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Ramco Cements (RAMCEM) Ramco Cements (RAMCEM) CMP: | 1040 Target: | 1,200 (15%) Target Period: 12 months BUY July 28, 2021 Volumes disappoint; margins stay firm… About the stock: Ramco Cements is the dominant player in South India with cement capacity of 19.7 MT spread across Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. In terms of sales, south contributes ~71% of sales while east contributes 24%, which is served via grinding units in WB (2 MT) and AP (2 MT). The company also has a windmill capacity of 125.95 MW, captive thermal power Particulars plants of 175 MW and 18 MW of WHRS Particulars Amount (| crore) Result Update Result Self-reliance on power, split grinding units near markets and focus on green Market Capitalisation 24760.0 power has helped the company to remain a cost efficient player in South India Total Debt (FY21) 3102.0 Cash (FY21) 170.0 EV 27692.0 Q1FY22 Results: The company reported a sharp drop in sales volumes due to 52 week H/L (|) 884/456 stringent restrictions in the south. However, strong realisations kept margins firm. Equity Capital 23.6 Clocked revenue of | 1,229 crore, down 24.6% QoQ, led by sales volumes Face Value (|) 1.0 de-growth of 33.3% to 2.14 MT. On a YoY basis, revenues were up 17.3% Shareholding pattern EBITDA/t was up 21.5% QoQ to | 1700/t (vs. last quarter EBITDA/t of (in %) Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 | 1,399/t). EBITDA margin was at 29.6%, up 209 bps QoQ, 453 bps YoY Promoter 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6 FII 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.6 PAT at | 169 crore, up 52.3% YoY, -21.2% QoQ vs. our estimate: | 152 crore) DII 27.0 26.6 26.6 25.7 Others 22.8 22.8 22.5 23.1 What should investors do? Long operational history, brand equity and cost Price Chart efficiency has helped the company to raise debt at competitive rates. 1500 20000 Post completion of major capex, debt levels would peak out with growth 15000 accelerating at revenue CAGR of 20%. Hence, we maintain BUY rating 1000 Target Price and Valuation: We value Ramco at | 1,200 i.e.15x FY23E EV/EBITDA 10000 500 5000 Key triggers for future price performance: 0 0 Incremental volumes from new units (1 MT Odisha GU, 1.5 MT & 2.25 MT Retail Equity Research Equity Retail Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jan-20 Jan-21 clinker unit in Jayanthipuram & Kurnool) would help grow the business from Jan-19 – H2FY22 onwards Ramco Cement (LHS) NIFTY (RHS) Expect sales volume CAGR of 18.5% during FY21-23E Key risks Key Financial & Valuation Summary Debt levels are expected to peak out in FY22E; the company aims to Any delay in commissioning of become debt free in three years thereafter Securities new capacities Alternate Stock Idea: Besides Ramco, in our cement coverage we also like ACC. Volatility in prices of key inputs ICICI It has a strong balance sheet with debt frees status. The company is focusing like coal/petcoke on cost reduction and also adding new capacities via internal accruals BUY with a target price of | 2,800/share Research Analyst Key Financial & Valuation Summary Rashes Shah Key Financial Summary [email protected] 3 Year CAGR 2 Year CAGR Key Financials FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E (%) (%) Net Sales 4406 5146 5389 5268 6.1 6267 7586 20.0 EBITDA 1099 1055 1147 1548 12.1 1732 2114 16.9 EBITDA (%) 25.0 20.5 21.3 29.4 27.6 27.9 PAT 556 523 601 761 11.1 837 1072 18.7 EPS (|) 23 22 26 32 35 45 EV/EBITDA 23.4 24.9 24.2 17.9 16.2 13.0 EV/Tonne ($) 237 242 213 201 204 190 RoNW 13.7 11.7 12.2 13.5 12.9 14.2 RoCE 10.3 8.2 7.5 8.6 8.8 10.1 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | The Ramco Cements ICICI Direct Research Key performance highlights Domestic sales volumes were at 2.14 MT (down 33.3% QoQ, highest de- growth reported so far by cement companies) while blended realisations were up 13% QoQ to | 5,739/tonne, up 6.1% YoY Clinker utilisation was at 71% vs. 92% in Q4FY21 vs. 53% last year. In terms of regions, the south region was impacted severely due to stringent lockdowns, especially in Tamil Nadu and Kerala vs. other regions Cost of production was up 9.7% QoQ to | 4039/t, led by a sharp rise in diesel, petcoke, coal prices (up 6%, 12%, 19%, QoQ, respectively) However, EBITDA/t improved sequentially by 21.5% to | 1700/t (vs. I-direct estimate: | 1,469/t) on the back of higher realisations Key conference call highlights Demand: Current clinker utilisations are at ~80% (excluding Jayanthipuram new capacity). Expect strong recovery post the monsoon as the south region is currently seeing heavy rains. Expect total volume growth of 19- 20% for FY22E. Expect cement prices to also remain firm due to high costs Cost of production: Petcoke & coal prices are expected to continue to keep costs at higher levels. However, focus on green power and alternative fuels (undisclosed) would help stabilise power costs, going forward. The share of green power is at 14% (vs. 5% last year), which will further increase to 20% by increasing WHRS capacity from18 MW to 39 MW in FY23E Capex: FY22E capex is likely to be at | 800 crore including capex of | 160 crore for dry mortar (incurred | 397 crore in Q1FY22). The company is expected to spend | 476 crore further on modernisation of RR Nagar plant, which is likely to be incurred in FY23E. With this upgradation, the management expects annual cost savings of | 50 crore Debt: Higher working capital requirement led to | 400 crore increase in debt levels, which is currently at | 3700 crore. However, borrowing cost has declined 200 bps. Debt reduction of | 1200 crore is possible over the next two years Others: Trade mix is 75% for the quarter. Blended cement is at 77% and 23% is OPC. Road mix is at 88% ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | The Ramco Cements ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Particulars Q1FY22 Q1FY22E Q1FY21 YoY (%) Q4FY21 QoQ (%) Comments Stringent restrictions in Tamil Nadu and Kerala led to a sharp fall in Net Sales 1,229 1,215 1,048 17.3 1,631 -24.6 sales volumes during Q1FY22 Total cost of production 864.7 884.3 784.6 10.2 1,181.6 -26.8 EBITDA 364.0 330.5 262.9 38.5 449.0 -18.9 EBITDA Margin (%) 29.6 27.2 25.1 453 bps 27.5 209 bps Reported PAT 169.0 152.0 110.9 52.3 214.4 -21.2 Key Metrics Volume (MT) 2.14 2.25 1.94 10.5 3.21 -33.3 Realisation (|) 5,739 5,399 5,408 6.1 5,080 13.0 EBITDA per Tonne (|) 1,700 1,469 1,357 25.3 1,399 21.5 Per tonne Analysis Q1FY22 Q1FY22E Q1FY21 YoY (%) Q4FY21 QoQ (%) Net Sales 5,739 5,399 5,408 6.1 5,080 13.0 Raw Material Expenses 552 740 826 -33.2 728 -24.2 Employee Expenses 490 410 520 -5.7 295 66.2 Sharp spike of over 50% YoY in the prices of international Power and fuel 1,031 820 780 32.1 771 33.6 coal/petcoke led to such increase Freight 1,217 1,330 1,189 2.4 1,282 -5.0 Others 748 630 736 1.8 605 23.8 Production costs 4,039 3,930 4,051 -0.3 3,681 9.7 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY22E FY23E Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 6,267.3 6,267.3 0.0 7,585.8 7,585.8 NA EBITDA 1,732.3 1,732.3 0.0 2,114.1 2,114.1 NA EBITDA Margin (%) 27.6 27.6 0 bps 27.9 27.9 NA Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Result Update | The Ramco Cements ICICI Direct Research Key triggers for future price performance New capacities to bring efficiency, spur growth from H2FY22E onwards: Incremental volumes from new units (2 MT already commissioned and 1 MT Odisha GU commissioned in September 2020) would help to grow faster during FY22E. The company has commissioned the clinkering unit of 1.5 MT in Jayanthipuram. Further, 9 MW WHRS and 2.25 MT clinker unit in Kurnool is likely by Q2FY22E. Factoring this, we model 20% revenue CAGR in FY21-23E. While newly commissioned units would lead to a reduction in transit distance for target markets in East India, commissioning of total 39 MW WHRS (18 MW in FY21, 9 MW in FY22E and 12 MW in FY23E) would bring further efficiencies, going forward (likely cost savings of | 130 crore/annum). Debt levels to peak out in FY22E; aims to become debt free in three years thereafter: Ramco spent | 1,920 crore towards capex in FY20. During FY21, the company incurred | 1,766 crore. The balance capex to be incurred is | 800 crore to fund the ongoing capex (TPP 18 MW WHRS 21 MW, Kurnool expansion & dry mortar). While debt levels are expected to rise, debt/EBITDA is expected to improve from 2.0x in FY21 to 1.4x by FY23E.
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