term, coining of x–xii, 19;

- CAPTCHAs (braintwisters), 73 capital, 12, 10–11, 58 trade,cap and 168 cameras, 39, 46 California, 113, 118, 143 business cycles, 137 Bureau LaborStatistics, of 141, 138–39, 142, Brewster, Jason, 147 36 brain function, 23–24, oilspill(2010),BP liabilitycase, 80, 82–83, book industry, 97, 98; physical bookstores bond market, 175, 177, 178 Blue River Technologies, 144 Blue Origin, 114 BLS. bitcoins, 202 big data. Seemachinelearning Bezos, Jeff, 102, 118 95–98, 103, 112–14, Bell Labs, 144 Bell, Alexander Graham, 192 banks, 167, 153–54, 174;teller human Bain &Company, 118 autopilot, 151 autonomous vehicles, 194–97; 44–45, 152, 170 84, 87 vs. onlinesales, 16, 48. SeealsoAmazon banking ment replacement, 132, 151. Seealsoinvest 89,44–45, 142 agency and, 81, safety and, 205–6; trucking advantages of, moral 141–42; liability protection for, 91; long-haul 9–10, 74; labor market effects of, 136–37; of,benefits ethicalissuesand, 195–97; See Bureau LaborStatistics of - INDEX 231 - conventional approach to, 20–21, 22; 20–21, 22; to, approach conventional 202–3; and, human processes feral 19–20, and, simulation intelligence net neural 81; 197–99; code, of moral to (see machine learning); working and 197–98; stock for game,” “imitation play 97, 95, 53–54, 90, 52, market 74, trading, to, symbolic systems approach 106; 98, 21 and, problems “toy” 21–22, 29; 24, only do what “can 103; technology and, 52; 30, 20, meme, to do” programmed 100–101; models, comparative-priced 65–69; of, drive placed on hard cookies of, of improvement rate fast-paced legal profession 51; 45, 38, 28–30, 25–27, 38–39; search power of, 146; uses of, aspect “thinking” 30; capability of, specific 197–98. See also Internet; of, applications 99–101, 103–4;policies and, automated 92, 64–75, 90, 55, of, tracking/analysis 117; 109, 96–105, as class signifier, 178; 100; 54, shopping and, comparison targeted 115; power and, purchasing 64–75; wealth website ads based on, 117–18, 114, 165–66 110–11, 112, 109, 57, and, 88 of, 199–201; voiding 91, rights to, 65–69 Computational Statistics, 152 Statistics, Computational 19–26; 8, programming, computer 41–42; advanced 38, 13, 3, computers, 202–3 viruses, computer agency See moral conscience. 187 163, 162, conservatives, pricing Amazon behavior: consumer intellect synthetic 202; 97, 90, contracts, notations), drive hard (computer cookies antilock brakes function, 204–5; first function, brakes antilock (see self-driving 194; of, introduction price sticker vehicles); autonomous 100 components, See also smartphones 74 humans, for tournaments 90 mission (2010), wealth See also prices 100. post-Internet, 161–65 of, views different 187; 186, 82, carbon dioxide, 158, 168 158, dioxide, carbon 118 Group, Carlyle 196; costs, annual operating cars: 193 46, CDs (compact discs), 55. prices, card prepaid 46; cell phones, 179 174, 172, Bureau, Census 169 Disease Control, for Centers separate 21; 19, computers, chess-playing 63 Exchange, Chicago Mercantile 176 China, - Elections Com Federal United v. Citizens 114 58, civic responsibility, See also 119–21, 173. 