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North Atlantic Treaty Organization Update Paper

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North Atlantic Treaty Organization Update Paper North Atlantic Treaty Organization Update Paper Topic A: The Use of Social Media in Counterterrorism Social Media and the Internet has been increasingly used as a recruiting, communication, and propaganda tool for terrorist groups around the world. The following update paper will present an overview of terrorist organizations use of social media to further their goals. Beginnings of Major Terrorist Activities on Social Media In the mid-2000s, Al-Qaeda was a pioneer in using the internet and social media to promote its objectives. During the early era of terrorists activities on the internet, social media was still the dominant communication method. According to terrorism expert Evan Kohlmann in 2006, 90 percent of terrorist activity took place on social media tools including independent bulletin boards, Paltalk, and Yahoo! eGroups. The terrorist activities in 2006 on social media were mostly aimed at Middle Eastern countries and there was limited terrorist activities on Western-orientated sites such as Myspace.com. Later in the decade, Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups used Youtube, Facebook, and Twitter to serve their objectives. Social Media was used by terrorist groups to recruit new members, disseminate propaganda, coordinate activities and actions, and fundraise.1 While Al- Qaeda’s social media was somewhat effective on the Middle East, experts deemed Al-Qaeda’s online outreach as having a limited impact on Western counties with a few prominent exceptions.2 ISIS Terrorist Activities on Social Media In 2014, ISIS changed how terrorist organizations used social media by more effectively using global social media tools including YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, Tumblr, and internet memes to influence adversaries, supporters, and journalists.3 ISIS used a combination of official and 1 Jarret M. Brachman, “High-Tech Terror: Al-Qaeda's Use of New Technology,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, vol. 30, no. 2, 2006, pp. 149–164. 2Brian Michael Jenkins, “Is al Qaeda's Internet Strategy Working?” RAND Corporation, 6 Dec. 2011. 3 James P. Farwell, “The Media Strategy of ISIS,” Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, Feb. 2014, pp. 49–55. professional quality social media content in multiple languages and auteur content from fighters. The content including videos and images became globally disseminated by social media users and media organizations. The professional and fighter-focused content was a sharp contrast to the fuzzy camcorder videos of Osama Bin Laden, the former leader of Al-Qaeda, posted earlier that decade.4 A prominent example of ISIS’ social media include the beheadings of United States journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff by United Kingdom citizen Mohammed Emwazi who went by the pseudonym Jihadi John.5 The content has been a successful propaganda tool of ISIS by provoking the United States and its allies, and recruiting thousands of soldiers globally.6 ISIS through propaganda, violence, and other means has been able to recruit 30,000 foreign fighters including thousands from Western Europe and over a hundred from the United States. 78 After 2015, ISIS social media has been on the decline due to their decreasing power, the deaths of prominent members and members of their social media teams, and increasingly successful counter-terrorism efforts on social media. However, ISIS has continued to have a strong presence on social media and as a result of the counter-terrorism efforts on social media has been increasingly using encrypted applications for propaganda and communication purposes.910 Techniques Utilized by ISIS to Use Social Media to Propagate Their Ideology and Gain Followers Javier Lesaca, visiting scholar at George Washington University, found that 20% out of 1,300 ISIS propaganda videos showed images similar to those found in prominent items of Western culture and entertainment industry: videogames such as Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto and 4Koerner, Brendan I. “Why ISIS Is Winning the Social Media War.” Wired, 1 May 2017, www.wired.com/2016/03/isis- winning-social-media-war-heres-beat/. 5 https://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/middleeast/jihadi-john-dead/index.html 6 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/07/isis-media-machine-propaganda-war 7 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/26/isis-exodus-foreign-fighters-caliphate-crumbles 8 http://thesoufancenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Beyond-the-Caliphate-Foreign-Fighters-and-the-Threat-of- Returnees-TSC-Report-October-2017.pdf 9 http://www.newsweek.com/isis-posting-more-videos-its-virtual-caliphate-after-losses-iraq-syria-664665 10 http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/03/jihadi-cool-how-isis-switched-its-recruitment-and-social-media- master-plan.html movies like American Sniper.11 With this type of shots, terrorists are able to appeal to a Westernized public, showing them something they