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Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report

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Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report Shanxi Inclusive Agricultural Value Chain Development Project (RRP PRC 48358) Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report Project number: 48358-001 August 2017 People’s Republic of China: Shanxi Inclusive Agricultural Value Chain Development Project Table of Contents Table of Contents ................................................................................................................... 2 List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... 3 List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... 4 Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. 5 A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... 1 B. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 4 1. Project Background ......................................................................................................... 4 2. Current Climate of Shanxi Province ................................................................................. 5 3. Report Objectives and Scope .......................................................................................... 7 1. Climate Scenarios and Assumptions ............................................................................... 8 2. CMIP5 Climate Projection Data ....................................................................................... 9 3. Projected Changes for Temperature and Precipitation in 2050 ........................................ 9 4. Extreme Climate Events .................................................................................................14 D. CLIMATE RISKS ASSESSMENT ...................................................................................16 1. Climate Change Impact on Agriculture of Shanxi Province .............................................16 2. Climate Change Impact on Provincial and Regional Water Resources ...........................17 3. Climate Risks to Proposed Subprojects ..........................................................................19 3.1 Climate Risks to Livestock and Poultry Subprojects ....................................................19 3.2 Climate Risks to Orchard Subprojects.........................................................................20 3.3 Climate Risks to Mushroom and Vegetable Production Subprojects ...........................21 3.4 Climate Risks to Food Processing Subprojects ...........................................................21 3.5 Climate Risks to Cold Storages ...................................................................................22 3.6 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Summary ....................................................................22 E. RECOMMENDED ADAPTATION MITIGATION PRACTICES UNDER THE PROJECT .....23 F. GHG EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR ALL SUBPROJECTS ................................................25 G. ACCOUNTING CLIMATE FINANCE ..............................................................................27 H. REFERENCES ...............................................................................................................29 List of Figures Figure 1 Annual mean temperature and precipitation of Shanxi Province ........................... 5 Figure 2 Monthly mean precipitation in Datong, Jiexiu, and Yuncheng ............................... 6 Figure 3 Annual mean temperature from 1955 to 2010 in Datong, Jiexiu, and Taiyuan....... 6 Figure 4 Annual precipitation from 1955 to 2010 in Datong, Jiexiu, and Yuncheng ............. 7 Figure 5 All forcing agents' atmospheric CO2-equivalent concentrations ............................. 8 Figure 6 Projected annual mean temperature for Shanxi Province in 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios ............................................................... 11 Figure 7 Projected annual precipitation for Shanxi Province in 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ............................................................................................................... 12 Figure 8 Projected changes for annual mean temperature and precipitation under RCP4.5 climate change scenario in 2050 for cities of Shanxi Province ............................ 13 Figure 9 Projected changes for annual mean temperature and precipitation under RCP8.5 climate change scenario in 2050 for cities of Shanxi Province ............................ 13 Figure 10 Current and future (20,500 monthly average precipitation simulated under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for Datong, Linfen, Yuncheng, and Jincheng in Shanxi Province) ............................................................................. 14 Figure 11 Possible connections between climate change and heatwaves (adopted from United State Environmental Protection Agency) .................................................. 15 Figure 12 GEV distribution of the annual maximum daily precipitation of Xining:.. .............. 15 Figure 13 Water consumptions by different sectors of Shanxi Province in 2014 ................. 18 List of Tables Table 1 CMIP5 global climate models used for analysing future climate change in this study ..................................................................................................................... 9 Table 2 Projected changes in annual mean temperature and precipitation by different GCMs in 2050 for Shanxi Province ..................................................................... 10 Table 3 The optima, lower and upper temperature threshold of for different types of crop and/or plants ....................................................................................................... 17 Table 4 Livestock and poultry production subprojects ...................................................... 19 Table 5 Orchard subprojects proposed in this project ...................................................... 20 Table 6 Mushroom and vegetable subprojects proposed in this project ........................... 21 Table 7 Food processing subprojects proposed in this project ......................................... 21 Table 8 Summary of structural and non-structural adaptation measures, and project mitigation practices. ............................................................................................ 25 Table 9 Estimates of GHG Emission by the livestock subprojects ................................... 26 Table 10 Estimates of GHG Emission by the trees and plants subprojects ........................ 27 Table 11 Estimates of GHG Emission and Carbon Sequestration by the Project. .............. 27 Table 12 Climate finance accounting for all subprojects .................................................... 27 Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank CVAMR climate vulnerability assessment and management report GCM general circulation model GEV general extreme value function GHG greenhouse gas IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change PAC project agribusiness company and cooperative PRC People’s Republic of China RCP Representative Concentration Pathways (of future GHG) SPADO Shanxi Poverty Alleviation and Development Office SPG Shanxi Provincial Government A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Climate change is posing series of challenges to agricultural industries with projected higher temperature and changed precipitation regimes. The agriculture of Shanxi Province is more vulnerable to climate change because of the harsh environment and poverty in many rural areas of the province. 2. The climate of Shanxi Province is characterised as arid continental monsoon climate. The annual mean temperature is ranging from 4.2°C to 14.2°C, increasing from north to south and decreasing from valleys to high mountains. Winters are long, dry, and cold, while summer is warm and humid. Over 60% of precipitation is falling from July to September. Spring is extremely dry and prone to dust storms. Shanxi is one of the sunniest parts of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Early summer heat waves are common. Double crops are growing in valleys and basins of middle and south of the province whilst only one crop grows in the northern Shanxi Province. In other words, double crops are only growing where is suitable for winter wheat. There are also various fruits growing in various parts of the province such as dates, apple, pear, and so on. 3. This project aims to help Shanxi Province to eradicate extreme poverty and improve livelihood in the poverty-stricken areas of the province. With request from the Shanxi Provincial Government (SPG), this project will promote agriculture-based industry for local specialty agricultural products, as part of its poverty alleviation and rural development program. 4. The project will have two outputs: (i) agricultural value chains strengthened; and (ii) inclusive business mechanism piloted. In summary, the project will support 19 selected subprojects that include livestock and poultry production, orchard and fruit production, mushroom and vegetable production, food processing, and agricultural product markets, together with capacity building for the government in developing agricultural value chains and project management. 5. Climate change risks are assessed for all subprojects based on CMIP5 climate modelling outcomes for 2050
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