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1 Od Redakcji 1 BANK I KREDYT wrzesieƒ 2001 Od Redakcji 1 prof. nadzw. dr hab. Stanis∏aw Flejterski Zaproszenie do napisania tego wst´pnego eseju dotar∏o do mnie podczas sierpniowego pobytu naukowego w Instytucie BankowoÊci i Finansów Wolnego Uniwersytetu w Berlinie. Dla akademickiego finansisty, by∏ego wieloletniego mened˝era bankowego, taka kilkutygodniowa podró˝ to Êwietna okazja do zapoznania si´ z setkami najnowszych publikacji anglo- i niemieckoj´zycznych z dziedziny szeroko rozumianych finansów, a tak˝e do rozmów z tamtejszymi uczonymi, z dyrektorem Instytutu prof. Lutzem Kruschwitz'em na czele. OczywiÊcie, rozmawialiÊmy o finansach: zarówno o realnych zjawiskach i procesach finansowych w Niemczech, w Polsce i w USA, jak i o tendencjach w nauce finansów, a ÊciÊlej w naukach finansowych. Niektórzy nieprzypadkowo twierdzà, ˝e finanse sà wspó∏czeÊnie najwa˝niejsze, najciekawsze i najtrudniejsze. Finanse globalne i miedzynarodowe, finanse publiczne - zarówno te „rzàdowe”, jak i samorzàdowe (regionalne i lokalne) - finanse rynków finansowych, z kapita∏owym na czele, finanse banków (banku centralnego, banków komercyjnych, uniwersalnych i wyspecjalizowanych, banków spó∏dzielczych, banków inwestycyjnych), finanse ubezpieczeƒ spo∏ecznych i gospodarczych, finanse przedsi´biorstw (zarówno corporate finance, jak i finanse ma∏ych i Êrednich przedsi´biorstw, w wydaniu niemieckim tzw. Mittelstand), finanse organizacji i instytucji typu non-profit (np. koÊcio∏ów, partii politycznych etc.), wreszcie - last but not least - finanse gospodarstw domowych. Zadaniem wymienionych subdyscypiln finansowych jest opisywanie i objaÊnianie natury zjawisk finansowych, a ponadto formu∏owanie twierdzeƒ, „jak byç powinno” i „co robiç, aby by∏o tak, jak byç powinno”. Finanse sà w gruncie rzeczy dyscyplinà przed wszystkim utylitarnà, zorientowanà na udzielanie praktycznych odpowiedzi politykom, mened˝erom, inwestorom etc. Wiele, bardzo wiele zale˝y od stopnia dojrza∏oÊci badaƒ uprawianych w ramach nauk finansowych, zarówno analiz, syntez, jak i prognoz. KiedyÊ jeden z ekonomistów wyg∏osi∏ znamiennà, nieco paradoksalnà opini´, ˝e „biznes, równie˝ finansowy, tak naprawd´ nie ma ˝adnego pod∏o˝a teoretycznego, zaÊ wszelkie rozwa˝ania na ten temat to zwyk∏e wodolejstwo”. JeÊli byç konsekwentnym, to w takim razie finanse uznaç nale˝a∏oby zaledwie za technik´ podejmowania decyzji o transakcjach finansowych, tak publicznych, jak i prywatnych. By∏em i jestem odmiennego zdania, uwa˝ajàc t´ opini´ za zbyt uproszczonà i nieuprawnionà. MyÊl´, ˝e roli dobrej teorii dla biznesu finansowego nie sposób przeceniç, co w innym uj´ciu brzmi: „teoria bez praktyki jest ja∏owa, praktyka bez teorii Êlepa”. Wiemy coraz wi´cej, ale... Stan finansów publicznych i prywatnych w Polsce jaki jest, ka˝dy (prawie ka˝dy?) widzi. Jak je porównaç z finansami USA, Japonii, Niemiec czy te˝ innych paƒstw Unii Europejskiej? Te kraje te˝ majà, mia∏y i b´dà mieç swoje problemy gospodarcze i finansowe. Przyk∏ady mo˝na mno˝yç, choçby te ze wspó∏czesnej gospodarki niemieckiej: stan finansów Berlina czy te˝ trudnoÊci landów wschodnioniemieckich. RozmawialiÊmy w Berlinie równie˝ o jednej z najbardziej pasjonujàcych