UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT
HARNESSING BLOCKCHAIN FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES
Layout and Printing at United Nations, Geneva – 2107616 (E) – June 2021 – 1,018 – UNCTAD/DTL/STICT/2021/3 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT
HARNESSING BLOCKCHAIN FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES
Geneva, 2021 © 2021, United Nations
This work is available through open access, by complying with the Creative Commons licence created for intergovernmental organizations, at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.
The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Mention of any firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.
Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits.
This publication has not been formally edited.
United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
UNCTAD/DTL/STICT/2021/3 and Corr.1
ISBN: 978-92-1-113020-1 eISBN: 978-92-1-403043-0 Sales No.: E.21.II.D.16 Acknowledgements iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was prepared by an UNCTAD team, comprised of Clovis Freire (team leader), Abiy Solomon, Maria Godunova, Weijing Ye and Ronak Shahsavar, with contributions from Solomon Anzagra, Thomas Van Giffen, Olivier Combe and Rasim Alam (Harvard Kennedy School). The authors worked under the supervision of Liping Zhang, Chief of the Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Section, and the guidance of Ángel González Sanz, Head of the Science, Technology and ICT Branch, and under the overall direction of Shamika N. Sirimanne, Director of the UNCTAD Division on Technology and Logistics.
UNCTAD appreciates valuable inputs provided by the Governments of Austria, Belgium, Cuba, Finland, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kenya, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as well as from United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia (ESCAP), United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Trade Centre (ITC), International Telecommunication Union (ITU), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).
The publication benefited significantly from discussions and inputs during the 2020–2021 Intersessional Panel of the United Nations Commission on Science and Technology for Development (18 to 22 January 2021).
Magali Studer designed the cover. Malou Pasinos provided administrative support. iv Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
NOTE
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) serves as the lead entity within the United Nations Secretariat for matters related to science and technology as part of its work on the integrated treatment of trade and development, investment and finance. The current UNCTAD work programme is based on the mandates set at quadrennial conferences, as well as on the decisions of the General Assembly of the United Nations and the United Nations Economic and Social Council that draw upon the recommendations of the United Nations Commission on Science and Technology for Development, which is served by the UNCTAD secretariat. The UNCTAD work programme is built on its three pillars of research analysis, consensus-building and technical cooperation, and is carried out through intergovernmental deliberations, research and analysis, technical assistance activities, seminars, workshops and conferences.
This series of publications seeks to contribute to exploring current issues in science, technology, and innovation, with particular emphasis on their impact on developing countries. Table of contents v
CONTENTS
I. Introduction...... 1
II. The blockchain technology...... 2
A. What is blockchain?...... 2
B. Applications, status and trends...... 5 1. Cryptocurrencies, tokens and online payments...... 5 2. Decentralized finance ...... 6 3. International trade...... 6 4. Value chains...... 8
III. Blockchain’s ecosystems of innovation...... 10
A. Types of innovation...... 10 1. Cryptographic innovations...... 10 2. Layer 1 software infrastructure...... 10 3. Layer 2 software infrastructure...... 11 4. Hardware ...... 11 5. Governance and business models...... 11 6. Innovations in regulations...... 11
B. Ecosystem of innovation...... 11
C. Financing blockchain innovation...... 14
IV. The potential impact of blockchain on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals ...... 15
A. Examples of blockchain applications that contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals...... 15
B. Forward-looking scenarios...... 19 1. Decentralized applications overtake centralized ones...... 19 2. Applications are developed for financial inclusion...... 20 3. Efficiency increases in international digital transactions...... 21 4. Cryptocurrency replaces fiat money...... 22 5. Blockchain becomes the “new Internet”...... 26
C. Potential unintended consequences...... 28 1. Environmental impact...... 28 2. Criminal activities...... 30 3. Inequality...... 31 4. Privacy...... 32 vi Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
V. Harnessing blockchain for sustainable development ...... 33
A. Building capacities for strengthening the national system for blockchain innovation...... 33 1. Low- and lower-middle-income developing countries...... 34 2. Upper-middle-income developing countries ...... 37 3. High-income countries...... 40 B. Creating the regulatory environment for support blockchain innovation while addressing potential risks...... 42 1. Privacy security and data protection...... 43 2. Financial regulations...... 44 3. Intellectual property regulations...... 44
VI. International collaboration...... 46
A. Sharing knowledge and information and conducting research...... 46
B. Helping to set guidelines, norms and standards ...... 46 C. Helping build the capacity of Governments to play its role in the blockchain ecosystem, including in terms of oversight capabilities ...... 47
D. Using blockchain in United Nations operations...... 48
Annex ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 50
Blockchain glossary...... 50
References...... 54 vii
LIST OF BOXES
Box 1 How blockchain works ...... 3
Box 2 Ethereum ...... 4
Box 3 ASYCUDA and blockchain...... 7
Box 4 Examples of applications of blockchain in supply chains...... 9
Box 5 Innovation in Ethereum...... 10
Box 6 Examples of the ecosystems of blockchain innovation...... 13
Box 7 Blockchain for climate change solutions...... 30
Box 8 National blockchain associations and laboratories...... 35
Box 9 Blockchain use cases in Uganda ...... 36
Box 10 Turkey: Blockchain-based Next Generation Decentralized Digital Identity Infrastructure ...... 37
Box 11 National strategies for blockchain development...... 38
Box 12 GovTech: Using blockchain to support the Sustainable Development Goals in Portugal...... 41
Box 13 Blockchain’s supportive business climate in Latvia...... 41
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 The evolution of blockchain...... 4 Figure 2 Market shares of cryptocurrencies, October 2020 ...... 5 Figure 3 Share of total funds locked in DeFi, by DeFi project ...... 6
Figure 4 Bitcoin: Money supply and inflation...... 23
Figure 5 Price volatility of bitcoin...... 24
Figure 6 Comparison between Bitcoin and other assets on the global market...... 25
Figure 7 Recurring phases in the blockchain innovation cycle...... 27 Figure 8 Consumption of energy by Bitcoin ...... 29
Figure 9 Share of coins and addresses by balance...... 31
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Examples of blockchain applications that contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals...... 16 Table 2 Rate of annual return of bitcoin...... 24 Table 3 Environmental impact of Bitcoin...... 29 Table 4 Mechanisms through which blockchain might support environmental sustainability...... 29
I. Introduction 1
I. INTRODUCTION
In an increasingly digitalized economy and society, speculative gains in cryptofinancial assets instead of the security and accountability of data transactions creating real value through new products and services. are critical elements for creating trust and enabling Such behaviour, combined with the lack of regulation breakthrough innovations in the digital world. In this and the swift pace of innovation, is a receipt for financial regard, blockchain technology could be a game-changer, bubbles and bursts. with the potential to revolutionize processes from finance to pharmaceutical industries, from government public At the same time, blockchain is potentially a key services to humanitarian work and development aid. technology in a new technological paradigm of increasing The blockchain serves as the base technology for automation and integrating physical and virtual worlds, cryptocurrency, enabling open (peer-to-peer), secure together with technologies such as artificial intelligence and fast transactions. The blockchain application has (AI), robots, and gene editing. In such a scenario of the expanded to include various financial transactions (e.g., very early stages of this new paradigm’s installation online payments and exchange platforms), Internet of period, it is still not clear the real long-impact of things (IoT), health systems and supply chains. these technologies on the economy, societies and environment. Similar moments in the past technological However, issues associated with scalability, privacy revolutions offered windows of opportunity for some concerns, uncertain regulatory standards and difficulties developing countries to catch up and others to forge posed by technology integration with existing applications ahead. Therefore, Governments of developing countries are some of the potential market constraints. There is should seek to strengthen their innovation systems to also the risk that the potential of blockchain for solving strategically position themselves to benefit from this developmental problems has been somewhat inflated new wave of technological change. by its early adopters and the technology media and may not be as applicable for developing and least The paper is structured as follows. Chapter II sets developed countries. the stage by briefly presenting blockchain technology. Chapter III discusses the ecosystem of innovation What are the emerging uses of blockchain that can related to blockchain technologies. It discusses the be breakthroughs in accelerating progress towards types of blockchain innovation, main actors, networks Sustainable Development Goals? What are the potential and interlinkages that they form to exchange knowledge, adverse unintended social and economic effects of this learn and innovate. Chapter IV discusses how blockchain technology? How could Governments maximize the could impact the Sustainable Development Goals, opportunities and minimize the risks? focusing on how possible scenarios could play out and their effect on sustainable development. Chapter The paper’s main messages are that blockchain V discusses the challenges that Governments face and technology can be used in many applications that could what they could do to influence the rate and direction contribute to sustainable development. However, at this of innovation and competence building in blockchain moment, blockchain innovation has focused on financial to contribute to their national development priorities applications dissociated from the real economy. For and accelerate the progress towards the Sustainable most of the innovations in this field, the Goal is to profit Development Goals. And chapter VI discusses areas by extracting rents through financial intermediation and for international collaboration. 2 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
II. THE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY
