JPPPI Brainstorming Series The Triangular Relationship of Jerusalem Washington NorthAmericanJewry October 12-13, 2009 THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY PLANNING INSTITUTE (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. www.jpppi.org.il THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY PLANNING INSTITUTE Givat Ram Campus • [email protected] (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. Tel: 972-2-5633356 • Fax: 972-2-5635040 Background Papers Partners and Members Board of Directors and Professional JPPPI MAIN PUBLICATIONS of the General Meeting: Guiding Council: The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute – Annual Assessment 2004-2005 The Jewish People Between Thriving And Decline JPPPI Staff and Contributors 2005 To succeed, large resources, judicious coping with critical decisions and careful crafting Sandy Baklor Chairman of long-term grand-policies are needed. The full volume contains analyses of the major communities around the world and in-depth assessments of significant topics. Lester Crown and Charles Goodman Stuart Eizenstat on behalf of the Crown-Goodman family Between Thriving and Decline – The Jewish People 2004, Executive Report, Annual Associate Chairman Assessment No. 1 JPPPI Staff and Contributors 2004 Jack Kay Leonid Nevzlin Facing a Rapidly Changing World – The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Executive David Koschitzky Report, Annual Assessment No. 2, 2005 JPPPI Staff and contributors 2005 Members of the board as Chair of the UJA Federation of Greater Ya’acov Amidror Major Shifts – Threats and Opportunities – The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Toronto Charles Burson Executive Report, Annual Assessment No. 3, 2006 JPPPI Staff and contributors 2006 Hagai Meirom Irwin Cotler Societal Aspects – The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Executive Report, Annual as Treasurer of JAFI Sami Friedrich Assessment No. 4, 2007, JPPPI Staff and Contributors 2007 Sanford Neuman Dan Halperin Steve Hoffman The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Executive Report No. 5, 2008, with a Special as Board Chair of the Jewish Federation of Section on Women in Jewish Society JPPPI Staff and Contributors 2008 Arlene Kaufman St. Louis Morlie Levin Institut de Planification d’une Politique pour le Peuple Juif, Rapport Annuel du JPPPI Irina Nevzlin-Cogan Judit Bokser Liwerant 2005/2006, Le Peuple Juif en 2005/2006, Entre Renaissance et Declin, Special edition in on behalf of the Nadav Foundation Isaac Molho French, JPPPI Staff and Contributors 2006 Richard L. Pearlstone Steven Nasatir A Strategic Plan for the Strengthening of Jerusalem, JPPPI Staff 2007 as Chairman of the JAFI Board of Governors Jehuda Reinharz John Ruskay China and the Jewish People: Old Civilizations in a New Era Dr. Shalom Salomon Wald 2004. Charles Ratner Suzanne Last Stone This is the first strategic document in the series: Improving the Standing of the Jewish People in Emerging Superpowers Without a Biblical Tradition. John M. Shapiro Aharon Yadlin as President of the UJA Federation of New York Position Paper: Global Jewish People Forum JPPPI Staff 2005 Interim President The position paper examines president Moshe Katsav’s initiative to establish a “Second House” and makes a number of recommendations. Natan Sharansky Steve Hoffman as Chairman of JAFI Executive Soft Power – A National Asset Dr. Sharon Pardo Saul Silver Incoming President Today’s global changes in the international arena require more consideration of soft assets possessed by the Jewish People. Prepared for the 2005 Herzliya Conference. as Chairman of the JAFI Budget and Finance Aharon Ze’evi Farkash Committee Strategic Paper: Confronting Antisemitism – A Strategic Perspective Prof. Yehezkel Dror Director General 2004 Our thanks to the UJA Federation of New York, Avinoam Bar-Yosef The increasing ability of fewer to easily kill more and more makes new antisemitism into a lethal danger that requires comprehensive, multi-dimensional and long-term counter-strategies. the UJA Federation of Toronto, the Jewish Projects Coordinator Federation of St. Louis, the Jewish Federation of Alert Paper No. 2: Jewish Demography – Facts, Outlook, Challenges Prof. Sergio Greater Los Angeles, the Jewish Federation of Ita Alcalay DellaPergola 2003 Metropolitan Chicago and Alex Grass z”l for their There may be fewer Jews in the world than commonly thought, and if the current demographic trends continue unchanged, there might be even fewer in the future. support of this project. Alert Paper No. 1: New Anti-Jewishness Prof. Irwin Cotler 2003 The new Anti-Jewishness consists of discrimination against, or denial of, the right of the Jewish people to live, as an equal member of the family of nations. A Road Map for the Jewish People for 2025 JPPPI Staff 2006 Published in the context of the Alternative Futures for the Jewish People 2025 project. Prepared for the Herzliya Conference. JPPPI Brainstorming Series The Triangular Relationship of Jerusalem Washington NorthAmericanJewry October 12-13, 2009 Editors: Rami Tal • Barry Geltman THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY