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Fram Strait Ice Export During the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries Reconstructed from a Multiyear Sea Ice Index from Southwestern Greenland

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Fram Strait Ice Export During the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries Reconstructed from a Multiyear Sea Ice Index from Southwestern Greenland 2782 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 16 Fram Strait Ice Export during the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries Reconstructed from a Multiyear Sea Ice Index from Southwestern Greenland TORBEN SCHMITH AND CARSTEN HANSEN* Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark (Manuscript received 8 May 2002, in ®nal form 30 January 2003) ABSTRACT Historical observations of multiyear ice, called ``storis,'' in the southwest Greenland waters exist from the period 1820±2000, obtained from ship logbooks and ice charts. It is argued that this ice originates in the Arctic Ocean and has traveled via the Fram Strait, southward along the Greenland coast in the East Greenland Current, and around the southern tip of Greenland. Therefore, it is hypothesized that these observations can be used as ``proxies'' for reconstructing the Fram Strait ice export on an annual basis. An index describing the storis extent is extracted from the observations and a linear statistical model formulated relating this index to the Fram Strait ice export. The model is calibrated using ice export values from a hindcast study with a coupled ocean±ice model over the period 1949±98. Subsequently, the model is used to reconstruct the Fram Strait annual ice export in the period 1820±2000. The model has signi®cant skill, calculated on independent data. Based on this reconstruction, it is discussed how time periods with large and small ice export on multidecadal timescales coincide with time periods of cold and warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reported by others. This implies that trend studies based on satellite observations should be regarded with some care, since the time period of satellite observations, the last decades, where a particularly strong negative trend is observed in the ice export, is preceded by a time period with a positive trend. The occurrence of ``great salinity anomalies'' (GSAs) is also connected to the multidecadal variability. The GSAs observed in Greenland waters around 1968± 70 and 1980±82 both occurred when the general level of ice export was high. Prior to these there was a long period with generally low ice export and no GSAs, but during an epoch around the turn of the nineteenth century several GSAs occurred. Finally, it is found that the correlation between the Fram Strait ice export and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has alternating intervals of signi®cant and nonsigni®cant correlation throughout the period. 1. Introduction land Current (EGC) with minor contributions from gla- ciers and locally formed sea ice. In January or February Multiyear sea ice originating in the Arctic Ocean is the ice pack usually stretches all the way down to Cape being exported through the Fram Strait into the Green- Farewell. From Cape Farewell the EGC bends north- land Sea (a map with relevant names is shown in Fig. westward and continues in the West Greenland Current 1) and represents the largest drain in the freshwater (WGC) along the southwestern coast of Greenland. balance of the Arctic Ocean (Aagaard and Carmack Also, the polar ice, which here has an average thickness 1989). According to the most recent estimate (Vinje et of more than 3 m, (Buch 1991) is carried along the coast al. 1998), the ice volume ¯ux amounts to 2846 km3 yr21 in the WGC in a thin band (Wadhams 2000). The ice on average, but varying between 2046 and 4687 km3 of polar origin is on this coast known as ``storis'' and yr21 during the years 1990±96. The ice export rate varies has its maximum northern extent in midsummer. over the year in a characteristic pulsation with maximum From the Fram Strait to the southwestern coast of in winter (December±April) and minimum in August. Greenland the Arctic sea ice travels a distance of more The bulk of this exported ice is carried southward along the eastern coast of Greenland in the East Green- than 2000 km, giving an average velocity of 0.1±0.2 m s21 for a travel time of 6 months. This is agreement with oceanographic investigations of the EGC, where 21 * Current af®liation: Royal Danish Administration of Navigation velocities up to 0.5 m s are not unusual (see Bacon and Hydrography, Copenhagen, Denmark. et al. 2002, and references therein). Other types of ice are found in the southwest Green- land waters, namely, the ``westice,'' which is ®rst-year Corresponding author address: Dr. Torben Schmith, Danish Me- teorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen é, Den- ice formed in the Baf®n Bay and Davis Strait, and lo- mark. cally formed coastal ice. These ice types have their max- E-mail: [email protected] imum extent during winter and are therefore clearly dis- q 2003 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 03:11 PM