DOI: 10.21276/sjhss.2017.2.1.10

Saudi Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences ISSN 2415-6256 (Print) Scholars Middle East Publishers ISSN 2415-6248 (Online) Dubai, United Arab Emirates Website: http://scholarsmepub.com/

The 2015 Presidential Election and the Concession of Defeat by : A Recipe for the Consolidation of Democracy in Dr. Akaayar Felix Ahokegh1 1Department of History & International studies, Kogi State University, Anyigba.

*Corresponding Author: Dr. Akaayar Felix Ahokegh Email: [email protected]

Abstract: Nigeria’s federal system concentrates enormous political and economic powers in the centre. Thus, politics for the control of this very powerful centre have always been tense and often result to crises. This paper examines the political variables that accounted for power-shift, from the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples’ Democratic Party to Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress. The paper holds that Jonathan’s acceptance of defeat opens a new chapter in the political history of Nigeria, which invariably would translate to the consolidation of democracy in the country. As a mark of conclusion, the paper suggests the following palliatives: politicians should sustain the Goodluck Jonathan spirit of sportsmanship, demonetization of the polity and a redefinition of the nation’s federal system, to devolve more powers to the component parts. Keywords: Nigeria, federal system, economic powers

INTRODUCTION fortunes and between the Niger Delta communities and Democratic governance is about election [1], successive governments for compensation due to the which everywhere in the world produces competition degradation of their environment caused by oil spillage for political offices. In most places, precisely in , [3]. The worst form of the evils of the oil regime is the the tone of rivalry amongst competitors sometimes abatement of ethnic antagonism; in form of allegations makes one to wonder if the aim of the competition is of marginalization. Very often, this cry points at the not of self-serving interest. Since independence of ethnic group whose person is the president of the Nigeria in 1960 and most profoundly after the discovery country. The fact that the man who becomes president of oil, the desire to control the centre, which obviously of Nigeria has all the powers that can hardly be leads to the control the nation’s resources, has been a imagined, the battle for the position has been a fierce thorny issue. one, involving the application of the worst instruments of campaign, as witnessed in the history of election in It was this very craze to sit on the oil wealth of the country. the nation that made the military to abandon their professional responsibility of protecting the territorial Of course, there has never been any time in the integrity of Nigeria for governance. To control the oil history of Nigeria’s election that the actors forgot the wealth, in 1972 Gen. Yakubu Gowon entrusted the enormous powers in the centre, as vested in the management of the nation’s oil resources to the Nigeria president. In the 1979 presidential election for example, National Oil Corporation (NNOC) and declared that all the political parties were ethnic-based. The three oil properties not already owned at the time, by foreign leading political parties were the northern-based entities, legally and automatically became the properties National Party of Nigeria (NPC), with Alhaji Shehu of the government. To further ensure the absolute Shagari as its presidential candidate; the eastern-based control of the oil resource by the federal government, Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) fronted Dr. Nnamdi the Nigerian constitution provides that all minerals, oil Azikiwe as its presidential candidate and the western- and gas, regardless of their area of location, are the based Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), which presented exclusive properties of the federal government, who Chief Obafemi Awolowo as its presidential candidate. reserves the right to negotiate the terms of oil Though, the political parties represented the three major production with the private firms[2]. ethnic groups of Hausa-Fulani, Igbo and Yoruba respectively, their membership cut across the entire So, oil wealth has become an albatross that country and candidates traversed the country, somehow literally strangles the nation. It has been a potential freely. Though, campaigns for the 1979 presidential source of conflict between the Niger Delta communities election portrayed clearly the divisions in the society, in attempt to outplay one another for control of the oil yet they were not as horrific as witnessed in the 2015 58