A. WHAT IS BLOCKCHAIN? permissions, which divides blockchains into two basic categories: public and private blockchains. A public Blockchain technology was invented to create Bitcoin. (or permissionless) blockchain is one where anyone Introduced to the world in 2008, in a White Paper titled can read all transactions taking place, and anyone can “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” participate in the network and help maintain the ledger. published under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin is implemented in a public blockchain. In a private whose true identity has never been revealed, bitcoin is (or permissioned) blockchain, both the information and defined as “a purely peer-to-peer version of electronic maintenance of the network are restricted to a selected group of known participants. Private ledger technology is cash [that] would allow online payments to be sent typically applied in enterprise use cases where immutable directly from one party to another without going through transactions are required and can be verified only by a a financial institution” (Nakamoto, 2008). The stated few nodes (United Nations/CEFACT, 2020). Goal of Bitcoin was to reduce transaction costs, fraud and payment uncertainties in digital transactions. It was proposed as an alternative to the prevalent model of While the Bitcoin network only records transactions e-commerce that relies on financial institutions serving of cryptocurrency, second-generation blockchains as trusted third parties to process electronic payments. (Blockchain 2.0) expand it by allowing the record of computer code in the ledger (figure 1). It is like creating a distributed hard drive that stores computer code that Therefore, the technical problem that blockchain can be executed in the nodes of the network. Thus, for technology was invented to solve was creating a ledger instance, instead of only registering that a payment has (register of payments) online without a central node that been made, the blockchain can store “smart contracts” has control over the information in the ledger. One of that are executed automatically when their conditions the Bitcoin protocol’s security concerns is the double- are met. The incorporation of smart contracts enables spending problem; a person spending the same Bitcoin business functions involving the transfer of information more than once. Blockchain solves that problem in a and value while leaving transparent and reliably auditable distributed ledger through an ingenious combination information trails (United Nations/CEFACT, 2020). of blocks of data, cryptography and an algorithm for network nodes to reach a consensus about the ledger’s Smart contracts were first implemented in a platform transactions, the proof-of-work (PoW) consensus called Ethereum, an open-source distributed computing distribution algorithm (see box 1). platform featuring smart contracts for decentralized applications (DApps). The idea of Ethereum was Being a digital asset without any intrinsic value and introduced in 2013 in a White Paper titled “A Next- central controller or issuer, Bitcoin is regarded as ground- Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application breaking in the evolution of fiat currencies (BIS, 2020). Platform” released by Vitalik Buterin, a then 19-year-old It laid the foundations of blockchain technology and Russian–Canadian programmer. Buterin proposed the enabled the development of other cryptocurrencies. development of a new platform “allowing anyone to write These other cryptocurrencies are implemented using smart contracts and decentralized applications where variations of blockchain, which can differ substantially they can create their own arbitrary rules for ownership, from the way that Satoshi Nakamoto initially proposed transaction formats and state transition functions” it. Thus, many prefer to use the more general term (Buterin, 2013) (see box 2 for more information regarding Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLT) when referring Ethereum). The blockchain is called Ethereum and Ether to other blockchain implementations. In this paper, both (ETH) is the cryptocurrency token generated by Ethereum terms are used interchangeably. A list of terms related to miners as a reward for computations performed to the blockchain is presented in the blockchain glossary secure the blockchain. In October 2020, Ethereum was in the annex to this publication. the second-largest cryptocurrency platform by market capitalization, behind Bitcoin.1 An example of the variations in the implementation of blockchain is related to the network’s management and 1 See https://www.blockchain.com. II. The blockchain technology 3
Box 1 How blockchain works When a node in a network makes or receives payments from another node, it sends the information about this transaction to all other nodes in the network. This information basically says that payment of value X was made from node A to node B at a specific time. That transaction is then registered in the distributed ledger by a third node, which is called a miner, who verifies the validity of the transaction by solving a very complex computational math problem. Transactions are registered in blocks, many transactions at a time. Given that these blocks of transactions can be created by different nodes in the network, a new block must somehow be connected to the previous blocks. In a blockchain, each new block is “chained” to the previous blocks using a cryptographic signature. This signature is easy to verify but extremely difficult to replicate. It is created using a cryptographic technique called hashing, which takes large amounts of data as input and creates a unique identifier known as the “hash value” or “digital fingerprint”. With hashing, it is impossible to recreate the data that generated the hash value. Nodes that generate new blocks are called miners because they are rewarded with newly created (mined) bitcoins for the trouble of generating a new block of transactions. Given that more than one miner in the network can create a new block using this technique, a consensus mechanism is used to select which potential new block is considered by all participants as the “agreed” new block of transactions in the blockchain. Bitcoin uses a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus distribution algorithm, in which each node that generates a new block must prove that it has worked in a cryptographic challenge. The challenge is to generate a hash value of the blockchain with a sequence of zeros of a certain length at the beginning (e.g., 19 zeros). This is not an easy task, and miners must try different ways of combining transactions in a block, adding strings of data to the block to try to create the hash with leading zeros. The difficulty of this challenge is set by the blockchain algorithm, based on the number of transactions and nodes, so that a new block is generated on average every 10 minutes regardless of the number of transactions, nodes, or computer power used for mining. If two nodes solve this challenge, the node that generated the longer blockchain is considered by all other nodes as the one that has created the new block in the blockchain. One of the threats to the blockchain is the Sybil or 51 per cent attack, which occurs when a malevolent actor controls a majority of the nodes, then it could decide to reach a consensus in contradiction of the interests of other participants of the network. Source: UNCTAD, based on Nakamoto (2008) and United Nations Innovation Network (2019).
The latest technological advances in blockchain are However, some technical limitations of Bitcoin and clustered around what could be called Blockchain Ethereum such as high transaction fees and limited 3.0, which focus on addressing the drawbacks of the scalability, prevent blockchain’s first two generations previous two generations of blockchain technology, from a general application within Industry 4.0. Blockchain such as scalability and interoperability between 3.0 is comprised of blockchain innovations to enable different blockchains (Ackermann and Meier, 2018). fast, large-scale applications. For example, one of the For example, blockchain can potentially support most innovations is the proof-of-stake (PoS) protocol, the of the applications of Industry 4.0 including supply chain consensus distribution algorithm in which the eligibility and trade across manufacturing, food, pharmaceutical, of creating a new block is determined by the amount health and creative industries through integrating varied a node has invested in the network. This innovation systems, managing commercial transactions and reduces the time required for the creation of a new fostering the assets’ traceability (Bodkhe et al., 2020). block, increasing the performance of the applications. 4 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
Figure 1 The evolution of blockchain
More Functionality
Smart Contracts Larger-scale of applications of non cryptocurrency-related More nancial functionality than Distributed Ledger Technology simply being a cryptocurrency (DLT) transactions processor Improved performance with more Cryptocurrency Decentralized applications scalability and interoperability (DApps) based on programmable The foundation of blockchain language technologies Proof-of-stake (PoS) protocol
Cryptocurrency blockchains Autonomously executing algorithms Peer-to-peer decentralised . cryptocurrency transactions Proof-of-work (PoW) protocol Proof-of-work (PoW) protocol . .
Source: UNCTAD.
Box 2 Ethereum Ethereum can be considered as a distributed computer, the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). The Ethereum protocol keeps the EVM running (Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), 2020). The EVM begins with an initial state and continuously execute transactions to morph it into the current state. It is this current state that is accepted as the canonical “version” of the world of Ethereum, and at any given block in the chain, Ethereum has only one ‘canonical’ state. The state can include any information that can be represented by a computer such as account balances and trust arrangements (Wood, 2020). Each transaction on Ethereum requires computational resources to execute; thus, each transaction requires a fee. The term “Gas” refers to the unit that measures the amount of computational effort required to execute specific transactions on the Ethereum network successfully. Gas fees are paid in Ether, and its prices are denoted in Gwei, which itself is a denomination of Ether: each Gwei is equal to 0.000000001 ETH. The price of the gas is determined by the demand for resources on the network; the amount of gas depends on the computational efforts needed and the time to execute a transaction. Miners can decline to process a transaction if the gas price does not meet their threshold. Requiring a fee for every transaction executed on the network helps prevent actors from spamming the network. The reason for introducing gas as a distinct value or separate unit than Ether is to maintain a distinction between the actual valuation of the cryptocurrency and the computational expenses on the Ethereum network (Ethereum: Gas and fees, 2020). In 2016, US$50 million in Ether was stolen by an anonymous hacker. To return the amount stolen to their rightful owners, the Ethereum platform was divided (forked) into two versions: the new version became Ethereum (ETH), and the original chain, Ethereum Classic (ETC) (Waters, 2016). The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is the organization dedicated to supporting Ethereum and related technologies. It is a non-profit organization based in Switzerland with the mission to contribute to Ethereum’s long-term success by promoting and supporting Ethereum-related technologies’ research, development, and community. Ethereum Foundation’s reported role is not to control Ethereum, but to allocate resources, both financial and non-financial, to critical projects, to be a valued voice within the Ethereum ecosystem and to advocate for Ethereum to the outside world (Ethereum Foundation, 2020). Source: UNCTAD. II. The blockchain technology 5
B. APPLICATIONS, STATUS AND TRENDS systems with fast, cheap and secure transactions and without intermediaries. There are many projects According to some estimates, the market for blockchain in this space, such as Bitcoin, Litecoin, EOS, NEO, solutions and applications was around US$708 million Ripple, Dash, and more recently, Facebook’s Libra. in 2017, and it is expected to reach over US$60 billion In addition to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and in 2024 (MarketWatch, 2019). Blockchain can be used Monero, they also include protocol tokens (e.g. Ether), in virtually any application. Currently, the prominent utility tokens, securities tokens (e.g. cryptoequities, use cases for blockchain applications are in the areas cryptobonds), natural asset tokens, cryptofiat currencies of online payments, finance, international trade, and and stablecoins (for a discussion on the advantages and global value chains. In the demand side, the growth of disadvantages of cryptocurrencies as opposed to other blockchain market is mainly driven by factors such as forms of currency, traditional or digital, see chapter IV). increasing online transactions, digitization of currency, secure online payment gateways, the growing interest In October 2020, there were about 1,000 cryptocur- of the banking, financial services and insurance sector, rencies in the market. This number was lower than in and an increasing number of merchants accepting 2018 when there were more than 1,500. Many still cryptocurrencies (Grand View Research, 2019). have a negligible market capitalization (figure 2). Only 17 have a market capitalization of more than US$1 bil- 1. Cryptocurrencies, tokens and online lion and 46 have a market capitalization higher than payments US$100 million. The total capitalization of the 100 most valued cryptocurrencies is about US$330 bil- The first and probably the best-known application lion, in which Bitcoin accounts for US$200 billion of blockchain technology is to build online payment (CoinMarketCap, 2020).
