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The Ramco Cements Estimate Change CMP: INR802 TP: INR750 (-6%) Neutral

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The Ramco Cements Estimate Change CMP: INR802 TP: INR750 (-6%) Neutral 3 November 2020 2QFY21 Results Update | Sector: Cement The Ramco Cements Estimate change CMP: INR802 TP: INR750 (-6%) Neutral TP change Beneficiary of South production discipline Rating change Retain Neutral on valuation pricing in strong EPS growth Bloomberg TRCL IN The Ramco Cements’ (TRCL) 2QFY21 results highlight the benefits of high Equity Shares (m) 236 cement prices in South India, which led to the highest ever cement EBITDA/t M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 189.1 / 2.5 at INR1,895 (+94% YoY). Volumes, however, declined 19% YoY due to weak 52-Week Range (INR) 883 / 457 cement demand in South India. 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 5/27/1 We raise our FY21/FY22E EPS by 26%/5%, factoring in a strong realization 12M Avg Val (INR M) 513 outlook on the back of a strong production discipline in South. However, we retain our Neutral rating on 12.7x FY22E EV/EBITDA pricing in growth. Financial Snapshot (INR bn) Y/E Mar 2020 2021E 2022E Strong realization leads to EBITDA beat despite weak volumes Sales 53.4 54.5 63.2 Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood at -4%/+52%/+40% YoY to EBITDA 11.1 15.9 16.6 Adj. PAT 6.0 8.5 8.3 INR12.6b/INR4.4b/INR2.4b, v/s our estimate of -3%/ +28%/ +28%. The beat EBITDA Margin (%) 20.8 29.2 26.3 was led by higher-than-expected realization at INR5,558/t (est. INR5,514/t). Adj. EPS (INR) 25.5 35.9 35.0 Sales volumes declined 19% YoY to 2.21mt (v/s est. 2.45mt) as sales were EPS Gr. (%) 18.1 40.7 -2.5 BV/Sh. (INR) 209 241 273 impacted by lockdown restrictions and heavy rains in South India. Ratios Cement realization surprised with a 5% QoQ increase to INR5,558/t (+18% Net D:E 0.6 0.5 0.4 YoY; v/s est. INR5,154/t). This was on account of strong cement prices in RoE (%) 12.8 16.0 13.6 South India and higher share of premium products (~12% of trade sales), led RoCE (%) 9.4 11.1 10.3 Payout (%) 11.8 9.7 10.0 by an uptick in trade sales volumes. Valuations Cost/t (incl. windmills) declined to INR3,688/t (-2% YoY), led by a) lower raw P/E (x) 31.4 22.3 22.9 material cost (on improvement in the blending ratio) at INR731/t (flat YoY) P/BV (x) 3.8 3.3 2.9 EV/EBITDA(x) 18.0 12.9 12.7 and b) lower power and fuel cost at INR824/t (-17% YoY) on account of low- EV/ton (USD) 142 132 130 cost fuel inventory. On the other hand, other expenses declined to INR656/t Div. Yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.4 (-2% YoY) on overhead cost rationalization. Employee cost, though, FCF Yield (%) -6.2 2.1 2.8 increased to INR498/t (+38% YoY) as TRCL rolled out increments to Shareholding pattern (%) employees effective from April 2020. As On Sep-20 Jun-20 Sep-19 Cement EBITDA/t improved to INR1,895/t (+94% YoY), the highest ever, and Promoter 42.6 42.7 42.7 was +44% v/s our est. of INR1,319/t. DII 27.0 27.9 25.0 OCF stood at INR7.9b in 1HFY21 v/s 1.5b in 1HFY20. FII 7.6 8.9 11.7 1HFY21 revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood at -14%/+10%/-4% YoY to Others 22.8 20.6 20.6 INR23.0b/INR7.0b/INR3.5b as volumes declined 24% YoY to 4.15mt. FII Includes depository receipts Highlights from management commentary The company implemented various cost reduction measures to lower overhead expenses in 2QFY21. Capacity expansion update: The integrated plant in Kurnool and 1.5mt clinker in Jayanthipuram should get commissioned by Mar’21, as guided earlier. On the other hand, the 1.0mt GU in Kurnool, along with a railway siding and 12MW WHRS, is expected to be commissioned in FY22. Railway sidings were commissioned at Kolaghat/Odisha in Sep’20/Oct’20. In Jayanthipuram, out of 27MW of proposed WHRS, a unit of 9MW was commissioned in Sep’20, while another 9MW each was due for commissioning in Dec’20 and Mar’21. Capex stood at INR6.85b for 1HFY21. Balance capex of INR8.8b would be incurred on ongoing projects. Amit Murarka - Research analyst ([email protected]) Basant Joshi - Research analyst ([email protected]) 3 September 2019 1 Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. The Ramco Cements Gross debt was down INR1.04b in 1HFY21 to INR29.20b as of Sep’20. Average cost of debt was down to 6.51% p.a. in 2QFY21 from 7.36% p.a. in 2QFY20. Valuation and view TRCL has been gaining market share in its operating regions (South/East), led by aggressive marketing and new product launches. While volumes should remain weak even in 3QFY21, we expect recovery in FY22 driving a 4.5% CAGR over FY20–22E. With higher volumes, however, we expect industry competitive intensity to be higher, which could pressure cement prices. The stock trades at 12.7x FY22E EV/EBITDA and USD130/t capacity, which are at a significant premium to peers. We value it at 12x FY22E EV/EBITDA (in line with 10-yr average) to arrive at TP of INR750. Maintain Neutral. Quarterly Performance (INR m) Y/E March FY20 FY21 FY20 FY21E FY21 Var. 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2QE (%) Sales Dispatches (m ton) 2.70 2.72 2.84 2.93 1.94 2.21 2.70 3.34 11.20 10.19 2.45 -10 YoY Change (%) 3.4 10.3 3.5 -10.9 -28.2 -18.9 -5.0 14.0 0.7 -9.0 -10.0 Realization (INR/ton) 4,989 4,708 4,475 4,725 5,284 5,558 5,308 5,126 4,718 5,298 5,154 8 YoY Change (%) 10.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 5.9 18.1 18.6 8.5 3.7 12.3 9.5 QoQ Change (%) 7.5 -5.6 -4.9 5.6 11.8 5.2 -4.5 -3.4 -2.5 Net Sales 13,698 13,129 12,746 13,899 10,418 12,570 14,360 17,183 53,435 54,531 12,897 -3 YoY Change (%) 13.7 11.2 5.6 -9.1 -23.9 -4.3 12.7 23.6 4.3 2.1 -1.8 EBITDA 3,452 2,915 1,995 2,793 2,600 4,420 4,286 4,621 11,117 15,927 3,444 28 Margins (%) 25.2 22.2 15.6 20.1 25.0 35.2 29.8 26.9 20.8 29.2 26.7 8.5 Depreciation 758 765 797 833 844 855 935 1,009 3,153 3,642 884 Interest 135 147 215 216 299 265 250 254 714 1,069 250 Other Income 223 129 119 114 101 83 90 99 622 373 110 PBT before EO expense 2,782 2,132 1,101 1,858 1,557 3,383 3,192 3,457 7,872 11,589 2,420 40 Extra-Ord expense 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PBT 2,782 2,132 1,101 1,858 1,557 3,383 3,192 3,457 7,872 11,589 2,420 40 Tax 862 450 153 396 461 1,026 766 876 1,861 3,129 581 Rate (%) 31.0 21.1 13.9 21.3 29.6 30.3 24.0 25.3 23.6 27.0 24.0 Reported PAT 1,920 1,682 948 1,462 1,096 2,358 