are familiar with and that they find entertaining. ISIS have also used other tactics in social media to attract followers. As Emerson T. Brooking, writer and member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and P.W. Singer, specialist in 21st century warfare, wrote in a 2016 article for The Atlantic, terrorists “intermix promotion with mundane, real-life moments” in social media, to try to provide a sense of authenticity to their lives, something prospect followers of their ideologies can identify with. This follows the same techniques used by Western celebrities to gain followers on Twitter. As the above-mentioned writers pointed out, thanks to this intermixing of agendas and mundane looking tweets, celebrities like Katy Perry have more followers than any government agency. A third technique used by ISIS regarding promotion of their ideology through social media can be described as the “bombardment of propaganda.” In a study dating to October 2015, terrorist analyst Charlies Winter found that ISIS released around 1,500 propaganda events (photos, videos, articles, etc.) over the span of one month. Most of these events propagated through social media never go viral. Brooking and Singer point out this phenomenon is analogous to that which exists in most media firms, such as BuzzFeed or other media outlets, where hundreds of articles are published on a daily basis but only a few ever go viral. So, acknowledging this phenomenon, ISIS’ technique is “keep its content fresh and in front of viewers by making many small bets, knowing some of them will pay off big.” 11 Brooking, Emerson T, and P. W. Singer. “War Goes Viral.” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 11 Oct. 2016, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/11/war-goes-viral/501125/. Topic B: Expansion of NATO Member States Since the 20th century, NATO has expanded to incorporate more nations and maintain world peace. However, NATO’s expansions place pressure on Central and Eastern European countries that were communist influences during the Cold War period. The Membership Action Plan (MAP) is essentially a trial period for nations interested in joining the NATO alliance12. MAP is a practical plan for NATO to expand and incorporate more nations. This program began in April 1999 and current members in MAP are Bosnia and Herzegovina and Yugoslavia.13 This program offers assistance and support tailored to each nation’s needs for nations that express an interest in possible membership of NATO. This program offers annual meetings for nations to discuss issues regarding civilians and military. Montenegro has been a participant of MAP since December 2009. This year, the coastal nation Montenegro has undergone ardent debate on whether or not to join NATO. The benefit for NATO to expand and incorporate Montenegro is that its location would provide NATO aid in international trade and security between European nations14. With Montenegro as the last country along the Mediterranean coast to join, NATO would have control of the entire coast that stretches from Portugal to Turkey. Although NATO’s benefits are clear, Montenegro is not convinced that its membership will be profitable. There is a 50-50 split in the country as some citizens of Montenegro remain unsupportive because of ancestral ties to the NATO bombing of Serbia in 1999. Since Montenegro is divided, the expansion of NATO and possibility to settle relations with Russia is halted. Montenegro’s dispute over NATO is to the benefit of Russia. Russia does not favor NATO and its expansion to Eastern Europe as NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe poses a threat to Russia’s military and nation. This introduces dispute on whether or not NATO ever promised to enlarge in Europe. Russia claims 12 Nato. “Membership Action Plan (MAP).” NATO, www.nato.int/cps/ua/natohq/topics_37356.htm. 13 Ibid. 14 Johnson, Glen. “Tiny Montenegro is about to become part of NATO. Here's what you need to know – LA Times.” Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Times, 5 June 2017, www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-montenegro-nato- 20170605-story.html. that NATO’s expansion is a violation to a promise NATO made to Moscow in 1990 where NATO had promised not to place any combat forces in the region, however, recently there was an increase in combat forces in Central Europe15. In 1997, NATO and Russia created a Permanent Joint Council to plan cooperation and consultation. This aided in helping Russia join the International Monetary Fund, The World Bank, the G7 and the World Trade Organization16. Although NATO tried to facilitate relations with Russia, Russia is currently not on good terms with NATO. Russia claims that NATO has cheated their promises. In the end, Montenegro became a member of the Alliance in June 2017. NATO’s expanding alliances for nations is symbolic for its strength and goals to maintain world peace. While NATO’s expansion is a conundrum for Russia, there still remains a possibility for Russia to benefit from this international alliance. NATO’s focus is to facilitate relationships between nations and there are economic profits that come along with that.
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