Figure 2 Market shares of cryptocurrencies, October 2020 (Percentage)
Monero, 1 EOS, 1 Other, 13 Cardano, 1 Litecoin, 1 Bitcoin SV, 1 Polkadot, 1 Binance Coin, 1 Bircoin Cash, 1
XRP, 4 Bitcoin, 63
Ethereum, 12
Source: UNCTAD, based on coinmarketcap.com. Note: “Other” represents more than 1,000 other cryptocurrencies exchanged in October 2020. 6 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
In terms of transactions, in October 2020, the number of Figure 3 Bitcoin transactions per day was about 300 thousand,2 Share of total funds locked in DeFi, by DeFi project while, for comparison, the credit card company Visa (Percentage) handles more than 65,000 transactions per second, which is more than 5.6 trillion transactions per day (Visa, alancer 2018). In 2018 there were 460 million Bitcoins wallets in ther total with only 25 million wallets holding bitcoins,3 while there were 3.3 billion Visa cards worldwide in the same period (Visa, 2018). ni a 2. Decentralized finance ntheti Decentralized finance (DeFi) is currently the area with a great amount of innovation. DeFi refers to blockchain- und based financial instruments run by smart contracts – which automatically execute transactions if certain conditions are met - that expand the use of blockchain ur e inance a er from simple value transfer to more complex financial use cases without any intermediaries. For instance, if a user wants her money to be sent to another user a e next Tuesday, but only if the US$/EUR exchange rate Wra ed irc in is higher than 0,85 according to xe.com, such if-else or if-then instructions can be embedded in smart contracts. Applications use smart contracts in platforms such as Source: UNCTAD, based on data retrieved from defipulse.com Ethereum to create currency exchanges, yield farms, microcredit applications, insurance, etc. in continuous and steady growth; the current value is about US$11.06 billion, and the top 10 DeFi projects In November 2020, there were 251 DeFi projects listed represent 94 per cent of the total (figure 3).6 in DeFiprime.com, a media outlet and analytical services provider for the DeFi community. Among them, 203 3. International trade were built on Ethereum blockchain, 26 on Bitcoin and the remaining 22 built on EOS – another blockchain- Blockchain technology could improve nearly all aspects of based decentralized platform for the development international trade. Smart contracts allow for automatic, of DeFi applications.4 The market capitalization of speedy, and timely issuance of customs invoices, permits, the top 100 DeFi tokens was about US$12.7 billion, licences and certificates triggered after payments of fees wherein the market value of the top 10 DeFi tokens was and duties. This could cut down the back-office duties US$9.1 billion, accounting for 71 per cent of the total.5 required to ensure reconciliation of duty payments by traders, reduce consignment clearance time and Another relevant measure of market prospects for DeFi is improve government revenues by reducing the potential the amount of “locked” funds in DeFi, which are the funds for corruption. that users have trusted to send to the smart contracts that sustain the DeFi ecosystem. (ConsenSys Codefi, There are fewer blockchain applications in this area 2020). An increasing amount of locked funds in DeFi as compared with online payments and decentralized over time represents growing confidence among users finance, and many are in the stage of proof-of-concept. to place their money into smart contracts to interact They involve complex procedures such as customs with these new financial tools. Available data indicate clearance, as well as several operations, types of that the total value of funds locked in DeFi projects is documents and many stakeholders such as customs, partner governmental agencies (PGAs), customs brokers, 2 See https://www.blockchain.com. carriers, banks, insurance companies (see box 3 for 3 See https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/bitcoin-addresses. further information on the context of the UNCTAD 4 See https://defiprime.com/ethereum (accessed on 4 Novem- ber 2020). Automated System for Customs Data – ASYCUDA). 5 See https://coinmarketcap.com/defi/ (accessed on 16 Octo- ber 2020). 6 See https://defipulse.com (accessed on 16 October 2020). II. The blockchain technology 7
Box 3 ASYCUDA and blockchain International trade more and more considers blockchain to ensure secure, trustworthy services and information exchange without costly intermediation. Customs clearance and single window systems that connect several trade stakeholders (ministries, cross-border regulatory agencies, government agencies) and exchange information with other systems (e.g. customs clearance systems for regional transit monitoring) would benefit from blockchain and the ASYCUDA programme has started to work on several practical applications.
Within the context of process automation and procedure streamlining, a blockchain acts as a process coordinator improving efficiency. With the implementation of smart contracts, secure transactions can be executed automatically in the blockchain. In a complex procedure such as customs clearance that involves several operations, types of documents, many stakeholders such as customs, partner governmental agencies (PGAs), customs brokers, carriers, banks and insurance companies, reducing unnecessary human action through smart contracts would allow faster execution and automatic compliance with rules and laws; leading to more automation, fewer corruption thanks to less human interaction (Sustainable Development Goal 16), and further implementation of paperless processes (Sustainable Development Goal 15).
In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these benefits can contribute to the risk mitigation efforts and measures. The payment of taxes is a great example of how blockchain and smart contracts can help; the same approach can be used for the release of guarantee after a transit procedure is completed or for the transfer of the ownership of goods in a warehouse. Not only the payment of taxes could be more secure (data cannot be corrupted) and instantaneous, but it could also be automatically executed once a declaration is registered in the system without any further human action required. Blockchain may also improve risk management, ensuring the integrity of permits, licenses and certificates and, consequently, of the value of the goods. Verification of goods could be shortened, and more efficient (Sustainable Development Goal 6) and the accurate and timely collection of taxes and duties achieved (Sustainable Development Goal 1). Combining the blockchain with another technology like IoT could be of particular interest when it comes to risk management. For instance, it can shorten the time of examination of a container thanks to the tracking of movements, temperature and opening of doors. For food, this combination guarantees security and safety, directly contributing to Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 3.
Developing countries, where efficiency and trust are low, can benefit the most from blockchains. However, the technical infrastructure needs to be assessed and the system requirements specified for a technical upgrade where appropriate, which can be pricey, especially for economies with limited financial resources such as LDCs. In that context, many member States will seek financing from donors, making donor coordination a key aspect to success. The capacity-building component will be more important and complex in the context of a technical assistance project. Indeed, UNCTAD and ASYCUDA aim at ensuring system and data ownership by the country, which can only be reached through intensive training. By limiting or removing intermediation, blockchain will directly contribute to reducing trade costs. Nevertheless, developing countries’ exports rely heavily on intermediation to access foreign markets, which poses the question of the future role of intermediaries.
Source: UNCTAD.
Numerous companies and Governments are already already started testing DLT to speed up efficiency in their forming consortia and alliances to deploy the blockchain work.9 Tradelens,10 the IBM and Maersk-led consortium technology in various areas of international trade. of leading firms in the shipping and maritime industry, Several companies are also experimenting with the already leverages the technology in some areas of its technology with their in-house technical teams. For ecosystem and has successfully trialled an electronic instance, in 2018, the first blockchain-based Smart Bill of Lading on the platform(e-BL).11 These efforts Bill of Lading was issued by CargoX for goods that are fast ramping up with more shipping and maritime departed from Shanghai to the Port of Koper, Slovenia,7 industry leaders taking the initiative to bring together at a little fraction of the usual cost of sending paper competitors to collaborate for increasing efficiency. documents through courier services across the globe. The Global Shipping Business Network (GSBN)8 has 9 See https://smartmaritimenetwork.com/2019/07/16/global- 7 See https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/first-ever- shipping-business-network-agreements-signed/. blockchain-based-cargox-smart-b-l-successfully-completed- 10 See https://www.tradelens.com/. its-historic-mission/. 11 See https://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/277649/cma- 8 See https://www.cargosmart.ai/en/solutions/global-shipping- cgm-msc-to-become-members-of-tradelens-blockchain-plat- business-network/. form/. 8 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
4. Value chains project on Ethereum to facilitate the onboarding process for Coca-Cola bottling suppliers. By August 2020, 12 of As value chains grow more intricate, involving the largest North American Coca-Cola bottlers were diverse stakeholders and relying on several external using the blockchain platform for internal supply chain intermediaries, blockchain can be used to improve the management and the nodes are expected to expand transparency, traceability and reliability throughout the to external suppliers (Haig, 2020). value chains by reducing information asymmetries, tracking inventories and ownership rights of products, Outside the food industry, a blockchain-enabled platform enabling faster and more cost-efficient delivery of goods, developed by Everledger, a technology company, and enhancing coordination between stakeholders (Gaur recorded the provenance of over 2 million diamonds and Gaiha, 2020; Allen et al., 2018). along the supply chain. With a unique digital identity for every diamond, the platform can track and confirm While blockchain-driven value chain use cases are the source and location of each diamond, preventing still emerging, several successful proof-of-concept possible fraud and counterfeit.12 implementations suggest that blockchain will likely lead to disruptive transformations, ranging from cost-savings Another promising area for blockchain solutions and increased efficiencies to new operational models is provenance within the pharmaceutical industry. (see box 4 for examples). Tracking goods through the Counterfeit pharmaceuticals pose serious risks for production and delivery process to ensure quality and customers and society. According to the World Health authenticity or automated compliance to freight and Organization, an estimated 10–30 per cent of medicines trade regulations exemplify just two promising blockchain sold in developing economies are counterfeits and applications in value chains. every year more than 120,000 people die in Africa as a result of fake anti-malarial drugs (WHO, 2017). For instance, in response to food contamination Countries like Saudi Arabia are committed to exploring scandals worldwide, Walmart has teamed up with the role of blockchain technology in the sustainability IBM in tackling food safety in the supply chain using and effectiveness of the pharmaceutical supply chain, blockchain technology. Using the IBM Hyperledger addressing problems such as medication shortage, lack Fabric, a blockchain-based platform, Walmart has of coordination among health-care stakeholders, product successfully completed two blockchain pilots: pork in wastage and lack of medication demand information.13 China and mangoes in the Americas. With a farm-to-table approach, Walmart’s blockchain solution has reduced In summary, blockchain potentially reduces time for tracking mango origins from seven days to 2.2 transactional complexity, information asymmetry and seconds and promoted greater transparency across contractual incompleteness, value chain risks decrease Walmart’s food supply chain (Kamath, 2018). Other large due to traceability, transparency, and openness of companies are also exploring blockchain use cases. transactions and agreement records (Schmidt and For example, Coke One North America has started a Wagner, 2019).
