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Communication and Consumer Confidence: the Roles of Mass Media, Interpersonal Communication, and Local Context

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Communication and Consumer Confidence: the Roles of Mass Media, Interpersonal Communication, and Local Context COMMUNICATION AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: THE ROLES OF MASS MEDIA, INTERPERSONAL COMMUNICATION, AND LOCAL CONTEXT DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Lewis R. Horner, M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2008 Dissertation Committee: Dr. Gerald M. Kosicki, Adviser Dr. Carroll J. Glynn _______________________________ Dr. Herbert F. Weisberg Adviser Communication Graduate Program Copyright by Lewis R. Horner 2008 ABSTRACT The purpose of this study was to examine the role of different channels of information on individual consumer confidence. Individual consumer confidence is a person’s expectations of future economic conditions. Consumer confidence has economic and political consequences for society. Scholars do not agree on the role of different sources of information in consumer confidence, particularly the role of mass media. Many scholars consider the economy and unemployment, which is known to influence consumer confidence, to be obtrusive, meanings that individuals can acquire issue information from direct experience or observation. Evidence supports both news and direct experience or observation as significant sources of information. This study examined the effects of attention to news about the economy, interpersonal discussion of the economy, and local unemployment rates on individual consumer confidence. Data were from six months of the Buckeye State Poll during a period of worsening economic conditions in 2001 and 2002. The survey included a unique set of attention to news about the economy measures that focused on different geographic domains and types of media. Local unemployment rates were matched to individuals based on county of residence. ii Both personal economic experience and attention to news about the economy were significant predictors of individual consumer confidence. Personal economic experience was measured by household unemployment. The majority of households do not experience unemployment, meaning the attention to news about the economy should provide their information. However, attention to news about the economy had a small effect. Of the different forms of attention to news about the economy, attention to news about the local economy on television had the strongest effect. Interpersonal discussion of the economy had no effect. Observation of the economy via local unemployment rates had an unexpected relationship with confidence. Increasing unemployment over a twelve-month period was often associated with higher levels of confidence, not lower levels. This may have been due to the historic circumstances following the September 11 terrorist attacks or because of seasonal factors in some of the unemployment data. The study concludes with a discussion of its limitations and suggestions for future research. iii For Ann iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS To everyone who has helped me get to this point, mere thanks are not enough. Jerry Kosicki, my adviser, made this dissertation possible. In 2001 Jerry was the PI for the Buckeye State Poll, and he asked Ida Mirzaie and me to come up with some additional questions to add to the economic component of BSP. I contributed four questions on attention to media based on some thoughts I had, not guided by any theory. Those questions piqued my interest in consumer confidence and are central to this dissertation. More than that, Jerry has been my teacher, adviser for both my master’s thesis and this dissertation, boss at the Center for Survey Research, colleague and friend, and for all of these I thank him. Carroll Glynn and Herb Weisberg were willing to share their time and expertise with to me even though they are both over-committed department chairs. It was a privilege to work with them. They are first-rate scholars and fine individuals. I thank them both. Special thanks to the former interviewers at the Center for Survey Research who collected these data and to the respondents who were willing to participate in the interviews. Thanks to the Columbus Dispatch for making these data available for research. Thanks, too, to the excellent University Libraries. v In 2004, Elizabeth Stasny convinced Doug Wolfe and Tom Bishop to hire me as a graduate assistant at the Statistical Consulting Service. Everyone in the Statistics department was good to me, especially Jeni Squiric and Paul Brower. Chris Holloman, now director of the Statistical Consulting Service, gave me valuable advice on multilevel modeling and how I might set my models up in SPSS. I recommend the Statistical Consulting Service to everyone. I cannot thank the folks at the Statistics department enough. Former bosses Rob Daves, Rossana Armson, and Paul Lavrakas gave me some wonderful opportunities and made me a better researcher. Their influence is in here. They have my warmest thanks. Matt Courser, who was my colleague at the Center for Survey Research, made it his mission to be my one-man support team. He’s a good friend. Thanks, Matt. Breakfast? Finally, my wife, Ann, has endured piles of books, piles of papers, and the detritus I tend to create. She has shouldered more burdens than she should have and has been there for me. I look forward to her smile when I graduate. Thank you, Ann, for everything. England? vi VITA September 23, 1956 .........................Born – Kenton, Ohio 1979 .....................................B.S. Allied Medical Professions The Ohio State University 1989 .....................................M.A., Journalism The Ohio State University 1999-2004 ................................Research Associate Center for Survey Research The Ohio State University 2004-2006 ................................Graduate Research Assistant, Statistical Consulting Service, The Ohio State University PUBLICATIONS Horner, L. R. (2008). Web Surveys. In P. J. Lavrakas (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods. Newbury Park, CA: Sage. Wright-Isak, C., Faber, R. J., & Horner, L. R. (1997). Comprehensive measurement of advertising effectiveness: Notes from the marketplace. In W. D. Wells (Ed.), Measuring Advertising Effectiveness (pp. 3-12). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Communication vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract .............................................................. ii Dedication ............................................................ iv Acknowledgments .......................................................v Vita................................................................. vii List of Figures ......................................................... xi Chapters: 1. Introduction......................................................1 2. Conceptual Framework .............................................5 Issue Obtrusiveness ..........................................5 The Role of Media in Issue Concern . 5 Obtrusiveness Research .................................9 Theoretical issues................................9 Operational issues. ..............................11 Channels of information. .........................13 Local context and obtrusiveness. 14 Contextual Effects ....................................15 Local information flow. ..........................16 Summary ...........................................19 Consumer Confidence .......................................20 Obtrusiveness and Consumer Confidence . 20 Economic Implications of Consumer Confidence . 21 Political Implications of Consumer Confidence . 23 Controversy over the Role of Media . 26 The Development of Consumer Confidence Measures . 28 Conceptual considerations. 31 Operational considerations. 34 Consumer confidence indexes. 37 viii Factors Affecting Consumer Confidence and Perceptions of the Economy .......................... 40 Personal Economic Circumstances. 41 Group Membership. ............................. 43 Political Predispositions. 44 Information.......................................... 45 Interpersonal Discussion.......................... 46 Organizational Communication. 47 Mass Media.................................... 47 Mass Media and the Economy........................... 48 Negative coverage of the economy. 53 Political bias in coverage of the economy. 54 Local Context........................................ 55 Local information flow. .......................... 56 Attention, Adaption, and the Timing of Research . 57 Summary and Hypotheses .............................. 59 3. Method ........................................................ 67 Data ..................................................... 67 Measures ................................................. 69 Consumer Confidence ................................. 69 Personal Financial Circumstances . 70 Group Membership ................................... 71 Political Partisanship .................................. 73 Information Channels.................................. 73 Local Economic Context ............................... 75 Analysis Plan .............................................. 78 4. Analysis and Results .............................................. 81 Individual Consumer Confidence . 82 Analysis....................................... 82 Relevant hypotheses. ............................ 94 Current Conditions Component . 99 Analysis....................................... 99 Relevant hypotheses. ........................... 103 ix Expectations Component .............................. 106 Analysis...................................... 106 Relevant hypotheses. ..........................
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