Akaayar Felix Ahokegh.; Saudi J. Humanities Soc. Sci.; Vol-2, Iss-1(Jan, 2017):58-65 presidential election, which hinged heavily on hate, of political power and forgoing the control of the slander, bigotry and intimidation. It is still memorable nation’s oil wealth, which the constitution heaped in the that Chief Awolowo during one of his presidential centre. Yet, the constitution of Nigeria does not permit campaigns tours of the country literally begged the a third term. Visibly disturbed, and as a show of crowed to give him the opportunity to rule Nigeria, helplessness and bitterness, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo even if for a day. There is no doubt that he obviously attempted to tinker with the constitution; to amend the eyed the nation’s wealth and power, which the centre relevant provision for a third term ticket. Though, his holds. However, arising from the policy of his 1960 effort ended in futility, it never presented a picture of political party, the Action Group (AG) in the western the total rejection of his idea. While the generality of region; free education, one inclines to believe he had the Nigerian electorate rejected the idea, his cohorts and hoped to stay loner as Nigeria’s president; more than cronies supported it. The attempt at tempering with the just one day, to extend his free education policy constitution to secure a third term bait by Chief throughout the country. Obasanjo is understood against the backdrop of the crisis of leadership in Africa, as a whole and Nigeria, in Good as his intention appeared to be, the 1979 particular. presidential results, which showed that Chief Awolowo lost became a matter of controversy. According to him, It is pertinent to note that the nation’s electoral the election did not produce an outright winner at the umpire has always functioned as appendage to the first count. This was because Alhaji Shehu Shagari did government in power. It has always shown great not satisfy the two conditions stipulated by the electoral incapacity to act independently, maybe because the law simultaneously. This was that though, he scored the government appoints its members and provides it with highest total votes but did not secure the required one- the finances to carry out logistics required for election. third (25%) of the total votes cast in two-thirds (13 Frankly and courageously, President Umaru Musa Yar States) of the 19 States of the federation. He Adua admitted that the 2007 presidential election that consequently sought interpretation of some issues in produced him had short-comings. It is felt that the term court. However, on 26th September, 1979 the Supreme short-coming was a mild way of expressing the court presided by Justice Fatai Williams decided in situation. Indeed, what Nigerians saw during the 2007 favour of Alhaji Shehu Shagari, thereby reaffirming the presidential election were rigging, destruction of declaration of Federal electoral Commission property, killing of human beings, etc. President Yar (FEDECO) [4]. Adua admonished politicians as he further reiterated that: Table-1: Result of the 1979 Presidential Election The history of election in Nigeria had been that PARTY VOTES SCORED % SCORED of controversies…the responsibilities for all NPN 5668857 33.77 the failures lay mostly with the political actors. UPN 4916651 29.18 No matter the legislations, no matter the efforts NPP 2822523 16.75 we put at electoral reforms, unless we the PRP 1732113 10.28 political leaders change our attitude towards GNPP 1686489 10.02 election, we will continue to have problems Source: Federal Electoral Commission, 1979 [5].

Alhaji Shagari’s NPN formed a coalition The 2015 Presidential Election: Campaigns, Voting government with Azikiwe’s NPP, thus isolating Chief and Collation of Results Awolowo’s UPN, the same manner that his Action The Independent National Electoral Commission Group was isolated in the 1960s. (INEC) had sets clearly the contour of the 2015 general elections, including the conduct of campaigns and The 1999 and 2004 presidential elections, voting. In the way that past elections in Nigeria have which saw Chief Olusegun Obasanjo ruling the country been a matter of do or die, the manner in which the for eight years were equally fierce. Just out of prison, 2015 elections, especially the presidential election was many Nigerians did not see him as a suitable conducted, appeared to be war. Supporters of the presidential candidate, having not freed himself from Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and the trauma of his incarceration. However, for reasons incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan helplessly quite unknown to many Nigerians, ex-military officers prayed for the death of Muhammadu Buhari, the All and top politicians from northern Nigeria preferred him. Progressive Congress (APC) presidential flag-bearer This explains the allegation that northern ex-military and leading challenger to Goodluck Jonathan. This officers aided in manipulating the election for someone mind-set generated hate campaigns against Buhari as in that they trusted; a former compatriot in the military, the preceding information: who could cover up their administrative mistakes and  The Ekiti State governor, Peter Ayodele crimes. At the expiry of his second term, President Fayose warned that Nigerians should not vote Obasanjo began to feel the pains of exiting the corridors Buhari because he was too old and sick. He