12 See https://www.everledger.io/our-technologies/blockchain- and-more/. 13 Contribution from the Government of Saudi Arabia available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/ CSTD_ 2020-21_c27_B_Saudi%20Arabia_en.pdf. II. The blockchain technology 9
Box 4 Examples of applications of blockchain in supply chains FAO is supporting innovations in the supply chain through cooperation with other stakeholders which focus on agriculture and livestock, fisheries, forestry, conservation and rural development. In collaboration with ITU, national partners and technical service providers, FAO conducted a pilot project on pigs (livestock) using blockchain to create a database for traceability in Jiwaka, Papua New Guinea. Pig farmers were registered, and their pigs were ear-tagged with radio frequency identification (FRID) enabled tags linked to a traceability database. Farmers participate by inputting data (breed type, feed type, geography, incidences of pig disease and remedy) into the system until the pigs are ready for sale. Potential buyers can visit the pig selling points with an application and scan the ear-tags to access and view the history before making decisions. The integration of the blockchain technology in traceability enhances the sustainability of the livestock traceability system and the development and maintenance of similar block-chain-derived products and services in future.14
The charcoal project in Côte d’Ivoire is another promising FAO pilot project. Charcoal remains one of the most important sources of fuel in sub-Saharan Africa, including Côte d’Ivoire. A look through the supply chain highlights the interlinkages with issues of energy, deforestation, employment and other socioeconomic and environmental challenges. The Alpha version of the legal and sustainable charcoal traceability blockchain application was already developed and tested. One of the key findings is that blockchain has the potential to help build traceability systems that are more transparent, efficient and reliable.15
The need for innovative recycling solutions that promote environmental sustainability has never been greater. In Austria, the project Plastic Supply Chain – an innovative approach to offset plastic – aims to investigate the impact of technological and supply chain innovations in the process of plastic bottle supply chains by the shift from a linear to a circular supply chain. The project investigates how a circular supply chain may reduce plastic bottle waste across the relevant processes, i.e. source, transport, storage, make, deliver, revalorization and return. In this project, blockchain technology enables plastic flow visibility and supply chain data quality as well as data security. This innovative approach allows evaluating the impact of the implementation of incentives to obtain higher collection rates, consequently higher recycling rates and increased visibility of the plastic work in process.16
Blockchain also can be deployed in support of the humanitarian supply chain. Humanitarian agencies have to manage complex supply chains over huge distances under highly demanding circumstances. In 2020, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) of the United Kingdom in close coordination with the German company Datarella and other FCDO stakeholders launched a pilot looked to test whether the use of a private blockchain platform could provide immutable proof of supplies passing between actors in the humanitarian supply. The pilot ended with a robust proof of technology that had tracked a live shipment of goods in a controlled environment. The platform was under continuous development to enable scale as well as insight into the “last mile” of humanitarian supply chains using satellite-connected mesh networks to overcome connectivity problems in last-mile humanitarian aid delivery. 17
Source: UNCTAD, based on contributions from the Governments of Austria and the United Kingdom, and from FAO, available at https://unctad.org/meeting/commission-science-and-technology-development-twenty-fourth-session.
14 Contribution from FAO available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_c11_B_FAO_en.pdf. 15 Ibid. 16 Contribution from the Government of Austria available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020- 21_c01_HB_Austria_en.pdf. 17 Contribution from the Government of the United Kingdom available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/ CSTD_2020-21_c34_B_UK_en.pdf. 10 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
III. BLOCKCHAIN’S ECOSYSTEMS OF INNOVATION
Innovation in the blockchain technology is the process 2. Layer 1 software infrastructure of bringing blockchain-based products and services to the market. As discussed in the previous chapters, Another kind of innovation is related to creating a basic blockchain is associated with a broad range of software infrastructure (layer 1) on top of which blockchain innovations, from specific products such as Bitcoin application can be developed. Layer 1 infrastructure to platforms for the development of decentralized broadens the pool of developers by reducing the required applications such as Ethereum. The ecosystem of crypto skills to program in that layer, and also reduces innovation related to blockchain technologies sets the the risk of faulty crypto implementations. Platforms rate and direction of innovation and competence building such as Ethereum and Flow provide a development on the blockchain technology. The central elements in environment of upper-layer applications that benefit the ecosystems of innovation are the main actors in the from what is considered a reliable cryptoalgorithm and innovation process, their interlinkages through which protocol infrastructure (see box 5 for a discussion on the knowledge and resources flow to enable innovation, and the institutions in place that set the rules, regulations Box 5 and expected behaviour associated with blockchain Innovation in Ethereum innovation. Since Ethereum was launched, its development and research have been in continuous progress. By October 2020, Ethereum was developing and planning to implement A. TYPES OF INNOVATION a series of upgrades clustered by the term Ethereum 2.0 (Eth2) improving the scalability and security of Ethereum protocol. A central element in this process is the splitting There are different kinds of innovation related to of the Ethereum network into smaller portions called shard blockchain. Each one of them involves different actors chains. The Eth2, also known as Serenity, is designed to be and interlinkages in the innovation ecosystem. In a launched in three phases: first approximation, these innovations can be divided Phase 0: The so-called beacon chain will be a new blockchain into cryptographic innovations, software infrastructure at the core of Ethereum that will provide consensus to all the (layer 1) and application (layer 2), hardware infrastructure, shard chains. On every shard chain, miners will create blocks of transactions and report them to the beacon chain. This governance and business models (meta-layer), and information will then become available to all the other shards regulations. – maintaining consensus across the whole network. At this stage, the consensus mechanism will transition from proof- of-work to proof-of-stake. Ethereum initial use the proof-of- 1. Cryptographic innovations work protocol relies on miners to keep the network secure by devoting a great amount of computing power to creating new blocks. Instead, the proof-of-stake mechanism keeps At the most basic level, there are innovations related to the network secure but replaces energy consumption with the cryptographic elements of blockchain, including the a financial commitment. The beacon chain is expected to algorithm, blockchain, mathematical models, etc. These be created in 2020; it was still under the testing phase in September 2020. innovations seek to address issues such as increasing security of the solutions, setting different levels of privacy Phase 1: The shard chains will be created to take on a portion and confidentiality, or address performance issues. Many of the processing workload (transactions and account data) of Ethereum. Currently, all nodes in the Ethereum network of these innovations are buried behind obscure and must download, compute, store and read every transaction in complex concepts and are only comprehensible to a the history of Ethereum before processing a new one, which constraints significantly the speed of executing transactions small set of developers with the required cryptographic (15 transactions per second), which is 100 times slower than skills and expertise. These innovations, many times, Visa’s processing speed, around 1,500 transactions per second. have the objective to address flaws that were discovered These updates are expected to be implemented in 2021. in previous implementations. The look and feel of the Phase 2: fully formed shards should be fully functional chains, solution, the way that users interact with it, and the compatible with smart contracts, and they will be able to use case may not change with this kind of innovation. communicate with each other more freely. Developers may be able to design shards in their own ways. This phase is in the They can be classified within process innovations. Other research phase and, according to the plan, it will take place times, these innovations in the cryptographic aspects from 2021 onwards. of solutions open new possibilities to address new use Source: UNCTAD, based on Ethereum 2.0 (Eth2) (2020). cases, generating product innovations. III. Blockchain’s ecosystems of innovation 11
innovation in Ethereum). Moreover, these platforms also to propose and vote on the changes that would be provide ways for the implementation of interoperability implemented in the solution. A related innovation is between application in the platform, which tremendously the DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization), increases the value of using the infrastructure. Many which creates the possibility of a completely market- innovations in layer 1 infrastructure are related to the based organization, which has no employers and performance of the protocol. employees whatsoever, but that relies on a decentralized governance mechanism to function as an organization. 