Senate Election Map Could Be GOP's Saving Grace

April 5, 2018 Senate Election Map Could Be GOP’s Saving Grace

What's Happening: It's 215 days until the 2018 midterm elections and the latest polling has Democrats leading Republicans by 8.0 points in a generic polling tracker. After the December upset victory of Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama, Republicans now hold a razor thin 51-49 edge over Democrats in the Senate. A net of two seats will give Democrats control of the upper chamber in November. But of the 35 Senate seats up for election this year, 26 are held by Democrats (and Independents) and nine are held by Republicans.

Why It Matters: As the much-ballyhooed anticipated Democratic wave puts Republicans in grave danger of losing control of the House, Republicans continue to have a stronger hand--albeit not invincible--to retain control of their majority in the Senate. The main reason for the GOP's Senate fortunes is the electoral map. For House Democrats, victory for them runs through states like California, New York, New Jersey, and other areas where President Trump and the Republican brand do not fare well. However in the Senate, Democrats face much tougher geographic terrain as they defend and seek inroads that go through the heart of Trump country. Incumbent Senate Democrats face a historically difficult map in 2018 as they are defending 26 seats -- 10 of which are in states Trump won -- compared to the only nine seats in total that Republicans are defending. Among several of the 10 states Trump won in 2016 that Senate Democrats are defending, the president's margin of victory was significant: +41.7 points in West Virginia, +35.8 points in North Dakota, +20.2 points in Montana, +19.0 points in Indiana, and +18.5 points in Missouri. No matter the personal, independent brand some Democratic senators have been able to cultivate, the structural Republican advantage in these states may be just too much to overcome. The most plausible victory for Democrats is by defending nearly all of their seats, picking up the seats in Arizona, Nevada, and maybe, Tennessee, and getting another chance of a pick up in Arizona with the potential retirement of Senator John McCain (R-AZ). While not inconceivable, and much can change before the election, the current road to 51 Senate seats remains challenging for Democrats.

What's Next: As the election season progresses, the final announcement of candidates running for office will occur as the filing deadlines are upcoming for most states. This includes the expected announcement next week of Florida Governor Rick Scott to challenge Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL). After the filing deadlines, more states will hold their primaries, with the contested Republican primaries in Indiana and West Virginia set for May 8th as important to watch. In general, as the election fields from and November gets closer, there will also be more and better polling on the different races, giving a clearer picture of the national landscape and the individual state races.

Senate Midterm Election Outlook: Parsing Through All the Variables

Nate Silver, editor-in-chief for FiveThirtyEight, tweeted out in February a series of indicators that will affect the midterm elections in November. After listing out the indicators, Silver said, "It's super easy to cherry-pick almost any narrative you want from these indicators." In analyzing the state of the Senate midterm elections, we have highlighted below several noteworthy variables and their current status and trend in shaping the election:

In an interview with the editorial board of Kentucky Today, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Tuesday played up the challenges Republicans face in the midterm elections, saying, "This is going to be a challenging election year. We know the wind is going to be in our face. We don't know whether it's going to be a Category 3, 4, or 5. ...I'm hoping we can hold the Senate."

McConnell does have reasons to be concerned about Republicans maintaining the Senate majority. The national mood is certainly against Republicans and President Trump. In looking at special elections since 2016, Democrats are running on average 13 points ahead of Clinton's 2016 margins. For the 23 special elections so far held in 2018, that margin for Democrats has averaged 22 points ahead of 2016. While just one variable, the special elections are the most definitive data point in showing a coming Democratic wave. The special elections have occurred all over the map, in states and districts that run from blue to dark red.

The Trump Factor: Though President Trump's name will not be on the ballot this year, his presence looms large in the background in many Senate races. The president is very much on the mind of voters across the country. In the national scope, this is bad for the GOP as Trump's approval rating is at historic lows for a president. But in many of the competitive Senate races, Trump's approval ratings are fairly strong. Trump's national approval/disapproval rating according to a Morning Consult tracker was at 41/54 percent in March. But in many of the states where Senate elections are being held, Trump's approval/disapproval rating is faring better (although worse than when he first was elected). This includes Arizona (48/49), Florida (48/48), Indiana (48/47), Missouri (50/45), Montana (50/46), Nevada (45/51), North Dakota (53/43), Ohio (46/50), and West Virginia (61/35). The president, who has stated his desire to be active in the midterm election cycle, is likely to focus his and the White House's political resources on many of these states where he can help energize the Republican base that is still largely loyal to the president and his message.

