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Study on the Cost and Contribution of the Rail Sector | Final Report Study on the Cost and European Commission Contribution of the Rail Directorate General for Mobility and Transport Sector Final Report Our ref: 22783801 September 2015 Client ref: MOVE/B2/2014-761 Prepared by Steer Davies Gleave Study on the Cost and European Commission Contribution of the Rail Directorate General for Mobility and Transport Sector Final Report Our ref: 22783801 September 2015 Client ref: MOVE/B2/2014-761 . Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Davies Gleave European Commission Directorate 28-32 Upper Ground General for Mobility and Transport London SE1 9PD Rue de Mot 28 B-1040 Brussels Belgium +44 20 7910 5000 www.steerdaviesgleave.com The information and views set out in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material for European Commission Directorate General for Mobility and Transport. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer Davies Gleave has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer Davies Gleave shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer Davies Gleave for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Study on the Cost and Contribution of the Rail Sector | Final Report Contents 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................................................... 1 Study objectives and methodology .............................................................................................. 2 Organisation of this report ........................................................................................................... 4 2 Data collection ................................................................................................................... 5 Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Data collection .............................................................................................................................. 7 Addressing data limitations and gaps ......................................................................................... 10 Summary of rail industry characteristics and trends .................................................................. 11 3 Key performance indicators .............................................................................................. 26 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 26 Selection of KPIs.......................................................................................................................... 26 KPI analysis ................................................................................................................................. 29 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 41 4 Clustering analysis ............................................................................................................ 42 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 42 Clustering principles ................................................................................................................... 42 Clustering methodology ............................................................................................................. 44 5 Efficiency gap analysis ...................................................................................................... 55 Data Envelopment Analysis ........................................................................................................ 55 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 62 6 Scenario assessment ......................................................................................................... 63 Scenario definition ...................................................................................................................... 63 Estimating economic impacts ..................................................................................................... 67 Core scenario .............................................................................................................................. 72 Supplementary scenario analysis ............................................................................................... 75 7 Policy implications ............................................................................................................ 80 The current policy context .......................................................................................................... 80 The need for industry restructuring ........................................................................................... 81 September 2015 | i Study on the Cost and Contribution of the Rail Sector | Final Report Potential policy development ..................................................................................................... 83 Recommendations for further work ........................................................................................... 85 Figures Figure 1.1: The analytical framework ........................................................................................... 4 Figure 2.1: Trends in input indicators (2007 = 100) .................................................................... 12 Figure 2.2: Trends in output indicators (2007 = 100) ................................................................. 13 Figure 2.3: Trends in financial indicators (2007 = 100, adjusted for HICP) ................................ 15 Figure 2.4: Cost and contribution of the EU rail sector (2012) ................................................... 17 Figure 2.5: Fare revenue per passenger kilometre (2012) ......................................................... 18 Figure 2.6: Freight revenue per tonne kilometre (2012) ............................................................ 19 Figure 2.7: Operating costs per train kilometre by Member State (2012) ................................. 20 Figure 2.8: Passenger and freight activity (2012) ....................................................................... 21 Figure 2.9: Train km per inhabitant (2012) ................................................................................. 22 Figure 2.10: Passenger km per inhabitant (2012) ...................................................................... 23 Figure 2.11: Freight tonne kilometres per unit GDP (2012) ....................................................... 23 Figure 2.12: Change in Passenger Rail Mode Share (2003 to 2012) ........................................... 24 Figure 2.13: Change in Rail Freight Mode Share (2003 to 2012) ................................................ 25 Figure 3.1: Change in Track Utilisation (2007 to 2012) – train kilometres per track kilometre . 30 Figure 3.2: Change in Passenger Train Utilisation (2007 to 2012) – passenger kilometres per passenger train kilometre ........................................................................................................... 31 Figure 3.3: Change in Freight Train Utilisation (2007 to 2012) – freight tonne kilometres per freight train kilometre ................................................................................................................ 32 Figure 3.4: Track utilisation and population density (2012) – logarithmic scale ........................ 34 Figure 3.5: Track utilisation and passenger train utilisation (2012) – logarithmic scale ............ 35 Figure 3.6: Track utilisation and freight train utilisation (2012) – logarithmic scale .................. 36 Figure 3.7: Passenger track utilisation and freight track utilisation (2012) – logarithmic scale . 37 Figure 3.8: Passenger track utilisation and freight track utilisation (2012) – absolute figures .. 38 Figure 3.9: Cost efficiency and passenger km (2012) – logarithmic scale .................................. 39 Figure 3.10: Subsidy and revenue (2012) – logarithmic scale .................................................... 40 Figure 4.1: Illustration of clustering analysis (2012) ................................................................... 45 Figure 4.2: Dendrogram and nested cluster examples ............................................................... 47 September 2015 | ii Study on the Cost and Contribution of the Rail Sector | Final Report Figure 4.3: Relative
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