kwestii metodologicznych, mianowicie o tzw. Uebertragbarkeit, czyli mo˝liwoÊci transferu wzorców i modeli mi´dzy krajami znajdujàcymi si´ w ró˝nych stadiach rozwoju. Czy tzw. amerykaƒski model nadaje si´ do zastosowania w warunkach europejskich, niemieckich, a tym bardziej polskich? Co by∏oby bardziej odpowiednie dla Polski „tu i teraz”, jesienià 2001 r.: podejÊcie amerykaƒskie z dominujàcà rolà gie∏dy papierów wartoÊciowych w przemyÊle finansowym, czy te˝ niemieckie, odznaczajàce si´ supremacjà banków („banki, banki ponad wszystko”). Ró˝nice mi´dzy Niemcami a USA sà oczywiste, podobnie jak mi´dzy USA a Polskà oraz mi´dzy Niemcami a Polskà. Wspó∏czesne finanse nie przystajà do prostych, spoistych wzorów, do stereotypów myÊlowych, cz´sto natomiast wydajà si´ - na pierwszy rzut oka - bez∏adne i nielogiczne. Z uwagi na z∏o˝onoÊç przedmiotu analizy nies∏uszne z metodologicznego punktu widzenia by∏oby tworzenie uniwersalnych modeli czy te˝ formu∏owanie kategorycznych ponadczasowych ocen i konkluzji (bardziej uprawniona jest wi´c „heterodoksja” zamiast „ortodoksji”). Jedno jest pewne: roli poprawnej metodologii w naukach ekonomicznych, w tym finansowych, nie sposób przeceniç. Podobnie jak roli pokory i skromnoÊci, gdy chodzi o wszelkie prognozy i obietnice. prof. nadzw. dr hab. Stanis∏aw Flejterski Prodziekan ds. Nauki Kierownik Zak∏adu BankowoÊci i Finansów Porównawczych na Wydziale Zarzàdzania i Ekonomiki Us∏ug Uniwersytetu Szczeciƒskiego Wiktor Zajkowski GAD ROK XXXI BANKBANK II KREDYTKREDYT wrzesieƒ 2001 4 Leokadia Or´ziak Tendencje w rozwoju rynku finansowego w ramach obszaru euro 16 Micha∏ Rubaszek, Dobromi∏ Serwa Prognozowanie kursu waluto- wego. Model nadzwyczajnej stopy zwrotu z inwestycji zagranicznych 26 Wojciech Morawski Historia bankowoÊci centralnej - Bundesbank i je- go poprzednicy 34 Kamilla Marchewka Cele i niezale˝noÊç polityki zarzàdzania d∏ugiem publicznym - doÊwiadczenia wybranych krajów 46 Wojciech Pacho Ekonomiczna teoria biurokracji 52 Ma∏gorzata Zaleska Kryzys w japoƒskim systemie bankowym 61 Andrzej Karpio Kredyt o sta∏ym strumieniu rat kapita∏owych 65 Rafa∏ Walkiewicz Rynek bankowoÊci inwestycyjnej - kontratak banków komercyjnych 72 Praca zbiorowa pod red. J. G∏uchowskiego. Leksykon finansów rec. Stanis∏aw Flejterski 74 Summaries ABC bankowe Leokadia Or´ziak G∏ówne waluty mi´dzynarodowe Wydawca Kolegium Redakcyjne Projekt i sk∏ad (dostawa w sposób uzgodniony). Wp∏aty do 5.12 - na I kw. nast´pnego roku, do 5.03 - konto: przyjmuje Oddzia∏ Krajowej Dystrybucji Prasy na II kw.br., do 5.06 na III kw. br., do 5.09 na Narodowy Bank Polski, Piotr Boguszewski, DOCTORAD Centrala NBP - Departament 00-919 Warszawa, „RUCH“ SA na konto: Pekao SA IV O/Warszawa IV kw. br. Informacje o warunkach prenumera- El˝bieta Czarny Operacyjno-Rachunkowy nr konta ulica Âwi´tokrzyska 11/21, Ryszard Czerniawski, 12401053-40060347-2700-401112-001 lub ty w „RUCH” SA OKDP, 00-958 Warszawa, ul. Druk NBP DOR 10100000-13-209-90 Dariusz Daniluk, kasa Oddzia∏u. Cena prenumeraty ze zlece- Jana Kazimierza 31/33 mo˝na uzyskaç pod tel. telefony Drukarnia NBP Ryszard Kokoszczyƒski, niem dostawy za granic´ jest o 100% wy˝sza 532-87-31, 532-88-20. I pó∏r. 2001 r. - 72,00 z∏; 1 egz. - 12,00 z∏ 653 20 77 (redaktor