3. Layer 2 software infrastructure 6. Innovations in regulations Perhaps the most visible face of the innovation ecosystem is the set of innovations related to the decentralized The current time is the installation period of blockchain applications (layer 2). These can run on top of layer 1 technology, and its innovations are in constant flux. infrastructure such as Ethereum or be implemented This is a period in which there are more ideas and early from scratch. Many of these innovations tend to focus implementations than the number of relevant use cases. on use cases that are a decentralized version of an However, due to the novelty around the technology and its existing centralized application or system – for example, applications, one only finds out if the use case is indeed decentralized currency exchange or trading platform. relevant or not after some resources are committed in the There are numerous use cases that have been mainly initial implementation. Mistakes are made and, hopefully, based on the premise that decentralization is indisputably corrective actions are taken. Therefore, in addition to better than centralization, without any further regard technological corrections, many adjustments are needed about the real value added in creating a decentralized in terms of institutions and regulations. This is another version of an existing and, many times very successful, area of innovation (social innovation) that was brought solution. Many of these decentralized applications have about by technology. These innovations tend to trail the a look and feel of existing centralized applications. technological development and the innovators in this area are also learning what works or not. 4. Hardware B. ECOSYSTEM OF INNOVATION Innovations layer 1 and 2 have also driven innovations in the hardware infrastructure to support these According to the UNCTAD Technology and Innovation applications. For example, the innovation in computers Report 2021, China and the United States of America for mining cryptocurrencies – from the use of graphic lead blockchain research. During the period of cards to the development of specialized computers, 1996–2018, there were 3,390 publications related to there is a considerable level of innovation in the blockchain led by the United States (670), China (622) hardware area of blockchain to strike an economically and the United Kingdom (239). The top three affiliations optimum balance between increasing computer power were Chinese Academy of Sciences (61/China), for boosting the rate of cryptographic operations leading Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications to successful mining and higher profits, while trying to (43/China) and Beihang University (31/China). During reduce costs through reducing power consumption, the same period, there were 2,975 patents, with the maintenance, and replacement costs. With the top three assignees’ nationality being the United States increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies, one should (1,277), Antigua and Barbuda (300) and China (270). also expect innovations related to gadgets such as The current top owners were nChain (336/United smartphones and smartwatches as well as specific Kingdom), Mastercard (181/United States) and IBM hardware for safely storing these cryptocurrencies. (134/United States). 5. Governance and business models Companies from the United States are the leading blockchain service providers. Top providers of blockchain Another area of innovation in blockchain is related to (blockchain-as-a-service providers)18 service include the governance mechanisms and business models of blockchain solutions. Not only the use of the application 18 Blockchain-as-a-Service (BaaS) is when an external service can become decentralized with blockchain, but also provider sets up all the necessary blockchain technology and the gains from the use of the solution, its development infrastructure for a customer for a fee. By paying for BaaS, and even the governance of its development. One a client pays the BaaS provider to set up and maintain blockchain connected nodes on their behalf. A BaaS pro- innovation that has emerged in this front is the concept vider handles the complex back-end for the client and their of governance tokens that give their holders the ability business. 12 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
Alibaba (China), Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, Oracle and These are well-funded foundations that are to see to SAP (Germany) (Akilo, 2018; Patrizio, 2018; Anwar, the success of their respective open-source software 2019). Top users of blockchain measured by spending ecosystems or support other charity works. on blockchain service were finance, manufacturing and retail sectors (IDC, 2019). Multinational companies operating in traditional sectors have also entered the space with different Despite the lead of the United States and China, the initiatives, such as Nestlé (track and trace) and blockchain ecosystem of innovation is more global than BMW and Maersk (value chain management). By the for other frontier technologies such as AI. Innovations in nature of blockchain solutions, related to their global blockchain have drawn on programmers from developed operations, these companies also contributed to and developing countries, currency exchanges in several making the innovation and deployment of blockchain markets, mining distributed across the world – in places applications more global. with cheap energy resources – and on a user base of retail traders and financial institutions from all over the New NGOs and research institutes specializing in world. The fact that innovation in blockchain has been blockchain technology are being established; an directed mainly to financial and payment solutions, and example is the Blockchain Research Institute,20 an that the financial sector is very global in nature, further independent, global think tank funded by international contributes to the globalization of the ecosystem of corporations and government agencies. This could innovation. become a leading trend in the integration of the technology in NGO works and bring efficiency in the From Governments to enterprises, from research non-profit sector. The Porino Foundation, a non- institutions to start-ups, the blockchain innovation profit based in Switzerland, for instance, through their ecosystem is constantly growing with stakeholders taking Sustainability Chain Project21 deploys blockchain-based initiatives to foster blockchain’s innovation. Most initiatives applications for organizations working to advance the actively involve multiple actors from public research, Sustainable Development Goals. industry and Government, have mixed public–private funding models and seek international cooperation on In academia, an increasing number of universities have the blockchain. box 6 showcases some of the initiatives, designed courses specifically for the study of blockchain both from the public and private sector, extracted by technology. Examples are the University of Nicosia, the contributions received from the Governments of Oxford University, MIT and Cambridge University. In the member States. these courses, various aspects of the technology, ranging from programming to cryptoeconomics and Many of the blockchain initiatives are based on open- blockchain strategy, are taught to industry experts source, free and readily available software for the global and corporate leaders. Several blockchain companies common good with not-for-profit principles at its core. are also collaborating with academic institutions on Many of them are funded by not-for-profit foundations, research and development, as well as product design. many of which are registered in Switzerland. Examples It is expected that at full maturity of the technology, a are the Bitcoin Foundation, Ethereum Foundation, whole new ecosystem will emerge with academics, the Libra Foundation (founded by Facebook) and the advisors, programmers, financial analysts and Blockchain Charity Foundation (founded by Binance). 19 cryptoeconomists at its core.
19 The Blockchain Charity Foundation—through its Block- chain Impact Fund—for instance has partnered with UNDP for social good in developing countries, initially donating US$1 million in 2018. See https://blokt.com/news/binances- blockchain-charity-foundation-partners-with-united-nations- 20 See https://www.blockchainresearchinstitute.org/. development-program-to-use-blockchain-for-social-good. 21 See https://sustainability-chain.com/. III. Blockchain’s ecosystems of innovation 13
Box 6 Examples of the ecosystems of blockchain innovation Austria: The Government of Austria encourages interdisciplinarity in blockchain research and development. The Austrian Federal Ministry of Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology and the Federal Ministry of Digital and Economic Affairs jointly funded the Austrian Blockchain Center, an interdisciplinary research excellence centre with the mission to be the one-stop-shop Austrian Research Centre for Blockchain (and related) technologies to be applied in industrial applications such as Industry 4.0/IoT as well as financial, energy, logistics, Government and administrative applications. The interdisciplinary Research Institute for Cryptoeconomics at the Vienna University of Economics and Business was founded in January 2018 and is member of the Austrian Blockchain Center. This research institute aims to coordinate all blockchain and Web3 related research activities in a multifaceted and interdisciplinary way and to build a competence centre that connects researchers with practitioners.22 Belgium: Blockchain Innovation Center, inaugurated by Fujitsu in 2018 in Belgium, is created under the mission to revolutionize the way consumers and enterprises buy, sell and exchange goods and services and for organizations to transform their commercial and operational models. One area of expertise that the institution plans to develop is the use of blockchain for the design and implementation of Smart City services focusing on important aspects of the city of the future, such as sociological and demographic factors, societal organization, economic functioning and ecological challenges.23 Finland: The blockchain ecosystem of Finland is booming. On 25 May 2018, Helsinki hosted the Blockchain and Bitcoin Conference – the first conference in Finland that is a part of the international series Blockchain and Bitcoin Conference. The event was dedicated to the cryptocurrency trading and investments, the introduction of distributed ledger technology in business, the development of blockchain-based solutions, as well as the global issues of the technology’s influence over society.24 Helsinki also has a Bitcoin Embassy, a non-commercial organization and a platform for Bitcoin initiatives aimed at promoting cryptocurrency among citizens. On a monthly basis, it organizes meetings for cryptocommunity participants, including top Bitcoin holders and entrepreneurs.25 Portugal: An initiative in Portugal named Bee2WasteCrypto, involved multiple actors in making joint efforts to blockchain innovation and research for the management of waste. Bee2WasteCrypto is a project involving a company (Compta), two higher-education schools (Instituto Superior Técnico, NOVA Information Management School), and some of these schools’ research centres. Over the summer of 2020, 12 master and undergraduate students developed new blockchain-based solutions for Regional Waste Management Utilities (RWMU) and behavioural change on the management of waste.26 Russian Federation: The ecosystem of blockchain projects of the Russian Federation is formed by three main groups of players: first, large State institutions of innovative development, such as the Russian Venture Company and its subsidiaries, especially those involved in the National Technological Initiative; second, the Skolkovo Foundation, a scientific and technological centre for the development and commercialization of advanced technologies in the Russian Federation; and, third, major banks including Sberbank, VEB.RF, Alfa-Bank and VTB and corporations such as Rostekh, Gazprom, Rosseti and Russian Railways.27 Turkey: The blockchain innovation environment in Turkey is also very dynamic and collaborative. A platform called Blockchain Turkey was founded in June 2018 by Turkey Informatics Foundation (TBV) and had reached 71 members from more than 10 different industrial sectors as of September 2020. The platform is operating to increase the national potential and public awareness of blockchain technology, to use its valuable benefits and to determine strategic priorities for the ecosystem by providing training, organizing events, producing and publishing relevant content, evaluating the current opportunities and application of blockchain technology.28
Source: UNCTAD, based on contributions from the Governments of Austria, Belgium, Portugal, the Russian Federation and Turkey, available at https://unctad.org/meeting/commission-science-and-technology-development-twenty-fourth-session.