118, 116, 115, 109, class, 143 (program), Crops for Robots Clever 158 131, change, climate 145 fetching, coffee See machine learning systems. cognitive 125 121, degree, college 95 51, University, Columbia 151 pilots, commercial 20 6, sense, common 44–45, 126–27 system, communications 197 195, commuters, and pre- 54; shopping, comparison 82 compassion, 98 restriction, competition 181– 106, 103, 102, advantage, competitive INDEX 232 D. E. ShawandCompany, 53, 95, 96, 97 depth perception, 42–43 deliveries. Seeshipping Deepwater Horizon. oilspill SeeBP debt, 156, 176 Data Mining, 152 data, 7, 36, 45, 48, 51, 67; commercial impor College,Dartmouth 215n9 DARPA (Defense Advanced Research dark factory, 200 cyclical unemployment, 136–37, 219n5 cyberspace, 37 customers. Seeconsumer behavior humanoid),C3PO (milquetoast 40 crowdsourcing, 136 CROPS (Clever Robots for Crops program), crop picking, 39, 141 crime, 80, 82–88 credit cards, 89, 96 CPMthousand), per (cost 71 coupons, 105 corporations: employees asagents of, Cornell University, 24 cooking, 6, 39, 47 unnormalized, 53–54 28; analysisof, speedof 53, 68, 103–4; tance of, 96–97, 98, 103; sharingof, Projects Agency), 95 143 benefits for, 14, 177, 180–81 parallel,intellect 90,tax 199–200; 80, 87; of, punishment synthetic 87–88; liability insulation, 91; moral agencyof, 181; legalpersonhoodof, 90, 215n9; as ership of, index highPBI of, 177–82; 15, family-owned vs.82–83; broad own- -

elderly people, 168–69 Egypt, ancient, 115–16 Edwards, StephenA., 114 education system, failure 45, in 153–58; Education Equity, Inc., 157 Edison, Thomas, 41, 192 economies scale, of 100 economic system, 7, absolutevs. 10–15; “Easterlin Paradox,” 225n31 duty-based normative ethics, 82 drones, 43, 44 driverless cars. Seeautonomousvehicles Dow JonesIndustrialAverage, 61–63 8–9, doctors. Seemedicalcare Disneyland tour option, VIP 165 dishwashing, 145 Dijkstra, Edgar, 3 digital recording, 193 (distributed input,DIDO distributed work sequenceand, 13, 153 teachers bysynthetic intellects and, 151; training and, 153, 157; replacement of job preparation of, learningvs. 157–58; financial system; labormarket; wealth takeover intellect of, Seealso 201–2. Silicon Valley disruptionof, 16; synthetic innovation and, 186–87; 158, 161–64, 174–76;165–66, inflation rate, 173, 175; 176, 177; 117–18, inequalityand, 12–15, expansion of, 15, 165; incentives and, 102, 103, 181, 106, 186, 161–65, 187; 116, 118; competitive advantage and, effects on, 195, 196; classand, 115, autonomousvehicles’ 175–87; 14–15, reactive needsand, 186; asset-based, output), 127 INDEX 233 specific departmentsspecific agencies and 223n10 program, insurance 168–69, 178; programs, government See 117. and, spending vs. reinvestment stock markets also assets ownership; 8–9, 61–63plunge), 38–48; technologies and, advanced 24, 11, bias and, anthropomorphic 38–48, 6, of, capabilities 87; 36–37, investments corporate 143; 84–86, 90, 85–86, 40, criminal acts and, 177; in, 46–48; future systems of, flexible 90; as independent 47–48; agents, uses of, 10–12, 91–92; from, effects labor market 143–45; 134, for legal responsibility 13, 84–85; discretion moral actions of, 203–4; for, controls need for 81; and, 135; 6, intellects, with synthetic paired by, ownership of other robots potential sensor 39; to, precursors primitive 200; status 42–43, slave 44; network for, 86 with, parallel government; government; See government. federal (FHA), Housing Administration Federal 171–72, 174 Board, Reserve Federal 51–53, 45, 57–58,financial system, 102; 90 88, fines, 46 44, firefighters, 90 Amendment, First 178 Ratings, Fitch 109 “The Rich Boy,” Scott, F. Fitzgerald, market (stock of 2010” “Flash Crash 113 109, magazine, Forbes 35–48; 5, 3, (robots), laborers forged 182 401K plans, forces See market market. free 90 speech protection, free human competition with, 73–75; stock with, human competition surveillance 52; to, moved transactions 64–75. See also computers 9, by, agency moral 114 (Seattle), 133–34, 39, 143–44; historical average of, 222n3 164, of, income 45 (FCC), electrical engineering, 41–42electrical engineering, 47 46, 41, electricity, 41 radiation, electromagnetic 203; 62, 41–45, 46, 40, domain, electronic 115 Larry, Ellison, 168 and (cap emissions trade), trading 82 81, empathy, workplace labor market; See employees. 