naczelny), od krajowej. Zlecenia na prenumerat´ dewizo- Prenumerata w∏asna i sprzeda˝ pojedynczych 653 23 35 Karol Lutkowski II pó∏r. 2001 r. - 72,00 z∏; 1 egz. - 12,00 z∏ Zofia Musia∏ (zast´pca redaktora naczelnego), Prenumerata wà, przyjmowane od osób zamieszka∏ych za egzemplarzy: (zast´pca redaktora naczelnego), Redakcja zastrzega sobie prawo do skracania 653 25 71 (sekretarz redakcji), Bogus∏aw Pietrzak (redaktor naczelny) „RUCH” SA - wp∏aty na prenumerat´ przyjmu- granicà, realizowane sà od dowolnego nume- Narodowy Bank Polski - Departament i opracowywania redakcyjnego tekstów. fax 653 13 21 Danuta Stasiak - Lipowska jà: jednostki kolporta˝owe w∏aÊciwe dla miej- ru w danym roku kalendarzowym. Wp∏aty sà Komunikacji Spo∏ecznej , 00-919 Warszawa, http://www.nbp.pl Iwona Stefaniak (sekretarz redakcji) sca zamieszkania lub siedziby prenumeratora przyjmowane na okresy kwartalne w terminie: ulica Âwi´tokrzyska 11/21, Artyku∏ów nie zamówionych nie zwracamy. 4 Rynki i Instytucje Finansowe BANK I KREDYT wrzesieƒ 2001 Tendencje w rozwoju rynku finansowego w ramach obszaru euro Leokadia Or´ziak Euro jako waluta Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej pieniàdz. Zgodnie z Traktatem z Maastricht, ma to na- stàpiç najpóêniej do po∏owy 2002 r., a faktycznie pla- Z poczàtkiem 2002 r. minà 3 lata od ustanowienia ob- nuje si´ sfinalizowaç te dzia∏ania w ciàgu pierwszych szaru (strefy) euro, obejmujàcego obecnie 12 krajów 6 - 8 tygodni przysz∏ego roku. Unii Europejskiej (UE). Zgodnie z Traktatem o Unii Eu- Bank centralny UGW - Europejski System Banków ropejskiej, podpisanym w Maastricht w lutym 1992 r., Centralnych - skutecznie realizowa∏ dotychczas polity- UE jest jednoczeÊnie Unià Gospodarczà i Walutowà k´ pieni´˝nà nastawionà na stabilnoÊç cen. Inflacja na (Economic and Monetary Union - EMU). UGW tworzo- obszarze euro by∏a w minionym okresie bardzo niska: na by∏a w trzech etapach1. PrzejÊcie do trzeciego, final- w 1999 r. 1,1%, w 2000 r. 2,3%, zaÊ w marcu 2001 r. nego etapu nastàpi∏o z dniem 1 stycznia 1999 r. i ozna- 2,6%. Rezultaty te uda∏o si´ osiàgnàç przy stopie wzro- cza∏o definitywne zrzeczenie si´ przez poszczególne stu gospodarczego wynoszàcej w 1999 r. 2,5%, a w 2000 r. kraje prawa do emisji w∏asnego pieniàdza. Prawo to 3,4%. Wzrost gospodarczy na obszarze euro w 2001 r. przejà∏ bank centralny UGW - Europejski System Ban- szacowany jest na poziomie 2,8%. Te stosunkowo ko- ków Centralnych (ESBC), b´dàcy instytucjà ponadnaro- rzystne wyniki w dziedzinie koniunktury gospodarczej dowà. Obszar euro skupia te kraje UE, które sta∏y si´ sprzyja∏y z kolei redukcji stopy bezrobocia w krajach pe∏noprawnymi cz∏onkami UGW. Najpierw krajów cz∏onkowskich. W 1999 r. w odniesieniu do ca∏ego ob- tych by∏o 11, a od stycznia 2001 r. do∏àczy∏a do nich szaru kszta∏towa∏a si´ ona na poziomie 9,9%, w 2000 r. Grecja. Poza obszarem euro (okreÊlanym te˝ nieoficjal- 9,0%, w 2001 r. ma zaÊ wynieÊç 8,5%2. Wzrost stopy in- nie jako Euroland) pozostajà ciàgle Dania, Szwecja flacji w 2000 i 2001 r. uwarunkowany by∏ g∏ównie wzro- i Wielka Brytania. Sà to kraje cz∏onkowskie UGW, stem cen ropy naftowej oraz tendencjà spadkowà kursu w stosunku do których stosuje
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