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KMC Cebu Office Briefing 4Q2020

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KMC Research Cebu Office Briefing 4Q 2020 Cebu | Office Briefing Cebu Business Districts Future Stock (2024) MAP 1 OAKRIDGE BUSINESS PARK CEBU CITY CEBU IT PARK NORKIS MANDAUE CITY CYBERPARK LAPU-LAPU CITY CORDOVA CEBU MANDANI BAY BUSINESS PARK CEBU ABOITIZ - AYALA DOWNTOWN BUSINESS PARK AREA NORTH MACTAN NEWTOWN RECLAMATION AREA SM - AYALA SOUTH JOINT VENTURE ROAD PROPERTIES SM SEASIDE CITY CEBU COMPLEX CITY DI MARE 505,623.0 sq m 437,499.1 sq m 362,640.8 sq m CEBU IT PARK CEBU BUSINESS PARK CEBU FRINGE Source: KMC Savills Research DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (2021-2024) CURRENT STOCK TABLE 1 Key Figures - Grade A Office Cebu Business Cebu IT Cebu 4Q 2020 Unit Cebu Park Park Fringe PHP/sq m 580.8 619.7 513.7 577.4 Average net rental rate USD/sq ft 1.12 1.19 0.99 1.11 PHP/sq m 650.0 700.0 550.0 700.0 Upper net rental rate USD/sq ft 1.25 1.35 1.06 1.35 Vacancy rate (%) % 15.5% 23.6% 16.6% 15.1% Current stock (sq m) sq m 380,339.1 378,280.0 272,884.1 1,031,503.2 Development pipeline sq m 57,160.0 127,343.0 89,756.7 274,259.7 2021-2024 (sq m) Source: KMC Savills Research 2 4Q 2020 Cebu GRAPH 1 GRAPH 2 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-up Cebu Grade A Office Supply Cebu Grade A Office Stock Cebu Grade A Office Take-up Cebu Grade A Office Vacancy Rate 160 1,500 25% 120 1,200 20% 80 900 15% 40 '000 sq m (GLA) '000 sq m (GLA) 600 10% 0 300 5% -40 0 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F -80 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 3 GRAPH 4 Rental Performance Development Pipeline by District Cebu Fringe Cebu Rental Growth, YoY Cebu Business Park Cebu Grade A Office Rental Index Cebu IT Park 160 30% 160 140 20% 120 120 10% 100 0% 80 1Q 2009 = 100 80 -10% '000 sq m (GLA) 60 -20% 40 40 -30% 1Q20093Q20091Q20103Q20101Q20113Q20111Q20123Q20121Q20133Q20131Q20143Q20141Q20153Q20151Q20163Q20161Q20173Q20171Q20183Q20181Q20193Q20191Q20203Q2020 0 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Overall vacancy in Cebu increased during the quarter and finished the year at an all-time high of 18.8%. All submarkets continued their slide from the previous quarter, with Cebu Business Park (CBP) and Cebu Fringe recording 8,300 sq m and 2,200 sq m of office space vacated, respectively. The biggest loser for the quarter was Cebu IT Park (CITP) which registered 89,200 sq m of vacant office space. Due to low demand from the opening of Central Bloc Tower 2, vacancy rates in the area grew to 23.6% in 4Q/2020. ■ Declines were seen across the board as landlords coped with the increased competition from recent vacancies and upcoming releases. CBP rents took the hardest hit, reversing its 2019 gains with a 3.3% drop YoY. This brought average rents in Cebu a 1.3% quarterly decrease at PHP 577.4 per sq m / month, dropping by 2.3% in 2020. We forecast rental rates to continue its downward trend as the market deals with the new supply in the coming months. ■ Around 149,800 sq m of fresh Grade A office supply is expected to come online in 2021. Demand is foreseen to remain muted due to weak leasing activity. As of year-end, more than 95% of this scheduled new inventory is still available in the market. This surplus may continue in the long term as Cebu deals with the effects of the pandemic. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 3 KMC Savills, Inc. Please contact us for further information Michael McCullough Fredrick Rara Managing Director Senior Manager [email protected] Research and Consultancy [email protected] Melo Porciuncula Gerold Fernando Executive Director Executive Director Investor Services Transactions and Advisory Services [email protected] [email protected] Rosario Carbonell John Corpus Executive Director Executive Director Transactions and Advisory Services Transactions and Advisory Services [email protected] [email protected] Rita Kash Karen Golez Senior Director Senior Director Transactions and Advisory Services Transactions and Advisory Services [email protected] [email protected] Since 2009, KMC has provided clients with award-winning real estate services. KMC delivers world-class service strengthened with local market expertise. With over 200 employees involved directly in transactions for office, investments, industrial & hotel locators, as well as residential properties, KMC is a full-service real estate firm that has successfully become the leading local firm in the Philippine real estate services industry. This bulletin is for general information purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, KMC accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising. The bulletin is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from KMC..
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