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Hyundai Glovis Industrials / Korea 086280 KS Industrials / Korea 2 April 2015 Hyundai Glovis Hyundai Glovis Target (KRW): 240,000 Upside: 13.5% 086280 KS 2 Apr price (KRW): 211,500 Initiation: plenty of cars left on the carrier 1 Buy 2 Outperform (initiation) • The recent reduction in the major shareholder’s stake should 3 Hold lead to a rise in captive business from HMG longer term 4 Underperform • A rise in PCC’s coverage ratio for its overseas logistics business 5 Sell should provide impetus for earnings from 2016 onwards • Initiating coverage with an Outperform (2) rating and 12-month target price of KRW240, 000, based on a 2015E PER of 15.6x How do we justify our view? guidance of 4.3% YoY) for 2015, due global major peer average of 15.6x primarily to weak complete knock- and lower than the middle of its down (CKD) shipments YoY amid past-3-year range of 12.6-23.2x. the sluggish global shipment outlook for HMG. ■ Risks Sung Yop Chung The main risks to our call are weaker (82) 2 787 9157 However, we expect Glovis to record shipments from HMG and a rapid [email protected] stronger revenue growth from 2016 appreciation of the KRW against the onwards, driven by: 1) the coverage USD. ratio of PCC transportation for HMG ■ Investment case rising to 75% in 2017E, 2) a rise in We initiate coverage of Hyundai third-party logistics (TPL) Share price performance Glovis (Glovis), a logistics unit of operations for its overseas car (KRW) (%) Hyundai Motor Group (HMG) (Not 330,000 130 transportation business to 55% in listed), with an Outperform (2) 297,500 118 2017, from 45% in 2014, and 3) rating and 12-month target price of 265,000 105 stronger CKD revenue growth with KRW240,000. Following the Chung 232,500 93 the start-up of Kia Motors’ (Kia) 200,000 80 Family’s recent selldown of its stake (000270 KS, KRW44,300, Hold [3]) Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 from 43.39% to 29.99%, we see a greenfield plant in Mexico. Hyund Glo (LHS) Relative to KOSPI (RHS) high probability of Glovis’s coverage ratio of pure car carriers (PCC) for Meanwhile, we believe Glovis’s HMG rising from 2016 onwards, 12-month range 211,500-327,500 market value will remain important Market cap (USDbn) 7.19 from 40% currently. for ES Chung to fund a purchase of 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 77.85 Hyundai Mobis’s (Mobis) (012330 Shares outstanding (m) 38 This block deal could give HMG the Major shareholder ES CHUNG (23.3%) KS, KRW240,500, Buy [1]) stake impetus it needs to conduct more either from Kia or Hyundai Steel business with Glovis in the next few Financial summary (KRW) (HS) (004020 KS, KRW74,500, years, given that the owners’ stake, Year to 31 Dec 15E 16E 17E Outperform [2]). Of the current Revenue (bn) 14,914 16,589 18,019 at just less than 30%, now meets the value of KRW2.99tn for ES Chung’s Operating profit (bn) 708 835 914 Korea Fair Trade Commission’s holdings in listed/not listed Net profit (bn) 576 688 762 (FTC) regulatory requirements. Core EPS (fully-diluted) 15,364 18,337 20,321 companies of HMG, his Glovis stake EPS change (%) 7.4 19.4 10.8 has the highest value at KRW1.85tn. ■ Catalysts Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 2.0 4.4 6.0 PER (x) 13.8 11.5 10.4 Glovis shares have been driven by ■ Valuation Dividend yield (%) 1.0 1.3 1.4 revenue growth. From 2011-14, the We initiate coverage of Glovis with a DPS 2,200 2,700 3,000 company’s revenue rose at a CAGR PBR (x) 2.4 2.0 1.7 12-month target price of of 13.4%. However, we forecast EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 7.3 6.9 KRW240,000, based on a 2015E revenue growth of just 7.1% YoY (vs. ROE (%) 18.9 18.9 17.8 PER of 15.6x, in line with the 2015E Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 23 Industrials / Korea 086280 KS 2 April 2015 Contents Plenty of cars left on the carrier ..................................................................................................... 6 Company description .................................................................................................................. 6 Logistics: expansion through shipping ....................................................................................... 8 Distribution: CKD is the cash cow ............................................................................................. 11 Glovis’s market value has more potential to rise till 2017 ........................................................ 12 Valuation and recommendation ................................................................................................ 