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Akaayar Felix Ahokegh.; Saudi J. Humanities Soc. Sci.; Vol-2, Iss-1(Jan, 2017):58-65 insinuated that if elected, Buhari would likely implying that Buhari who was older that him die in office like the late Yar Adua. was not to be president  The wife of the incumbent president and  Doyin Okupe, one of President Jonathan’ s presidential candidate, Mrs. Dame Patience spokesmen publicly announced that Nigerian Jonathan, in a women rally in Kogi State told should begin to call him a bastard if Buhari women not to vote Buhari because he was wins the Presidential election [6]. unfit to rule the country. She described Buhari as too old and brain dead. Also in Calabar, the It is no news that hate campaign has been the Cross River State capital, Mrs. Dame Patience culture of politics in Nigeria since independence. Jonathan urged the people to stone anyone However, the extent that it was utilized in the 2015 who comes to promise them change; the presidential election surpasses every other time. The slogan of the APC. pathetic situation is that which the media was seen in  A popular Niger delta militant leader, partnership with the ruling party, to broadcast hate nicknamed as Tompolo declared that he would messages. Perhaps, it is in light of the foregoing that put Nigeria on fire if Buhari wins the Akpo Ejere expressing worry opined that, never in the Presidential election history of electioneering in Nigeria have campaigns  President Goodluck Jonathan himself declared been as vile as in the 2015 presidential election. He publicly in one of his campaigns that the points at the entry of the social media as marking a person he would ever hand-over to must be dangerous twist in the saga. someone who is younger than himself,

MAP-1: Prevalence of Hate Speeches in Nigeria

Legend States recording low incidence of politically motivated hate speech States recording significant levels of politically motivated hate speech States recording high levels of politically motivated hate speech Source: Nigeria Civil Society: Election Update, 2015

The outcome of the presidential election that the candidates identify their problems and how they saw Muhammadu Buhari emerging victorious explains intend to solve them, and not bigotry and insults. the extent that Nigerians have become politically enlightened; having grown above the age of blackmail Admitting that hate campaign was the main and triviality. Instead, what they want to hear from strategy of the PDP during the 2015 presidential aspirants is campaign based on issues, which in election, the party’s national secretary, Olisa Metuh developed countries like Britain, France and the United attributed the failure of incumbent President Goodluck States is the most civilized method of seeking votes Jonathan to hate campaigns against Mohammadu from the electorate. Issue-based campaign provides Buhari. According to him the hate messages denied the opportunity for the masses to know the extent to which electorate the opportunity to be abreast with the good