22 Contribution from the Government of Austria available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_ c01_HB_Austria_en.pdf. 23 Contribution from the Government of Belgium and from: https://www.fujitsu.com/be/microsite/nblockchain/blockchain-innovation- center/ 24 https://finland.bc.events/ 25 https://finland.bc.events/article/digital-modernization-how-finland-builds-blockchain-ecosystem-87686 26 Contribution from the Government of Portugal available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_ c23_B_Portugal_en.pdf. 27 Contribution from the Government of the Russian Federation available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/ CSTD_2020-21_c25_B_Russia_en.pdf. 28 Contribution from the Government of Turkey available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_ c33_B_Turkey_en.pdf. 14 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
C. FINANCING BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION an incentive for potential users to acquire the tokens. Usually, a share of the tokens was distributed to the A particularity in the blockchain ecosystem is the strong development team and initial investors. Some ICOs use of crowdfunding to finance innovations. As defined were able to raise an enormous amount of funds. The by Schumpeter (1939), “capitalism is that form of private increased valuation of the tokens of the most sought- property economy in which innovations are carried after solutions made some of the original development out by means of borrowed money.” In the case of the team and venture capitalist very wealthy. After the bust blockchain ecosystem, innovators are borrowing money of 2017, ICOs were scrutinized by regulators in the from the users of the innovation. Initial Coin Offering United States. Some of the ICOs were considered to (ICOs), as seen mainly in the 2017 bitcoin boom, and breach securities regulations, and their development other innovative forms of distributed finance allow for teams had to pay high fees. fast ways to raise money for blockchain innovation (and for developing bubbles), setting this type of innovation More recently, other forms of decentralized finance have apart from innovation in other technologies that tend emerged. Some have tapped into the high gains in the to rely more heavily on traditional sources of finance value of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin to use them (e.g. venture capital). to finance the development of new solutions. Thus, the original innovators and investors in previous innovations ICOs were promoted as an equivalent, in the blockchain become the new investors in the new innovations. Many ecosystem, of the traditional IPOs. Through ICOs, the of these innovations have implemented decentralized original team of developers were selling tokens to finance governance mechanisms, as discussed in previous the development of the solution. Those tokens would chapters, and, thus, these new investors also become be required to use the application; thus, there was owners and potential innovators of the new solutions. IV. The potential impact of blockchain on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals 15
IV. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF BLOCKCHAIN ON THE ACHIEVEMENT OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
This chapter discusses how blockchain could impact where the greatest challenges for society lie, and who the Sustainable Development Goals. The discussion might be affected. focuses on how current visions that society attributes to blockchain could play out and what could be their It is important to note that all these visions are conditional impact on sustainable development. An interesting to technological changes, but more importantly, to prior example is the Internet. An initial meaning that changes in organizational and social habits, the economy, society placed in Internet technology was that it would social and (in some cases) political institutions. Therefore, create a “global village” that would spread equity, the discussion of the visions of blockchain does not justice, and democracy. These were expectations imply an agreement with these visions, or that they are based on technical characteristics of the Internet correct. It only means that these are some of the ways (cheap, instantaneous, two-way communication). These that society (or parts of the society) see the blockchain expectations did not realize, and the actual use of the and its future impact. What this chapter tries to assess Internet has a direct impact on sustainable development are these visions. What would need to happen for them to (positive and negative). In fact, similar hopes were materialize, who will benefit, what is the potential impact raised by the telegraph, railways, then the telephone. in the environment, what are the societal challenges, what One prediction about radical innovation may be that are the changes required in the current institutions, etc. some of its most important effects in the long term will be felt in areas where it was hardly expected to matter at the beginning (for example, the impact of internal A. EXAMPLES OF BLOCKCHAIN combustion engine on urbanism). Similarly, blockchain APPLICATIONS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO technology is in its infancy, and there many different THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS visions of how the technology is likely to develop, which products will result from this development and As with any technology, blockchain can be applied the potential consequences of their use. in solutions that contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. There are several This chapter is divided into the analysis of forward- examples of such applications, both in the context of looking scenarios and unintended consequences. In developed and developing countries. Table 1 presents terms of scenarios, it discusses existing visions of examples of blockchain-based solutions that contribute the technology, from the more modest to the more to each of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Many revolutionary. The chapter discusses what would take of these examples are still in the pilot phase or have for a particular vision to materialize within the time been deployed, but no assessment of actual impact frame of the Sustainable Development Goals (by 2030), is available. 16 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
Table 1 Examples of blockchain applications that contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals
Sustainable Development Digital identity against poverty Goal 1: No poverty In many countries, the poor do not have birth certificates or official identity documentation, (1.4 Equal rights to thus cannot have access to government services and subsidies. In Thailand in 2019, ownership, basic services, the Electronic Transactions Development Agency (ETDA) of the Ministry of Digital Economy technology and economic and Society embarked on the Digital ID Project to develop a nationwide digital identification resources) platform aiming to use blockchain-based timestamping to authenticate and verify the digital identities of Thai citizens.29 Sustainable Development Food voucher transfers with blockchain Goal 2: Zero hunger Blocks for Transport is a supply chain digitization initiative launched by WFP to increase the (2.1 End hunger and efficiency of the food transport between the Port of Djibouti through the Ethiopian supply ensure access by all chain corridor to destination warehouses. This initiative aims to deploy a private blockchain people, in particular, between the supply chain participants from whom authorization is needed. the poor and people in Building Blocks is another voucher delivery platform created by WFP to simplify voucher vulnerable situations) transactions by removing the need to create virtual custodial accounts with financial services providers. It is a large-scale deployment of blockchain and serves approximately 700,000 beneficiaries in two countries in 2020.30 Sustainable Development A modernized information-sharing mechanism in healthcare Goal 3: Good health and The health-care system of Cuba is working in collaboration with the Electronic Technology well-being Software Production Company (SOFTEL) for the management and exchange of medical (3.8 Access to quality information between different institutions in the country using blockchain technology. essential health-care In 2019, with the support of SOFTEL, the hospital Manuel Fajardo implemented digital services) medical records that save the results of laboratories, CT scans, x-rays and other tests performed to patients. This data will be available to any health entity in the country once a centralized medical history is created at the national level.31 Sustainable Development Receive and share official credentials securely and efficiently Goal 4: Quality education Blockcerts is an open standard for issuing, viewing and verifying blockchain-based (4.4 Increase the number credentials for academic and professional certifications, workforce development and civic of people with relevant records. These digital records are registered on a blockchain, cryptographically signed, skills for financial success) tamper-proof and shareable. The Goal is to enable a wave of innovation that gives individuals the capacity to possess and share their own official records. The initial design was based on prototypes developed at the MIT Media Lab and by Learning Machine, now Hyland Credentials. For ongoing development, this open-source project actively encourages other collaborators to get involved (Blockcerts, 2020). Sustainable Development Financial independence for women’s empowerment Goal 5: Gender equality VipiCash, a winner at the first “blockchain hackathon” coorganized by UN-Women and (5.1 End discrimination Innovation Norway in 2017, is an application that uses blockchain technology to enable against all women and secure money transfer among women so that they can have access and control over girls) their own money, independent of the male members of their family. The founder, a social innovator who grew up in a refugee camp, is working to create blockchain solutions to help empower women in humanitarian crisis situations (UN-Women, 2018). Sustainable Development Transparent and reliable water trading system Goal 6: Water and In Australia, Arup, a multinational firm, is working with the government of the State sanitation for all of New South Wales to build a proof-of-concept that uses blockchain technology to (6.4 Increase water use improve the water trading system, so it is fairer, as well as more reliable, transparent efficiency and ensure and efficient to manage (Arup, 2018). fresh water supplies)
29 Contribution from the Government of Thailand available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_ c30_B_Thailand_en.pdf. 30 Contribution from WFP available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_c41_B_WFP_en.pdf. 31 Contribution from the Government of Cuba available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_ c04_HB_Cuba_es.pdf. IV. The potential impact of blockchain on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals 17
Sustainable Development Blockchain-based solution for energy efficiency improvement Goal 7: Affordable and clean energy In the Russian Federation, the power company Rosseti together with Waves Enterprise and Alfa-Bank have implemented a pilot project called “Energy Accounting Using (7.3 Double the Blockchain Technology” to increase energy efficiency through blockchain use for electric improvement in energy power metering. The project ensures transparency of the system of interactions and data efficiency) exchange between electricity companies, as well as consumers of electricity.32
Sustainable Development Access to interest-free loans using blockchain Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth In April 2020, the Federal Tax Service (FTS) of the Russian Federation launched a blockchain platform named “MasterChain” to issue interest-free loans to SMEs. (8.10 Universal access to The platform has been designed to rapidly process business owners’ applications for banking, insurance and interest-free loans fo the payment of wages. It transfers digital values and information financial services) about them between participants and includes several services.33
Sustainable Development Blockchain-based cash register Goal 9: Industry, innovation and Latvia encourages e-government in all domains of Government and has also explored the infrastructure use of blockchain systems in the public sector and government-provided services. A pilot project in Latvia involves the implementation of the cash register reform that would (9.1: Develop sustainable, strengthen the supervisory capacity of the State Revenue Service (VID) by reducing resilient and inclusive unregistered cash flow and provide a proportionate financial and administrative burden infrastructure) for businesses to ensure compliance with the requirements set for them, thus reducing shadow economy. Blockchain-based cash register solution is also expected to ensure environmental sustainability by reducing paper use.34
Sustainable Development Improve schools’ Internet connectivity around the world Goal 10: Reduced inequalities The UNICEF Project Connect is a blockchain-based platform that aims to map every school in the world and their connectivity to help people understand what regions are lacking basic (10.3 Ensure equal connectivity, then eliminate the digital divide, increasing opportunity for every community. opportunity) The Goal is to provide real-time data assessing the quality of each school’s Internet connectivity, eventually creating an observable metric of society’s progress towards enabling access to information and opportunity for every community.35
Sustainable Development Blockchain makes cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable Goal 11: Sustainable cities and communities The State Railway of Thailand uses blockchain in the development of a dedicated communications system to increase the accuracy of its railway itinerary and to enhance (11.2 Affordable and the security of high-value parcels shipped through its logistics network. The projects of sustainable transport transportation and logistics ultimate goals are to deploy the blockchain technology to make systems) cities inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable where opportunities are provided for all, with access to basic services transportation and all of that in a sustainable way.36
Sustainable Development Blockchain-based seafood traceability and quality control Goal 12: Responsible consumption and Bitcliq, a technological SME, developed a blockchain-based e-marketplace for seafood production trading. This platform, named Lota Digital, allows fishers to register and post a sale for fishes and seafood on the platform. It provides a quality control service in the auction (12.2 Sustainable process and controls the trade agreements between the buyer and the seller with the use management and use of of blockchain.37 natural resources)
32 Contribution from the Government of the Russian Federation available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/ CSTD_2020-21_c25_B_Russia_en.pdf. 33 Ibid. 34 Contribution from the Government of Latvia available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_ c21_B_Latvia_en.pdf. 35 https://www.projectconnect.world 36 Contribution from the Government of Thailand available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_ c30_B_Thailand_en.pdf. 37 Contribution from the Government of Portugal available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020- 21_c23_B_Portugal_en.pdf. 18 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
Sustainable Development Low carbon tea project in Kenya (GLI-TEA) Goal 13: Climate action The project activities include a feasibility study and pilot testing on blockchain technology (13.3: Build knowledge for the Kenyan tea sector. The use of blockchain supports the traceability and transparency and capacity to meet of both production and emissions of the tea value chain. While increasing the trust among climate change) consumers and retailers, tea promoted as a “carbon sink” could give growers potential access to carbon markets, bringing forward economic incentives for small-scale tea producers.38
Sustainable Development Rewards for protecting biodiversity in Australia Goal 14: Below water The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in partnership with BioDiversity Solutions (14.2 Protect and restore Australia, has developed a prototype platform to facilitate the protection of environmental ecosystems) ecosystems, while also creating an alternative source of income for landowners and rewarding them for preserving biodiversity on their land and marine resources.The platform enables the creation of tradeable digital tokens named BioTokens, representing biodiversity credits for the Biodiversity Offsets Scheme of the government of New South Wales, within an efficient blockchain-enabled marketplace (Commbank, 2019).
