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Senate Election Map Could Be GOP's Saving Grace

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Senate Election Map Could Be GOP's Saving Grace April 5, 2018 Senate Election Map Could Be GOP’s Saving Grace What's Happening: It's 215 days until the 2018 midterm elections and the latest polling has Democrats leading Republicans by 8.0 points in a generic polling tracker. After the December upset victory of Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama, Republicans now hold a razor thin 51-49 edge over Democrats in the Senate. A net of two seats will give Democrats control of the upper chamber in November. But of the 35 Senate seats up for election this year, 26 are held by Democrats (and Independents) and nine are held by Republicans. Why It Matters: As the much-ballyhooed anticipated Democratic wave puts Republicans in grave danger of losing control of the House, Republicans continue to have a stronger hand--albeit not invincible--to retain control of their majority in the Senate. The main reason for the GOP's Senate fortunes is the electoral map. For House Democrats, victory for them runs through states like California, New York, New Jersey, and other areas where President Trump and the Republican brand do not fare well. However in the Senate, Democrats face much tougher geographic terrain as they defend and seek inroads that go through the heart of Trump country. Incumbent Senate Democrats face a historically difficult map in 2018 as they are defending 26 seats -- 10 of which are in states Trump won -- compared to the only nine seats in total that Republicans are defending. Among several of the 10 states Trump won in 2016 that Senate Democrats are defending, the president's margin of victory was significant: +41.7 points in West Virginia, +35.8 points in North Dakota, +20.2 points in Montana, +19.0 points in Indiana, and +18.5 points in Missouri. No matter the personal, independent brand some Democratic senators have been able to cultivate, the structural Republican advantage in these states may be just too much to overcome. The most plausible victory for Democrats is by defending nearly all of their seats, picking up the seats in Arizona, Nevada, and maybe, Tennessee, and getting another chance of a pick up in Arizona with the potential retirement of Senator John McCain (R-AZ). While not inconceivable, and much can change before the election, the current road to 51 Senate seats remains challenging for Democrats. What's Next: As the election season progresses, the final announcement of candidates running for office will occur as the filing deadlines are upcoming for most states. This includes the expected announcement next week of Florida Governor Rick Scott to challenge Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL). After the filing deadlines, more states will hold their primaries, with the contested Republican primaries in Indiana and West Virginia set for May 8th as important to watch. In general, as the election fields from and November gets closer, there will also be more and better polling on the different races, giving a clearer picture of the national landscape and the individual state races. Senate Midterm Election Outlook: Parsing Through All the Variables Nate Silver, editor-in-chief for FiveThirtyEight, tweeted out in February a series of indicators that will affect the midterm elections in November. After listing out the indicators, Silver said, "It's super easy to cherry-pick almost any narrative you want from these indicators." In analyzing the state of the Senate midterm elections, we have highlighted below several noteworthy variables and their current status and trend in shaping the election: In an interview with the editorial board of Kentucky Today, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Tuesday played up the challenges Republicans face in the midterm elections, saying, "This is going to be a challenging election year. We know the wind is going to be in our face. We don't know whether it's going to be a Category 3, 4, or 5. ...I'm hoping we can hold the Senate." McConnell does have reasons to be concerned about Republicans maintaining the Senate majority. The national mood is certainly against Republicans and President Trump. In looking at special elections since 2016, Democrats are running on average 13 points ahead of Clinton's 2016 margins. For the 23 special elections so far held in 2018, that margin for Democrats has averaged 22 points ahead of 2016. While just one variable, the special elections are the most definitive data point in showing a coming Democratic wave. The special elections have occurred all over the map, in states and districts that run from blue to dark red. The Trump Factor: Though President Trump's name will not be on the ballot this year, his presence looms large in the background in many Senate races. The president is very much on the mind of voters across the country. In the national scope, this is bad for the GOP as Trump's approval rating is at historic lows for a president. But in many of the competitive Senate races, Trump's approval ratings are fairly strong. Trump's national approval/disapproval rating according to a Morning Consult tracker was at 41/54 percent in March. But in many of the states where Senate elections are being held, Trump's approval/disapproval rating is faring better (although worse than when he first was elected). This includes Arizona (48/49), Florida (48/48), Indiana (48/47), Missouri (50/45), Montana (50/46), Nevada (45/51), North Dakota (53/43), Ohio (46/50), and West Virginia (61/35). The president, who has stated his desire to be active in the midterm election cycle, is likely to focus his and the White House's political resources on many of these states where he can help energize the Republican base that is still largely loyal to the president and his message. The Power of the Senate Incumbent: For Senate Democrats, history shows midterm elections are more favorable for the party opposite the one in the White House. Since 1982, there have been 114 senators who have run in midterm elections that were in the opposite party to that of the president. These incumbent senators had a reelection rate of 96 percent, with only four senators losing. In that same time period, the midterm reelection rate of 128 senators from the same party as the president was 80 percent. With 26 Senate Democrats up for reelection, the historical trend would project a loss of just one to two seats. For the nine Republicans up for reelection, the historical trend would project a loss of one to two seats as well. While each election cycle is different and each election is unique in several ways, this underlying baseline of the power of the incumbency shows that the GOP's efforts to pick up seats held in Trump states is no easy undertaking. Senate Recruitment: Senate Republican leaders have struggled to recruit top-tier candidates for competitive races for 2018 in a sign that many would-be challengers see the environment as negative for Republicans. In numerous instances, top choices for national Republicans took a pass on Senate races that were seen as winnable in Trump territory. In Indiana, Rep. Susan Brooks, who was the favored candidate to take on Senator Joe Donnelly, surprised many by passing on the race back in January 2017. In her place, a heated three-way primary has occurred between Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita and state Rep. Mike Braun. In Missouri, Rep. Ann Wagner, who was the favored candidate to take on Senator McCaskill, opted against a run in July. This has led to state Attorney General Josh Hawley to be the favored candidate. However, Hawley has faced some missteps as of late which is raising doubts about his ability to run a competent campaign against a formidable and well-funded incumbent. In Montana, Senator Jon Tester still has no challenger as state Attorney General Tim Fox passed on what was to be an expected campaign, leaving a crowded Republican primary field in his wake. Republicans have also failed at recruiting top talent for races in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Democrats meanwhile have been able to recruit top talent in what they view as competitive races. This includes getting former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen in the race to succeed Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) in the race to succeed Senator Jeff Flake, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) in the race against Senator Dean Heller (R- NV), and even Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) in the race against Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX). However, as a possible indication that Republicans view the midterm election environment more favorably, top GOP recruits have recently decided to enter several Senate races. Helping Senate Republicans is the expected announcement next week from Florida Governor Rick Scott that he will be challenging Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL). A two-term governor with deep pockets, Scott is a top recruit for Senate Republicans to challenge a Democratic senator in a state won by Trump. A February 2018 Quinnipiac University poll showed Nelson leading Scott 46 percent to 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) in February decided to reconsider his decision to pass up running against Senator Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, and has formally entered the Senate race. Since Cramer is the only House member from North Dakota, he would run a statewide race for either the House or Senate position -- meaning his decision to run for Senate shows that he now thinks Heitkamp is more vulnerable than before. GOP leadership is also happy about Rep. Martha McSally's (R-AZ) decision to enter the race to replace retiring Senator Jeff Flake and the decision by both Rep.
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