13 Key risks to our call .................................................................................................................... 16 - 2 - Industrials / Korea 086280 KS 2 April 2015 1 Buy How do we justify our view? 2 Outperform (initiation) 3 Hold Growth outlook 4 Underperform Valuation 5 Sell Earnings revisions Growth outlook Glovis: revenue and operating profit (2012-17E) We forecast 2015-17 revenue and operating profit (KRWbn) (%) CAGRs of 9.9% and 13.6%, backed by: 1) stronger CKD 20,000 5.2 18,019 5.4 16,589 revenue growth from 2016 onwards, following the start 14,914 5.2 13,922 of production at Kia’s Mexico greenfield plant in 2016, 15,000 12,861 11,746 5.1 5.0 2) a rise in long-term contracts for bulk carriers that 5.0 5.0 could generate KRW300bn per year over the period, 3) 10,000 4.6 4.8 4.7 a rise in the coverage ratio for PCCs for HMG to 75% by 4.6 2017, from 40% currently, through a rise in its PCC 5,000 4.4 fleet to 78 vessels (owned: 40/chartered: 38), which 614 637 645 708 835 914 could generate more than KRW2tn per year from 2016 0 4.2 onwards, from KRW1.52tn in 2014, and 4) a rise in the 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E TPL revenue portion for its overseas car transportation Revenue Operating profit Operating profit margin (RHS) business to 55% in 2017, from 45% in 2014. Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Glovis: event-driven analysis Valuation (x) Since the first attempt by MK Chung and ES Chung to Apr 2007 Oct 2013 Apr 2014 28 Kia Motors Announced '2020 Glovis Hyundai-amco merged with partly sell off their combined stake on 13 January 2015, started operating business plan (vision)' Hyudai Engineering Glovis shares are down 29.5%, triggering market 24 Slovakia plant concerns about weaker top-line growth prospects, 20 underpinned by its conservative guidance for 2015. 16 Shares of Glovis are now trading at a 2015E PER of 12 13.8x, vs. both a global logistics peer average of 15.6x Dec 2007 Jan 2013 Jan 2015 8 PCC contracts between Korea's FTC introduced Chung family failed to divest and their own past-3-year range of 12.6-23.2x. EUKOR-HMG terminated antitrust policy 13.4% stake through block deal 4 As the regulatory risks from the FTC have dissipated 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PER +1 STD +2 STD with the major shareholder’s stake having fallen below -1 STD -2 STD Average 30%, we believe Glovis’s top-line growth trajectory is Source: Fnguide, Daiwa intact. Thus, we envisage its valuation normalising over the next 12 months. Glovis: earnings revision cycle Earnings revisions We see Glovis’s upward earnings revision cycle (KRW) (x) resuming from 2Q15 onwards, as we expect a rise in 20,000 24 HMG’s global shipments. And we look for the upward 20 earnings revision cycle to become stronger from 2016 15,000 onwards, driven by: 1) the coverage ratio of PCC 16 transportation for HMG possibly rising to 75% in 2017E, 10,000 from 40% currently, and 2) a rise in the revenue 12 5,000 contribution from TPL for its overseas car 8 transportation to 55% in 2017E, from 45% in 2014. 0 4 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 FY15 EPS (LHS) FY15 PER (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa - 3 - Industrials / Korea 086280 KS 2 April 2015 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Domestic's gross profit margin (%) n.a. 8.0 7.9 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.1 Overseas' gross profit margin (%) n.a. 6.8 3.8 7.4 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.0 CKD's gross profit margin (%) n.a. 9.6 9.2 9.9 9.4 9.8 9.7 9.8 Used Car's gross profit margin (%) n.a. 7.0 6.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Others Logistics' gross profit margin n.a. n.a. 5.0 1.1 (0.8) (0.4) 0.9 0.4 (%) Profit and loss (KRWbn) Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Domestic 0 1,150 1,275 1,247 1,157 1,088 1,014 940 Overseas 0 2,377 5,148 5,498 6,006 6,519 7,467 8,234 Other Revenue 7,233 6,019 5,323 6,116 6,759 7,306 8,108 8,845 Total Revenue 7,233 9,546 11,746 12,861 13,922 14,914 16,589 18,019 Other income 00000000 COGS (6,620) (8,744) (10,763) (11,846) (12,902) (13,819) (15,367) (16,693) SG&A (292) (340) (369) (379) (375) (386) (387) (412) Other op.expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating profit 321 462 614 637 645 708 835 914 Net-interest inc./(exp.) (8) (1) (4) (1) (12) (14) (13) (11) Assoc/forex/extraord./others 41 25 58 66 79 44 60 74 Pre-tax profit 353 486 668 702 711 739 882 977 Tax (87) (127) (170) (221) (175) (163) (194) (215) Min.
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