Sustainable Development Incentive wildlife conservation in Namibia Goal 15: Life on land Wildlife Credits is a wildlife conservation incentive payment scheme developed and piloted (15.7 Eliminate poaching by Namibian community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) organizations. and trafficking of They offer conservancies direct payments for wildlife sightings on their territory and for protected species) maintaining habitat, mainly in the form of migration corridors. In locations where the rule of law is not upheld, and the banking infrastructure is poor, payments for ecosystem services (PES) schemes can corrupt, and the payments sometimes fail to reach the addressees. This solution tackles these issues (Oberhauser, 2019; Wildlife Credits, 2020).
Sustainable Development Transparency in transactions and immutability of asset registration Goal 16: Peace, justice and strong institutions The Bank of Thailand adopted blockchain technology to minimize interbank settlement fees, and 22 banks in Thailand have come together to formalize the Thailand Blockchain (16.9 Provide universal Community Initiative which will streamline letters of guarantee via a shared trade finance legal identity) platform. Blockchain enables transparency in transactions and the immutability of asset registration. Transparency ensures that commerce and trade documents, as well as other relevant data, are accessible to the public and available for criticism for better strategy- making in corporations and Governments to optimize trade and ensure standardization.39
Sustainable Development Blockchain platform to coordinate and trace international aid Goal 17: Partnerships for the goals United Kingdom Aid, in collaboration with the fintech startup Disberse, launched a pilot to test whether using blockchain could solve problems of transparency, speed, efficiency (17.3: Mobilize financial and mismanagement of aid funding across the financial supply chain. Financial flows from resources for developing donors represent huge sums of money but form complex networks of dependencies that countries) are hard to understand at each level. Such a traceability problem means that not enough is known about the complete system to be able to analyse its effectiveness. A blockchain- enabled platform is used to coordinate and trace international aid transactions using smart contracts, combined with a virtual money account that is linked to a registered banking provider. Together, this solution can improve the overall speed, cost, and transparency of funds across the financial supply chain.40
Source: UNCTAD, based on contributions from the Governments of Cuba, Thailand, the United Kingdom and from WFP, available at https://unctad.org/meeting/commission-science-and-technology-development-twenty-fourth-session.
38 Contribution from FAO available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020-21_c11_B_FAO_en.pdf. 39 Contribution from the Government of Thailand available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2020- 21_c30_B_Thailand_en.pdf. 40 Contribution from the Government of the United Kingdom available at https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/ CSTD_2020-21_c34_B_UK_en.pdf. IV. The potential impact of blockchain on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals 19
B. FORWARD-LOOKING SCENARIOS unaware) of the underlying technology used to power the applications that they use. 1. Decentralized applications overtake centralized ones Therefore, on the social side, it would require a shift in the perception of the potential risk of using centralized Some people see blockchain only as a tool for creating applications for the demand for these applications to decentralized applications that could efficiently replace truly grow organically. In the absence of that, the push existing centralized ones (those based on centralized for decentralized applications will have to continue to databases) or allow for the creation of new applications be supply-driven – by the developers and promoters that require decentralization. This development could of the technology. The consequence of that pattern is facilitate innovation for the Sustainable Development that it is less likely that blockchain innovation would Goals if blockchain could create solutions that otherwise incorporate the user’s views in the development of would not exist by not being technically, economically applications, which could make these solutions less or socially feasible as a centralized application. effective in addressing relevant problems and challenges faced by users. This vision of the technology and its use is the basic extrapolation of the most evident characteristic of the The blockchain technology has also to improve on the technology: its decentralized nature. However, it is performance front to match the current performance of centralized applications. At this moment, it is not clear important to note that blockchain is not the only way to if that would be achieved soon. Current applications create decentralized applications. In fact, decentralized in finance, online payment and management of value use of solutions is a common feature of the applications chains are usually based on use cases that focus on on the Internet. They are used in platforms such as properties such as freedom from central control and Facebook and Airbnb. These applications, despite the transparency, not on performance in terms of the decentralized use, still require centralized control of the number of transactions per unit of time. Perhaps more data, and this is what the blockchain technology can concerning, the use of proof-of-work in the blockchain decentralize. But when is decentralization a relevant as the consensus mechanism is extremely energy feature of the application? The question, indeed, inefficient, as discussed later in this chapter. The more boils down to when to use a central database or a applications that use the proof-of-work, the larger that decentralized ledger. problem will become, and the higher the probability that people will start to notice and reject to use a technology There are several heuristics proposed to guide the that puts the climate or the planet in danger. A clash development of blockchain applications and select between two strong calls by civil society may be seen: between a traditional database and a DLT (United the environmental call for action to address climate Nations Innovation Network, 2019). In these guidelines, change and the call for freedom from central controls usually, the decision for central databases is the most in the digital world. The latter seems to have the upper straightforward one. They recognize that most of the hand, currently. applications could be implemented with centralized databases, and only when the risk of centralized solutions If indeed decentralized applications overtake the current is considered too high by the users, is a blockchain landscape of centralized ones, what would be the impact solution proposed. on the Sustainable Development Goals? A first one was already mentioned above; if the current proof-of-work In the original use case of the technology, the bitcoin, this mechanism is the way that most of the applications use risk was the power of a central actor to shut down the to reach consensus (as currently is the case), then a world whole system or change the ledger and move away with using blockchain technology replacing centralized ones other people’s money. Given the financial implications, would have a severe negative impact of the environment, the solution justified the use of a DLT. However, this case and thus the Sustainable Development Goals. is weaker for a considerable number of applications that people seems to be comfortably using today. In The positive impacts are less clear. There is an expectation fact, users of most social networks are willing to trade of reduced costs of use of solutions that use blockchain, their right for data privacy in return for the benefits of due to potential reduction on transaction costs. However, being part of the network. As long as the application there is nothing in the technology that intrinsically requires works, users tend to be indifferent (and in fact, totally transaction costs to be low. In fact, the so-called “gas” 20 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
in Ethereum platform, which could be considered as blockchain would allow the poor to have access to retail the tax that users must pay for miners to register their banking services. This could be, for example, creating transactions in the blockchain, has reached incredibly blockchain versions of MPesa or digital microcredit higher levels in August and September 2020. At that services, but with lower fees. The argument is that by time, some users were paying $11 per transaction in gas not requiring a central authority to control or enable the fees (Toti, 2020). In the end, it is not clear if blockchain transactions, which would need to be remunerated for applications would be systematically more affordable for that service, there would be savings to be made for users than the centralized ones that they may replace. the users of blockchain-based financial applications. The use of blockchain would also make services like What about the claim that the technology may enable new MPesa and microcredit services more secure in certain decentralized solutions for the Sustainable Development aspects and more private (decentralized nature of the Goals, that otherwise could not be implemented using blockchain). Therefore, as a tool for financial inclusion, centralized databases? This seems to be a weaker applications using blockchain could complement the claim because arguably the roadblocks for implementing services provided by retail banks. technological solutions for the Sustainable Development Goals are usually not in the technologies themselves As countries look to implement the blockchain but on the access to these technologies, including technology to advance financial inclusion, the prospects availability, affordability, awareness, accessibility and of digital currency versus cryptocurrencies must be ability to use. The fact is that the people that would evaluated. Digital money has brought financial services benefit the most, those that are furthest behind in the to millions of people who previously did not have access Sustainable Development Goals, are also those that to traditional banking. The technology uses the ubiquity have less access to technological solutions. Inequality in of mobile phones to bring easy and fast digital cash terms of benefiting from technology reflects the existing transactions to new users. Whereas traditional banking inequalities in society, and can further exacerbate them has high barriers to entry and limited services outside of (UNCTAD, 2020). It is conceivable that blockchain could urban areas, digital money only requires SIM cards and be used in Sustainable Development Goal applications basic identification to register new users. Blockchain for which alternative centralized solutions are not technology has also seen similarly fast adoption in viable due to the lack of trust of potential users in the places where traditional banking cannot meet the motives, effectiveness, and reliability of the central (or needs of users. There are relative advantages to each incumbent) operator. However, that may also reflect system, and there is scope for both technologies to deeper inequalities in power relations which could be operate in tandem. difficult to address based only on technological solutions. Digital money such as MPesa in Kenya has the advantage If despite these weak prospects, blockchain technologies of being cheap and easy to use, operated with accessible replace centralized ones in technology solutions for the mobile apps and a distributed network of agents that Sustainable Development Goals, that would not trigger manage the cash to digital money exchange. Currently, the need for much change in the institutions that are cryptocurrencies have a higher technological barrier to in place to promote the use of ICT for development. entry. Easily operable and user-friendly applications are A push would still be required for universal access to yet not readily available. Cryptocurrencies also require the Internet and for the mobile devices that allow the higher digital literacy to operate than mobile banking, use of the applications. Similarly, Governments should and consensus-based algorithms take longer to verify continue to push for increasing the digital skills of the a transaction than mobile banking transfers. Currently, population. Laws and regulations related to data privacy for everyday usage, mobile banking is easier to use than and security would continue to be critically required. cryptocurrencies for domestic transactions.