178 Energy Star program, 223–24n15 200, 95–96, 44, entrepreneurship, 195 168, protection, environmental 178 168, Agency, Protection Environmental 170 equal opportunity, 175 146–47, planning, estate See also 81–82, 87. 79, 74–75, 9–10, ethics, 143 Union, European Music Project Museum Experience 22–23, 29 expertise, 23 expert programs), systems (computer 48 Facebook, 40 capability, face-recognition 223–24n15 Semiconductor, Fairchild 146–47 FairDocument, 171 Act Labor Standards (1917), Fair 162–63 102, 74–75, fairness, See households families. replacement laborer forged farmworkers: Commission Communications Federal INDEX 234 heuristics, 22–23 Hendrix, Jimi, 114 Hendrix, Gary, 27, 28 Heisenberg Principle, Uncertainty hedge funds, 57 map,heat 71 healthcare. Seemedicalcare happiness, 164 grocery stores, 99, 145 GPS (Global Positioning System), 6, 22, government bonds, 178 government, 4, 16, 57, 58; consumer infor Google, 48, 67, 144 Goldman Sachs, 170 global warming, 131, 158 Gini coefficient, 179–80 Gini, Corrado, 179; “Variabilità e mutabilità,” genetically modifiedorganisms, 203 GDP, 168, 176, 196; rate, growth 176 Gates, Bill, 118 futures contract, 97 fundamentalists, 163 fundamental analysisinvesting, 62 Friedman, Milton, 101, 157; “The Role of Fremer, Michael, 193 213–14n9 46, 141, 142 173, 182, 183–84 and, 180; socialwelfare and, 167–70, 171, 157; publicassetsownership 153–54, loansproposal and,job mortgage and, 14; economic incentives and, 177; mation and, 178; corporate ownership 179 Government inEducation,” 157 - IBM: intelligence development, artificial Hwang, Tim, 148 Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 113 human intelligence: aestheticproduction human agency: moral choices, 80–92; housing market, 136–37, 223n10 167–68, Housing andUrbanDevelopment housework, 6, 39, 145 house painting, 39, 43–44 households: average annualinvestment work,hours of 171–72 homeownership, 174; 167–68, mortgage Hines, Douglas, 144–45 Hilton, Paris, 171 highway safety and, driving, 141–42; (high-frequencytrading), HFT 52, 53–57, 31, 36, 150, 206 198–99, 19–20, 30; Watson computer program, 106,73–75, 200, 208–9 synthetic intellects vs., 36, 52, 54, 57, goals and, nature 87–88; of, x–xi, 3, 4; computer simulation of, 19–20, 197–99; and, 208; 36; brain and, function 23–24, 205–8 72–75, synthetic encroachment intellect on, Department, 167 effects, 174; self-driving careffects, 196 workingadults,of retirement 172–73; median income, 126, 171, 172; number income, 176; average worth, net 174, 176; terms, 13, 14, 164, 176 142,44–45, 178 61–63 8–9, model, sharpmarket drop and, 97–98; 55–57, 75, 106; asonlineretailing pricing 79, 91,61–63, 106, critiqueof, 213–14n9; INDEX 235 bilities for Our Grandchildren,” 186 Our Grandchildren,” bilities for to paid work alternatives 191; ogy and, 185–86; autonomous systems and, 131–58; 126–27, 10–12, 20, as to, threat for competition 116; salary and, average - econom 121–25; conventional jobs and, sequence education-work 12; ics and, and, workers 157–58; excess 153, 13, and, 170–71; federal from, exclusions 158; 171–72; historical 170, and, measures job 115–16, 222n3; 164, and, comparisons letters of intent to skills and (see skills); about, predictions 155; 