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Akaayar Felix Ahokegh.; Saudi J. Humanities Soc. Sci.; Vol-2, Iss-1(Jan, 2017):58-65 intentions of the PDP candidate, thereby making year rule of a northerner, Umaru Muas Yar Mohammadu Buhari popular. In his words: Adua, a very sick man, whose kith and kin The PDP campaign was characterized by hate considered an imposition by Chief Obasanjo, massages against Mohammadu Buhari with in a ploy to return power to the south. Indeed, little emphasis on the achievement of President by the death of Umaru Musa Yar Adua, Jonathan. Some of the most horrific attacks Jonathan, the vice-President, constitutionally against Mohammadu Buhari came from the took over as President of Nigeria. To insist on President’s wife, Dame Patience, the governor ruling longer than six years, Jonathan was of Ekiti State, Ayodele Fayose, and the simply reminding the north of the event spokesperson for President Jonathan’s culminating to Umaru Yar Adua’s presidency campaign team, Femi Fani Kayode [7]. and his death. But it was those who had lasting benefits in Jonathan’s government that Though, Olisa Metuh blames Jonathan’s defeat on strongly encouraged him to seek re-election in hate campaigns against Buhari, it is obvious that his 2015. Therefore, it required the utmost sense (Jonathan) failure was due to a plethora of factors. of Jonathan to realize that those pushing him Some factors revolve around President Goodluck behind constitute a minute portion of the entire Jonathan’s personal qualities, others are caused by the Nigerian electorate and do not mean well for attitude of his fellow party members, and yet some the country factors have been on ground even before Jonathan  Lack of internal democracy occasioned by the became President. These factors could be summed as: hijack of decision making, including party  President Jonathan suffered the clutch of self- primaries by the PDP State governors was guilt, which affected his boldness to go into another cause of Jonathan’s failure. the race in 2015. He had expressed satisfaction Everywhere in the country, the story remained to rule Nigeria for six years, out of sheer luck, the same for quite a long time; that the State occasioned by the death of his boss and governors simply appointed their friends as predecessor, Umaru Musa Yar Adua. Indeed, candidates for positions requiring internal the overwhelming support he enjoyed during party elections. In whatever form that the the PDP presidential primary, over Alhaji resistance from members took; whether a Atiku Abubakar, especially from northern resolve not to vote the governor’s candidate, delegates and his subsequent election in 2011 money and tugs were used to rig election, were based on the understanding that he would thereby making the resistance non-effective in give way after six years of governance. It was changing the situation. So, the disillusioned his change of heart that Chief Olusegun Nigerians only awaited the appropriate time to Obasanjo considered a deceit and reminded express their rejection of PDP. As PDP him of his promise: presidential candidate, Jonathan was seen as You (President Goodluck Jonathan) PDP personified. did not hesitate to confirm to me that  The problem of corruption had been on ground you are a strong believer in a one- in Nigeria for several decades, before the term of six years for the president and inception of the Goodluck Jonathan by the time you have used the presidency. However, it was this very problem unexpired time of your predecessor of corruption that caused his downfall. and the four years of your first term, Jonathan appeared to lack the political will to you would have used up to six years fight corruption and so; it became rampant and would not need any more term or during his time. He seemed content with the time…hence my inclusion of it in my paraphernalia and glamour associated with the address at the finale of your campaign office of the president, and never cared to in 2011 [9]. shoulder the responsibility of fighting  The nature of politics in Nigeria requires that corruption in Nigeria. Maybe, he was such a Jonathan should have some basic requisite simple and gentle man that many of his intelligence to solve some lingering political associates and appointees knew and took for equations concerning his presidential ambition granted. in 2015. These include, the one bordering on  Idiosyncrasy and leadership antecedents of the the fact that the south had just finished an APC presidential candidate, Mohammadu eight-year rule via Chief Obasanjo. Therefore, Buhari; as a frank Nigerian, a no nonsense being a southerner, his insistence on ruling for person and a corrupt free individual helped to more than six years would mean over- dismantle Jonathan. Thus, his campaign concentrating power in the south, in a stretch message to eradicate corruption in Nigeria of time, which could lead to crisis. Again, could not be regarded as mere lip service or Jonathan’s six-year rule was actually the eight- political propaganda. Of course, as a military

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Akaayar Felix Ahokegh.; Saudi J. Humanities Soc. Sci.; Vol-2, Iss-1(Jan, 2017):58-65 Head of state, he had started cleansing the have made the duo of Dame Patience and Goodluck society of evils, when Gen. Babangida, a direct Jonathan not to compromise any effort at securing opposite of his person toppled him, in a victory. Again, the manner in which the first lady military coup in 1984. unleashed hate speeches against Buhari coupled with Jonathan’s swear not to hand over power to anyone The 2015 presidential election marks the first time older than himself convinced people that the rumour in Nigeria’s political history that power shifts from the must have been indeed factual. To crown it all, the ruling PDP to the main opposition APC. However, failure of the returning officer, Professor political observers opine that the long leadership of the Ekpo, vice-chancellor of University of Calabar, to PDP was not due to the masses’ lack of political present the Rivers State presidential election results enlightenment; rather it was due to rigging and other before INEC at the International Conference Centre, forms of manipulations, which made the masses’ votes Abuja confirmed everything that happened in Rivers not to count. This problem was to a very large extent State. Professor Ekpo complained that he was unable to averted by the introduction of the Card Readers that sight the figures due to element of darkness in the hall. reduced immensely the possibilities of rigging. Yet, when light was drawn closer to him, he remained hysterical and unable to present the figures. This Voting for the 2015 presidential election situation made Professor Attahiru Jiga to question if he commenced on 28th March, 2015. While the general really was the person that collated and computed the feeling among Nigerians was that the Professor Attahiru results [10]. Jiga led INEC was poised to doing a good job, some sections of the Nigerian society, that is, the south-east More than Professor Ekpo’s inability to present the and south-south faulted Jiga’s work, as attempting to Rivers State presidential results was another episode at install a northerner as president. Of course, few cases the collation centre. It was the ‘war’ of Mr. Peter were reported that some Card Readers malfunctioned, Godsday Orubebe against INEC, intended to scuttle the but generally everything went unlike the usual tradition, process. To many Nigerians, Mr. Orubebe’s action which had been characteristic of snatching ballot boxes. unraveled and confirmed how dread the battle to control Though, the Card Reader formula saved a lot of the centre, in the name of politics could turn into. It is problems, it did not completely eradicate manipulations, necessary to point out here that people have long pre- due to its malfunction and complete abandonment in empted what the Buhari government would look like, some areas. Therefore, reports of rigging in some States even before the elections; as one that would have zero circulated freely. However, the mostly discussed were tolerance for corruption, and so corrupt people had to the happenings in Rivers State. It was difficult to fight, even though, desperately to protect their future. disbelieve the rumour that elections were not held in Today, while accounting for the success of INEC in the Rivers State, or put mildly, were not free and fair. 2015 presidential elections, the calm, confidence and ingenuity of the INEC boss, Professor Attahiru Jiga For one reason, this is the home of the first lady, must be upheld. If he had expressed little disgust, the Dame Patience Jonathan and also an enclave of collation could have been aborted, and that was the President Jonathan. It was imagined that the influence intention of Mr. Orubebe, when he seized the micro- and vigour of the Rivers State governor, Rotimi phone, accused Jiga of bias and ordered the INEC Amaechi, who had dumped the PDP for APC could officers to vacate the premise for their office.

