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East Africa Finacial Review March 2016 Our Sponsorship Partners

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East Africa Finacial Review March 2016 Our Sponsorship Partners EAST AFRICA FINACIAL REVIEW MARCH 2016 OUR SPONSORSHIP PARTNERS: PART I: KEY MARKET INDICATORS Burbidge Capital Limited Head Office: Key Africa & Global Equity Indices Performance 4th Flr, Nivina Towers, Westlands Road, London Office: Nairobi, Kenya i4 Albany, Piccadilly Tel: +254 (0) 20 2100 102 London, W1J 0AX Equity Index 2-Jan-16 1-Feb-16 29-Feb-16 % Ch. m/m % Ch. YTD Tel: +44 (0) 207 099 1452 Uganda Office: [email protected] NSE 20 (KE) 4,040.75 3,773.17 3,862.24 2.4% -4.4% Suite FC6 1st Floor, Crown House FTSE NSE Kenya 25 186.30 173.45 179.29 3.4% -3.8% 4a Kampala Road, DSEI (TZ) 2,334.00 2,291.12 2,376.83 3.7% 1.8% P.O . BOX 3331Kampala, Uganda. TEL: + 256 (0) 794 476 967 ALSIUG 1,764.00 1,760.00 1,749.00 -0.6% -0.9% www.burbidgecapital.com NGSEINDEX 28,642.25 23,916.15 24,570.73 2.7% -14.2% EGX 30 7,006.01 5,992.72 6,146.93 2.6% -12.3% CONTACTS OF THE EDITORIAL TEAM JALSH (SA) 50,693.76 49,141.94 49,415.31 0.6% -2.5% S&P 500 2,043.94 1,940.24 1,932.23 -0.4% -5.5% FTSE 100 6,242.32 6,083.79 6,097.09 0.2% -2.3% Edward Burbidge, CFA Key Africa & Global Currency Performance Chief Executive Officer [email protected] Currency 2-Jan-16 1-Feb-16 29-Feb-16 % Ch. m/m % Ch. YTD KES / USD 102.20 103.07 101.55 1.48% 0.64% Vimal Parmar, CFA TZS / USD 2,155.00 2,202.84 2,187.08 0.72% -1.49% Head of Equities and Debt UGX / USD 3,367.00 3,471.98 3,343.92 3.69% 0.69% [email protected] ETB / USD 21.01 21.26 21.32 -0.30% -1.49% ZAR / USD 15.46 15.89 15.75 0.89% -1.86% NGN / USD 199.00 198.96 199.24 -0.14% -0.12% EGP / USD 7.83 7.83 7.83 0.05% 0.04% GBP/USD 0.68 0.70 0.72 -2.29% -5.63% Nicholas Kiprotich Head of IT & Social Media EUR / USD 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.32% -0.03% [email protected] Key Events & Press – East Africa Kenya's Stock Index posts best week in 3 years on inflows Pension funds urged to keep NSE equities despite poor 2015 returns Gerald Njugi Higher lending boosts Kenya's HF Group's 2015 profit by a quarter Senior Analyst - Corporate Finance Centum's Rea Vipingo coastal city deepens foray into Real Estate [email protected] Centum gets Kenya dealership for the high-end Courvoisier cognac Japan loans Kenya KES 40 billion for construction of 140MW plant Tullow discovers traces of oil in Kenya’s Kerio Valley Tanzania makes big onshore natural gas discovery 15 IPOs expected across Africa in 2016 Private funds inject KES4.3tr in African firms Lello Halake Black Mountain inks HoA to acquire Namakera Mining Research Analyst [email protected] ADVISORY SERVICES: A corporate finance firm licensed by the Capital Markets Authority and a Originating and structuring Equity and Debt capital raising, IPOs, M & A transactions, licensed Nominated Advisor by the Nairobi Securities Exchange creating long Strategic Options advisory, PE advisory and Independent Research services. term advisory relationships & solutions across Eastern Africa. NAIROBI KAMPALA DAR –ES SALAAM ADDIS ABABA KIGALI LONDON The private bank for historic motor racing Proud sponsors of: Le Mans Classic; Classic Endurance Racing; Spa Classic; Dix Mille Tours; Grand Prix de l’Age d’Or; Vallelunga Classic; Monza Historic; Algarve Classic; Donington Historic Festival; RAC Woodcote Trophy; Salon Privé; The HERO Cup; The Grand Tour; Kop Hill Climb; London to Brighton Run; EFG DolderClassics; Zurich Classic Car Award; Haciendas Classic Chopard Rally, Colombia. www.efgmotorracing.com facebook.com/EFGInternational Photo: John Retter Practitioners of the craft of private banking EFG is the marketing name for EFG International and its subsidiaries. EFG International’s global private banking network includes offices in Zurich, Geneva, London, Channel Islands, Luxembourg, Monaco, Madrid, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Taipei, Miami, Nassau, Grand Cayman, Bogotá and Montevideo. www.efginternational.com EFG - racing - 190.5x254mm + 3mm bleed - back cover - quadri - publication: Burbridge Capital, March 2016 (16.03.2016) PART II: MONTHLY COMMENTARY We feel the stirrings of some real confidence in the region, in particular Kenya with the currency strengthening, interest rates falling and the equity markets begining to rally after last year’s sell off. Dealflow continues at a great pace and we forsee a strong year ahead, including a pick up in public markets activity in Q2 & H2 2016. In private equity 5 investment deals (12 