PLANNING INSTITUTE (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. Jerusalem, October 2009, Tishrey 5770 Contents: PART A: Introduction 7 By Stuart E. Eizenstat 2009 – Change of Government in the USA and in Israel: Are We 11 Entering a New Era with Consequences that could Affect the Future of the Jewish People? By Avinoam Bar-Yosef Developments in the Geopolitical Arena and their Possible 27 Implications for Israel and the Jewish People: 2009 By Avi Gil ‘Arevut, Partnership and Responsibility 45 By Meir Kraus, Yehudah Mirsky, Dov Maimon and Yogev Karasenty PART B: Schedule 53 Participants 55 3 Part A INTRODUCTION By Stuart E. Eizenstat 2009 has seen great challenges facing the Jewish People and the Jewish future. In the Diaspora, there is rampant disaffiliation, with increased intermarriage rates, with low rates of conversion by the non-Jewish spouse, and low birth rates. Jewish assimilation into the mainstream of American life is a challenge to Jewish identity. Among many young Jews, ties to Israel are tenuous. The internal non-Jewish, American landscape is also changing, with the old elites, strongly supportive of Israel, giving way to a new generation of leaders from a more diverse ethnic and racial background. Our largest state, California, already has a non-white majority, and by mid-century, that will be true for the United States as a whole. The growing Hispanic and Asian populations are not per se antagonistic to Israel, but they have little connection to the Jewish State. The Diaspora-Israel relationship is especially challenged by the fact that Diaspora Jews tend to be politically liberal, while the Israeli public and government, facing years of bombs from Hamas and the lack of a strong Palestinian peace partner, has become more conservative. The U.S.-Israel relationship is also at an important point, and this is at the center of the Glen Cove brainstorming discussions, the first such gathering of my tenure as chair of the JPPPI. I believe strongly that President Obama and his entire leadership team is as strongly pro-Israel as any of its predecessors, although public opinion polls in Israel seem to indicate an inaccurate doubt about this. But the Obama Administration sees the need to strengthen ties to the moderate Islamic world, and building a moderate coalition to confront Iran, as being a central foreign policy goal, and believes that achieving peace between Israel and the Palestinians is a seminal part of the puzzle to achieve this goal. There is no support in the Obama Administration for Israel expanding settlements further into the West Bank, a key feature supported by important elements of the Israeli government, and little such support among the vast majority of American and Diaspora Jews. JPPPI has held several conferences in the United States, at the Wye Plantation, and in Israel, including the Conference in May 2008, under the auspices of President Shimon Peres coinciding with Israel’s 60th anniversary as a nation. JPPPI has also developed a number of important papers since its formation in 2003. 7 The seminal papers in this publication are all with the theme of strengthening the triangular relationship of Jerusalem, Washington, and North American Jewry. I would like to see it broadened to include the entire Diaspora, particularly European Jewry, which faces special challenges with the growth of the Muslim population on the Continent, and this will be one of the main subjects of JPPPI’s 2010 conference. Avinoam Bar-Yosef, the founding director of JPPPI, stresses in his paper, “2009-Change of Government in the USA and in Israel: Are We Entering a New Era with Consequences that Could Affect the Future of the Jewish People?”, the dilemma facing American Jewry with the different perspectives on key issues—such as settlements, and the priority to be given the Israeli-Palestinian conflict compared to the Iranian threat—by the new governments in the U.S. and Israel, with a conservative government in Jerusalem and liberal one in Washington. Bar-Yosef stresses the challenges in maintaining traditional support among American Jews, with a younger generation removed from the Holocaust and the events surrounding Israel’s early decades, and is increasingly focused its American identity. Avi Gil’s piece in this publication, “Developments in the Geopolitical Arena and their Possible Implications for Israel and the Jewish People”, explores the challenges posed by Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and how they impact on Israel, the United States, and Diaspora Jews, particularly in America. He perceptively examines how the current economic crisis impacts on the standing of the U.S., Israel’s major strategic partner, and how the new Administration is dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat, Iraq, the growing threat from the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He emphasizes how Iran’s efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, dramatized by the recent revelations by President Obama of a secret nuclear facility run by the Revolutionary Guards, can impact on the entire Middle East, and the choices it imposes on Israel and the United States.