Table-2: Results of the 2015 Presidential Election by Party PARTES VOTES SCORED % OF VOTES SCRED AA 22, 125 0.08 ACPN 40, 211 0.14 AD 30,673 0.11 ADC 29,666 0.10 APA 53,537 0.19 APC 15, 424, 921 53.96 CPP 36, 300 0.13 HOPE 7, 435 0.03 KOWA 13, 076 0.05 NCP 24, 445 0.09 PDP 12, 853, 162 44.96 PPN 24, 475 0.09 UDP 9, 208 0.03 UPP 18, 220 0.06 Source: Independent National Electoral Commission, 2015

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Akaayar Felix Ahokegh.; Saudi J. Humanities Soc. Sci.; Vol-2, Iss-1(Jan, 2017):58-65 Table-3: 2015 Presidential Elections: APC and PDP States Scores S/N STATES APC PDP 1 Ekiti 120331 176466 2 Ogun 308290 207950 3 Enugu 14157 553003 4 Kogi 264851 149987 5 Osun 383603 249929 6 Ondo 299889 251368 7 FCT 146399 154195 8 Oyo 528620 303376 9 Nasarawa 236838 273460 10 Kano 1903999 215779 11 Jigawa 885988 142904 12 Katsina 1345441 98937 13 Kwara 302146 132602 14 Kaduna 1127760 484085 15 Anambra 17926 660762 16 Imo 133253 559185 17 Delta 48910 1211405 18 Plateau 429170 549615 19 Yobe 446265 25526 20 Gombe 361245 96873 21 Taraba 261326 310800 22 Niger 657678 149222 23 Zamfara 612202 144833 24 Lagos 792460 632327 25 Cross River 28368 414863 26 Bayelsa 5194 361209 27 Akwa-Ibom 58411 953304 28 Edo 208469 286869 29 Bauchi 931598 86085 30 Benue 373961 303737 31 Ebonyi 1958 323653 32 Kebbi 567883 100972 33 Sokoto 671926 152199 34 Rivers 69238 1487075 35 Borno 473543 25640 36 Abia 13394 368303 37 Adamawa 374701 251664 Total 15, 424, 921 12, 853, 162 Source: Independent National Electoral Commission, 2015

While Table 2 shows the 14 political parties Once the result announced showed that that contested the presidential election and the total Mohammadu Buhari won the presidential election, votes scored by each party, Table 3 shows the Jonathan quickly conceded defeat and congratulated the performance of the two major rival parties, PDP and President-elect. The hopes of the continued existence of APC in each state of the federation and the Federal Nigeria peacefully were rekindled. But Jonathan’s Capital Territory (FCT). The PDP won landslide action traumatized many of his supporters; those who victories in the south-east and south-south geo-political could not easily believe they are out of power. Such zones. This applied to the APC that clinched majority people wished that Jonathan rejected the result of the votes in the north-east, north-west, north-central and presidential election, to throw Nigeria into crisis. They south-west geo-political zones. The final result shows had envisaged a situation where crisis would erupt in the APC winning the election with total votes of 15, the country and consequently the entire election 424, 921 above 12, 852, 162 votes scored by the PDP. declared cancelled, paving the way for another election or even a military take-over.