The Power of the Senate Incumbent: For Senate Democrats, history shows midterm elections are more favorable for the party opposite the one in the White House. Since 1982, there have been 114 senators who have run in midterm elections that were in the opposite party to that of the president. These incumbent senators had a reelection rate of 96 percent, with only four senators losing. In that same time period, the midterm reelection rate of 128 senators from the same party as the president was 80 percent. With 26 Senate Democrats up for reelection, the historical trend would project a loss of just one to two seats. For the nine Republicans up for reelection, the historical trend would project a loss of one to two seats as well. While each election cycle is different and each election is unique in several ways, this underlying baseline of the power of the incumbency shows that the GOP's efforts to pick up seats held in Trump states is no easy undertaking.

Senate Recruitment: Senate Republican leaders have struggled to recruit top-tier candidates for competitive races for 2018 in a sign that many would-be challengers see the environment as negative for Republicans. In numerous instances, top choices for national Republicans took a pass on Senate races that were seen as winnable in Trump territory. In Indiana, Rep. Susan Brooks, who was the favored candidate to take on Senator Joe Donnelly, surprised many by passing on the race back in January 2017. In her place, a heated three-way primary has occurred between Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita and state Rep. Mike Braun. In Missouri, Rep. Ann Wagner, who was the favored candidate to take on Senator McCaskill, opted against a run in July. This has led to state Attorney General Josh Hawley to be the favored candidate. However, Hawley has faced some missteps as of late which is raising doubts about his ability to run a competent campaign against a formidable and well-funded incumbent. In Montana, Senator Jon Tester still has no challenger as state Attorney General Tim Fox passed on what was to be an expected campaign, leaving a crowded Republican primary field in his wake. Republicans have also failed at recruiting top talent for races in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Democrats meanwhile have been able to recruit top talent in what they view as competitive races. This includes getting former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen in the race to succeed Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) in the race to succeed Senator Jeff Flake, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) in the race against Senator Dean Heller (R- NV), and even Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) in the race against Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX).

However, as a possible indication that Republicans view the midterm election environment more favorably, top GOP recruits have recently decided to enter several Senate races. Helping Senate Republicans is the expected announcement next week from Florida Governor Rick Scott that he will be challenging Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL). A two-term governor with deep pockets, Scott is a top recruit for Senate Republicans to challenge a Democratic senator in a state won by Trump. A February 2018 Quinnipiac University poll showed Nelson leading Scott 46 percent to 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) in February decided to reconsider his decision to pass up running against Senator Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, and has formally entered the Senate race. Since Cramer is the only House member from North Dakota, he would run a statewide race for either the House or Senate position -- meaning his decision to run for Senate shows that he now thinks Heitkamp is more vulnerable than before. GOP leadership is also happy about Rep. Martha McSally's (R-AZ) decision to enter the race to replace retiring Senator Jeff Flake and the decision by both Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV) and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey to run in the West Virginia race against Senator Joe Manchin. With the filing deadline in many states creeping up, Republicans' window to field more top-flight candidates is closing. But the last minute boost in candidate quality helped salvage what has been a largely disappointing recruitment cycle for Republicans.

Republican Retirements: In the Senate, Senators Flake and Corker have decided to not seek reelection. Both senators were known to criticize the president which left them without the critical support of the Republican base. Their retirements have created two pickup opportunities for Democrats who have recruited top-tier candidates in both races. Despite Flake and Corker's unpopularity among Republicans, open seats deny the Republicans the inherent incumbent advantage that comes with greater name recognition and financial resources. Another potential retirement that could upset the narrow balance of the Senate is that of Senator John McCain (R-AZ). Currently being treated for brain cancer, the health of the senior senator from Arizona poses the possibility that a second Senate seat in Arizona will open up before November. According to Arizona law, the governor will make a temporary appointment but then "the vacancy shall be filled at the next general election." However, a separate provision states that candidates must file for election by May 30th in order to appear on the November ballot. If McCain relinquishes his seat in the second half of 2018, there will no doubt be controversy around an election for the seat this year or next. But it nevertheless raises the specter of another pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Republican Primary Threats: While the specter of a Steve Bannon-led war against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the Washington establishment has failed to materialize, Republicans still face some risks from the far right in Senate races in Arizona and West Virginia. In an interview in February with the New York Times, McConnell said he was open to "intervening in some party primary contests." Stung over the years by controversial primary challengers -- like Todd Akin in Missouri, Richard Mourdock in Indiana, and Roy Moore in Alabama -- who all won upset primaries only later to lose the general election, McConnell is seeking to tamp down any possible uprising against his preferred candidates. This means ensuring former state Sen. Kelli Ward and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio don't upset McConnell's preferred candidate of Rep. McSally in Arizona, Don Blackenship, the coal mine magnate imprisoned for violating federal mine safety standards, does not win the West Virginia Republican primary, and conservative firebrand and Mississippi state Senator Chris McDaniel does not unseat the newly appointed Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Given the ouster of Steve Bannon from Trump world and the failure of any material organization and financing for these primary challengers, it's unlikely McConnell and establishment Republicans will see past primary upsets materialize again this year. McConnell already successfully recruited Trump to push Danny Tarkanian to drop his planned primary challenge to Senator Heller in Nevada, which will help Heller allocate resources and attention to the general election.