154, 14, and, hire working and, for reasons 138–39, 140; tec- 145; 120, 116, 184–85; salaries and, 133–35; (2013) in, turnover tonic shifts and, standardization workday 137; in, 184–85; work- and, work incentives 171; See 172–74, 176. ing adult and, statistics unemployment inequality; also income (TV quiz show), 30, 36, 150, 198–99 150, 36, 30, (TVJeopardy! quiz show), 13–15, 153–57 proposal, loans mortgage job See labor market jobs. 72 70, George, John, 167 B., Lyndon Johnson, 214n8 Permanente, Kaiser ix John F., Kennedy, - Possi “Economic Maynard, John Keynes, 46–47 multipurpose, kitchen equipment, 135 Systems, Kiva 95 Byers, and Caufield Perkins, Kleiner, 23 knowledge engineers, 218n15 Randy, Komisar, 157 Labor Department, 119–27;technol- advanced labor market, 164, 222n3; median average household, household, median average 222n3; 164, assets ownership; See also 172. 171, 126, salaries 179–80; of, measurement coefficient 169–70, to, approaches redistribution See also wealth 176–87. 174, 12, in, advances 99–103; fast-paced 145–51 using, professions 46; 25–26, 45, 161–64tions to, human See also artificial intelligence; intellects synthetic intelligence; flow of free 148; 96, 95, uses of, mercial See also websites 99. information, 170 markets “imitation game” (Turing Test), 197–98 Test), (Turing game” “imitation average, historical farmworker income: 164–87; Gini 12, 3, inequality, income 144 Inc., Industrial Perception, 15 12, Industrial Revolution, 175 173, rate, inflation 54, 53, 48, 42, technology, information 98 97, 96, Group, Book Ingram - reac 186–87; 158, different innovation, 78 Services, Institutional Shareholder 26 Intel, 198. in meaning of, shift intelligence: - com 41–42, 148; 65, 64, 29, 28, Internet, 156 internships, 95, 58, 57, 55, 53, 52, banking, investment stock See assets ownership; investments. 28 IP addresses, 198 46, iPhone, 169 accounts), IRAsretirement (individual 213n7 Kapil, Jain, 150 30, Ken, Jennings, INDEX 236 machine learning(neural networking), luxury items, 165–66 117–18, LPs (vinyl records), 193 Los Angeles Times, 143 Lopez, Elvia, 143 trucking,long-haul 141–42 locality constraints, 40, 41–48 loans. Seemortgages living standards, disparityin, 165–66 line standing, 74 lifeguards, robotic, 46 life expectancy, 169 Lidar (3Dradar), 141 licenses, 89 liberals, 162–63 liability, 83, 91; of, apportionment 84, 85–86 intent,letters of 14, 154, 155 leisuretime, 174 legal system, 10, 98, 99, 195; liabilityand, learning. Seeeducation system; machine lawyers, 151 145–49, Law SchoolAdmissionsCouncil, 145 law school, 145, 148–49 law enforcement. Seecrime; legalsystem Lanier, Jaron, 7 language recognition, 27–28 language. laissez-faire, 216n6 53, 68, ethicalcodes and, 103–4; 82, 87; 152;38–39, data analysisspeedand, 147; 29–31, 24–25, 3, advances in, 4–5, 147. 199–200, 215n9;72–75, researchtools, objectives of, 88; personhoodand, 91;83–86, moral agencyand, 80, 87; learning See alsolawyers See words, shifting meanings of music, changingmeaningsof, 198 192–94, municipal bonds, 177 MR (mobilerobotics), 152 mortgages,terms of, 153–57, 164, 176 13–15, Morgan Stanley, 52–53 moral agency, 199–200, 105–6, 13, 79–92, Moore, Gordon, 26 Moody’s rating, 117, 178 Montgomery Securities, 115 monopolies, 98, 102 mobile robotics, 152 ML. MIT Technology Review, 196 MIT, 35, 24–25, 38 Minsky, Marvin, 35 military, 40, 116 middle class, 115, 118, 173 Microsoft, 114 (computer),memory 31, 26–29, 45 megapixels, 65 Medicare/Medicaid, 169 medical equipment, 89 medical care, 11, 169, 35, 149–51, 170; billing