2. Applications are developed for financial The fast adoption of digital money is not a deterrent to inclusion the adoption and use of cryptocurrencies. Each system has its strengths and can be used complementarily to Some people see blockchain as a tool that would serve different needs. As cryptocurrencies become allow people to have access to financial services at low more user-friendly, and if they succeed in becoming costs; banking those that are connected but are also less resource-intensive (e.g. computing power, energy), un-banked. The idea is that the potential for reduction in the current users of digital money may become the transaction fees through the decentralized nature of the cryptousers of the near future. IV. The potential impact of blockchain on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals 21
However, it is important to note that cryptocurrencies If, through the efforts of governments and other that are more suitable for financial inclusion are those stakeholders, the private sector develops blockchain that maintain relative price stability, the so-called stable innovations for financial inclusion, what would be the coins. If the price of the cryptocurrency is volatile, such impact on the Sustainable Development Goals? As as in the case of Bitcoin, it becomes less useful as a per the discussion above related to digital money mean of exchange. Mobile money such as in the MPesa and cryptocurrencies, the expectation could be that is usually pegged to the national fiat currency. To become blockchain applications could complement other digital an alternative to mobile money, cryptocurrencies should versions of inclusive financial applications. However, it have similar mechanisms. is not clear how much it would add beyond what the latter already offer. Interestingly, one of the initial visions for Bitcoin was to facilitate financial inclusion. However, its high volatility An exception is in the case of people in countries and deflationary tendency, in which the expectation of undergoing macroeconomic distress such as hyperin- holders of Bitcoin is that it will increase in value over flation. In that case, the decentralized nature of some time in comparison with any basket of products, makes blockchain applications would make these a safer Bitcoin ill-suited for day-to-day low-value transactions, as option for people to store and manage their money. it is further discussed later in section IV.B.4. In addition, its This situation is also discussed below in section IV.B.4. speculative appeal as a crypto version of gold (holder of value) has tilted the ownership of Bitcoin towards wealthy 3. Efficiency increases in international digital investors, in a pattern that is the opposite to what would transactions be expected from a tool for financial inclusion. Given that Bitcoin is the most successful cryptocurrency, it remains Some people consider that blockchain’s main role is for to be seen the emergence of cryptocurrencies that could increasing efficiency in digital transactions internationally. make substantial contributions to more inclusive finance. It would complement or replace interbanking and digital payment mechanisms. It could reduce the costs of The whole area of decentralized finance (DeFi) could remittances and payment transactions in supply chains also contribute to financial inclusion, with the creation and increase e-commerce. of decentralized versions of microfinance and other As they can be exchanged without banks, cryptocurrencies inclusive financial mechanisms. Currently, as mentioned do not impose the same transaction fees as digital in previous chapter, DeFi is going through a period currencies when exchanged cross-nationally. Sending of fast innovation. Most DeFi applications are related remittances through traditional channels can often to currency exchanges and yield farms – platforms be expensive. Remittance costs averaged 7 per cent that enable people to lend cryptocurrency in return for globally in the first quarter of 2019, and costs can be interests and fees. The users are, in their majority, people as high as 10 per cent in many African and Pacific with an above-average understanding of blockchain island countries.41 Regulation and lack of competition and finance. Many are developers themselves or DeFi are the usual culprits of high remittances fees. Often, “experts”. Therefore, DeFi innovation ecosystem is these transaction costs are flat fees which burden low- not targeting the development of applications for the income workers more. In these cases, digital money unbanked. Inclusiveness is not one of the drivers of such as MPesa may not be an option, given that such innovation in this domain. money is usually valid only for exchange with the local fiat currency. If cryptocurrencies become better trusted For the vision of blockchain technology as a tool for through standardization and regulation, they may reduce financial inclusion to materialize, there must be a push both transaction time and costs for remittances and for inclusive financial innovations. It is unlikely that the lead traditional channels to provide competitive prices. private sector will drive this process because it tends to focus first on solutions for wealthier users, who can Many firms in low- and lower-income developing countries pay the further development and deployment of the do not engage in international trade due to the lack of applications. Therefore, Governments, civil society “hard” currencies (such as United States dollars) to carry organizations and international organizations would need out international transactions, which is a result of the to steer the incentives for innovation towards inclusive lack of a diversified economy and exportable products. finance and away from financial innovations that focus on making profits out of speculation and the valorization 41 See https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/ of cryptoassets, in a casino economy. 2019/04/08/record-high-remittances-sent-globally-in-2018. 22 Harnessing rapid technological change for inclusive and sustainable development
In countries with balance of payments difficulties (e.g. drop in manifestations. It has three primary economic functions: exports, high import dependency, declining capital inflows, medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account rising foreign debt and sustained currency overvaluation), (Jevons, 1876). How well cryptocurrencies could serve Governments are forced to control the purchase of foreign those three functions would determine cryptocurrencies’ exchanges and prioritize some sectors considered of prospects for replacing fiat money. national interest. Firms in other sectors would not have the required foreign currency to buy imports (e.g. capital One measure of the extent to which a currency is goods and intermediary goods) that may be required for being used as a medium of exchange is the number them to engage in exports. of transactions performed in that currency. As noted above (see chapter I, section B.1), both in terms of The use of payment applications using blockchain performed transactions and the number of users, at could provide an alternative to firms to circumvent present, cryptocurrencies are far from challenging these restrictions. However, at the end of the day, the dominant usage of sovereign currencies and such application would only work against the goals of no Government accepts them as a legal tender. public policy; for example, to prioritize firms in some Another indicative measure of cryptocurrencies’ strategic sectors in the access to foreign currency to worth as a medium of exchange is the acceptance of promote social goals, such as the creation of higher- cryptocurrencies as a means of payment. Currently, wage jobs or economic diversification and structural there are a limited number of merchants worldwide transformation. (predominantly, but not exclusively, Internet-based vendors) that accept cryptocurrencies as a means Firms would still need to exchange cryptocurrencies of payment. Some examples are Microsoft, which to the local fiat currency to be able to pay workers, accepts Bitcoin for use in its online Xbox Store since suppliers, and taxes, but if there is a decentralized 2014; Overstock, an online shop with furniture and marketplace for the exchange of cryptocurrency and home appliances, which accepts not only Bitcoin but fiat currency, that exchange could be done. However, also multiple other altcoins; Whole Foods, an Amazon- there is always the possibility of the government to owned food retailer; Expedia, an online travel booking regulate the use of cryptocurrencies and restrict the agency; Newegg, an online shop with electronics; exchange to local fiat currencies. Shopify, an e-commerce platform; and Coincards, which is a platform that exchange cryptocurrencies If indeed blockchain is used for international payment for gift cards that can be spent at retailers such as and digital transactions, what would be the impact on Apple, Amazon, Adidas, Walmart and Uber (Tuwiner, the Sustainable Development Goals? Increasing trade 2020). Thus, some cryptocurrencies are serving as a and transport efficiency and reducing costs has the medium of exchange, although their acceptance is potential to increase trade. Who benefits from that currently limited. increase still depends on many other factors such as the productive structure of countries and the policies in place to harness trade for development. If most people Another property of money is the store of value. in a low-income developing country continues to live out How good a fiat currency (such as cryptocurrency) of subsistence agriculture, few cash crops and low-wage is in storing value depends on the monetary policy low-technology manufacturing, then increasing trade associated with that currency. If too much of it is does not change the structure of their economy, and created (faster than the average productivity increase any gain is likely to be passed to foreign clients as lower of sectors of the economy), the cryptocurrency will be prices. The challenges for developing countries to fairly inflationary. Over time, more of it will be required to buy integrate into and benefit from globalization would remain the same basket of products. The cryptocurrency will in a future in which blockchain is the main technology fail in the criteria of a store of value. If, on the other used for international digital transactions. Therefore, the hand, too little of the currency is created, as compared impact of blockchain on sustainable development under with the average productivity increase in the economy, this scenario, should not be expected to be significant. then the cryptocurrency will be deflationary. Less of it will be needed overtime to purchase the same basket 4. Cryptocurrency replaces fiat money of products. The cryptocurrency will be a good store (and increase) of value, but people will prefer not to This is the vision that blockchain cryptocurrencies use it for day-to-day transactions as it will have much could complement or replace fiat currencies. Money more value in the future. Therefore, the currency may has been in existence throughout history in different fail in the criteria of being a good medium of exchange. IV. The potential impact of blockchain on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals 23
Taking Bitcoin as an illustrative example, it seems a mined, the reward was halved to 25 bitcoins; on 9 July very good store of value, but ill-suited as a medium of 2016, after another 210,000 blocks were mined, the exchange. On 22 May 2010, the first real-world transaction reward halved to 12.5 bitcoins per block; and once was recorded in which Bitcoin served the function of a again, on 11 May 2020, the reward was halved to medium of exchange, at a rate of US$0.0025 by buying 6.25 bitcoins. The reward is programmed to halve until two pizzas in Florida (United States) for 10,000 BTC the incremental addition of coins disappears around (CoinDesk, 2014). Those two pizzas cost the equivalent the year 2140 peaking at the supply limit of 21 million to over US$100,000,000 by the exchange rate between Bitcoins.43 Figure 4 shows the actual supply growth Bitcoin and the United States dollar in October 2020. of Bitcoins and its growth rate. Actual numbers are shown for the years 2009–2020, while projections An asset’s worth as a store of value rests on people’s are used for all other years (Bank of England, 2014). beliefs regarding its future supply and demand (Bank of England, 2014). In the case of cryptocurrencies, this While the supply growth is fixed and predictable, is partly determined by the algorithm that implements prospects for future demand, which is essentially the cryptocurrency in the blockchain and partly by market-determined, are far less certain. As the expectations that people have related to that cryptocurrencies lack any intrinsic demand (for use currency. Taking Bitcoin again as an example, in the in the production or consumption) and any form supply side, a new block in Bitcoin blockchain is created of central authority, an opinion about their future every 10 minutes. By solving the cryptographic puzzle demand should largely rest on (a) a belief about their associated with the creation of a new block, the miner future use as media of exchange and (b) a belief that is rewarded with newly issued Bitcoins – the amount they will continue to remain in demand even further of the reward halves every 210,000 blocks, or roughly into the future (Bank of England, 2014). The market every four years. For the first 210,000 blocks, the reward value of cryptocurrencies will rise sharply when associated with each block was 50 bitcoins. Starting on their adoption increases, while large liquidations of 28 November 2012, after the first 210,000 blocks were holdings will cause the price to plummet.
Figure 4 Bitcoin: Money supply and inflation