Messaging: Republicans often are all-consumed with controversies stemming from the White House, leaving them on the defensive and in a reactionary position much of the time. Despite the continuing difficulties of crafting a winning message for the electorate, there has been a definite improvement from last year's doldrums when Republicans were mired in the failure of repeal and replacement of Obamacare and the president was publicly berating congressional Republicans for a lack of progress on several issues. The passage of tax reform was the signature and unifying piece of legislation for Republicans that gave them the mantle of a governing party. Even though the tax law passed on partisan lines as a historically unpopular piece of legislation, the concerted effort by Republicans and outside groups to sell the tax cuts has paid dividends, increasing in popularity over the months. Republican leaders have focused almost solely on messaging of the tax cuts for the midterm elections. National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokesman Matt Gorman said, "It’s very clear that tax reform was going to be the biggest legislative crown jewel of this Congress. That is a massive centerpiece of our campaign.”

But such focus has proven ill-advised as the tax cuts do not carry much emotional weight among voters. Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA) said, "I think the bigger challenge for members is defining themselves. Members must develop their own brand for their district, if they haven't already, and then go out and sell it. Tax reform might be part of that brand, but boy, you better have a brand this year. If your brand is just generic Republican, that's going to be a problem." Republicans abandoned the tax cut-focused messaging in the PA-18 special election race last month after it failed to grab much traction.

While the messaging of a midterm election revolves mostly around the performance of Trump and the Republican party, Democrats are struggling to create a message of their own that they believe will resonate with voters. Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC, released a memo in February telling Democrats they are losing the messaging war on the economy and healthcare, warning that they "must reassert control over the economic narrative if they are going to maximize electoral success in House, Senate and governors’ races this fall." The memo goes on to say that "Democrats continue to have winning messages on health care and the economy, but right now voters are not hearing them. That must change."

Republican Offensive Push

Taking the latest ratings Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, there are 11 out of the 26 Senate seats held by Democrats that will be competitive to varying degrees in November.

Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia are currently the four best shots for Republicans to flip a Democratic seat. SurveyMonkey/Axios online polls from February and March showed Democrat incumbents behind in these four Senate races plus in Montana as well. President Trump and Vice President Pence have already made several visits to these four states and will continue to do so leading up to the November elections. For Democratic incumbents running for reelection in the heart of Trump country, many are on borrowed time as they try to live in an erstwhile era of the "Red-state Democrat." This is especially true in North Dakota and West Virginia where Heitkamp and Manchin's personal brands can only go so far in overwhelmingly pro-Trump states.

For Donnelly and McCaskill, they will also no longer have the luxury of running against critically weak opponents as was the case in 2012. Even facing just middle-of-the-road Republican candidates will be a major test for the two midwestern politicians who will need to appeal to Trump voters and GOP voters who may be dissatisfied with the president.

Democratic Offensive Push

According to the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, five of the nine Republican-held Senate seats being contested this year have varying degrees of competitiveness. The best pick up opportunity for Democrats is in Nevada. Senator Heller is the one Republican this election cycle who is in a state where the demographic and political trends are working against him. The state voted for Clinton and Trump's approval ratings, while above the national average, are still negative. Heller himself has been a weak campaigner so far, getting outraised by his likely Democratic opponent, Rep. Rosen, in Q4 2017.

Arizona and, to a lesser extent, Tennessee, present the two other most likely pick up opportunities for Democrats as neither race will have a Republican incumbent. Rep. Sinema continues to earn plaudits for her fundraising and campaigning skills and is making a concerted effort to appeal as a moderate Democrat as Republicans hew to the right in a contested primary. Former Governor Bredesen received encouraging news from an independent poll released today showing him with a 10-point lead over Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). While an early poll in a reliably pro-Trump and Republican state, if Bredesen is able to tap the reservoir of goodwill he seems to still have since his time as governor, he could put up a serious challenge for the Senate seat.

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