McCarthy, John, x, 19, 35 Marx, Karl, 10–11 marketing, 64–75 market forces, 4, 13, 63, 14, 55–56, 103, 156 Marconi, Guglielmo, 41 MapReduce, 51 Machine Vision, 152 machines: robots asenhanced, 37–38; 205–6; characterization205–6; of, 79–80 5, 6, 36 system, 100, 101; forged laborers and, capabilityof,thought 3, 207 197–98, 24, 29; unlimitedpotential for, 30, 141 example of, 29; symbolicsystemsvs., See machinelearning INDEX 237 synthetic intellects, 199–200 intellects, synthetic 65 to, links 97–105; automation practices, Amazon 14, of, comparison 132; 73, on, effects 100–101;54, systems public-interest (see stock stock fluctuations 56; and, markets) 182 35 assembly), for lator personhood, 90, 215n9; corporations vs. vs. corporations 215n9; 90, personhood, 136 70, persuasion, 115–16 Egypt), (ancient pharaoh 118–19 113, 58, philanthropy, 192 of, invention phonograph, website 39; of, AI recognition pictures: 66 65, pixels, 195 168, pollution reduction, 15 12, 3, poverty, 24 neurons), (programmatic preceptrons 55 cards, cell phone prepaid 71; 70, 69, advertisingbids, space prices: 113 Princeton University, 136 132, 12, productivity, 145–46, 157 11, professions, 151 11, professors, 103 72, 55, profits, 163–65 progressives, 144–45 40, prostitutes, 58 research, folding protein 79–80 psychopaths, 180–81, 15, 14, public benefit (PBI), index 163–65, 178 56, 169, public interest, 185 184, 114, 58, public service, See autonomous vehicles public transit. manipu- universal (programmable PUMA 87–88, 90–91 86, punishment, 115–16 (Egypt), pyramids - tration, 178 tration, learning employ 132; 64–76, advertising and, ment effects of, 139–40, 142; product 142; 139–40, of, ment effects See also Amazon 143. 55, and, reviews 37 rules, vehicles Nakamoto, Satoshi, 202 Satoshi, Nakamoto, 120–26, 157–58, 119, 173 Emmie, Nastor, 176 debt, national 46 Guard, National - Adminis Safety Traffic Highway National 180 parks, national 8 disasters, natural See machine networking. neural 24 programmable, 29; 27, 23, neurons, 170 Times, York New 170 Street, Wall Occupy See BP oil spill oil spill (2010). 181–82; 177–78, 136, 90, 7, online sales, Onsale.com, 96 Onsale.com, 114–15 Oracle, and Health) Safety OSHA (Occupational 168 Own Home program, Your Own 152 University, Oxford 16 Pandora, 148 paralegals, 185 work, part-time 55 25, recognition, pattern 154 14, taxes, payroll See public benefit index PBI. 193 Harry, Pearson, 14 12, pension funds, 127 Steve, Perlman, See autonomous personal public transit. INDEX 238 Rockefeller, John D., 200 Rochester, Nathaniel, 19 robots. Seeforged laborers robotic arm, 6, 35 Robot, Robot, andHwang (lawfirm), risk, 8, 55, 137; 55–56, government rating rights, humanvs. of person, artificial retirement, 12, 14, 117, 170, 174; income retail sales: Amazon asmarketplace for, resource allocation, 73–75 repetitivetasks, 6, 39 remote control, 12, 43 recordings, 192 recession (2009), 113, 120 117–18, radio, 16, signalsadjustment, 41–42; 127; racial discrimination, 89, 168, 222n10 QuickTime, 127 queues, 74 quantum physics, 213–14n9 life,quality of 173, 167–69, 174 147–48 of, 178 199–200 also SocialSecurity line betweenpre- and post-, 184. See generation for, 169, 174–75, 177, 182–84; consumer behavior; onlinesales; prices 139; shippingand, 100, 101, 141. Seealso also Walmart); revenue peremployee, physical stores and, 7, 16, 48, 97, 139(see luxury itemsand, 165–66; 117–18, 140;138–39, jobskillsand, 142–43; 54, 100; jobmarket predictions and, 99, comparison shoppersand, 101–2; mission, 41 allocation,spectrum 45; wavestrans - Shaw, Dave (KingQuant), 58, 95, 51–53, sex workerstoys, and 144–45 sensors, 194, 205; applications of, 4, 5; net self stocking, 40 self-driving vehicles. Seeautonomous segregation, 168, 222n10 SEC (SecuritiesandExchange Commis- Seattle, 114 science fiction, ix–x, xii science, ix, 114 Schrodinger’s cat, 213n9 schools. Seeeducation system Scheinman, Victor, 35 savings. Seeassetsownership sanitation, 169 San Francisco State University, 121, 158 S&P 500E-mini, 62 salespeople, 139 salaries, 116, 120, 145, 172 safety: autonomousvehicles, 89, 142, 195; SAAS (software-as-a-service), 43 Rutter, Brad, 150 R202 (mechanicalfactotum), 40 Rothschild, Nathan Mayer, 58 Rosenblatt, Frank, 24 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 170 Rolling Stone(magazine), 170 Rocket Fuel, 67–71, 136; 64–65, founding/ 96, 97, 103 work of, 44; recognition 42–43, by, 39 vehicles sion), 8, 63 61–62, 44–45 142, 178;traffic, 195; workplace, 37–38, commercial pilots, 151; highway, 44–45, of,current worth 72 - INDEX 239 - 27, 35, 38, 51, 52–53, 85 51, 72, 38, 35, 27, 178, 177, base of, diverse members vs. See 184. 181–82; and, vesting restricted also assets ownership trading computer-programmed 54; 53, 91, 53–58, 61–63, 52, 90, 74, decisions, analysis fundamental 106; 98, 97, 95, 58; of, purpose putative 62; to, approach 8–9, 61–63 (2010) in, sharp drop 24 tion of symbols, 103–6, 134–35; as building of, Amazon assets owner 198; 90, artificial people, 90–91, 199–200;ship and, capabilities 199–201; 146–48, 151, 141, 134, 70, 6, 5, of, 161–62, 106, of, advantage competitive Sputnik, ix Sputnik, 27 SRI International, 178 & Poor’s, Standard 165–66 of living, standard x–xi, Artificial Lab, Intelligence Stanford 148–49 course, Informatics Legal Stanford 16 x, (TV series), Trek Star family 174–78; 14–15, 58, stockholders, maxim, sell high” “buy low, stock markets: 143 pickers, strawberry 20–21 programming, structural 137 unemployment, structural 156 job mortgage loans vs., student loans, 161–62, 186 Super Bowl, 215n9 90, U.S., Court, Supreme 35 6, surgery, 64–75, 91 9, surveillance, 44 robotics, swarm 27 Symantec, - predefini 29; 21–22, 25, symbolic systems, 194 (music), synthesizer 197–209; 5–11, 20, intellects, synthetic and, 141–42, 177; “free,” 101; warehouse warehouse 101; “free,” 141–42, 177; and, 144 stacking and, 223–24n15; 144, of disruption - indus 127, 109; personal wealth from, 16; tries by, 184 by, vesting stock restricted intellects to training 136–38, 158; 142–43, 153, 152, 132–33, 14, 13, 153–57acquire, 198 46, 31, 28, 26–27, and, vation as intellects synthetic 74–75; and, 72–75, 91–92, to, 199–200;threats 114–15. 109–10, See also wealth and, agency moral 182–85 vs., investing 192–93Mechanical Music,” shipping, 39; costs of, 100, 101; delivery delivery 101; 100, of, costs 39; shipping, 43 ShotSpotter system, 64–65, 95–96, x–xi, startups, Valley Silicon 112 Paul, Simon, See synthetic intelligence. simulated 7 servers,” “siren 198 Siri (Apple iPhone app), 134, 132, obsolescence of, 119–26, 163; skills, 86 Codes, Slave 201 self-purchase, slave inno- 115–16; fast-paced 105, smartphones, fairness 48; 42, 37, 10, 9, social behavior, See class social class. 