UTC 15 AUGUST 2003 SCHMITH AND HANSEN 2783 following grounds: transport through the Smiths Sound was not possible since the ice ¯oes would then go along the coast of Baf®n and Labrador, and transport along the Siberian coast would take more than three years. Nansen's idea was that an appropriately built ship could also, starting in the East Siberian Sea, traverse the Arctic Ocean, thereby passing close to the North Pole, and exit via the Fram Strait. Since the storis observed on the southwestern coast during spring and summer originates in the Arctic Ocean via the EGC±WGC, we ®nd it meaningful to hypoth- esize that historical storis observations can be related to the Fram Strait ice export. It is the aim of the present work to investigate whether the Fram Strait ice export can actually be reconstructed from the historical storis FIG. 1. Map showing Greenland with surroundings; important names are given. observations. Such a reconstructed series of Fram Strait ice export will have a length of almost two centuries. Changes in the Arctic sea ice conditions have drawn tinguishable from the storis. For completeness, we note attention within recent years. Rothrock et al. (1999) that icebergs also occur here. For a general description described a thinning of the Arctic ice cover, based on of the oceanography of the Greenland coastal waters thickness measurements from submarine-borne instru- including ice conditions, see Nielsen (1928) and Buch ments over the period 1958±97. However, since most (1991). submarine data are from the Canadian Arctic, Holloway That material objects frequently travel the distance and Sou (2002) point to the danger of getting spurious from the Fram Strait, and even from the Siberian coasts, trends due to redistribution of ice masses by wind. Par- to the southwest coast of Greenland is manifested in the kinson et al. (1999) reported on generally decreasing abundant occurrence of Siberian driftwood on this coast. sea ice extents based on satellite passive microwave data Although almost no trees grow on these coasts, the lead- from the period 1978±97. Johannessen et al. (1999) ing ``Saqqaq'' culture had woodworking as one of its found a trend in the composition of the Arctic ice cover activities (Groennov 1996). The missionary Fabricius from satellite measurements toward a smaller fraction (1810) wrote, ``Usually it comes with the drift ice . of multiyear ice during the past 20 years. whole trees, roots and all . .'' In southwest Greenland The signi®cance of these ®ndings should be evaluated there is also a village named ``Nanortalik'' (meaning against the decadal and interdecadal variability of the ``polar bear village''), despite the natural habitat of polar Arctic Ocean circulation including its sea ice conditions bears being the Arctic Ocean. This is another illustration documented by Ikeda (1990), Mysak and Power (1992), of the ice drift: from time to time polar bears travel on Proshutinsky and Johnson (1997), Polyakov and John- ice ¯oes from the Arctic Ocean and make their landing son (2000), and others. Since variations in Arctic sea in southwest Greenland. ice conditions are re¯ected in the Fram Strait ice export Nansen (1897) tells the anecdote of how he got the (HaÈkkinen 1993; Hilmer et al. 1998; KoÈberle et al. 1999; idea for reaching the North Pole and this is an excellent Arfeuille et al. 2000), knowledge of the long-term var- illustration of the general movement of the ice masses iability of the Fram Strait ice export would contribute in the Arctic Ocean. Many attempts to reach the North to the assessment the signi®cance of such ®ndings. Pole by ship via the strait between Greenland and Spits- The freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean, in- bergen (later named Fram Strait) had been carried out cluding the Fram Strait ice export, is not merely a pas- in the 19th century but they were all stopped by a mas- sive indicator of the state of the Arctic climate system, sive ice pack. The American Jeanette expedition was but is also an active component. Increased export of the one of the few attempts to enter the Arctic Ocean via freshwater as occurred during the great salinity anomaly the Bering Strait. However, it was not successful: Jea- (GSA; Dickson et al. 1988) stabilizes the upper water nette sank in the East Siberian Sea, demolished by the column in the Greenland, Iceland, and Labrador Seas. ice masses. Three years later Nansen read a newspaper This leads to increased formation of sea ice and dimin- article by Professor Mohn, telling that identi®able re- ished production of intermediate and deep water masses mains from Jeanette, for example, handwritten docu- through ocean convection. Also, the model study by ments and clothes with names of crew, had been found HaÈkkinen (1999) shows that changes in the freshwater on the southwest coast of Greenland. Professor Mohn ¯uxes from the Arctic Ocean similar to the GSA could argued that these things could only have been trans- change the convection intensity and pattern and thereby ported on ice ¯oes across the Arctic Ocean in what later in¯uence the global thermohaline circulation (THC).
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