2,426 2,580 6,011 8,460 1,839 28 Adj PAT 1,920 1,682 948 1,462 1,096 2,358 2,426 2,580 6,011 8,460 1,839 28 YoY Change (%) 53.6 46.9 -6.2 -13.2 -42.9 40.2 155.9 76.5 18.1 40.7 9.4 Margins (%) 14.0 12.8 7.4 10.5 10.5 18.8 16.9 15.0 11.2 15.5 14.3 (INR/t) Per ton analysis (incl Windmills) Net realization 5,068 4,820 4,482 4,740 5,370 5,688 5,315 5,140 4,770 5,349 5,261 8.1 YoY (%) 10.0 0.8 2.0 2.0 6.0 18.0 18.6 8.4 3.6 12.1 9.1 RM Cost 743 733 834 805 972 731 780 808 780 815 820 -11 Employee Expenses 327 362 339 288 502 498 389 332 329 415 396 26 Power, Oil & Fuel 984 996 911 868 779 824 872 887 938 849 900 -8 Freight and Handling Outward 1,040 990 996 1,037 1,040 978 1,008 1,032 1,016 1,016 1,070 -9 Other Expenses 696 668 700 790 737 656 680 699 715 692 670 -2 Total Expenses 3,791 3,750 3,780 3,788 4,030 3,688 3,729 3,758 3,777 3,787 3,856 -4 EBITDA 1,277 1,070 701 952 1,340 2,000 1,586 1,382 992 1,562 1,405 42 Cement EBITDA (ex Windmills) 1,217 977 714 955 1,283 1,895 1,598 1,383 1,083 1,532 1,319 44 3 November 2020 2 3 Key exhibits November 2020 Exhibit 3: Exhibit 2QFY17 3,493 34.5 3QFY17 2,690 28.7 4QFY17 2,429 23.9 Margins 1QFY18 2,781 27.4 2QFY18 2,908 27.3 m) (INR EBITDA improved by 10.2 by improved 3QFY18 2,276 21.6 4QFY18 2,694 21.5 1QFY19 2,350 19.5 2QFY19 2,442 20.7 2: Exhibit 3QFY19 2,110 17.5 1: Exhibit ppQoQ Source: MOFSL, Company MOFSL, Source: 4QFY19 3,220 21.1 2QFY17 4,790 Margin (%) 1QFY18 2.2 4 1QFY20 3,452 25.2 Realization Realization 3QFY17 4,696 2QFY20 2,915 22.2 2QFY18 2.2 6 Volumes declined by19 3QFY20 1,995 15.6 4QFY17 4,450 4QFY20 2,793 20.1 3QFY18 2.3 15 1QFY18 4,607 1QFY21 2,600 25.0 18 up was 4QFY18 20 2QFY21 4,420 35.2 2QFY18 4,783 2.7 Volume (MT) Exhibit 4: Exhibit 3QFY18 4,606 % 1QFY19 2.6 22 2QFY17 1,725 YoY % YoY in 2 in YoY % 3QFY17 1,357 4QFY18 4,571 Realization (INR/ton) Realization 2QFY19 2.5 15 / 5%/ QoQin 2 4QFY17 1,067 EBITDA/t Blended 1QFY19 4,537 1QFY18 1,293 3QFY19 2.7 21 QFY21 2QFY18 1,351 2QFY19 4,622 3QFY18 1,001 4QFY19 3.3 20 3QFY19 4,392 QFY21 4QFY18 985 4QFY19 4,640 1QFY20 2.7 3 Growth YoY (%) 1QFY19 899 was 2QFY19 989 1QFY20 4,989 2QFY20 2.7 10 up49 3QFY19 768 2QFY20 4,708 Source: MOFSL, Company MOFSL, Source: Source: MOFSL, Company MOFSL, Source: % QoQ 4QFY19 979 Company MOFSL, Source: 3QFY20 2.8 4 1QFY20 1,277 3QFY20 4,475 Cements Ramco The 4QFY20 2.9 -11 2QFY20 1,070 4QFY20 4,725 3QFY20 701 1.9 1QFY21 -28 4QFY20 952 1QFY21 5,284 1QFY21 1,340 2QFY21 5,558 2QFY21 2.2 -19 3 2QFY21 2,000 The Ramco Cements Exhibit 5: Key performance indicators – per ton analysis INR/t 2QFY21 2QFY20 YoY (%) 1QFY21 QoQ (%) Net realization 5,688 4,820 18.0 5,370 5.9 RM Cost 731 733 (0.3) 972 (24.8) Employee Expenses 498 362 37.6 502 (0.8) Power, Oil & Fuel 824 996 (17.2) 779 5.9 Freight and Handling Outward 978 990 (1.2) 1,040 (5.9) Other Expenses 656 668 (1.9) 737 (11.0) Total Expenses 3,688 3,750 (1.7) 4,030 (8.5) EBITDA 2,000 1,070 86.9 1,340 49.2 Cement EBITDA (ex windmills) 1,895 977 93.9 1,283 47.7 Source: MOFSL, Company Valuation and view Volume growth to remain ahead of industry: TRCL sells ~75% of its volumes in South India, where volumes declined in FY20 and are declining in FY21.
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