Israeli-Jordanian Foreign Relations: an Intricate Association in a Volatile Neighbourhood

FACULTY OF SOCIAL STUDIES Israeli-Jordanian Foreign Relations: An Intricate Association in a Volatile Neighbourhood Bachelor's Thesis VIKTÓRIA VARGOVÁ Supervisor: Aaron Walter, MBA, Ph.D. Department of International Relations and European Studies International Relations Brno 2019 2 Bibliographic Record Author: Viktória Vargová Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University Department of International Relations and European Studies University Number: 450754 Title of Thesis: Israeli-Jordanian Foreign Relations: An Intricate Association in a Volatile Neighbourhood Degree Programme: International Relations Supervisor: Aaron Walter, MBA, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2019 Year of Enrolment: 2015 Number of Pages: 63 Keywords: Israel, The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, The Wadi Araba Treaty, Israeli-Jordanian relations, Constructivism, Security Cooperation, the Palestinian question, Palestine, The Red Sea-Dead Sea Water Conveyance Project, The Arab Spring, ISIS, Water management, the Middle East 3 Abstract In this thesis, I will focus on the relationship between the two neighbours, Israel and Jordan. In the first part, I am going to assess their relations before the Wadi Araba Treaty otherwise known as the peace treaty between the State of Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan signed in 1994. The second part will be dealing with their post-1994 relationship and how such a document changed and shaped their relations and how it has evolved since then. In the analytical part, I will explore possible situations for future or potential future relations, taking into account external variables like ISIS and the Palestinian question which hinder the improvement of their current relationship. Through the prism of constructivism, I will assess their situation to explain the hostility and disputes dealt with through time between these two nations. Based on all information researched, I will try to find out whether their treaty is in jeopardy or whether it will continue providing a safe ground for their enhanced cooperation in the future, despite the problematic areas they have to bear with. Anotácia V tejto bakalárskej práci sa budem sústrediť na vzťah medzi dvoma susednými štátmi, Izraelom a Jordánskom. V prvej časti budem posudzovať ich vzťahy pred podpísaním Wadi Araba zmluvy, inak známej aj ako mierová zmluva medzi štátom Izrael a Jordánskym kráľovstvom podpísanej v roku 1994. Ďalšia časť sa bude zaoberať ich vzťahom po roku 1994 a ako tento dokument zmenil a sformoval ich vzájomný vzťah, ktorý sa vyvíja až dodnes. V analytickej časti sa budem snažiť nájsť možné situácie pre ich budúce vzťahy, berúc do úvahy externé premenné ako ISIS alebo palestínsku otázku, ktorá veľmi intenzívne zabraňuje akémukoľvek zlepšovaniu ich vzájomných vzťahov. Pomocou prizmy sociálneho konštruktivizmu sa budem snažiť posúdiť ich situáciu a vďaka tomuto teoretickému rámcu zhodnotiť, ako možno vysvetliť ich nevraživosť a spory, s ktorými sa museli vysporiadať. Na základe informácií získaných štúdiom tejto problematiky sa budem snažiť zistiť, či je ich zmluva v ohrození, alebo aj napriek všetkým problematickým oblastiam, ktorým čelia, bude aj naďalej predstavovať bezpečný základ pre ich posilnenú spoluprácu. 4 5 Statutory Declaration I hereby declare that I have written the submitted Bachelor's Thesis concerning the topic of Israeli-Jordanian Foreign Relations: An Intricate Association in a Volatile Neighbourhood independently. All the sources used for the purpose of finishing this thesis have been adequately referenced and are listed in the Bibliography. In Brno on May 06, 2019 …….............................. Viktória Vargová 6 7 Acknowledgements I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Dr. Aaron T. Walter for his valuable and useful suggestions during the planning and writing of this thesis. His patient and precise guidance, encouragement and constructive critiques have been greatly appreciated. I would also like to thank my friends for their willingness to discuss the topic of this thesis and therefore provide intriguing points of view and constructive feedback. Finally, I would like to thank my family for their endless support throughout my whole study. 8 Table of Contents Introduction .............................................................................................. 11 1 The overview of Israeli-Jordanian Relations .................................... 13 1.1 Israeli-Jordanian Relations prior to 1994 ............................................................. 13 1.2 Israeli-Jordanian Relations after 1994 .................................................................. 18 1.3 Social constructivism as the main theoretical framework .................................... 