Goodluck Jonathan Accepts Defeat: Implications for So, the absence of post-election crisis in Democracy in Nigeria Nigeria is the creation of Goodluck Jonathan. Majority

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Akaayar Felix Ahokegh.; Saudi J. Humanities Soc. Sci.; Vol-2, Iss-1(Jan, 2017):58-65 of Nigerians are happy with him at least for the peace CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS FOR they enjoy in the present. To former senate president, IMPROVEMENT David Mark: This paper examines the conduct of the 2015 The decision of President Goodluck Jonathan presidential election in Nigeria. It reveals that elections to concede defeat in the 2015 presidential in Nigeria have a tradition of crisis, most profoundly, election saved Nigeria from crisis and presidential elections. The reason for this unending vile catastrophe…also added value to the situation is what pundits attribute to the defective consolidation of democracy in the country. structure of Nigeria’s federalism. Each person or group The current development in the country had is eyeing the oil wealth controlled by the central raised the benchmark for peaceful democratic government, which any individual that becomes transition and consequently sets a new president could appropriate to himself and his cronies democratic template in Africa hitherto and cohorts. Even the issue of ethnicity, which makes notorious for its infamous sit-tight leaders. The groups complain of marginalization, is tied to this outcome of the elections have greatly economic issue; the appropriation of national resources disappointed doomsday prophets who by the centre. It is the belief that by the smooth predicted disaster and even a possible break up transition of power in the 2015 election, the door has of our country…the introduction of the Card been opened for peace, socio-political and economic Readers added value to the electoral development of Nigeria. Consequently the following process…Nigerians should accept and indeed suggestions are advanced to help improve the situation: imbibe the new voting technology [12].  Politicians must continually chant and uphold the Goodluck Jonathan formula of political Not only Nigerians commended the gesture of sportsmanship. It is only the realization of the Goodluck Jonathan. Former US President, Jimmy fact that politics is a game that passes over Carter simply described him as a symbol of democracy victory from one person to another on the African Continent, having set an example for periodically, that they can eschew the required other African leaders to follow. President Mohammadu bitterness for peace to prevail Buhari is not doubtful that Nigeria would have been in  There is serious need to make politics, which crisis if Jonathan never conceded defeat. He adjudged conceptually is taking the burden to provide Jonathan’s action as having turned around Nigeria’s solution to the problem of society, less nervous political process, and concluded that the action attractive. This can be done by demonetizing has lasting impact and influence on politics in Africa. the polity, to shelve off the people who do not have the slightest passion to take the burden of Yet, other commentators appear not to see solving the masses’ problems. They go into anything spectacular about Jonathan’s action. To such politics, get elected and make much money, people, even if he had rejected the election, Buhari’s which makes them lords over their victory could have remained unchanged and his constituents. (Jonathan) personality smeared. Furthermore, they  The paper also suggests the restructuring of the argue that nowhere in Africa have election results been Nigerian federalism; precisely more powers cancelled just because a presidential candidate refused should be devolved to the constituent parts. to concede defeat. This school of thought is popularized Such powers include control of economic by Femi Adesina, who regards Jonathan’s action as ‘a resources, reversal of revenue allocation clever self-serving decision’, which otherwise could formula to give the centre less. This have landed him in jail. Adesina concludes that undoubtedly, will reduce the much clamour for Jonathan could have been tried by the World Court in control of the centre and make politics Hague and jailed for inciting post-election violence and relatively peaceful killing of innocent Nigerians [13]. REFERENCES It is clear that Femi Adesina did not dispute 1. Schumpeter, J. A. (2013). 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