Copyright by Kenichi Yoshida 2020
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Copyright by Kenichi Yoshida 2020 The Thesis Committee for Kenichi Yoshida Certifies that this is the approved version of the following Thesis: DYNAMIC DEMAND PREDICTION MODEL AND APPLICATION FOR COMPETITIVE TRANSPORTATION MARKET APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Carlos H. Caldas, Supervisor Minhyuk Jung DYNAMIC DEMAND PREDICTION MODEL AND APPLICATION FOR COMPETITIVE TRANSPORTATION MARKET by Kenichi Yoshida Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering The University of Texas at Austin May 2020 Acknowledgements I would like to thank my academic advisor, Dr. Carlos H. Caldas, for all the guidance and encouragement throughout this research. All of his insightful advice during my academic years at UT are highly appreciated. My sincere thanks also go to Dr. Minhyuk Jung. Your advice and support are very significant, and your feedback is indispensable to the development of my thesis and its successful completion. Finally, I want to express my gratitude towards my family for all the love and support during my graduate studies at UT. Without you, this degree would have been too challenging to achieve. iv Abstract DYNAMIC DEMAND PREDICTION MODEL AND APPLICATION FOR COMPETITIVE TRANSPORTATION MARKET Kenichi Yoshida, MSE The University of Texas at Austin, 2020 Supervisor: Carlos H. Caldas Despite the importance of transportation demand forecasting, predicted demand for transportation service in the project feasibility phase is barely reached in the operation phase due to optimism bias, strategic bias, and uncertainty. Although many researchers have made efforts to predict transportation demand, competitive market dynamics were neglected in most demand forecasting methods, while factors affecting the demand are interactive, complex, and dynamic. The objective of this thesis is to propose a novel competitive dynamic model for transportation demand prediction. The System Dynamics (SD) model was developed and validated with three datasets: New York City, Tokyo 23 Wards, and Namma Metro in India. The results demonstrate the validity and applicability of the model to both city-level and project-level transportation demand prediction with high accuracy. After the model was validated, the model was employed to predict transportation demand and analyze the project's financial feasibility for the Pune Metro PPP project with different parameters in different conditions. In addition to the viability gap funding (VGF) at the initial stage, the minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) was added as another v government subsidy for improving project feasibility, and both the government and the project cash were compared. The results show that the optimal financial structure depends on project profitability. The model developed in this thesis is likely to help decision-makers make more informed decisions. vi Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ iv List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures .................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................1 1.1 Research Background ...........................................................................................1 1.2 Problem Statement ................................................................................................2 1.3 Research Objectives ..............................................................................................3 1.4 Contributions ........................................................................................................4 1.5 Structure of this Thesis .........................................................................................4 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................6 2.1 Market Dynamics ..................................................................................................6 2.2 Market Dynamics in Transportation Market ........................................................7 2.3 Main factors affecting demand .............................................................................9 2.4 Travel Time Costs ...............................................................................................13 2.5 Modeling Methods ..............................................................................................14 CHAPTER 3: MODEL DEVELOPMENT .......................................................................16 3.1 Model Conceptualization ....................................................................................16 3.2 Model Formulation .............................................................................................16 3.2.1 Model Formulation for Transportation Market ....................................16 3.2.2 Model Formulation for Project Cash Flow ................................................27 vii CHAPTER 4: MODEL VALIDATION ............................................................................33 4.1 Experiment Description ......................................................................................33 4.2 Case Study 1: Demand Prediction of New York City ........................................34 4.3 Case Study 2: Demand Prediction of Tokyo 23 Wards ......................................40 4.4 Case Study 3: Demand Prediction of Namma Metro Purple Line in Bangalore, India ..................................................................................................44 4.5 Results .................................................................................................................49 CHAPTER 5: MODEL APPLICATION ...........................................................................51 5.1 Model application to Pune Metro Line 3 ............................................................51 5.2 Experiment 1: Without population increase .......................................................58 5.3 Experiment 2: With Population Increase ............................................................64 5.4 Experiment 3: With Population Increase and Events .........................................71 5.5 Experiment 4: Financial Feasibility Analysis .....................................................79 CHAPTER 6: DISCUSSION .............................................................................................87 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................90 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..............................................................................................................95 viii List of Tables Table 1: Types of data investigated in the system dynamics model for the competitive market ........................................................................................21 Table 2: Types of data investigated in the system dynamics model for the project finance ...........................................................................................................31 Table 3: Demography information and weights for simulation by case ...................33 Table 4: Attributes of each transportation mode by case ............................................34 Table 5: Estimated data of commuters in NYC by mode from 2006 to 2017 ............35 Table 6: Simulation results from 2006 to 2017 in NYC case .....................................38 Table 7: Data of commuters in Tokyo 23 Wards by mode in 1998 and 2008 ............40 Table 8: Simulation results in Tokyo 23 Wards case ..................................................43 Table 9: Data of public and private transportation mode distribution in Bangalore city and the study corridor ............................................................................45 Table 10: Information of the study corridor by automobile type ................................45 Table 11: Details of travel information by road ............................................................46 Table 12: Comparison of simulation results and actual data by year ...........................49 Table 13: Project initial costs and expenses ..................................................................52 Table 14: Example of financial structure ......................................................................53 Table 15: Traffic volume by road .................................................................................53 Table 16: Travel speed at study corridor .......................................................................55 Table 17: Attributes of rail mode ..................................................................................56 Table 18: Distribution of auto mode .............................................................................57 Table 19: Distribution of transportation modes ............................................................57 Table 20: Details of capacity increase events ...............................................................71 ix Table 21: Comparison of simulation results by event ...................................................78 Table 22: Details of parameter variation experiments ..................................................80