22 2 The Palestinian question and security cooperation ...................... 25 2.1 Palestine: A thorn in Israeli-Jordanian relations .................................................. 25 2.2 Arab Spring and the Islamic State: a changed narrative for Israel and Jordan .... 32 2.3 Security cooperation between the two neighbours ............................................... 36 3 Future cooperation: asset or liability? ............................................. 41 3.1 Sectors of collaboration & water management .................................................... 41 3.2 The Red Sea-Dead Sea Water Conveyance Project ............................................. 45 3.3 Possible shortcomings of the Red-Dead Project .................................................. 48 Conclusion................................................................................................ 53 Bibliography ............................................................................................. 58 9 10 Introduction The main objective of this thesis is to assess the relations between the two neighbouring countries, Israel and Jordan. According to their joint decision to sign the so- called Wadi Araba Treaty, officially they should be enjoying peaceful cohabitation without any further problems. Nevertheless, even with the treaty signed, they could not get rid of certain obstacles affecting their relationship. The Palestinian question, post Arab Spring tendencies related to terrorism and security cooperation are the main issues this thesis aims to focus on in order to assess the development of their relationship, both prior to 1994 and after signing the treaty. Within this context there is the main question; is the Wadi Araba Treaty in jeopardy? Considering this possible hypothesis, there are two follow up questions this thesis aims to tackle: Are the current and formerly older disputes going to change the perception of the treaty? Or is it still going to keep its importance, positively shaping the relationship Israel and Jordan have towards each other? In order to either affirm or rule out the hypothesis, and to address this issue properly, the main methodological framework for this thesis is qualitative research. For this type of research, the focus is to understand, explore, explain, discover or clarify situations, perceptions, values, beliefs and experiences of a group of people. The flexibility of this approach is often based on deductive rather than inductive logic and thus many times is non-sequential in its operationalism. But because of the mentioned flexibility, it is more difficult to check for researcher bias, which to some extent can be perceived as a limitation.1 Within this qualitative approach, the method chosen for this research is going to be document analysis, as this thesis aims to analyse mainly secondary sources like articles, books, policy papers and academic works. The primary source that is to be analysed is the treaty itself, as it provides the best comprehension of the intended shift in their relationship and areas they claimed to resolve and cooperate at. This work also seeks to understand the complexity of their relationship through the prism of social constructivism, which has been chosen as the theoretical background 1 Kumar, R. 2014. Research Methodology. A Step by step guide for beginners, 131-132. 11 underpinning the main hypothesis, which claims the treaty might be jeopardized. The implementation and appropriateness of this theory would be further explained in Chapter 1. Just to present an outline, this theory presumes that reality is rather constituted than merely described as actors talk it, write it and argue it.2 Thereby it creates new possibilities for understanding and evaluating the Israeli-Jordanian relationship, as it implies it has not been strictly given as a whole and just a simple consequence of the Arab relationship towards Israel, but more likely created through perceptions, values and beliefs of its actors, which are all variables that are about to be reviewed through qualitative research. As has already been discussed, in every research they are limitations that are going to influence the whole working process and the possible outcomes of it. Therefore, it is very important to be aware of such flaws, as their targeting could provide a better interpretation of the research finding. Looking at the limitations in broader terms of methodology, working mainly with secondary data could end up in a somehow constrained perspective, as there might be, even a slight but significant bias, disregard or exaggeration present. Such phenomena could influence the overall reading and comprehension of the analysed data; hence it is important to evaluate the sources within a rather holistic perspective. The other essential limitation that is going to be present

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