173–75; private 169, 14, Social Security, 117 social status, 43 (SAAS), software-as-a-service 44 solar power, 39 song identification, 42–43 39, sound recognition, “The Menace of 208; John Phillip, Sousa, 207 116, 114, ix, space exploration, 114–15, 161–63sports, INDEX 240 2001: ASpace Odyssey(film), x Turing Test, 197–98 Turing, Alan, 199; 197–98, “Computing trusts, 117, 200 TrueCompanion, 144–45 truck deliveries, 141–42 Trebek, Alex, 36 Transportation Department, 44–45 transportation. Seeautonomousvehicles training. See skills; vocationaltraining traffic-control systems, 45 Tracking Angle(musicmagazine), 193 Torrance, Mark, 64, 67, 72 70–71, Ticketmaster, 73–74 Thurlow, Edward, 87 3D radar (Lidar), 141 thinking: machinecapabilityfor, 3, television, 41–42 technological revolution, Seealso 29–30. taxi services, 16 taxes, 170, 175, 177, incentives, 180–81; 14, synthetic intellects (continued ) Machinery andIntelligence,”Machinery 197, 198 shifted meaningof,197–99; 198 specific applications 15, 154, 167, 183 control of, 12 realism199–200, of, 205–6; 197; remote 87; moral agencyof, 105–6, 80–92, machine learningprograms and, legal personhoodof, 199–200; 90–91, 30, 31, 36, 150, 198; individualityof, 88; IBM’s 199–208; 72–75, Watson as, 26, dangerpotential of,87–89; 40, 7–11, 90, 91, crimecapabilityof, 199–200; 186, 187; corporation parallels with, water quality, 168 Waterloo, battle (1815), of 58 warehouses, box unload- 134–35; 101–2, Walmart, average reve 139–40, 142–43; - Wall 95 Street, 57–58, 51–53, wages. Seeincome; salaries Waddell &Reed, 61–62 V2V (vehicle-to-vehicle communications volunteer work. Seepublicservice vocationaltraining: employer collab viruses, computer, 202–3 lawoffice,virtual 148 vinyl records, 193 attribution,viewthrough 70 videos, AIrecognition of, 39 VCR recording (TV device), 46 vaccines, 169 USA Cycling, of, bailout 115 University Pennsylvania, of 99 University Michigan, of 99 unemployment, 3, 12, 13, 120, 136–37, Uber, 16 144 ing, 39; chaoticstoragetracking, 135, numbers, 116 nue peremployee, 139, 177; employee protocol), 45 education vs., 153–57 oration with, 13, general 14, 153–54; 170–71 172; structural, 137;two categories of, interest and, 164; risein(1995–2012), personal choice, 177, 170–71, 185; public 136–37, 219n5; factors in, 142, as 172–73; 169–74; BLSof, definition 170; cyclical, - INDEX 241 communication, 126–27communication, 37–38 weeding, 144 weeding, 115 Thom, Weisel, 170 recipients, welfare 58 of, Duke Wellington, 150 Wellpoint, high-bandwidth wireless wide-area 44 extinguishers, wildfire 122–23, 124 119, Winster.com, 45 communications, wireless 203 191–92,198, of, meanings shifted words, See labor market workforce. 119–21 working poor, 172 working women, 171 balance, work-life robot danger potential, 48; workplace, 170 Administration), Progress (Works WPA 67 Yahoo, 48 Butler, William Yeats, 117 Mark, Zandi, 223n15 Mark, Zuckerberg, - wealthy and, 11, 111–13, 11, 116–19, 118–19, and, wealthy accumula- 164–65; intellects’ synthetic 91–92; holders of, top 1 percent tion of, 116 111–13; median salary and, worker 11, of visits surveillance 64–72; electronic 64–75; individually ads, targeted 9, to, 66 65, 64–75; user identifier, 31, 36, 39, 150, 198 150, 39, 36, 31, 14–15, benefits of, 174–76; ownership, - dis 58; 165–66; and, civic responsibility 180–87; 164–65, 176, 169–70, parities in, in creating, factors 186; distribution of, 86–87; Forbes distribution of, fairer 12; - trans HFT program 113; 109, of, ranking embodiments lifestyle 91; 57, of, fer item luxury 114; 110–11, 112, 109, 57, of, 117–18, 165–66; sales and, philanthropy 114–15; 118–19; power from, 113, 58, and, super 117; spending of, vs. reinvestment websites: advertising sale of space on, advertising sale of space on, websites: 127 WebTV, Watson (IBM AI computer program), 26, 26, (IBM program), AI computer Watson 19 Lab (IBM), Research Watson assets from 132; 109–19, 127, 12, 3, wealth,