deals YTD) were announced in the real estate, media services and infrastructure sectors in Kenya while Tanzania recorded one deal in the manufacturing (plastics) sectors. In M&A we saw 3 deals (9 deals YTD) in the construction (Kenya), petroleum (Tanzania & DRC) and in the banking sector in Uganda. BC’s deal of the month was Pan-African private equity firm AfricInvest’s investment in Tanzania-based plastics manufacturer Silafrica Plastics and Packaging International Limited. Prior to the investment, Silafrica was wholly-owned by the Sumaria Group, a conglomerate with interests in numerous industries across Africa. (see Deals on page 5). In the energy sector, Kenya and Japan signed a USD 408 million loan agreement that will go towards building a 140 megawatt (MW) geothermal power plant that is expected to be operational within the next two years. Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen), will build the plant, known as Olkaria V, which its construction is expected to begin in July, with the supply of electricity to the national grid expected by the end of 2018. In the oil and gas sector, Tullow Oil announced that it had discovered oil traces at its Cheptuket 1 Well in Kerio Valley, raising hopes of Kenya's oil reserves, although further test have to be carried out to prove the resource. Pancontinental Oil & Gas announced the closure of its previously announced private placements of USD 700,000 to be used for exploration activities, business development, payment of expenses and general working capital purposes. In neighboring Tanzania, Dodsal Group announced the discovery of an additional 2.17 TCF of possible natural gas deposits raising the nation's total estimated recoverable natural gas reserves to more than 57 TCF. The NSE 20 share index registered a slight 2.4% gain in February (-4.4% YTD) to close at 3862.24 points. Equities turnover declined 21.7% to USD 99.36 million from January’s USD 126.92 million. Large caps continue to dominate trading with Safaricom, KCB, EABL and Equity Bank registering turnovers of USD 20.35 million, USD 19.14 million, USD 18.61 million and USD 10.84 million respectively. The bourse registered a net foreign inflow of USD 6.08 million with KCB recording the largest net inflow of USD 3.26 million. The Bank outperformed local peers posting a 12.1% y/y EPS growth. Other counters that registered top foreign buys include CFC Stanbic (USD 1.34 million) and Jubilee Holdings (USD 1.00 million). Kengen was the top gainer up 16.7% in the month with its performance supported by higher earnings as a result of its continued effort to increase production capacity with focus on renewable sources of energy. Edward Burbidge, CFA Chief Executive Officer, & BC EA Review Team OTHER KEY MARKET INDICATORS Interest Rates Inflation and GDP growth Country/Region Current Base Rate Previous Base Rate Country / Region GDP Inflation 2016 2017 2016 2017 Central Bank of Kenya (Kenya) 11.50% 11.50% Kenya 6.0% 7.0% 5.9% 5.1% Bank of Uganda (Uganda) 17.00% 17.00% Uganda 5.5% 5.8% 6.5% 5.9% Bank of Tanzania (Tanzania) 7.58% 7.58% Tanzania 7.0% 7.0% 5.9% 5.1% South African Reserve Bank (RSA) 7.00% 6.75% Nigeria 4.3% 4.5% 9.7% 8.8% Central Bank of Nigeria (Nigeria) 11.00% 11.00% South Africa 1.3% 2.1% 5.9% 5.6% Central Bank of Egypt (Egypt) 10.75% 9.25% Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3% 4.9% 7.1% 6.4% Bank of England (UK) 0.50% 0.50% UK 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 2.0% Federal Reserve Bank (USA) 0.25% - 0.5% 0.25% - 0.5% USA 2.8% 2.8% 1.1% 1.8% European Central Bank (EU) 0.00% 0.05% Euro Area 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% Source: IMF The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient” - Warren Buffet BC EA REVIEW MARCH 2016 | 3 Interview with Alykhan Nathoo of Helios on their Exit From Equity Bank as companies seek a private equity partner, they will be much more discerning in the qualities of the partner that they will ultimately choose; ability to provide connectivity – especially across borders; does the private equity firm have a good reputation; do they have a team that understands the nature of the operating environment, and are they fundamentally An Equity branch in Nairobi good partners to work with, in good times and in bad”. What was the investment thesis / motivation behind the deal? Will there be increasing Private Equity capital into the East African region in the medium term? First, there was a large market opportunity to bank the unbanked and therefore drive financial inclusion within Kenya.
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